Nick Lodolo

P Cincinnati Reds

Age 29 LHP 6'6" / 216 lbs MLB Svc 4.0 · Ctrl thru 2028 peak 1.3 · 2027

Overview

MLBSP40-MANArb-2FA 2029

Year	Age	Lvl / Team	G	GS	IP	ERA	FIP	K%	BB%	WAR	MLE rates
2024	26	MIX2 levels	23	23	123	4.83	3.41	25.1%	7.6%	2.2	K 24.7% · BB 7.5% · FIP 3.30
2025	27	MLBCIN	29	28	157	3.33	3.51	24.3%	4.7%	2.7
2026	28	MIX4 levels	25	25	125	4.68	4.72	18.9%	9.1%	0.3	K 17.1% · BB 9.5% · FIP 4.95
2027PROJ	29	MLBCIN	21	21	128	4.44	4.55	20.6%	7.6%	0.5
2028PROJ	30	MLBCIN	20	20	121	4.79	4.91	19.9%	7.9%	0.2
2029PROJ	31	MLBCIN	19	19	113	5.01	5.16	19.2%	8.2%	-0.1

Last 3 seasons WAR 5.2 · Next 3 projected WAR 0.6Projected rows: MLB playing time only, park and league context applied.

ContractESTIMATED

Control thru2028Service4.000First FA2029

2027Arb-2$4M2028Arb-3$5M

Skills · percentileStatcast 2026

FB Velo40

Whiff%23

K%15

xwOBA vs10

CompsChris Narveson (age 29) · Erik Bedard (age 29) · Wandy Rodriguez (age 29)

2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONrates below = full-season projection

showingPROJ

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 115123vR 131

ERA4.44

FIP4.55

K%20.6%

BB%7.6%

K-BB%13.1%

Proj IP128

Value2027 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 128 IP

━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit━ post-control-$3M ctrl surplus

Grades · Statcast · Arsenal · Contract

Scouting Grades

STUF5555

CTRL6060

CMD6060

K†5050

Statcast Percentiles

FB Velo

p4093.8

Whiff%

p2321.5%

p1517.1%

xwOBA vs

p100.380

CH+7.7 (22%)

SL+2.3 (29%)

SI (20%)

CU (29%)

FB-1.4 (50%)

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status Arb-2

MLB Debut 2022

Service 4.000 yrs.days

Team Control Through 2028

First FA Year 2029

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2027	Arb-2	$4M	+0.5	$2M	+$0.0M (cut)
2028	Arb-3	$5M	+0.2	$0.7M	+$0.0M (cut)
Totals		$0.0M		$3M	+$0.0M

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2027 so far)
2019	21	A MLE	Dayton Dragons	2	2	7	28	9	0	0	100%	3.5	32.1%	0.0%	32.1%	0.0%	2.57	0.39	—
2019	21	A RAW	Dayton Dragons	2	2	7	28	9	0	0	100%	3.5	32.1%	0.0%	32.1%	0.0%	2.57	0.53	—
2021	23	MIX MLE	2 levels	13	13	51	201	78	11	3	100%	3.9	31.8%	5.7%	26.1%	0.7%	2.31	1.54	—
2021	23	MIX RAW	2 levels	13	13	51	201	78	11	3	100%	3.9	38.8%	5.5%	33.3%	1.5%	2.31	1.44	—
2022	24	MIX MLE	3 levels	23	23	116	497	149	42	13	100%	5.0	29.7%	8.8%	20.9%	2.7%	3.57	3.21	+2.4
2022	24	MIX RAW	3 levels	23	23	116	497	149	42	13	100%	5.0	30.0%	8.5%	21.5%	2.6%	3.57	3.07	+2.6
2023	25	MIX MLE	4 levels	10	10	42	197	60	14	10	100%	4.2	28.3%	5.4%	22.9%	5.6%	5.62	4.46	+0.2
2023	25	MIX RAW	4 levels	10	10	42	197	60	14	10	100%	4.2	30.5%	7.1%	23.4%	5.1%	5.62	4.35	+0.3
2024	26	MIX MLE	2 levels	23	23	123	526	132	40	14	100%	5.3	24.7%	7.5%	17.2%	2.4%	4.83	3.30	+2.4
2024	26	MIX MLE	2 levels	23	23	123	526	132	40	14	100%	5.3	24.7%	7.5%	17.2%	2.4%	4.83	3.30	+2.4
2024	26	MIX RAW	2 levels	23	23	123	526	132	40	14	100%	5.3	25.1%	7.6%	17.5%	2.7%	4.83	3.41	+2.2
2025	27	MLB MLE	Cincinnati Reds	29	28	157	642	156	30	22	97%	5.4	24.3%	4.7%	19.6%	3.2%	3.33	3.38	+2.9
2025	27	MLB MLE	Cincinnati Reds	29	28	157	642	156	30	22	97%	5.4	24.3%	4.7%	19.6%	3.2%	3.33	3.38	+2.9
2025	27	MLB RAW	Cincinnati Reds	29	28	157	642	156	30	22	97%	5.4	24.3%	4.7%	19.6%	3.4%	3.33	3.51	+2.7
2026	28	MIX MLE	4 levels	25	25	125	549	104	50	20	100%	5.0	17.1%	9.5%	7.6%	3.8%	4.68	4.95	-0.1
2026	28	MIX MLE	4 levels	25	25	125	549	104	50	20	100%	5.0	17.1%	9.5%	7.6%	3.8%	4.68	4.95	-0.1
2026	28	MIX RAW	4 levels	25	25	125	549	104	50	20	100%	5.0	18.9%	9.1%	9.8%	3.6%	4.68	4.72	+0.3
▸ Career totals (raw MLB only — as recorded)
MLB Career	—			97	96	518	2228	539	161	78	99%	5.3	24.2%	7.2%	17.0%	3.5%	4.25	3.91	+6.1
▸ 2027 season — projected remainder (no 2027 stats recorded)
2027	29	MLB	CIN	21	21	128	540	111	41	18	100%	6.1	20.6%	7.6%	13.1%	3.4%	4.44	4.55	+0.5
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2028	30	MLB MLE	CIN	20	20	121	510	102	40	18	100%	6.0	19.9%	7.9%	12.1%	3.6%	4.63	4.75	+0.2
2029	31	MLB MLE	CIN	19	19	113	475	91	39	18	100%	5.9	19.2%	8.2%	10.9%	3.8%	4.84	4.99	-0.1
2030	32	MLB MLE	CIN	17	17	104	440	81	38	18	100%	6.1	18.4%	8.6%	9.7%	4.0%	5.08	5.24	-0.4
2028	30	MLB CTX	CIN	20	20	121	511	102	40	20	100%	6.0	19.9%	7.9%	12.1%	3.9%	4.79	4.91	+0.2
2029	31	MLB CTX	CIN	19	19	113	477	92	39	20	100%	5.9	19.2%	8.2%	10.9%	4.1%	5.01	5.16	-0.1
2030	32	MLB CTX	CIN	17	17	104	439	81	38	19	100%	6.1	18.4%	8.6%	9.7%	4.4%	5.26	5.42	-0.4
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		153	152	856	3653	813	278	136	99%	5.6	22.2%	7.6%	14.6%	3.7%	4.55	4.24	+6.7
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		36	36	200	854	190	65	32	99%	5.6	22.2%	7.6%	14.6%	3.7%	4.55	4.24	+1.6
Career	—	MLE		125	124	620	2640	656	188	80	99%	5.0	24.9%	7.1%	17.8%	3.0%	4.01	3.57	+5.7
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		40	40	200	852	212	61	26	99%	5.0	24.9%	7.1%	17.8%	3.0%	4.01	3.57	+1.3

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Nick Lodolo (OGILVIE)	—	—	4.55	20.6%	7.6%	3.4%	—	4.98	19.2%	11.0%	338	+0.43	—	—	—
Chris Narveson L 2011 · 4.01 FIP	29	SP	4.01	18.0%	9.2%	2.3%	.291	—	—	—	—	—	4.00	625	62
Erik Bedard L 2008 · 4.12 FIP	29	SP	4.12	20.7%	10.7%	2.6%	.266	3.61	24.2%	14.9%	212	-0.51	2.96	1,317	62
Wandy Rodriguez L 2008 · 3.41 FIP	29	SP	3.41	22.3%	7.0%	2.4%	.304	3.61	21.7%	14.2%	592	+0.20	3.37	1,572	61
J.A. Happ L 2012 · 3.94 FIP	29	SP	3.94	23.0%	8.8%	3.0%	.313	3.87	20.1%	12.5%	423	-0.07	3.37	1,890	61
Brandon Claussen L 2006 · 4.89 FIP	27	SP	4.89	16.2%	7.7%	4.0%	.312	—	—	—	—	—	4.41	310	60
Scott Diamond L 2015 · 3.77 FIP	29	SP	3.77	12.6%	4.3%	2.2%	.330	3.46	12.7%	7.9%	166	-0.31	3.46	659	59
Ted Lilly L 2005 · 5.17 FIP	29	SP	5.17	17.0%	10.1%	4.1%	.287	4.24	20.7%	13.1%	593	-0.93	3.61	1,975	59
Kaz Ishii L 2003 · 4.51 FIP	29	SP	4.51	21.3%	14.8%	2.4%	.280	5.18	13.2%	0.9%	263	+0.67	4.51	564	58
Matthew Boyd L 2020 · 5.43 FIP	29	SP	5.43	22.1%	8.1%	5.8%	.299	3.85	22.1%	14.4%	163	-1.58	2.22	1,457	57
Andrew Heaney L 2020 · 3.53 FIP	29	SP	3.53	25.1%	6.5%	3.2%	.297	4.06	27.3%	19.4%	350	+0.53	3.19	1,226	57
Héctor Santiago L 2017 · 5.65 FIP	29	SP	5.65	17.3%	11.6%	4.6%	.259	4.85	21.3%	9.6%	216	-0.80	4.07	1,059	56
Wade Miley L 2016 · 4.07 FIP	29	SP	4.07	19.3%	6.8%	3.2%	.323	4.25	18.8%	9.1%	431	+0.18	3.12	1,805	55
Mark Redman L 2003 · 3.52 FIP	29	SP	3.52	18.8%	7.2%	2.0%	.270	4.58	12.0%	4.4%	536	+1.06	3.52	1,239	55
Wei-Yin Chen L 2014 · 3.63 FIP	29	SP	3.63	17.6%	4.3%	2.7%	.293	4.08	19.2%	14.1%	348	+0.45	3.63	1,065	55
John Lamb L 2018 · 4.64 FIP	28	SP	4.64	22.5%	7.2%	4.6%	.319	—	—	—	—	—	3.38	390	53
Tomas Solis L 2015 · 4.20 FIP	32	SP	4.20	15.0%	6.2%	2.9%	.264	5.09	12.0%	3.7%	159	+0.89	4.20	327	53
Ryan Bollinger L 2018 · 3.56 FIP	27	SP	3.56	17.1%	7.5%	1.7%	.290	—	—	—	—	—	3.56	112	53
Brandon Mann L 2016 · 4.72 FIP	32	SP	4.72	19.4%	7.9%	4.1%	.320	3.97	19.0%	7.6%	128	-0.75	3.59	190	53
Mike Sirotka L 2000 · 4.35 FIP	29	SP	4.35	15.4%	8.2%	2.8%	.294	—	—	—	—	—	3.62	710	53
Arturo Lopez L 2015 · 4.80 FIP	32	SP	4.80	13.7%	6.2%	3.8%	.301	4.80	10.9%	4.2%	217	+0.00	4.34	445	52

Career Comps

Completed MLB careers (no pro action in 2+ yrs) whose totals — actual + projected — most resemble this player's. Pool: 1,853 starter careers (497 from 1990-2025 + 1,356 historical, 1901-2023), also matched on career-to-date at the same age. * Historical (Lahman) careers: rates era-adjusted to 2001-24 league levels; WAR is an OGILVIE proxy.

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	4.9	109	22.0%	7.7%	1.39	4.48
Anthony DeSclafani ('25)	4.9	109	20.9%	6.4%	1.34	4.24
Tyler Anderson ('25)	6.3	126	19.5%	7.8%	1.32	4.30
Mike Foltynewicz ('21)	4.1	138	21.3%	7.8%	1.48	4.52
Jack Scott ('16-'29, 13 WAR*)	9.1	165	22.5%*	7.7%*	1.37*	4.46*
Craig Swan ('73-'84, 10 WAR*)	6.2	124	18.8%*	7.1%*	1.36*	4.46*
Dennis Bennett ('62-'68, 7 WAR*)	4.3	123	19.8%*	8.1%*	1.41*	4.40*