David Bednar

P New York Yankees

Age 32 RHP 6'1" / 250 lbs MLB Svc 6.0 · Ctrl thru 2027 peak 1.0 · 2027

Overview

MLBRP40-MANExt / FA-dealFA 2028

Year	Age	Lvl / Team	G	IP	ERA	FIP	K%	BB%	WAR	MLE rates
2024	29	MIX2 levels	63	59	5.68	4.36	22.2%	9.4%	0.1	K 22.1% · BB 9.5% · FIP 4.48
2025	30	MIX2 levels	69	68	2.13	1.87	34.8%	6.4%	2.2	K 34.3% · BB 6.8% · FIP 1.88
2026	31	MLBNYY	64	69	2.47	2.44	27.1%	6.4%	1.8
2027PROJ	32	MLBNYY	57	60	3.28	3.10	29.1%	6.9%	1.1
2028PROJ	33	MLBNYY	50	52	3.43	3.47	28.3%	7.3%	0.7
2029PROJ	34	MLBNYY	40	42	3.65	3.78	27.4%	7.8%	0.4

Last 3 seasons WAR 4.1 · Next 3 projected WAR 2.3Projected rows: MLB playing time only, park and league context applied.

ContractESTIMATED

Control thru2027Service6.424First FA2028

2027Ext / FA-deal$11M

Skills · percentileStatcast 2026

xwOBA vs90

K%77

FB Velo72

Form1.93 ERA (proj 3.28) · K 25.0% (proj 29.1%) · BB 6.5% (proj 6.9%) ▼ last 90d · 23 IP through Oct 27

CompsJohn Axford (age 32) · Oliver Drake (age 32) · Akinori Otsuka (age 32)

2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONrates below = full-season projection

showingPROJ

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 8577vR 69

ERA3.28

FIP3.10

K%29.1%

BB%6.9%

K-BB%22.2%

Proj IP60

Value2027 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 60 IP

Grades · Statcast · Contract

Scouting Grades

STUF5555

CTRL4545

CMD6060

K†6565

Statcast Percentiles

FB Velo

p7296.1

Whiff%

p8530.8%

p7727.1%

xwOBA vs

p900.263

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status FA

MLB Debut 2019

Service 6.424 yrs.days

Team Control Through 2027

First FA Year 2028

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2027	Ext / FA-deal	$11M	+1.1	$9M	-$2M
Totals		$11M		$9M	-$2M

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to the standard WAR scale.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2027 so far)
2016	21	A MLE	Fort Wayne TinCaps	15	0	21	88	25	2	0	0%	1.4	21.0%	2.7%	18.3%	0.0%	3.43	1.66	—
2016	21	A RAW	Fort Wayne TinCaps	15	0	21	88	25	2	0	0%	1.4	28.4%	2.3%	26.1%	0.0%	3.43	1.00	—
2017	22	MIX MLE	2 levels	45	0	61	250	81	18	2	0%	1.4	24.3%	8.4%	16.0%	1.0%	2.64	2.68	—
2017	22	MIX RAW	2 levels	45	0	61	250	81	18	2	0%	1.4	32.4%	7.2%	25.2%	0.8%	2.64	1.76	—
2018	23	A+ MLE	Lake Elsinore Storm	47	0	69	301	96	29	4	0%	1.5	24.6%	11.1%	13.5%	2.0%	2.73	3.52	—
2018	23	A+ RAW	Lake Elsinore Storm	47	0	69	301	96	29	4	0%	1.5	31.9%	9.6%	22.3%	1.3%	2.73	2.34	—
2019	24	MIX MLE	2 levels	57	0	69	288	100	21	7	0%	1.2	29.0%	7.3%	21.7%	1.5%	3.52	2.40	+1.8
2019	24	MIX RAW	2 levels	57	0	69	288	100	21	7	0%	1.2	34.7%	7.3%	27.4%	2.4%	3.52	2.43	+1.8
2020	25	MLB MLE	San Diego Padres	4	0	6	32	5	2	1	0%	1.6	15.6%	6.2%	9.4%	3.1%	7.11	4.29	+0.0
2020	25	MLB RAW	San Diego Padres	4	0	6	32	5	2	1	0%	1.6	15.6%	6.2%	9.4%	3.1%	7.11	4.52	+0.0
2021	26	MLB MLE	Pittsburgh Pirates	61	0	61	237	77	17	5	0%	1.0	32.5%	7.2%	25.3%	2.3%	2.23	2.52	+1.5
2021	26	MLB RAW	Pittsburgh Pirates	61	0	61	237	77	17	5	0%	1.0	32.5%	7.2%	25.3%	2.1%	2.23	2.47	+1.5
2022	27	MIX MLE	2 levels	48	1	55	222	73	15	4	2%	1.1	32.9%	6.7%	26.2%	2.1%	2.63	2.30	+1.5
2022	27	MIX RAW	2 levels	48	1	55	222	73	15	4	2%	1.1	32.9%	6.8%	26.1%	1.8%	2.63	2.20	+1.5
2023	28	MLB MLE	Pittsburgh Pirates	66	0	67	277	80	17	3	0%	1.0	28.9%	6.1%	22.7%	1.2%	2.00	2.08	+2.0
2023	28	MLB RAW	Pittsburgh Pirates	66	0	67	277	80	17	3	0%	1.0	28.9%	6.1%	22.7%	1.1%	2.00	2.06	+2.0
2024	29	MIX MLE	2 levels	63	0	59	266	59	25	9	0%	0.9	22.1%	9.5%	12.6%	3.7%	5.68	4.48	+0.1
2024	29	MIX MLE	2 levels	63	0	59	266	59	25	9	0%	0.9	22.1%	9.5%	12.6%	3.7%	5.68	4.48	+0.1
2024	29	MIX RAW	2 levels	63	0	59	266	59	25	9	0%	0.9	22.2%	9.4%	12.8%	3.4%	5.68	4.36	+0.1
2025	30	MIX MLE	2 levels	69	0	68	267	93	17	4	0%	1.0	34.3%	6.8%	27.5%	1.5%	2.13	1.88	+2.2
2025	30	MIX MLE	2 levels	69	0	68	267	93	17	4	0%	1.0	34.3%	6.8%	27.5%	1.5%	2.13	1.88	+2.2
2025	30	MIX RAW	2 levels	69	0	68	267	93	17	4	0%	1.0	34.8%	6.4%	28.5%	1.5%	2.13	1.87	+2.2
2026	31	MLB MLE	New York Yankees	64	0	69	280	76	18	4	0%	1.1	27.1%	6.4%	20.7%	1.3%	2.47	2.36	+1.8
2026	31	MLB MLE	New York Yankees	64	0	69	280	76	18	4	0%	1.1	27.1%	6.4%	20.7%	1.3%	2.47	2.36	+1.8
2026	31	MLB RAW	New York Yankees	64	0	69	280	76	18	4	0%	1.1	27.1%	6.4%	20.7%	1.4%	2.47	2.44	+1.8
▸ Career totals (raw MLB only — as recorded)
MLB Career	—			379	0	387	1597	465	115	33	0%	1.0	29.1%	7.2%	21.9%	2.1%	3.03	2.70	+8.6
▸ 2027 season — projected remainder (no 2027 stats recorded)
2027	32	MLB	NYY	57	0	60	253	74	17	6	0%	1.1	29.1%	6.9%	22.2%	2.2%	3.28	3.10	+1.1
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2028	33	MLB MLE	NYY	50	0	52	220	62	16	5	0%	1.0	28.3%	7.3%	20.9%	2.5%	3.34	3.38	+0.7
2029	34	MLB MLE	NYY	40	0	42	178	49	14	5	0%	1.1	27.4%	7.8%	19.5%	2.8%	3.55	3.68	+0.4
2028	33	MLB CTX	NYY	50	0	52	220	62	16	6	0%	1.0	28.3%	7.3%	20.9%	2.6%	3.43	3.47	+0.7
2029	34	MLB CTX	NYY	40	0	42	177	49	14	5	0%	1.1	27.4%	7.8%	19.5%	3.0%	3.65	3.78	+0.4
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		469	0	481	1995	576	145	44	0%	1.0	28.9%	7.3%	21.6%	2.2%	3.12	2.80	+10.1
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		195	0	200	830	240	60	18	0%	1.0	28.9%	7.3%	21.6%	2.2%	3.12	2.80	+4.2
Career	—	MLE		539	1	605	2508	698	190	45	0%	1.1	27.8%	7.6%	20.3%	1.8%	2.93	2.69	+9.7
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		178	0	200	829	231	63	15	0%	1.1	27.8%	7.6%	20.3%	1.8%	2.93	2.69	+4.1

How the minor-league lines were translated

One row per minor-league stint. Open a row to see each step: the raw rate, the park adjustment, the league/level factor, the age adjustment (hitters) and the resulting MLE rate. Factors are the same ones listed on the MLE Factors page.

2019 AAAmarillo Sod Poodles · 58 IPFIP 1.83 → 2.40 (+0.57)K% 35.8% → 29.0%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	35.83%	—	×0.810	29.03%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	6.67%	—	×1.100	7.33%
HR / BF /BF	1.67%	÷1.337	×1.200	1.50%

Factors used: pitcher AA level factors — K ×0.81, BB ×1.10, HR ×1.20. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 167).

Result: FIP 1.83 → 2.40, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2018 A+Lake Elsinore Storm · 69 IPFIP 2.36 → 3.52 (+1.16)K% 31.9% → 24.6%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	31.89%	—	×0.770	24.56%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	9.63%	—	×1.150	11.08%
HR / BF /BF	1.33%	÷0.839	×1.250	1.98%

Factors used: pitcher A+ level factors — K ×0.77, BB ×1.15, HR ×1.25. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 68).

Result: FIP 2.36 → 3.52, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2017 AFort Wayne TinCaps · 34 IPFIP 1.17 → 2.26 (+1.10)K% 38.2% → 28.2%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	38.17%	—	×0.740	28.24%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	6.87%	—	×1.180	8.11%
HR / BF /BF	0.76%	÷1.048	×1.300	0.95%

Factors used: pitcher A level factors — K ×0.74, BB ×1.18, HR ×1.30. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 110).

Result: FIP 1.17 → 2.26, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2017 A+Lake Elsinore Storm · 28 IPFIP 2.32 → 3.13 (+0.81)K% 26.1% → 20.1%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	26.05%	—	×0.770	20.06%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	7.56%	—	×1.150	8.70%
HR / BF /BF	0.84%	÷0.921	×1.250	1.14%

Result: FIP 2.32 → 3.13, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2016 AFort Wayne TinCaps · 21 IPFIP 0.99 → 1.66 (+0.68)K% 28.4% → 21.0%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	28.41%	—	×0.740	21.02%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	2.27%	—	×1.180	2.68%
HR / BF /BF	0.00%	÷0.888	×1.300	0.00%

Result: FIP 0.99 → 1.66, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
David Bednar (OGILVIE)	—	—	3.10	29.1%	6.9%	2.2%	—	3.51	27.9%	20.3%	94	+0.41	—	—	—
John Axford R 2015 · 3.20 FIP	32	SU	3.20	24.8%	11.2%	1.4%	.333	3.97	21.5%	11.1%	141	+0.77	1.90	518	69
Oliver Drake R 2019 · 3.25 FIP	32	SU	3.25	33.5%	8.1%	3.6%	.268	—	—	—	—	—	2.26	317	66
Akinori Otsuka R 2004 · 2.61 FIP	32	SU	2.61	27.9%	6.4%	1.9%	.251	2.78	20.3%	13.4%	155	+0.17	2.39	232	65
Jose Veras R 2013 · 3.51 FIP	32	SU	3.51	23.6%	8.3%	2.5%	.234	4.28	21.9%	10.2%	65	+0.77	3.37	422	62
Fernando Cruz R 2022 · 2.89 FIP	32	SU	2.89	27.4%	10.0%	1.5%	.254	2.76	36.3%	25.3%	181	-0.13	2.50	371	62
Grant Balfour R 2010 · 2.59 FIP	32	SU	2.59	25.2%	6.8%	1.4%	.270	3.50	25.6%	16.7%	199	+0.91	2.04	533	62
Yoshihisa Hirano R 2018 · 3.45 FIP	34	SU	3.45	22.5%	7.3%	2.4%	.242	3.97	24.6%	15.2%	65	+0.52	3.45	132	61
Jumbo Diaz R 2016 · 3.85 FIP	32	SU	3.85	22.3%	9.2%	2.7%	.247	3.28	23.0%	13.8%	141	-0.57	2.80	319	61
Blake Parker R 2017 · 2.52 FIP	32	SU	2.52	33.9%	6.3%	2.7%	.228	4.20	26.6%	18.8%	144	+1.68	2.52	406	61
Matt Miller R 2004 · 2.13 FIP	32	SU	2.13	24.3%	6.6%	0.4%	.265	3.47	19.2%	10.5%	45	+1.34	2.13	101	60
Dale Thayer R 2013 · 3.62 FIP	32	SU	3.62	23.7%	7.4%	2.9%	.287	3.85	20.6%	15.0%	103	+0.23	2.75	239	60
Brendan Donnelly R 2003 · 2.23 FIP	32	SU	2.23	25.7%	7.5%	0.7%	.261	3.85	22.6%	14.9%	171	+1.62	2.23	385	60
Kazuhiro Sasaki R 2000 · 3.93 FIP	32	SU	3.93	29.4%	9.8%	3.8%	.212	2.88	24.9%	19.3%	161	-1.05	2.76	223	60
Jared Hughes R 2017 · 3.28 FIP	32	SU	3.28	19.7%	7.8%	1.6%	.260	3.99	19.3%	10.9%	172	+0.71	3.00	530	60
George Kontos R 2017 · 3.71 FIP	32	SU	3.71	25.2%	6.5%	3.5%	.287	4.41	14.7%	8.6%	97	+0.70	2.56	421	59
Scot Shields R 2007 · 3.58 FIP	32	SU	3.58	24.1%	10.3%	2.2%	.271	4.26	20.3%	7.3%	127	+0.68	2.77	686	59
Jared Burton R 2013 · 3.20 FIP	32	SU	3.20	21.7%	6.0%	2.1%	.279	3.92	18.4%	10.0%	78	+0.72	3.09	367	59
Josh Fields R 2018 · 3.48 FIP	32	SU	3.48	21.4%	6.5%	2.5%	.224	7.56	18.9%	9.5%	25	+4.08	1.80	330	59
Ryan Brasier R 2020 · 2.97 FIP	32	SU	2.97	27.3%	9.1%	1.9%	.324	3.30	23.4%	17.1%	134	+0.33	2.31	426	58
Chris Martin R 2018 · 3.04 FIP	32	SU	3.04	20.9%	1.7%	2.7%	.311	2.92	25.7%	23.1%	117	-0.12	1.76	431	58

Career Comps

Completed MLB careers (no pro action in 2+ yrs) whose totals — actual + projected — most resemble this player's. Pool: 1,234 reliever careers (754 from 1990-2025 + 480 historical, 1901-2023), also matched on career-to-date at the same age. * Historical (Lahman) careers: rates era-adjusted to 2001-24 league levels; WAR is an OGILVIE proxy.

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	2.7	60	28.9%	7.9%	0.84	3.13
J.J. Putz ('14)	2.8	57	25.7%	7.9%	0.79	3.08
Rafael Soriano ('15)	3.2	64	24.9%	7.7%	0.88	2.89
Will Harris ('21)	2.1	60	26.5%	6.7%	0.86	2.94
Jeff Montgomery ('87-'99, 19 WAR*)	4.3	72	26.2%*	7.6%*	1.01*	3.16*
Joe Sambito ('76-'87, 8 WAR*)	3.1	70	26.8%*	7.5%*	1.06*	3.65*
Mike Schooler ('88-'93, 5 WAR*)	1.5	49	26.9%*	8.0%*	0.96*	3.68*