Alek Manoah

P Salt Lake Bees

Age 29 RHP 6'6" / 285 lbs AAA

Overview

AAARP

Year	Age	Lvl / Team	G	GS	IP	ERA	FIP	K%	BB%	WAR	MLE rates
2024	26	MIX3 levels	10	10	44	5.93	4.90	27.0%	9.5%	0.0	K 26.3% · BB 7.8% · FIP 4.68
2025	27	MIX4 levels	10	10	39	3.96	5.09	19.6%	12.8%	—	K 17.6% · BB 11.0% · FIP 5.92
2026	28	MIX3 levels	14	11	42	14.46	9.22	13.6%	21.4%	-2.0	K 12.3% · BB 20.8% · FIP 8.34
2027PROJ	29	MLBLAA	9	9	55	5.51	6.33	16.5%	15.8%	-0.8
2028PROJ	30	MLBLAA	9	9	52	6.12	6.53	15.8%	16.1%	-0.9
2029PROJ	31	MLBLAA	8	8	48	6.51	6.77	15.1%	16.4%	-1.0

Last 3 seasons WAR -2.0 · Next 3 projected WAR -2.7Projected rows: MLB playing time only, park and league context applied.

Contract

No contract data on file.

Skills · percentileStatcast 2024

Whiff%69

K%66

xwOBA vs46

FB Velo33

CompsWalter Silva (age 32) · Matt Palmer (age 29) · Erik Hiljus (age 29)

2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONrates below = full-season projection

showingPROJ

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 153145vR 137

ERA5.51

FIP6.33

K%16.5%

BB%15.8%

K-BB%0.8%

Proj IP55

Value2027 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 55 IP

Grades · Statcast · Arsenal · Contract

Scouting Grades

STUF5050

CTRL4545

CMD5050

K†4040

Statcast Percentiles

FB Velo

p3393.3

Whiff%

p6928.2%

p6625.2%

xwOBA vs

p460.316

FB+1.8 (55%)

SI (27%)

CH-0.7 (14%)

SL-1.6 (30%)

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2027 so far)
2021	23	MIX MLE	2 levels	23	23	130	525	154	43	13	100%	5.6	28.7%	8.2%	20.5%	2.5%	2.85	3.08	+3.0
2021	23	MIX RAW	2 levels	23	23	130	525	154	43	13	100%	5.6	29.3%	8.2%	21.1%	2.5%	2.85	3.02	+3.1
2022	24	MLB MLE	Toronto Blue Jays	31	31	197	786	180	51	16	100%	6.3	22.9%	6.5%	16.4%	2.0%	2.24	3.11	+4.4
2022	24	MLB RAW	Toronto Blue Jays	31	31	197	786	180	51	16	100%	6.3	22.9%	6.5%	16.4%	2.0%	2.24	3.11	+4.4
2023	25	MIX MLE	3 levels	21	21	95	455	92	63	17	100%	4.5	19.0%	14.0%	5.1%	3.6%	6.54	5.25	-0.4
2023	25	MIX RAW	3 levels	21	21	95	455	92	63	17	100%	4.5	20.2%	13.8%	6.4%	3.7%	6.54	5.48	-0.6
2024	26	MIX MLE	3 levels	10	10	44	200	54	19	10	100%	4.4	26.3%	7.8%	18.5%	5.1%	5.93	4.68	+0.1
2024	26	MIX MLE	3 levels	10	10	44	200	54	19	10	100%	4.4	26.3%	7.8%	18.5%	5.1%	5.93	4.68	+0.1
2024	26	MIX RAW	3 levels	10	10	44	200	54	19	10	100%	4.4	27.0%	9.5%	17.5%	5.0%	5.93	4.90	+0.0
2025	27	MIX MLE	4 levels	10	10	39	179	35	23	6	100%	3.9	17.6%	11.0%	6.5%	5.3%	3.96	5.92	—
2025	27	MIX MLE	4 levels	10	10	39	179	35	23	6	100%	3.9	17.6%	11.0%	6.5%	5.3%	3.96	5.92	—
2025	27	MIX RAW	4 levels	10	10	39	179	35	23	6	100%	3.9	19.6%	12.8%	6.7%	3.4%	3.96	5.09	—
2026	28	MIX MLE	3 levels	14	11	42	243	33	52	13	79%	3.0	12.3%	20.8%	-8.5%	6.6%	14.46	8.34	-1.6
2026	28	MIX MLE	3 levels	14	11	42	243	33	52	13	79%	3.0	12.3%	20.8%	-8.5%	6.6%	14.46	8.34	-1.6
2026	28	MIX RAW	3 levels	14	11	42	243	33	52	13	79%	3.0	13.6%	21.4%	-7.8%	5.3%	14.46	9.22	-2.0
▸ Career totals (raw MLB only — as recorded)
MLB Career	—			78	75	427	1802	417	165	49	96%	5.5	23.1%	9.2%	14.0%	2.7%	3.45	3.80	+5.7
▸ 2027 season — projected remainder (no 2027 stats recorded)
2027	29	MLB	LAA	9	9	55	232	38	37	10	100%	6.1	16.5%	15.8%	0.8%	4.1%	5.51	6.33	-0.8
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2028	30	MLB MLE	LAA	9	9	52	217	34	35	9	100%	5.7	15.8%	16.1%	-0.2%	4.3%	6.12	6.53	-0.9
2029	31	MLB MLE	LAA	8	8	48	203	31	33	9	100%	6.0	15.1%	16.4%	-1.3%	4.5%	6.51	6.77	-1.0
2030	32	MLB MLE	LAA	7	7	44	187	27	32	9	100%	6.3	14.3%	16.8%	-2.5%	4.8%	6.82	7.02	-1.0
2028	30	MLB CTX	LAA	9	9	52	220	35	35	9	100%	5.8	15.8%	16.1%	-0.2%	4.3%	6.12	6.53	-0.9
2029	31	MLB CTX	LAA	8	8	48	203	31	33	9	100%	6.0	15.1%	16.4%	-1.3%	4.5%	6.51	6.77	-1.0
2030	32	MLB CTX	LAA	7	7	44	186	27	31	9	100%	6.3	14.3%	16.8%	-2.5%	4.8%	6.82	7.02	-1.0
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		102	99	571	2410	509	265	76	97%	5.6	21.1%	11.0%	10.1%	3.2%	4.21	4.45	+3.0
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		36	35	200	844	178	93	27	97%	5.6	21.1%	11.0%	10.1%	3.2%	4.21	4.45	+1.0
Career	—	MLE		109	106	546	2388	531	243	81	97%	5.0	22.2%	10.2%	12.0%	3.4%	4.50	4.38	+2.4
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		40	39	200	874	194	89	30	97%	5.0	22.2%	10.2%	12.0%	3.4%	4.50	4.38	+0.8

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Alek Manoah (OGILVIE)	—	—	6.33	16.5%	15.8%	4.1%	—	6.76	15.1%	-1.3%	144	+0.43	—	—	—
Walter Silva R 2009 · 5.72 FIP	32	SP	5.72	9.1%	12.4%	3.3%	.330	—	—	—	—	—	3.67	453	74
Matt Palmer R 2008 · 5.81 FIP	29	SP	5.81	4.5%	17.9%	1.5%	.314	4.33	12.8%	2.4%	171	-1.48	2.98	183	70
Erik Hiljus R 2002 · 6.07 FIP	29	SP	6.07	14.1%	9.7%	5.3%	.281	—	—	—	—	—	3.35	112	69
Travis Smith R 2002 · 5.28 FIP	29	SP	5.28	13.1%	8.2%	4.1%	.324	5.71	15.0%	9.0%	51	+0.43	3.67	105	67
Samuel Deduno R 2012 · 5.22 FIP	29	SP	5.22	16.4%	15.3%	2.9%	.260	3.94	16.6%	7.2%	230	-1.28	2.99	327	66
Noah Song R 2023 · 6.06 FIP	26	SP	6.06	12.0%	13.2%	4.2%	.239	3.80	19.8%	8.3%	116	-2.26	3.68	138	64
Mike Hauschild R 2019 · 5.76 FIP	29	SP	5.76	11.5%	14.9%	3.2%	.325	8.79	11.3%	-0.1%	54	+3.03	3.17	579	63
Bryce Morrow R 2016 · 5.44 FIP	28	SP	5.44	10.1%	10.3%	3.4%	.331	—	—	—	—	—	4.31	125	63
Blair Henley R 2024 · 5.41 FIP	27	SP	5.41	17.2%	12.4%	4.0%	.318	—	—	—	—	—	3.97	187	62
Luis Mateo R 2019 · 5.55 FIP	29	SP-	5.55	8.6%	13.4%	2.7%	.303	—	—	—	—	—	3.48	160	60
Miguel Ruiz R 2015 · 5.77 FIP	29	SP-	5.77	8.8%	8.0%	4.4%	.346	5.60	10.6%	-0.4%	53	-0.17	5.60	117	60
Dustin McGowan R 2011 · 5.34 FIP	29	SP-	5.34	20.8%	13.5%	4.2%	.271	4.46	18.5%	9.4%	108	-0.88	3.36	690	59
J.P. France R 2024 · 5.15 FIP	29	SP	5.15	18.2%	9.9%	4.2%	.317	4.82	18.0%	3.9%	71	-0.33	4.04	577	59
Aaron Blair R 2021 · 5.63 FIP	29	SP	5.63	12.0%	13.5%	3.4%	.239	—	—	—	—	—	4.00	464	58
Chris Heston R 2017 · 5.88 FIP	29	SP-	5.88	13.6%	10.0%	4.9%	.368	—	—	—	—	—	3.81	321	58
David Fletcher R 2024 · 5.67 FIP	30	SP-	5.67	7.5%	10.3%	3.5%	.294	—	—	—	—	—	5.67	100	58
Cody Martin R 2018 · 5.88 FIP	28	SP	5.88	16.3%	10.3%	5.2%	.313	—	—	—	—	—	3.56	402	56
John Patterson R 2007 · 5.82 FIP	29	SP	5.82	9.9%	13.8%	3.3%	.306	—	—	—	—	—	2.90	454	55
JD Hammer R 2023 · 5.34 FIP	29	SP	5.34	9.1%	10.5%	3.0%	.333	—	—	—	—	—	1.72	285	54
Seth Etherton R 2005 · 5.78 FIP	28	SP	5.78	13.5%	6.8%	5.4%	.218	—	—	—	—	—	4.85	108	54

Career Comps

Completed MLB careers (no pro action in 2+ yrs) whose totals — actual + projected — most resemble this player's. Pool: 3,327 pitcher careers (1,251 from 1990-2025 + 2,076 historical, 1901-2023), also matched on career-to-date at the same age. * Historical (Lahman) careers: rates era-adjusted to 2001-24 league levels; WAR is an OGILVIE proxy.

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	3.1	78	20.7%	11.5%	1.26	4.33
Bobby Castillo ('77-'85, 5 WAR*)	3.4	86	22.3%*	11.3%*	1.23*	4.27*
Sid Monge ('75-'84, 4 WAR*)	3.8	76	22.1%*	10.8%*	1.34*	3.97*
Larry Sherry ('58-'68, 2 WAR*)	4.0	89	22.8%*	10.9%*	1.09*	4.22*
Junior Guerra ('21)	2.5	85	21.2%	10.9%	1.17	4.06
Jorge Julio ('09)	2.3	58	21.7%	11.3%	1.25	4.43
Miguel Castro ('25)	2.3	67	20.4%	11.7%	1.14	4.24