Trevor Richards
P
Lehigh Valley IronPigs
+0.3
WAR
Age 33
RHP
6'2" / 205 lbs
AAA
peak 0.3 · 2026
ERA4.58
FIP4.46
xFIP4.88
SIERA4.40
K%23.5%
BB%10.2%
K-BB%13.3%
IP60
trajectory · 10 yrs
0.3peak
2026
K†5555
FB Velo
p1992.3
Whiff%
p3723.4%
K%
p5122.4%
xwOBA vs
p610.301
FB (59%)
SL-1.0 (15%)
CH-1.8 (27%)
Career (MLE) + Projections
Park-neutral MLB-equivalent. MiLB translated via MLE factors. FIP-based WAR vs replacement FIP=5.3 (SP) / 4.95 (RP, <80 IP). FIP+ = runs above league-avg FIP · REP = replacement-level bonus.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | G | GS | IP | BF | K | BB | HR | K% | BB% | HR% | ERA | FIP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2016 | 23 | A | Greensboro Grasshoppers | 8 | 8 | 44 | 178 | 38 | 14 | 3 | 15.8% | 9.3% | 1.5% | 2.68 | 3.77 | +0.6 |
| 2017 | 24 | AA | Jacksonville Jumbo Shrimp | 27 | 25 | 146 | 597 | 158 | 29 | 6 | 20.9% | 5.4% | 1.1% | 2.53 | 2.63 | +4.4 |
| 2018 | 25 | MLB | Miami Marlins | 31 | 31 | 166 | 698 | 167 | 53 | 19 | 23.3% | 7.6% | 3.0% | 3.86 | 3.77 | +2.9 |
| 2019 | 26 | MLB | Tampa Bay Rays | 33 | 26 | 141 | 604 | 135 | 54 | 19 | 21.9% | 8.6% | 3.4% | 3.97 | 4.20 | +1.8 |
| 2020 | 27 | MLB | Tampa Bay Rays | 9 | 4 | 32 | 150 | 27 | 11 | 6 | 18.0% | 7.3% | 4.3% | 5.91 | 4.86 | +0.0 |
| 2021 | 28 | MLB | Toronto Blue Jays | 60 | 0 | 72 | 277 | 90 | 22 | 12 | 31.1% | 8.4% | 4.7% | 3.14 | 4.13 | +0.8 |
| 2022 | 29 | MLB | Toronto Blue Jays | 63 | 4 | 65 | 287 | 83 | 34 | 11 | 29.2% | 12.1% | 2.9% | 5.68 | 3.77 | +0.9 |
| 2023 | 30 | MLB | Toronto Blue Jays | 57 | 3 | 74 | 318 | 106 | 33 | 13 | 33.3% | 10.2% | 4.4% | 4.89 | 3.98 | +0.9 |
| 2024 | 31 | MLB | Minnesota Twins | 56 | 2 | 66 | 282 | 63 | 36 | 8 | 22.4% | 12.6% | 2.6% | 4.75 | 4.22 | +0.6 |
| 2025 | 32 | MLB | Arizona Diamondbacks | 43 | 1 | 58 | 257 | 60 | 21 | 6 | 21.2% | 8.8% | 3.1% | 5.46 | 4.12 | +0.5 |
| ▸ 2026 Season | ||||||||||||||||
| 2026 | 33 | AAA | Lehigh Valley IronPigs | 6 | 0 | 9 | 31 | 17 | 2 | 2 | — | — | — | 2.00 | — | — |
| ROS | 33 | MLB | MIA | 11 | 11 | 60 | 255 | 59 | 26 | 8 | 22.9% | 10.2% | 3.1% | 4.56 | 4.53 | +0.3 |
| 2026 Total | 33 | MLB | MIA | — | — | 70 | 286 | 76 | 28 | 10 | 26.4% | 9.8% | 3.5% | 4.23 | 3.94 | +0.9 |
| ▸ 2027+ Projections — Marcel base + age-bracket aging | ||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 34 | MLB | MIA | 58 | — | 58 | 243 | 54 | 25 | 8 | 22.2% | 10.4% | 3.2% | 4.63 | 4.67 | +0.2 |
| 2028 | 35 | MLB | MIA | 54 | — | 54 | 229 | 49 | 24 | 8 | 21.5% | 10.6% | 3.3% | 4.75 | 4.82 | +0.1 |
| 2029 | 36 | MLB | MIA | 51 | — | 51 | 214 | 44 | 23 | 7 | 20.7% | 10.8% | 3.4% | 4.89 | 4.98 | -0.0 |
| ▸ Career (all levels · actual + projected) | ||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | 393 | 104 | 871 | 3679 | 885 | 316 | 110 | 24.1% | 8.6% | 3.0% | 3.99 | 3.80 | +14.9 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 90 | 24 | 200 | 844 | 203 | 73 | 25 | 24.1% | 8.6% | 3.0% | 3.99 | 3.80 | +3.4 | ||
Career Path Comps
What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection
| Profile at Match Age | Next 3 Yrs | Career | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Comp | Age | Role | FIP | K% | BB% | HR/BF | BABIP | FIP | K% | K-BB% | IP | ΔFIP | Low FIP | IP | Match |
| Trevor Richards (OGILVIE) | — | — | 4.53 | 22.9% | 10.2% | 3.1% | — | 4.82 | 21.5% | 10.9% | 162 | +0.29 | — | — | — |
| Cory Gearrin R 2026 · 3.82 FIP | 33 | SW | 3.82 | 19.5% | 10.0% | 2.0% | .303 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.17 | 272 | 73 |
| Fernando Nieve R 2026 · 4.26 FIP | 33 | SU | 4.26 | 22.0% | 10.5% | 3.1% | .290 | 2.44 | 26.9% | 22.6% | 89 | -1.82 | 1.94 | 112 | 72 |
| Josh Lindblom R 2026 · 3.54 FIP | 33 | SU | 3.54 | 27.2% | 8.4% | 3.0% | .308 | 4.43 | 21.7% | 13.8% | 255 | +0.89 | 3.54 | 348 | 69 |
| Arcenio Leon R 2025 · 3.52 FIP | 32 | SU | 3.52 | 21.4% | 8.1% | 2.2% | .314 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.01 | 115 | 69 |
| Ryan Cook R 2024 · 3.85 FIP | 31 | SW | 3.85 | 25.1% | 10.8% | 2.7% | .280 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.85 | 102 | 69 |
| Santiago Casilla R 2028 · 3.50 FIP | 35 | SW | 3.50 | 25.4% | 8.6% | 2.6% | .290 | 3.90 | 22.4% | 12.7% | 161 | +0.40 | 3.50 | 219 | 68 |
| Brad Brach R 2026 · 3.38 FIP | 33 | SW | 3.38 | 24.8% | 12.0% | 1.6% | .356 | 4.65 | 23.0% | 9.8% | 66 | +1.27 | 2.80 | 410 | 68 |
| Tony Barnette R 2026 · 3.61 FIP | 33 | SW | 3.61 | 22.6% | 7.1% | 2.8% | .335 | 2.56 | 25.0% | 20.2% | 26 | -1.05 | 2.56 | 144 | 68 |
| Jose Manuel Lopez R 2025 · 3.63 FIP | 32 | SU | 3.63 | 20.4% | 10.0% | 1.8% | .331 | 6.11 | 17.9% | 3.7% | 41 | +2.48 | 3.45 | 170 | 67 |
| Manny Acosta R 2028 · 4.09 FIP | 35 | SW | 4.09 | 18.1% | 9.1% | 2.5% | .273 | 3.07 | 23.2% | 9.9% | 44 | -1.02 | 3.07 | 102 | 67 |
| Brad Peacock R 2026 · 4.81 FIP | 33 | SU | 4.81 | 21.0% | 9.8% | 4.1% | .327 | 3.77 | 23.9% | 13.3% | 60 | -1.04 | 2.94 | 533 | 66 |
| Bryan Shaw R 2026 · 4.31 FIP | 33 | SW | 4.31 | 21.3% | 11.4% | 2.9% | .274 | 4.08 | 19.7% | 8.3% | 169 | -0.23 | 2.86 | 596 | 66 |
| Clayton Mortensen R 2025 · 4.60 FIP | 32 | SW | 4.60 | 23.2% | 14.2% | 3.0% | .258 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.33 | 221 | 66 |
| Ryan Brasier R 2026 · 4.83 FIP | 33 | SU | 4.83 | 18.0% | 8.0% | 4.1% | .286 | 3.13 | 23.7% | 17.9% | 150 | -1.70 | 2.31 | 403 | 65 |
| Anthony Swarzak R 2026 · 5.18 FIP | 33 | SW | 5.18 | 22.2% | 10.3% | 4.9% | .274 | 6.02 | 16.1% | 14.3% | 12 | +0.84 | 2.35 | 260 | 65 |
| Ross Ohlendorf R 2026 · 4.98 FIP | 33 | SW | 4.98 | 23.4% | 10.7% | 4.6% | .254 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.33 | 122 | 65 |
| Josh Lueke R 2027 · 4.14 FIP | 34 | SU | 4.14 | 20.4% | 6.4% | 3.6% | .311 | — | — | — | — | — | 2.32 | 107 | 65 |
| Zack Segovia R 2026 · 3.37 FIP | 33 | SU | 3.37 | 20.2% | 5.9% | 2.2% | .312 | 4.52 | 17.6% | 4.0% | 57 | +1.15 | 3.37 | 144 | 65 |
| Mark Serrano R 2026 · 5.25 FIP | 33 | SU | 5.25 | 20.2% | 7.9% | 5.2% | .289 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.10 | 120 | 65 |
| Jean Machi R 2026 · 4.63 FIP | 33 | SW | 4.63 | 16.3% | 8.6% | 3.3% | .276 | 4.24 | 18.5% | 11.9% | 128 | -0.39 | 4.11 | 186 | 65 |
Contract
No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.