Jace Vines prospect projection, MLE, ETA

Jace Vines P Lehigh Valley IronPigs

Age 31 RHP 6'3" / 215 lbs AAA

2026 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONpark-neutral Marcel · 6 proj IP

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 121112vR 104

ERA4.60

FIP4.60

K%20.6%

BB%9.8%

K-BB%10.9%

ROS IP7

Value2026 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 6 IP

Grades · Contract

Scouting Grades

K†5050

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2026 so far)
2016	21	ROK MLE	Idaho Falls Chukars	13	11	57	271	37	18	6	85%	4.4	9.3%	8.3%	1.0%	3.1%	6.59	5.07	—
2016	21	ROK RAW	Idaho Falls Chukars	13	11	57	271	37	18	6	85%	4.4	13.7%	6.6%	7.0%	2.2%	6.59	4.11	—
2017	22	MIX MLE	3 levels	27	22	146	605	86	38	8	81%	5.4	10.7%	7.6%	3.0%	1.8%	3.45	4.15	—
2017	22	MIX RAW	3 levels	27	22	146	605	86	38	8	81%	5.4	14.2%	6.3%	7.9%	1.3%	3.45	3.42	—
2018	23	MIX MLE	2 levels	27	24	136	617	87	43	10	89%	5.0	11.0%	7.9%	3.1%	2.3%	5.48	4.42	—
2018	23	MIX RAW	2 levels	27	24	136	617	87	43	10	89%	5.0	14.1%	7.0%	7.1%	1.6%	5.48	3.72	—
2019	24	AA MLE	Northwest Arkansas Naturals	11	9	51	239	40	21	5	82%	4.6	13.6%	9.7%	3.9%	2.8%	5.47	4.71	—
2019	24	AA RAW	Northwest Arkansas Naturals	11	9	51	239	40	21	5	82%	4.6	16.7%	8.8%	7.9%	2.1%	5.47	4.04	—
2021	26	AAA MLE	Omaha Storm Chasers	44	1	68	294	67	34	2	2%	1.5	20.1%	12.1%	7.9%	0.7%	4.10	3.34	—
2021	26	AAA RAW	Omaha Storm Chasers	44	1	68	294	67	34	2	2%	1.5	22.8%	11.6%	11.2%	0.7%	4.10	3.01	—
2022	27	AAA MLE	Omaha Storm Chasers	14	0	14	65	20	10	2	0%	1.0	27.1%	16.2%	10.9%	3.4%	7.24	4.75	—
2022	27	AAA RAW	Omaha Storm Chasers	14	0	14	65	20	10	2	0%	1.0	30.8%	15.4%	15.4%	3.1%	7.24	4.27	—
2023	28	MIX MLE	3 levels	17	0	17	85	13	11	1	0%	1.0	11.7%	12.3%	-0.5%	1.6%	5.82	4.55	—
2023	28	MIX MLE	3 levels	17	0	17	85	13	11	1	0%	1.0	11.7%	12.3%	-0.5%	1.6%	5.82	4.55	—
2023	28	MIX RAW	3 levels	17	0	17	85	13	11	1	0%	1.0	15.3%	12.9%	2.4%	1.2%	5.82	4.28	—
▸ 2026 season — projected remainder (no 2026 stats recorded)
2026	31	MLB	PHI	—	—	0	—	—	—	—	—	—	20.6%	9.8%	10.9%	3.0%	4.60	4.60	—
▸ Career projection (2027+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2027	32	MLB MLE	PHI	19	0	20	84	17	9	3	0%	1.1	20.5%	10.1%	10.3%	3.2%	4.71	4.80	-0.1
2027	32	MLB CTX	PHI	7	0	7	30	6	3	1	0%	1.0	20.5%	10.1%	10.3%	3.2%	4.71	4.80	-0.0
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		7	0	7	31	6	3	1	0%	1.1	20.5%	10.1%	10.3%	3.2%	4.71	4.42	+0.0
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		190	0	200	844	163	82	27	0%	1.1	20.5%	10.1%	10.3%	3.2%	4.71	4.42	+0.3
Career	—	MLE		153	67	489	2176	277	197	46	44%	3.2	12.7%	9.1%	3.7%	2.1%	4.87	4.33	-0.1
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		63	27	200	889	113	81	19	44%	3.2	12.7%	9.1%	3.7%	2.1%	4.87	4.33	-0.6

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Jace Vines (OGILVIE)	—	—	4.60	20.6%	9.8%	3.0%	—	4.80	20.5%	10.3%	20	+0.20	—	—	—
Robert Stock R 2021 · 4.18 FIP	31	SW	4.18	23.0%	8.5%	3.5%	.301	7.20	14.3%	0.1%	23	+3.02	2.74	378	71
Elian Leyva R 2019 · 4.30 FIP	30	SP-	4.30	17.0%	8.5%	2.9%	.323	—	—	—	—	—	3.10	158	69
Edgar Alberto Garcia R 2017 · 4.01 FIP	29	SP-	4.01	17.3%	10.9%	1.8%	.305	—	—	—	—	—	4.01	272	68
Yoanner Negrin R 2015 · 3.79 FIP	31	SW	3.79	15.1%	7.5%	1.9%	.256	3.29	15.0%	8.5%	270	-0.50	3.15	485	67
Jared Fernandez R 2003 · 3.57 FIP	31	SP-	3.57	11.8%	6.2%	1.2%	.269	—	—	—	—	—	3.57	101	66
Mike Burns R 2009 · 4.90 FIP	31	SP-	4.90	17.2%	6.6%	4.4%	.307	—	—	—	—	—	3.10	104	66
Angel Sánchez R 2023 · 4.90 FIP	33	SW	4.90	19.0%	10.5%	3.8%	.333	3.77	11.8%	6.8%	27	-1.13	3.77	284	65
Mitch Lively R 2017 · 3.47 FIP	31	SP-	3.47	17.0%	6.4%	1.8%	.304	—	—	—	—	—	2.39	158	65
Jorge Martinez R 2016 · 3.53 FIP	31	SP-	3.53	12.9%	5.3%	1.6%	.266	3.71	16.5%	11.5%	154	+0.18	3.53	214	64
Marco Antonio Duarte R 2019 · 5.03 FIP	32	SW	5.03	12.2%	9.1%	3.3%	.420	—	—	—	—	—	4.07	203	62
Murphy Smith R 2018 · 4.57 FIP	30	SW	4.57	13.6%	9.3%	2.6%	.273	—	—	—	—	—	3.16	300	62
Jose A. Flores R 2018 · 4.77 FIP	29	SP-	4.77	13.7%	10.3%	2.8%	.350	—	—	—	—	—	2.94	237	62
Rudy Gonzalez R 2015 · 4.52 FIP	34	SW	4.52	13.5%	9.6%	2.4%	.347	3.84	14.0%	6.5%	79	-0.68	3.31	119	61
Paolo Espino R 2018 · 4.51 FIP	31	SW	4.51	18.7%	9.6%	3.2%	.348	4.42	20.4%	14.7%	202	-0.09	3.42	933	61
Derek Eitel R 2017 · 4.72 FIP	29	SP-	4.72	17.2%	16.0%	1.9%	.273	—	—	—	—	—	3.96	138	60
Bradin Hagens R 2019 · 5.46 FIP	30	SW	5.46	13.2%	12.6%	3.4%	.303	—	—	—	—	—	3.79	254	60
Juan Omar Espinoza R 2015 · 4.81 FIP	31	SP-	4.81	8.9%	6.6%	3.0%	.346	4.84	8.4%	-0.8%	52	+0.03	4.81	104	59
Marco Carrillo R 2017 · 5.33 FIP	30	SW	5.33	11.1%	7.4%	4.1%	.278	6.08	9.9%	0.8%	104	+0.75	5.33	194	59
A.J. Morris R 2016 · 4.60 FIP	29	SW	4.60	16.9%	6.9%	3.7%	.345	—	—	—	—	—	3.02	123	59
Cody Satterwhite R 2017 · 4.22 FIP	30	SU	4.22	17.0%	7.1%	3.0%	.310	—	—	—	—	—	3.69	147	59