James Naile
P
Memphis Redbirds
Age 33
RHP
6'4" / 185 lbs
AAA
peak 0.1 · 2026
2026 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONpark-neutral Marcel · 156 proj IP
wRC+ AGAINSTvL 121112vR 103
ERA4.55
FIP4.50
K%22.1%
BB%10.0%
K-BB%12.0%
ROS IP156
Value2026 · WAR
Runs saved vs league avg · 156 IP
Grades · Statcast · Arsenal · Contract
Statcast Percentiles
FB Velo
p2392.6
Whiff%
p1014.4%
K%
p108.8%
xwOBA vs
p100.402
CT-0.6
FB-4.3
Contract
No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.
Career Stats + Projections
Viewactual = stats as recorded (seasons combined) + projected real-world MLB lines · MLE = level/park-neutral translations
Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed
Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | G | GS | IP | BF | K | BB | HR | GS% | IP/G | K% | BB% | K-BB% | HR% | ERA | FIP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2015 | 22 | ROK | AZL Athletics | 2 | 0 | 2 | 6 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0% | 1.0 | 16.7% | 0.0% | 16.7% | 0.0% | 0.00 | 1.69 | — |
| 2015 | 22 | ROK | AZL Athletics | 2 | 0 | 2 | 6 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0% | 1.0 | 16.7% | 0.0% | 16.7% | 0.0% | 0.00 | 2.10 | — |
| 2016 | 23 | MIX | 4 levels | 28 | 26 | 157 | 635 | 125 | 37 | 9 | 93% | 5.6 | 15.6% | 6.3% | 9.3% | 1.6% | 3.39 | 3.44 | — |
| 2016 | 23 | MIX | 4 levels | 28 | 26 | 157 | 635 | 125 | 37 | 9 | 93% | 5.6 | 19.7% | 5.8% | 13.9% | 1.4% | 3.39 | 2.96 | — |
| 2017 | 24 | MIX | 3 levels | 18 | 14 | 74 | 303 | 57 | 18 | 6 | 78% | 4.1 | 13.5% | 7.4% | 6.1% | 3.3% | 3.30 | 4.71 | — |
| 2017 | 24 | MIX | 3 levels | 18 | 14 | 74 | 303 | 57 | 18 | 6 | 78% | 4.1 | 18.8% | 5.9% | 12.9% | 2.0% | 3.30 | 3.34 | — |
| 2018 | 25 | MIX | 2 levels | 26 | 26 | 151 | 646 | 84 | 42 | 13 | 100% | 5.8 | 11.4% | 6.8% | 4.5% | 2.3% | 4.54 | 4.28 | — |
| 2018 | 25 | MIX | 2 levels | 26 | 26 | 151 | 646 | 84 | 42 | 13 | 100% | 5.8 | 13.0% | 6.5% | 6.5% | 2.0% | 4.54 | 3.94 | — |
| 2019 | 26 | MIX | 2 levels | 27 | 24 | 141 | 635 | 92 | 50 | 16 | 89% | 5.2 | 11.8% | 8.6% | 3.2% | 3.1% | 5.41 | 4.87 | — |
| 2019 | 26 | MIX | 2 levels | 27 | 24 | 141 | 635 | 92 | 50 | 16 | 89% | 5.2 | 14.5% | 7.9% | 6.6% | 2.5% | 5.41 | 4.33 | — |
| 2021 | 28 | AAA | Las Vegas Aviators | 51 | 0 | 62 | 273 | 51 | 13 | 7 | 0% | 1.2 | 16.4% | 5.0% | 11.4% | 3.2% | 4.04 | 4.10 | — |
| 2021 | 28 | AAA | Las Vegas Aviators | 51 | 0 | 62 | 273 | 51 | 13 | 7 | 0% | 1.2 | 18.7% | 4.8% | 13.9% | 2.6% | 4.04 | 3.55 | — |
| 2022 | 29 | MIX | 2 levels | 51 | 3 | 82 | 354 | 69 | 23 | 7 | 6% | 1.6 | 17.8% | 7.0% | 10.8% | 1.6% | 3.50 | 3.35 | +1.6 |
| 2022 | 29 | MIX | 2 levels | 51 | 3 | 82 | 354 | 69 | 23 | 7 | 6% | 1.6 | 19.5% | 6.5% | 13.0% | 2.0% | 3.50 | 3.37 | +1.6 |
| 2023 | 30 | MIX | 2 levels | 41 | 3 | 74 | 330 | 73 | 30 | 7 | 7% | 1.8 | 19.7% | 9.4% | 10.3% | 2.5% | 4.72 | 4.00 | +0.7 |
| 2023 | 30 | MIX | 2 levels | 41 | 3 | 74 | 330 | 73 | 30 | 7 | 7% | 1.8 | 22.1% | 9.1% | 13.0% | 2.1% | 4.72 | 3.57 | +1.1 |
| ▸ 2026 Season | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2026 | 33 | MLB | STL | 157 | 0 | 165 | 697 | 154 | 70 | 20 | 0% | 1.1 | 22.1% | 10.0% | 12.0% | 2.9% | 4.55 | 4.50 | +1.7 |
| ▸ 2027+ Projections WITH CONTEXT · MLB TIME ONLY ⓘ | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 34 | MLB | STL | 143 | 0 | 150 | 634 | 134 | 65 | 21 | 0% | 1.1 | 21.1% | 10.3% | 10.8% | 3.2% | 4.68 | 4.78 | +1.1 |
| 2028 | 35 | MLB | STL | 128 | 0 | 135 | 569 | 115 | 61 | 20 | 0% | 1.1 | 20.2% | 10.7% | 9.6% | 3.6% | 4.90 | 5.07 | +0.5 |
| 2029 | 36 | MLB | STL | 114 | 0 | 119 | 504 | 97 | 56 | 20 | 0% | 1.0 | 19.3% | 11.1% | 8.2% | 3.9% | 5.19 | 5.40 | 0.0 |
| 2027 | 34 | MLB | STL | 8 | 0 | 8 | 34 | 7 | 3 | 1 | 0% | 1.0 | 21.1% | 10.3% | 10.8% | 3.2% | 4.68 | 4.78 | -0.0 |
| 2028 | 35 | MLB | STL | 1 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0% | 1.0 | 20.2% | 10.7% | 9.6% | 3.6% | 4.90 | 5.07 | -0.0 |
| 2029 | 36 | MLB | STL | — | — | 0 | — | — | — | — | — | — | 19.3% | 11.1% | 8.2% | 3.9% | 5.19 | 5.40 | — |
| ▸ Career (MLB actual + context projections) | |||||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | 26 | 0 | 34 | 158 | 21 | 15 | 4 | 0% | 1.3 | 13.0% | 9.6% | 3.4% | 2.7% | 6.64 | 4.73 | -0.1 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 154 | 0 | 200 | 928 | 124 | 88 | 24 | 0% | 1.3 | 13.0% | 9.6% | 3.4% | 2.7% | 6.64 | 4.73 | +1.6 | ||
| Career | — | 244 | 96 | 743 | 3182 | 463 | 231 | 77 | 39% | 3.0 | 14.5% | 7.3% | 7.3% | 2.4% | 4.19 | 4.12 | +11.1 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 66 | 26 | 200 | 856 | 125 | 62 | 21 | 39% | 3.0 | 14.5% | 7.3% | 7.3% | 2.4% | 4.19 | 4.12 | +3.0 | ||
Career Path Comps
What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection
| Profile at Match Age | Next 3 Yrs | Career | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Comp | Age | Role | FIP | K% | BB% | HR/BF | BABIP | FIP | K% | K-BB% | IP | ΔFIP | Low FIP | IP | Match |
| James Naile (OGILVIE) | — | — | 4.50 | 22.1% | 10.0% | 2.9% | — | 5.06 | 20.3% | 9.6% | 404 | +0.56 | — | — | — |
| Edwin Jackson R 2026 · 5.03 FIP | 33 | SP- | 5.03 | 18.7% | 9.5% | 4.2% | .278 | 5.32 | 16.9% | 6.9% | 252 | +0.29 | 3.69 | 521 | 71 |
| Dillon Gee R 2024 · 3.88 FIP | 31 | SP- | 3.88 | 18.0% | 5.9% | 2.8% | .302 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.62 | 380 | 69 |
| Garrett Richards R 2026 · 4.41 FIP | 33 | SP- | 4.41 | 18.6% | 9.6% | 3.0% | .328 | 3.22 | 19.5% | 12.5% | 43 | -1.19 | 2.34 | 577 | 68 |
| Tom Koehler R 2024 · 4.71 FIP | 31 | SP- | 4.71 | 22.4% | 9.0% | 4.3% | .298 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.39 | 474 | 66 |
| Kyle Lohse R 2029 · 4.98 FIP | 36 | SP- | 4.98 | 16.2% | 6.0% | 4.5% | .309 | 5.53 | 14.8% | 8.8% | 59 | +0.55 | 4.98 | 211 | 65 |
| Chris Young R 2029 · 4.67 FIP | 36 | SP- | 4.67 | 16.6% | 8.6% | 3.4% | .209 | 6.29 | 21.1% | 11.4% | 119 | +1.62 | 4.67 | 242 | 64 |
| Mike Pelfrey R 2026 · 5.65 FIP | 33 | SP- | 5.65 | 14.5% | 10.6% | 4.4% | .266 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.70 | 404 | 64 |
| Sam LeCure R 2025 · 4.27 FIP | 32 | SW | 4.27 | 16.6% | 6.5% | 3.2% | .311 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.27 | 171 | 61 |
| Jesse Chavez R 2026 · 5.03 FIP | 33 | SP- | 5.03 | 20.3% | 7.3% | 5.0% | .303 | 3.99 | 22.5% | 16.9% | 190 | -1.04 | 2.03 | 804 | 61 |
| Jerome Williams R 2026 · 4.79 FIP | 33 | SP- | 4.79 | 13.4% | 5.6% | 3.8% | .326 | 5.94 | 11.7% | 5.6% | 74 | +1.15 | 4.79 | 195 | 61 |
| Jason Berken R 2025 · 4.31 FIP | 32 | SW | 4.31 | 11.5% | 8.3% | 2.1% | .308 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.31 | 219 | 59 |
| Austin Bibens-Dirkx R 2026 · 4.94 FIP | 33 | SP- | 4.94 | 17.9% | 7.6% | 4.3% | .322 | 4.80 | 15.9% | 9.5% | 147 | -0.14 | 3.84 | 567 | 56 |
| Ubaldo Jiménez R 2026 · 5.02 FIP | 33 | SP- | 5.02 | 21.5% | 9.0% | 4.7% | .325 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.67 | 469 | 55 |
| Mitch Lively R 2024 · 3.49 FIP | 31 | SP- | 3.49 | 17.0% | 6.4% | 1.8% | .304 | — | — | — | — | — | 2.51 | 158 | 55 |
| Toru Murata R 2024 · 3.55 FIP | 31 | SW | 3.55 | 12.9% | 5.7% | 1.5% | .288 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.55 | 267 | 55 |
| Aníbal Sánchez R 2026 · 5.13 FIP | 33 | SP- | 5.13 | 22.1% | 6.0% | 5.7% | .349 | 3.97 | 20.8% | 13.8% | 356 | -1.16 | 3.49 | 869 | 52 |
| Hector Noesí R 2025 · 4.92 FIP | 32 | SP- | 4.92 | 22.3% | 7.2% | 5.1% | .271 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.21 | 250 | 52 |
| Zach Neal R 2026 · 5.36 FIP | 33 | SP- | 5.36 | 16.1% | 5.7% | 5.3% | .321 | 5.99 | 15.9% | 9.4% | 101 | +0.63 | 4.33 | 732 | 52 |
| Junior Guerra R 2026 · 4.14 FIP | 33 | SP | 4.14 | 22.3% | 9.0% | 3.2% | .309 | 4.22 | 21.2% | 9.1% | 173 | +0.08 | 3.02 | 646 | 51 |
| Roberto Hernandez R 2027 · 4.26 FIP | 34 | SP- | 4.26 | 11.8% | 6.7% | 2.4% | .287 | 4.22 | 13.8% | 6.8% | 86 | -0.04 | 4.22 | 171 | 51 |
Career Comps
Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 327 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).
| Player | Yrs | IP/yr | K% | BB% | HR/9 | ERA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION | 4 | 142 | 20.8% | 10.5% | 1.30 | 4.80 |
| Tom Koehler ('17) | 3 | 146 | 18.1% | 10.2% | 1.24 | 4.62 |
| Ubaldo Jiménez ('17) | 3 | 156 | 20.8% | 9.5% | 1.32 | 5.33 |
| James Kaprielian ('23) | 3 | 105 | 20.5% | 9.6% | 1.26 | 4.58 |
| Yovani Gallardo ('18) | 4 | 132 | 15.4% | 10.2% | 1.18 | 4.97 |
| Félix Hernández ('19) | 5 | 134 | 20.0% | 8.1% | 1.39 | 4.48 |
| Marco Estrada ('19) | 5 | 142 | 19.6% | 8.3% | 1.44 | 4.33 |