Luis Frías — OGILVIE

Luis Frías P Columbus Clippers

Age 28 RHP 6'3" / 245 lbs AAA peak 0.1 · 2026

2026 ROS PROJECTION0 act + 5 ip · rates below = ROS only

showingROS

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 124116vR 108

ERA4.85

FIP4.80

K%21.8%

BB%13.3%

K-BB%8.5%

ROS IP5

Value2026 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 5 IP

Grades · Arsenal · Contract

Scouting Grades

STUF5050

CTRL2525

CMD2525

K†5050

SI (10%)

CU (16%)

FB-2.0 (38%)

CT-3.1 (46%)

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2026 so far)
2016	18	ROK MLE	DSL D-backs	13	11	52	237	47	28	0	85%	4.0	13.5%	14.8%	-1.3%	0.0%	3.83	3.83	—
2016	18	ROK RAW	DSL D-backs	13	11	52	237	47	28	0	85%	4.0	19.8%	11.8%	8.0%	0.0%	3.83	2.91	—
2018	20	ROK MLE	ACL D-backs	7	6	29	117	31	11	1	86%	4.1	18.0%	11.8%	6.3%	1.2%	2.48	3.72	—
2018	20	ROK RAW	ACL D-backs	7	6	29	117	31	11	1	86%	4.1	26.5%	9.4%	17.1%	0.9%	2.48	2.55	—
2019	21	A MLE	Kane County Cougars	6	6	27	114	29	12	1	100%	4.4	18.8%	12.4%	6.4%	1.3%	4.39	3.80	—
2019	21	A RAW	Kane County Cougars	6	6	27	114	29	12	1	100%	4.4	25.4%	10.5%	14.9%	0.9%	4.39	2.76	—
2021	23	MIX MLE	4 levels	26	23	115	485	129	50	17	88%	4.4	21.3%	10.3%	11.0%	3.8%	4.87	4.69	+0.3
2021	23	MIX RAW	4 levels	26	23	115	485	129	50	17	88%	4.4	26.6%	10.3%	16.3%	3.5%	4.87	4.09	+1.1
2022	24	MIX MLE	2 levels	42	3	64	301	88	43	7	7%	1.5	26.3%	14.7%	11.6%	2.6%	5.74	4.19	+0.3
2022	24	MIX RAW	2 levels	42	3	64	301	88	43	7	7%	1.5	29.2%	14.3%	15.0%	2.3%	5.74	3.78	+0.6
2023	25	MIX MLE	2 levels	56	0	63	262	62	26	6	0%	1.1	21.3%	9.6%	11.7%	2.5%	3.59	3.86	+0.5
2023	25	MIX MLE	2 levels	56	0	63	262	62	26	6	0%	1.1	21.3%	9.6%	11.7%	2.5%	3.59	3.86	+0.5
2023	25	MIX RAW	2 levels	56	0	63	262	62	26	6	0%	1.1	23.7%	9.9%	13.7%	2.3%	3.59	3.61	+0.7
2024	26	MIX MLE	3 levels	42	1	44	209	49	24	7	2%	1.0	20.4%	10.4%	10.0%	3.7%	5.93	4.72	-0.1
2024	26	MIX MLE	3 levels	42	1	44	209	49	24	7	2%	1.0	20.4%	10.4%	10.0%	3.7%	5.93	4.72	-0.1
2024	26	MIX RAW	3 levels	42	1	44	209	49	24	7	2%	1.0	23.4%	11.5%	12.0%	3.3%	5.93	4.58	-0.0
2025	27	AAA MLE	Columbus Clippers	30	0	36	161	35	19	1	0%	1.2	18.0%	10.6%	7.4%	0.6%	3.00	3.26	—
2025	27	AAA MLE	Columbus Clippers	30	0	36	161	35	19	1	0%	1.2	18.0%	10.6%	7.4%	0.6%	3.00	3.26	—
2025	27	AAA RAW	Columbus Clippers	30	0	36	161	35	19	1	0%	1.2	21.7%	11.8%	9.9%	0.6%	3.00	3.10	—
▸ Career totals (raw MLB only — as recorded)
MLB Career	—			58	0	61	298	55	46	6	0%	1.1	18.5%	15.4%	3.0%	2.0%	7.38	4.84	-0.2
▸ 2026 season — projected remainder (no 2026 stats recorded)
2026	28	MLB	CLE	5	0	5	21	5	3	1	0%	1.0	21.8%	13.3%	8.5%	2.7%	4.85	4.80	-0.0
▸ Career projection (2027+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2027	29	MLB MLE	CLE	58	0	61	259	55	34	7	0%	1.1	21.4%	13.1%	8.2%	2.9%	4.87	4.91	-0.2
2028	30	MLB MLE	CLE	55	0	58	244	51	32	8	0%	1.0	20.8%	13.1%	7.7%	3.1%	4.98	5.08	-0.3
2027	29	MLB CTX	CLE	22	0	23	97	21	13	3	0%	1.0	21.4%	13.1%	8.2%	2.9%	4.87	4.91	-0.1
2028	30	MLB CTX	CLE	30	0	32	135	28	18	4	0%	1.1	20.8%	13.1%	7.7%	3.1%	4.98	5.08	-0.2
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		110	0	115	528	103	76	13	0%	1.0	19.6%	14.4%	5.1%	2.4%	6.23	4.61	-0.1
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		190	0	200	915	179	132	23	0%	1.1	19.6%	14.4%	5.1%	2.4%	6.23	4.61	-0.2
Career	—	MLE		222	50	429	1886	384	221	44	23%	1.9	20.4%	11.7%	8.7%	2.3%	4.45	4.15	-0.8
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		103	23	200	879	179	103	21	23%	1.9	20.4%	11.7%	8.7%	2.3%	4.45	4.15	-0.9

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Luis Frías (OGILVIE)	—	—	4.80	21.8%	13.3%	2.7%	—	4.99	21.1%	8.0%	119	+0.19	—	—	—
Spencer Bivens R 2022 · 4.86 FIP	28	SU	4.86	19.8%	13.5%	3.1%	.265	3.86	18.0%	10.2%	272	-1.00	3.52	390	81
Dustin Molleken R 2015 · 3.74 FIP	30	SU	3.74	20.4%	11.7%	1.6%	.287	3.90	20.6%	8.4%	77	+0.16	3.38	129	78
Luis Mateo R 2017 · 4.60 FIP	27	SU	4.60	17.6%	11.2%	2.9%	.309	5.55	8.6%	-4.8%	43	+0.95	3.48	160	78
Josh Zeid R 2015 · 4.12 FIP	28	SU	4.12	16.6%	12.5%	1.6%	.302	5.19	16.9%	5.7%	194	+1.07	4.12	265	78
Sam Gardner R 2023 · 4.04 FIP	26	SU	4.04	23.8%	15.1%	1.9%	.298	3.07	26.7%	16.7%	73	-0.97	2.28	118	77
Brandon Cunniff R 2017 · 4.79 FIP	28	SU	4.79	20.1%	11.6%	3.5%	.275	6.80	13.9%	-1.9%	30	+2.01	3.89	180	77
Shintaro Fujinami R 2023 · 4.09 FIP	29	SU	4.09	23.2%	12.3%	2.5%	.290	4.55	21.2%	-0.6%	51	+0.46	4.09	130	76
Tanner Scheppers R 2015 · 4.37 FIP	28	SU	4.37	17.7%	11.2%	2.5%	.263	4.86	15.7%	9.0%	48	+0.49	4.37	101	75
Grant Sides R 2016 · 3.83 FIP	27	SU	3.83	22.4%	11.9%	2.0%	.247	3.31	21.7%	11.9%	47	-0.52	3.31	159	75
Joe Colón J R 2017 · 4.25 FIP	27	SU	4.25	20.4%	12.1%	2.4%	.315	—	—	—	—	—	3.27	113	75
Cody Satterwhite R 2015 · 3.71 FIP	28	SU	3.71	20.2%	9.8%	1.9%	.333	4.04	17.7%	10.2%	75	+0.33	3.69	147	75
Ronald Peña R 2019 · 4.55 FIP	27	SU	4.55	20.5%	12.6%	2.9%	.355	4.49	16.5%	6.1%	39	-0.06	3.72	187	74
Wil Browning R 2017 · 4.44 FIP	28	SU	4.44	17.9%	13.1%	2.2%	.359	—	—	—	—	—	2.14	162	74
José A. Váldez R 2018 · 4.02 FIP	28	SU	4.02	23.1%	16.2%	1.5%	.325	4.21	16.8%	6.2%	103	+0.19	4.02	328	74
Javy Guerra R 2016 · 4.29 FIP	30	SU	4.29	21.3%	13.9%	2.3%	.303	3.95	19.5%	13.0%	193	-0.34	2.95	260	74
Wirfin Obispo R 2015 · 4.80 FIP	30	SU	4.80	18.6%	12.2%	3.1%	.292	1.31	28.6%	24.5%	126	-3.49	1.30	218	74
Mike Adams R 2022 · 5.36 FIP	27	SU	5.36	17.1%	11.2%	4.2%	.326	—	—	—	—	—	3.65	109	74
Trevor Cahill R 2016 · 4.22 FIP	28	SU	4.22	23.2%	11.8%	2.9%	.274	4.60	21.1%	11.2%	310	+0.38	3.37	556	74
Jhan Mariñez R 2017 · 3.97 FIP	28	SU	3.97	17.2%	8.8%	2.2%	.309	4.09	21.2%	13.3%	48	+0.12	3.16	253	73
Travis Hissong R 2017 · 4.17 FIP	26	SU	4.17	20.3%	13.5%	2.0%	.308	—	—	—	—	—	3.01	122	73

Career Comps

Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 133 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	0.9	61	21.3%	13.2%	1.11	4.90
Daniel Bard ('23)	1.0	50	25.1%	13.5%	0.81	3.82
José Ruiz ('24)	1.3	52	22.2%	10.4%	1.41	4.41
Amir Garrett ('23)	1.5	51	25.8%	13.4%	1.50	5.10
Miguel Castro ('23)	2.1	59	20.8%	12.0%	1.04	3.99
John Gant ('21)	1.7	85	20.1%	12.5%	0.79	3.91
Keegan Thompson ('24)	1.1	57	23.0%	11.3%	1.19	3.64