David Bednar
P
New York Yankees
Age 31
RHP
6'1" / 250 lbs
MLB
Svc 5.0 · Ctrl thru 2026
peak 0.9 · 2026
2026 ROS PROJECTION40 act + 17 ip · rates below = ROS only
wRC+ AGAINSTvL 7869vR 60
ERA2.86
FIP2.76
K%29.0%
BB%7.3%
K-BB%21.7%
ROS IP17
Value2026 · WAR
Runs saved vs league avg · 57 IP
Grades · Statcast · Arsenal · Contract
Statcast Percentiles
FB Velo
p7196.0
Whiff%
p8030.0%
K%
p7827.3%
xwOBA vs
p900.262
CU (22%)
FB-1.9 (41%)
Career Stats + Projections
Viewactual = stats as recorded (seasons combined) + projected real-world MLB lines · MLE = level/park-neutral translations
Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed
Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | G | GS | IP | BF | K | BB | HR | GS% | IP/G | K% | BB% | K-BB% | HR% | ERA | FIP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2016 | 21 | A | Fort Wayne TinCaps | 15 | 0 | 21 | 88 | 25 | 2 | 0 | 0% | 1.4 | 21.0% | 2.7% | 18.3% | 0.0% | 3.43 | 1.66 | — |
| 2016 | 21 | A | Fort Wayne TinCaps | 15 | 0 | 21 | 88 | 25 | 2 | 0 | 0% | 1.4 | 28.4% | 2.3% | 26.1% | 0.0% | 3.43 | 1.00 | — |
| 2017 | 22 | MIX | 2 levels | 45 | 0 | 61 | 250 | 81 | 18 | 2 | 0% | 1.4 | 24.3% | 8.4% | 16.0% | 1.1% | 2.64 | 2.69 | — |
| 2017 | 22 | MIX | 2 levels | 45 | 0 | 61 | 250 | 81 | 18 | 2 | 0% | 1.4 | 32.4% | 7.2% | 25.2% | 0.8% | 2.64 | 1.76 | — |
| 2018 | 23 | A+ | Lake Elsinore Storm | 47 | 0 | 69 | 301 | 96 | 29 | 4 | 0% | 1.5 | 24.6% | 11.1% | 13.5% | 2.5% | 2.73 | 3.78 | — |
| 2018 | 23 | A+ | Lake Elsinore Storm | 47 | 0 | 69 | 301 | 96 | 29 | 4 | 0% | 1.5 | 31.9% | 9.6% | 22.3% | 1.3% | 2.73 | 2.34 | — |
| 2019 | 24 | MIX | 2 levels | 57 | 0 | 69 | 288 | 100 | 21 | 7 | 0% | 1.2 | 29.0% | 7.3% | 21.7% | 1.2% | 3.52 | 2.23 | +2.0 |
| 2019 | 24 | MIX | 2 levels | 57 | 0 | 69 | 288 | 100 | 21 | 7 | 0% | 1.2 | 34.7% | 7.3% | 27.4% | 2.4% | 3.52 | 2.43 | +1.9 |
| 2020 | 25 | MLB | San Diego Padres | 4 | 0 | 6 | 32 | 5 | 2 | 1 | 0% | 1.6 | 15.6% | 6.2% | 9.4% | 3.1% | 7.11 | 4.29 | +0.0 |
| 2020 | 25 | MLB | San Diego Padres | 4 | 0 | 6 | 32 | 5 | 2 | 1 | 0% | 1.6 | 15.6% | 6.2% | 9.4% | 3.1% | 7.11 | 4.52 | +0.0 |
| 2021 | 26 | MLB | Pittsburgh Pirates | 61 | 0 | 61 | 237 | 77 | 17 | 5 | 0% | 1.0 | 32.5% | 7.2% | 25.3% | 2.1% | 2.23 | 2.43 | +1.5 |
| 2021 | 26 | MLB | Pittsburgh Pirates | 61 | 0 | 61 | 237 | 77 | 17 | 5 | 0% | 1.0 | 32.5% | 7.2% | 25.3% | 2.1% | 2.23 | 2.47 | +1.5 |
| 2022 | 27 | MIX | 2 levels | 48 | 1 | 55 | 222 | 73 | 15 | 4 | 2% | 1.1 | 32.9% | 6.7% | 26.2% | 1.9% | 2.63 | 2.23 | +1.5 |
| 2022 | 27 | MIX | 2 levels | 48 | 1 | 55 | 222 | 73 | 15 | 4 | 2% | 1.1 | 32.9% | 6.8% | 26.1% | 1.8% | 2.63 | 2.20 | +1.5 |
| 2023 | 28 | MLB | Pittsburgh Pirates | 66 | 0 | 67 | 277 | 80 | 17 | 3 | 0% | 1.0 | 28.9% | 6.1% | 22.7% | 1.1% | 2.00 | 2.04 | +2.1 |
| 2023 | 28 | MLB | Pittsburgh Pirates | 66 | 0 | 67 | 277 | 80 | 17 | 3 | 0% | 1.0 | 28.9% | 6.1% | 22.7% | 1.1% | 2.00 | 2.06 | +2.1 |
| 2024 | 29 | MIX | 2 levels | 63 | 0 | 59 | 266 | 59 | 25 | 9 | 0% | 0.9 | 22.1% | 9.5% | 12.6% | 3.5% | 5.68 | 4.34 | +0.1 |
| 2024 | 29 | MIX | 2 levels | 63 | 0 | 59 | 266 | 59 | 25 | 9 | 0% | 0.9 | 22.2% | 9.4% | 12.8% | 3.4% | 5.68 | 4.36 | +0.1 |
| 2025 | 30 | MIX | 2 levels | 69 | 0 | 68 | 267 | 93 | 17 | 4 | 0% | 1.0 | 34.3% | 6.8% | 27.5% | 1.5% | 2.13 | 1.88 | +2.2 |
| 2025 | 30 | MIX | 2 levels | 69 | 0 | 68 | 267 | 93 | 17 | 4 | 0% | 1.0 | 34.8% | 6.4% | 28.5% | 1.5% | 2.13 | 1.87 | +2.2 |
| ▸ 2026 Season | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2026 | 31 | MLB | New York Yankees | 37 | 0 | 40 | 165 | 45 | 11 | 2 | 0% | 1.1 | 27.3% | 6.7% | 20.6% | 1.2% | 2.70 | 2.31 | +1.0 |
| ROS | 31 | MLB | NYY | 16 | 0 | 17 | 73 | 21 | 5 | 2 | 0% | 1.1 | 29.0% | 7.3% | 21.7% | 2.2% | 2.86 | 2.76 | +0.4 |
| ROS | 31 | MLB | NYY | 16 | 0 | 17 | 72 | 21 | 5 | 2 | 0% | 1.1 | 29.0% | 7.3% | 21.7% | 2.2% | 2.90 | 2.80 | +0.3 |
| 2026 TOT | 31 | MLB | NYY | — | — | 57 | 238 | 66 | 16 | 4 | — | — | 27.8% | 6.8% | 20.9% | 1.5% | 2.75 | 2.44 | +1.4 |
| 2026 FULL | 31 | MLB | NYY | — | — | 57 | 242 | 66 | 16 | 4 | — | — | 27.4% | 6.7% | 20.6% | 1.5% | 2.76 | 2.47 | +1.4 |
| ▸ 2027+ Projections WITH CONTEXT · MLB TIME ONLY ⓘ | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 32 | MLB | NYY | 50 | 0 | 53 | 224 | 64 | 17 | 5 | 0% | 1.1 | 28.5% | 7.7% | 20.8% | 2.4% | 3.31 | 3.37 | +0.7 |
| 2028 | 33 | MLB | NYY | 46 | 0 | 49 | 205 | 57 | 17 | 6 | 0% | 1.1 | 27.7% | 8.1% | 19.5% | 2.7% | 3.51 | 3.65 | +0.5 |
| 2029 | 34 | MLB | NYY | 42 | 0 | 44 | 187 | 50 | 16 | 6 | 0% | 1.1 | 26.8% | 8.6% | 18.1% | 3.0% | 3.78 | 3.95 | +0.3 |
| 2027 | 32 | MLB | NYY | 50 | 0 | 53 | 224 | 64 | 17 | 6 | 0% | 1.1 | 28.5% | 7.7% | 20.8% | 2.5% | 3.36 | 3.42 | +0.7 |
| 2028 | 33 | MLB | NYY | 47 | 0 | 49 | 207 | 57 | 17 | 6 | 0% | 1.0 | 27.7% | 8.1% | 19.5% | 2.8% | 3.57 | 3.71 | +0.5 |
| 2029 | 34 | MLB | NYY | 42 | 0 | 44 | 186 | 50 | 16 | 6 | 0% | 1.0 | 26.8% | 8.6% | 18.1% | 3.1% | 3.84 | 4.01 | +0.3 |
| ▸ Career (MLB actual + context projections) | |||||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | 507 | 0 | 520 | 2171 | 626 | 163 | 50 | 0% | 1.0 | 28.8% | 7.5% | 21.3% | 2.3% | 3.22 | 2.88 | +15.4 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 195 | 0 | 200 | 834 | 241 | 63 | 19 | 0% | 1.0 | 28.8% | 7.5% | 21.3% | 2.3% | 3.22 | 2.88 | +5.9 | ||
| Career | — | 512 | 1 | 576 | 2393 | 667 | 183 | 42 | 0% | 1.1 | 27.9% | 7.7% | 20.2% | 1.8% | 2.97 | 2.68 | +18.3 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 178 | 0 | 200 | 831 | 232 | 64 | 15 | 0% | 1.1 | 27.9% | 7.7% | 20.2% | 1.8% | 2.97 | 2.68 | +6.4 | ||
Career Path Comps
What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection
| Profile at Match Age | Next 3 Yrs | Career | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Comp | Age | Role | FIP | K% | BB% | HR/BF | BABIP | FIP | K% | K-BB% | IP | ΔFIP | Low FIP | IP | Match |
| David Bednar (OGILVIE) | — | — | 3.23 | 30.4% | 7.5% | 2.5% | — | 3.64 | 27.7% | 19.6% | 146 | +0.41 | — | — | — |
| John Axford R 2027 · 3.10 FIP | 32 | SU | 3.10 | 24.8% | 11.2% | 1.2% | .333 | 3.98 | 21.5% | 11.1% | 141 | +0.88 | 3.10 | 197 | 68 |
| Oliver Drake R 2026 · 3.05 FIP | 31 | SU | 3.05 | 24.4% | 7.7% | 1.9% | .348 | 3.26 | 33.5% | 25.4% | 80 | +0.21 | 2.25 | 317 | 67 |
| Hirokazu Sawamura R 2028 · 4.40 FIP | 33 | SU | 4.40 | 26.2% | 11.2% | 3.8% | .263 | 3.99 | 18.1% | 6.8% | 51 | -0.41 | 3.99 | 104 | 66 |
| Jumbo Diaz R 2026 · 3.20 FIP | 31 | SU | 3.20 | 25.2% | 6.0% | 2.7% | .286 | 3.68 | 21.9% | 12.2% | 152 | +0.48 | 2.82 | 284 | 66 |
| Greg Holland R 2026 · 3.19 FIP | 31 | SU | 3.19 | 29.8% | 10.6% | 2.3% | .248 | 3.41 | 25.2% | 13.1% | 110 | +0.22 | 1.97 | 268 | 65 |
| Pedro Strop R 2026 · 2.48 FIP | 31 | SU | 2.48 | 32.1% | 7.5% | 2.1% | .211 | 3.23 | 25.5% | 16.3% | 162 | +0.75 | 2.48 | 277 | 64 |
| Blake Parker R 2026 · 3.36 FIP | 31 | SU | 3.36 | 28.1% | 8.5% | 2.8% | .269 | 3.84 | 28.4% | 21.3% | 195 | +0.48 | 2.61 | 339 | 64 |
| Justin Miller R 2026 · 4.24 FIP | 31 | SU | 4.24 | 27.9% | 7.4% | 4.7% | .248 | 4.79 | 24.8% | 18.8% | 66 | +0.55 | 2.54 | 279 | 64 |
| Kirby Yates R 2026 · 2.34 FIP | 31 | SU | 2.34 | 36.0% | 6.8% | 2.6% | .255 | 0.70 | 41.6% | 36.7% | 61 | -1.64 | 0.70 | 468 | 64 |
| Jonathan Broxton R 2026 · 3.57 FIP | 31 | SU | 3.57 | 24.5% | 8.2% | 2.7% | .325 | 3.78 | 21.7% | 13.5% | 76 | +0.21 | 3.57 | 137 | 64 |
| Mark Lowe R 2027 · 2.37 FIP | 32 | SU | 2.37 | 28.4% | 5.1% | 1.9% | .302 | 5.17 | 19.2% | 9.9% | 98 | +2.80 | 2.37 | 153 | 64 |
| Fernando Cruz R 2027 · 2.77 FIP | 32 | SU | 2.77 | 27.4% | 10.0% | 1.3% | .254 | 2.78 | 36.3% | 25.3% | 181 | +0.01 | 2.52 | 356 | 63 |
| Jake Petricka R 2026 · 3.04 FIP | 31 | SU | 3.04 | 23.4% | 7.7% | 1.7% | .323 | 4.25 | 18.8% | 10.8% | 60 | +1.21 | 3.04 | 252 | 63 |
| Blake Wood R 2026 · 3.52 FIP | 31 | SU | 3.52 | 25.3% | 9.3% | 2.5% | .364 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.05 | 210 | 63 |
| Ross Ohlendorf R 2027 · 3.26 FIP | 32 | SU | 3.26 | 23.7% | 7.2% | 2.3% | .342 | 4.99 | 23.4% | 12.7% | 66 | +1.73 | 3.26 | 122 | 63 |
| Ryan Madson R 2029 · 2.97 FIP | 34 | SU | 2.97 | 23.4% | 5.2% | 2.2% | .244 | 2.98 | 23.9% | 18.7% | 176 | +0.01 | 1.42 | 240 | 62 |
| Fernando Rodriguez Jr. R 2026 · 3.41 FIP | 31 | SU | 3.41 | 26.5% | 9.6% | 2.4% | .241 | 3.66 | 23.3% | 13.2% | 105 | +0.25 | 3.41 | 212 | 62 |
| Wade Davis R 2026 · 3.08 FIP | 31 | SU | 3.08 | 32.6% | 11.2% | 2.4% | .254 | 3.71 | 26.1% | 14.5% | 108 | +0.63 | 2.00 | 320 | 62 |
| Robert Suarez R 2026 · 3.03 FIP | 31 | SU | 3.03 | 31.9% | 11.0% | 2.2% | .238 | 3.29 | 24.9% | 19.3% | 162 | +0.26 | 1.93 | 289 | 62 |
| Yoshihisa Hirano R 2029 · 3.32 FIP | 34 | SU | 3.32 | 22.5% | 7.3% | 2.2% | .242 | 3.84 | 24.6% | 15.2% | 65 | +0.52 | 3.32 | 132 | 62 |
Career Comps
Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 327 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).
| Player | Yrs | IP/yr | K% | BB% | HR/9 | ERA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION | 4 | 51 | 28.5% | 8.0% | 1.01 | 3.47 |
| Diego Castillo ('22) | 5 | 52 | 28.1% | 8.9% | 1.07 | 3.12 |
| Pedro Báez ('19) | 5 | 63 | 26.1% | 8.3% | 0.97 | 3.06 |
| Zach McAllister ('18) | 4 | 57 | 24.8% | 7.9% | 1.14 | 3.63 |
| Keone Kela ('19) | 5 | 43 | 30.1% | 9.4% | 0.92 | 3.23 |
| Sean Doolittle ('21) | 5 | 49 | 28.7% | 6.2% | 1.18 | 3.31 |
| Giovanny Gallegos ('24) | 6 | 52 | 29.4% | 6.6% | 1.19 | 3.46 |