Dean Kremer — OGILVIE

Dean Kremer P Minnesota Twins

Age 30 RHP 6'2" / 210 lbs MLB Svc 4.0 · Ctrl thru 2027 peak 1.9 · 2026

2026 ROS PROJECTION91 act + 13 ip · rates below = ROS only

showingROS

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 111103vR 95

ERA3.87

FIP3.96

K%22.7%

BB%7.5%

K-BB%15.1%

ROS IP13

Value2026 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 105 IP

━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit━ post-control-$7M ctrl surplus

Grades · Statcast · Arsenal · Contract

Scouting Grades

OFP—50

STUF5055

CTRL5055

CMD5055

K†5050

Statcast Percentiles

FB Velo

p2692.8

Whiff%

p6928.2%

p5423.0%

xwOBA vs

p350.329

CT (18%)

SL (1%)

SI (14%)

CU (13%)

FB-3.2 (41%)

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status Arb-2

MLB Debut 2020

Service 4.651 yrs.days

Team Control Through 2027

First FA Year 2028

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2026ROS	Ext	$0.5M	+0.0	$0.2M	-$0.3M
2027	Arb-3	$7M	—	—	—
Totals		$0.5M		$-0.6M	-$0.3M

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2026 so far)
2016	20	MIX MLE	2 levels	12	6	32	118	35	7	0	50%	2.6	21.3%	7.2%	14.1%	0.0%	2.27	2.21	—
2016	20	MIX RAW	2 levels	12	6	32	118	35	7	0	50%	2.6	29.7%	5.9%	23.7%	0.0%	2.27	1.55	—
2017	21	A+ MLE	Rancho Cucamonga Quakes	33	6	80	356	96	34	6	18%	2.4	20.8%	11.0%	9.8%	1.9%	5.17	3.80	—
2017	21	A+ RAW	Rancho Cucamonga Quakes	33	6	80	356	96	34	6	18%	2.4	27.0%	9.6%	17.4%	1.7%	5.17	2.95	—
2018	22	MIX MLE	2 levels	25	25	131	534	178	46	10	100%	5.3	26.1%	9.7%	16.4%	2.2%	2.88	3.32	—
2018	22	MIX RAW	2 levels	25	25	131	534	178	46	10	100%	5.3	33.3%	8.6%	24.7%	1.9%	2.88	2.43	—
2019	23	MIX MLE	3 levels	21	21	114	475	122	37	11	100%	5.4	20.4%	8.3%	12.1%	3.1%	3.72	4.12	—
2019	23	MIX RAW	3 levels	21	21	114	475	122	37	11	100%	5.4	25.7%	7.8%	17.9%	2.3%	3.72	3.19	—
2020	24	MLB MLE	Baltimore Orioles	4	4	19	83	22	12	0	100%	4.7	26.5%	14.5%	12.0%	0.0%	4.82	2.69	+0.5
2020	24	MLB RAW	Baltimore Orioles	4	4	19	83	22	12	0	100%	4.7	26.5%	14.5%	12.0%	0.0%	4.82	2.67	+0.5
2021	25	MIX MLE	2 levels	30	26	116	515	116	45	26	87%	3.9	20.9%	8.9%	12.0%	4.9%	6.13	5.15	-0.3
2021	25	MIX RAW	2 levels	30	26	116	515	116	45	26	87%	3.9	22.5%	8.7%	13.8%	5.0%	6.13	5.18	-0.4
2022	26	MIX MLE	3 levels	25	24	134	544	105	36	11	96%	5.4	17.0%	6.6%	10.4%	2.2%	3.01	3.69	+2.0
2022	26	MIX RAW	3 levels	25	24	134	544	105	36	11	96%	5.4	19.3%	6.6%	12.7%	2.0%	3.01	3.41	+2.5
2023	27	MLB MLE	Baltimore Orioles	32	32	173	735	157	55	27	100%	5.4	21.4%	7.5%	13.9%	3.7%	4.12	4.28	+1.3
2023	27	MLB MLE	Baltimore Orioles	32	32	173	735	157	55	27	100%	5.4	21.4%	7.5%	13.9%	3.7%	4.12	4.28	+1.3
2023	27	MLB RAW	Baltimore Orioles	32	32	173	735	157	55	27	100%	5.4	21.4%	7.5%	13.9%	3.7%	4.12	4.27	+1.3
2024	28	MIX MLE	2 levels	27	27	138	599	132	55	22	100%	5.1	22.2%	9.2%	13.0%	3.3%	4.55	4.19	+1.2
2024	28	MIX MLE	2 levels	27	27	138	599	132	55	22	100%	5.1	22.2%	9.2%	13.0%	3.3%	4.55	4.19	+1.2
2024	28	MIX RAW	2 levels	27	27	138	599	132	55	22	100%	5.1	22.0%	9.2%	12.9%	3.7%	4.55	4.45	+0.7
2025	29	MLB MLE	Baltimore Orioles	31	29	172	708	142	45	22	94%	5.5	20.1%	6.4%	13.7%	3.0%	4.19	3.84	+2.2
2025	29	MLB MLE	Baltimore Orioles	31	29	172	708	142	45	22	94%	5.5	20.1%	6.4%	13.7%	3.0%	4.19	3.84	+2.2
2025	29	MLB RAW	Baltimore Orioles	31	29	172	708	142	45	22	94%	5.5	20.1%	6.4%	13.7%	3.1%	4.19	3.90	+2.1
▸ Career totals (raw MLB only — as recorded)
MLB Career	—			140	137	743	3136	647	247	111	98%	5.3	20.6%	7.9%	12.8%	3.5%	4.40	4.30	+5.3
▸ 2026 season
YTD	30	MLB MLE	Minnesota Twins	18	18	91	375	94	30	17	100%	5.1	23.9%	7.9%	16.1%	4.5%	4.83	4.57	+0.4
YTD	30	MLB MLE	Minnesota Twins	18	18	91	375	94	30	17	100%	5.1	23.9%	7.9%	16.1%	4.5%	4.83	4.57	+0.4
▸ 2026 season — so far · projected rest · full
2026	30	AAA RAW	MIN	4	4	20	75	25	5	1	100%	4.9	33.3%	6.7%	26.7%	1.3%	1.83	1.86	—
2026	30	MLB RAW	MIN	14	14	72	300	69	25	16	100%	5.1	23.0%	8.3%	14.7%	5.3%	5.65	5.14	-0.2
SO FAR	30	MLB RAW	MIN	14	14	72	300	69	25	16	100%	5.1	23.0%	8.3%	14.7%	5.3%	5.65	5.14	-0.2
ROS	30	MLB MLE	MIN	2	2	13	56	13	4	2	100%	6.7	22.7%	7.5%	15.1%	3.3%	3.87	3.96	+0.1
ROS	30	MLB CTX	MIN	2	2	13	55	12	4	2	100%	6.5	22.7%	7.5%	15.1%	3.3%	3.88	3.97	+0.1
2026 TOT	30	MLB MLE	MIN	—	—	105	431	107	34	19	—	—	24.8%	7.9%	16.8%	4.4%	4.71	4.49	+0.5
FULL	30	MLB A+C	MIN	—	—	85	359	107	34	19	—	—	29.7%	9.5%	20.2%	5.3%	5.80	4.68	+0.3
▸ Career projection (2027+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2027	31	MLB MLE	MIN	25	25	149	630	133	51	26	100%	6.0	21.1%	8.1%	13.0%	4.2%	4.89	5.02	-0.2
2028	32	MLB MLE	MIN	23	23	138	582	118	49	26	100%	6.0	20.3%	8.5%	11.8%	4.4%	5.12	5.27	-0.6
2027	31	MLB CTX	MIN	25	25	149	629	133	51	26	100%	6.0	21.1%	8.1%	13.0%	4.2%	4.90	5.03	-0.2
2028	32	MLB CTX	MIN	23	23	138	583	118	49	26	100%	6.0	20.3%	8.5%	11.8%	4.5%	5.13	5.28	-0.6
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		190	187	1044	4404	911	352	165	98%	5.5	20.7%	8.0%	12.7%	3.8%	4.56	4.43	+5.8
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		36	36	200	844	175	67	32	98%	5.5	20.7%	8.0%	12.7%	3.8%	4.56	4.43	+1.1
Career	—	MLE		258	218	1200	5042	1080	418	155	84%	4.6	21.4%	8.3%	13.1%	3.1%	4.16	4.03	+4.6
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		43	36	200	841	180	70	26	84%	4.6	21.4%	8.3%	13.1%	3.1%	4.16	4.03	+0.9

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Dean Kremer (OGILVIE)	—	—	4.37	20.7%	7.2%	3.1%	—	5.14	20.7%	12.4%	287	+0.77	—	—	—
Chase Anderson R 2018 · 4.98 FIP	30	SP	4.98	19.9%	8.9%	4.4%	.235	4.93	20.1%	11.9%	253	-0.05	3.30	1,146	73
Tanner Roark R 2017 · 3.88 FIP	30	SP	3.88	21.4%	7.6%	3.0%	.294	4.48	20.3%	13.2%	393	+0.60	3.13	942	67
Masahiro Tanaka R 2019 · 4.01 FIP	30	SP	4.01	19.6%	5.3%	3.5%	.292	4.08	22.3%	18.2%	48	+0.07	3.34	918	66
Rick Porcello R 2019 · 4.51 FIP	30	SP	4.51	18.6%	5.6%	4.1%	.303	3.13	20.7%	15.0%	59	-1.38	3.13	1,023	65
Jhoulys Chacín R 2018 · 3.71 FIP	30	SP	3.71	19.6%	8.5%	2.1%	.244	5.07	20.0%	10.1%	168	+1.36	3.71	887	65
Tom Koehler R 2016 · 4.38 FIP	30	SP	4.38	19.0%	9.8%	3.0%	.291	4.66	22.4%	13.4%	110	+0.28	4.38	474	60
Kyle Gibson R 2018 · 3.97 FIP	30	SP	3.97	21.7%	9.3%	2.8%	.282	3.91	21.2%	12.9%	409	-0.06	3.56	1,689	60
Chris Archer R 2019 · 4.90 FIP	30	SP	4.90	27.2%	10.1%	5.1%	.292	4.39	20.7%	10.4%	136	-0.51	2.85	1,018	60
Mike Leake R 2018 · 3.97 FIP	30	SP	3.97	15.2%	4.0%	3.0%	.301	5.05	15.2%	12.2%	197	+1.08	3.69	937	59
Miles Mikolas R 2019 · 4.11 FIP	30	SP	4.11	18.8%	4.1%	3.8%	.295	4.02	18.4%	13.4%	266	-0.09	3.13	1,296	58
Iván Nova R 2017 · 4.43 FIP	30	SP	4.43	16.7%	4.3%	4.0%	.294	4.67	15.0%	9.6%	367	+0.24	4.03	810	58
Stephen Strasburg R 2018 · 3.33 FIP	30	SP	3.33	28.7%	6.6%	3.3%	.299	3.14	29.1%	22.3%	231	-0.19	2.42	811	58
Jeremy Hellickson R 2017 · 5.25 FIP	30	SP	5.25	13.8%	6.5%	4.5%	.241	4.29	17.7%	11.3%	147	-0.96	3.74	646	56
Michael Pineda R 2019 · 3.79 FIP	30	SP	3.79	23.3%	4.5%	3.8%	.288	4.20	18.0%	13.4%	208	+0.41	2.00	786	53
Jake Arrieta R 2016 · 3.42 FIP	30	SP	3.42	23.9%	9.4%	2.1%	.237	4.07	20.3%	12.6%	477	+0.65	2.13	1,046	53
Jordan Zimmermann R 2016 · 4.38 FIP	30	SP	4.38	14.3%	5.7%	3.2%	.297	4.80	16.8%	11.6%	403	+0.42	3.57	731	53
Matt Shoemaker R 2017 · 4.88 FIP	30	SP	4.88	21.2%	8.6%	4.5%	.271	4.29	23.5%	15.5%	88	-0.59	3.17	592	52
Marcus Stroman R 2021 · 3.28 FIP	30	SP	3.28	21.6%	5.8%	2.3%	.281	3.82	19.3%	11.2%	430	+0.54	3.28	1,367	52
Chris Bassitt R 2019 · 4.20 FIP	30	SP	4.20	23.0%	7.7%	3.8%	.258	3.35	23.2%	16.9%	402	-0.85	3.02	1,554	51
Matt Harvey R 2019 · 5.21 FIP	30	SP	5.21	18.1%	10.2%	4.3%	.299	5.13	16.2%	8.6%	194	-0.08	2.90	806	51

Career Comps

Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 133 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	2.2	149	20.7%	7.9%	1.50	4.74
Dan Straily ('19)	2.7	136	20.0%	8.9%	1.72	4.54
Mike Foltynewicz ('21)	4.0	134	21.4%	7.7%	1.46	4.45
Kutter Crawford ('24)	2.0	130	23.9%	7.2%	1.45	4.47
James Kaprielian ('23)	1.6	105	20.5%	9.6%	1.26	4.58
Dylan Bundy ('22)	4.5	130	22.0%	7.3%	1.61	4.75
Julio Teheran ('23)	5.2	147	20.4%	8.8%	1.34	4.12