Colin Holderman

P Cleveland Guardians

Age 31 RHP 6'6" / 230 lbs MLB peak 0.3 · 2027

Overview

MLBRP40-MAN

Year	Age	Lvl / Team	G	GS	IP	ERA	FIP	K%	BB%	WAR	MLE rates
2024	28	MIX2 levels	63	1	59	3.51	3.78	26.0%	10.6%	0.5	K 25.1% · BB 11.2% · FIP 4.00
2025	29	MIX3 levels	42	1	45	6.40	5.01	19.9%	10.4%	-0.2	K 17.4% · BB 10.3% · FIP 5.04
2026	30	MIX2 levels	61	0	62	3.90	2.60	23.3%	8.5%	1.5	K 22.5% · BB 8.6% · FIP 2.53
2027PROJ	31	MLBCLE	48	0	50	4.11	4.09	23.5%	10.2%	0.3
2028PROJ95% MLB	32	MLBCLE	32	0	34	4.25	4.35	22.7%	10.5%	0.1
2029PROJ95% MLB	33	MLBCLE	22	0	23	4.48	4.63	21.8%	11.0%	-0.0

Last 3 seasons WAR 1.8 · Next 3 projected WAR 0.3Projected rows: MLB playing time only, park and league context applied.

Contract

No contract data on file.

Skills · percentileStatcast 2026

FB Velo85

xwOBA vs59

K%52

Form6.75 ERA (proj 4.11) · K 15.0% (proj 23.5%) · BB 8.3% (proj 10.2%) ▼▼ last 90d · 11 IP through Oct 27

CompsMike Broadway (age 31) · Matt Bush (age 31) · Joe Nelson (age 31)

2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONrates below = full-season projection

showingPROJ

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 10799vR 91

ERA4.11

FIP4.09

K%23.5%

BB%10.2%

K-BB%13.3%

Proj IP50

Value2027 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 50 IP

Grades · Statcast · Contract

Scouting Grades

STUF5555

CTRL3535

CMD4040

K†5555

Statcast Percentiles

FB Velo

p8597.0

Whiff%

p6127.0%

p5222.5%

xwOBA vs

p590.303

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to the standard WAR scale.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2027 so far)
2016	20	ROK MLE	Kingsport Mets	13	0	19	83	13	11	1	0%	1.4	10.7%	16.6%	-5.9%	1.7%	3.86	5.22	—
2016	20	ROK RAW	Kingsport Mets	13	0	19	83	13	11	1	0%	1.4	15.7%	13.3%	2.4%	1.2%	3.86	4.17	—
2017	21	MIX MLE	2 levels	8	7	32	138	25	13	2	88%	4.0	13.8%	9.7%	4.1%	1.9%	4.78	4.23	—
2017	21	MIX RAW	2 levels	8	7	32	138	25	13	2	88%	4.0	18.1%	9.4%	8.7%	1.4%	4.78	3.57	—
2019	23	MIX MLE	2 levels	14	13	61	263	45	26	3	93%	4.4	12.7%	11.9%	0.8%	1.7%	3.67	4.48	—
2019	23	MIX RAW	2 levels	14	13	61	263	45	26	3	93%	4.4	17.1%	9.9%	7.2%	1.1%	3.67	3.54	—
2021	25	MIX MLE	2 levels	15	2	24	95	27	8	2	13%	1.6	21.3%	8.7%	12.6%	3.2%	3.38	4.14	—
2021	25	MIX RAW	2 levels	15	2	24	95	27	8	2	13%	1.6	28.4%	8.4%	20.0%	2.1%	3.38	2.93	—
2022	26	MIX MLE	2 levels	38	0	46	187	45	18	2	0%	1.2	22.7%	9.8%	13.0%	1.2%	3.35	3.06	+0.8
2022	26	MIX RAW	2 levels	38	0	46	187	45	18	2	0%	1.2	24.1%	9.6%	14.4%	1.1%	3.35	2.88	+0.9
2023	27	MLB MLE	Pittsburgh Pirates	58	0	56	240	58	18	4	0%	1.0	24.2%	7.5%	16.7%	1.8%	3.86	3.00	+1.0
2023	27	MLB RAW	Pittsburgh Pirates	58	0	56	240	58	18	4	0%	1.0	24.2%	7.5%	16.7%	1.7%	3.86	2.92	+1.1
2024	28	MIX MLE	2 levels	63	1	59	254	66	27	7	2%	0.9	25.1%	11.2%	13.9%	2.9%	3.51	4.00	+0.4
2024	28	MIX MLE	2 levels	63	1	59	254	66	27	7	2%	0.9	25.1%	11.2%	13.9%	2.9%	3.51	4.00	+0.4
2024	28	MIX RAW	2 levels	63	1	59	254	66	27	7	2%	0.9	26.0%	10.6%	15.4%	2.8%	3.51	3.78	+0.5
2025	29	MIX MLE	3 levels	42	1	45	211	42	22	8	2%	1.1	17.4%	10.3%	7.1%	3.8%	6.40	5.04	-0.3
2025	29	MIX MLE	3 levels	42	1	45	211	42	22	8	2%	1.1	17.4%	10.3%	7.1%	3.8%	6.40	5.04	-0.3
2025	29	MIX RAW	3 levels	42	1	45	211	42	22	8	2%	1.1	19.9%	10.4%	9.5%	3.8%	6.40	5.01	-0.2
2026	30	MIX MLE	2 levels	61	0	62	270	63	23	2	0%	1.0	22.5%	8.6%	14.0%	0.5%	3.90	2.53	+1.5
2026	30	MIX MLE	2 levels	61	0	62	270	63	23	2	0%	1.0	22.5%	8.6%	14.0%	0.5%	3.90	2.53	+1.5
2026	30	MIX RAW	2 levels	61	0	62	270	63	23	2	0%	1.0	23.3%	8.5%	14.8%	0.7%	3.90	2.60	+1.5
▸ Career totals (raw MLB only — as recorded)
MLB Career	—			215	0	214	928	206	90	15	0%	1.0	22.2%	9.7%	12.5%	1.6%	3.79	3.35	+3.1
▸ 2027 season — projected remainder (no 2027 stats recorded)
2027	31	MLB	CLE	48	0	50	211	50	21	5	0%	1.0	23.5%	10.2%	13.3%	2.4%	4.11	4.09	+0.3
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2028	32	MLB MLE	CLE	34	0	36	150	34	16	4	0%	1.0	22.7%	10.5%	12.1%	2.6%	4.25	4.35	+0.1
2029	33	MLB MLE	CLE	23	0	24	100	22	11	3	0%	1.0	21.8%	11.0%	10.8%	2.9%	4.48	4.63	-0.0
2028	32	MLB CTX	CLE	32	0	34	144	33	15	4	0%	1.1	22.7%	10.5%	12.1%	2.6%	4.25	4.35	+0.1
2029	33	MLB CTX	CLE	22	0	23	97	21	11	3	0%	1.0	21.8%	11.0%	10.8%	2.9%	4.48	4.63	-0.0
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		269	0	270	1166	259	116	22	0%	1.0	22.2%	9.9%	12.3%	1.8%	3.90	3.49	+3.4
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		199	0	200	863	192	86	16	0%	1.0	22.2%	9.9%	12.3%	1.8%	3.90	3.49	+2.5
Career	—	MLE		312	24	404	1741	344	176	35	8%	1.3	19.7%	10.1%	9.6%	2.0%	4.05	3.81	+3.1
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		154	12	200	862	170	87	17	8%	1.3	19.7%	10.1%	9.6%	2.0%	4.05	3.81	+2.3

How the minor-league lines were translated

One row per minor-league stint. Open a row to see each step: the raw rate, the park adjustment, the league/level factor, the age adjustment (hitters) and the resulting MLE rate. Factors are the same ones listed on the MLE Factors page.

2026 AAAColumbus Clippers · 10 IPFIP 3.01 → 3.34 (+0.33)K% 27.1% → 23.3%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	27.08%	—	×0.860	23.29%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	8.33%	—	×0.900	7.50%
HR / BF /BF	2.08%	÷1.000	×1.100	2.29%

Factors used: pitcher AAA level factors (Triple-A 2023+ robo-zone set: walks improve on promotion) — K ×0.86, BB ×0.90, HR ×1.10. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 100).

Result: FIP 3.01 → 3.34, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2025 AAAIndianapolis Indians · 18 IPFIP 4.03 → 4.63 (+0.60)K% 25.6% → 22.0%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	25.61%	—	×0.860	22.02%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	8.54%	—	×0.900	7.68%
HR / BF /BF	3.66%	÷0.915	×1.100	4.40%

Result: FIP 4.03 → 4.63, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2024 AAAIndianapolis Indians · 8 IPFIP 2.96 → 3.64 (+0.67)K% 32.3% → 27.7%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	32.26%	—	×0.860	27.74%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	6.45%	—	×0.900	5.81%
HR / BF /BF	3.23%	÷0.909	×1.100	3.91%

Result: FIP 2.96 → 3.64, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2022 AAAIndianapolis Indians · 17 IPFIP 3.04 → 3.53 (+0.49)K% 30.4% → 26.8%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	30.43%	—	×0.880	26.78%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	7.25%	—	×1.050	7.61%
HR / BF /BF	2.90%	÷1.013	×1.100	3.15%

Factors used: pitcher AAA level factors — K ×0.88, BB ×1.05, HR ×1.10. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 103).

Result: FIP 3.04 → 3.53, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2021 AABinghamton Rumble Ponies · 19 IPFIP 3.32 → 4.14 (+0.82)K% 26.3% → 21.3%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	26.32%	—	×0.810	21.32%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	7.89%	—	×1.100	8.68%
HR / BF /BF	2.63%	÷0.995	×1.200	3.18%

Factors used: pitcher AA level factors — K ×0.81, BB ×1.10, HR ×1.20. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 99).

Result: FIP 3.32 → 4.14, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2019 AColumbia Fireflies · 55 IPFIP 3.61 → 4.48 (+0.86)K% 17.2% → 12.7%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	17.23%	—	×0.740	12.75%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	10.08%	—	×1.180	11.90%
HR / BF /BF	1.26%	÷0.949	×1.300	1.73%

Factors used: pitcher A level factors — K ×0.74, BB ×1.18, HR ×1.30. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 90).

Result: FIP 3.61 → 4.48, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2019 A+St. Lucie Mets · 6 IPFIP 2.76 → 3.22 (+0.46)K% 16.0% → 12.3%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	16.00%	—	×0.770	12.32%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	8.00%	—	×1.150	9.20%
HR / BF /BF	0.00%	÷1.122	×1.250	0.00%

Factors used: pitcher A+ level factors — K ×0.77, BB ×1.15, HR ×1.25. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 124).

Result: FIP 2.76 → 3.22, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2017 AColumbia Fireflies · 31 IPFIP 3.38 → 4.23 (+0.85)K% 18.7% → 13.8%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	18.66%	—	×0.740	13.81%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	8.21%	—	×1.180	9.69%
HR / BF /BF	1.49%	÷0.995	×1.300	1.95%

Result: FIP 3.38 → 4.23, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Colin Holderman (OGILVIE)	—	—	4.09	23.5%	10.2%	2.4%	—	4.46	22.3%	11.6%	59	+0.37	—	—	—
Mike Broadway R 2018 · 4.65 FIP	31	SU	4.65	23.0%	10.6%	3.9%	.282	—	—	—	—	—	1.74	195	72
Matt Bush R 2017 · 3.60 FIP	31	SU	3.60	24.2%	7.9%	2.8%	.321	4.72	17.6%	4.6%	23	+1.12	2.87	249	71
Joe Nelson R 2006 · 3.91 FIP	31	SU	3.91	22.8%	10.4%	2.6%	.258	4.05	23.4%	12.8%	94	+0.14	3.08	139	71
Pedro Báez R 2019 · 3.14 FIP	31	SU	3.14	25.0%	8.0%	2.1%	.207	4.30	18.6%	8.6%	17	+1.16	2.29	356	71
Chris Hatcher R 2016 · 4.61 FIP	31	SU	4.61	23.8%	9.4%	4.2%	.283	4.69	22.0%	13.8%	96	+0.08	2.51	246	70
Jeff Fulchino R 2011 · 4.44 FIP	31	SU	4.44	20.4%	11.1%	3.0%	.302	—	—	—	—	—	3.36	178	69
Brian Schlitter R 2016 · 3.28 FIP	30	SU	3.28	20.6%	10.8%	1.0%	.333	3.81	14.4%	6.6%	110	+0.53	3.27	300	69
Tom Wilhelmsen R 2015 · 3.07 FIP	31	SU	3.07	22.5%	9.7%	1.1%	.298	5.78	13.8%	4.1%	86	+2.71	2.72	398	69
Manny Acosta R 2012 · 4.49 FIP	31	SU	4.49	21.3%	11.1%	3.2%	.295	—	—	—	—	—	3.08	350	69
Jose Veras R 2012 · 3.39 FIP	31	SU	3.39	26.3%	13.0%	1.6%	.316	3.90	22.7%	12.7%	128	+0.51	3.37	422	69
Fernando Rodriguez Jr. R 2015 · 3.34 FIP	31	SU	3.34	26.5%	9.6%	2.3%	.241	3.89	23.3%	13.2%	105	+0.55	3.34	335	69
Aaron Barrett R 2019 · 3.81 FIP	31	SU	3.81	23.0%	8.1%	3.0%	.246	4.56	19.9%	6.4%	38	+0.75	1.86	160	68
Jim Miller R 2012 · 4.56 FIP	30	SU	4.56	20.9%	11.8%	3.1%	.243	3.95	18.8%	14.7%	74	-0.61	3.95	140	68
Brian Sanches R 2010 · 4.24 FIP	31	SU	4.24	21.3%	10.6%	2.9%	.217	4.35	19.6%	8.5%	62	+0.11	3.39	229	68
Neil Wagner R 2016 · 4.05 FIP	32	SU	4.05	19.8%	12.3%	1.9%	.360	3.11	20.7%	12.1%	54	-0.94	3.11	135	67
Dustin Molleken R 2016 · 4.04 FIP	31	SU	4.04	19.6%	12.1%	1.9%	.276	3.38	24.3%	11.9%	16	-0.66	3.38	129	67
Ryan Brasier R 2019 · 4.12 FIP	31	SU	4.12	25.3%	8.3%	3.8%	.278	3.56	24.3%	18.2%	99	-0.56	2.31	426	67
Tommy Nance R 2022 · 3.28 FIP	31	SU	3.28	29.1%	9.2%	2.7%	.345	2.75	23.4%	18.0%	118	-0.53	2.08	360	67
Brad Brach R 2017 · 3.36 FIP	31	SU	3.36	25.5%	9.1%	2.3%	.254	3.68	22.8%	11.1%	129	+0.32	2.69	570	66
Mike DeJean R 2002 · 3.80 FIP	31	SU	3.80	19.9%	9.5%	2.1%	.265	3.66	19.6%	10.5%	206	-0.14	2.82	622	66

Career Comps

Completed MLB careers (no pro action in 2+ yrs) whose totals — actual + projected — most resemble this player's. Pool: 1,234 reliever careers (754 from 1990-2025 + 480 historical, 1901-2023), also matched on career-to-date at the same age. * Historical (Lahman) careers: rates era-adjusted to 2001-24 league levels; WAR is an OGILVIE proxy.

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	1.6	40	22.4%	10.3%	0.75	3.94
Ray Searage ('81-'90, 4 WAR*)	1.4	41	21.0%*	10.8%*	0.84*	3.70*
Marc Rzepczynski ('18)	2.2	48	21.6%	10.8%	0.75	3.89
Cory Gearrin ('20)	1.5	51	22.0%	10.2%	0.68	3.61
Cam Bedrosian ('21)	1.5	50	24.0%	10.2%	0.92	3.81
Mark Dewey ('90-'96, 3 WAR*)	1.2	42	18.7%*	9.6%*	0.80*	3.89*
Ed Vosberg ('86-'02, 1 WAR*)	1.2	47	21.0%*	9.6%*	0.86*	4.06*