Phil Maton
P
Chicago Cubs
Age 33
RHP
6'2" / 206 lbs
MLB
peak 0.7 · 2026
2026 ROS PROJECTION29 act + 30 ip · rates below = ROS only
wRC+ AGAINSTvL 10090vR 81
ERA3.33
FIP3.50
K%25.6%
BB%9.3%
K-BB%16.4%
ROS IP30
Value2026 · WAR
Runs saved vs league avg · 59 IP
Grades · Statcast · Arsenal · Contract
Statcast Percentiles
FB Velo
p1090.2
Whiff%
p5826.6%
K%
p5923.8%
xwOBA vs
p100.389
SI (19%)
CU (28%)
SL (15%)
FB-0.8 (56%)
Contract
No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.
Career Stats + Projections
Viewactual = stats as recorded (seasons combined) + projected real-world MLB lines · MLE = level/park-neutral translations
Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed
Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | G | GS | IP | BF | K | BB | HR | GS% | IP/G | K% | BB% | K-BB% | HR% | ERA | FIP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2016 | 23 | MIX | 3 levels | 38 | 0 | 52 | 201 | 78 | 11 | 3 | 0% | 1.4 | 27.9% | 5.8% | 22.2% | 1.6% | 1.74 | 2.37 | — |
| 2016 | 23 | MIX | 3 levels | 38 | 0 | 52 | 201 | 78 | 11 | 3 | 0% | 1.4 | 38.8% | 5.5% | 33.3% | 1.5% | 1.74 | 1.47 | — |
| 2017 | 24 | MIX | 2 levels | 69 | 0 | 68 | 284 | 77 | 22 | 11 | 0% | 1.0 | 25.8% | 7.9% | 17.9% | 4.1% | 3.69 | 4.18 | +0.4 |
| 2017 | 24 | MIX | 2 levels | 69 | 0 | 68 | 284 | 77 | 22 | 11 | 0% | 1.0 | 27.1% | 7.7% | 19.4% | 3.9% | 3.69 | 3.90 | +0.7 |
| 2018 | 25 | MIX | 4 levels | 57 | 0 | 60 | 270 | 74 | 25 | 4 | 0% | 1.1 | 25.7% | 10.3% | 15.4% | 1.5% | 3.88 | 3.06 | +1.1 |
| 2018 | 25 | MIX | 4 levels | 57 | 0 | 60 | 270 | 74 | 25 | 4 | 0% | 1.1 | 27.4% | 9.3% | 18.1% | 1.5% | 3.88 | 2.75 | +1.3 |
| 2019 | 26 | MIX | 2 levels | 52 | 0 | 66 | 280 | 80 | 21 | 10 | 0% | 1.3 | 26.6% | 7.7% | 18.9% | 3.7% | 4.64 | 3.87 | +0.6 |
| 2019 | 26 | MIX | 2 levels | 52 | 0 | 66 | 280 | 80 | 21 | 10 | 0% | 1.3 | 28.6% | 7.5% | 21.1% | 3.6% | 4.64 | 3.60 | +0.8 |
| 2020 | 27 | MLB | Cleveland Indians | 23 | 0 | 22 | 96 | 32 | 5 | 1 | 0% | 0.9 | 33.3% | 5.2% | 28.1% | 1.0% | 4.57 | 1.52 | +0.8 |
| 2020 | 27 | MLB | Cleveland Indians | 23 | 0 | 22 | 96 | 32 | 5 | 1 | 0% | 0.9 | 33.3% | 5.2% | 28.1% | 1.0% | 4.57 | 1.44 | +0.8 |
| 2021 | 28 | MLB | Houston Astros | 65 | 1 | 67 | 297 | 85 | 32 | 6 | 2% | 1.0 | 28.6% | 10.8% | 17.8% | 1.9% | 4.72 | 3.09 | +1.2 |
| 2021 | 28 | MLB | Houston Astros | 65 | 1 | 67 | 297 | 85 | 32 | 6 | 2% | 1.0 | 28.6% | 10.8% | 17.8% | 2.0% | 4.72 | 3.16 | +1.2 |
| 2022 | 29 | MLB | Houston Astros | 67 | 0 | 66 | 281 | 73 | 22 | 10 | 0% | 1.0 | 26.0% | 7.8% | 18.1% | 3.4% | 3.84 | 3.74 | +0.7 |
| 2022 | 29 | MLB | Houston Astros | 67 | 0 | 66 | 281 | 73 | 22 | 10 | 0% | 1.0 | 26.0% | 7.8% | 18.1% | 3.6% | 3.84 | 3.86 | +0.6 |
| 2023 | 30 | MIX | 2 levels | 69 | 0 | 67 | 278 | 77 | 23 | 6 | 0% | 1.0 | 27.0% | 8.4% | 18.6% | 2.1% | 2.96 | 3.02 | +1.3 |
| 2023 | 30 | MIX | 2 levels | 69 | 0 | 67 | 278 | 77 | 23 | 6 | 0% | 1.0 | 27.7% | 8.3% | 19.4% | 2.2% | 2.96 | 3.00 | +1.3 |
| 2024 | 31 | MLB | New York Mets | 71 | 0 | 64 | 265 | 60 | 23 | 7 | 0% | 0.9 | 22.6% | 8.7% | 14.0% | 2.7% | 3.66 | 3.74 | +0.7 |
| 2024 | 31 | MLB | New York Mets | 71 | 0 | 64 | 265 | 60 | 23 | 7 | 0% | 0.9 | 22.6% | 8.7% | 14.0% | 2.6% | 3.66 | 3.73 | +0.7 |
| 2025 | 32 | MLB | Texas Rangers | 63 | 0 | 61 | 248 | 81 | 21 | 3 | 0% | 1.0 | 32.7% | 8.5% | 24.2% | 1.2% | 2.79 | 2.06 | +1.8 |
| 2025 | 32 | MLB | Texas Rangers | 63 | 0 | 61 | 248 | 81 | 21 | 3 | 0% | 1.0 | 32.7% | 8.5% | 24.2% | 1.2% | 2.79 | 2.12 | +1.8 |
| ▸ 2026 Season | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2026 | 33 | MLB | Chicago Cubs | 32 | 0 | 29 | 140 | 36 | 15 | 5 | 0% | 0.9 | 23.8% | 11.5% | 12.3% | 3.8% | 5.52 | 4.66 | -0.0 |
| ROS | 33 | MLB | CHC | 28 | 0 | 30 | 125 | 32 | 12 | 3 | 0% | 1.1 | 25.6% | 9.3% | 16.4% | 2.5% | 3.33 | 3.50 | +0.4 |
| ROS | 33 | MLB | CHC | 29 | 0 | 30 | 127 | 32 | 12 | 3 | 0% | 1.0 | 25.6% | 9.3% | 16.4% | 2.5% | 3.33 | 3.50 | +0.4 |
| 2026 TOT | 33 | MLB | CHC | — | — | 59 | 265 | 68 | 27 | 8 | — | — | 25.7% | 10.0% | 15.6% | 3.1% | 4.42 | 4.07 | +0.3 |
| 2026 FULL | 33 | MLB | CHC | — | — | 56 | 238 | 68 | 27 | 8 | — | — | 28.6% | 11.2% | 17.4% | 3.4% | 4.63 | 3.98 | +0.4 |
| ▸ 2027+ Projections WITH CONTEXT · MLB TIME ONLY ⓘ | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 34 | MLB | CHC | 49 | 0 | 51 | 216 | 54 | 21 | 6 | 0% | 1.0 | 24.9% | 9.8% | 15.0% | 2.9% | 4.01 | 4.20 | +0.2 |
| 2028 | 35 | MLB | CHC | 44 | 0 | 46 | 194 | 46 | 20 | 6 | 0% | 1.0 | 23.9% | 10.4% | 13.5% | 3.2% | 4.32 | 4.53 | +0.0 |
| 2029 | 36 | MLB | CHC | 39 | 0 | 41 | 172 | 39 | 19 | 6 | 0% | 1.0 | 22.9% | 11.0% | 11.9% | 3.6% | 4.67 | 4.90 | -0.2 |
| 2027 | 34 | MLB | CHC | 49 | 0 | 51 | 215 | 54 | 21 | 6 | 0% | 1.0 | 24.9% | 9.8% | 15.0% | 2.9% | 4.01 | 4.20 | +0.2 |
| 2028 | 35 | MLB | CHC | 44 | 0 | 46 | 194 | 46 | 20 | 6 | 0% | 1.0 | 23.9% | 10.4% | 13.5% | 3.2% | 4.32 | 4.53 | +0.0 |
| 2029 | 36 | MLB | CHC | 39 | 0 | 41 | 173 | 40 | 19 | 6 | 0% | 1.1 | 22.9% | 11.0% | 11.9% | 3.6% | 4.67 | 4.90 | -0.2 |
| ▸ Career (MLB actual + context projections) | |||||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | 668 | 1 | 667 | 2855 | 742 | 261 | 80 | 0% | 1.0 | 26.0% | 9.1% | 16.8% | 2.8% | 4.10 | 3.60 | +14.1 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 200 | 0 | 200 | 857 | 223 | 78 | 24 | 0% | 1.0 | 26.0% | 9.1% | 16.8% | 2.8% | 4.10 | 3.60 | +4.2 | ||
| Career | — | 606 | 1 | 622 | 2640 | 713 | 226 | 67 | 0% | 1.0 | 27.0% | 8.5% | 18.4% | 2.5% | 3.72 | 3.29 | +15.4 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 195 | 0 | 200 | 849 | 229 | 73 | 21 | 0% | 1.0 | 27.0% | 8.5% | 18.4% | 2.5% | 3.72 | 3.29 | +4.9 | ||
Career Path Comps
What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection
| Profile at Match Age | Next 3 Yrs | Career | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Comp | Age | Role | FIP | K% | BB% | HR/BF | BABIP | FIP | K% | K-BB% | IP | ΔFIP | Low FIP | IP | Match |
| Phil Maton (OGILVIE) | — | — | 3.54 | 26.6% | 8.5% | 2.2% | — | 4.52 | 24.0% | 13.6% | 138 | +0.98 | — | — | — |
| Yoshihisa Hirano R 2027 · 3.32 FIP | 34 | SU | 3.32 | 22.5% | 7.3% | 2.2% | .242 | 3.84 | 24.6% | 15.2% | 65 | +0.52 | 3.32 | 132 | 74 |
| Blake Parker R 2026 · 4.26 FIP | 33 | SU | 4.26 | 25.4% | 6.5% | 4.5% | .290 | 4.17 | 24.9% | 16.5% | 121 | -0.09 | 2.61 | 339 | 69 |
| Steve Cishek R 2026 · 4.03 FIP | 33 | SU | 4.03 | 21.3% | 10.5% | 2.6% | .234 | 3.81 | 23.2% | 12.9% | 155 | -0.22 | 2.80 | 453 | 67 |
| Kazuhisa Makita R 2026 · 4.07 FIP | 33 | SU | 4.07 | 21.6% | 7.9% | 3.3% | .270 | 2.64 | 18.9% | 15.2% | 70 | -1.43 | 2.64 | 132 | 65 |
| Greg Holland R 2026 · 4.38 FIP | 33 | SU | 4.38 | 27.0% | 14.5% | 3.1% | .238 | 3.77 | 23.8% | 15.4% | 84 | -0.61 | 1.97 | 268 | 64 |
| Tony Barnette R 2026 · 3.58 FIP | 33 | SU | 3.58 | 22.6% | 7.1% | 2.7% | .335 | 2.63 | 25.0% | 20.2% | 26 | -0.95 | 2.63 | 144 | 64 |
| Santiago Casilla R 2028 · 3.51 FIP | 35 | SU | 3.51 | 25.4% | 8.6% | 2.7% | .290 | 3.93 | 22.4% | 12.7% | 161 | +0.42 | 3.51 | 219 | 64 |
| Jim Johnson R 2026 · 2.51 FIP | 33 | SU | 2.51 | 25.6% | 7.5% | 1.1% | .309 | 4.25 | 20.1% | 11.9% | 120 | +1.74 | 2.51 | 251 | 64 |
| Pat Neshek R 2027 · 3.65 FIP | 34 | SU | 3.65 | 22.9% | 4.9% | 3.4% | .268 | 2.40 | 24.6% | 21.9% | 134 | -1.25 | 1.48 | 206 | 64 |
| Jared Hughes R 2026 · 3.02 FIP | 33 | SU | 3.02 | 19.8% | 7.0% | 1.3% | .248 | 4.89 | 18.8% | 9.4% | 94 | +1.87 | 3.02 | 358 | 63 |
| Rafael Martín R 2026 · 3.43 FIP | 33 | SU | 3.43 | 20.4% | 5.1% | 2.6% | .305 | 4.60 | 22.5% | 16.5% | 47 | +1.17 | 2.85 | 227 | 63 |
| Luke Gregerson R 2026 · 4.18 FIP | 33 | SU | 4.18 | 26.6% | 6.1% | 4.7% | .299 | 4.59 | 21.1% | 10.6% | 13 | +0.41 | 2.52 | 192 | 63 |
| Ryan Cook R 2024 · 4.04 FIP | 31 | SU | 4.04 | 25.1% | 10.8% | 3.1% | .280 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.04 | 102 | 62 |
| Pedro Strop R 2026 · 2.94 FIP | 33 | SU | 2.94 | 23.7% | 7.5% | 1.6% | .211 | 3.93 | 27.5% | 16.8% | 42 | +0.99 | 2.48 | 277 | 61 |
| Bud Norris R 2026 · 3.52 FIP | 33 | SU | 3.52 | 27.3% | 7.3% | 3.3% | .283 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.52 | 316 | 61 |
| Hirokazu Sawamura R 2026 · 4.40 FIP | 33 | SU | 4.40 | 26.2% | 11.2% | 3.8% | .263 | 3.99 | 18.1% | 6.8% | 51 | -0.41 | 3.99 | 104 | 61 |
| David Hernandez R 2026 · 2.97 FIP | 33 | SU | 2.97 | 25.6% | 6.3% | 2.2% | .240 | 3.77 | 26.8% | 18.2% | 43 | +0.80 | 2.56 | 268 | 61 |
| Carlos Torres R 2026 · 3.52 FIP | 33 | SU | 3.52 | 23.0% | 8.0% | 2.5% | .252 | 4.01 | 18.9% | 10.0% | 186 | +0.49 | 2.78 | 326 | 61 |
| Chad Gaudin R 2026 · 2.66 FIP | 33 | SU | 2.66 | 22.8% | 6.8% | 1.1% | .325 | 3.46 | 21.8% | 13.9% | 58 | +0.80 | 2.02 | 102 | 61 |
| Fernando Nieve R 2026 · 4.17 FIP | 33 | SU | 4.17 | 22.0% | 10.5% | 2.9% | .290 | 2.37 | 26.9% | 22.6% | 89 | -1.80 | 2.08 | 112 | 60 |
Career Comps
Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 327 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).
| Player | Yrs | IP/yr | K% | BB% | HR/9 | ERA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION | 4 | 49 | 24.8% | 9.8% | 1.13 | 4.04 |
| Noé Ramirez ('22) | 5 | 52 | 24.8% | 9.0% | 1.33 | 4.19 |
| Santiago Casilla ('18) | 4 | 52 | 23.5% | 9.6% | 0.96 | 3.49 |
| Cam Bedrosian ('21) | 6 | 45 | 24.5% | 10.0% | 0.97 | 3.68 |
| Colin Poche ('24) | 4 | 52 | 27.0% | 9.2% | 1.34 | 3.63 |
| José Cisnero ('23) | 5 | 42 | 24.8% | 11.3% | 0.94 | 3.84 |
| David Hernandez ('19) | 5 | 54 | 25.0% | 7.9% | 1.14 | 4.10 |