Abdiel Mendoza
P
Biloxi Shuckers
+0.6
WAR
Age 27
RHP
5'10" / 160 lbs
AA
Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2034
peak 0.8 · 2028
ERA4.42
FIP4.42
xFIP—
SIERA—
K%19.6%
BB%8.9%
K-BB%10.8%
IP80
trajectory · 10 yrs
0.8peak
2028
K†4550
Career (MLE) + Projections
Park-neutral MLB-equivalent. MiLB translated via MLE factors. FIP-based WAR vs replacement FIP=5.3 (SP) / 4.95 (RP, <80 IP). FIP+ = runs above league-avg FIP · REP = replacement-level bonus.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | G | GS | IP | BF | K | BB | HR | K% | BB% | HR% | ERA | FIP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2016 | 17 | ROK | DSL Athletics | 17 | 0 | 31 | 127 | 25 | 9 | 0 | 13.4% | 8.9% | 0.0% | 2.32 | 3.09 | +0.7 |
| 2017 | 18 | A | Beloit Snappers | 1 | 1 | 2 | 13 | 2 | 3 | 1 | — | — | — | 15.43 | — | — |
| 2018 | 19 | A | Hickory Crawdads | 1 | 0 | 3 | 11 | 1 | 1 | 0 | — | — | — | 0.00 | — | — |
| 2019 | 20 | A | Hickory Crawdads | 25 | 8 | 86 | 342 | 75 | 25 | 8 | 16.2% | 8.6% | 2.5% | 3.15 | 4.20 | +0.9 |
| 2021 | 22 | A | Down East Wood Ducks | 10 | 7 | 36 | 164 | 40 | 16 | 3 | 18.0% | 11.5% | 2.4% | 4.95 | 4.34 | +0.2 |
| 2022 | 23 | A+ | Vancouver Canadians | 29 | 8 | 81 | 343 | 64 | 39 | 5 | 14.4% | 13.1% | 1.9% | 2.78 | 4.60 | +0.5 |
| 2023 | 24 | AA | New Hampshire Fisher Cats | 26 | 9 | 71 | 300 | 68 | 25 | 6 | 17.7% | 9.5% | 2.2% | 3.42 | 3.99 | +0.9 |
| 2024 | 25 | AAA | Buffalo Bisons | 35 | 9 | 87 | 376 | 73 | 31 | 10 | 15.7% | 8.2% | 2.3% | 3.71 | 4.09 | +1.1 |
| 2025 | 26 | AA | Biloxi Shuckers | 33 | 6 | 81 | 348 | 78 | 28 | 7 | 18.2% | 8.9% | 2.2% | 4.09 | 3.87 | +1.2 |
| ▸ 2026 Season | ||||||||||||||||
| 2026 | 27 | MLB | MIL | 15 | 15 | 80 | 340 | 67 | 30 | 9 | 19.6% | 8.9% | 2.7% | 4.42 | 4.42 | +0.6 |
| ▸ 2027+ Projections — Marcel base + age-bracket aging | ||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 28 | MLB | MIL | 15 | 15 | 81 | 343 | 68 | 30 | 9 | 19.8% | 8.8% | 2.7% | 4.42 | 4.43 | +0.7 |
| 2028 | 29 | MLB | MIL | 14 | 14 | 80 | 336 | 73 | 27 | 9 | 21.9% | 8.0% | 2.8% | 4.27 | 4.19 | +0.8 |
| 2029 | 30 | MLB | MIL | 14 | 14 | 77 | 326 | 71 | 27 | 9 | 21.7% | 8.2% | 2.9% | 4.26 | 4.26 | +0.7 |
| 2030 | 31 | MLB | MIL | 14 | 14 | 74 | 314 | 68 | 26 | 9 | 21.5% | 8.3% | 2.9% | 4.30 | 4.33 | +0.6 |
| 2031 | 32 | MLB | MIL | 13 | 13 | 71 | 301 | 64 | 25 | 9 | 21.2% | 8.5% | 3.0% | 4.37 | 4.42 | +0.5 |
| 2032 | 33 | MLB | MIL | 12 | 12 | 68 | 288 | 60 | 25 | 9 | 20.9% | 8.6% | 3.1% | 4.46 | 4.52 | +0.4 |
| 2033 | 34 | MLB | MIL | 12 | 12 | 65 | 274 | 56 | 24 | 9 | 20.6% | 8.8% | 3.2% | 4.56 | 4.63 | +0.3 |
| 2034 | 35 | MLB | MIL | 11 | 11 | 61 | 258 | 52 | 23 | 9 | 20.2% | 9.1% | 3.3% | 4.67 | 4.75 | +0.1 |
| 2035 | 36 | MLB | MIL | 57 | — | 57 | 241 | 48 | 22 | 8 | 19.8% | 9.3% | 3.4% | 4.80 | 4.88 | +0.0 |
| ▸ Career (all levels · actual + projected) | ||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | 177 | 48 | 479 | 2024 | 330 | 198 | 43 | 16.3% | 9.8% | 2.1% | 3.51 | 4.13 | +6.4 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 74 | 20 | 200 | 845 | 138 | 83 | 18 | 16.3% | 9.8% | 2.1% | 3.51 | 4.13 | +2.7 | ||
Career Path Comps
What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection
| Profile at Match Age | Next 3 Yrs | Career | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Comp | Age | Role | FIP | K% | BB% | HR/BF | BABIP | FIP | K% | K-BB% | IP | ΔFIP | Low FIP | IP | Match |
| Abdiel Mendoza (OGILVIE) | — | — | 4.42 | 19.6% | 8.9% | 2.7% | — | 4.29 | 21.1% | 12.8% | 238 | -0.13 | — | — | — |
| Roberto Gómez R 2026 · 3.98 FIP | 27 | SP- | 3.98 | 18.4% | 8.9% | 2.4% | .315 | 5.24 | 13.8% | 4.9% | 18 | +1.26 | 3.98 | 115 | 94 |
| Justin De Fratus R 2026 · 3.80 FIP | 27 | SP- | 3.80 | 18.8% | 8.3% | 2.3% | .325 | 4.62 | 12.4% | 6.9% | 279 | +0.82 | 3.80 | 500 | 91 |
| Hector Noesí R 2027 · 4.38 FIP | 28 | SP- | 4.38 | 17.6% | 8.1% | 3.2% | .261 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.38 | 250 | 89 |
| Aaron Northcraft R 2025 · 4.23 FIP | 26 | SP- | 4.23 | 16.1% | 8.3% | 2.6% | .309 | 3.32 | 24.1% | 13.4% | 34 | -0.91 | 3.32 | 252 | 86 |
| Lisalverto Bonilla R 2026 · 4.60 FIP | 27 | SP- | 4.60 | 18.2% | 10.5% | 3.1% | .304 | 4.72 | 15.8% | 3.2% | 11 | +0.12 | 3.22 | 221 | 85 |
| Tim Atherton R 2024 · 3.77 FIP | 25 | SP- | 3.77 | 16.2% | 8.6% | 1.7% | .291 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.77 | 101 | 85 |
| David Phelps R 2027 · 3.95 FIP | 28 | SP- | 3.95 | 16.0% | 6.8% | 2.4% | .299 | 2.78 | 29.9% | 20.6% | 142 | -1.17 | 2.49 | 373 | 84 |
| Nestor Molina R 2026 · 4.81 FIP | 27 | SP- | 4.81 | 15.0% | 8.0% | 3.6% | .304 | 3.61 | 17.0% | 10.2% | 289 | -1.20 | 3.03 | 401 | 84 |
| Logan Bawcom R 2026 · 3.73 FIP | 27 | SP- | 3.73 | 16.6% | 9.2% | 1.6% | .251 | 4.86 | 16.0% | 6.7% | 234 | +1.13 | 3.73 | 399 | 84 |
| Jacob Turner R 2026 · 4.43 FIP | 27 | SP- | 4.43 | 14.9% | 8.8% | 2.7% | .297 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.34 | 340 | 84 |
| Josh Roeder R 2025 · 4.72 FIP | 26 | SP- | 4.72 | 15.1% | 8.7% | 3.3% | .264 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.72 | 175 | 83 |
| Jared Mortensen R 2026 · 4.42 FIP | 27 | SP- | 4.42 | 16.9% | 7.8% | 3.2% | .287 | 5.02 | 20.9% | 2.1% | 72 | +0.60 | 4.42 | 200 | 83 |
| Bud Norris R 2029 · 4.64 FIP | 30 | SP- | 4.64 | 18.8% | 8.2% | 3.8% | .327 | 3.81 | 24.2% | 15.5% | 233 | -0.83 | 3.39 | 316 | 83 |
| Alejandro Martinez R 2025 · 4.43 FIP | 26 | SP- | 4.43 | 17.5% | 10.9% | 2.6% | .393 | 4.26 | 9.2% | 3.9% | 53 | -0.17 | 4.26 | 166 | 83 |
| Noah Davis R 2026 · 4.05 FIP | 27 | SP- | 4.05 | 18.9% | 9.5% | 2.4% | .368 | 4.33 | 21.5% | 10.4% | 79 | +0.28 | 2.95 | 492 | 83 |
| Marco Antonio Duarte R 2027 · 4.06 FIP | 28 | SP- | 4.06 | 15.5% | 9.1% | 2.0% | .306 | 4.65 | 9.0% | -1.2% | 38 | +0.59 | 4.06 | 203 | 83 |
| Patrick Johnson R 2026 · 3.89 FIP | 27 | SP- | 3.89 | 17.3% | 6.9% | 2.5% | .286 | 4.13 | 15.7% | 6.4% | 120 | +0.24 | 3.89 | 248 | 82 |
| Zack Wheeler R 2026 · 4.89 FIP | 27 | SP- | 4.89 | 21.0% | 10.1% | 4.2% | .327 | 3.06 | 23.0% | 16.8% | 449 | -1.83 | 2.32 | 1,443 | 81 |
| Jose Pina R 2028 · 4.86 FIP | 29 | SP- | 4.86 | 16.9% | 9.2% | 3.7% | .231 | 3.67 | 13.6% | 6.9% | 246 | -1.19 | 3.65 | 424 | 81 |
| Dallas Beeler R 2025 · 3.45 FIP | 26 | SP- | 3.45 | 15.1% | 7.6% | 1.2% | .301 | 7.35 | 10.0% | 1.5% | 11 | +3.90 | 3.45 | 122 | 81 |
Contract
ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)
Status MiLB
MLB Debut 2029
Service 0 yrs (est)
Team Control Through 2034
First FA Year 2035
| Year | Status | Salary | Proj WAR | Value | Surplus |
| 2026 | MiLB | still in minors · estimated debut 2029 | |||
| 2027 | MiLB | still in minors · estimated debut 2029 | |||
| 2028 | MiLB | still in minors · estimated debut 2029 | |||
| 2029 | Arb-1 | $0.8M | +0.7 | $3M | +$2M |
| 2030 | Arb-2 | $0.9M | +0.6 | $3M | +$2M |
| 2031 | Arb-3 | $0.9M | +0.5 | $2M | +$1M |
| 2032 | Ext / FA-deal | $0.6M | +0.4 | $2M | +$1M |
| 2033 | Ext / FA-deal | $0.7M | +0.3 | $1M | +$0.8M |
| 2034 | Ext / FA-deal | $0.6M | +0.1 | $0.5M | -$0.1M |
| Totals | $5M | $12M | +$7M | ||