David Bednar — OGILVIE

David Bednar P New York Yankees

Age 31 RHP 6'1" / 250 lbs MLB Svc 5.0 · Ctrl thru 2026 peak 0.8 · 2026

2026 ROS PROJECTION63 act + 5 ip · rates below = ROS only

showingROS

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 8274vR 66

ERA2.97

FIP2.87

K%28.9%

BB%7.0%

K-BB%21.9%

ROS IP5

Value2026 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 69 IP

Grades · Statcast · Arsenal · Contract

Scouting Grades

STUF5555

CTRL4545

CMD6060

K†7070

Statcast Percentiles

FB Velo

p7296.1

Whiff%

p8831.2%

p8027.7%

xwOBA vs

p900.261

CU (18%)

FB-1.9 (41%)

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status Arb-3

MLB Debut 2019

Service 5.424 yrs.days

Team Control Through 2026

First FA Year 2027

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2026ROS	Ext	$0.7M	+0.2	$0.6M	-$0.1M
Totals		$0.7M		$0.6M	-$0.1M

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2026 so far)
2016	21	A MLE	Fort Wayne TinCaps	15	0	21	88	25	2	0	0%	1.4	21.0%	2.7%	18.3%	0.0%	3.43	1.66	—
2016	21	A RAW	Fort Wayne TinCaps	15	0	21	88	25	2	0	0%	1.4	28.4%	2.3%	26.1%	0.0%	3.43	1.00	—
2017	22	MIX MLE	2 levels	45	0	61	250	81	18	2	0%	1.4	24.3%	8.4%	16.0%	1.0%	2.64	2.68	—
2017	22	MIX RAW	2 levels	45	0	61	250	81	18	2	0%	1.4	32.4%	7.2%	25.2%	0.8%	2.64	1.76	—
2018	23	A+ MLE	Lake Elsinore Storm	47	0	69	301	96	29	4	0%	1.5	24.6%	11.1%	13.5%	2.0%	2.73	3.52	—
2018	23	A+ RAW	Lake Elsinore Storm	47	0	69	301	96	29	4	0%	1.5	31.9%	9.6%	22.3%	1.3%	2.73	2.34	—
2019	24	MIX MLE	2 levels	57	0	69	288	100	21	7	0%	1.2	29.0%	7.3%	21.7%	1.5%	3.52	2.40	+1.8
2019	24	MIX RAW	2 levels	57	0	69	288	100	21	7	0%	1.2	34.7%	7.3%	27.4%	2.4%	3.52	2.43	+1.8
2020	25	MLB MLE	San Diego Padres	4	0	6	32	5	2	1	0%	1.6	15.6%	6.2%	9.4%	3.1%	7.11	4.29	+0.0
2020	25	MLB RAW	San Diego Padres	4	0	6	32	5	2	1	0%	1.6	15.6%	6.2%	9.4%	3.1%	7.11	4.52	+0.0
2021	26	MLB MLE	Pittsburgh Pirates	61	0	61	237	77	17	5	0%	1.0	32.5%	7.2%	25.3%	2.3%	2.23	2.52	+1.5
2021	26	MLB RAW	Pittsburgh Pirates	61	0	61	237	77	17	5	0%	1.0	32.5%	7.2%	25.3%	2.1%	2.23	2.47	+1.5
2022	27	MIX MLE	2 levels	48	1	55	222	73	15	4	2%	1.1	32.9%	6.7%	26.2%	2.1%	2.63	2.30	+1.5
2022	27	MIX RAW	2 levels	48	1	55	222	73	15	4	2%	1.1	32.9%	6.8%	26.1%	1.8%	2.63	2.20	+1.5
2023	28	MLB MLE	Pittsburgh Pirates	66	0	67	277	80	17	3	0%	1.0	28.9%	6.1%	22.7%	1.2%	2.00	2.08	+2.0
2023	28	MLB MLE	Pittsburgh Pirates	66	0	67	277	80	17	3	0%	1.0	28.9%	6.1%	22.7%	1.2%	2.00	2.08	+2.0
2023	28	MLB RAW	Pittsburgh Pirates	66	0	67	277	80	17	3	0%	1.0	28.9%	6.1%	22.7%	1.1%	2.00	2.06	+2.0
2024	29	MIX MLE	2 levels	63	0	59	266	59	25	9	0%	0.9	22.1%	9.5%	12.6%	3.7%	5.68	4.48	+0.1
2024	29	MIX MLE	2 levels	63	0	59	266	59	25	9	0%	0.9	22.1%	9.5%	12.6%	3.7%	5.68	4.48	+0.1
2024	29	MIX RAW	2 levels	63	0	59	266	59	25	9	0%	0.9	22.2%	9.4%	12.8%	3.4%	5.68	4.36	+0.1
2025	30	MIX MLE	2 levels	69	0	68	267	93	17	4	0%	1.0	34.3%	6.8%	27.5%	1.5%	2.13	1.88	+2.2
2025	30	MIX MLE	2 levels	69	0	68	267	93	17	4	0%	1.0	34.3%	6.8%	27.5%	1.5%	2.13	1.88	+2.2
2025	30	MIX RAW	2 levels	69	0	68	267	93	17	4	0%	1.0	34.8%	6.4%	28.5%	1.5%	2.13	1.87	+2.2
▸ Career totals (raw MLB only — as recorded)
MLB Career	—			374	0	381	1573	460	113	33	0%	1.0	29.2%	7.2%	22.1%	2.1%	3.07	2.70	+8.4
▸ 2026 season
YTD	31	MLB MLE	New York Yankees	59	0	63	256	71	16	4	0%	1.1	27.7%	6.2%	21.5%	1.5%	2.70	2.35	+1.7
YTD	31	MLB MLE	New York Yankees	59	0	63	256	71	16	4	0%	1.1	27.7%	6.2%	21.5%	1.5%	2.70	2.35	+1.7
▸ 2026 season — so far · projected rest · full
2026	31	MLB RAW	NYY	59	0	63	256	71	16	4	0%	1.1	27.7%	6.2%	21.5%	1.6%	2.70	2.41	+1.6
SO FAR	31	MLB RAW	NYY	59	0	63	256	71	16	4	0%	1.1	27.7%	6.2%	21.5%	1.6%	2.70	2.41	+1.6
ROS	31	MLB MLE	NYY	5	0	5	22	6	2	1	0%	1.0	28.9%	7.0%	21.9%	2.4%	2.97	2.87	+0.1
ROS	31	MLB CTX	NYY	5	0	5	21	6	1	1	0%	1.0	28.9%	7.0%	21.9%	2.6%	3.06	2.96	+0.1
2026 TOT	31	MLB MLE	NYY	—	—	69	278	77	18	5	—	—	27.8%	6.3%	21.5%	1.6%	2.72	2.39	+2.0
FULL	31	MLB A+C	NYY	—	—	69	289	77	18	5	—	—	26.7%	6.1%	20.7%	1.6%	2.73	2.48	+2.0
▸ Career projection (2027+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2027	32	MLB MLE	NYY	50	0	53	224	63	17	5	0%	1.1	28.4%	7.4%	20.9%	2.4%	3.31	3.37	+0.8
2028	33	MLB MLE	NYY	46	0	49	205	56	16	6	0%	1.1	27.5%	7.9%	19.6%	2.7%	3.51	3.65	+0.5
2029	34	MLB MLE	NYY	42	0	44	187	50	16	6	0%	1.1	26.6%	8.4%	18.2%	3.0%	3.78	3.95	+0.3
2027	32	MLB CTX	NYY	50	0	53	224	63	17	6	0%	1.1	28.4%	7.4%	20.9%	2.6%	3.40	3.46	+0.8
2028	33	MLB CTX	NYY	47	0	49	207	57	16	6	0%	1.0	27.5%	7.9%	19.6%	2.9%	3.61	3.75	+0.5
2029	34	MLB CTX	NYY	42	0	44	186	49	16	6	0%	1.0	26.6%	8.4%	18.2%	3.2%	3.89	4.06	+0.3
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		518	0	532	2211	636	163	51	0%	1.0	28.8%	7.4%	21.4%	2.3%	3.22	2.88	+10.6
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		195	0	200	832	239	61	19	0%	1.0	28.8%	7.4%	21.4%	2.3%	3.22	2.88	+4.0
Career	—	MLE		534	1	599	2484	693	188	45	0%	1.1	27.9%	7.6%	20.3%	1.8%	2.96	2.69	+10.1
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		178	0	200	829	231	63	15	0%	1.1	27.9%	7.6%	20.3%	1.8%	2.96	2.69	+3.8

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
David Bednar (OGILVIE)	—	—	3.26	30.4%	7.6%	2.5%	—	3.64	27.5%	19.7%	146	+0.38	—	—	—
Oliver Drake R 2018 · 3.05 FIP	31	SU	3.05	24.4%	7.7%	1.9%	.348	3.25	33.5%	25.4%	80	+0.20	2.26	317	72
Kirby Yates R 2018 · 2.21 FIP	31	SU	2.21	36.0%	6.8%	2.3%	.255	0.66	41.6%	36.7%	61	-1.55	0.66	487	68
Justin Miller R 2018 · 4.24 FIP	31	SU	4.24	27.9%	7.4%	4.7%	.248	4.82	24.8%	18.8%	66	+0.58	2.63	279	68
John Axford R 2015 · 3.20 FIP	32	SU	3.20	24.8%	11.2%	1.4%	.333	3.97	21.5%	11.1%	141	+0.77	3.20	197	68
Pedro Strop R 2016 · 2.56 FIP	31	SU	2.56	32.1%	7.5%	2.2%	.211	3.30	25.5%	16.3%	162	+0.74	2.56	277	68
Greg Holland R 2017 · 3.38 FIP	31	SU	3.38	29.8%	10.6%	2.6%	.248	3.47	25.2%	13.1%	110	+0.09	1.97	268	68
Jake Petricka R 2019 · 3.04 FIP	31	SU	3.04	23.4%	7.7%	1.7%	.323	4.07	18.8%	10.8%	60	+1.03	3.04	252	66
Blake Wood R 2017 · 3.44 FIP	31	SU	3.44	25.3%	9.3%	2.4%	.364	—	—	—	—	—	2.92	210	66
Jumbo Diaz R 2015 · 3.16 FIP	31	SU	3.16	25.2%	6.0%	2.6%	.286	3.65	21.9%	12.2%	152	+0.49	2.80	284	66
Wade Davis R 2017 · 3.17 FIP	31	SU	3.17	32.6%	11.2%	2.6%	.254	3.92	26.1%	14.5%	108	+0.75	2.00	320	66
Luis García R 2018 · 3.05 FIP	31	SU	3.05	25.0%	8.3%	1.8%	.341	4.16	22.5%	13.9%	113	+1.11	2.33	617	66
Josh Fields R 2017 · 3.98 FIP	31	SU	3.98	26.9%	6.3%	4.3%	.216	5.01	20.5%	12.9%	66	+1.03	1.90	238	65
Blake Parker R 2016 · 3.21 FIP	31	SU	3.21	28.1%	8.5%	2.5%	.269	3.73	28.4%	21.3%	195	+0.52	2.52	339	65
Brad Brach R 2017 · 3.36 FIP	31	SU	3.36	25.5%	9.1%	2.3%	.254	3.68	22.8%	11.1%	129	+0.32	2.69	410	64
Mark Lowe R 2015 · 2.37 FIP	32	SU	2.37	28.4%	5.1%	1.9%	.302	5.22	19.2%	9.9%	98	+2.85	2.37	153	64
Sam Dyson R 2019 · 3.21 FIP	31	SU	3.21	22.1%	5.2%	2.4%	.269	—	—	—	—	—	2.66	333	64
Jonathan Broxton R 2015 · 3.67 FIP	31	SU	3.67	24.5%	8.2%	2.9%	.325	3.89	21.7%	13.5%	76	+0.22	3.67	137	64
Jeremy Jeffress R 2019 · 3.49 FIP	31	SU	3.49	20.4%	7.6%	2.1%	.312	3.70	19.3%	6.8%	23	+0.21	2.43	343	64
Fernando Cruz R 2022 · 2.89 FIP	32	SU	2.89	27.4%	10.0%	1.5%	.254	2.76	36.3%	25.3%	181	-0.13	2.50	371	63
Ross Ohlendorf R 2015 · 3.30 FIP	32	SU	3.30	23.7%	7.2%	2.3%	.342	4.93	23.4%	12.7%	66	+1.63	3.30	122	63

Career Comps

Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 133 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	1.0	51	28.3%	7.8%	1.03	3.47
Diego Castillo ('22)	1.3	52	28.1%	8.9%	1.07	3.12
Sean Doolittle ('21)	1.2	49	28.7%	6.2%	1.18	3.31
Keone Kela ('19)	1.1	43	30.1%	9.4%	0.92	3.23
Giovanny Gallegos ('24)	1.5	52	29.4%	6.6%	1.19	3.46
Blake Parker ('21)	1.2	60	26.6%	7.3%	1.40	3.36
Colin Poche ('24)	1.0	52	27.0%	9.2%	1.34	3.63