David Bednar — OGILVIE

David Bednar P New York Yankees

+1.1 WAR

Age 31 RHP 6'1" / 250 lbs MLB Svc 5.0 · Ctrl thru 2026 peak 1.1 · 2026

ERA3.36

FIP3.37

xFIP2.58

SIERA2.85

K%28.7%

BB%7.9%

K-BB%20.8%

IP57

trajectory · 10 yrs

1.1peak

2026

K†7070

FB Velo

p8797.1

Whiff%

p8731.1%

p9034.3%

xwOBA vs

p900.264

CU (30%)

FB-1.9 (40%)

Career (MLE) + Projections

Park-neutral MLB-equivalent. MiLB translated via MLE factors. FIP-based WAR vs replacement FIP=5.3 (SP) / 4.95 (RP, <80 IP). FIP+ = runs above league-avg FIP · REP = replacement-level bonus.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	K%	BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
2016	21	A	Fort Wayne TinCaps	15	0	21	88	25	2	0	21.0%	2.7%	0.0%	3.43	1.66	+0.8
2017	22	A+	Lake Elsinore Storm	45	0	61	250	81	18	2	24.3%	8.4%	1.0%	2.64	2.68	+1.6
2018	23	A+	Lake Elsinore Storm	47	0	69	301	96	29	4	24.6%	11.1%	2.0%	2.73	3.52	+1.2
2019	24	MLB	San Diego Padres	57	0	69	288	100	21	7	29.0%	7.3%	1.4%	3.52	2.33	+2.1
2020	25	MLB	San Diego Padres	4	0	6	32	5	2	1	—	—	—	7.11	—	—
2021	26	MLB	Pittsburgh Pirates	61	0	61	237	77	17	5	32.5%	7.2%	2.1%	2.23	2.44	+1.7
2022	27	MLB	Pittsburgh Pirates	48	1	55	222	73	15	4	32.9%	6.7%	2.0%	2.63	2.29	+1.6
2023	28	MLB	Pittsburgh Pirates	66	0	67	277	80	17	3	28.9%	6.1%	1.2%	2.00	2.08	+2.2
2024	29	MLB	Pittsburgh Pirates	63	0	59	266	59	25	9	22.1%	9.5%	3.4%	5.68	4.33	+0.4
2025	30	MLB	New York Yankees	69	0	68	267	93	17	4	34.3%	6.8%	1.5%	2.13	1.87	+2.4
▸ 2026 Season
2026	31	MLB	New York Yankees	8	0	8	38	10	3	0	—	—	—	4.70	—	—
ROS	31	MLB	NYY	50	—	50	210	64	17	5	30.4%	7.9%	2.5%	3.28	3.28	+0.9
2026 Total	31	MLB	NYY	—	—	57	248	74	20	5	29.8%	7.9%	2.1%	3.47	2.84	+1.4
▸ 2027+ Projections — Marcel base + age-bracket aging
2027	32	MLB	NYY	55	—	55	232	68	19	6	29.1%	8.1%	2.4%	3.31	3.35	+1.0
2028	33	MLB	NYY	52	—	52	222	63	18	5	28.4%	8.2%	2.5%	3.41	3.48	+0.9
2029	34	MLB	NYY	50	—	50	211	58	18	5	27.8%	8.4%	2.6%	3.54	3.62	+0.8
2030	35	MLB	NYY	47	—	47	198	54	17	5	27.0%	8.7%	2.7%	3.68	3.77	+0.6
2031	36	MLB	NYY	44	—	44	185	49	17	5	26.2%	8.9%	2.8%	3.83	3.93	+0.5
2032	37	MLB	NYY	41	—	41	172	44	16	5	25.4%	9.2%	2.9%	4.00	4.11	+0.4
2033	38	MLB	NYY	37	—	37	158	39	15	5	24.6%	9.5%	3.1%	4.18	4.30	+0.3
▸ Career (all levels · actual + projected)
Career	—			483	1	544	2266	632	175	39	27.9%	7.7%	1.7%	3.01	2.68	+16.2
/ 200 IP	—			178	0	200	834	232	64	14	27.9%	7.7%	1.7%	3.01	2.68	+5.9

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
David Bednar (OGILVIE)	—	—	3.28	30.4%	7.9%	2.5%	—	3.48	28.5%	20.2%	157	+0.20	—	—	—
John Axford R 2027 · 3.28 FIP	32	SW	3.28	24.8%	11.2%	1.6%	.333	3.94	21.5%	11.1%	141	+0.66	3.28	197	74
Oliver Drake R 2026 · 2.91 FIP	31	SU	2.91	24.4%	7.7%	1.6%	.348	3.26	33.5%	25.4%	80	+0.35	2.26	317	68
Jonathan Broxton R 2026 · 3.73 FIP	31	SW	3.73	24.5%	8.2%	3.0%	.325	3.80	21.7%	13.5%	76	+0.07	3.65	137	67
Jumbo Diaz R 2026 · 3.21 FIP	31	SW	3.21	25.2%	6.0%	2.7%	.286	3.66	21.9%	12.2%	152	+0.45	2.80	284	66
Blake Wood R 2026 · 3.35 FIP	31	SW	3.35	25.3%	9.3%	2.2%	.364	—	—	—	—	—	2.91	210	66
Yoshihisa Hirano R 2029 · 3.43 FIP	34	SW	3.43	22.5%	7.3%	2.4%	.242	3.91	24.6%	15.2%	65	+0.48	3.43	132	66
Ross Ohlendorf R 2027 · 3.33 FIP	32	SW	3.33	23.7%	7.2%	2.4%	.342	4.98	23.4%	12.7%	66	+1.65	3.33	122	66
Fernando Cruz R 2027 · 2.94 FIP	32	SW	2.94	27.4%	10.0%	1.6%	.254	2.70	36.3%	25.3%	181	-0.24	2.44	316	65
Greg Holland R 2026 · 3.37 FIP	31	SW	3.37	29.8%	10.6%	2.6%	.248	3.45	25.2%	13.1%	110	+0.08	1.94	268	65
Jeremy Jeffress R 2026 · 3.53 FIP	31	SW	3.53	20.4%	7.6%	2.2%	.312	3.71	19.3%	6.8%	23	+0.18	2.41	343	65
Jake Petricka R 2026 · 3.04 FIP	31	SU	3.04	23.4%	7.7%	1.7%	.323	4.02	18.8%	10.8%	60	+0.98	3.04	252	65
Fernando Rodriguez Jr. R 2026 · 3.38 FIP	31	SW	3.38	26.5%	9.6%	2.4%	.241	3.98	23.3%	13.2%	105	+0.60	3.38	212	65
Blake Parker R 2026 · 3.18 FIP	31	SW	3.18	28.1%	8.5%	2.5%	.269	3.64	28.4%	21.3%	195	+0.46	2.41	339	64
Tom Wilhelmsen R 2026 · 3.11 FIP	31	SW	3.11	22.5%	9.7%	1.2%	.298	5.81	13.8%	4.1%	86	+2.70	3.11	148	64
Ryan Madson R 2029 · 2.94 FIP	34	SW	2.94	23.4%	5.2%	2.1%	.244	2.97	23.9%	18.7%	176	+0.03	1.43	240	64
Justin Miller R 2026 · 4.30 FIP	31	SW	4.30	27.9%	7.4%	4.8%	.248	4.70	24.8%	18.8%	66	+0.40	2.67	279	63
Ryan Cook R 2026 · 3.85 FIP	31	SW	3.85	25.1%	10.8%	2.7%	.280	—	—	—	—	—	3.85	102	63
Brooks Kriske R 2026 · 3.04 FIP	31	SW	3.04	28.4%	10.9%	1.7%	.336	—	—	—	—	—	3.04	230	62
Joakim Soria R 2026 · 3.48 FIP	31	SW	3.48	23.5%	6.6%	2.8%	.258	2.91	26.6%	18.9%	183	-0.57	2.00	380	62
Ryan Brasier R 2026 · 4.09 FIP	31	SW	4.09	25.3%	8.3%	3.8%	.278	3.53	24.3%	18.2%	99	-0.56	2.31	403	62

Contract

ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status Arb-3

MLB Debut 2019

Service 5.424 yrs.days

Team Control Through 2026

First FA Year 2027

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2026	Arb-3	$9M	+1.1	$9M	+$0.0M (cut)
Totals		$9M		$9M	+$0.0M