Kyle Muller

P Oakland Athletics

Age 29 LHP 6'7" / 250 lbs MLB peak 0.1 · 2027

Overview

MLBRP

Year	Age	Lvl / Team	G	GS	IP	ERA	FIP	K%	BB%	WAR	MLE rates
2022	24	MIX2 levels	26	26	147	3.80	3.17	28.5%	8.0%	4.1	K 25.3% · BB 8.3% · FIP 3.64
2023	25	MIX2 levels	34	26	139	7.45	5.82	15.9%	11.3%	-0.6	K 14.8% · BB 10.7% · FIP 5.72
2024	26	MIX3 levels	29	5	78	4.29	4.27	18.0%	5.3%	0.3	K 16.9% · BB 4.6% · FIP 4.59
2025	27	No MLB games played
2026	28	No MLB games played
2027PROJ	29	MLBOAK	29	29	175	4.39	4.46	21.8%	8.2%	1.9
2028PROJ95% MLB	30	MLBOAK	22	22	129	4.56	4.67	21.1%	8.5%	1.1
2029PROJ95% MLB	31	MLBOAK	18	18	108	4.76	4.90	20.3%	8.8%	0.6

Last 3 seasons WAR 3.7 · Next 3 projected WAR 3.6Projected rows: MLB playing time only, park and league context applied.

Contract

No contract data on file.

Skills · percentileStatcast 2024

xwOBA vs50

FB Velo23

K%20

CompsJames Gillheeney (age 27) · Danny Wirchansky (age 27) · Chris Narveson (age 29)

2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONrates below = full-season projection

showingPROJ

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 97105vR 114

ERA4.39

FIP4.46

K%21.8%

BB%8.2%

K-BB%13.6%

Proj IP175

Value2027 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 175 IP

Statcast · Contract

Statcast Percentiles

FB Velo

p2392.6

Whiff%

p3222.7%

p2017.8%

xwOBA vs

p500.312

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to the standard WAR scale.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2027 so far)
2016	18	ROK MLE	GCL Braves	10	9	28	110	38	12	0	90%	2.8	23.5%	13.6%	9.9%	0.0%	0.65	2.84	—
2016	18	ROK RAW	GCL Braves	10	9	28	110	38	12	0	90%	2.8	34.5%	10.9%	23.6%	0.0%	0.65	1.65	—
2017	19	ROK MLE	Danville Braves	11	11	48	207	49	18	5	100%	4.3	16.1%	10.9%	5.2%	3.4%	4.15	4.97	—
2017	19	ROK RAW	Danville Braves	11	11	48	207	49	18	5	100%	4.3	23.7%	8.7%	15.0%	2.4%	4.15	3.54	—
2018	20	MIX MLE	3 levels	25	25	140	572	129	46	8	100%	5.6	17.4%	9.2%	8.2%	1.9%	3.03	3.85	—
2018	20	MIX RAW	3 levels	25	25	140	572	129	46	8	100%	5.6	22.6%	8.0%	14.5%	1.4%	3.03	2.99	—
2019	21	AA MLE	Mississippi Braves	22	22	112	468	120	68	5	100%	5.1	20.8%	16.0%	4.8%	1.4%	3.14	4.15	—
2019	21	AA RAW	Mississippi Braves	22	22	112	468	120	68	5	100%	5.1	25.6%	14.5%	11.1%	1.1%	3.14	3.36	—
2021	23	MIX MLE	2 levels	26	25	116	500	130	61	11	96%	4.5	23.8%	12.6%	11.1%	2.4%	3.64	4.00	+1.9
2021	23	MIX RAW	2 levels	26	25	116	500	130	61	11	96%	4.5	26.0%	12.2%	13.8%	2.2%	3.64	3.67	+2.4
2022	24	MIX MLE	2 levels	26	26	147	601	171	48	16	100%	5.7	25.3%	8.3%	17.0%	2.9%	3.80	3.64	+3.1
2022	24	MIX RAW	2 levels	26	26	147	601	171	48	16	100%	5.7	28.5%	8.0%	20.5%	2.7%	3.80	3.17	+4.1
2023	25	MIX MLE	2 levels	34	26	139	673	107	76	28	76%	4.1	14.8%	10.7%	4.1%	4.6%	7.45	5.72	-0.5
2023	25	MIX RAW	2 levels	34	26	139	673	107	76	28	76%	4.1	15.9%	11.3%	4.6%	4.2%	7.45	5.82	-0.6
2024	26	MIX MLE	3 levels	29	5	78	322	58	17	12	17%	2.7	16.9%	4.6%	12.3%	4.3%	4.29	4.59	-0.0
2024	26	MIX MLE	3 levels	29	5	78	322	58	17	12	17%	2.7	16.9%	4.6%	12.3%	4.3%	4.29	4.59	-0.0
2024	26	MIX RAW	3 levels	29	5	78	322	58	17	12	17%	2.7	18.0%	5.3%	12.7%	3.7%	4.29	4.27	+0.3
▸ Career totals (raw MLB only — as recorded)
MLB Career	—			54	24	175	788	141	72	26	44%	3.2	17.9%	9.1%	8.8%	3.3%	5.90	4.65	-0.2
▸ 2027 season — projected remainder (no 2027 stats recorded)
2027	29	MLB	OAK	29	29	175	739	161	60	24	100%	6.0	21.8%	8.2%	13.6%	3.3%	4.39	4.46	+1.9
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2028	30	MLB MLE	OAK	23	23	136	575	121	49	20	100%	5.9	21.1%	8.5%	12.6%	3.5%	4.56	4.67	+1.1
2029	31	MLB MLE	OAK	19	19	113	479	97	42	18	100%	6.0	20.3%	8.8%	11.5%	3.7%	4.76	4.90	+0.6
2028	30	MLB CTX	OAK	22	22	129	545	115	46	19	100%	5.9	21.1%	8.5%	12.6%	3.5%	4.56	4.67	+1.1
2029	31	MLB CTX	OAK	18	18	108	456	93	40	17	100%	6.0	20.3%	8.8%	11.5%	3.7%	4.76	4.90	+0.6
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		94	64	412	1789	348	158	62	68%	4.4	19.5%	8.8%	10.6%	3.4%	5.18	4.46	+4.5
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		45	31	200	868	169	77	30	68%	4.4	19.5%	8.8%	10.6%	3.4%	5.18	4.46	+2.2
Career	—	MLE		183	149	807	3453	681	365	99	81%	4.4	19.7%	10.6%	9.2%	2.9%	4.14	4.35	+3.3
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		45	37	200	856	169	91	25	81%	4.4	19.7%	10.6%	9.2%	2.9%	4.14	4.35	+1.6

How the minor-league lines were translated

One row per minor-league stint. Open a row to see each step: the raw rate, the park adjustment, the league/level factor, the age adjustment (hitters) and the resulting MLE rate. Factors are the same ones listed on the MLE Factors page.

2024 AAALas Vegas Aviators · 25 IPFIP 5.63 → 6.04 (+0.42)K% 17.8% → 15.3%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	17.76%	—	×0.860	15.27%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	7.48%	—	×0.900	6.73%
HR / BF /BF	5.61%	÷1.001	×1.100	6.16%

Factors used: pitcher AAA level factors (Triple-A 2023+ robo-zone set: walks improve on promotion) — K ×0.86, BB ×0.90, HR ×1.10. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 100).

Result: FIP 5.63 → 6.04, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2023 AAALas Vegas Aviators · 62 IPFIP 5.46 → 5.73 (+0.27)K% 16.9% → 14.6%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	16.94%	—	×0.860	14.57%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	12.62%	—	×0.900	11.36%
HR / BF /BF	3.99%	÷0.996	×1.100	4.40%

Result: FIP 5.46 → 5.73, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2022 AAAGwinnett Stripers · 135 IPFIP 2.98 → 3.49 (+0.52)K% 29.3% → 25.8%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	29.34%	—	×0.880	25.82%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	7.38%	—	×1.050	7.75%
HR / BF /BF	2.58%	÷0.981	×1.100	2.90%

Factors used: pitcher AAA level factors — K ×0.88, BB ×1.05, HR ×1.10. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 96).

Result: FIP 2.98 → 3.49, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2021 AAAGwinnett Stripers · 80 IPFIP 3.80 → 4.29 (+0.49)K% 27.0% → 23.7%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	26.96%	—	×0.880	23.72%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	12.17%	—	×1.050	12.78%
HR / BF /BF	2.61%	÷1.001	×1.100	2.87%

Result: FIP 3.80 → 4.29, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2019 AAMississippi Braves · 112 IPFIP 3.36 → 4.15 (+0.79)K% 25.6% → 20.8%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	25.64%	—	×0.810	20.77%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	14.53%	—	×1.100	15.98%
HR / BF /BF	1.07%	÷0.900	×1.200	1.42%

Factors used: pitcher AA level factors — K ×0.81, BB ×1.10, HR ×1.20. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 80).

Result: FIP 3.36 → 4.15, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2018 A+Florida Fire Frogs · 81 IPFIP 2.65 → 3.38 (+0.73)K% 23.4% → 18.1%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	23.44%	—	×0.770	18.05%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	9.50%	—	×1.150	10.92%
HR / BF /BF	0.59%	÷0.974	×1.250	0.76%

Factors used: pitcher A+ level factors — K ×0.77, BB ×1.15, HR ×1.25. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 95).

Result: FIP 2.65 → 3.38, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2018 ARome Braves · 30 IPFIP 3.70 → 4.94 (+1.24)K% 19.3% → 14.3%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	19.33%	—	×0.740	14.30%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	6.72%	—	×1.180	7.93%
HR / BF /BF	2.52%	÷0.880	×1.300	3.72%

Factors used: pitcher A level factors — K ×0.74, BB ×1.18, HR ×1.30. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 76).

Result: FIP 3.70 → 4.94, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2018 AAMississippi Braves · 29 IPFIP 3.21 → 4.13 (+0.92)K% 23.3% → 18.9%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	23.28%	—	×0.810	18.85%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	5.17%	—	×1.100	5.69%
HR / BF /BF	2.59%	÷0.897	×1.200	3.46%

Result: FIP 3.21 → 4.13, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Kyle Muller (OGILVIE)	—	—	—	—	—	3.3%	—	4.77	20.7%	12.1%	250	+0.31	—	—	—
James Gillheeney L 2015 · 3.79 FIP	27	SP-	3.79	14.4%	8.0%	1.6%	.300	—	—	—	—	—	3.79	129	66
Danny Wirchansky L 2024 · 4.47 FIP	27	SP-	4.47	16.2%	7.4%	3.3%	.246	5.88	13.0%	0.2%	68	+1.41	4.47	179	66
Chris Narveson L 2011 · 4.01 FIP	29	SP	4.01	18.0%	9.2%	2.3%	.291	—	—	—	—	—	4.00	625	64
Tomas Solis L 2015 · 4.20 FIP	32	SP	4.20	15.0%	6.2%	2.9%	.264	5.09	12.0%	3.7%	159	+0.89	4.20	327	63
Eric Jokisch L 2018 · 3.78 FIP	29	SP	3.78	16.3%	7.4%	2.1%	.323	—	—	—	—	—	3.78	427	63
Ryan Bollinger L 2018 · 3.56 FIP	27	SP	3.56	17.1%	7.5%	1.7%	.290	—	—	—	—	—	3.56	112	62
Arturo Lopez L 2015 · 4.80 FIP	32	SP	4.80	13.7%	6.2%	3.8%	.301	4.80	10.9%	4.2%	217	+0.00	4.34	445	62
Kaz Ishii L 2003 · 4.51 FIP	29	SP	4.51	21.3%	14.8%	2.4%	.280	5.18	13.2%	0.9%	263	+0.67	4.51	564	61
Yohan Flande L 2015 · 4.68 FIP	29	SP-	4.68	12.9%	5.5%	3.6%	.289	3.27	15.1%	8.4%	172	-1.41	3.18	394	60
Kyle Hald L 2015 · 4.33 FIP	26	SP	4.33	12.1%	7.4%	2.4%	.313	—	—	—	—	—	4.33	124	60
John Anderson L 2016 · 4.23 FIP	27	SP-	4.23	14.3%	8.7%	2.2%	.367	—	—	—	—	—	4.12	235	59
Irwin Delgado L 2017 · 3.54 FIP	28	SP	3.54	18.7%	10.2%	1.3%	.345	4.73	15.6%	6.1%	89	+1.19	3.52	383	59
Matt Crouse L 2017 · 4.64 FIP	27	SP	4.64	12.0%	7.4%	2.9%	.308	—	—	—	—	—	3.99	342	59
Paul Oseguera L 2015 · 3.83 FIP	31	SP	3.83	17.6%	8.5%	2.1%	.297	5.62	5.6%	-6.9%	28	+1.79	3.83	162	59
Matt Tomshaw L 2018 · 3.51 FIP	29	SP	3.51	14.6%	4.7%	1.9%	.374	4.88	20.6%	16.0%	164	+1.37	3.04	681	59
Darrell May L 2002 · 5.40 FIP	30	SP-	5.40	16.4%	8.1%	4.8%	.284	5.02	13.5%	7.2%	462	-0.38	4.24	657	58
Alejandro Astorga L 2016 · 3.72 FIP	29	SP	3.72	15.0%	9.1%	1.4%	.290	4.01	14.4%	6.2%	116	+0.29	3.72	311	58
Kramer Sneed L 2016 · 4.21 FIP	27	SP	4.21	13.2%	8.2%	2.2%	.265	—	—	—	—	—	4.21	116	58
Carlos Teller L 2016 · 4.86 FIP	29	SP-	4.86	14.3%	10.7%	2.9%	.297	4.74	12.6%	1.1%	148	-0.12	3.75	333	58
Christian Friedrich L 2016 · 3.96 FIP	29	SP	3.96	17.6%	8.8%	2.2%	.292	—	—	—	—	—	3.39	297	58

Career Comps

Completed MLB careers (no pro action in 2+ yrs) whose totals — actual + projected — most resemble this player's. Pool: 927 starter careers (497 from 1990-2025 + 430 historical, 1901-2023), also matched on career-to-date at the same age. * Historical (Lahman) careers: rates era-adjusted to 2001-24 league levels; WAR is an OGILVIE proxy.

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	3.0	100	20.2%	8.8%	1.31	4.94
Drew Hutchison ('22)	2.9	84	19.2%	8.2%	1.29	4.89
Jackie Brown ('70-'77, 1 WAR*)	4.5	128	19.7%*	8.9%*	1.21*	4.93*
Rubby De La Rosa ('17)	2.1	105	19.6%	8.6%	1.32	4.49
Mike Bolsinger ('17)	1.2	58	20.5%	9.6%	1.33	4.92
Allen Ripley ('78-'82, 1 WAR*)	2.3	93	17.2%*	7.5%*	1.41*	5.06*
Chris Knapp ('75-'80, -1 WAR*)	3.0	121	21.3%*	9.3%*	1.41*	5.48*