Dylan Coleman — OGILVIE

Dylan Coleman P Scranton/Wilkes-Barre RailRiders

Age 30 RHP 6'5" / 235 lbs AAA

2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTION0 act + 58 ip · rates below = full-season projection

showingPROJ

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 132124vR 116

ERA5.29

FIP5.19

K%26.7%

BB%18.8%

K-BB%7.9%

ROS IP58

Value2026 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 58 IP

Grades · Statcast · Arsenal · Contract

Scouting Grades

STUF6565

CTRL2525

CMD4040

K†6060

Statcast Percentiles

FB Velo

p6095.2

Whiff%

p8931.4%

p4821.9%

xwOBA vs

p100.359

CT+0.6 (31%)

SL (6%)

FB (62%)

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2027 so far)
2018	21	A MLE	Fort Wayne TinCaps	13	0	17	73	22	7	0	0%	1.3	22.3%	11.3%	11.0%	0.0%	3.24	2.65	—
2018	21	A RAW	Fort Wayne TinCaps	13	0	17	73	22	7	0	0%	1.3	30.1%	9.6%	20.5%	0.0%	3.24	1.72	—
2019	22	MIX MLE	3 levels	27	2	34	151	39	17	2	7%	1.3	19.5%	12.5%	7.1%	2.1%	3.18	4.16	—
2019	22	MIX RAW	3 levels	27	2	34	151	39	17	2	7%	1.3	25.8%	11.3%	14.6%	1.3%	3.18	3.07	—
2021	24	MIX MLE	3 levels	50	0	64	255	100	22	4	0%	1.3	34.5%	9.7%	24.8%	2.0%	3.09	2.53	+1.6
2021	24	MIX RAW	3 levels	50	0	64	255	100	22	4	0%	1.3	39.2%	8.6%	30.6%	1.6%	3.09	1.82	+2.1
2022	25	MIX MLE	2 levels	69	0	69	293	72	37	5	0%	1.0	24.6%	12.5%	12.1%	1.9%	2.74	3.63	+0.8
2022	25	MIX RAW	2 levels	69	0	69	293	72	37	5	0%	1.0	24.6%	12.6%	11.9%	1.7%	2.74	3.56	+0.8
2023	26	MIX MLE	2 levels	55	1	49	243	69	49	6	2%	0.9	25.6%	18.9%	6.7%	2.8%	6.24	4.85	-0.2
2023	26	MIX RAW	2 levels	55	1	49	243	69	49	6	2%	0.9	28.4%	20.2%	8.2%	2.5%	6.24	4.88	-0.2
2024	27	MIX MLE	2 levels	37	0	37	180	43	43	2	0%	1.0	20.5%	21.5%	-1.0%	1.4%	6.32	4.85	-0.1
2024	27	MIX MLE	2 levels	37	0	37	180	43	43	2	0%	1.0	20.5%	21.5%	-1.0%	1.4%	6.32	4.85	-0.1
2024	27	MIX RAW	2 levels	37	0	37	180	43	43	2	0%	1.0	23.9%	23.9%	0.0%	1.1%	6.32	4.96	-0.2
2025	28	MIX MLE	2 levels	11	0	15	69	14	14	0	0%	1.3	20.3%	20.3%	0.0%	0.0%	4.91	3.96	—
2025	28	MIX MLE	2 levels	11	0	15	69	14	14	0	0%	1.3	20.3%	20.3%	0.0%	0.0%	4.91	3.96	—
2025	28	MIX RAW	2 levels	11	0	15	69	14	14	0	0%	1.3	20.3%	20.3%	0.0%	0.0%	4.91	4.05	—
2026	29	AAA MLE	Scranton/Wilkes-Barre RailRiders	19	0	21	94	26	20	2	0%	1.1	23.8%	19.1%	4.6%	2.3%	2.57	4.80	—
2026	29	AAA MLE	Scranton/Wilkes-Barre RailRiders	19	0	21	94	26	20	2	0%	1.1	23.8%	19.1%	4.6%	2.3%	2.57	4.80	—
2026	29	AAA RAW	Scranton/Wilkes-Barre RailRiders	19	0	21	94	26	20	2	0%	1.1	27.7%	21.3%	6.4%	2.1%	2.57	4.72	—
▸ Career totals (raw MLB only — as recorded)
MLB Career	—			97	1	94	414	100	56	8	1%	1.0	24.2%	13.5%	10.6%	1.9%	3.84	3.87	+0.8
▸ 2027 season — projected remainder (no 2027 stats recorded)
2027	30	MLB	NYY	55	0	58	245	65	46	7	0%	1.1	26.7%	18.8%	7.9%	2.9%	5.29	5.19	-0.4
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2028	31	MLB MLE	NYY	51	0	54	227	58	41	7	0%	1.1	25.6%	18.2%	7.4%	3.1%	5.28	5.34	-0.5
2029	32	MLB MLE	NYY	47	0	50	210	52	38	7	0%	1.1	24.7%	17.9%	6.8%	3.4%	5.39	5.51	-0.5
2028	31	MLB CTX	NYY	19	0	20	84	22	15	3	0%	1.1	25.6%	18.2%	7.4%	3.1%	5.28	5.34	-0.2
2029	32	MLB CTX	NYY	26	0	27	114	28	20	4	0%	1.0	24.7%	17.9%	6.8%	3.4%	5.39	5.51	-0.3
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		142	1	141	613	150	92	15	1%	1.0	24.5%	15.0%	9.5%	2.4%	4.35	4.23	+0.5
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		202	1	200	871	213	131	21	1%	1.0	24.5%	15.0%	9.5%	2.4%	4.35	4.23	+0.7
Career	—	MLE		281	3	305	1358	341	205	25	1%	1.1	25.1%	15.1%	10.0%	1.9%	3.98	3.91	-0.3
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		184	2	200	890	223	134	16	1%	1.1	25.1%	15.1%	10.0%	1.9%	3.98	3.91	-0.3

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Dylan Coleman (OGILVIE)	—	—	5.19	26.7%	18.8%	2.9%	—	5.42	25.2%	7.1%	104	+0.23	—	—	—
Parker Markel R 2021 · 4.23 FIP	30	SU	4.23	31.3%	18.5%	2.6%	.274	4.47	25.5%	10.0%	40	+0.24	3.18	266	70
Jim Miller R 2012 · 4.56 FIP	30	SU	4.56	20.9%	11.8%	3.1%	.243	3.95	18.8%	14.7%	74	-0.61	3.95	140	70
Wirfin Obispo R 2015 · 4.80 FIP	30	SU	4.80	18.6%	12.2%	3.1%	.292	1.31	28.6%	24.5%	126	-3.49	1.30	218	67
Erik Davis R 2017 · 4.25 FIP	30	SU	4.25	22.2%	11.1%	3.0%	.349	3.52	17.4%	8.5%	65	-0.73	3.05	227	67
Hirokazu Sawamura R 2021 · 4.48 FIP	33	SU	4.48	26.2%	11.2%	4.0%	.263	4.02	18.1%	6.8%	51	-0.46	4.02	104	66
Javy Guerra R 2016 · 4.29 FIP	30	SU	4.29	21.3%	13.9%	2.3%	.303	3.95	19.5%	13.0%	193	-0.34	2.94	409	64
Jordan Jankowski R 2018 · 4.76 FIP	29	SU	4.76	21.8%	16.9%	2.5%	.396	—	—	—	—	—	2.57	196	63
Ray Black R 2019 · 4.89 FIP	29	SU	4.89	30.8%	13.2%	5.0%	.275	—	—	—	—	—	2.95	150	63
Shintaro Fujinami R 2024 · 4.55 FIP	30	SU	4.55	22.1%	20.1%	1.4%	.187	4.39	21.7%	-2.9%	19	-0.16	4.09	130	63
Joel Hanrahan R 2012 · 4.54 FIP	30	SU	4.54	26.4%	14.2%	3.4%	.224	—	—	—	—	—	2.08	397	62
Mitchell Osnowitz R 2021 · 5.48 FIP	30	SU	5.48	19.6%	19.2%	2.9%	.337	—	—	—	—	—	4.54	132	62
Taylor Williams R 2021 · 5.96 FIP	30	SU	5.96	19.9%	14.1%	5.0%	.261	3.79	18.8%	9.0%	101	-2.17	2.51	309	62
Wil Browning R 2017 · 4.44 FIP	28	SU	4.44	17.9%	13.1%	2.2%	.359	—	—	—	—	—	2.14	162	62
Dennis Sarfate R 2009 · 4.81 FIP	28	SU	4.81	19.8%	13.9%	3.0%	.281	—	—	—	—	—	4.42	103	61
Jared Mortensen R 2016 · 4.99 FIP	28	SU	4.99	20.9%	18.8%	2.3%	.250	—	—	—	—	—	4.42	200	61
Jackson Rees R 2023 · 5.12 FIP	29	SU	5.12	23.7%	21.1%	2.5%	.304	—	—	—	—	—	1.90	103	61
Jacob Bosiokovic R 2024 · 4.70 FIP	30	SU	4.70	22.4%	12.6%	3.5%	.310	5.57	20.5%	4.8%	22	+0.87	3.84	181	61
Arquimedes Caminero R 2016 · 4.45 FIP	29	SU	4.45	17.9%	11.4%	2.6%	.314	4.62	18.6%	7.5%	38	+0.17	3.54	186	60
Troy Percival R 2000 · 4.46 FIP	30	SU	4.46	22.2%	11.8%	3.2%	.252	3.15	28.2%	18.8%	163	-1.31	2.15	709	60
Edwar Ramirez R 2010 · 4.76 FIP	29	SU	4.76	18.5%	16.7%	2.0%	.235	—	—	—	—	—	3.66	109	60

Career Comps

Completed MLB careers (no pro action in 2+ yrs) whose totals — actual + projected — most resemble this player's. Pool: 754 reliever careers (1990-2025).

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	1.3	64	25.1%	16.7%	1.03	4.78
Derrick Turnbow ('08)	1.3	64	23.4%	14.8%	0.87	4.30
Brian Bruney ('12)	1.3	43	21.2%	15.8%	0.94	4.68
Matt Mantei ('05)	1.6	54	28.0%	14.1%	0.84	4.07
Armando Almanza ('05)	1.1	54	24.4%	14.3%	1.43	4.82
Renyel Pinto ('10)	1.2	58	21.9%	15.0%	0.94	3.62
Kyle Barraclough ('23)	1.4	56	28.2%	13.9%	0.99	3.86