Dylan Coleman
P
Chesapeake Baysox
+0.1
WAR
Age 29
RHP
6'5" / 235 lbs
AA
peak 0.1 · 2026
ERA6.50
FIP4.94
xFIP5.68
SIERA6.22
K%23.1%
BB%15.0%
K-BB%8.1%
IP33
trajectory · 10 yrs
0.1peak
2026
STUF6565
CTRL2525
CMD4040
K†6565
FB Velo
p6095.2
Whiff%
p8931.4%
K%
p4821.9%
xwOBA vs
p100.359
CT+0.6 (31%)
SL (6%)
FB (62%)
Career (MLE) + Projections
Park-neutral MLB-equivalent. MiLB translated via MLE factors. FIP-based WAR vs replacement FIP=5.3 (SP) / 4.95 (RP, <80 IP). FIP+ = runs above league-avg FIP · REP = replacement-level bonus.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | G | GS | IP | BF | K | BB | HR | K% | BB% | HR% | ERA | FIP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2018 | 21 | A | Fort Wayne TinCaps | 13 | 0 | 17 | 73 | 22 | 7 | 0 | 22.3% | 11.3% | 0.0% | 3.24 | 2.65 | +0.4 |
| 2019 | 22 | A+ | Lake Elsinore Storm | 27 | 2 | 34 | 151 | 39 | 17 | 2 | 19.5% | 12.5% | 2.1% | 3.18 | 4.16 | +0.3 |
| 2021 | 24 | MLB | Kansas City Royals | 50 | 0 | 64 | 255 | 100 | 22 | 4 | 34.5% | 9.7% | 2.0% | 3.09 | 2.52 | +1.8 |
| 2022 | 25 | MLB | Kansas City Royals | 69 | 0 | 69 | 293 | 72 | 37 | 5 | 24.6% | 12.5% | 1.8% | 2.74 | 3.56 | +1.1 |
| 2023 | 26 | MLB | Kansas City Royals | 55 | 1 | 49 | 243 | 69 | 49 | 6 | 26.0% | 20.8% | 2.6% | 6.24 | 4.97 | -0.0 |
| 2024 | 27 | MLB | Houston Astros | 37 | 0 | 37 | 180 | 43 | 43 | 2 | 21.0% | 25.1% | 1.4% | 6.32 | 5.27 | -0.1 |
| 2025 | 28 | AAA | Norfolk Tides | 11 | 0 | 15 | 69 | 14 | 14 | 0 | — | — | — | 4.91 | — | — |
| ▸ 2026 Season | ||||||||||||||||
| 2026 | 29 | MLB | BAL | 33 | — | 33 | 138 | 38 | 23 | 4 | 27.6% | 16.5% | 2.8% | 6.54 | 4.80 | +0.1 |
| ▸ 2027+ Projections — Marcel base + age-bracket aging | ||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 30 | MLB | BAL | 32 | — | 32 | 134 | 36 | 21 | 4 | 26.6% | 15.9% | 2.9% | 5.50 | 4.84 | +0.0 |
| 2028 | 31 | MLB | BAL | 31 | — | 31 | 129 | 33 | 20 | 4 | 25.8% | 15.5% | 3.0% | 5.13 | 4.91 | +0.0 |
| 2029 | 32 | MLB | BAL | 29 | — | 29 | 124 | 31 | 19 | 4 | 25.1% | 15.3% | 3.1% | 5.03 | 4.99 | -0.0 |
| ▸ Career (all levels · actual + projected) | ||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | 262 | 3 | 284 | 1264 | 321 | 198 | 22 | 25.4% | 15.7% | 1.8% | 4.08 | 3.91 | +4.5 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 184 | 2 | 200 | 889 | 226 | 139 | 15 | 25.4% | 15.7% | 1.8% | 4.08 | 3.91 | +3.2 | ||
Career Path Comps
What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection
| Profile at Match Age | Next 3 Yrs | Career | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Comp | Age | Role | FIP | K% | BB% | HR/BF | BABIP | FIP | K% | K-BB% | IP | ΔFIP | Low FIP | IP | Match |
| Dylan Coleman (OGILVIE) | — | — | 4.80 | 27.6% | 16.5% | 2.8% | — | 4.91 | 25.8% | 10.3% | 92 | +0.11 | — | — | — |
| J.J. Hoover R 2026 · 4.26 FIP | 29 | SU | 4.26 | 27.4% | 12.7% | 3.4% | .360 | 6.40 | 17.2% | 8.0% | 96 | +2.14 | 4.26 | 258 | 72 |
| Jake Cousins R 2026 · 4.50 FIP | 29 | SU | 4.50 | 27.9% | 13.3% | 3.8% | .379 | 3.49 | 34.2% | 21.9% | 38 | -1.01 | 1.11 | 160 | 71 |
| Wily Peralta R 2026 · 4.25 FIP | 29 | SW | 4.25 | 22.7% | 13.7% | 2.4% | .310 | 4.90 | 15.3% | 5.5% | 154 | +0.65 | 3.99 | 748 | 71 |
| Parker Markel R 2025 · 4.87 FIP | 28 | SW | 4.87 | 29.7% | 16.5% | 4.0% | .250 | 4.31 | 28.9% | 11.6% | 97 | -0.56 | 3.19 | 266 | 71 |
| Shintaro Fujinami R 2026 · 4.01 FIP | 29 | SW | 4.01 | 23.2% | 12.3% | 2.4% | .290 | 4.91 | 22.5% | -2.9% | 51 | +0.90 | 4.01 | 130 | 70 |
| Cody Hall R 2026 · 3.95 FIP | 29 | SU | 3.95 | 26.8% | 10.0% | 3.4% | .299 | 3.92 | 25.9% | 8.4% | 19 | -0.03 | 3.51 | 134 | 70 |
| Cole McDonald R 2024 · 5.16 FIP | 27 | SU | 5.16 | 21.1% | 13.8% | 3.8% | .281 | — | — | — | — | — | 2.84 | 153 | 69 |
| Coleman Huntley III R 2026 · 4.03 FIP | 29 | SW | 4.03 | 24.4% | 10.9% | 2.9% | .311 | 2.38 | 20.9% | 12.6% | 25 | -1.65 | 2.38 | 160 | 69 |
| Ray Black R 2026 · 4.95 FIP | 29 | SU | 4.95 | 30.8% | 13.2% | 5.1% | .275 | — | — | — | — | — | 2.95 | 150 | 69 |
| Jeff Johnson R 2024 · 3.71 FIP | 27 | SW | 3.71 | 23.6% | 15.6% | 1.1% | .297 | — | — | — | — | — | 2.49 | 160 | 69 |
| Joe Colón J R 2024 · 4.30 FIP | 27 | SU | 4.30 | 20.4% | 12.1% | 2.5% | .315 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.24 | 113 | 69 |
| Javy Guerra R 2027 · 4.30 FIP | 30 | SW | 4.30 | 21.3% | 13.9% | 2.3% | .303 | 3.87 | 19.5% | 13.0% | 193 | -0.43 | 3.01 | 260 | 68 |
| Robert Stock R 2026 · 5.26 FIP | 29 | SU | 5.26 | 25.6% | 14.3% | 4.6% | .396 | 3.91 | 22.9% | 12.3% | 49 | -1.35 | 2.91 | 334 | 68 |
| Zack Jones R 2024 · 4.99 FIP | 27 | SU | 4.99 | 27.7% | 24.1% | 2.1% | .167 | — | — | — | — | — | 2.56 | 109 | 68 |
| Art Warren R 2026 · 4.62 FIP | 29 | SU | 4.62 | 24.2% | 12.7% | 3.6% | .316 | 7.07 | 18.6% | 1.7% | 27 | +2.45 | 1.40 | 322 | 68 |
| Wirfin Obispo R 2027 · 4.83 FIP | 30 | SU | 4.83 | 18.6% | 12.2% | 3.2% | .292 | 1.31 | 28.6% | 24.5% | 126 | -3.52 | 1.30 | 218 | 68 |
| Rico Garcia R 2026 · 5.53 FIP | 29 | SU | 5.53 | 22.9% | 14.8% | 4.5% | .284 | 4.35 | 27.7% | 16.7% | 126 | -1.18 | 3.43 | 525 | 68 |
| Dustin Molleken R 2027 · 3.72 FIP | 30 | SW | 3.72 | 20.4% | 11.7% | 1.6% | .287 | 3.88 | 20.6% | 8.4% | 77 | +0.16 | 3.38 | 129 | 67 |
| Kevin Lenik R 2024 · 4.90 FIP | 27 | SU | 4.90 | 21.7% | 14.9% | 3.2% | .205 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.00 | 107 | 67 |
| Luis García R 2026 · 3.77 FIP | 29 | SW | 3.77 | 20.6% | 10.9% | 1.9% | .281 | 3.74 | 21.6% | 12.6% | 179 | -0.03 | 2.26 | 602 | 67 |
Contract
No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.