Nathan Lukes

RF Toronto Blue Jays
Age 33 L/R 5'11" / 180 lbs MLB Svc 1.843 · Ctrl thru 2031
Overview
MLB40-MANPre-ArbFA 2032
YearAgeLvl / TeamPAAVG/OBP/SLGHRSBwRC+WAR
202430MLBTOR91.303/.384/.447111220.0
202531MLBTOR438.255/.325/.4071221000.6
202632MLBTOR450.277/.330/.3871011000.6
2027PROJ33MLBTOR404.263/.324/.387931011.0
2028PROJ92% MLB34MLBTOR330.252/.311/.3647091-0.1
Last 3 seasons WAR 1.2  ·  Next 2 projected WAR 0.8Projected rows: MLB playing time only, park and league context applied.
ContractESTIMATED
Control thru2031Service1.843First FA2032
2027Pre-Arb$0.8M2028Pre-Arb$0.8M2029Ext$2M2030Ext$4M2031Ext$6M
Skills · percentileStatcast 2024-2026
Whiff%90
Chase%90
xwOBA48
Speed40
Avg EV29
Bat Spd17
Form.274/.327/.391 · rolling true talent (60d window) · proj .261/.320/.386
CompsCorban Joseph (age 32) · Jason Krizan (age 33) · Luis Lopez (age 33)
2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONstats below = full-season projection
showingPROJ
wRC+†vL 91101vR 104
AVG/OBP/SLG.263 / .324 / .387
PA404
HR9
K%15
BB%7
BABIP292
ISO122
MLB%100%
Value2027 · WAR
BAT: +0.3 runs (wOBA-derived runs vs avg)+0BATRUN: +0.3 runs (SB/CS + UBR baserunning)+0RUNFLD: +4.5 runs (Defensive runs vs avg)+4FLDPOS: -4.3 runs (Positional adjustment)-4POSREP: +8.8 runs (Replacement-level credit)+9REPTotal WAR: +1.00+1.0WAR
0.00.51.01.00.027282930313233343536
━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit+$6M ctrl surplus
Tools · Recent Form · Splits · ContractCON 60 / POW 40
Toolsscout grade · Statcast %ile · 2024-2026
CONTACT60
Whiff%
903.3%
xAVG
620.261
POWER40
Barrel%
153.6
Avg EV
2987.5
Bat Spd
1767.8
EYE45
Chase%
9018.7%
SPEED50
Sprint
4027.0
Recent Formrolling true talent ⓘ
K%13%▲▲11% over 107 PA (60d) · proj 15%
BB%6%▼6% over 107 PA (60d) · proj 7%
ISO.116·.103 over 97 AB (60d) · proj .125
HR/BB2.6%·2.3% over 86 BBE (60d) · proj 2.9%
BABIP.297▲.357 over 84 BIP (60d) · proj .291
SLASH.274/.327/.391·proj .261/.320/.386
Platoon Splits2024-2026 · 570 PA
vs LHP
vs RHP
Edge
PA
53
517
—
wRC+
98
106
▶R
wOBA
313
325
▶R
ISO
119
148
▶▶R
BABIP
323
280
◀L
K%
22.6%
11.8%
▶▶R
BB%
11.3%
7.5%
◀◀L
Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)
Status   Pre-Arb
MLB Debut   2023
Service   1.843 yrs.days
Team Control Through   2031
First FA Year   2032
YearStatusSalary Proj WAR Value Surplus
2027Pre-Arb$0.8M+1.0$8M+$7M
2028Pre-Arb$0.8M———
2029Extbeyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2030Extbeyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2031Extbeyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
Totals $0.8M $8M +$7M

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.
basis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral
Methodology▸ how these numbers are built

All seasons translated to park-neutral MLB-equivalent (MLE) and combined per year. 2027 = actual YTD + projected ROS + total. 2028+ via Advanced Marcel + aging curve.

YearAge LvlTeam MLB% PAAB H2B3BHR BBSOHBP SBCS AVGOBPSLGOPS ISOBABIP K%BB% wOBAwRC+ BATRUNFLDPOSREP WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per stint (as recorded, no adjustments)
201622 A+Charlotte Stone Crabs — 9490 19201 3140 11 211237267503 56240 153 226 3 — — — — — —
201622 ALake County Captains — 393342 1032185 37606 148 301379453832 152349 159 364 88 — — — — — —
201723 AAMontgomery Biscuits — 404359 971553 32713 68 270335365700 95323 188 310 69 — — — — — —
201723 A+Charlotte Stone Crabs — 2220 8100 240 12 400455450905 50500 189 410 103 — — — — — —
201824 AAMontgomery Biscuits — 484435 1212936 31936 94 278335400735 122336 196 322 80 — — — — — —
201925 AAADurham Bulls — 295260 57834 26563 73 219298319617 100260 199 277 49 — — — — — —
202127 AAADurham Bulls — 326294 893114 21414 22 303357456813 153335 136 354 98 — — — — — —
202228 AAABuffalo Bisons — 484428 12225111 47897 203 285365425790 140336 1810 354 89 — — — — — —
202329 MLBToronto Blue Jays — 3126 5110 490 00 192300308608 115278 2913 271 68 -1 +0 +0 -3 +1 -0.3
202329 AAABuffalo Bisons — 222202 741615 17253 31 366423530953 163401 118 422 126 — — — — — —
202430 MLBToronto Blue Jays — 9176 23421 1090 10 303384447831 145319 1011 351 122 +2 +0 -1 -3 +2 0.0
202430 AAABuffalo Bisons — 231207 69707 22362 42 333403469871 135378 1610 390 105 — — — — — —
202531 MLBToronto Blue Jays — 438388 9919212 38602 24 255325407732 152273 149 320 100 +0 -1 +2 -5 +9 0.6
202632 MLBToronto Blue Jays — 450408 11315010 25647 11 277330387717 110306 146 316 100 -0 -0 +1 -5 +10 0.6
▸ Career Totals (raw MLB only — historical actual)
MLB Career— — 1010898 24039523 771429 45 267331399730 131292 148 320 103 +3 -1 +2 -16 +22 1.1
▸ Career — adjusted (every ACTUAL line translated to park/league-neutral MLB equivalents)
201622 A+ MLECharlotte Stone Crabs — 9491 15101 2200 11 165183209392 44206 212 173 3 — — — — — —
201622 A MLELake County Captains — 393353 911873 26796 148 258319374693 116309 207 299 88 — — — — — —
201723 AA MLEMontgomery Biscuits — 404370 901442 21873 68 243289319608 76297 225 270 69 — — — — — —
201723 A+ MLECharlotte Stone Crabs — 2220 7100 260 12 350409400809 50434 279 321 103 — — — — — —
201824 AA MLEMontgomery Biscuits — 484445 1162735 211076 94 261303369672 108315 224 287 80 — — — — — —
201925 AAA MLEDurham Bulls — 295267 54733 19663 73 202263285548 82241 226 240 49 — — — — — —
202127 AAA MLEDurham Bulls — 326301 862613 14484 22 286326409735 123313 154 313 98 — — — — — —
202228 AAA MLEBuffalo Bisons — 484446 1162218 291057 203 260315368683 108318 226 300 89 — — — — — —
202329 MLB MLEToronto Blue Jays — 3126 5110 490 00 192300308608 115278 2913 269 68 -1 +0 +0 -3 +1 -0.3
202329 AAA MLEBuffalo Bisons — 222208 671314 11313 31 322365452817 130364 145 354 126 — — — — — —
202430 MLB MLEToronto Blue Jays — 9176 23421 1090 10 303384447831 145319 1011 349 122 +2 +0 -1 -3 +2 0.0
202430 AAA MLEBuffalo Bisons — 231215 63605 14432 42 293342391733 98351 196 324 105 — — — — — —
202531 MLB MLEToronto Blue Jays — 438390 9919212 36602 24 254320405725 151273 148 316 100 +0 -1 +2 -5 +9 0.6
202632 MLB MLEToronto Blue Jays — 450408 11315010 25647 11 277330387717 110306 146 315 100 -0 -0 +1 -5 +10 0.6
201622 A MLE2 teams — 487444 1061974 28996 159 239293340633 101296 206 275 72 — — — — — —
201622 A RAW2 teams — 487432 1222386 40746 159 282351414766 132326 158 337 72 — — — — — —
201723 AA MLE2 teams — 426390 961542 23933 710 246293321614 74312 225 273 71 — — — — — —
201723 AA RAW2 teams — 426379 1051653 34753 710 277341369711 92332 188 315 71 — — — — — —
201824 AA MLEMontgomery Biscuits — 484445 1162735 211076 94 261303369672 108327 224 287 80 — — — — — —
201824 AA RAWMontgomery Biscuits — 484435 1212936 31936 94 278335400735 122336 196 322 80 — — — — — —
201925 AAA MLEDurham Bulls — 295267 54733 19663 73 202263285548 82252 226 240 49 — — — — — —
201925 AAA RAWDurham Bulls — 295260 57834 26563 73 219298319617 100260 199 277 49 — — — — — —
202127 AAA MLEDurham Bulls — 326301 862613 14484 22 286326409735 123325 154 313 98 — — — — — —
202127 AAA RAWDurham Bulls — 326294 893114 21414 22 303357456813 153335 136 354 98 — — — — — —
202228 AAA MLEBuffalo Bisons — 484446 1162218 291057 203 260315368683 108322 226 300 89 — — — — — —
202228 AAA RAWBuffalo Bisons — 484428 12225111 47897 203 285365425790 140336 1810 354 89 — — — — — —
202329 AAA MLE2 teams — 253234 721424 15403 31 308357436793 128356 166 344 119 — — — — — —
202329 AAA RAW2 teams — 253228 791725 21343 31 346409504913 158389 138 404 119 — — — — — —
202430 AAA MLE2 teams — 322291 861026 24522 52 296353405759 110339 167 331 110 — — — — — —
202430 AAA RAW2 teams — 322283 921128 32452 52 325397463860 138361 1410 379 110 — — — — — —
202531 MLB MLEToronto Blue Jays — 438390 9919212 36602 24 254320405725 151271 148 316 100 +0 -1 +2 -5 +9 0.6
202531 MLB RAWToronto Blue Jays — 438388 9919212 38602 24 255325407732 152273 149 320 100 +0 -1 +2 -5 +9 0.6
202632 MLB MLEToronto Blue Jays — 450408 11315010 25647 11 277330387717 110306 146 315 100 -0 -0 +1 -5 +10 0.6
202632 MLB RAWToronto Blue Jays — 450408 11315010 25647 11 277330387717 110306 146 316 100 -0 -0 +1 -5 +10 0.6
201622 A MLE2 teams — 487450 1061974 28996 159 236293336628 100289 206 275 72 — — — — — —
201723 AA MLE2 teams — 426397 961542 23933 710 242293315608 73304 225 273 71 — — — — — —
201824 AA MLEMontgomery Biscuits — 484454 1162735 211076 94 256303361664 106315 224 287 80 — — — — — —
201925 AAA MLEDurham Bulls — 295271 54733 19663 73 199263280543 81241 226 240 49 — — — — — —
202127 AAA MLEDurham Bulls — 326305 862613 14484 22 282326403729 121313 154 313 98 — — — — — —
202228 AAA MLEBuffalo Bisons — 484445 1162218 291057 203 261315369684 108318 226 300 89 — — — — — —
202329 AAA MLE2 teams — 253233 721424 15403 31 309357438795 129353 166 344 119 — — — — — —
202430 AAA MLE2 teams — 322293 861026 24522 52 294353403756 109342 167 331 110 — — — — — —
202531 MLB MLEToronto Blue Jays — 438397 9919212 36602 24 249320398718 149273 148 316 100 — — — — — —
202632 MLB MLEToronto Blue Jays — 450415 11315010 25647 11 272330381710 108306 146 315 100 — — — — — —
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons)
202430 AAA MLE2 teams — 322293 861026 24522 52 294353403756 109342 167 331 110 — — — — — —
202531 MLB MLEToronto Blue Jays — 438397 9919212 36602 24 249320398718 149273 148 316 100 — — — — — —
202632 MLB MLEToronto Blue Jays — 450415 11315010 25647 11 272330381710 108306 146 315 100 — — — — — —
▸ 2027 season
▸ 2027 — full MLE projection (neutral park, full availability)
202733 MLB MLETOR 100% 404368 961619 29624 31 262323386709 124291 157 317 101 +0 +0 +4 -4 +9 1.0
▸ 2027 — real world (MLB)
202733 MLB CTXTOR 100% 404368 961619 29624 31 263324387711 125292 157 318 101 +0 +0 +4 -4 +9 1.0
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (PA × MLB%)
202834 MLB MLETOR 92% 359327 821317 25574 01 251311363674 112282 167 302 91 -4 -0 -1 -4 +8 -0.1
202834 MLB CTXTOR 92% 330301 761217 23533 01 252311364676 113283 167 303 91 -4 -0 -1 -4 +7 -0.1
▸ Career Totals
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career— A+C — 13401199 31651630 10019512 46 264326391718 128290 157 316 89 -1 -2 +2 -19 +29 0.9
/ 162G— A+C — 650582 15425315 49956 23 265329395724 131291 158 316 89 -0 -1 +1 -9 +14 0.5
Career— MLE — 47284311 11222032773 28885351 7441 260314371685 110306 186 300 89 -1 -1 +6 -24 +38 1.9
/ 162G— MLE — 650593 15528410 401177 106 261316373689 111307 186 300 89 -0 -1 +2 -9 +14 0.7