Zach King prospect projection, MLE, ETA

Zach King P Beloit Sky Carp

Age 28 LHP 6'6" / 228 lbs A+ peak 0.3 · 2026

2026 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONpark-neutral Marcel · 50 proj IP

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 110118vR 126

ERA4.89

FIP4.89

K%19.6%

BB%11.3%

K-BB%8.3%

ROS IP50

Value2026 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 50 IP

Grades · Contract

Scouting Grades

K†4545

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2026 so far)
2019	21	ROK MLE	GCL Marlins	6	3	16	62	17	7	0	50%	2.7	18.6%	14.1%	4.5%	0.0%	1.65	3.31	—
2019	21	ROK RAW	GCL Marlins	6	3	16	62	17	7	0	50%	2.7	27.4%	11.3%	16.1%	0.0%	1.65	2.30	—
2021	23	A+ MLE	Beloit Snappers	16	16	78	358	79	33	14	100%	4.9	17.0%	10.6%	6.4%	4.5%	5.88	5.49	—
2021	23	A+ RAW	Beloit Snappers	16	16	78	358	79	33	14	100%	4.9	22.1%	9.2%	12.8%	3.9%	5.88	4.68	—
2022	24	MIX MLE	2 levels	23	23	111	495	133	57	12	100%	4.8	21.1%	12.9%	8.1%	3.0%	5.03	4.63	—
2022	24	MIX RAW	2 levels	23	23	111	495	133	57	12	100%	4.8	26.9%	11.5%	15.4%	2.4%	5.03	3.65	—
2023	25	MIX MLE	2 levels	25	16	79	382	74	52	7	64%	3.1	14.1%	13.0%	1.1%	2.7%	6.75	5.02	—
2023	25	MIX MLE	2 levels	25	16	79	382	74	52	7	64%	3.1	14.1%	13.0%	1.1%	2.7%	6.75	5.02	—
2023	25	MIX RAW	2 levels	25	16	79	382	74	52	7	64%	3.1	19.4%	13.6%	5.8%	1.8%	6.75	4.36	—
▸ 2026 season — projected remainder (no 2026 stats recorded)
2026	28	MLB	MIA	—	—	0	—	—	—	—	—	—	19.6%	11.3%	8.3%	3.0%	4.89	4.89	—
▸ Career projection (2027+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2027	29	MLB MLE	MIA	8	8	48	202	40	23	6	100%	6.0	19.8%	11.3%	8.4%	3.1%	4.91	4.97	-0.0
2028	30	MLB MLE	MIA	7	7	45	190	37	22	6	100%	6.4	19.7%	11.5%	8.2%	3.3%	5.00	5.10	-0.1
2027	29	MLB CTX	MIA	2	2	14	59	12	7	2	100%	7.0	19.8%	11.3%	8.4%	3.1%	4.91	4.97	-0.0
2028	30	MLB CTX	MIA	4	4	23	97	19	11	3	100%	5.8	19.7%	11.5%	8.2%	3.3%	5.00	5.10	-0.1
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		6	6	37	157	31	18	5	100%	6.2	19.7%	11.4%	8.3%	3.3%	4.97	4.67	+0.1
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		33	33	200	844	167	97	27	100%	6.0	19.7%	11.4%	8.3%	3.3%	4.97	4.67	+0.5
Career	—	MLE		70	58	284	1297	231	161	41	83%	4.1	17.8%	12.4%	5.4%	3.2%	5.55	4.92	-0.1
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		49	41	200	913	162	113	29	83%	4.1	17.8%	12.4%	5.4%	3.2%	5.55	4.92	-0.3

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Zach King (OGILVIE)	—	—	4.89	19.6%	11.3%	3.0%	—	5.03	19.7%	8.3%	93	+0.14	—	—	—
Matt Tracy L 2017 · 4.82 FIP	28	SP-	4.82	16.1%	9.4%	3.5%	.325	3.24	13.9%	3.5%	49	-1.58	3.24	298	79
Miguel Cienfuegos L 2023 · 5.12 FIP	26	SP	5.12	13.6%	10.5%	3.4%	.257	4.54	14.3%	5.8%	242	-0.58	2.95	313	78
Marlon Arias L 2015 · 4.32 FIP	30	SP	4.32	16.8%	12.2%	2.0%	.330	3.73	17.2%	9.5%	22	-0.59	3.73	154	77
Jack Snodgrass L 2016 · 5.01 FIP	28	SP-	5.01	15.7%	10.1%	3.6%	.305	—	—	—	—	—	4.66	118	76
Marco Tovar L 2017 · 5.04 FIP	28	SP-	5.04	16.1%	11.3%	3.4%	.317	4.78	12.6%	7.0%	82	-0.26	3.78	327	73
Darin Gorski L 2016 · 4.50 FIP	28	SP	4.50	15.0%	9.8%	2.6%	.299	—	—	—	—	—	4.50	206	72
Brad Mills L 2014 · 5.61 FIP	29	SP-	5.61	18.8%	10.9%	5.0%	.364	5.00	14.5%	4.0%	182	-0.61	4.22	243	71
Chipper Smith L 2015 · 3.81 FIP	25	SP-	3.81	15.6%	9.5%	1.5%	.321	—	—	—	—	—	3.81	109	71
Aaron Rozek L 2023 · 4.87 FIP	27	SP-	4.87	17.4%	8.8%	3.9%	.311	4.34	16.7%	9.5%	356	-0.53	3.68	579	70
Orlando Lara L 2015 · 4.29 FIP	30	SP	4.29	15.2%	10.3%	2.1%	.348	4.08	14.2%	7.2%	230	-0.21	3.85	426	70
Roy Merritt L 2016 · 3.93 FIP	30	SP-	3.93	13.3%	5.9%	2.2%	.293	3.95	16.2%	10.4%	116	+0.02	3.93	129	69
Matt Lujan L 2017 · 4.69 FIP	28	SP-	4.69	14.3%	6.4%	3.6%	.348	—	—	—	—	—	4.06	227	69
Eric DuBose L 2004 · 5.50 FIP	28	SP	5.50	14.2%	13.0%	3.5%	.274	5.45	12.6%	-1.5%	29	-0.05	3.92	178	68
Taylor Varnell L 2021 · 4.48 FIP	26	SP	4.48	20.1%	10.3%	3.2%	.278	—	—	—	—	—	2.89	248	68
Daniel Camarena L 2021 · 4.47 FIP	28	SP	4.47	14.9%	8.3%	2.9%	.273	5.73	13.7%	5.9%	121	+1.26	3.76	674	68
Misael Siverio L 2017 · 4.32 FIP	28	SP	4.32	17.3%	9.1%	2.8%	.299	—	—	—	—	—	3.89	185	68
Edgar Osuna L 2017 · 5.05 FIP	29	SP	5.05	10.6%	8.2%	3.3%	.345	5.09	10.0%	2.8%	83	+0.04	5.05	175	68
Alejandro Astorga L 2015 · 4.35 FIP	28	SP	4.35	11.5%	10.2%	1.7%	.283	3.87	14.7%	6.1%	220	-0.48	3.72	311	68
Alejandro Soto L 2015 · 4.41 FIP	29	SP	4.41	12.8%	7.0%	2.7%	.367	4.07	14.6%	9.1%	128	-0.34	3.96	280	67
Amilcar Gaxiola L 2019 · 4.61 FIP	28	SP-	4.61	11.8%	10.0%	2.3%	.316	—	—	—	—	—	4.58	321	67

Career Comps

Completed MLB careers (no pro action in 2+ yrs) whose totals — actual + projected — most resemble this player's. Pool: 714 reliever careers (1990-2024).

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	0.7	48	19.7%	11.4%	1.22	4.93
Valerio De Los Santos ('08)	1.3	51	18.7%	11.5%	1.30	4.57
Josias Manzanillo ('04)	1.7	57	20.0%	10.2%	1.21	4.71
Pedro Borbón ('03)	1.4	45	18.5%	11.1%	1.10	4.68
Will Cunnane ('04)	1.4	46	18.9%	10.4%	1.25	5.26
Mike Matthews ('05)	1.2	61	16.3%	11.3%	1.07	4.54
Tyler Yates ('09)	1.2	62	19.7%	12.0%	0.94	5.12