Trevor Richards
P
Chicago White Sox
Age 33
RHP
6'2" / 205 lbs
MLB
2026 FULL-SEASON PROJECTION60 proj IP · Marcel + aging
ERA3.93
FIP4.13
xFIP4.88
SIERA4.40
K%24.7%
BB%9.3%
K-BB%15.3%
IP60
K†5555
trajectory · 10 yrs
0.0peak
2026
FB (59%)
SL-1.0 (15%)
CH-1.8 (27%)
Career (MLE) + Projections
Park-neutral MLB-equivalent. MiLB translated via MLE factors. FIP-based WAR vs replacement FIP=5.4 (SP) / 4.55 (RP, <80 IP). FIP+ = runs above league-avg FIP · REP = replacement-level bonus.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | G | GS | IP | BF | K | BB | HR | K% | BB% | HR% | ERA | FIP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2016 | 23 | A | Greensboro Grasshoppers | 8 | 8 | 44 | 178 | 38 | 14 | 3 | 15.8% | 9.3% | 1.2% | 2.68 | 3.63 | +0.5 |
| 2017 | 24 | AA | Jacksonville Jumbo Shrimp | 27 | 25 | 146 | 597 | 158 | 29 | 6 | 20.9% | 5.4% | 1.1% | 2.53 | 2.61 | +4.8 |
| 2018 | 25 | MLB | Miami Marlins | 31 | 31 | 166 | 698 | 167 | 53 | 19 | 23.3% | 7.6% | 3.0% | 3.86 | 3.73 | +3.2 |
| 2019 | 26 | MLB | Tampa Bay Rays | 33 | 26 | 141 | 604 | 135 | 54 | 19 | 21.9% | 8.6% | 3.5% | 3.97 | 4.25 | +1.9 |
| 2020 | 27 | MLB | Tampa Bay Rays | 9 | 4 | 32 | 150 | 27 | 11 | 6 | 18.0% | 7.3% | 4.2% | 5.91 | 4.83 | -0.1 |
| 2021 | 28 | MLB | Toronto Blue Jays | 60 | 0 | 72 | 277 | 90 | 22 | 12 | 31.1% | 8.4% | 4.8% | 3.14 | 4.16 | +0.5 |
| 2022 | 29 | MLB | Toronto Blue Jays | 63 | 4 | 65 | 287 | 83 | 34 | 11 | 29.2% | 12.1% | 3.2% | 5.68 | 3.93 | +0.6 |
| 2023 | 30 | MLB | Toronto Blue Jays | 57 | 3 | 74 | 318 | 106 | 33 | 13 | 33.3% | 10.2% | 4.1% | 4.89 | 3.84 | +0.9 |
| 2024 | 31 | MLB | Minnesota Twins | 56 | 2 | 66 | 282 | 63 | 36 | 8 | 22.4% | 12.6% | 2.5% | 4.75 | 4.18 | +0.4 |
| 2025 | 32 | MLB | Arizona Diamondbacks | 43 | 1 | 58 | 257 | 60 | 21 | 6 | 21.2% | 8.8% | 3.6% | 5.46 | 4.38 | +0.1 |
| ▸ 2026 Season | ||||||||||||||||
| 2026 | 33 | MLB | Chicago White Sox | 23 | 0 | 35 | 133 | 42 | 8 | 7 | 29.2% | 6.1% | 5.5% | 3.34 | 4.42 | +0.1 |
| ROS | 33 | MLB | CWS | 40 | — | 40 | 167 | 41 | 16 | 6 | 24.7% | 9.3% | 3.5% | 3.93 | 4.13 | +0.2 |
| 2026 Total | 33 | MLB | CWS | — | — | 74 | 300 | 83 | 24 | 13 | 27.7% | 7.9% | 4.3% | 3.65 | 4.27 | +0.5 |
| ▸ 2027+ Projections — Marcel base + age-bracket aging | ||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 34 | MLB | CWS | 55 | — | 55 | 233 | 49 | 23 | 9 | 21.0% | 9.9% | 3.7% | 4.78 | 4.98 | -0.3 |
| 2028 | 35 | MLB | CWS | 50 | — | 50 | 209 | 42 | 22 | 8 | 20.1% | 10.4% | 4.0% | 5.10 | 5.32 | -0.4 |
| 2029 | 36 | MLB | CWS | 44 | — | 44 | 185 | 35 | 20 | 8 | 19.0% | 11.0% | 4.4% | 5.45 | 5.69 | -0.6 |
| ▸ Career (all levels · actual + projected) | ||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | 410 | 104 | 897 | 3781 | 907 | 322 | 116 | 24.0% | 8.5% | 3.1% | 3.98 | 3.83 | +16.5 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 91 | 23 | 200 | 843 | 202 | 72 | 26 | 24.0% | 8.5% | 3.1% | 3.98 | 3.83 | +3.7 | ||
Career Path Comps
What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection
| Profile at Match Age | Next 3 Yrs | Career | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Comp | Age | Role | FIP | K% | BB% | HR/BF | BABIP | FIP | K% | K-BB% | IP | ΔFIP | Low FIP | IP | Match |
| Trevor Richards (OGILVIE) | — | — | 4.59 | 22.6% | 10.2% | 3.2% | — | 5.30 | 20.1% | 9.7% | 148 | +0.71 | — | — | — |
| Cory Gearrin R 2026 · 3.77 FIP | 33 | SW | 3.77 | 19.5% | 10.0% | 1.9% | .303 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.15 | 272 | 73 |
| Fernando Nieve R 2026 · 4.17 FIP | 33 | SU | 4.17 | 22.0% | 10.5% | 2.9% | .290 | 2.37 | 26.9% | 22.6% | 89 | -1.80 | 2.08 | 112 | 71 |
| Josh Lindblom R 2026 · 3.66 FIP | 33 | SU | 3.66 | 27.2% | 8.4% | 3.3% | .308 | 4.62 | 21.7% | 13.8% | 255 | +0.96 | 3.66 | 348 | 69 |
| Arcenio Leon R 2025 · 3.43 FIP | 32 | SU | 3.43 | 21.4% | 8.1% | 2.0% | .314 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.03 | 115 | 68 |
| Ryan Cook R 2024 · 4.04 FIP | 31 | SW | 4.04 | 25.1% | 10.8% | 3.1% | .280 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.04 | 102 | 68 |
| Tony Barnette R 2026 · 3.58 FIP | 33 | SW | 3.58 | 22.6% | 7.1% | 2.7% | .335 | 2.63 | 25.0% | 20.2% | 26 | -0.95 | 2.63 | 144 | 67 |
| Brad Peacock R 2026 · 4.28 FIP | 33 | SU | 4.28 | 21.0% | 9.8% | 3.1% | .327 | 4.03 | 23.9% | 13.3% | 60 | -0.25 | 2.88 | 533 | 67 |
| Manny Acosta R 2028 · 3.99 FIP | 35 | SW | 3.99 | 18.1% | 9.1% | 2.3% | .273 | 3.04 | 23.2% | 9.9% | 44 | -0.95 | 3.04 | 102 | 67 |
| Jose Manuel Lopez R 2025 · 3.77 FIP | 32 | SU | 3.77 | 20.4% | 10.0% | 2.1% | .331 | 5.83 | 17.9% | 3.7% | 41 | +2.06 | 3.37 | 170 | 67 |
| Ryan Brasier R 2026 · 4.77 FIP | 33 | SU | 4.77 | 18.0% | 8.0% | 4.0% | .286 | 3.18 | 23.7% | 17.9% | 150 | -1.59 | 2.27 | 426 | 67 |
| Santiago Casilla R 2028 · 3.51 FIP | 35 | SW | 3.51 | 25.4% | 8.6% | 2.7% | .290 | 3.93 | 22.4% | 12.7% | 161 | +0.42 | 3.51 | 219 | 67 |
| Mark Serrano R 2026 · 5.21 FIP | 33 | SU | 5.21 | 20.2% | 7.9% | 5.1% | .289 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.03 | 120 | 67 |
| Jean Machi R 2026 · 4.50 FIP | 33 | SW | 4.50 | 16.3% | 8.6% | 3.1% | .276 | 4.06 | 18.5% | 11.9% | 128 | -0.44 | 3.92 | 186 | 66 |
| Bryan Shaw R 2026 · 4.40 FIP | 33 | SW | 4.40 | 21.3% | 11.4% | 3.0% | .274 | 3.99 | 19.7% | 8.3% | 169 | -0.41 | 2.78 | 596 | 66 |
| Brad Brach R 2026 · 3.44 FIP | 33 | SW | 3.44 | 24.8% | 12.0% | 1.7% | .356 | 4.68 | 23.0% | 9.8% | 66 | +1.24 | 2.73 | 410 | 66 |
| Junichi Tazawa R 2026 · 4.22 FIP | 33 | SU | 4.22 | 17.0% | 8.4% | 2.7% | .306 | — | — | — | — | — | 2.90 | 227 | 66 |
| Anthony Swarzak R 2026 · 5.34 FIP | 33 | SW | 5.34 | 22.2% | 10.3% | 5.1% | .274 | 6.16 | 16.1% | 14.3% | 12 | +0.82 | 2.45 | 260 | 65 |
| Ross Ohlendorf R 2026 · 4.99 FIP | 33 | SW | 4.99 | 23.4% | 10.7% | 4.6% | .254 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.26 | 122 | 65 |
| Logan Kensing R 2026 · 3.55 FIP | 33 | SU | 3.55 | 17.6% | 8.8% | 1.5% | .270 | 3.06 | 17.9% | 10.0% | 124 | -0.49 | 2.77 | 172 | 65 |
| Clayton Mortensen R 2025 · 4.62 FIP | 32 | SW | 4.62 | 23.2% | 14.2% | 3.1% | .258 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.23 | 221 | 65 |
Contract
No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.