Trevor Rogers

P Baltimore Orioles

Age 29 LHP 6'5" / 230 lbs MLB Svc 5.0 · Ctrl thru 2027 peak 2.9 · 2027

Overview

MLBSP40-MANArb-3FA 2028

Year	Age	Lvl / Team	G	GS	IP	ERA	FIP	K%	BB%	WAR	MLE rates
2024	26	MIX2 levels	30	30	153	5.06	4.12	18.6%	9.2%	1.4	K 18.0% · BB 9.1% · FIP 4.13
2025	27	MIX3 levels	26	26	142	2.66	2.96	23.2%	6.7%	3.5	K 22.5% · BB 6.5% · FIP 2.93
2026	28	MLBBAL	30	30	170	4.03	3.39	22.5%	5.6%	3.1
2027PROJ	29	MLBBAL	25	25	148	3.80	3.82	21.7%	6.3%	1.9
2028PROJ	30	MLBBAL	23	23	140	4.00	4.09	21.0%	6.6%	1.5
2029PROJ	31	MLBBAL	22	22	130	4.20	4.33	20.2%	6.9%	1.0

Last 3 seasons WAR 8.0 · Next 3 projected WAR 4.4Projected rows: MLB playing time only, park and league context applied.

ContractESTIMATED

Control thru2027Service5.273First FA2028

2027Arb-3$14M

Skills · percentileStatcast 2026

xwOBA vs70

K%52

Whiff%44

FB Velo40

CompsJ.A. Happ (age 29) · Wei-Yin Chen (age 29) · Mark Redman (age 29)

2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONrates below = full-season projection

showingPROJ

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 8593vR 101

ERA3.80

FIP3.82

K%21.7%

BB%6.3%

K-BB%15.4%

Proj IP148

Value2027 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 148 IP

Grades · Statcast · Arsenal · Contract

Scouting Grades

OFP—55

STUF5555

CTRL5560

CMD5555

K†5050

Statcast Percentiles

FB Velo

p4093.8

Whiff%

p4424.4%

p5222.5%

xwOBA vs

p700.293

FB+0.6 (57%)

SI (10%)

CT-0.5 (8%)

CH-0.7 (20%)

SL-1.0 (14%)

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status Arb-3

MLB Debut 2020

Service 5.273 yrs.days

Team Control Through 2027

First FA Year 2028

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2027	Arb-3	$14M	+1.9	$15M	+$0.8M
Totals		$14M		$15M	+$0.8M

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2027 so far)
2018	20	A MLE	Greensboro Grasshoppers	17	17	73	327	85	27	4	100%	4.3	19.2%	9.7%	9.5%	1.4%	5.82	3.49	—
2018	20	A RAW	Greensboro Grasshoppers	17	17	73	327	85	27	4	100%	4.3	26.0%	8.3%	17.7%	1.2%	5.82	2.59	—
2019	21	MIX MLE	2 levels	23	23	136	567	150	33	10	100%	5.9	20.6%	6.6%	14.0%	2.6%	2.90	3.64	—
2019	21	MIX RAW	2 levels	23	23	136	567	150	33	10	100%	5.9	26.5%	5.8%	20.6%	1.8%	2.90	2.58	—
2020	22	MLB MLE	Miami Marlins	7	7	28	130	39	13	5	100%	4.0	30.0%	10.0%	20.0%	4.0%	6.11	4.06	+0.3
2020	22	MLB RAW	Miami Marlins	7	7	28	130	39	13	5	100%	4.0	30.0%	10.0%	20.0%	3.8%	6.11	4.03	+0.3
2021	23	MIX MLE	2 levels	27	27	141	582	169	47	6	100%	5.2	28.5%	8.0%	20.5%	1.1%	2.48	2.33	+4.7
2021	23	MIX RAW	2 levels	27	27	141	582	169	47	6	100%	5.2	29.0%	8.1%	21.0%	1.0%	2.48	2.26	+4.8
2022	24	MIX MLE	3 levels	27	27	123	546	131	47	18	100%	4.6	22.2%	9.4%	12.8%	3.3%	5.56	4.24	+1.0
2022	24	MIX RAW	3 levels	27	27	123	546	131	47	18	100%	4.6	24.0%	8.6%	15.4%	3.3%	5.56	4.02	+1.3
2023	25	MIX MLE	3 levels	6	6	27	110	31	8	2	100%	4.5	24.1%	7.6%	16.5%	2.7%	2.67	3.49	+0.5
2023	25	MIX RAW	3 levels	6	6	27	110	31	8	2	100%	4.5	28.2%	7.3%	20.9%	1.8%	2.67	2.66	+0.8
2024	26	MIX MLE	2 levels	30	30	153	682	127	63	17	100%	5.1	18.0%	9.1%	8.9%	2.6%	5.06	4.13	+1.4
2024	26	MIX MLE	2 levels	30	30	153	682	127	63	17	100%	5.1	18.0%	9.1%	8.9%	2.6%	5.06	4.13	+1.4
2024	26	MIX RAW	2 levels	30	30	153	682	127	63	17	100%	5.1	18.6%	9.2%	9.4%	2.5%	5.06	4.12	+1.4
2025	27	MIX MLE	3 levels	26	26	142	569	132	38	10	100%	5.5	22.5%	6.5%	16.0%	1.7%	2.66	2.93	+3.5
2025	27	MIX MLE	3 levels	26	26	142	569	132	38	10	100%	5.5	22.5%	6.5%	16.0%	1.7%	2.66	2.93	+3.5
2025	27	MIX RAW	3 levels	26	26	142	569	132	38	10	100%	5.5	23.2%	6.7%	16.5%	1.8%	2.66	2.96	+3.5
2026	28	MLB MLE	Baltimore Orioles	30	30	170	699	157	39	19	100%	5.7	22.5%	5.6%	16.9%	2.6%	4.03	3.34	+3.3
2026	28	MLB MLE	Baltimore Orioles	30	30	170	699	157	39	19	100%	5.7	22.5%	5.6%	16.9%	2.6%	4.03	3.34	+3.3
2026	28	MLB RAW	Baltimore Orioles	30	30	170	699	157	39	19	100%	5.7	22.5%	5.6%	16.9%	2.7%	4.03	3.39	+3.1
▸ Career totals (raw MLB only — as recorded)
MLB Career	—			132	132	690	2920	678	230	67	100%	5.2	23.2%	7.9%	15.3%	2.3%	3.88	3.40	+12.7
▸ 2027 season — projected remainder (no 2027 stats recorded)
2027	29	MLB	BAL	25	25	148	625	135	39	16	100%	5.9	21.7%	6.3%	15.4%	2.5%	3.80	3.82	+1.9
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2028	30	MLB MLE	BAL	23	23	140	589	124	39	16	100%	6.1	21.0%	6.6%	14.4%	2.7%	3.93	4.02	+1.5
2029	31	MLB MLE	BAL	22	22	130	549	111	38	16	100%	5.9	20.2%	6.9%	13.3%	2.9%	4.13	4.26	+1.0
2030	32	MLB MLE	BAL	20	20	120	508	99	37	16	100%	6.0	19.4%	7.3%	12.1%	3.2%	4.36	4.51	+0.5
2031	33	MLB MLE	BAL	18	18	110	466	87	36	16	100%	6.1	18.6%	7.8%	10.8%	3.5%	4.62	4.79	+0.1
2032	34	MLB MLE	BAL	17	17	100	424	75	35	16	100%	5.9	17.7%	8.3%	9.4%	3.8%	4.90	5.09	-0.2
2028	30	MLB CTX	BAL	23	23	140	591	124	39	17	100%	6.1	21.0%	6.6%	14.4%	2.8%	4.00	4.09	+1.5
2029	31	MLB CTX	BAL	22	22	130	549	111	38	17	100%	5.9	20.2%	6.9%	13.3%	3.1%	4.20	4.33	+1.0
2030	32	MLB CTX	BAL	20	20	120	507	98	37	17	100%	6.0	19.4%	7.3%	12.1%	3.3%	4.44	4.59	+0.5
2031	33	MLB CTX	BAL	18	18	110	464	86	36	17	100%	6.1	18.6%	7.8%	10.8%	3.6%	4.71	4.88	+0.1
2032	34	MLB CTX	BAL	17	17	100	422	75	35	17	100%	5.9	17.7%	8.3%	9.4%	3.9%	4.99	5.18	-0.2
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		232	232	1290	5457	1173	415	151	100%	5.6	21.5%	7.6%	13.9%	2.8%	4.13	3.77	+17.7
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		36	36	200	846	182	64	23	100%	5.6	21.5%	7.6%	13.9%	2.8%	4.13	3.77	+2.7
Career	—	MLE		193	193	993	4212	941	327	97	100%	5.1	22.3%	7.8%	14.6%	2.3%	3.96	3.47	+15.3
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		39	39	200	848	189	66	20	100%	5.1	22.3%	7.8%	14.6%	2.3%	3.96	3.47	+2.4

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Trevor Rogers (OGILVIE)	—	—	3.82	21.7%	6.3%	2.5%	—	4.25	20.3%	13.3%	390	+0.43	—	—	—
J.A. Happ L 2012 · 3.94 FIP	29	SP	3.94	23.0%	8.8%	3.0%	.313	3.87	20.1%	12.5%	423	-0.07	3.37	1,890	71
Wei-Yin Chen L 2014 · 3.63 FIP	29	SP	3.63	17.6%	4.3%	2.7%	.293	4.08	19.2%	14.1%	348	+0.45	3.63	1,065	69
Mark Redman L 2003 · 3.52 FIP	29	SP	3.52	18.8%	7.2%	2.0%	.270	4.58	12.0%	4.4%	536	+1.06	3.52	1,239	69
Wandy Rodriguez L 2008 · 3.41 FIP	29	SP	3.41	22.3%	7.0%	2.4%	.304	3.61	21.7%	14.2%	592	+0.20	3.37	1,572	67
Chris Narveson L 2011 · 4.01 FIP	29	SP	4.01	18.0%	9.2%	2.3%	.291	—	—	—	—	—	4.00	625	67
Doug Davis L 2005 · 3.93 FIP	29	SP	3.93	22.0%	9.3%	2.8%	.272	4.16	17.2%	6.9%	542	+0.23	3.47	1,713	64
Mike Sirotka L 2000 · 4.35 FIP	29	SP	4.35	15.4%	8.2%	2.8%	.294	—	—	—	—	—	3.62	710	63
Scott Diamond L 2015 · 3.77 FIP	29	SP	3.77	12.6%	4.3%	2.2%	.330	3.46	12.7%	7.9%	166	-0.31	3.46	659	62
Joe Saunders L 2010 · 4.46 FIP	29	SP	4.46	13.0%	7.2%	2.8%	.305	4.43	13.4%	7.0%	570	-0.03	3.86	1,378	58
Wade Miley L 2016 · 4.07 FIP	29	SP	4.07	19.3%	6.8%	3.2%	.323	4.25	18.8%	9.1%	431	+0.18	3.12	1,805	58
Nate Robertson L 2007 · 4.35 FIP	29	SP	4.35	15.2%	7.8%	2.8%	.306	4.51	14.2%	5.9%	320	+0.16	4.13	1,144	56
Dallas Keuchel L 2017 · 3.76 FIP	29	SP	3.76	21.4%	8.0%	2.6%	.254	3.72	17.7%	10.7%	381	-0.04	2.86	1,841	55
Kaz Ishii L 2003 · 4.51 FIP	29	SP	4.51	21.3%	14.8%	2.4%	.280	5.18	13.2%	0.9%	263	+0.67	4.51	564	55
James Paxton L 2018 · 3.21 FIP	29	SP	3.21	32.2%	6.5%	3.7%	.298	3.63	29.3%	20.7%	171	+0.42	2.46	1,022	53
Erik Bedard L 2008 · 4.12 FIP	29	SP	4.12	20.7%	10.7%	2.6%	.266	3.61	24.2%	14.9%	212	-0.51	2.96	1,317	52
Cliff Lee L 2008 · 2.70 FIP	29	SP	2.70	19.1%	3.7%	1.4%	.299	2.68	22.2%	18.5%	677	-0.02	2.49	2,146	52
C.J. Wilson L 2010 · 3.42 FIP	29	SP	3.42	20.0%	10.9%	1.1%	.262	3.46	21.1%	12.0%	638	+0.04	2.55	1,430	51
Christian Friedrich L 2016 · 3.96 FIP	29	SP	3.96	17.6%	8.8%	2.2%	.292	—	—	—	—	—	3.39	297	49
Ryan Bollinger L 2018 · 3.56 FIP	27	SP	3.56	17.1%	7.5%	1.7%	.290	—	—	—	—	—	3.56	112	49
Paul Oseguera L 2015 · 3.83 FIP	31	SP	3.83	17.6%	8.5%	2.1%	.297	5.62	5.6%	-6.9%	28	+1.79	3.83	162	49

Career Comps

Completed MLB careers (no pro action in 2+ yrs) whose totals — actual + projected — most resemble this player's. Pool: 1,853 starter careers (497 from 1990-2025 + 1,356 historical, 1901-2023), also matched on career-to-date at the same age. * Historical (Lahman) careers: rates era-adjusted to 2001-24 league levels; WAR is an OGILVIE proxy.

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	7.2	120	21.5%	7.5%	1.04	4.07
Aníbal Sánchez ('22)	10.1	126	20.6%	8.0%	1.06	4.06
Alex Cobb ('24)	6.6	121	19.9%	6.9%	0.95	3.84
Danny Duffy ('21)	5.9	107	21.1%	8.7%	1.11	3.95
John Montefusco ('74-'86, 20 WAR*)	8.3	150	22.5%*	7.3%*	1.20*	4.16*
Bob Ojeda ('80-'94, 22 WAR*)	9.4	135	19.1%*	8.5%*	0.97*	4.08*
Denny Galehouse ('34-'49, 27 WAR*)	10.0	167	20.7%*	7.5%*	0.94*	4.07*