Grades · Contract
Contract
No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.
Career Stats + Projections
Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed
Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | G | GS | IP | BF | K | BB | HR | GS% | IP/G | K% | BB% | K-BB% | HR% | ERA | FIP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2016 | 17 | ROK | DSL Padres | 19 | 0 | 22 | 109 | 26 | 10 | 1 | 0% | 1.2 | 16.2% | 11.5% | 4.8% | 1.3% | 5.24 | 3.89 | — |
| 2016 | 17 | ROK | DSL Padres | 19 | 0 | 22 | 109 | 26 | 10 | 1 | 0% | 1.2 | 23.9% | 9.2% | 14.7% | 0.9% | 5.24 | 2.70 | — |
| 2017 | 18 | ROK | AZL Padres 2 | 24 | 0 | 26 | 118 | 30 | 10 | 1 | 0% | 1.1 | 17.3% | 10.6% | 6.7% | 1.2% | 3.81 | 3.63 | — |
| 2017 | 18 | ROK | AZL Padres 2 | 24 | 0 | 26 | 118 | 30 | 10 | 1 | 0% | 1.1 | 25.4% | 8.5% | 16.9% | 0.8% | 3.81 | 2.45 | — |
| 2018 | 19 | ROK | AZL Padres 1 | 13 | 3 | 42 | 183 | 33 | 8 | 0 | 23% | 3.3 | 12.3% | 5.5% | 6.8% | 0.0% | 4.04 | 2.76 | — |
| 2018 | 19 | ROK | AZL Padres 1 | 13 | 3 | 42 | 183 | 33 | 8 | 0 | 23% | 3.3 | 18.0% | 4.4% | 13.7% | 0.0% | 4.04 | 2.11 | — |
| 2019 | 20 | MIX | 3 levels | 17 | 4 | 45 | 206 | 48 | 15 | 4 | 24% | 2.6 | 15.1% | 9.6% | 5.5% | 2.0% | 4.23 | 4.16 | — |
| 2019 | 20 | MIX | 3 levels | 17 | 4 | 45 | 206 | 48 | 15 | 4 | 24% | 2.6 | 23.3% | 7.3% | 16.0% | 1.9% | 4.23 | 3.12 | — |
| 2021 | 22 | A+ | Fort Wayne TinCaps | 31 | 2 | 66 | 270 | 78 | 17 | 5 | 6% | 2.1 | 22.2% | 7.2% | 15.0% | 2.1% | 3.97 | 3.28 | — |
| 2021 | 22 | A+ | Fort Wayne TinCaps | 31 | 2 | 66 | 270 | 78 | 17 | 5 | 6% | 2.1 | 28.9% | 6.3% | 22.6% | 1.9% | 3.97 | 2.49 | — |
| 2022 | 23 | MIX | 2 levels | 36 | 0 | 76 | 308 | 67 | 22 | 6 | 0% | 2.1 | 17.0% | 8.1% | 8.9% | 3.1% | 2.96 | 4.37 | — |
| 2022 | 23 | MIX | 2 levels | 36 | 0 | 76 | 308 | 67 | 22 | 6 | 0% | 2.1 | 21.8% | 7.1% | 14.6% | 1.9% | 2.96 | 3.23 | — |
| 2023 | 24 | MIX | 2 levels | 29 | 7 | 71 | 308 | 48 | 15 | 13 | 24% | 2.4 | 12.2% | 5.5% | 6.7% | 7.8% | 6.24 | 7.04 | — |
| 2023 | 24 | MIX | 2 levels | 29 | 7 | 71 | 308 | 48 | 15 | 13 | 24% | 2.4 | 15.6% | 4.9% | 10.7% | 4.2% | 6.24 | 4.77 | — |
| ▸ 2026 Season | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2026 | 27 | MLB | SD | 47 | 0 | 50 | 209 | 46 | 18 | 7 | 0% | 1.1 | 22.2% | 8.8% | 13.5% | 3.3% | 4.51 | 4.51 | +0.0 |
| ▸ 2027+ Projections WITH CONTEXT · MLB TIME ONLY ⓘ | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 28 | MLB | SD | 46 | 0 | 48 | 203 | 45 | 18 | 7 | 0% | 1.0 | 22.2% | 9.0% | 13.2% | 3.3% | 4.54 | 4.57 | -0.0 |
| 2028 | 29 | MLB | SD | 44 | 0 | 46 | 193 | 43 | 18 | 7 | 0% | 1.0 | 22.1% | 9.2% | 12.9% | 3.5% | 4.62 | 4.69 | -0.1 |
| 2029 | 30 | MLB | SD | 41 | 0 | 43 | 182 | 40 | 17 | 7 | 0% | 1.1 | 21.8% | 9.5% | 12.3% | 3.6% | 4.75 | 4.84 | -0.1 |
| 2027 | 28 | MLB | SD | 17 | 0 | 18 | 76 | 17 | 7 | 3 | 0% | 1.1 | 22.2% | 9.0% | 13.2% | 3.3% | 4.54 | 4.57 | -0.0 |
| 2028 | 29 | MLB | SD | 24 | 0 | 25 | 106 | 23 | 10 | 4 | 0% | 1.0 | 22.1% | 9.2% | 12.9% | 3.5% | 4.62 | 4.69 | -0.0 |
| 2029 | 30 | MLB | SD | 28 | 0 | 29 | 122 | 27 | 12 | 4 | 0% | 1.0 | 21.8% | 9.5% | 12.3% | 3.6% | 4.75 | 4.84 | -0.1 |
| ▸ Career (MLB actual + context projections) | |||||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | 69 | 0 | 72 | 304 | 67 | 28 | 11 | 0% | 1.0 | 22.0% | 9.3% | 12.7% | 3.5% | 4.65 | 4.34 | +0.4 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 190 | 0 | 200 | 844 | 186 | 78 | 31 | 0% | 1.1 | 22.0% | 9.3% | 12.7% | 3.5% | 4.65 | 4.34 | +2.5 | ||
| Career | — | 169 | 16 | 348 | 1502 | 242 | 116 | 46 | 9% | 2.1 | 16.1% | 7.7% | 8.3% | 3.1% | 4.32 | 4.40 | +4.1 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 97 | 9 | 200 | 864 | 139 | 67 | 26 | 9% | 2.1 | 16.1% | 7.7% | 8.3% | 3.1% | 4.32 | 4.40 | +2.3 | ||
Career Path Comps
What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection
| Profile at Match Age | Next 3 Yrs | Career | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Comp | Age | Role | FIP | K% | BB% | HR/BF | BABIP | FIP | K% | K-BB% | IP | ΔFIP | Low FIP | IP | Match |
| Edwuin Bencomo (OGILVIE) | — | — | 4.51 | 22.2% | 8.8% | 3.3% | — | 4.70 | 22.0% | 12.8% | 137 | +0.19 | — | — | — |
| Austin Ross R 2026 · 3.86 FIP | 27 | SU | 3.86 | 22.9% | 8.0% | 3.1% | .295 | 3.60 | 12.4% | 5.2% | 127 | -0.26 | 3.19 | 269 | 87 |
| Coleman Huntley III R 2027 · 4.14 FIP | 28 | SW | 4.14 | 20.2% | 7.4% | 3.3% | .348 | 3.66 | 23.4% | 13.2% | 86 | -0.48 | 2.38 | 160 | 85 |
| Trevin Michael R 2026 · 4.08 FIP | 27 | SU | 4.08 | 23.0% | 9.1% | 3.2% | .230 | 3.59 | 23.5% | 7.2% | 40 | -0.49 | 2.74 | 188 | 84 |
| Nolan Clenney R 2026 · 4.96 FIP | 27 | SU | 4.96 | 23.3% | 10.7% | 4.5% | .341 | 4.97 | 17.2% | 7.5% | 71 | +0.01 | 3.75 | 223 | 82 |
| Ryan Brasier R 2027 · 4.03 FIP | 28 | SU | 4.03 | 25.0% | 7.7% | 3.8% | .289 | 3.03 | 24.2% | 17.9% | 130 | -1.00 | 2.27 | 426 | 81 |
| Miguel Mejia R 2027 · 3.46 FIP | 28 | SU | 3.46 | 19.6% | 7.2% | 2.0% | .359 | 5.26 | 12.8% | 2.8% | 47 | +1.80 | 3.46 | 108 | 81 |
| Carter Rustad R 2024 · 4.84 FIP | 25 | SU | 4.84 | 19.1% | 8.6% | 4.1% | .278 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.35 | 101 | 81 |
| Jordan Milbrath R 2026 · 3.88 FIP | 27 | SU | 3.88 | 21.5% | 9.5% | 2.5% | .284 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.26 | 386 | 81 |
| Derek Gordon R 2024 · 4.72 FIP | 25 | SW | 4.72 | 19.9% | 9.3% | 3.9% | .315 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.72 | 146 | 81 |
| José A. Váldez R 2026 · 4.52 FIP | 27 | SU | 4.52 | 21.6% | 8.3% | 4.0% | .325 | 4.07 | 18.8% | 6.4% | 153 | -0.45 | 4.02 | 328 | 81 |
| Nick Altermatt R 2025 · 4.51 FIP | 26 | SU | 4.51 | 23.2% | 8.5% | 4.2% | .302 | — | — | — | — | — | 2.25 | 121 | 80 |
| Michael Dimock R 2026 · 4.24 FIP | 27 | SU | 4.24 | 18.9% | 7.8% | 3.2% | .339 | 3.34 | 23.5% | 12.8% | 29 | -0.90 | 3.31 | 166 | 80 |
| Tanner Kohlhepp R 2026 · 3.74 FIP | 27 | SU | 3.74 | 23.4% | 7.6% | 3.0% | .276 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.49 | 150 | 80 |
| John Gorman R 2026 · 4.11 FIP | 27 | SU | 4.11 | 23.4% | 7.5% | 3.7% | .366 | — | — | — | — | — | 2.02 | 141 | 80 |
| Jaye Chapman R 2027 · 3.36 FIP | 28 | SU | 3.36 | 21.6% | 8.5% | 1.8% | .276 | 4.03 | 20.3% | 11.3% | 85 | +0.67 | 3.27 | 150 | 80 |
| Hunter Parsons R 2025 · 5.03 FIP | 26 | SU | 5.03 | 22.8% | 10.9% | 4.5% | .274 | 6.73 | 25.5% | 9.0% | 29 | +1.70 | 4.95 | 183 | 80 |
| Taylor Williams R 2026 · 3.64 FIP | 27 | SU | 3.64 | 24.2% | 8.9% | 2.6% | .309 | 4.33 | 22.5% | 12.7% | 108 | +0.69 | 2.59 | 309 | 80 |
| Cole Sulser R 2026 · 3.43 FIP | 27 | SU | 3.43 | 22.6% | 10.2% | 1.7% | .321 | 2.78 | 28.2% | 18.4% | 140 | -0.65 | 2.29 | 538 | 79 |
| Justin De Fratus R 2026 · 3.88 FIP | 27 | SU | 3.88 | 18.8% | 8.3% | 2.4% | .325 | 4.53 | 12.4% | 6.9% | 279 | +0.65 | 3.88 | 500 | 79 |
| Dalier Hinojosa R 2028 · 3.56 FIP | 29 | SU | 3.56 | 20.4% | 9.8% | 1.7% | .283 | 4.38 | 18.7% | 6.1% | 24 | +0.82 | 3.56 | 104 | 79 |
Career Comps
Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 327 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).
| Player | Yrs | IP/yr | K% | BB% | HR/9 | ERA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION | 4 | 47 | 22.1% | 9.1% | 1.32 | 4.60 |
| José Ruiz ('24) | 5 | 52 | 22.2% | 10.4% | 1.41 | 4.41 |
| Matt Albers ('19) | 5 | 49 | 20.3% | 8.3% | 1.37 | 4.21 |
| Noé Ramirez ('22) | 5 | 52 | 24.8% | 9.0% | 1.33 | 4.19 |
| Drew VerHagen ('23) | 6 | 43 | 19.7% | 9.4% | 1.40 | 4.82 |
| Bud Norris ('18) | 4 | 79 | 22.7% | 9.2% | 1.28 | 5.07 |
| Travis Wood ('17) | 3 | 85 | 20.8% | 9.8% | 1.34 | 4.72 |