Colin Holderman
P
Cleveland Guardians
Age 30
RHP
6'6" / 230 lbs
MLB
peak 0.1 · 2027
2026 ROS PROJECTION45 act + 20 ip · rates below = ROS only
wRC+ AGAINSTvL 10495vR 85
ERA3.59
FIP3.69
K%25.2%
BB%10.4%
K-BB%14.8%
ROS IP20
Value2026 · WAR
Runs saved vs league avg · 65 IP
Grades · Statcast · Arsenal · Contract
Statcast Percentiles
FB Velo
p9097.4
Whiff%
p6727.9%
K%
p8328.3%
xwOBA vs
p900.274
FB (56%)
SL (34%)
SI (51%)
CU (10%)
CT-1.5 (0%)
Contract
No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.
Career Stats + Projections
Viewactual = stats as recorded (seasons combined) + projected real-world MLB lines · MLE = level/park-neutral translations
Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed
Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | G | GS | IP | BF | K | BB | HR | GS% | IP/G | K% | BB% | K-BB% | HR% | ERA | FIP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2016 | 20 | ROK | Kingsport Mets | 13 | 0 | 19 | 83 | 13 | 11 | 1 | 0% | 1.4 | 10.7% | 16.6% | -5.9% | 1.7% | 3.86 | 5.22 | — |
| 2016 | 20 | ROK | Kingsport Mets | 13 | 0 | 19 | 83 | 13 | 11 | 1 | 0% | 1.4 | 15.7% | 13.3% | 2.4% | 1.2% | 3.86 | 4.17 | — |
| 2017 | 21 | MIX | 2 levels | 8 | 7 | 32 | 138 | 25 | 13 | 2 | 88% | 4.0 | 13.8% | 9.7% | 4.1% | 2.0% | 4.78 | 4.24 | — |
| 2017 | 21 | MIX | 2 levels | 8 | 7 | 32 | 138 | 25 | 13 | 2 | 88% | 4.0 | 18.1% | 9.4% | 8.7% | 1.4% | 4.78 | 3.57 | — |
| 2019 | 23 | MIX | 2 levels | 14 | 13 | 61 | 263 | 45 | 26 | 3 | 93% | 4.4 | 12.7% | 11.9% | 0.8% | 1.8% | 3.67 | 4.53 | — |
| 2019 | 23 | MIX | 2 levels | 14 | 13 | 61 | 263 | 45 | 26 | 3 | 93% | 4.4 | 17.1% | 9.9% | 7.2% | 1.1% | 3.67 | 3.54 | — |
| 2021 | 25 | MIX | 2 levels | 15 | 2 | 24 | 95 | 27 | 8 | 2 | 13% | 1.6 | 21.3% | 8.7% | 12.6% | 3.2% | 3.38 | 4.15 | — |
| 2021 | 25 | MIX | 2 levels | 15 | 2 | 24 | 95 | 27 | 8 | 2 | 13% | 1.6 | 28.4% | 8.4% | 20.0% | 2.1% | 3.38 | 2.93 | — |
| 2022 | 26 | MIX | 2 levels | 38 | 0 | 46 | 187 | 45 | 18 | 2 | 0% | 1.2 | 22.7% | 9.8% | 13.0% | 1.1% | 3.35 | 3.05 | +0.8 |
| 2022 | 26 | MIX | 2 levels | 38 | 0 | 46 | 187 | 45 | 18 | 2 | 0% | 1.2 | 24.1% | 9.6% | 14.4% | 1.1% | 3.35 | 2.88 | +0.9 |
| 2023 | 27 | MLB | Pittsburgh Pirates | 58 | 0 | 56 | 240 | 58 | 18 | 4 | 0% | 1.0 | 24.2% | 7.5% | 16.7% | 1.7% | 3.86 | 2.93 | +1.1 |
| 2023 | 27 | MLB | Pittsburgh Pirates | 58 | 0 | 56 | 240 | 58 | 18 | 4 | 0% | 1.0 | 24.2% | 7.5% | 16.7% | 1.7% | 3.86 | 2.92 | +1.1 |
| 2024 | 28 | MIX | 2 levels | 63 | 1 | 59 | 254 | 66 | 27 | 7 | 2% | 0.9 | 25.1% | 11.2% | 13.9% | 2.7% | 3.51 | 3.89 | +0.5 |
| 2024 | 28 | MIX | 2 levels | 63 | 1 | 59 | 254 | 66 | 27 | 7 | 2% | 0.9 | 26.0% | 10.6% | 15.4% | 2.8% | 3.51 | 3.78 | +0.5 |
| 2025 | 29 | MIX | 3 levels | 42 | 1 | 45 | 211 | 42 | 22 | 8 | 2% | 1.1 | 17.6% | 10.8% | 6.8% | 3.9% | 6.40 | 5.11 | -0.3 |
| 2025 | 29 | MIX | 3 levels | 42 | 1 | 45 | 211 | 42 | 22 | 8 | 2% | 1.1 | 19.9% | 10.4% | 9.5% | 3.8% | 6.40 | 5.01 | -0.2 |
| ▸ 2026 Season | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2026 | 30 | MLB | Cleveland Guardians | 41 | 0 | 45 | 183 | 52 | 13 | 2 | 0% | 1.1 | 28.3% | 8.0% | 20.3% | 0.7% | 3.00 | 2.12 | +1.3 |
| ROS | 30 | MLB | CLE | 19 | 0 | 20 | 83 | 21 | 9 | 2 | 0% | 1.0 | 25.2% | 10.4% | 14.8% | 2.6% | 3.59 | 3.69 | +0.2 |
| ROS | 30 | MLB | CLE | 19 | 0 | 20 | 84 | 21 | 9 | 2 | 0% | 1.1 | 25.2% | 10.4% | 14.8% | 2.6% | 3.59 | 3.69 | +0.2 |
| 2026 TOT | 30 | MLB | CLE | — | — | 65 | 266 | 73 | 22 | 4 | — | — | 27.4% | 8.1% | 19.3% | 1.5% | 3.18 | 2.60 | +1.6 |
| 2026 FULL | 30 | MLB | CLE | — | — | 55 | 232 | 73 | 22 | 4 | — | — | 31.4% | 9.3% | 22.1% | 1.8% | 3.74 | 2.60 | +1.3 |
| ▸ 2027+ Projections WITH CONTEXT · MLB TIME ONLY ⓘ | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 31 | MLB | CLE | 49 | 0 | 51 | 217 | 52 | 23 | 6 | 0% | 1.0 | 23.8% | 10.8% | 13.0% | 2.8% | 4.25 | 4.38 | +0.1 |
| 2028 | 32 | MLB | CLE | 45 | 0 | 48 | 201 | 46 | 22 | 6 | 0% | 1.1 | 23.0% | 11.2% | 11.8% | 3.1% | 4.48 | 4.63 | -0.0 |
| 2029 | 33 | MLB | CLE | 42 | 0 | 44 | 184 | 41 | 21 | 6 | 0% | 1.0 | 22.2% | 11.6% | 10.5% | 3.3% | 4.74 | 4.91 | -0.2 |
| 2027 | 31 | MLB | CLE | 47 | 0 | 49 | 207 | 49 | 22 | 6 | 0% | 1.0 | 23.8% | 10.8% | 13.0% | 2.8% | 4.25 | 4.38 | +0.1 |
| 2028 | 32 | MLB | CLE | 43 | 0 | 45 | 190 | 44 | 21 | 6 | 0% | 1.0 | 23.0% | 11.2% | 11.8% | 3.1% | 4.48 | 4.63 | -0.0 |
| 2029 | 33 | MLB | CLE | 39 | 0 | 41 | 173 | 38 | 20 | 6 | 0% | 1.1 | 22.2% | 11.6% | 10.5% | 3.3% | 4.74 | 4.91 | -0.2 |
| ▸ Career (MLB actual + context projections) | |||||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | 344 | 0 | 352 | 1498 | 348 | 155 | 35 | 0% | 1.0 | 23.2% | 10.3% | 12.9% | 2.3% | 4.00 | 3.71 | +6.9 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 195 | 0 | 200 | 852 | 198 | 88 | 20 | 0% | 1.0 | 23.2% | 10.3% | 12.9% | 2.3% | 4.00 | 3.71 | +3.9 | ||
| Career | — | 292 | 24 | 387 | 1654 | 335 | 169 | 35 | 8% | 1.3 | 20.2% | 10.2% | 10.0% | 2.1% | 3.96 | 3.83 | +7.1 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 151 | 12 | 200 | 856 | 173 | 87 | 18 | 8% | 1.3 | 20.2% | 10.2% | 10.0% | 2.1% | 3.96 | 3.83 | +3.7 | ||
Career Path Comps
What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection
| Profile at Match Age | Next 3 Yrs | Career | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Comp | Age | Role | FIP | K% | BB% | HR/BF | BABIP | FIP | K% | K-BB% | IP | ΔFIP | Low FIP | IP | Match |
| Colin Holderman (OGILVIE) | — | — | 4.70 | 22.9% | 11.4% | 3.1% | — | 4.63 | 23.1% | 11.9% | 142 | -0.07 | — | — | — |
| Daniel Hudson R 2026 · 3.97 FIP | 30 | SU | 3.97 | 24.4% | 11.8% | 2.6% | .301 | 4.06 | 24.1% | 15.2% | 140 | +0.09 | 1.74 | 468 | 76 |
| Fernando Nieve R 2029 · 4.17 FIP | 33 | SU | 4.17 | 22.0% | 10.5% | 2.9% | .290 | 2.37 | 26.9% | 22.6% | 89 | -1.80 | 2.08 | 112 | 69 |
| Ryan Cook R 2027 · 4.04 FIP | 31 | SU | 4.04 | 25.1% | 10.8% | 3.1% | .280 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.04 | 102 | 69 |
| Jonathan Broxton R 2027 · 3.57 FIP | 31 | SU | 3.57 | 24.5% | 8.2% | 2.7% | .325 | 3.78 | 21.7% | 13.5% | 76 | +0.21 | 3.57 | 137 | 69 |
| Tommy Nance R 2026 · 3.85 FIP | 30 | SU | 3.85 | 24.9% | 8.8% | 3.2% | .228 | 3.40 | 24.3% | 16.7% | 99 | -0.45 | 2.23 | 367 | 69 |
| Aaron Barrett R 2027 · 3.66 FIP | 31 | SU | 3.66 | 23.0% | 8.1% | 2.7% | .246 | 4.50 | 19.9% | 6.4% | 38 | +0.84 | 1.86 | 119 | 69 |
| AJ Ramos R 2026 · 3.86 FIP | 30 | SU | 3.86 | 27.9% | 12.8% | 2.7% | .288 | 5.03 | 25.0% | 8.0% | 20 | +1.17 | 2.55 | 266 | 68 |
| Blake Wood R 2026 · 3.79 FIP | 30 | SU | 3.79 | 24.5% | 10.6% | 2.6% | .307 | 3.52 | 25.3% | 16.0% | 74 | -0.27 | 3.05 | 210 | 67 |
| David Hernandez R 2026 · 4.32 FIP | 30 | SU | 4.32 | 22.9% | 7.6% | 4.0% | .287 | 3.20 | 24.9% | 18.4% | 192 | -1.12 | 2.56 | 268 | 66 |
| Dustin Molleken R 2026 · 3.61 FIP | 30 | SU | 3.61 | 20.4% | 11.7% | 1.4% | .287 | 4.00 | 20.6% | 8.4% | 77 | +0.39 | 3.35 | 129 | 65 |
| Juan Minaya R 2026 · 3.69 FIP | 30 | SU | 3.69 | 25.0% | 11.8% | 2.2% | .272 | 4.69 | 18.0% | 5.9% | 86 | +1.00 | 3.17 | 446 | 65 |
| Erik Davis R 2026 · 4.18 FIP | 30 | SU | 4.18 | 22.2% | 11.1% | 2.8% | .349 | 3.44 | 17.4% | 8.5% | 65 | -0.74 | 3.07 | 227 | 65 |
| Bryan Shaw R 2026 · 4.13 FIP | 30 | SU | 4.13 | 21.0% | 10.5% | 2.7% | .365 | 4.35 | 20.0% | 9.8% | 149 | +0.22 | 2.78 | 596 | 64 |
| Jhan Mariñez R 2025 · 4.16 FIP | 29 | SU | 4.16 | 21.2% | 7.9% | 3.4% | .331 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.23 | 253 | 64 |
| Derek Law R 2026 · 3.60 FIP | 30 | SU | 3.60 | 21.0% | 11.2% | 1.6% | .319 | 3.43 | 20.2% | 12.5% | 212 | -0.17 | 2.50 | 520 | 64 |
| Gerardo Reyes R 2026 · 4.83 FIP | 30 | SU | 4.83 | 26.4% | 13.5% | 4.1% | .320 | 5.91 | 28.1% | 12.5% | 44 | +1.08 | 3.24 | 371 | 63 |
| Danny Farquhar R 2026 · 3.57 FIP | 30 | SU | 3.57 | 22.3% | 11.0% | 1.7% | .247 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.57 | 224 | 63 |
| Rubby De La Rosa R 2026 · 4.04 FIP | 30 | SU | 4.04 | 27.7% | 8.0% | 4.1% | .269 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.97 | 281 | 63 |
| Wirfin Obispo R 2026 · 4.87 FIP | 30 | SU | 4.87 | 18.6% | 12.2% | 3.3% | .292 | 1.30 | 28.6% | 24.5% | 126 | -3.57 | 1.30 | 218 | 63 |
| Andrew Robinson R 2025 · 4.39 FIP | 29 | SU | 4.39 | 23.4% | 8.8% | 3.9% | .245 | — | — | — | — | — | 2.96 | 160 | 63 |
Career Comps
Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 327 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).
| Player | Yrs | IP/yr | K% | BB% | HR/9 | ERA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION | 4 | 49 | 23.0% | 11.2% | 1.19 | 4.51 |
| José Ruiz ('24) | 5 | 52 | 22.2% | 10.4% | 1.41 | 4.41 |
| Fernando Rodney ('19) | 5 | 59 | 24.6% | 11.8% | 0.88 | 4.21 |
| José Cisnero ('23) | 5 | 42 | 24.8% | 11.3% | 0.94 | 3.84 |
| Keegan Thompson ('24) | 4 | 57 | 23.0% | 11.3% | 1.19 | 3.64 |
| Lucas Sims ('24) | 6 | 47 | 27.6% | 11.6% | 1.24 | 4.22 |
| Jacob Barnes ('24) | 7 | 42 | 22.1% | 9.6% | 1.21 | 4.58 |