Luis Frías
P
Columbus Clippers
Age 28
RHP
6'3" / 245 lbs
AAA
2026 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONpark-neutral Marcel · 64 proj IP
wRC+ AGAINSTvL 129120vR 111
ERA4.89
FIP4.89
K%22.5%
BB%14.5%
K-BB%8.0%
ROS IP64
Value2026 · WAR
Runs saved vs league avg · 64 IP
Grades · Arsenal · Contract
SI (10%)
CU (16%)
FB-2.0 (38%)
CT-3.1 (46%)
Contract
No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.
Career Stats + Projections
Viewactual = stats as recorded (seasons combined) + projected real-world MLB lines · MLE = level/park-neutral translations
Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed
Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | G | GS | IP | BF | K | BB | HR | GS% | IP/G | K% | BB% | K-BB% | HR% | ERA | FIP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2016 | 18 | ROK | DSL D-backs | 13 | 11 | 52 | 237 | 47 | 28 | 0 | 85% | 4.0 | 13.5% | 14.8% | -1.3% | 0.0% | 3.83 | 3.83 | — |
| 2016 | 18 | ROK | DSL D-backs | 13 | 11 | 52 | 237 | 47 | 28 | 0 | 85% | 4.0 | 19.8% | 11.8% | 8.0% | 0.0% | 3.83 | 2.91 | — |
| 2018 | 20 | ROK | ACL D-backs | 7 | 6 | 29 | 117 | 31 | 11 | 1 | 86% | 4.1 | 18.0% | 11.8% | 6.3% | 1.2% | 2.48 | 3.72 | — |
| 2018 | 20 | ROK | ACL D-backs | 7 | 6 | 29 | 117 | 31 | 11 | 1 | 86% | 4.1 | 26.5% | 9.4% | 17.1% | 0.9% | 2.48 | 2.55 | — |
| 2019 | 21 | A | Kane County Cougars | 6 | 6 | 27 | 114 | 29 | 12 | 1 | 100% | 4.4 | 18.8% | 12.4% | 6.4% | 1.5% | 4.39 | 3.92 | — |
| 2019 | 21 | A | Kane County Cougars | 6 | 6 | 27 | 114 | 29 | 12 | 1 | 100% | 4.4 | 25.4% | 10.5% | 14.9% | 0.9% | 4.39 | 2.76 | — |
| 2021 | 23 | MIX | 4 levels | 26 | 23 | 115 | 485 | 129 | 50 | 17 | 88% | 4.4 | 21.3% | 10.3% | 11.0% | 3.2% | 4.87 | 4.36 | +1.4 |
| 2021 | 23 | MIX | 4 levels | 26 | 23 | 115 | 485 | 129 | 50 | 17 | 88% | 4.4 | 26.6% | 10.3% | 16.3% | 3.5% | 4.87 | 4.09 | +1.8 |
| 2022 | 24 | MIX | 2 levels | 42 | 3 | 64 | 301 | 88 | 43 | 7 | 7% | 1.5 | 26.3% | 14.7% | 11.6% | 2.7% | 5.74 | 4.21 | +0.3 |
| 2022 | 24 | MIX | 2 levels | 42 | 3 | 64 | 301 | 88 | 43 | 7 | 7% | 1.5 | 29.2% | 14.3% | 15.0% | 2.3% | 5.74 | 3.78 | +0.6 |
| 2023 | 25 | MIX | 2 levels | 56 | 0 | 63 | 262 | 62 | 26 | 6 | 0% | 1.1 | 22.0% | 10.1% | 11.9% | 2.3% | 3.59 | 3.80 | +0.6 |
| 2023 | 25 | MIX | 2 levels | 56 | 0 | 63 | 262 | 62 | 26 | 6 | 0% | 1.1 | 23.7% | 9.9% | 13.7% | 2.3% | 3.59 | 3.61 | +0.7 |
| 2024 | 26 | MIX | 3 levels | 42 | 1 | 44 | 209 | 49 | 24 | 7 | 2% | 1.0 | 21.3% | 11.6% | 9.7% | 3.7% | 5.93 | 4.81 | -0.1 |
| 2024 | 26 | MIX | 3 levels | 42 | 1 | 44 | 209 | 49 | 24 | 7 | 2% | 1.0 | 23.4% | 11.5% | 12.0% | 3.3% | 5.93 | 4.58 | -0.0 |
| 2025 | 27 | AAA | Columbus Clippers | 30 | 0 | 36 | 161 | 35 | 19 | 1 | 0% | 1.2 | 19.1% | 12.4% | 6.7% | 0.6% | 3.00 | 3.37 | — |
| 2025 | 27 | AAA | Columbus Clippers | 30 | 0 | 36 | 161 | 35 | 19 | 1 | 0% | 1.2 | 21.7% | 11.8% | 9.9% | 0.6% | 3.00 | 3.10 | — |
| ▸ 2026 Season | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2026 | 28 | MLB | CLE | 61 | 0 | 64 | 271 | 61 | 39 | 7 | 0% | 1.1 | 22.5% | 14.5% | 8.0% | 2.7% | 4.89 | 4.89 | -0.2 |
| ▸ 2027+ Projections WITH CONTEXT · MLB TIME ONLY ⓘ | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 29 | MLB | CLE | 58 | 0 | 61 | 259 | 57 | 37 | 7 | 0% | 1.1 | 22.0% | 14.2% | 7.8% | 2.9% | 4.93 | 4.99 | -0.3 |
| 2028 | 30 | MLB | CLE | 55 | 0 | 58 | 244 | 52 | 34 | 7 | 0% | 1.0 | 21.4% | 14.1% | 7.3% | 3.1% | 5.04 | 5.15 | -0.4 |
| 2027 | 29 | MLB | CLE | 22 | 0 | 23 | 97 | 21 | 14 | 3 | 0% | 1.0 | 22.0% | 14.2% | 7.8% | 2.9% | 4.93 | 4.99 | -0.1 |
| 2028 | 30 | MLB | CLE | 30 | 0 | 32 | 135 | 29 | 19 | 4 | 0% | 1.1 | 21.4% | 14.1% | 7.3% | 3.1% | 5.04 | 5.15 | -0.2 |
| ▸ Career (MLB actual + context projections) | |||||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | 110 | 0 | 115 | 528 | 105 | 78 | 13 | 0% | 1.0 | 19.8% | 14.9% | 5.0% | 2.4% | 6.25 | 4.65 | +1.0 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 190 | 0 | 200 | 915 | 182 | 135 | 23 | 0% | 1.1 | 19.8% | 14.9% | 5.0% | 2.4% | 6.25 | 4.65 | +1.8 | ||
| Career | — | 222 | 50 | 429 | 1886 | 390 | 228 | 41 | 23% | 1.9 | 20.7% | 12.1% | 8.6% | 2.2% | 4.45 | 4.09 | +6.6 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 103 | 23 | 200 | 879 | 182 | 106 | 19 | 23% | 1.9 | 20.7% | 12.1% | 8.6% | 2.2% | 4.45 | 4.09 | +3.1 | ||
Career Path Comps
What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection
| Profile at Match Age | Next 3 Yrs | Career | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Comp | Age | Role | FIP | K% | BB% | HR/BF | BABIP | FIP | K% | K-BB% | IP | ΔFIP | Low FIP | IP | Match |
| Luis Frías (OGILVIE) | — | — | 4.89 | 22.5% | 14.5% | 2.7% | — | 5.07 | 21.7% | 7.5% | 119 | +0.18 | — | — | — |
| Spencer Bivens R 2026 · 4.81 FIP | 28 | SU | 4.81 | 19.8% | 13.5% | 3.0% | .265 | 3.88 | 18.2% | 10.2% | 272 | -0.93 | 3.53 | 365 | 80 |
| Josh Zeid R 2026 · 4.21 FIP | 28 | SU | 4.21 | 16.6% | 12.5% | 1.7% | .302 | 5.16 | 16.9% | 5.7% | 194 | +0.95 | 4.21 | 265 | 77 |
| Luis Mateo R 2025 · 4.33 FIP | 27 | SU | 4.33 | 17.6% | 11.2% | 2.4% | .309 | 5.34 | 8.6% | -4.8% | 43 | +1.01 | 3.43 | 160 | 76 |
| Shintaro Fujinami R 2027 · 3.99 FIP | 29 | SU | 3.99 | 23.2% | 12.3% | 2.4% | .290 | 4.88 | 22.5% | -2.9% | 51 | +0.89 | 3.99 | 130 | 75 |
| José A. Váldez R 2026 · 4.02 FIP | 28 | SU | 4.02 | 23.1% | 16.2% | 1.5% | .325 | 4.10 | 16.8% | 6.2% | 103 | +0.08 | 4.02 | 328 | 75 |
| Grant Sides R 2025 · 3.89 FIP | 27 | SU | 3.89 | 22.4% | 11.9% | 2.1% | .247 | 3.24 | 21.7% | 11.9% | 47 | -0.65 | 3.24 | 159 | 74 |
| Brandon Maurer R 2026 · 4.83 FIP | 28 | SU | 4.83 | 19.7% | 13.0% | 3.2% | .339 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.21 | 234 | 74 |
| Brandon Cunniff R 2026 · 4.96 FIP | 28 | SU | 4.96 | 20.1% | 11.6% | 3.8% | .275 | 7.33 | 13.9% | -1.9% | 30 | +2.37 | 3.78 | 180 | 74 |
| Javy Guerra R 2028 · 4.25 FIP | 30 | SU | 4.25 | 21.3% | 13.9% | 2.2% | .303 | 3.99 | 19.5% | 13.0% | 193 | -0.26 | 2.95 | 260 | 74 |
| Wil Browning R 2026 · 4.58 FIP | 28 | SU | 4.58 | 17.9% | 13.1% | 2.4% | .359 | — | — | — | — | — | 2.12 | 162 | 74 |
| Ronald Peña R 2025 · 4.51 FIP | 27 | SU | 4.51 | 20.5% | 12.6% | 2.8% | .355 | 4.54 | 16.5% | 6.1% | 39 | +0.03 | 3.57 | 187 | 74 |
| Joe Colón J R 2025 · 4.04 FIP | 27 | SU | 4.04 | 20.4% | 12.1% | 2.1% | .315 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.28 | 113 | 73 |
| Tanner Scheppers R 2026 · 4.39 FIP | 28 | SU | 4.39 | 17.7% | 11.2% | 2.5% | .263 | 4.65 | 15.7% | 9.0% | 48 | +0.26 | 4.39 | 101 | 73 |
| Wirfin Obispo R 2028 · 4.87 FIP | 30 | SU | 4.87 | 18.6% | 12.2% | 3.3% | .292 | 1.30 | 28.6% | 24.5% | 126 | -3.57 | 1.30 | 218 | 73 |
| Kyle Dowdy R 2026 · 5.10 FIP | 28 | SU | 5.10 | 20.3% | 14.6% | 3.4% | .282 | 3.59 | 21.9% | 8.9% | 116 | -1.51 | 2.81 | 606 | 72 |
| Jeff Ames R 2026 · 4.45 FIP | 28 | SU | 4.45 | 25.6% | 16.8% | 2.5% | .351 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.89 | 272 | 72 |
| Mike Adams R 2025 · 5.26 FIP | 27 | SU | 5.26 | 17.1% | 11.2% | 4.0% | .326 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.66 | 109 | 72 |
| Trevor Cahill R 2026 · 4.23 FIP | 28 | SU | 4.23 | 23.2% | 11.8% | 2.9% | .274 | 4.63 | 21.1% | 11.2% | 310 | +0.40 | 3.33 | 556 | 72 |
| Gregory Infante R 2026 · 4.57 FIP | 28 | SU | 4.57 | 16.9% | 15.7% | 1.7% | .290 | 3.63 | 21.3% | 12.7% | 181 | -0.94 | 2.96 | 230 | 72 |
| Cole McDonald R 2025 · 5.38 FIP | 27 | SU | 5.38 | 21.1% | 13.8% | 4.2% | .281 | — | — | — | — | — | 2.72 | 153 | 72 |
Career Comps
Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 327 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).
| Player | Yrs | IP/yr | K% | BB% | HR/9 | ERA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION | 3 | 61 | 22.0% | 14.3% | 1.11 | 4.95 |
| Daniel Bard ('23) | 4 | 50 | 25.1% | 13.5% | 0.81 | 3.82 |
| Amir Garrett ('23) | 6 | 51 | 25.8% | 13.4% | 1.50 | 5.10 |
| Fernando Rodney ('19) | 5 | 59 | 24.6% | 11.8% | 0.88 | 4.21 |
| John Gant ('21) | 4 | 85 | 20.1% | 12.5% | 0.79 | 3.91 |
| Greg Holland ('21) | 6 | 45 | 25.4% | 12.3% | 0.87 | 4.03 |
| Miguel Castro ('23) | 7 | 59 | 20.8% | 12.0% | 1.04 | 3.99 |