Grades · Statcast · Arsenal · Contract
Contract
No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.
Career Stats + Projections
Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed
Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | G | GS | IP | BF | K | BB | HR | GS% | IP/G | K% | BB% | K-BB% | HR% | ERA | FIP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2016 | 17 | ROK | DSL Braves | 5 | 0 | 10 | 43 | 9 | 2 | 2 | 0% | 2.1 | 20.9% | 4.7% | 16.3% | 4.7% | 2.61 | 4.47 | — |
| 2016 | 17 | ROK | DSL Braves | 5 | 0 | 10 | 43 | 9 | 2 | 2 | 0% | 2.1 | 20.9% | 4.7% | 16.3% | 4.7% | 2.61 | 4.45 | — |
| 2017 | 18 | ROK | GCL Braves | 8 | 6 | 19 | 96 | 12 | 10 | 0 | 75% | 2.4 | 8.5% | 13.0% | -4.5% | 0.0% | 5.59 | 4.03 | — |
| 2017 | 18 | ROK | GCL Braves | 8 | 6 | 19 | 96 | 12 | 10 | 0 | 75% | 2.4 | 12.5% | 10.4% | 2.1% | 0.0% | 5.59 | 3.41 | — |
| 2018 | 19 | ROK | AZL Dodgers | 12 | 2 | 37 | 161 | 41 | 13 | 0 | 17% | 3.1 | 17.3% | 10.1% | 7.2% | 0.0% | 3.86 | 2.92 | — |
| 2018 | 19 | ROK | AZL Dodgers | 12 | 2 | 37 | 161 | 41 | 13 | 0 | 17% | 3.1 | 25.5% | 8.1% | 17.4% | 0.0% | 3.86 | 1.95 | — |
| 2019 | 20 | MIX | 2 levels | 33 | 5 | 68 | 288 | 81 | 28 | 7 | 15% | 2.1 | 21.0% | 11.4% | 9.6% | 3.1% | 4.08 | 4.47 | — |
| 2019 | 20 | MIX | 2 levels | 33 | 5 | 68 | 288 | 81 | 28 | 7 | 15% | 2.1 | 28.1% | 9.7% | 18.4% | 2.4% | 4.08 | 3.29 | — |
| 2021 | 22 | AA | Tulsa Drillers | 25 | 0 | 35 | 145 | 49 | 12 | 5 | 0% | 1.4 | 27.4% | 9.1% | 18.3% | 4.8% | 3.06 | 4.55 | — |
| 2021 | 22 | AA | Tulsa Drillers | 25 | 0 | 35 | 145 | 49 | 12 | 5 | 0% | 1.4 | 33.8% | 8.3% | 25.5% | 3.4% | 3.06 | 3.18 | — |
| 2022 | 23 | AA | Tulsa Drillers | 48 | 0 | 55 | 241 | 66 | 27 | 12 | 0% | 1.1 | 22.2% | 12.3% | 9.9% | 6.1% | 4.77 | 6.11 | — |
| 2022 | 23 | AA | Tulsa Drillers | 48 | 0 | 55 | 241 | 66 | 27 | 12 | 0% | 1.1 | 27.4% | 11.2% | 16.2% | 5.0% | 4.77 | 5.02 | — |
| 2023 | 24 | MIX | 2 levels | 31 | 0 | 33 | 154 | 41 | 20 | 6 | 0% | 1.1 | 22.3% | 14.4% | 7.9% | 5.0% | 7.44 | 5.76 | -0.5 |
| 2023 | 24 | MIX | 2 levels | 31 | 0 | 33 | 154 | 41 | 20 | 6 | 0% | 1.1 | 26.6% | 13.0% | 13.6% | 3.9% | 7.44 | 4.81 | -0.1 |
| 2024 | 25 | MIX | 3 levels | 43 | 2 | 46 | 199 | 31 | 15 | 9 | 5% | 1.1 | 14.0% | 7.7% | 6.3% | 5.8% | 5.09 | 6.11 | -0.8 |
| 2024 | 25 | MIX | 3 levels | 43 | 2 | 46 | 199 | 31 | 15 | 9 | 5% | 1.1 | 15.6% | 7.5% | 8.0% | 4.5% | 5.09 | 5.27 | -0.4 |
| 2025 | 26 | AAA | Tacoma Rainiers | 42 | 0 | 46 | 203 | 46 | 24 | 3 | 0% | 1.1 | 19.9% | 12.4% | 7.5% | 1.2% | 5.24 | 3.62 | — |
| 2025 | 26 | AAA | Tacoma Rainiers | 42 | 0 | 46 | 203 | 46 | 24 | 3 | 0% | 1.1 | 22.7% | 11.8% | 10.8% | 1.5% | 5.24 | 3.51 | — |
| ▸ 2026 Season | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2026 | 27 | MLB | New York Mets | 15 | 0 | 15 | 67 | 19 | 13 | 0 | 0% | 1.0 | — | — | — | — | 3.07 | — | — |
| ROS | 27 | MLB | NYM | 53 | 0 | 56 | 236 | 42 | 27 | 7 | 0% | 1.1 | 18.0% | 11.5% | 6.5% | 3.0% | 4.78 | 5.07 | -0.3 |
| ROS | 27 | MLB | NYM | 53 | 0 | 56 | 236 | 42 | 27 | 7 | 0% | 1.1 | 18.0% | 11.5% | 6.5% | 3.0% | 4.78 | 5.07 | -0.3 |
| 2026 TOT | 27 | MLB | NYM | — | — | 71 | 303 | 61 | 40 | 7 | — | — | 20.3% | 13.3% | 7.0% | 2.3% | 4.42 | 4.02 | +0.6 |
| 2026 FULL | 27 | MLB | NYM | — | — | 57 | 240 | 61 | 40 | 7 | — | — | 25.6% | 16.7% | 8.8% | 2.9% | 5.49 | 4.68 | -0.1 |
| ▸ 2027+ Projections WITH CONTEXT · MLB TIME ONLY ⓘ | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 28 | MLB | NYM | 53 | 0 | 55 | 233 | 43 | 27 | 7 | 0% | 1.0 | 18.4% | 11.4% | 6.9% | 3.1% | 4.93 | 5.08 | -0.3 |
| 2028 | 29 | MLB | NYM | 50 | 0 | 53 | 223 | 40 | 26 | 7 | 0% | 1.1 | 18.2% | 11.5% | 6.7% | 3.2% | 5.06 | 5.18 | -0.4 |
| 2027 | 28 | MLB | NYM | 50 | 0 | 52 | 220 | 40 | 25 | 7 | 0% | 1.0 | 18.4% | 11.4% | 6.9% | 3.1% | 4.93 | 5.08 | -0.3 |
| 2028 | 29 | MLB | NYM | 48 | 0 | 50 | 211 | 38 | 24 | 7 | 0% | 1.0 | 18.2% | 11.5% | 6.7% | 3.2% | 5.06 | 5.18 | -0.4 |
| ▸ Career (MLB actual + context projections) | |||||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | 169 | 0 | 179 | 757 | 138 | 84 | 26 | 0% | 1.1 | 18.3% | 11.1% | 7.2% | 3.4% | 4.90 | 4.83 | +1.2 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 189 | 0 | 200 | 845 | 154 | 94 | 29 | 0% | 1.1 | 18.3% | 11.1% | 7.2% | 3.4% | 4.90 | 4.83 | +1.3 | ||
| Career | — | 262 | 15 | 365 | 1597 | 321 | 182 | 54 | 6% | 1.4 | 20.1% | 11.4% | 8.7% | 3.4% | 4.64 | 4.71 | +3.0 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 144 | 8 | 200 | 875 | 176 | 100 | 30 | 6% | 1.4 | 20.1% | 11.4% | 8.7% | 3.4% | 4.64 | 4.71 | +1.6 | ||
Career Path Comps
What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection
| Profile at Match Age | Next 3 Yrs | Career | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Comp | Age | Role | FIP | K% | BB% | HR/BF | BABIP | FIP | K% | K-BB% | IP | ΔFIP | Low FIP | IP | Match |
| Guillo Zuñiga (OGILVIE) | — | — | 5.07 | 18.0% | 11.5% | 3.0% | — | 5.13 | 18.3% | 6.8% | 108 | +0.06 | — | — | — |
| Tanner Scheppers R 2027 · 4.39 FIP | 28 | SU | 4.39 | 17.7% | 11.2% | 2.5% | .263 | 4.65 | 15.7% | 9.0% | 48 | +0.26 | 4.39 | 101 | 88 |
| Ryan Cook R 2027 · 4.69 FIP | 28 | SU | 4.69 | 16.5% | 9.9% | 3.1% | .297 | 4.04 | 25.1% | 14.3% | 50 | -0.65 | 4.04 | 102 | 86 |
| Spencer Bivens R 2027 · 4.81 FIP | 28 | SU | 4.81 | 19.8% | 13.5% | 3.0% | .265 | 3.88 | 18.2% | 10.2% | 272 | -0.93 | 3.53 | 365 | 85 |
| Gonzalez Germen R 2026 · 4.11 FIP | 27 | SU | 4.11 | 18.0% | 12.5% | 1.7% | .296 | 3.74 | 19.2% | 8.3% | 54 | -0.37 | 3.74 | 146 | 84 |
| Chris Beck R 2026 · 4.83 FIP | 27 | SU | 4.83 | 17.4% | 12.2% | 3.0% | .305 | 5.33 | 18.1% | 9.3% | 41 | +0.50 | 3.11 | 313 | 84 |
| Luis Mateo R 2026 · 4.33 FIP | 27 | SU | 4.33 | 17.6% | 11.2% | 2.4% | .309 | 5.34 | 8.6% | -4.8% | 43 | +1.01 | 3.43 | 160 | 84 |
| Domingo Tapia R 2026 · 4.72 FIP | 27 | SU | 4.72 | 15.2% | 11.1% | 2.7% | .314 | 3.87 | 18.1% | 6.4% | 115 | -0.85 | 3.34 | 395 | 84 |
| Joe Colón J R 2026 · 4.04 FIP | 27 | SU | 4.04 | 20.4% | 12.1% | 2.1% | .315 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.28 | 113 | 83 |
| Armando Rivero R 2026 · 4.39 FIP | 27 | SU | 4.39 | 18.7% | 13.5% | 2.1% | .256 | 2.81 | 32.9% | 19.8% | 68 | -1.58 | 2.81 | 125 | 83 |
| Josh Zeid R 2027 · 4.21 FIP | 28 | SU | 4.21 | 16.6% | 12.5% | 1.7% | .302 | 5.16 | 16.9% | 5.7% | 194 | +0.95 | 4.21 | 265 | 81 |
| Ronald Peña R 2026 · 4.51 FIP | 27 | SU | 4.51 | 20.5% | 12.6% | 2.8% | .355 | 4.54 | 16.5% | 6.1% | 39 | +0.03 | 3.57 | 187 | 81 |
| Julian Arballo R 2026 · 5.47 FIP | 27 | SU | 5.47 | 15.1% | 13.8% | 3.5% | .335 | 4.38 | 12.6% | 0.6% | 116 | -1.09 | 4.28 | 214 | 81 |
| Tucker Healy R 2026 · 4.52 FIP | 27 | SU | 4.52 | 15.6% | 11.5% | 2.3% | .321 | 5.43 | 19.2% | 8.7% | 24 | +0.91 | 2.85 | 174 | 80 |
| Michael Blazek R 2026 · 5.09 FIP | 27 | SU | 5.09 | 17.9% | 11.9% | 3.6% | .336 | 4.52 | 17.5% | 8.0% | 124 | -0.57 | 3.05 | 221 | 80 |
| David Goforth R 2026 · 4.74 FIP | 27 | SU | 4.74 | 14.5% | 12.8% | 2.3% | .333 | 4.50 | 13.9% | 4.6% | 122 | -0.24 | 3.92 | 256 | 80 |
| Mike Adams R 2026 · 5.26 FIP | 27 | SU | 5.26 | 17.1% | 11.2% | 4.0% | .326 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.66 | 109 | 80 |
| David Holman R 2026 · 5.25 FIP | 27 | SU | 5.25 | 15.6% | 12.7% | 3.4% | .324 | 5.21 | 9.6% | 0.5% | 107 | -0.04 | 5.04 | 129 | 80 |
| Chris Jefferson R 2026 · 5.37 FIP | 27 | SU | 5.37 | 16.4% | 13.6% | 3.5% | .308 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.74 | 140 | 80 |
| Wirfin Obispo R 2029 · 4.87 FIP | 30 | SU | 4.87 | 18.6% | 12.2% | 3.3% | .292 | 1.30 | 28.6% | 24.5% | 126 | -3.57 | 1.30 | 218 | 80 |
| Confesor Lara R 2024 · 4.32 FIP | 25 | SU | 4.32 | 16.4% | 11.0% | 2.2% | .329 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.69 | 111 | 80 |
Career Comps
Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 327 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).
| Player | Yrs | IP/yr | K% | BB% | HR/9 | ERA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION | 3 | 55 | 18.2% | 11.5% | 1.20 | 4.92 |
| Travis Wood ('17) | 3 | 85 | 20.8% | 9.8% | 1.34 | 4.72 |
| Roansy Contreras ('24) | 3 | 77 | 19.5% | 10.1% | 1.36 | 4.78 |
| Jorge De La Rosa ('18) | 4 | 98 | 19.5% | 10.3% | 1.22 | 4.52 |
| José Ruiz ('24) | 5 | 52 | 22.2% | 10.4% | 1.41 | 4.41 |
| Drew VerHagen ('23) | 6 | 43 | 19.7% | 9.4% | 1.40 | 4.82 |
| Adam Conley ('19) | 5 | 83 | 19.7% | 9.5% | 1.17 | 4.82 |