Barrett Loseke prospect projection, MLE, ETA

Barrett Loseke P Scranton/Wilkes-Barre RailRiders

Age 29 RHP 6'0" / 170 lbs AAA

2026 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONpark-neutral Marcel · 12 proj IP

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 117109vR 101

ERA4.41

FIP4.41

K%23.4%

BB%9.7%

K-BB%13.7%

ROS IP13

Value2026 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 12 IP

Grades · Contract

Scouting Grades

K†5555

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2026 so far)
2018	21	ROK MLE	GCL Yankees East	10	0	10	47	10	3	0	0%	1.0	21.3%	6.4%	14.9%	0.0%	3.60	2.11	—
2018	21	ROK RAW	GCL Yankees East	10	0	10	47	10	3	0	0%	1.0	21.3%	6.4%	14.9%	0.0%	3.60	2.00	—
2021	24	MIX MLE	2 levels	29	1	66	273	91	31	9	3%	2.3	26.2%	12.8%	13.3%	3.9%	3.56	4.64	—
2021	24	MIX RAW	2 levels	29	1	66	273	91	31	9	3%	2.3	33.3%	11.4%	22.0%	3.3%	3.56	3.53	—
2022	25	AA MLE	Somerset Patriots	37	2	64	273	73	25	8	5%	1.7	21.7%	10.1%	11.6%	3.4%	3.50	4.42	—
2022	25	AA RAW	Somerset Patriots	37	2	64	273	73	25	8	5%	1.7	26.7%	9.2%	17.6%	2.9%	3.50	3.61	—
2023	26	AAA MLE	Scranton/Wilkes-Barre RailRiders	14	0	22	88	24	11	4	0%	1.6	23.5%	11.2%	12.2%	4.9%	2.45	5.24	—
2023	26	AAA MLE	Scranton/Wilkes-Barre RailRiders	14	0	22	88	24	11	4	0%	1.6	23.5%	11.2%	12.2%	4.9%	2.45	5.24	—
2023	26	AAA RAW	Scranton/Wilkes-Barre RailRiders	14	0	22	88	24	11	4	0%	1.6	27.3%	12.5%	14.8%	4.5%	2.45	4.78	—
▸ 2026 season — projected remainder (no 2026 stats recorded)
2026	29	MLB	NYY	—	—	0	—	—	—	—	—	—	23.4%	9.7%	13.7%	3.1%	4.41	4.41	—
▸ Career projection (2027+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2027	30	MLB MLE	NYY	19	0	20	84	19	8	3	0%	1.1	23.1%	9.9%	13.1%	3.2%	4.50	4.57	-0.0
2027	30	MLB CTX	NYY	7	0	7	30	7	3	1	0%	1.0	23.1%	9.9%	13.1%	3.2%	4.50	4.57	-0.0
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		7	0	7	31	7	3	1	0%	1.1	23.1%	9.9%	13.1%	3.2%	4.50	4.19	+0.0
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		190	0	200	844	190	82	27	0%	1.1	23.1%	9.9%	13.1%	3.2%	4.50	4.19	+0.8
Career	—	MLE		90	3	162	681	161	75	24	3%	1.8	23.7%	11.1%	12.6%	3.6%	3.39	4.46	-0.0
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		111	4	200	841	199	93	30	3%	1.8	23.7%	11.1%	12.6%	3.6%	3.39	4.46	-0.0

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Barrett Loseke (OGILVIE)	—	—	4.41	23.4%	9.7%	3.1%	—	4.57	23.1%	13.1%	20	+0.16	—	—	—
Neil Wagner R 2013 · 4.02 FIP	29	SU	4.02	20.5%	7.5%	3.1%	.306	4.05	19.8%	7.5%	43	+0.03	3.11	135	83
Joe Nelson R 2006 · 3.91 FIP	31	SU	3.91	22.8%	10.4%	2.6%	.258	4.05	23.4%	12.8%	94	+0.14	3.08	139	83
Tyler Sturdevant R 2015 · 4.37 FIP	29	SU	4.37	21.3%	8.5%	3.6%	.241	3.97	18.5%	11.9%	118	-0.40	3.44	149	82
Jason Bulger R 2008 · 4.60 FIP	29	SU	4.60	27.4%	12.3%	4.1%	.293	3.94	25.1%	13.3%	90	-0.66	3.78	106	82
Diego Moreno R 2016 · 3.75 FIP	29	SU	3.75	21.0%	8.2%	2.5%	.347	3.13	17.8%	11.9%	54	-0.62	2.29	187	82
Cody Hall R 2017 · 4.03 FIP	29	SU	4.03	26.8%	10.0%	3.5%	.299	3.92	25.9%	8.4%	19	-0.11	3.51	134	81
Coleman Huntley III R 2022 · 4.05 FIP	29	SU	4.05	24.4%	10.9%	3.0%	.311	2.38	20.9%	12.6%	25	-1.67	2.38	160	81
Jim Miller R 2012 · 4.56 FIP	30	SU	4.56	20.9%	11.8%	3.1%	.243	3.95	18.8%	14.7%	74	-0.61	3.95	140	81
Kaleb Bowman R 2023 · 3.88 FIP	26	SU	3.88	22.0%	7.5%	3.1%	.333	4.65	17.5%	6.2%	170	+0.77	3.88	203	80
Gerardo Sanchez R 2017 · 3.47 FIP	28	SU	3.47	21.6%	8.4%	2.1%	.355	3.58	20.5%	15.1%	56	+0.11	2.65	137	79
Ryan Brasier R 2016 · 3.68 FIP	28	SU	3.68	25.0%	7.7%	3.1%	.289	3.09	24.2%	17.9%	130	-0.59	2.31	426	79
Scott Atchison R 2004 · 3.61 FIP	28	SU	3.61	27.1%	9.0%	3.0%	.309	4.55	19.1%	11.5%	31	+0.94	2.52	340	79
Marcos Mateo R 2011 · 3.40 FIP	27	SU	3.40	25.5%	10.2%	2.1%	.361	—	—	—	—	—	3.12	104	78
Wirfin Obispo R 2015 · 4.80 FIP	30	SU	4.80	18.6%	12.2%	3.1%	.292	1.31	28.6%	24.5%	126	-3.49	1.30	218	77
Dustin Molleken R 2015 · 3.74 FIP	30	SU	3.74	20.4%	11.7%	1.6%	.287	3.90	20.6%	8.4%	77	+0.16	3.38	129	77
Andrew Robinson R 2017 · 4.32 FIP	29	SU	4.32	23.4%	8.8%	3.8%	.245	—	—	—	—	—	3.19	160	77
Michael Dimock R 2018 · 3.37 FIP	28	SU	3.37	23.5%	10.7%	1.6%	.346	—	—	—	—	—	3.08	166	76
Brad Deppermann R 2023 · 4.25 FIP	27	SU	4.25	22.7%	9.4%	3.4%	.417	2.87	19.5%	13.2%	71	-1.38	1.94	143	76
Marc Magliaro R 2018 · 3.94 FIP	28	SU	3.94	19.6%	7.3%	2.9%	.307	—	—	—	—	—	3.94	125	76
Joel Peralta R 2005 · 4.67 FIP	29	SU	4.67	20.7%	8.3%	4.1%	.227	4.27	18.0%	13.3%	214	-0.40	2.70	648	76