Luis Frías

P Columbus Clippers

Age 29 RHP 6'3" / 245 lbs AAA peak 0.1 · 2027

Overview

AAARP

Year	Age	Lvl / Team	G	GS	IP	ERA	FIP	K%	BB%	WAR	MLE rates
2023	25	MIX2 levels	56	0	63	3.59	3.61	23.7%	9.9%	0.7	K 21.7% · BB 9.6% · FIP 3.83
2024	26	MIX3 levels	42	1	44	5.93	4.58	23.4%	11.5%	-0.0	K 21.0% · BB 10.4% · FIP 4.68
2025	27	AAACLE	30	0	36	3.00	3.10	21.7%	11.8%	—	K 18.7% · BB 10.6% · FIP 3.21
2027PROJ	29	MLBCLE	129	0	135	5.27	4.84	22.3%	13.5%	-0.4
2028PROJ37% MLB	30	MLBCLE	45	0	47	5.08	4.99	21.6%	13.2%	-0.2
2029PROJ55% MLB	31	MLBCLE	62	0	65	5.11	5.16	20.9%	13.1%	-0.4

Last 3 seasons WAR 0.7 · Next 3 projected WAR -1.1Projected rows: MLB playing time only, park and league context applied.

Contract

No contract data on file.

Scouting grades · 20-80

Stuff52Control23Command27FB velo60

CompsJose Pina (age 29) · Shintaro Fujinami (age 29) · Gregory Infante (age 29)

2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONrates below = full-season projection

showingPROJ

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 125117vR 109

ERA5.27

FIP4.84

K%22.3%

BB%13.5%

K-BB%8.9%

Proj IP135

Value2027 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 135 IP

Grades · Arsenal · Contract

Scouting Grades

STUF5050

CTRL2525

CMD2525

K†5555

SI (10%)

CU (16%)

FB-2.0 (38%)

CT-3.1 (46%)

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2027 so far)
2016	18	ROK MLE	DSL D-backs	13	11	52	237	47	28	0	85%	4.0	13.5%	14.8%	-1.3%	0.0%	3.83	3.83	—
2016	18	ROK RAW	DSL D-backs	13	11	52	237	47	28	0	85%	4.0	19.8%	11.8%	8.0%	0.0%	3.83	2.91	—
2018	20	ROK MLE	ACL D-backs	7	6	29	117	31	11	1	86%	4.1	18.0%	11.8%	6.3%	1.2%	2.48	3.72	—
2018	20	ROK RAW	ACL D-backs	7	6	29	117	31	11	1	86%	4.1	26.5%	9.4%	17.1%	0.9%	2.48	2.55	—
2019	21	A MLE	Kane County Cougars	6	6	27	114	29	12	1	100%	4.4	18.8%	12.4%	6.4%	1.3%	4.39	3.80	—
2019	21	A RAW	Kane County Cougars	6	6	27	114	29	12	1	100%	4.4	25.4%	10.5%	14.9%	0.9%	4.39	2.76	—
2021	23	MIX MLE	4 levels	26	23	115	485	129	50	17	88%	4.4	21.3%	10.3%	11.0%	3.8%	4.87	4.69	+0.3
2021	23	MIX RAW	4 levels	26	23	115	485	129	50	17	88%	4.4	26.6%	10.3%	16.3%	3.5%	4.87	4.09	+1.1
2022	24	MIX MLE	2 levels	42	3	64	301	88	43	7	7%	1.5	26.3%	14.7%	11.6%	2.6%	5.74	4.19	+0.3
2022	24	MIX RAW	2 levels	42	3	64	301	88	43	7	7%	1.5	29.2%	14.3%	15.0%	2.3%	5.74	3.78	+0.6
2023	25	MIX MLE	2 levels	56	0	63	262	62	26	6	0%	1.1	21.7%	9.6%	12.2%	2.5%	3.59	3.83	+0.5
2023	25	MIX RAW	2 levels	56	0	63	262	62	26	6	0%	1.1	23.7%	9.9%	13.7%	2.3%	3.59	3.61	+0.7
2024	26	MIX MLE	3 levels	42	1	44	209	49	24	7	2%	1.0	21.0%	10.4%	10.5%	3.7%	5.93	4.68	-0.1
2024	26	MIX MLE	3 levels	42	1	44	209	49	24	7	2%	1.0	21.0%	10.4%	10.5%	3.7%	5.93	4.68	-0.1
2024	26	MIX RAW	3 levels	42	1	44	209	49	24	7	2%	1.0	23.4%	11.5%	12.0%	3.3%	5.93	4.58	-0.0
2025	27	AAA MLE	Columbus Clippers	30	0	36	161	35	19	1	0%	1.2	18.7%	10.6%	8.1%	0.6%	3.00	3.21	—
2025	27	AAA MLE	Columbus Clippers	30	0	36	161	35	19	1	0%	1.2	18.7%	10.6%	8.1%	0.6%	3.00	3.21	—
2025	27	AAA RAW	Columbus Clippers	30	0	36	161	35	19	1	0%	1.2	21.7%	11.8%	9.9%	0.6%	3.00	3.10	—
▸ Career totals (raw MLB only — as recorded)
MLB Career	—			58	0	61	298	55	46	6	0%	1.1	18.5%	15.4%	3.0%	2.0%	7.38	4.84	-0.2
▸ 2027 season — projected remainder (no 2027 stats recorded)
2027	29	MLB	CLE	129	0	135	570	127	77	16	0%	1.0	22.3%	13.5%	8.9%	2.8%	5.27	4.84	-0.4
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2028	30	MLB MLE	CLE	121	0	127	535	115	70	16	0%	1.0	21.6%	13.2%	8.4%	3.0%	5.08	4.99	-0.6
2029	31	MLB MLE	CLE	112	0	118	499	104	65	16	0%	1.1	20.9%	13.1%	7.7%	3.3%	5.11	5.16	-0.8
2028	30	MLB CTX	CLE	45	0	47	198	43	26	6	0%	1.0	21.6%	13.2%	8.4%	3.0%	5.08	4.99	-0.2
2029	31	MLB CTX	CLE	62	0	65	274	57	36	9	0%	1.0	20.9%	13.1%	7.7%	3.3%	5.11	5.16	-0.4
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		164	0	173	769	155	108	21	0%	1.1	20.1%	14.0%	6.1%	2.7%	5.90	4.67	-0.2
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		190	0	200	891	180	125	24	0%	1.1	20.1%	14.0%	6.1%	2.7%	5.90	4.67	-0.3
Career	—	MLE		222	50	429	1886	388	221	44	23%	1.9	20.6%	11.7%	8.8%	2.3%	4.45	4.14	-1.7
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		103	23	200	879	181	103	21	23%	1.9	20.6%	11.7%	8.8%	2.3%	4.45	4.14	-1.1

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Luis Frías (OGILVIE)	—	—	4.84	22.3%	13.5%	2.8%	—	5.07	21.2%	8.1%	245	+0.23	—	—	—
Jose Pina R 2015 · 4.90 FIP	29	SW	4.90	16.9%	9.2%	3.8%	.231	3.66	13.6%	6.9%	246	-1.24	3.63	424	72
Shintaro Fujinami R 2023 · 4.09 FIP	29	SU	4.09	23.2%	12.3%	2.5%	.290	4.49	22.0%	0.2%	51	+0.40	4.09	130	71
Gregory Infante R 2016 · 4.47 FIP	29	SU	4.47	19.0%	12.3%	2.6%	.333	3.43	22.5%	15.8%	120	-1.04	2.97	230	68
Spencer Bivens R 2023 · 3.91 FIP	29	SU	3.91	18.6%	10.6%	1.9%	.285	3.95	18.1%	11.4%	255	+0.04	3.52	391	66
Grant Black R 2023 · 5.49 FIP	29	SU	5.49	15.9%	11.3%	4.2%	.352	—	—	—	—	—	4.46	215	66
Dustin Molleken R 2015 · 3.74 FIP	30	SU	3.74	20.4%	11.7%	1.6%	.287	3.90	20.6%	8.4%	77	+0.16	3.38	129	65
Coleman Huntley III R 2022 · 4.05 FIP	29	SU	4.05	24.4%	10.9%	3.0%	.311	2.38	20.9%	12.6%	25	-1.67	2.38	160	65
Adam Quintana R 2019 · 4.17 FIP	27	SW	4.17	18.6%	11.7%	2.1%	.297	—	—	—	—	—	1.72	201	64
Luis García R 2016 · 3.75 FIP	29	SU	3.75	20.6%	10.9%	1.8%	.281	3.74	21.6%	12.6%	179	-0.01	2.33	662	64
Jim Miller R 2012 · 4.56 FIP	30	SU	4.56	20.9%	11.8%	3.1%	.243	3.95	18.8%	14.7%	74	-0.61	3.95	140	63
Mike Adams R 2022 · 5.36 FIP	27	SU	5.36	17.1%	11.2%	4.2%	.326	—	—	—	—	—	3.65	109	62
Brandon Cunniff R 2017 · 4.79 FIP	28	SU	4.79	20.1%	11.6%	3.5%	.275	6.80	13.9%	-1.9%	30	+2.01	3.89	180	62
Bo Schultz R 2015 · 4.30 FIP	29	SU	4.30	18.3%	7.9%	3.2%	.218	3.49	15.1%	8.9%	77	-0.81	2.73	141	62
Diego Moreno R 2016 · 3.75 FIP	29	SU	3.75	21.0%	8.2%	2.5%	.347	3.13	17.8%	11.9%	54	-0.62	2.29	187	62
Deck McGuire R 2018 · 5.28 FIP	29	SW	5.28	18.4%	13.2%	3.8%	.262	—	—	—	—	—	3.41	622	62
Wil Browning R 2017 · 4.44 FIP	28	SU	4.44	17.9%	13.1%	2.2%	.359	—	—	—	—	—	2.14	162	61
Yoanner Negrin R 2015 · 3.79 FIP	31	SW	3.79	15.1%	7.5%	1.9%	.256	3.29	15.0%	8.5%	270	-0.50	3.15	485	61
Jared Mortensen R 2016 · 4.99 FIP	28	SU	4.99	20.9%	18.8%	2.3%	.250	—	—	—	—	—	4.42	200	61
Angel Castro R 2015 · 4.50 FIP	32	SU	4.50	15.9%	8.0%	3.1%	.268	4.28	13.6%	5.5%	231	-0.22	3.51	292	61
Willie Eyre R 2007 · 4.53 FIP	29	SU	4.53	13.7%	9.1%	2.6%	.306	2.87	11.1%	5.5%	18	-1.66	2.87	164	60

Career Comps

Completed MLB careers (no pro action in 2+ yrs) whose totals — actual + projected — most resemble this player's. Pool: 3,327 pitcher careers (1,251 from 1990-2025 + 2,076 historical, 1901-2023), also matched on career-to-date at the same age. * Historical (Lahman) careers: rates era-adjusted to 2001-24 league levels; WAR is an OGILVIE proxy.

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	2.2	110	21.1%	13.6%	1.11	5.46
Ewald Pyle ('39-'45, -2 WAR*)	1.4	90	22.5%*	11.8%*	1.23*	5.95*
Ralph Hamner ('46-'49, -1 WAR*)	1.1	73	18.6%*	11.7%*	0.98*	5.21*
Mysterious Walker ('10-'15, -1 WAR*)	1.5	99	20.6%*	11.4%*	1.25*	5.38*
Robinson Tejeda ('11)	2.2	74	19.1%	12.6%	0.96	4.42
Touki Toussaint ('25)	1.4	40	23.1%	14.1%	1.24	5.42
Seth McClung ('09)	2.2	86	16.2%	13.1%	1.28	5.46