Jake Walters prospect projection, MLE, ETA

Jake Walters P Jacksonville Jumbo Shrimp

Age 30 RHP 6'0" / 190 lbs AAA peak 0.2 · 2026

2026 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONpark-neutral Marcel · 48 proj IP

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 130122vR 113

ERA5.08

FIP5.08

K%18.9%

BB%11.7%

K-BB%7.2%

ROS IP49

Value2026 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 48 IP

Grades · Contract

Scouting Grades

K†4545

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2026 so far)
2019	23	A MLE	Clinton LumberKings	19	17	92	370	87	29	4	89%	4.8	17.4%	9.2%	8.2%	1.3%	2.35	3.51	—
2019	23	A RAW	Clinton LumberKings	19	17	92	370	87	29	4	89%	4.8	23.5%	7.8%	15.7%	1.1%	2.35	2.72	—
2021	25	MIX MLE	2 levels	17	5	58	248	61	29	2	29%	3.4	19.2%	11.7%	7.5%	1.1%	3.57	3.55	—
2021	25	MIX RAW	2 levels	17	5	58	248	61	29	2	29%	3.4	24.6%	11.7%	12.9%	0.8%	3.57	2.94	—
2022	26	MIX MLE	3 levels	15	12	53	227	52	17	3	80%	3.5	17.0%	9.4%	7.5%	2.1%	3.23	4.03	—
2022	26	MIX RAW	3 levels	15	12	53	227	52	17	3	80%	3.5	22.9%	7.5%	15.4%	1.3%	3.23	2.84	—
2023	27	MIX MLE	2 levels	23	9	72	336	60	50	13	39%	3.1	15.2%	13.9%	1.4%	4.2%	6.38	5.85	—
2023	27	MIX MLE	2 levels	23	9	72	336	60	50	13	39%	3.1	15.2%	13.9%	1.4%	4.2%	6.38	5.85	—
2023	27	MIX RAW	2 levels	23	9	72	336	60	50	13	39%	3.1	17.9%	14.9%	3.0%	3.9%	6.38	5.86	—
▸ 2026 season — projected remainder (no 2026 stats recorded)
2026	30	MLB	MIA	—	—	0	—	—	—	—	—	—	18.9%	11.7%	7.2%	3.1%	5.08	5.08	—
▸ Career projection (2027+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2027	31	MLB MLE	MIA	7	7	46	193	36	23	6	100%	6.5	18.9%	11.8%	7.1%	3.3%	5.12	5.20	-0.2
2028	32	MLB MLE	MIA	7	7	42	178	34	21	6	100%	6.0	18.8%	12.0%	6.8%	3.5%	5.24	5.36	-0.2
2027	31	MLB CTX	MIA	3	3	17	72	14	8	2	100%	5.7	18.9%	11.8%	7.1%	3.3%	5.12	5.20	-0.1
2028	32	MLB CTX	MIA	4	4	23	97	18	12	3	100%	5.8	18.8%	12.0%	6.8%	3.5%	5.24	5.36	-0.1
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		6	6	40	169	32	20	6	100%	6.7	18.9%	11.9%	6.9%	3.5%	5.19	4.91	-0.0
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		31	31	200	844	160	100	30	100%	6.4	18.9%	11.9%	6.9%	3.5%	5.19	4.91	-0.0
Career	—	MLE		74	43	275	1181	202	131	26	58%	3.7	17.1%	11.1%	6.0%	2.2%	3.83	4.29	-0.4
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		54	31	200	859	147	96	19	58%	3.7	17.1%	11.1%	6.0%	2.2%	3.83	4.29	-0.9

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Jake Walters (OGILVIE)	—	—	5.08	18.9%	11.7%	3.1%	—	5.28	18.9%	7.0%	88	+0.20	—	—	—
Elian Leyva R 2019 · 4.30 FIP	30	SP-	4.30	17.0%	8.5%	2.9%	.323	—	—	—	—	—	3.10	158	81
Jared Fernandez R 2002 · 4.23 FIP	30	SP-	4.23	15.6%	10.0%	2.2%	.323	3.57	11.8%	5.6%	38	-0.66	3.57	101	74
Fabio Castillo R 2017 · 3.98 FIP	28	SP-	3.98	20.9%	8.8%	2.8%	.291	—	—	—	—	—	3.13	195	73
Edgar Alberto Garcia R 2017 · 4.01 FIP	29	SP-	4.01	17.3%	10.9%	1.8%	.305	—	—	—	—	—	4.01	272	71
Derek Eitel R 2017 · 4.72 FIP	29	SP-	4.72	17.2%	16.0%	1.9%	.273	—	—	—	—	—	3.96	138	71
Zack Segovia R 2015 · 4.78 FIP	32	SP	4.78	15.0%	8.3%	3.4%	.314	3.33	20.2%	14.3%	39	-1.45	3.33	144	70
Travis Smith R 2002 · 5.28 FIP	29	SP	5.28	13.1%	8.2%	4.1%	.324	5.71	15.0%	9.0%	51	+0.43	3.67	105	70
Alfonso Sanchez R 2017 · 4.51 FIP	29	SW	4.51	12.5%	9.8%	2.2%	.346	7.58	8.6%	1.4%	39	+3.07	4.51	224	69
Juan Omar Espinoza R 2015 · 4.81 FIP	31	SP-	4.81	8.9%	6.6%	3.0%	.346	4.84	8.4%	-0.8%	52	+0.03	4.81	104	69
Scott McGregor R 2015 · 4.37 FIP	28	SP-	4.37	11.8%	7.6%	2.4%	.293	—	—	—	—	—	4.37	107	68
David Hale R 2018 · 4.22 FIP	30	SP-	4.22	15.4%	7.5%	2.7%	.299	3.65	17.1%	11.3%	114	-0.57	3.30	581	68
Josh Zeid R 2017 · 5.35 FIP	30	SW	5.35	18.3%	10.8%	4.4%	.334	—	—	—	—	—	4.00	313	68
Jose A. Flores R 2018 · 4.77 FIP	29	SP-	4.77	13.7%	10.3%	2.8%	.350	—	—	—	—	—	2.94	237	67
Reinier Roibal R 2019 · 4.91 FIP	30	SP	4.91	17.5%	11.8%	3.3%	.426	—	—	—	—	—	3.11	133	67
Mike Burns R 2009 · 4.90 FIP	31	SP-	4.90	17.2%	6.6%	4.4%	.307	—	—	—	—	—	3.10	104	66
Michael Mariot R 2019 · 5.01 FIP	30	SP	5.01	19.8%	11.1%	4.0%	.333	5.03	15.8%	7.4%	182	+0.02	2.40	701	66
Aaron Wilkerson R 2019 · 4.67 FIP	30	SP-	4.67	20.9%	9.8%	3.8%	.291	3.33	24.6%	19.0%	112	-1.34	2.75	902	66
Miguel Ruiz R 2015 · 5.77 FIP	29	SP-	5.77	8.8%	8.0%	4.4%	.346	5.60	10.6%	-0.4%	53	-0.17	5.60	117	65
Luke Irvine R 2016 · 4.31 FIP	27	SP-	4.31	13.4%	9.8%	2.0%	.302	—	—	—	—	—	4.31	104	65
Jon Leicester R 2007 · 4.44 FIP	28	SP-	4.44	11.0%	9.0%	2.1%	.292	—	—	—	—	—	3.76	113	65

Career Comps

Completed MLB careers (no pro action in 2+ yrs) whose totals — actual + projected — most resemble this player's. Pool: 714 reliever careers (1990-2024).

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	0.7	46	18.9%	11.8%	1.28	5.14
Valerio De Los Santos ('08)	1.3	51	18.7%	11.5%	1.30	4.57
Will Cunnane ('04)	1.4	46	18.9%	10.4%	1.25	5.26
Matt Anderson ('05)	1.3	51	19.3%	13.5%	1.05	5.19
Pedro Borbón ('03)	1.4	45	18.5%	11.1%	1.10	4.68
Scott Proctor ('11)	1.7	57	19.0%	10.9%	1.52	4.78
Josias Manzanillo ('04)	1.7	57	20.0%	10.2%	1.21	4.71