Abdiel Mendoza
P
Arkansas Travelers
Age 27
RHP
5'10" / 160 lbs
AA
peak 0.1 · 2026
2026 ROS PROJECTION34 act + 70 ip · rates below = ROS only
wRC+ AGAINSTvL 123114vR 105
ERA4.61
FIP4.61
K%17.0%
BB%9.2%
K-BB%7.8%
ROS IP70
Value2026 · WAR
Runs saved vs league avg · 104 IP
Grades · Contract
Contract
No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.
Career Stats + Projections
Viewactual = stats as recorded (seasons combined) + projected real-world MLB lines · MLE = level/park-neutral translations
Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed
Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | G | GS | IP | BF | K | BB | HR | GS% | IP/G | K% | BB% | K-BB% | HR% | ERA | FIP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2016 | 17 | ROK | DSL Athletics | 17 | 0 | 31 | 127 | 25 | 9 | 0 | 0% | 1.8 | 13.4% | 8.9% | 4.5% | 0.0% | 2.32 | 3.09 | — |
| 2016 | 17 | ROK | DSL Athletics | 17 | 0 | 31 | 127 | 25 | 9 | 0 | 0% | 1.8 | 19.7% | 7.1% | 12.6% | 0.0% | 2.32 | 2.36 | — |
| 2017 | 18 | A | Beloit Snappers | 1 | 1 | 2 | 13 | 2 | 3 | 1 | 100% | 2.3 | 15.4% | 23.1% | -7.7% | 7.7% | 15.43 | 8.95 | — |
| 2017 | 18 | A | Beloit Snappers | 1 | 1 | 2 | 13 | 2 | 3 | 1 | 100% | 2.3 | 15.4% | 23.1% | -7.7% | 7.7% | 15.43 | 10.81 | — |
| 2018 | 19 | A | Hickory Crawdads | 1 | 0 | 3 | 11 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0% | 3.0 | 9.1% | 9.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.00 | 3.48 | — |
| 2018 | 19 | A | Hickory Crawdads | 1 | 0 | 3 | 11 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0% | 3.0 | 9.1% | 9.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.00 | 3.43 | — |
| 2019 | 20 | A | Hickory Crawdads | 25 | 8 | 86 | 342 | 75 | 25 | 8 | 32% | 3.4 | 16.2% | 8.6% | 7.6% | 2.2% | 3.15 | 4.04 | — |
| 2019 | 20 | A | Hickory Crawdads | 25 | 8 | 86 | 342 | 75 | 25 | 8 | 32% | 3.4 | 21.9% | 7.3% | 14.6% | 2.3% | 3.15 | 3.44 | — |
| 2021 | 22 | A | Down East Wood Ducks | 10 | 7 | 36 | 164 | 40 | 16 | 3 | 70% | 3.6 | 18.0% | 11.5% | 6.5% | 2.4% | 4.95 | 4.35 | — |
| 2021 | 22 | A | Down East Wood Ducks | 10 | 7 | 36 | 164 | 40 | 16 | 3 | 70% | 3.6 | 24.4% | 9.8% | 14.6% | 1.8% | 4.95 | 3.29 | — |
| 2022 | 23 | A+ | Vancouver Canadians | 29 | 8 | 81 | 343 | 64 | 39 | 5 | 28% | 2.8 | 14.4% | 13.1% | 1.3% | 2.0% | 2.78 | 4.65 | — |
| 2022 | 23 | A+ | Vancouver Canadians | 29 | 8 | 81 | 343 | 64 | 39 | 5 | 28% | 2.8 | 18.7% | 11.4% | 7.3% | 1.5% | 2.78 | 3.77 | — |
| 2023 | 24 | MIX | 2 levels | 26 | 9 | 71 | 300 | 68 | 25 | 6 | 35% | 2.7 | 17.7% | 9.5% | 8.2% | 2.0% | 3.42 | 3.92 | — |
| 2023 | 24 | MIX | 2 levels | 26 | 9 | 71 | 300 | 68 | 25 | 6 | 35% | 2.7 | 22.7% | 8.3% | 14.3% | 2.0% | 3.42 | 3.34 | — |
| 2024 | 25 | MIX | 2 levels | 35 | 9 | 87 | 376 | 73 | 31 | 10 | 26% | 2.5 | 15.7% | 8.2% | 7.6% | 2.1% | 3.71 | 3.97 | — |
| 2024 | 25 | MIX | 2 levels | 35 | 9 | 87 | 376 | 73 | 31 | 10 | 26% | 2.5 | 19.4% | 8.2% | 11.2% | 2.7% | 3.71 | 3.98 | — |
| 2025 | 26 | AA | Biloxi Shuckers | 33 | 6 | 81 | 348 | 78 | 28 | 7 | 18% | 2.5 | 18.2% | 8.9% | 9.3% | 1.8% | 4.09 | 3.68 | — |
| 2025 | 26 | AA | Biloxi Shuckers | 33 | 6 | 81 | 348 | 78 | 28 | 7 | 18% | 2.5 | 22.4% | 8.0% | 14.4% | 2.0% | 4.09 | 3.33 | — |
| ▸ 2026 Season | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2026 | 27 | AA | Arkansas Travelers | 16 | 2 | 34 | 158 | 31 | 11 | 7 | 12% | 2.1 | 15.9% | 7.7% | 8.2% | 5.3% | 6.55 | 5.65 | -0.4 |
| ROS | 27 | MLB | SEA | 67 | 0 | 70 | 296 | 50 | 27 | 8 | 0% | 1.0 | 17.0% | 9.2% | 7.8% | 2.6% | 4.61 | 4.61 | +0.1 |
| ROS | 27 | MLB | SEA | 1 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0% | 1.0 | 17.0% | 9.2% | 7.8% | 2.6% | 4.61 | 4.61 | -0.0 |
| 2026 TOT | 27 | MLB | SEA | — | — | 104 | 454 | 81 | 38 | 15 | — | — | 17.9% | 8.4% | 9.5% | 3.2% | 5.25 | 4.95 | +0.5 |
| 2026 FULL | 27 | MLB | SEA | — | — | 1 | 6 | 1 | 1 | 0 | — | — | 17.0% | 9.2% | 7.8% | 2.6% | 4.61 | 4.23 | +0.0 |
| ▸ 2027+ Projections WITH CONTEXT · MLB TIME ONLY ⓘ | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 28 | MLB | SEA | 65 | 0 | 68 | 287 | 50 | 27 | 8 | 0% | 1.0 | 17.5% | 9.3% | 8.2% | 2.7% | 4.63 | 4.66 | +0.0 |
| 2028 | 29 | MLB | SEA | 62 | 0 | 65 | 274 | 49 | 26 | 8 | 0% | 1.0 | 17.7% | 9.5% | 8.2% | 2.9% | 4.70 | 4.77 | -0.1 |
| 2027 | 28 | MLB | SEA | 25 | 0 | 26 | 110 | 19 | 10 | 3 | 0% | 1.0 | 17.5% | 9.3% | 8.2% | 2.7% | 4.63 | 4.66 | -0.0 |
| 2028 | 29 | MLB | SEA | 34 | 0 | 36 | 152 | 27 | 15 | 4 | 0% | 1.1 | 17.7% | 9.5% | 8.2% | 2.9% | 4.70 | 4.77 | -0.1 |
| ▸ Career (MLB actual + context projections) | |||||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | 60 | 0 | 63 | 266 | 47 | 25 | 7 | 0% | 1.0 | 17.6% | 9.4% | 8.2% | 2.8% | 4.67 | 4.34 | +0.2 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 190 | 0 | 200 | 844 | 149 | 79 | 22 | 0% | 1.1 | 17.6% | 9.4% | 8.2% | 2.8% | 4.67 | 4.34 | +2.5 | ||
| Career | — | 193 | 50 | 513 | 2182 | 355 | 211 | 48 | 26% | 2.7 | 16.3% | 9.6% | 6.6% | 2.2% | 3.72 | 4.16 | +7.4 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 75 | 19 | 200 | 850 | 138 | 82 | 19 | 26% | 2.7 | 16.3% | 9.6% | 6.6% | 2.2% | 3.72 | 4.16 | +2.9 | ||
Career Path Comps
What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection
| Profile at Match Age | Next 3 Yrs | Career | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Comp | Age | Role | FIP | K% | BB% | HR/BF | BABIP | FIP | K% | K-BB% | IP | ΔFIP | Low FIP | IP | Match |
| Abdiel Mendoza (OGILVIE) | — | — | 4.61 | 17.0% | 9.2% | 2.6% | — | 4.71 | 17.6% | 8.2% | 133 | +0.10 | — | — | — |
| Roberto Gómez R 2026 · 4.13 FIP | 27 | SW | 4.13 | 18.4% | 8.9% | 2.7% | .315 | 5.25 | 13.8% | 4.9% | 18 | +1.12 | 4.13 | 115 | 88 |
| Edwin Quirarte R 2027 · 3.59 FIP | 28 | SW | 3.59 | 16.7% | 6.2% | 2.0% | .311 | 3.45 | 12.7% | 4.9% | 83 | -0.14 | 3.21 | 157 | 86 |
| Jorge Reyes R 2026 · 5.25 FIP | 27 | SW | 5.25 | 15.9% | 8.5% | 4.4% | .307 | 3.44 | 14.2% | 6.2% | 129 | -1.81 | 3.32 | 227 | 85 |
| Esmil Rogers R 2028 · 3.51 FIP | 29 | SW | 3.51 | 18.5% | 8.9% | 1.6% | .348 | 2.88 | 21.7% | 17.9% | 40 | -0.63 | 2.88 | 199 | 85 |
| Trevor Cahill R 2026 · 4.15 FIP | 27 | SW | 4.15 | 16.4% | 9.4% | 2.3% | .297 | 4.10 | 22.9% | 12.0% | 293 | -0.05 | 3.33 | 556 | 84 |
| Josh Roeder R 2025 · 4.75 FIP | 26 | SW | 4.75 | 15.1% | 8.7% | 3.3% | .264 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.75 | 175 | 83 |
| Chad Jenkins R 2026 · 3.62 FIP | 27 | SW | 3.62 | 13.1% | 6.5% | 1.5% | .296 | 3.88 | 12.5% | 0.4% | 30 | +0.26 | 3.62 | 123 | 82 |
| Coleman Huntley III R 2027 · 4.14 FIP | 28 | SW | 4.14 | 20.2% | 7.4% | 3.3% | .348 | 3.66 | 23.4% | 13.2% | 86 | -0.48 | 2.38 | 160 | 82 |
| Logan Bawcom R 2026 · 3.79 FIP | 27 | SW | 3.79 | 16.6% | 9.2% | 1.7% | .251 | 4.85 | 16.0% | 6.7% | 234 | +1.06 | 3.76 | 399 | 82 |
| Taylor Grover R 2025 · 4.89 FIP | 26 | SW | 4.89 | 20.0% | 10.9% | 3.8% | .320 | 4.92 | 16.2% | 8.9% | 14 | +0.03 | 3.63 | 239 | 82 |
| Calvin Drummond R 2025 · 3.51 FIP | 26 | SW | 3.51 | 16.9% | 11.1% | 0.8% | .316 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.49 | 112 | 81 |
| Rodolfo Aguirre R 2029 · 4.28 FIP | 30 | SW | 4.28 | 12.4% | 6.9% | 2.5% | .288 | 4.99 | 11.4% | 1.3% | 125 | +0.71 | 3.49 | 212 | 81 |
| Grant Black R 2026 · 4.49 FIP | 27 | SW | 4.49 | 19.0% | 13.9% | 2.2% | .327 | 5.46 | 15.2% | 3.1% | 156 | +0.97 | 4.49 | 215 | 80 |
| Derek Gordon R 2024 · 4.72 FIP | 25 | SW | 4.72 | 19.9% | 9.3% | 3.9% | .315 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.72 | 146 | 80 |
| Luis Mateo R 2026 · 4.33 FIP | 27 | SU | 4.33 | 17.6% | 11.2% | 2.4% | .309 | 5.34 | 8.6% | -4.8% | 43 | +1.01 | 3.43 | 160 | 79 |
| Ramon Delgado R 2028 · 4.73 FIP | 29 | SW | 4.73 | 13.8% | 5.9% | 3.7% | .332 | 4.45 | 11.2% | 7.2% | 74 | -0.28 | 4.45 | 135 | 79 |
| Dennis O'Grady R 2025 · 5.19 FIP | 26 | SW | 5.19 | 13.5% | 11.0% | 3.4% | .339 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.79 | 157 | 79 |
| Robert Kwiatkowski R 2026 · 4.01 FIP | 27 | SU | 4.01 | 18.3% | 9.0% | 2.4% | .255 | 4.31 | 15.9% | 2.3% | 20 | +0.30 | 4.01 | 254 | 79 |
| Andres Santiago R 2026 · 4.27 FIP | 27 | SW | 4.27 | 16.3% | 9.1% | 2.5% | .384 | 5.45 | 13.1% | 3.2% | 159 | +1.18 | 3.74 | 291 | 78 |
| Josh Zeid R 2027 · 4.21 FIP | 28 | SU | 4.21 | 16.6% | 12.5% | 1.7% | .302 | 5.16 | 16.9% | 5.7% | 194 | +0.95 | 4.21 | 265 | 78 |
Career Comps
Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 327 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).
| Player | Yrs | IP/yr | K% | BB% | HR/9 | ERA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION | 3 | 68 | 17.4% | 9.3% | 1.05 | 4.65 |
| Josh Winckowski ('24) | 3 | 77 | 18.3% | 8.2% | 1.13 | 4.21 |
| Carlos Torres ('17) | 3 | 71 | 20.1% | 9.0% | 0.97 | 3.77 |
| Joe Biagini ('19) | 4 | 81 | 19.1% | 7.8% | 1.28 | 4.86 |
| Travis Wood ('17) | 3 | 85 | 20.8% | 9.8% | 1.34 | 4.72 |
| Brandon Maurer ('18) | 4 | 53 | 21.5% | 8.8% | 1.06 | 5.20 |
| Jim Johnson ('18) | 4 | 63 | 20.7% | 8.0% | 0.90 | 4.19 |