Jhony Brito

P El Paso Chihuahuas

Age 29 RHP 6'2" / 210 lbs AAA

Overview

AAARP40-MAN

Year	Age	Lvl / Team	G	GS	IP	ERA	FIP	K%	BB%	WAR	MLE rates
2023	25	MIX2 levels	32	20	127	4.62	4.74	19.6%	8.2%	1.0	K 18.7% · BB 7.9% · FIP 4.75
2024	26	MIX2 levels	32	6	58	5.31	4.07	14.7%	7.0%	0.3	K 14.2% · BB 6.6% · FIP 4.00
2026	28	MIX4 levels	24	18	79	2.97	4.08	16.3%	5.3%	1.2	K 12.2% · BB 5.6% · FIP 4.21
2027PROJ	29	MLBSD	26	26	155	4.55	4.64	14.7%	6.1%	1.4
2028PROJ95% MLB	30	MLBSD	18	18	108	4.73	4.85	14.0%	6.4%	0.7
2029PROJ95% MLB	31	MLBSD	14	14	87	4.94	5.08	13.3%	6.8%	0.3

Last 3 seasons WAR 2.5 · Next 3 projected WAR 2.4Projected rows: MLB playing time only, park and league context applied.

Contract

No contract data on file.

Skills · percentileStatcast 2024

FB Velo77

xwOBA vs47

K%10

CompsJuan Omar Espinoza (age 31) · Jorge Martinez (age 31) · Zach Stewart (age 28)

2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONrates below = full-season projection

showingPROJ

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 116108vR 100

ERA4.55

FIP4.64

K%14.7%

BB%6.1%

K-BB%8.6%

Proj IP157

Value2027 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 157 IP

Grades · Statcast · Contract

Scouting Grades

STUF3535

CTRL6565

CMD4040

K†3030

Statcast Percentiles

FB Velo

p7796.4

Whiff%

p1019.0%

p1015.7%

xwOBA vs

p470.315

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to the standard WAR scale.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2027 so far)
2016	18	ROK MLE	GCL Yankees East	13	13	55	243	48	9	4	100%	4.2	13.4%	4.6%	8.8%	2.3%	6.38	3.82	—
2016	18	ROK RAW	GCL Yankees East	13	13	55	243	48	9	4	100%	4.2	19.8%	3.7%	16.0%	1.6%	6.38	2.79	—
2019	21	A MLE	Charleston RiverDogs	22	9	101	407	79	14	5	41%	4.6	14.4%	4.1%	10.3%	1.7%	3.58	3.36	—
2019	21	A RAW	Charleston RiverDogs	22	9	101	407	79	14	5	41%	4.6	19.4%	3.4%	16.0%	1.2%	3.58	2.59	—
2021	23	MIX MLE	2 levels	22	22	117	490	118	21	10	100%	5.3	18.9%	4.8%	14.1%	2.4%	3.55	3.42	—
2021	23	MIX RAW	2 levels	22	22	117	490	118	21	10	100%	5.3	24.1%	4.3%	19.8%	2.0%	3.55	2.73	—
2022	24	MIX MLE	2 levels	26	23	113	454	91	35	9	88%	4.3	17.1%	8.2%	8.8%	2.2%	2.96	3.92	—
2022	24	MIX RAW	2 levels	26	23	113	454	91	35	9	88%	4.3	20.0%	7.7%	12.3%	2.0%	2.96	3.46	—
2023	25	MIX MLE	2 levels	32	20	127	537	105	44	22	62%	4.0	18.7%	7.9%	10.8%	4.1%	4.62	4.75	+1.0
2023	25	MIX RAW	2 levels	32	20	127	537	105	44	22	62%	4.0	19.6%	8.2%	11.4%	4.1%	4.62	4.74	+1.0
2024	26	MIX MLE	2 levels	32	6	58	258	38	18	6	19%	1.8	14.2%	6.6%	7.6%	2.3%	5.31	4.00	+0.4
2024	26	MIX MLE	2 levels	32	6	58	258	38	18	6	19%	1.8	14.2%	6.6%	7.6%	2.3%	5.31	4.00	+0.4
2024	26	MIX RAW	2 levels	32	6	58	258	38	18	6	19%	1.8	14.7%	7.0%	7.8%	2.3%	5.31	4.07	+0.3
2026	28	MIX MLE	4 levels	24	18	79	319	52	17	10	75%	3.3	12.2%	5.6%	6.6%	2.6%	2.97	4.21	+1.1
2026	28	MIX MLE	4 levels	24	18	79	319	52	17	10	75%	3.3	12.2%	5.6%	6.6%	2.6%	2.97	4.21	+1.1
2026	28	MIX RAW	4 levels	24	18	79	319	52	17	10	75%	3.3	16.3%	5.3%	11.0%	3.1%	2.97	4.08	+1.2
▸ Career totals (raw MLB only — as recorded)
MLB Career	—			56	13	143	592	107	38	20	23%	2.6	18.1%	6.4%	11.7%	3.4%	4.15	4.22	+0.6
▸ 2027 season — projected remainder (no 2027 stats recorded)
2027	29	MLB	SD	26	26	155	654	96	40	19	100%	6.0	14.7%	6.1%	8.6%	3.0%	4.55	4.64	+1.4
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2028	30	MLB MLE	SD	19	19	114	480	67	31	15	100%	6.0	14.0%	6.4%	7.6%	3.2%	4.73	4.85	+0.7
2029	31	MLB MLE	SD	15	15	92	387	51	26	13	100%	6.1	13.3%	6.8%	6.5%	3.4%	4.94	5.08	+0.3
2028	30	MLB CTX	SD	18	18	108	456	64	29	14	100%	6.0	14.0%	6.4%	7.6%	3.2%	4.73	4.85	+0.7
2029	31	MLB CTX	SD	14	14	87	367	49	25	12	100%	6.2	13.3%	6.8%	6.5%	3.4%	4.94	5.08	+0.3
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		89	46	338	1415	220	92	47	52%	3.8	15.5%	6.5%	9.0%	3.3%	4.54	4.43	+3.8
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		52	27	200	837	130	54	28	51%	3.8	15.5%	6.5%	9.0%	3.3%	4.54	4.43	+2.3
Career	—	MLE		171	111	648	2708	437	166	70	65%	3.8	16.1%	6.1%	10.0%	2.6%	3.99	3.94	+3.0
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		53	34	200	836	135	51	22	65%	3.8	16.1%	6.1%	10.0%	2.6%	3.99	3.94	+1.7

How the minor-league lines were translated

One row per minor-league stint. Open a row to see each step: the raw rate, the park adjustment, the league/level factor, the age adjustment (hitters) and the resulting MLE rate. Factors are the same ones listed on the MLE Factors page.

2026 AAAEl Paso Chihuahuas · 45 IPFIP 3.93 → 4.19 (+0.26)K% 15.4% → 13.3%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	15.43%	—	×0.860	13.27%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	5.32%	—	×0.900	4.79%
HR / BF /BF	2.66%	÷1.000	×1.100	2.93%

Factors used: pitcher AAA level factors (Triple-A 2023+ robo-zone set: walks improve on promotion) — K ×0.86, BB ×0.90, HR ×1.10. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 100).

Result: FIP 3.93 → 4.19, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2026 AASan Antonio Missions · 18 IPFIP 3.82 → 4.25 (+0.43)K% 11.4% → 9.3%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	11.43%	—	×0.810	9.26%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	7.14%	—	×1.100	7.86%
HR / BF /BF	1.43%	÷1.000	×1.200	1.71%

Factors used: pitcher AA level factors — K ×0.81, BB ×1.10, HR ×1.20. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 100).

Result: FIP 3.82 → 4.25, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2026 ROKACL Padres · 6 IPFIP 4.89 → 7.63 (+2.75)K% 34.6% → 23.5%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	34.62%	—	×0.680	23.54%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	3.85%	—	×1.250	4.81%
HR / BF /BF	7.69%	÷1.000	×1.400	10.77%

Factors used: pitcher ROK level factors — K ×0.68, BB ×1.25, HR ×1.40. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 100).

Result: FIP 4.89 → 7.63, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2024 AAAEl Paso Chihuahuas · 14 IPFIP 5.12 → 5.15 (+0.02)K% 12.3% → 10.6%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	12.33%	—	×0.860	10.60%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	12.33%	—	×0.900	11.10%
HR / BF /BF	2.74%	÷1.078	×1.100	2.80%

Result: FIP 5.12 → 5.15, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2023 AAAScranton/Wilkes-Barre RailRiders · 36 IPFIP 5.30 → 5.63 (+0.33)K% 20.0% → 17.2%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	20.00%	—	×0.860	17.20%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	9.70%	—	×0.900	8.73%
HR / BF /BF	4.85%	÷1.017	×1.100	5.24%

Result: FIP 5.30 → 5.63, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2022 AAAScranton/Wilkes-Barre RailRiders · 71 IPFIP 3.56 → 3.89 (+0.33)K% 18.5% → 16.3%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	18.47%	—	×0.880	16.25%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	8.36%	—	×1.050	8.78%
HR / BF /BF	1.74%	÷1.006	×1.100	1.90%

Factors used: pitcher AAA level factors — K ×0.88, BB ×1.05, HR ×1.10. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 101).

Result: FIP 3.56 → 3.89, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2022 AASomerset Patriots · 42 IPFIP 3.33 → 3.99 (+0.66)K% 22.8% → 18.4%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	22.75%	—	×0.810	18.43%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	6.59%	—	×1.100	7.25%
HR / BF /BF	2.40%	÷1.032	×1.200	2.79%

Result: FIP 3.33 → 3.99, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2021 A+Hudson Valley Renegades · 70 IPFIP 1.88 → 2.54 (+0.66)K% 25.1% → 19.3%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	25.09%	—	×0.770	19.32%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	4.12%	—	×1.150	4.74%
HR / BF /BF	0.69%	÷1.000	×1.250	0.86%

Factors used: pitcher A+ level factors — K ×0.77, BB ×1.15, HR ×1.25. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 100).

Result: FIP 1.88 → 2.54, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Jhony Brito (OGILVIE)	—	—	4.64	14.7%	6.1%	3.0%	—	4.95	13.7%	7.1%	205	+0.31	—	—	—
Juan Omar Espinoza R 2015 · 4.81 FIP	31	SP-	4.81	8.9%	6.6%	3.0%	.346	4.84	8.4%	-0.8%	52	+0.03	4.81	104	71
Jorge Martinez R 2016 · 3.53 FIP	31	SP-	3.53	12.9%	5.3%	1.6%	.266	3.71	16.5%	11.5%	154	+0.18	3.53	214	70
Zach Stewart R 2015 · 4.43 FIP	28	SP-	4.43	14.4%	8.3%	2.7%	.322	5.17	11.7%	2.1%	51	+0.74	4.27	194	70
Zack Segovia R 2015 · 4.78 FIP	32	SP	4.78	15.0%	8.3%	3.4%	.314	3.33	20.2%	14.3%	39	-1.45	3.33	144	68
Travis Smith R 2002 · 5.28 FIP	29	SP	5.28	13.1%	8.2%	4.1%	.324	5.71	15.0%	9.0%	51	+0.43	3.67	105	68
Jon Leicester R 2007 · 4.44 FIP	28	SP-	4.44	11.0%	9.0%	2.1%	.292	—	—	—	—	—	3.76	113	66
Miguel Ruiz R 2015 · 5.77 FIP	29	SP-	5.77	8.8%	8.0%	4.4%	.346	5.60	10.6%	-0.4%	53	-0.17	5.60	117	64
Daulton Jefferies R 2024 · 5.05 FIP	28	SP-	5.05	15.0%	7.1%	4.2%	.316	—	—	—	—	—	3.23	265	63
Ramon Delgado R 2016 · 4.60 FIP	29	SW	4.60	13.8%	5.9%	3.5%	.332	4.31	11.2%	7.2%	74	-0.29	4.31	135	63
Beau Sulser R 2023 · 5.21 FIP	29	SP-	5.21	13.3%	5.3%	4.7%	.285	6.15	16.3%	10.0%	68	+0.94	2.61	463	62
Gabriel Arias R 2019 · 4.11 FIP	29	SP-	4.11	13.9%	6.8%	2.4%	.300	—	—	—	—	—	4.11	195	62
Fabio Castillo R 2017 · 3.98 FIP	28	SP-	3.98	20.9%	8.8%	2.8%	.291	—	—	—	—	—	3.13	195	62
Ariel Prieto R 2000 · 4.24 FIP	30	SP-	4.24	12.8%	8.8%	2.0%	.345	—	—	—	—	—	4.05	340	61
Carlos Frías R 2019 · 4.42 FIP	29	SP-	4.42	16.9%	11.1%	2.4%	.369	—	—	—	—	—	3.40	236	61
Edgar Alberto Garcia R 2017 · 4.01 FIP	29	SP-	4.01	17.3%	10.9%	1.8%	.305	—	—	—	—	—	4.01	272	61
Bradin Hagens R 2018 · 4.92 FIP	29	SP-	4.92	14.9%	9.9%	3.3%	.341	5.46	13.2%	0.6%	66	+0.54	3.79	254	61
Reinier Roibal R 2019 · 4.91 FIP	30	SP	4.91	17.5%	11.8%	3.3%	.426	—	—	—	—	—	3.11	133	60
Orlando Rodriguez R 2023 · 4.67 FIP	27	SW	4.67	13.7%	10.6%	2.5%	.252	—	—	—	—	—	4.40	119	60
Seth Greisinger R 2004 · 5.38 FIP	29	SP-	5.38	15.5%	6.0%	5.1%	.327	—	—	—	—	—	4.53	219	60
David Griffin R 2023 · 5.83 FIP	27	SP-	5.83	14.2%	9.2%	5.0%	.306	—	—	—	—	—	4.43	239	60

Career Comps

Completed MLB careers (no pro action in 2+ yrs) whose totals — actual + projected — most resemble this player's. Pool: 927 starter careers (497 from 1990-2025 + 430 historical, 1901-2023), also matched on career-to-date at the same age. * Historical (Lahman) careers: rates era-adjusted to 2001-24 league levels; WAR is an OGILVIE proxy.

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	2.5	101	15.2%	6.4%	1.24	4.55
Rod Nichols ('88-'95, 1 WAR*)	2.1	103	16.1%*	6.6%*	1.21*	4.64*
Brett Oberholtzer ('16)	1.6	81	15.6%	6.2%	1.14	4.36
Brad Bergesen ('12)	2.1	106	12.2%	6.6%	1.17	4.61
Fernando Arroyo ('75-'82, 3 WAR*)	2.7	107	11.8%*	6.9%*	1.26*	4.53*
Gary Serum ('77-'79, 1 WAR*)	1.4	90	17.8%*	6.3%*	1.29*	5.01*
Jerome Williams ('16)	5.1	114	14.7%	7.9%	1.14	4.59