Colin Holderman — OGILVIE

Colin Holderman P Cleveland Guardians

Age 30 RHP 6'6" / 230 lbs MLB peak 0.1 · 2027 ILInjured 15-Day (D15)

2026 ROS PROJECTION62 act + 1 ip · rates below = ROS only

showingROS

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 10698vR 90

ERA3.96

FIP4.05

K%22.6%

BB%10.1%

K-BB%12.4%

ROS IP1

Value2026 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 63 IP

Grades · Statcast · Arsenal · Contract

Scouting Grades

STUF5555

CTRL3535

CMD4040

K†5555

Statcast Percentiles

FB Velo

p8597.0

Whiff%

p6127.0%

p5222.5%

xwOBA vs

p590.303

FB (56%)

SL (34%)

SI (51%)

CU (10%)

CT-1.5 (0%)

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2026 so far)
2016	20	ROK MLE	Kingsport Mets	13	0	19	83	13	11	1	0%	1.4	10.7%	16.6%	-5.9%	1.7%	3.86	5.22	—
2016	20	ROK RAW	Kingsport Mets	13	0	19	83	13	11	1	0%	1.4	15.7%	13.3%	2.4%	1.2%	3.86	4.17	—
2017	21	MIX MLE	2 levels	8	7	32	138	25	13	2	88%	4.0	13.8%	9.7%	4.1%	1.9%	4.78	4.23	—
2017	21	MIX RAW	2 levels	8	7	32	138	25	13	2	88%	4.0	18.1%	9.4%	8.7%	1.4%	4.78	3.57	—
2019	23	MIX MLE	2 levels	14	13	61	263	45	26	3	93%	4.4	12.7%	11.9%	0.8%	1.7%	3.67	4.48	—
2019	23	MIX RAW	2 levels	14	13	61	263	45	26	3	93%	4.4	17.1%	9.9%	7.2%	1.1%	3.67	3.54	—
2021	25	MIX MLE	2 levels	15	2	24	95	27	8	2	13%	1.6	21.3%	8.7%	12.6%	3.2%	3.38	4.14	—
2021	25	MIX RAW	2 levels	15	2	24	95	27	8	2	13%	1.6	28.4%	8.4%	20.0%	2.1%	3.38	2.93	—
2022	26	MIX MLE	2 levels	38	0	46	187	45	18	2	0%	1.2	22.7%	9.8%	13.0%	1.2%	3.35	3.06	+0.8
2022	26	MIX RAW	2 levels	38	0	46	187	45	18	2	0%	1.2	24.1%	9.6%	14.4%	1.1%	3.35	2.88	+0.9
2023	27	MLB MLE	Pittsburgh Pirates	58	0	56	240	58	18	4	0%	1.0	24.2%	7.5%	16.7%	1.8%	3.86	3.00	+1.0
2023	27	MLB MLE	Pittsburgh Pirates	58	0	56	240	58	18	4	0%	1.0	24.2%	7.5%	16.7%	1.8%	3.86	3.00	+1.0
2023	27	MLB RAW	Pittsburgh Pirates	58	0	56	240	58	18	4	0%	1.0	24.2%	7.5%	16.7%	1.7%	3.86	2.92	+1.1
2024	28	MIX MLE	2 levels	63	1	59	254	66	27	7	2%	0.9	25.1%	11.2%	13.9%	2.9%	3.51	4.00	+0.4
2024	28	MIX MLE	2 levels	63	1	59	254	66	27	7	2%	0.9	25.1%	11.2%	13.9%	2.9%	3.51	4.00	+0.4
2024	28	MIX RAW	2 levels	63	1	59	254	66	27	7	2%	0.9	26.0%	10.6%	15.4%	2.8%	3.51	3.78	+0.5
2025	29	MIX MLE	3 levels	42	1	45	211	42	22	8	2%	1.1	17.1%	10.3%	6.8%	3.8%	6.40	5.06	-0.3
2025	29	MIX MLE	3 levels	42	1	45	211	42	22	8	2%	1.1	17.1%	10.3%	6.8%	3.8%	6.40	5.06	-0.3
2025	29	MIX RAW	3 levels	42	1	45	211	42	22	8	2%	1.1	19.9%	10.4%	9.5%	3.8%	6.40	5.01	-0.2
▸ Career totals (raw MLB only — as recorded)
MLB Career	—			215	0	214	928	206	90	15	0%	1.0	22.2%	9.7%	12.5%	1.6%	3.79	3.35	+3.1
▸ 2026 season
YTD	30	MLB MLE	Cleveland Guardians	60	0	62	267	63	21	2	0%	1.0	22.5%	8.6%	14.0%	0.5%	3.47	2.53	+1.5
YTD	30	MLB MLE	Cleveland Guardians	60	0	62	267	63	21	2	0%	1.0	22.5%	8.6%	14.0%	0.5%	3.47	2.53	+1.5
▸ 2026 season — so far · projected rest · full
2026	30	AAA RAW	CLE	6	0	10	45	13	2	1	0%	1.6	28.9%	4.4%	24.4%	2.2%	7.45	2.44	—
2026	30	MLB RAW	CLE	54	0	53	222	50	19	1	0%	1.0	22.5%	8.6%	14.0%	0.5%	2.73	2.53	+1.3
SO FAR	30	MLB RAW	CLE	54	0	53	222	50	19	1	0%	1.0	22.5%	8.6%	14.0%	0.5%	2.73	2.53	+1.3
ROS	30	MLB MLE	CLE	1	0	1	4	1	0	0	0%	0.9	22.6%	10.1%	12.4%	2.9%	3.96	4.05	+0.0
ROS	30	MLB CTX	CLE	1	0	1	4	1	0	0	0%	1.0	22.6%	10.1%	12.4%	2.9%	3.96	4.05	+0.0
2026 TOT	30	MLB MLE	CLE	—	—	63	271	64	21	2	—	—	23.6%	7.9%	15.7%	0.8%	3.47	2.55	+1.7
FULL	30	MLB A+C	CLE	—	—	54	226	64	21	2	—	—	28.2%	9.5%	18.8%	0.9%	4.10	2.42	+1.4
▸ Career projection (2027+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2027	31	MLB MLE	CLE	49	0	51	217	47	23	6	0%	1.0	21.8%	10.5%	11.3%	2.5%	4.23	4.36	+0.1
2028	32	MLB MLE	CLE	45	0	48	201	42	22	6	0%	1.1	21.0%	10.9%	10.1%	2.8%	4.46	4.61	-0.0
2029	33	MLB MLE	CLE	42	0	44	184	37	21	6	0%	1.0	20.2%	11.3%	8.8%	3.1%	4.72	4.89	-0.2
2027	31	MLB CTX	CLE	47	0	49	207	45	22	5	0%	1.0	21.8%	10.5%	11.3%	2.5%	4.23	4.36	+0.1
2028	32	MLB CTX	CLE	43	0	45	190	40	21	5	0%	1.0	21.0%	10.9%	10.1%	2.8%	4.46	4.61	-0.0
2029	33	MLB CTX	CLE	39	0	41	173	35	20	5	0%	1.1	20.2%	11.3%	8.8%	3.1%	4.72	4.89	-0.2
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		345	0	350	1503	327	153	31	0%	1.0	21.8%	10.1%	11.6%	2.1%	4.05	3.68	+3.6
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		197	0	200	858	187	87	18	0%	1.0	21.8%	10.1%	11.6%	2.1%	4.05	3.68	+2.1
Career	—	MLE		311	24	404	1738	342	176	35	8%	1.3	19.7%	10.1%	9.6%	2.0%	3.99	3.82	+3.0
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		154	12	200	860	169	87	17	8%	1.3	19.7%	10.1%	9.6%	2.0%	3.99	3.82	+1.7

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Colin Holderman (OGILVIE)	—	—	4.70	22.6%	11.1%	3.1%	—	4.61	21.1%	10.2%	142	-0.09	—	—	—
Daniel Hudson R 2017 · 4.07 FIP	30	SU	4.07	24.4%	11.8%	2.8%	.301	4.01	24.1%	15.2%	140	-0.06	1.68	468	80
Shintaro Fujinami R 2023 · 4.09 FIP	29	SU	4.09	23.2%	12.3%	2.5%	.290	4.55	21.2%	-0.6%	51	+0.46	4.09	130	75
Daniel Robert R 2023 · 3.51 FIP	28	SU	3.51	21.9%	10.7%	1.7%	.310	3.09	24.6%	16.4%	87	-0.42	2.32	186	74
Fernando Nieve R 2015 · 4.27 FIP	33	SU	4.27	22.0%	10.5%	3.1%	.290	2.43	26.9%	22.6%	89	-1.84	1.96	112	71
Ryan Cook R 2018 · 3.96 FIP	31	SU	3.96	25.1%	10.8%	2.9%	.280	—	—	—	—	—	3.96	102	69
Dustin Molleken R 2015 · 3.74 FIP	30	SU	3.74	20.4%	11.7%	1.6%	.287	3.90	20.6%	8.4%	77	+0.16	3.38	129	69
AJ Ramos R 2017 · 3.86 FIP	30	SU	3.86	27.9%	12.8%	2.7%	.288	5.02	25.0%	8.0%	20	+1.16	2.55	266	69
Aaron Barrett R 2019 · 3.81 FIP	31	SU	3.81	23.0%	8.1%	3.0%	.246	4.56	19.9%	6.4%	38	+0.75	1.86	119	69
Derek Law R 2021 · 3.63 FIP	30	SU	3.63	21.0%	11.2%	1.6%	.319	3.43	20.2%	12.5%	212	-0.20	2.49	520	68
Jhan Mariñez R 2018 · 4.09 FIP	29	SU	4.09	21.2%	7.9%	3.2%	.331	—	—	—	—	—	3.16	253	68
Jonathan Broxton R 2015 · 3.67 FIP	31	SU	3.67	24.5%	8.2%	2.9%	.325	3.89	21.7%	13.5%	76	+0.22	3.67	137	68
Bryan Shaw R 2018 · 4.36 FIP	30	SU	4.36	21.0%	10.5%	3.1%	.365	4.46	20.0%	9.8%	149	+0.10	2.78	596	68
Danny Farquhar R 2017 · 3.62 FIP	30	SU	3.62	22.3%	11.0%	1.8%	.247	—	—	—	—	—	3.62	224	68
Jake Cousins R 2023 · 4.46 FIP	29	SU	4.46	26.3%	11.4%	3.9%	.379	3.42	34.2%	21.9%	38	-1.04	1.11	160	68
Juan Minaya R 2021 · 3.75 FIP	30	SU	3.75	25.0%	11.8%	2.3%	.272	4.79	17.9%	6.1%	86	+1.04	3.20	446	68
Wirfin Obispo R 2015 · 4.80 FIP	30	SU	4.80	18.6%	12.2%	3.1%	.292	1.31	28.6%	24.5%	126	-3.49	1.30	218	67
Arquimedes Caminero R 2016 · 4.45 FIP	29	SU	4.45	17.9%	11.4%	2.6%	.314	4.62	18.6%	7.5%	38	+0.17	3.54	173	67
Tommy Nance R 2021 · 3.96 FIP	30	SU	3.96	24.9%	8.8%	3.4%	.228	3.43	23.9%	16.6%	99	-0.53	2.12	354	67
Bryan Morris R 2017 · 3.60 FIP	30	SU	3.60	16.0%	9.6%	1.1%	.333	—	—	—	—	—	3.48	102	67
Blake Wood R 2016 · 3.76 FIP	30	SU	3.76	24.5%	10.6%	2.5%	.307	3.44	25.3%	16.0%	74	-0.32	2.92	210	67

Career Comps

Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 133 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	1.0	48	21.5%	11.0%	1.11	4.50
José Ruiz ('24)	1.3	52	22.2%	10.4%	1.41	4.41
José Cisnero ('23)	1.1	42	24.8%	11.3%	0.94	3.84
Jacob Barnes ('24)	1.5	42	22.1%	9.6%	1.21	4.58
Miguel Castro ('23)	2.1	59	20.8%	12.0%	1.04	3.99
Keegan Thompson ('24)	1.1	57	23.0%	11.3%	1.19	3.64
Noé Ramirez ('22)	1.3	52	24.8%	9.0%	1.33	4.19