Luis Frías
P
Columbus Clippers
+0.1
WAR
Age 28
RHP
6'3" / 245 lbs
AAA
peak 0.2 · 2026
ERA5.39
FIP4.45
xFIP4.11
SIERA4.33
K%21.5%
BB%10.9%
K-BB%10.6%
IP34
trajectory · 10 yrs
0.2peak
2026
STUF5050
CTRL2525
CMD2525
K†5555
FB Velo
p7296.1
Whiff%
p5726.4%
K%
p2618.7%
xwOBA vs
p230.344
SI (10%)
CU (16%)
FB-2.0 (38%)
CT-3.1 (46%)
Career (MLE) + Projections
Park-neutral MLB-equivalent. MiLB translated via MLE factors. FIP-based WAR vs replacement FIP=5.3 (SP) / 4.95 (RP, <80 IP). FIP+ = runs above league-avg FIP · REP = replacement-level bonus.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | G | GS | IP | BF | K | BB | HR | K% | BB% | HR% | ERA | FIP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2016 | 18 | ROK | DSL D-backs | 13 | 11 | 52 | 237 | 47 | 28 | 0 | 13.5% | 14.8% | 0.0% | 3.83 | 3.83 | +0.7 |
| 2018 | 20 | ROK | ACL D-backs | 7 | 6 | 29 | 117 | 31 | 11 | 1 | 18.0% | 11.8% | 1.2% | 2.48 | 3.72 | +0.4 |
| 2019 | 21 | A | Kane County Cougars | 6 | 6 | 27 | 114 | 29 | 12 | 1 | 18.8% | 12.4% | 1.3% | 4.39 | 3.81 | +0.3 |
| 2021 | 23 | MLB | Arizona Diamondbacks | 26 | 23 | 115 | 485 | 129 | 50 | 17 | 21.3% | 10.3% | 3.6% | 4.87 | 4.59 | +0.9 |
| 2022 | 24 | MLB | Arizona Diamondbacks | 42 | 3 | 64 | 301 | 88 | 43 | 7 | 26.3% | 14.7% | 2.6% | 5.74 | 4.19 | +0.6 |
| 2023 | 25 | MLB | Arizona Diamondbacks | 56 | 0 | 63 | 262 | 62 | 26 | 6 | 22.0% | 10.1% | 2.4% | 3.59 | 3.82 | +0.8 |
| 2024 | 26 | MLB | Toronto Blue Jays | 42 | 1 | 44 | 209 | 49 | 24 | 7 | 21.3% | 11.6% | 3.6% | 5.93 | 4.77 | +0.1 |
| 2025 | 27 | AAA | Columbus Clippers | 30 | 0 | 36 | 161 | 35 | 19 | 1 | 19.1% | 12.4% | 0.6% | 3.00 | 3.41 | +0.6 |
| ▸ 2026 Season | ||||||||||||||||
| 2026 | 28 | MLB | CLE | 34 | — | 34 | 145 | 35 | 20 | 4 | 24.0% | 13.6% | 2.7% | 5.76 | 4.65 | +0.1 |
| ▸ 2027+ Projections — Marcel base + age-bracket aging | ||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 29 | MLB | CLE | 34 | — | 34 | 141 | 33 | 19 | 4 | 23.4% | 13.2% | 2.8% | 5.10 | 4.69 | +0.1 |
| 2028 | 30 | MLB | CLE | 32 | — | 32 | 137 | 31 | 18 | 4 | 22.9% | 13.0% | 2.8% | 4.88 | 4.75 | +0.1 |
| 2029 | 31 | MLB | CLE | 31 | — | 31 | 133 | 30 | 17 | 4 | 22.3% | 13.0% | 2.9% | 4.84 | 4.83 | +0.0 |
| 2030 | 32 | MLB | CLE | 30 | — | 30 | 127 | 28 | 17 | 4 | 21.7% | 13.0% | 3.0% | 4.89 | 4.93 | +0.0 |
| 2031 | 33 | MLB | CLE | 29 | — | 29 | 121 | 26 | 16 | 4 | 21.1% | 13.2% | 3.1% | 4.99 | 5.06 | -0.0 |
| ▸ Career (all levels · actual + projected) | ||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | 222 | 50 | 429 | 1886 | 390 | 228 | 43 | 20.7% | 12.1% | 2.3% | 4.45 | 4.14 | +5.6 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 103 | 23 | 200 | 879 | 182 | 106 | 20 | 20.7% | 12.1% | 2.3% | 4.45 | 4.14 | +2.6 | ||
Career Path Comps
What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection
| Profile at Match Age | Next 3 Yrs | Career | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Comp | Age | Role | FIP | K% | BB% | HR/BF | BABIP | FIP | K% | K-BB% | IP | ΔFIP | Low FIP | IP | Match |
| Luis Frías (OGILVIE) | — | — | 4.65 | 24.0% | 13.6% | 2.7% | — | 4.76 | 22.9% | 9.8% | 97 | +0.11 | — | — | — |
| Spencer Bivens R 2026 · 4.85 FIP | 28 | SU | 4.85 | 19.8% | 13.5% | 3.1% | .265 | 3.87 | 18.2% | 10.2% | 272 | -0.98 | 3.45 | 315 | 84 |
| Daniel Robert R 2026 · 3.63 FIP | 28 | SU | 3.63 | 23.3% | 12.5% | 1.7% | .310 | 3.09 | 25.8% | 16.6% | 87 | -0.54 | 2.28 | 186 | 84 |
| Joe Colón J R 2025 · 4.30 FIP | 27 | SU | 4.30 | 20.4% | 12.1% | 2.5% | .315 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.24 | 113 | 82 |
| Cole McDonald R 2025 · 5.16 FIP | 27 | SU | 5.16 | 21.1% | 13.8% | 3.8% | .281 | — | — | — | — | — | 2.84 | 153 | 79 |
| José A. Váldez R 2026 · 4.02 FIP | 28 | SU | 4.02 | 23.1% | 16.2% | 1.5% | .325 | 4.21 | 16.8% | 6.2% | 103 | +0.19 | 4.02 | 328 | 79 |
| Wirfin Obispo R 2028 · 4.83 FIP | 30 | SU | 4.83 | 18.6% | 12.2% | 3.2% | .292 | 1.31 | 28.6% | 24.5% | 126 | -3.52 | 1.30 | 218 | 78 |
| Peyton Gray R 2024 · 4.26 FIP | 26 | SU | 4.26 | 29.2% | 14.1% | 3.4% | .307 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.26 | 104 | 78 |
| Jose Rafael De Paula R 2026 · 4.51 FIP | 28 | SU | 4.51 | 23.3% | 13.6% | 3.0% | .313 | — | — | — | — | — | 2.65 | 315 | 78 |
| Ronald Peña R 2025 · 4.57 FIP | 27 | SU | 4.57 | 20.5% | 12.6% | 2.9% | .355 | 4.49 | 16.5% | 6.1% | 39 | -0.08 | 3.70 | 187 | 78 |
| Austin Adams R 2026 · 3.51 FIP | 28 | SU | 3.51 | 18.6% | 9.5% | 1.4% | .331 | 3.28 | 21.1% | 15.0% | 56 | -0.23 | 3.28 | 162 | 77 |
| Mason Vinyard R 2024 · 4.41 FIP | 26 | SU | 4.41 | 21.8% | 14.5% | 2.4% | .254 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.60 | 154 | 77 |
| Al Alburquerque R 2027 · 3.56 FIP | 29 | SW | 3.56 | 21.4% | 11.1% | 1.6% | .330 | 3.23 | 21.3% | 12.5% | 114 | -0.33 | 2.83 | 228 | 77 |
| José Cisnero R 2025 · 4.50 FIP | 27 | SU | 4.50 | 26.1% | 11.7% | 3.9% | .367 | 3.92 | 24.5% | 13.3% | 75 | -0.58 | 2.26 | 279 | 77 |
| Collin Baumgartner R 2024 · 3.76 FIP | 26 | SW | 3.76 | 23.9% | 12.3% | 2.0% | .291 | — | — | — | — | — | 2.99 | 117 | 77 |
| Dustin Molleken R 2028 · 3.72 FIP | 30 | SW | 3.72 | 20.4% | 11.7% | 1.6% | .287 | 3.88 | 20.6% | 8.4% | 77 | +0.16 | 3.38 | 129 | 76 |
| Matt Ramsey R 2026 · 3.76 FIP | 28 | SU | 3.76 | 24.9% | 8.8% | 3.0% | .276 | 2.42 | 21.7% | 12.6% | 34 | -1.34 | 2.42 | 125 | 76 |
| Brandon Maurer R 2026 · 4.89 FIP | 28 | SW | 4.89 | 19.7% | 13.0% | 3.3% | .339 | — | — | — | — | — | 2.98 | 234 | 76 |
| Tanner Scheppers R 2026 · 4.38 FIP | 28 | SW | 4.38 | 17.7% | 11.2% | 2.5% | .263 | 4.82 | 15.7% | 9.0% | 48 | +0.44 | 4.38 | 101 | 76 |
| Grant Sides R 2025 · 3.83 FIP | 27 | SW | 3.83 | 22.4% | 11.9% | 2.0% | .247 | 3.31 | 21.7% | 11.9% | 47 | -0.52 | 3.31 | 159 | 76 |
| Brandon Cunniff R 2026 · 4.82 FIP | 28 | SW | 4.82 | 20.1% | 11.6% | 3.6% | .275 | 6.70 | 13.9% | -1.9% | 30 | +1.88 | 3.88 | 180 | 75 |
Contract
No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.