James Naile prospect projection, MLE, ETA

James Naile P Memphis Redbirds

Age 33 RHP 6'4" / 185 lbs AAA

2026 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONpark-neutral Marcel · 156 proj IP

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 121113vR 105

ERA4.62

FIP4.63

K%19.9%

BB%9.7%

K-BB%10.2%

ROS IP156

Value2026 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 156 IP

Grades · Statcast · Arsenal · Contract

Scouting Grades

OFP—35

STUF5050

CMD4040

K†4545

Statcast Percentiles

FB Velo

p2392.6

Whiff%

p1014.4%

p108.8%

xwOBA vs

p100.402

CT-0.6

FB-4.3

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2026 so far)
2015	22	ROK MLE	AZL Athletics	2	0	2	6	1	0	0	0%	1.0	16.7%	0.0%	16.7%	0.0%	0.00	1.69	—
2015	22	ROK RAW	AZL Athletics	2	0	2	6	1	0	0	0%	1.0	16.7%	0.0%	16.7%	0.0%	0.00	2.10	—
2016	23	MIX MLE	4 levels	28	26	157	635	125	37	9	93%	5.6	15.6%	6.3%	9.3%	1.6%	3.39	3.48	—
2016	23	MIX RAW	4 levels	28	26	157	635	125	37	9	93%	5.6	19.7%	5.8%	13.9%	1.4%	3.39	2.96	—
2017	24	MIX MLE	3 levels	18	14	74	303	57	18	6	78%	4.1	13.5%	7.4%	6.1%	2.8%	3.30	4.42	—
2017	24	MIX RAW	3 levels	18	14	74	303	57	18	6	78%	4.1	18.8%	5.9%	12.9%	2.0%	3.30	3.34	—
2018	25	MIX MLE	2 levels	26	26	151	646	84	42	13	100%	5.8	11.4%	6.8%	4.5%	2.3%	4.54	4.25	—
2018	25	MIX RAW	2 levels	26	26	151	646	84	42	13	100%	5.8	13.0%	6.5%	6.5%	2.0%	4.54	3.94	—
2019	26	MIX MLE	2 levels	27	24	141	635	92	50	16	89%	5.2	11.8%	8.6%	3.2%	3.0%	5.41	4.84	—
2019	26	MIX RAW	2 levels	27	24	141	635	92	50	16	89%	5.2	14.5%	7.9%	6.6%	2.5%	5.41	4.33	—
2021	28	AAA MLE	Las Vegas Aviators	51	0	62	273	51	13	7	0%	1.2	16.4%	5.0%	11.4%	3.0%	4.04	3.99	—
2021	28	AAA RAW	Las Vegas Aviators	51	0	62	273	51	13	7	0%	1.2	18.7%	4.8%	13.9%	2.6%	4.04	3.55	—
2022	29	MIX MLE	2 levels	51	3	82	354	69	23	7	6%	1.6	17.8%	7.0%	10.8%	1.7%	3.50	3.39	+1.1
2022	29	MIX RAW	2 levels	51	3	82	354	69	23	7	6%	1.6	19.5%	6.5%	13.0%	2.0%	3.50	3.37	+1.2
2023	30	MIX MLE	2 levels	41	3	74	330	73	30	7	7%	1.8	19.3%	8.5%	10.9%	2.4%	4.72	3.87	+0.6
2023	30	MIX MLE	2 levels	41	3	74	330	73	30	7	7%	1.8	19.3%	8.5%	10.9%	2.4%	4.72	3.87	+0.6
2023	30	MIX RAW	2 levels	41	3	74	330	73	30	7	7%	1.8	22.1%	9.1%	13.0%	2.1%	4.72	3.57	+0.9
▸ Career totals (raw MLB only — as recorded)
MLB Career	—			17	0	24	117	12	11	3	0%	1.4	10.3%	9.4%	0.9%	2.6%	7.40	5.07	-0.1
▸ 2026 season — projected remainder (no 2026 stats recorded)
2026	33	MLB	STL	—	—	0	—	—	—	—	—	—	19.9%	9.7%	10.2%	2.9%	4.62	4.63	—
▸ Career projection (2027+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2027	34	MLB MLE	STL	143	0	150	634	122	63	20	0%	1.1	19.2%	10.0%	9.2%	3.2%	4.77	4.89	-0.6
2028	35	MLB MLE	STL	128	0	135	569	105	59	20	0%	1.1	18.5%	10.4%	8.1%	3.6%	5.00	5.18	-0.9
2027	34	MLB CTX	STL	8	0	8	34	6	3	1	0%	1.0	19.2%	10.0%	9.2%	3.2%	4.77	4.89	-0.0
2028	35	MLB CTX	STL	1	0	1	4	1	0	0	0%	1.0	18.5%	10.4%	8.1%	3.6%	5.00	5.18	-0.0
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		26	0	34	158	20	15	4	0%	1.3	12.5%	9.6%	3.0%	2.7%	6.66	4.76	-0.1
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		154	0	200	928	118	88	24	0%	1.3	12.5%	9.6%	3.0%	2.7%	6.66	4.76	-0.5
Career	—	MLE		244	96	743	3182	461	228	74	39%	3.0	14.5%	7.2%	7.3%	2.3%	4.19	4.07	-1.7
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		66	26	200	856	124	61	20	39%	3.0	14.5%	7.2%	7.3%	2.3%	4.19	4.07	-1.1

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
James Naile (OGILVIE)	—	—	4.63	19.9%	9.7%	2.9%	—	5.03	18.9%	8.7%	285	+0.40	—	—	—
Pete Walker R 2002 · 4.59 FIP	33	SP-	4.59	13.4%	7.7%	3.0%	.279	5.16	12.0%	2.8%	139	+0.57	4.45	327	62
Toru Murata R 2016 · 3.63 FIP	31	SW	3.63	12.9%	5.7%	1.6%	.288	—	—	—	—	—	3.63	267	59
Austin Bibens-Dirkx R 2018 · 4.89 FIP	33	SP-	4.89	17.9%	7.6%	4.3%	.322	4.82	15.9%	9.5%	147	-0.07	3.97	567	57
Angel Castro R 2016 · 5.42 FIP	33	SW	5.42	12.3%	9.1%	4.0%	.304	3.51	14.5%	7.1%	139	-1.91	3.51	292	57
Mitch Lively R 2017 · 3.47 FIP	31	SP-	3.47	17.0%	6.4%	1.8%	.304	—	—	—	—	—	2.39	158	57
Kenshin Kawakami R 2009 · 3.97 FIP	34	SP-	3.97	15.7%	7.6%	2.2%	.277	4.06	15.1%	9.5%	87	+0.09	3.97	244	56
Chris Jakubauskas R 2011 · 4.42 FIP	32	SW	4.42	15.7%	7.9%	3.0%	.339	—	—	—	—	—	4.42	165	56
Ivan Maldonado R 2015 · 4.60 FIP	35	SW	4.60	12.8%	8.7%	2.7%	.269	5.41	6.4%	-3.3%	104	+0.81	4.60	172	53
Marco Quevedo R 2019 · 5.17 FIP	32	SP-	5.17	13.6%	11.4%	3.2%	.344	—	—	—	—	—	4.13	300	53
Zach Neal R 2022 · 5.53 FIP	33	SP-	5.53	16.1%	5.7%	5.6%	.321	5.98	15.6%	9.6%	101	+0.45	4.24	732	52
Deck McGuire R 2022 · 5.12 FIP	33	SP-	5.12	15.7%	13.1%	3.1%	.279	—	—	—	—	—	3.41	622	50
Angel Sánchez R 2023 · 4.90 FIP	33	SW	4.90	19.0%	10.5%	3.8%	.333	3.77	11.8%	6.8%	27	-1.13	3.77	284	49
Giovanni Carrara R 2001 · 4.06 FIP	33	SU	4.06	20.1%	6.0%	3.5%	.249	4.28	15.7%	7.9%	173	+0.22	2.50	462	48
Casey Lawrence R 2021 · 4.08 FIP	33	SP-	4.08	20.0%	5.2%	3.7%	.284	4.99	15.9%	10.6%	440	+0.91	3.57	1,374	48
Mike Burns R 2009 · 4.90 FIP	31	SP-	4.90	17.2%	6.6%	4.4%	.307	—	—	—	—	—	3.10	104	48
Junior Guerra R 2018 · 3.99 FIP	33	SP	3.99	22.3%	9.0%	3.0%	.309	4.12	21.2%	9.1%	173	+0.13	3.18	646	47
R.A. Dickey R 2008 · 4.96 FIP	33	SW	4.96	11.6%	9.4%	3.0%	.287	3.78	14.9%	8.6%	447	-1.18	3.14	2,070	47
Felipe Arredondo R 2019 · 4.65 FIP	32	SU	4.65	16.2%	7.1%	3.7%	.272	—	—	—	—	—	3.92	337	47
Osvaldo Fernandez R 2001 · 4.53 FIP	32	SP-	4.53	9.6%	8.2%	2.2%	.324	—	—	—	—	—	4.25	387	47
Juan Omar Espinoza R 2016 · 4.84 FIP	32	SP-	4.84	8.4%	9.2%	2.4%	.348	—	—	—	—	—	4.81	104	46

Career Comps

Completed MLB careers (no pro action in 2+ yrs) whose totals — actual + projected — most resemble this player's. Pool: 465 starter careers (1990-2024).

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	2.4	158	18.7%	10.0%	1.23	4.92
Tom Koehler ('17)	3.9	157	17.9%	9.6%	1.08	4.39
Ian Snell ('10)	4.0	134	17.8%	10.4%	1.12	4.80
James Kaprielian ('23)	1.6	106	20.5%	9.7%	1.30	4.61
Robert Person ('03)	4.5	128	19.8%	11.2%	1.29	4.64
Tony Armas ('08)	4.6	116	16.8%	10.6%	1.19	4.65
Kevin Foster ('01)	2.5	127	18.9%	10.0%	1.55	4.86