Abdiel Mendoza — OGILVIE

Abdiel Mendoza P Arkansas Travelers

Age 27 RHP 5'10" / 160 lbs AA

2026 ROS PROJECTION34 act + 6 ip · rates below = ROS only

showingROS

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 122114vR 105

ERA4.66

FIP4.66

K%17.0%

BB%9.2%

K-BB%7.9%

ROS IP6

Value2026 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 40 IP

Grades · Contract

Scouting Grades

STUF4545

CTRL5050

CMD4545

K†4040

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2026 so far)
2016	17	ROK MLE	DSL Athletics	17	0	31	127	25	9	0	0%	1.8	13.4%	8.9%	4.5%	0.0%	2.32	3.09	—
2016	17	ROK RAW	DSL Athletics	17	0	31	127	25	9	0	0%	1.8	19.7%	7.1%	12.6%	0.0%	2.32	2.36	—
2017	18	A MLE	Beloit Snappers	1	1	2	13	2	3	1	100%	2.3	15.4%	23.1%	-7.7%	7.7%	15.43	8.95	—
2017	18	A RAW	Beloit Snappers	1	1	2	13	2	3	1	100%	2.3	15.4%	23.1%	-7.7%	7.7%	15.43	10.81	—
2018	19	A MLE	Hickory Crawdads	1	0	3	11	1	1	0	0%	3.0	9.1%	9.1%	0.0%	0.0%	0.00	3.48	—
2018	19	A RAW	Hickory Crawdads	1	0	3	11	1	1	0	0%	3.0	9.1%	9.1%	0.0%	0.0%	0.00	3.43	—
2019	20	A MLE	Hickory Crawdads	25	8	86	342	75	25	8	32%	3.4	16.2%	8.6%	7.6%	2.6%	3.15	4.23	—
2019	20	A RAW	Hickory Crawdads	25	8	86	342	75	25	8	32%	3.4	21.9%	7.3%	14.6%	2.3%	3.15	3.44	—
2021	22	A MLE	Down East Wood Ducks	10	7	36	164	40	16	3	70%	3.6	18.0%	11.5%	6.5%	2.4%	4.95	4.35	—
2021	22	A RAW	Down East Wood Ducks	10	7	36	164	40	16	3	70%	3.6	24.4%	9.8%	14.6%	1.8%	4.95	3.29	—
2022	23	A+ MLE	Vancouver Canadians	29	8	81	343	64	39	5	28%	2.8	14.4%	13.1%	1.3%	1.9%	2.78	4.59	—
2022	23	A+ RAW	Vancouver Canadians	29	8	81	343	64	39	5	28%	2.8	18.7%	11.4%	7.3%	1.5%	2.78	3.77	—
2023	24	MIX MLE	2 levels	26	9	71	300	68	25	6	35%	2.7	17.7%	9.5%	8.2%	2.2%	3.42	4.01	—
2023	24	MIX MLE	2 levels	26	9	71	300	68	25	6	35%	2.7	17.7%	9.5%	8.2%	2.2%	3.42	4.01	—
2023	24	MIX RAW	2 levels	26	9	71	300	68	25	6	35%	2.7	22.7%	8.3%	14.3%	2.0%	3.42	3.34	—
2024	25	MIX MLE	2 levels	35	9	87	376	73	31	10	26%	2.5	15.7%	8.2%	7.6%	2.4%	3.71	4.12	—
2024	25	MIX MLE	2 levels	35	9	87	376	73	31	10	26%	2.5	15.7%	8.2%	7.6%	2.4%	3.71	4.12	—
2024	25	MIX RAW	2 levels	35	9	87	376	73	31	10	26%	2.5	19.4%	8.2%	11.2%	2.7%	3.71	3.98	—
2025	26	AA MLE	Biloxi Shuckers	33	6	81	348	78	28	7	18%	2.5	18.2%	8.9%	9.3%	2.1%	4.09	3.82	—
2025	26	AA MLE	Biloxi Shuckers	33	6	81	348	78	28	7	18%	2.5	18.2%	8.9%	9.3%	2.1%	4.09	3.82	—
2025	26	AA RAW	Biloxi Shuckers	33	6	81	348	78	28	7	18%	2.5	22.4%	8.0%	14.4%	2.0%	4.09	3.33	—
▸ 2026 season
YTD	27	AA MLE	Arkansas Travelers	16	2	34	158	31	11	7	12%	2.1	15.9%	7.7%	8.2%	5.3%	6.55	5.65	—
YTD	27	AA MLE	Arkansas Travelers	16	2	34	158	31	11	7	12%	2.1	15.9%	7.7%	8.2%	5.3%	6.55	5.65	—
▸ 2026 season — so far · projected rest · full
2026	27	AA RAW	SEA	16	2	34	158	31	11	7	12%	2.1	19.6%	7.0%	12.7%	4.4%	6.55	4.76	—
ROS	27	MLB MLE	SEA	6	0	6	25	4	2	1	0%	1.0	17.0%	9.2%	7.9%	2.7%	4.66	4.66	-0.0
2026 TOT	27	MLB MLE	SEA	—	—	40	183	35	13	8	—	—	19.3%	7.3%	12.0%	4.2%	6.28	5.50	-0.4
▸ Career projection (2027+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2027	28	MLB MLE	SEA	65	0	68	287	50	27	8	0%	1.0	17.5%	9.3%	8.2%	2.8%	4.68	4.71	-0.1
2028	29	MLB MLE	SEA	62	0	65	274	49	26	8	0%	1.0	17.7%	9.5%	8.2%	3.0%	4.75	4.81	-0.2
2027	28	MLB CTX	SEA	25	0	26	110	19	10	3	0%	1.0	17.5%	9.3%	8.2%	2.8%	4.68	4.71	-0.0
2028	29	MLB CTX	SEA	34	0	36	152	27	14	5	0%	1.1	17.7%	9.5%	8.2%	3.0%	4.75	4.81	-0.1
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		59	0	62	261	46	25	8	0%	1.0	17.6%	9.4%	8.2%	2.9%	4.72	4.39	+0.1
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		190	0	200	844	149	81	26	0%	1.1	17.6%	9.4%	8.2%	2.9%	4.72	4.39	+0.4
Career	—	MLE		193	50	513	2182	355	211	51	26%	2.7	16.3%	9.6%	6.6%	2.4%	3.72	4.24	-0.3
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		75	19	200	850	138	82	20	26%	2.7	16.3%	9.6%	6.6%	2.4%	3.72	4.24	-0.5

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Abdiel Mendoza (OGILVIE)	—	—	4.66	17.0%	9.2%	2.7%	—	4.76	17.6%	8.2%	133	+0.10	—	—	—
Jorge Reyes R 2015 · 4.58 FIP	27	SW	4.58	15.9%	8.5%	3.2%	.307	3.49	14.2%	6.2%	129	-1.09	3.39	227	94
Roberto Gómez R 2017 · 3.95 FIP	27	SW	3.95	18.4%	8.9%	2.3%	.315	5.25	13.8%	4.9%	18	+1.30	3.95	115	88
Esmil Rogers R 2015 · 3.51 FIP	29	SW	3.51	18.5%	8.9%	1.6%	.348	2.86	21.7%	17.9%	40	-0.65	2.86	199	85
Trevor Cahill R 2015 · 4.13 FIP	27	SW	4.13	16.4%	9.4%	2.2%	.297	4.12	22.9%	12.0%	293	-0.01	3.37	556	84
Josh Roeder R 2019 · 4.71 FIP	26	SW	4.71	15.1%	8.7%	3.3%	.264	—	—	—	—	—	4.71	175	83
Coleman Huntley III R 2021 · 3.85 FIP	28	SW	3.85	20.2%	7.4%	2.8%	.348	3.56	23.4%	13.2%	86	-0.29	2.38	160	83
Dylan Cumming R 2023 · 4.11 FIP	24	SW	4.11	16.0%	10.7%	1.8%	.311	4.31	18.4%	9.4%	314	+0.20	3.75	406	82
Chad Jenkins R 2015 · 3.59 FIP	27	SW	3.59	13.1%	6.5%	1.4%	.296	3.92	12.5%	0.4%	30	+0.33	3.59	123	82
Taylor Grover R 2017 · 4.93 FIP	26	SW	4.93	20.0%	10.9%	3.9%	.320	4.89	16.2%	8.9%	14	-0.04	3.68	239	82
Calvin Drummond R 2016 · 3.55 FIP	26	SW	3.55	16.9%	11.1%	0.9%	.316	—	—	—	—	—	3.48	112	81
Derek Gordon R 2016 · 4.62 FIP	25	SW	4.62	19.9%	9.3%	3.7%	.315	—	—	—	—	—	4.62	146	81
Logan Bawcom R 2016 · 3.73 FIP	27	SW	3.73	16.6%	9.2%	1.6%	.251	4.85	16.0%	6.7%	234	+1.12	3.73	399	81
Daniel Blair R 2023 · 4.10 FIP	24	SW	4.10	16.6%	10.0%	2.1%	.284	4.39	17.0%	7.8%	78	+0.29	4.10	171	81
Rodolfo Aguirre R 2015 · 4.29 FIP	30	SW	4.29	12.4%	6.9%	2.5%	.288	4.81	11.4%	1.3%	125	+0.52	3.39	212	80
Bud Norris R 2015 · 4.68 FIP	30	SW	4.68	18.8%	8.2%	3.9%	.327	3.78	24.2%	15.5%	233	-0.90	3.51	316	80
Grant Black R 2021 · 4.46 FIP	27	SW	4.46	19.0%	13.9%	2.2%	.327	5.37	14.7%	3.6%	156	+0.91	4.46	215	80
Ramon Delgado R 2016 · 4.60 FIP	29	SW	4.60	13.8%	5.9%	3.5%	.332	4.31	11.2%	7.2%	74	-0.29	4.31	135	80
Dennis O'Grady R 2015 · 4.95 FIP	26	SW	4.95	13.5%	11.0%	2.9%	.339	—	—	—	—	—	3.62	157	80
Jose Pina R 2015 · 4.90 FIP	29	SW	4.90	16.9%	9.2%	3.8%	.231	3.66	13.6%	6.9%	246	-1.24	3.63	424	79
Luis Mateo R 2017 · 4.60 FIP	27	SU	4.60	17.6%	11.2%	2.9%	.309	5.55	8.6%	-4.8%	43	+0.95	3.48	160	79

Career Comps

Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 133 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	1.0	68	17.4%	9.3%	1.08	4.70
Josh Winckowski ('24)	1.2	77	18.3%	8.2%	1.13	4.21
Joe Biagini ('19)	1.6	81	19.1%	7.8%	1.28	4.86
Robert Gsellman ('21)	1.7	67	18.4%	7.8%	0.96	4.38
Roansy Contreras ('24)	1.2	77	19.5%	10.1%	1.36	4.78
Jarlín García ('22)	1.5	61	19.6%	7.8%	1.33	3.79
José Ruiz ('24)	1.3	52	22.2%	10.4%	1.41	4.41