Dylan Coleman
P
Scranton/Wilkes-Barre RailRiders
Age 29
RHP
6'5" / 235 lbs
AAA
2026 ROS PROJECTION21 act + 56 ip · rates below = ROS only
wRC+ AGAINSTvL 144135vR 126
ERA5.18
FIP5.59
K%26.4%
BB%21.9%
K-BB%4.5%
ROS IP56
Value2026 · WAR
Runs saved vs league avg · 77 IP
Grades · Statcast · Arsenal · Contract
Statcast Percentiles
FB Velo
p6095.2
Whiff%
p8931.4%
K%
p4821.9%
xwOBA vs
p100.359
CT+0.6 (31%)
SL (6%)
FB (62%)
Contract
No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.
Career Stats + Projections
Viewactual = stats as recorded (seasons combined) + projected real-world MLB lines · MLE = level/park-neutral translations
Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed
Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | G | GS | IP | BF | K | BB | HR | GS% | IP/G | K% | BB% | K-BB% | HR% | ERA | FIP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2018 | 21 | A | Fort Wayne TinCaps | 13 | 0 | 17 | 73 | 22 | 7 | 0 | 0% | 1.3 | 22.3% | 11.3% | 11.0% | 0.0% | 3.24 | 2.65 | — |
| 2018 | 21 | A | Fort Wayne TinCaps | 13 | 0 | 17 | 73 | 22 | 7 | 0 | 0% | 1.3 | 30.1% | 9.6% | 20.5% | 0.0% | 3.24 | 1.72 | — |
| 2019 | 22 | MIX | 3 levels | 27 | 2 | 34 | 151 | 39 | 17 | 2 | 7% | 1.3 | 19.5% | 12.5% | 7.1% | 2.1% | 3.18 | 4.16 | — |
| 2019 | 22 | MIX | 3 levels | 27 | 2 | 34 | 151 | 39 | 17 | 2 | 7% | 1.3 | 25.8% | 11.3% | 14.6% | 1.3% | 3.18 | 3.07 | — |
| 2021 | 24 | MIX | 3 levels | 50 | 0 | 64 | 255 | 100 | 22 | 4 | 0% | 1.3 | 34.5% | 9.7% | 24.8% | 2.0% | 3.09 | 2.54 | +1.6 |
| 2021 | 24 | MIX | 3 levels | 50 | 0 | 64 | 255 | 100 | 22 | 4 | 0% | 1.3 | 39.2% | 8.6% | 30.6% | 1.6% | 3.09 | 1.82 | +2.1 |
| 2022 | 25 | MIX | 2 levels | 69 | 0 | 69 | 293 | 72 | 37 | 5 | 0% | 1.0 | 24.6% | 12.5% | 12.1% | 1.9% | 2.74 | 3.62 | +0.9 |
| 2022 | 25 | MIX | 2 levels | 69 | 0 | 69 | 293 | 72 | 37 | 5 | 0% | 1.0 | 24.6% | 12.6% | 11.9% | 1.7% | 2.74 | 3.56 | +1.0 |
| 2023 | 26 | MIX | 2 levels | 55 | 1 | 49 | 243 | 69 | 49 | 6 | 2% | 0.9 | 26.0% | 20.8% | 5.2% | 2.9% | 6.24 | 5.11 | -0.3 |
| 2023 | 26 | MIX | 2 levels | 55 | 1 | 49 | 243 | 69 | 49 | 6 | 2% | 0.9 | 28.4% | 20.2% | 8.2% | 2.5% | 6.24 | 4.88 | -0.2 |
| 2024 | 27 | MIX | 2 levels | 37 | 0 | 37 | 180 | 43 | 43 | 2 | 0% | 1.0 | 21.0% | 25.1% | -4.1% | 1.5% | 6.32 | 5.35 | -0.3 |
| 2024 | 27 | MIX | 2 levels | 37 | 0 | 37 | 180 | 43 | 43 | 2 | 0% | 1.0 | 23.9% | 23.9% | 0.0% | 1.1% | 6.32 | 4.96 | -0.2 |
| 2025 | 28 | MIX | 2 levels | 11 | 0 | 15 | 69 | 14 | 14 | 0 | 0% | 1.3 | 20.3% | 20.3% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 4.91 | 3.96 | — |
| 2025 | 28 | MIX | 2 levels | 11 | 0 | 15 | 69 | 14 | 14 | 0 | 0% | 1.3 | 20.3% | 20.3% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 4.91 | 4.05 | — |
| ▸ 2026 Season | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2026 | 29 | AAA | Scranton/Wilkes-Barre RailRiders | 19 | 0 | 21 | 94 | 26 | 20 | 2 | 0% | 1.1 | 24.3% | 22.3% | 2.0% | 2.3% | 2.57 | 5.16 | -0.1 |
| ROS | 29 | MLB | NYY | 53 | 0 | 56 | 235 | 62 | 51 | 7 | 0% | 1.0 | 26.4% | 21.9% | 4.5% | 2.9% | 5.18 | 5.59 | -0.7 |
| ROS | 29 | MLB | NYY | 6 | 0 | 6 | 25 | 7 | 6 | 1 | 0% | 1.0 | 26.4% | 21.9% | 4.5% | 2.9% | 5.18 | 5.59 | -0.1 |
| 2026 TOT | 29 | MLB | NYY | — | — | 77 | 329 | 88 | 71 | 9 | — | — | 26.7% | 21.7% | 5.0% | 2.6% | 4.46 | 5.47 | -0.5 |
| 2026 FULL | 29 | MLB | NYY | — | — | 6 | 23 | 6 | 5 | 1 | — | — | 26.4% | 21.9% | 4.5% | 2.9% | 5.18 | 5.21 | -0.0 |
| ▸ 2027+ Projections WITH CONTEXT · MLB TIME ONLY ⓘ | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 30 | MLB | NYY | 50 | 0 | 52 | 221 | 56 | 46 | 7 | 0% | 1.0 | 25.4% | 20.9% | 4.5% | 3.1% | 5.42 | 5.67 | -0.7 |
| 2028 | 31 | MLB | NYY | 46 | 0 | 49 | 206 | 50 | 42 | 7 | 0% | 1.1 | 24.5% | 20.4% | 4.1% | 3.3% | 5.60 | 5.80 | -0.7 |
| 2027 | 30 | MLB | NYY | 18 | 0 | 19 | 80 | 20 | 17 | 2 | 0% | 1.1 | 25.4% | 20.9% | 4.5% | 3.1% | 5.42 | 5.67 | -0.2 |
| 2028 | 31 | MLB | NYY | 26 | 0 | 27 | 114 | 28 | 23 | 4 | 0% | 1.0 | 24.5% | 20.4% | 4.1% | 3.3% | 5.60 | 5.80 | -0.4 |
| ▸ Career (MLB actual + context projections) | |||||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | 146 | 1 | 145 | 632 | 155 | 101 | 15 | 1% | 1.0 | 24.4% | 16.0% | 8.4% | 2.4% | 4.43 | 4.36 | +1.8 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 201 | 1 | 200 | 870 | 213 | 139 | 21 | 1% | 1.0 | 24.4% | 16.0% | 8.4% | 2.4% | 4.43 | 4.36 | +2.4 | ||
| Career | — | 281 | 3 | 305 | 1358 | 344 | 219 | 26 | 1% | 1.1 | 25.3% | 16.1% | 9.2% | 1.9% | 3.98 | 4.04 | +4.8 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 184 | 2 | 200 | 890 | 225 | 143 | 17 | 1% | 1.1 | 25.3% | 16.1% | 9.2% | 1.9% | 3.98 | 4.04 | +3.2 | ||
Career Path Comps
What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection
| Profile at Match Age | Next 3 Yrs | Career | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Comp | Age | Role | FIP | K% | BB% | HR/BF | BABIP | FIP | K% | K-BB% | IP | ΔFIP | Low FIP | IP | Match |
| Dylan Coleman (OGILVIE) | — | — | 5.59 | 26.4% | 21.9% | 2.9% | — | 5.73 | 24.9% | 4.3% | 101 | +0.14 | — | — | — |
| Dan Winkler R 2026 · 4.97 FIP | 29 | SU | 4.97 | 20.6% | 15.2% | 3.1% | .237 | 4.27 | 23.0% | 8.4% | 104 | -0.70 | 2.40 | 231 | 70 |
| Parker Markel R 2025 · 4.81 FIP | 28 | SU | 4.81 | 29.7% | 16.5% | 3.9% | .250 | 4.08 | 28.9% | 11.6% | 97 | -0.73 | 3.16 | 266 | 70 |
| Brandon Maurer R 2025 · 4.83 FIP | 28 | SU | 4.83 | 19.7% | 13.0% | 3.2% | .339 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.21 | 234 | 69 |
| Zack Jones R 2024 · 5.03 FIP | 27 | SU | 5.03 | 27.7% | 24.1% | 2.2% | .167 | — | — | — | — | — | 2.50 | 109 | 69 |
| Cole McDonald R 2024 · 5.38 FIP | 27 | SU | 5.38 | 21.1% | 13.8% | 4.2% | .281 | — | — | — | — | — | 2.72 | 153 | 69 |
| Michael Darrell-Hicks R 2025 · 4.83 FIP | 28 | SU | 4.83 | 22.7% | 14.1% | 3.4% | .268 | — | — | — | — | — | 1.87 | 232 | 68 |
| Wirfin Obispo R 2027 · 4.87 FIP | 30 | SU | 4.87 | 18.6% | 12.2% | 3.3% | .292 | 1.30 | 28.6% | 24.5% | 126 | -3.57 | 1.30 | 218 | 68 |
| Rico Garcia R 2026 · 5.45 FIP | 29 | SU | 5.45 | 22.9% | 14.8% | 4.4% | .284 | 4.07 | 27.6% | 17.4% | 168 | -1.38 | 3.21 | 566 | 67 |
| Kaleb Bowman R 2026 · 5.61 FIP | 29 | SU | 5.61 | 17.8% | 17.5% | 3.3% | .327 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.74 | 185 | 67 |
| Kevin Lenik R 2024 · 4.93 FIP | 27 | SU | 4.93 | 21.7% | 14.9% | 3.2% | .205 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.04 | 107 | 67 |
| Jordan Jankowski R 2026 · 4.83 FIP | 29 | SU | 4.83 | 21.8% | 16.9% | 2.6% | .396 | — | — | — | — | — | 2.57 | 196 | 66 |
| Arquimedes Caminero R 2026 · 4.48 FIP | 29 | SU | 4.48 | 17.9% | 11.4% | 2.6% | .314 | 4.46 | 18.6% | 7.5% | 38 | -0.02 | 3.46 | 173 | 65 |
| Pedro Garcia R 2025 · 6.16 FIP | 28 | SU | 6.16 | 27.5% | 18.2% | 5.6% | .260 | — | — | — | — | — | 2.80 | 155 | 65 |
| Brian Ellington R 2025 · 5.60 FIP | 28 | SU | 5.60 | 22.4% | 17.1% | 4.1% | .280 | — | — | — | — | — | 2.75 | 233 | 65 |
| Linder Castro R 2025 · 5.45 FIP | 28 | SU | 5.45 | 21.1% | 14.8% | 4.1% | .331 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.27 | 279 | 65 |
| Brandon Cunniff R 2025 · 4.96 FIP | 28 | SU | 4.96 | 20.1% | 11.6% | 3.8% | .275 | 7.33 | 13.9% | -1.9% | 30 | +2.37 | 3.78 | 180 | 65 |
| Wil Browning R 2025 · 4.58 FIP | 28 | SU | 4.58 | 17.9% | 13.1% | 2.4% | .359 | — | — | — | — | — | 2.12 | 162 | 65 |
| Brooks Wilson R 2025 · 4.92 FIP | 28 | SU | 4.92 | 26.1% | 15.9% | 3.7% | .260 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.16 | 194 | 64 |
| Cayne Ueckert R 2026 · 5.81 FIP | 29 | SU | 5.81 | 19.8% | 16.9% | 4.1% | .341 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.88 | 205 | 64 |
| Art Warren R 2026 · 4.56 FIP | 29 | SU | 4.56 | 24.2% | 12.7% | 3.5% | .316 | 6.90 | 18.6% | 1.7% | 27 | +2.34 | 1.38 | 322 | 64 |
Career Comps
Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 327 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).
| Player | Yrs | IP/yr | K% | BB% | HR/9 | ERA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION | 3 | 52 | 25.4% | 21.1% | 1.18 | 5.39 |
| Touki Toussaint ('24) | 7 | 40 | 23.1% | 14.1% | 1.25 | 5.39 |
| Amir Garrett ('23) | 6 | 51 | 25.8% | 13.4% | 1.50 | 5.10 |
| Kyle Barraclough ('19) | 5 | 50 | 29.0% | 14.1% | 0.86 | 3.53 |
| Daniel Bard ('23) | 4 | 50 | 25.1% | 13.5% | 0.81 | 3.82 |
| Jake Diekman ('24) | 9 | 51 | 28.6% | 13.8% | 0.91 | 4.07 |
| Tyler Chatwood ('21) | 5 | 104 | 19.2% | 13.3% | 0.94 | 4.48 |