Dean Kremer — OGILVIE

Dean Kremer P Norfolk Tides

+0.8 WAR

INJURED · Injured 15-Day (D15)

Age 30 RHP 6'2" / 210 lbs AAA Svc 4.0 · Ctrl thru 2027 peak 1.3 · 2027

ERA4.23

FIP4.29

xFIP2.28

SIERA2.10

K%21.0%

BB%7.4%

K-BB%13.6%

IP156

trajectory · 10 yrs

1.3peak

2027

K†5055

CT (6%)

SL (4%)

SI (11%)

CU (14%)

FB-3.2 (34%)

Career (MLE) + Projections

Park-neutral MLB-equivalent. MiLB translated via MLE factors. FIP-based WAR vs replacement FIP=5.3 (SP) / 4.95 (RP, <80 IP). FIP+ = runs above league-avg FIP · REP = replacement-level bonus.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	K%	BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
2016	20	A	Great Lakes Loons	12	6	32	118	35	7	0	21.3%	7.2%	0.0%	2.27	2.21	+1.0
2017	21	A+	Rancho Cucamonga Quakes	33	6	80	356	96	34	6	20.8%	11.0%	2.0%	5.17	3.83	+1.2
2018	22	AA	Bowie Baysox	25	25	131	534	178	46	10	26.1%	9.7%	2.2%	2.88	3.32	+2.9
2019	23	AAA	Norfolk Tides	21	21	114	475	122	37	11	20.4%	8.3%	3.1%	3.72	4.12	+1.5
2020	24	MLB	Baltimore Orioles	4	4	19	83	22	12	0	26.5%	14.5%	0.0%	4.82	2.69	+0.5
2021	25	MLB	Baltimore Orioles	30	26	116	515	116	45	26	20.9%	8.9%	4.7%	6.13	5.04	+0.3
2022	26	MLB	Baltimore Orioles	25	24	134	544	105	36	11	17.0%	6.6%	2.3%	3.01	3.74	+2.4
2023	27	MLB	Baltimore Orioles	32	32	173	735	157	55	27	21.4%	7.5%	3.5%	4.12	4.16	+2.2
2024	28	MLB	Baltimore Orioles	27	27	138	599	132	55	22	22.2%	9.2%	3.1%	4.55	4.10	+1.9
2025	29	MLB	Baltimore Orioles	31	29	172	708	142	45	22	20.1%	6.4%	2.9%	4.19	3.78	+3.0
▸ 2026 Season
2026	30	MLB	Baltimore Orioles	3	3	14	59	21	2	4	—	—	—	3.14	—	—
ROS	30	MLB	BAL	12	12	68	286	60	21	9	20.8%	7.4%	3.0%	4.24	4.32	+0.5
2026 Total	30	MLB	BAL	—	—	82	345	81	23	13	23.3%	6.7%	3.7%	4.05	3.57	+1.5
▸ 2027+ Projections — Marcel base + age-bracket aging
2027	31	MLB	BAL	24	24	131	551	123	39	20	22.3%	7.1%	3.6%	4.37	4.45	+1.3
2028	32	MLB	BAL	21	21	117	492	107	36	18	21.7%	7.2%	3.6%	4.48	4.56	+1.0
2029	33	MLB	BAL	19	19	104	437	92	32	16	21.0%	7.4%	3.7%	4.60	4.69	+0.7
2030	34	MLB	BAL	17	17	92	386	79	29	15	20.3%	7.6%	3.8%	4.74	4.83	+0.4
2031	35	MLB	BAL	15	15	80	339	66	27	13	19.6%	7.8%	3.9%	4.88	4.98	+0.1
2032	36	MLB	BAL	13	13	70	294	61	21	12	20.8%	7.3%	4.1%	4.87	4.87	+0.1
▸ Career (all levels · actual + projected)
Career	—			243	203	1123	4726	1011	390	138	21.4%	8.3%	2.9%	4.10	3.95	+17.2
/ 200 IP	—			43	36	200	842	180	69	25	21.4%	8.3%	2.9%	4.10	3.95	+3.1

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Dean Kremer (OGILVIE)	—	—	4.32	20.8%	7.4%	3.0%	—	4.56	21.7%	14.5%	351	+0.24	—	—	—
Mitch Atkins R 2026 · 3.70 FIP	30	SP-	3.70	21.4%	8.2%	2.5%	.341	4.75	14.3%	6.2%	78	+1.05	3.70	205	37
Chris Leroux R 2027 · 4.22 FIP	31	SW	4.22	15.2%	8.6%	2.4%	.279	4.06	13.5%	5.5%	140	-0.16	4.06	219	36
Joakim Soria R 2027 · 3.48 FIP	31	SW	3.48	23.5%	6.6%	2.8%	.258	2.91	26.6%	18.9%	183	-0.57	2.00	380	36
Kevin Jepsen R 2027 · 3.46 FIP	31	SW	3.46	20.7%	9.1%	1.7%	.241	5.68	16.9%	7.2%	90	+2.22	3.46	160	36
Fernando Rodriguez Jr. R 2027 · 3.38 FIP	31	SW	3.38	26.5%	9.6%	2.4%	.241	3.98	23.3%	13.2%	105	+0.60	3.38	212	36
Felipe Arredondo R 2026 · 4.79 FIP	30	SW	4.79	14.8%	7.3%	3.7%	.311	4.68	16.2%	9.1%	64	-0.11	3.93	337	35
Jim Johnson R 2028 · 3.34 FIP	32	SW	3.34	17.2%	6.2%	1.7%	.330	3.67	22.0%	14.1%	185	+0.33	2.57	251	35
Matt Shoemaker R 2026 · 4.70 FIP	30	SW	4.70	21.2%	8.6%	4.2%	.271	4.27	23.5%	15.5%	88	-0.43	3.20	592	35
Elian Leyva R 2026 · 4.30 FIP	30	SW	4.30	17.0%	8.5%	2.9%	.323	—	—	—	—	—	3.11	158	35
Michael Bowden R 2024 · 3.20 FIP	28	SP-	3.20	17.3%	6.4%	1.4%	.282	—	—	—	—	—	3.20	141	35
Blake Smith R 2024 · 3.63 FIP	28	SW	3.63	22.4%	8.6%	2.4%	.307	—	—	—	—	—	3.18	124	35
Sam Dyson R 2026 · 3.34 FIP	30	SW	3.34	20.5%	7.0%	2.0%	.264	3.27	22.1%	16.9%	62	-0.07	2.67	333	35
Ervin Santana R 2028 · 4.00 FIP	32	SP-	4.00	17.1%	7.1%	2.6%	.273	4.12	19.2%	12.4%	417	+0.12	3.75	720	34
Blake Wood R 2026 · 3.79 FIP	30	SW	3.79	24.5%	10.6%	2.6%	.307	3.35	25.3%	16.0%	74	-0.44	2.91	210	34
Jose Samayoa R 2025 · 4.08 FIP	29	SP-	4.08	19.4%	7.0%	3.1%	.314	—	—	—	—	—	3.45	262	34
Esmil Rogers R 2025 · 3.44 FIP	29	SW	3.44	18.5%	8.9%	1.4%	.348	2.85	21.7%	17.9%	40	-0.59	2.85	199	34
Austin Bibens-Dirkx R 2026 · 3.94 FIP	30	SP-	3.94	17.4%	7.1%	2.6%	.315	4.95	15.9%	8.7%	305	+1.01	3.94	567	34
Jumbo Diaz R 2027 · 3.21 FIP	31	SW	3.21	25.2%	6.0%	2.7%	.286	3.66	21.9%	12.2%	152	+0.45	2.80	284	34
Jonathan Broxton R 2027 · 3.73 FIP	31	SW	3.73	24.5%	8.2%	3.0%	.325	3.80	21.7%	13.5%	76	+0.07	3.65	137	34
Frankie De La Cruz R 2029 · 3.74 FIP	33	SP-	3.74	15.2%	8.0%	1.7%	.262	4.37	16.2%	8.2%	114	+0.63	3.74	240	34

Contract

ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status Arb-2

MLB Debut 2020

Service 4.651 yrs.days

Team Control Through 2027

First FA Year 2028

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2026	Arb-2	$6M	+0.8	$3M	+$0.0M (cut)
2027	Arb-3	$7M	+1.3	$11M	+$4M
Totals		$10M		$14M	+$4M