James Naile
P
Memphis Redbirds
+0.4
WAR
Age 33
RHP
6'4" / 185 lbs
AAA
peak 0.5 · 2026
ERA6.15
FIP4.37
xFIP5.29
SIERA5.43
K%22.3%
BB%9.3%
K-BB%13.0%
IP67
trajectory · 10 yrs
0.5peak
2026
OFP—35
STUF5050
CMD4040
K†5555
FB Velo
p2392.6
Whiff%
p1014.4%
K%
p108.8%
xwOBA vs
p100.402
CT-0.6
FB-4.3
Career (MLE) + Projections
Park-neutral MLB-equivalent. MiLB translated via MLE factors. FIP-based WAR vs replacement FIP=5.3 (SP) / 4.95 (RP, <80 IP). FIP+ = runs above league-avg FIP · REP = replacement-level bonus.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | G | GS | IP | BF | K | BB | HR | K% | BB% | HR% | ERA | FIP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2015 | 22 | ROK | AZL Athletics | 2 | 0 | 2 | 6 | 1 | 0 | 0 | — | — | — | 0.00 | — | — |
| 2016 | 23 | AAA | Nashville Sounds | 28 | 26 | 157 | 635 | 125 | 37 | 9 | 15.6% | 6.3% | 1.6% | 3.39 | 3.47 | +3.3 |
| 2017 | 24 | AA | Midland RockHounds | 18 | 14 | 74 | 303 | 57 | 18 | 6 | 13.5% | 7.4% | 2.8% | 3.30 | 4.44 | +0.5 |
| 2018 | 25 | AAA | Nashville Sounds | 26 | 26 | 151 | 646 | 84 | 42 | 13 | 11.4% | 6.8% | 2.3% | 4.54 | 4.25 | +1.8 |
| 2019 | 26 | AAA | Las Vegas Aviators | 27 | 24 | 141 | 635 | 92 | 50 | 16 | 11.8% | 8.6% | 2.9% | 5.41 | 4.80 | +0.8 |
| 2021 | 28 | AAA | Las Vegas Aviators | 51 | 0 | 62 | 273 | 51 | 13 | 7 | 16.4% | 5.0% | 3.0% | 4.04 | 4.00 | +0.7 |
| 2022 | 29 | MLB | St. Louis Cardinals | 51 | 3 | 82 | 354 | 69 | 23 | 7 | 17.8% | 7.0% | 1.6% | 3.50 | 3.39 | +1.6 |
| 2023 | 30 | MLB | St. Louis Cardinals | 41 | 3 | 74 | 330 | 73 | 30 | 7 | 19.7% | 9.4% | 2.4% | 4.72 | 3.94 | +1.0 |
| ▸ 2026 Season | ||||||||||||||||
| 2026 | 33 | MLB | STL | 12 | 12 | 67 | 282 | 62 | 28 | 8 | 22.1% | 10.0% | 2.9% | 6.27 | 4.49 | +0.4 |
| ▸ 2027+ Projections — Marcel base + age-bracket aging | ||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 34 | MLB | STL | 12 | 12 | 64 | 269 | 58 | 27 | 8 | 21.5% | 10.2% | 3.0% | 5.27 | 4.61 | +0.3 |
| 2028 | 35 | MLB | STL | 60 | — | 60 | 253 | 53 | 26 | 8 | 20.9% | 10.3% | 3.1% | 4.95 | 4.74 | +0.1 |
| 2029 | 36 | MLB | STL | 56 | — | 56 | 236 | 48 | 25 | 8 | 20.2% | 10.5% | 3.2% | 4.90 | 4.88 | +0.0 |
| ▸ Career (all levels · actual + projected) | ||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | 244 | 96 | 743 | 3182 | 463 | 231 | 74 | 14.5% | 7.3% | 2.3% | 4.19 | 4.07 | +10.4 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 66 | 26 | 200 | 856 | 125 | 62 | 20 | 14.5% | 7.3% | 2.3% | 4.19 | 4.07 | +2.8 | ||
Career Path Comps
What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection
| Profile at Match Age | Next 3 Yrs | Career | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Comp | Age | Role | FIP | K% | BB% | HR/BF | BABIP | FIP | K% | K-BB% | IP | ΔFIP | Low FIP | IP | Match |
| James Naile (OGILVIE) | — | — | 4.49 | 22.1% | 10.0% | 2.9% | — | 4.74 | 20.9% | 10.6% | 180 | +0.25 | — | — | — |
| Manny Acosta R 2028 · 4.09 FIP | 35 | SW | 4.09 | 18.1% | 9.1% | 2.5% | .273 | 3.07 | 23.2% | 9.9% | 44 | -1.02 | 3.07 | 102 | 84 |
| Tony Barnette R 2026 · 3.61 FIP | 33 | SW | 3.61 | 22.6% | 7.1% | 2.8% | .335 | 2.56 | 25.0% | 20.2% | 26 | -1.05 | 2.56 | 144 | 83 |
| Santiago Casilla R 2028 · 3.50 FIP | 35 | SW | 3.50 | 25.4% | 8.6% | 2.6% | .290 | 3.90 | 22.4% | 12.7% | 161 | +0.40 | 3.50 | 219 | 83 |
| Ryan Cook R 2024 · 3.85 FIP | 31 | SW | 3.85 | 25.1% | 10.8% | 2.7% | .280 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.85 | 102 | 83 |
| Steve Cishek R 2026 · 4.16 FIP | 33 | SW | 4.16 | 21.3% | 10.5% | 2.8% | .234 | 3.75 | 23.2% | 12.9% | 155 | -0.41 | 2.89 | 453 | 81 |
| Jean Machi R 2026 · 4.63 FIP | 33 | SW | 4.63 | 16.3% | 8.6% | 3.3% | .276 | 4.24 | 18.5% | 11.9% | 128 | -0.39 | 4.11 | 186 | 81 |
| Ross Ohlendorf R 2026 · 4.98 FIP | 33 | SW | 4.98 | 23.4% | 10.7% | 4.6% | .254 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.33 | 122 | 80 |
| Jose Manuel Lopez R 2025 · 3.63 FIP | 32 | SU | 3.63 | 20.4% | 10.0% | 1.8% | .331 | 6.11 | 17.9% | 3.7% | 41 | +2.48 | 3.45 | 170 | 80 |
| Fernando Nieve R 2026 · 4.26 FIP | 33 | SU | 4.26 | 22.0% | 10.5% | 3.1% | .290 | 2.44 | 26.9% | 22.6% | 89 | -1.82 | 1.94 | 112 | 79 |
| Brad Brach R 2026 · 3.38 FIP | 33 | SW | 3.38 | 24.8% | 12.0% | 1.6% | .356 | 4.65 | 23.0% | 9.8% | 66 | +1.27 | 2.80 | 410 | 79 |
| Hirokazu Sawamura R 2026 · 4.47 FIP | 33 | SW | 4.47 | 26.2% | 11.2% | 3.9% | .263 | 3.98 | 18.1% | 6.8% | 51 | -0.49 | 3.98 | 104 | 78 |
| Clayton Mortensen R 2025 · 4.60 FIP | 32 | SW | 4.60 | 23.2% | 14.2% | 3.0% | .258 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.33 | 221 | 78 |
| Francisco Del Rosario R 2029 · 4.12 FIP | 36 | SW | 4.12 | 16.4% | 10.0% | 2.1% | .267 | 6.46 | 11.9% | -0.6% | 77 | +2.34 | 4.12 | 145 | 78 |
| Brandon Kintzler R 2026 · 3.65 FIP | 33 | SW | 3.65 | 16.3% | 6.5% | 2.0% | .313 | 3.99 | 18.1% | 12.9% | 111 | +0.34 | 2.47 | 332 | 78 |
| Logan Kensing R 2026 · 3.61 FIP | 33 | SU | 3.61 | 17.6% | 8.8% | 1.6% | .270 | 3.06 | 17.9% | 10.0% | 124 | -0.55 | 2.72 | 172 | 78 |
| Cory Gearrin R 2026 · 3.82 FIP | 33 | SW | 3.82 | 19.5% | 10.0% | 2.0% | .303 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.17 | 272 | 77 |
| Yoshihisa Hirano R 2027 · 3.43 FIP | 34 | SW | 3.43 | 22.5% | 7.3% | 2.4% | .242 | 3.91 | 24.6% | 15.2% | 65 | +0.48 | 3.43 | 132 | 77 |
| John Axford R 2026 · 3.91 FIP | 33 | SW | 3.91 | 20.8% | 10.0% | 2.4% | .304 | 3.97 | 22.1% | 11.3% | 76 | +0.06 | 3.28 | 197 | 76 |
| Hector Ambriz R 2025 · 3.55 FIP | 32 | SW | 3.55 | 16.0% | 6.4% | 1.8% | .273 | 6.40 | 10.4% | 2.9% | 91 | +2.85 | 3.55 | 155 | 76 |
| Blake Wood R 2024 · 3.35 FIP | 31 | SW | 3.35 | 25.3% | 9.3% | 2.2% | .364 | — | — | — | — | — | 2.91 | 210 | 76 |
Contract
No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.