Phil Maton — OGILVIE

Phil Maton P Chicago Cubs

Age 33 RHP 6'2" / 206 lbs MLB peak 0.6 · 2026 ILInjured 60-Day (D60)

2026 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONpark-neutral Marcel · 56 proj IP

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 9890vR 82

ERA3.26

FIP3.42

K%25.2%

BB%9.3%

K-BB%15.9%

ROS IP56

Value2026 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 30 IP

Grades · Statcast · Arsenal · Contract

Scouting Grades

STUF6060

CTRL4545

CMD5555

K†6060

Statcast Percentiles

FB Velo

p1090.2

Whiff%

p5325.7%

p5322.8%

xwOBA vs

p100.389

SI (19%)

CU (29%)

SL (15%)

FB-0.8 (56%)

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2026 so far)
2016	23	MIX MLE	3 levels	38	0	52	201	78	11	3	0%	1.4	27.9%	5.8%	22.2%	1.5%	1.74	2.30	—
2016	23	MIX RAW	3 levels	38	0	52	201	78	11	3	0%	1.4	38.8%	5.5%	33.3%	1.5%	1.74	1.47	—
2017	24	MIX MLE	2 levels	69	0	68	284	77	22	11	0%	1.0	25.8%	7.9%	17.9%	3.8%	3.69	4.00	+0.4
2017	24	MIX RAW	2 levels	69	0	68	284	77	22	11	0%	1.0	27.1%	7.7%	19.4%	3.9%	3.69	3.90	+0.5
2018	25	MIX MLE	4 levels	57	0	60	270	74	25	4	0%	1.1	25.7%	10.3%	15.4%	1.4%	3.88	2.98	+1.1
2018	25	MIX RAW	4 levels	57	0	60	270	74	25	4	0%	1.1	27.4%	9.3%	18.1%	1.5%	3.88	2.75	+1.3
2019	26	MIX MLE	2 levels	52	0	66	280	80	21	10	0%	1.3	26.6%	7.7%	18.9%	3.7%	4.64	3.86	+0.5
2019	26	MIX RAW	2 levels	52	0	66	280	80	21	10	0%	1.3	28.6%	7.5%	21.1%	3.6%	4.64	3.60	+0.7
2020	27	MLB MLE	Cleveland Indians	23	0	22	96	32	5	1	0%	0.9	33.3%	5.2%	28.1%	1.0%	4.57	1.52	+0.8
2020	27	MLB RAW	Cleveland Indians	23	0	22	96	32	5	1	0%	0.9	33.3%	5.2%	28.1%	1.0%	4.57	1.44	+0.8
2021	28	MLB MLE	Houston Astros	65	1	67	297	85	32	6	2%	1.0	28.6%	10.8%	17.8%	2.1%	4.72	3.19	+1.1
2021	28	MLB RAW	Houston Astros	65	1	67	297	85	32	6	2%	1.0	28.6%	10.8%	17.8%	2.0%	4.72	3.16	+1.1
2022	29	MLB MLE	Houston Astros	67	0	66	281	73	22	10	0%	1.0	26.0%	7.8%	18.1%	3.7%	3.84	3.91	+0.5
2022	29	MLB RAW	Houston Astros	67	0	66	281	73	22	10	0%	1.0	26.0%	7.8%	18.1%	3.6%	3.84	3.86	+0.5
2023	30	MIX MLE	2 levels	69	0	67	278	77	23	6	0%	1.0	27.0%	8.4%	18.6%	2.3%	2.96	3.12	+1.1
2023	30	MIX MLE	2 levels	69	0	67	278	77	23	6	0%	1.0	27.0%	8.4%	18.6%	2.3%	2.96	3.12	+1.1
2023	30	MIX RAW	2 levels	69	0	67	278	77	23	6	0%	1.0	27.7%	8.3%	19.4%	2.2%	2.96	3.00	+1.2
2024	31	MLB MLE	New York Mets	71	0	64	265	60	23	7	0%	0.9	22.6%	8.7%	14.0%	2.6%	3.66	3.74	+0.6
2024	31	MLB MLE	New York Mets	71	0	64	265	60	23	7	0%	0.9	22.6%	8.7%	14.0%	2.6%	3.66	3.74	+0.6
2024	31	MLB RAW	New York Mets	71	0	64	265	60	23	7	0%	0.9	22.6%	8.7%	14.0%	2.6%	3.66	3.73	+0.6
2025	32	MLB MLE	Texas Rangers	63	0	61	248	81	21	3	0%	1.0	32.7%	8.5%	24.2%	1.1%	2.79	2.03	+1.9
2025	32	MLB MLE	Texas Rangers	63	0	61	248	81	21	3	0%	1.0	32.7%	8.5%	24.2%	1.1%	2.79	2.03	+1.9
2025	32	MLB RAW	Texas Rangers	63	0	61	248	81	21	3	0%	1.0	32.7%	8.5%	24.2%	1.2%	2.79	2.12	+1.8
▸ Career totals (raw MLB only — as recorded)
MLB Career	—			509	1	500	2154	570	190	58	0%	1.0	26.5%	8.8%	17.6%	2.7%	4.10	3.47	+6.4
▸ 2026 season
YTD	33	MLB MLE	Chicago Cubs	33	0	30	146	36	16	5	0%	0.9	22.8%	11.8%	11.0%	3.8%	5.64	4.76	-0.1
YTD	33	MLB MLE	Chicago Cubs	33	0	30	146	36	16	5	0%	0.9	22.8%	11.8%	11.0%	3.8%	5.64	4.76	-0.1
▸ 2026 season — so far · projected rest · full
2026	33	AAA RAW	CHC	2	0	3	10	5	0	0	0%	1.4	50.0%	0.0%	50.0%	0.0%	0.00	-1.12	—
2026	33	MLB RAW	CHC	31	0	28	136	31	16	5	0%	0.9	22.8%	11.8%	11.0%	3.7%	6.18	4.68	-0.0
SO FAR	33	MLB RAW	CHC	31	0	28	136	31	16	5	0%	0.9	22.8%	11.8%	11.0%	3.7%	6.18	4.68	-0.0
ROS	33	MLB MLE	CHC	—	—	0	—	—	—	—	—	—	25.2%	9.3%	15.9%	2.3%	3.26	3.42	—
ROS	33	MLB CTX	CHC	—	—	0	—	—	—	—	—	—	25.2%	9.3%	15.9%	2.3%	3.26	3.42	—
2026 TOT	33	MLB MLE	CHC	—	—	30	146	36	16	5	—	—	24.7%	11.0%	13.7%	3.4%	5.64	4.76	-0.1
FULL	33	MLB A+C	CHC	—	—	28	117	36	16	5	—	—	30.8%	13.7%	17.1%	4.3%	6.18	4.58	-0.1
▸ Career projection (2027+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2027	34	MLB MLE	CHC	49	0	51	216	53	21	6	0%	1.0	24.5%	9.9%	14.6%	2.8%	4.04	4.22	+0.2
2028	35	MLB MLE	CHC	44	0	46	194	46	20	6	0%	1.0	23.6%	10.5%	13.1%	3.2%	4.35	4.56	-0.0
2029	36	MLB MLE	CHC	39	0	41	172	39	19	6	0%	1.0	22.6%	11.1%	11.5%	3.5%	4.69	4.92	-0.2
2027	34	MLB CTX	CHC	49	0	51	215	53	21	6	0%	1.0	24.5%	9.9%	14.6%	2.8%	4.04	4.22	+0.2
2028	35	MLB CTX	CHC	44	0	46	194	46	20	6	0%	1.0	23.6%	10.5%	13.1%	3.2%	4.35	4.56	-0.0
2029	36	MLB CTX	CHC	39	0	41	173	39	19	6	0%	1.1	22.6%	11.1%	11.5%	3.5%	4.69	4.92	-0.2
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		640	1	638	2736	708	251	76	0%	1.0	25.9%	9.2%	16.7%	2.8%	4.15	3.61	+7.1
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		201	0	200	858	222	79	24	0%	1.0	25.9%	9.2%	16.7%	2.8%	4.15	3.61	+2.2
Career	—	MLE		607	1	623	2646	713	227	67	0%	1.0	26.9%	8.6%	18.4%	2.5%	3.73	3.30	+6.4
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		195	0	200	849	229	73	21	0%	1.0	26.9%	8.6%	18.4%	2.5%	3.73	3.30	+2.0

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Phil Maton (OGILVIE)	—	—	3.53	26.6%	8.5%	2.2%	—	4.54	23.6%	13.2%	138	+1.01	—	—	—
Steve Cishek R 2019 · 4.12 FIP	33	SU	4.12	21.3%	10.5%	2.7%	.234	3.81	23.2%	12.9%	155	-0.31	2.86	453	74
Blake Parker R 2018 · 4.12 FIP	33	SU	4.12	25.4%	6.5%	4.3%	.290	4.12	24.9%	16.5%	121	+0.00	2.52	339	74
Yoshihisa Hirano R 2018 · 3.45 FIP	34	SU	3.45	22.5%	7.3%	2.4%	.242	3.97	24.6%	15.2%	65	+0.52	3.45	132	74
Jared Hughes R 2018 · 3.00 FIP	33	SU	3.00	19.8%	7.0%	1.2%	.248	4.82	18.8%	9.4%	94	+1.82	3.00	358	70
Greg Holland R 2019 · 4.57 FIP	33	SU	4.57	27.0%	14.5%	3.5%	.238	3.79	23.8%	15.4%	84	-0.78	1.97	268	69
Tony Barnette R 2017 · 3.56 FIP	33	SU	3.56	22.6%	7.1%	2.7%	.335	2.61	25.0%	20.2%	26	-0.95	2.61	144	67
Jim Johnson R 2016 · 2.56 FIP	33	SU	2.56	25.6%	7.5%	1.2%	.309	4.20	20.1%	11.9%	120	+1.64	2.56	251	67
Pedro Strop R 2018 · 2.99 FIP	33	SU	2.99	23.7%	7.5%	1.7%	.211	4.05	27.5%	16.8%	42	+1.06	2.56	277	67
David Hernandez R 2018 · 2.94 FIP	33	SU	2.94	25.6%	6.3%	2.2%	.240	3.72	26.8%	18.2%	43	+0.78	2.60	268	66
Brad Brach R 2019 · 3.43 FIP	33	SU	3.43	24.8%	12.0%	1.7%	.356	4.65	23.0%	9.8%	66	+1.22	2.69	410	66
Brandon Kintzler R 2018 · 3.62 FIP	33	SU	3.62	16.3%	6.5%	2.0%	.313	3.93	18.1%	12.9%	111	+0.31	2.47	332	66
Bud Norris R 2018 · 3.65 FIP	33	SU	3.65	27.3%	7.3%	3.5%	.283	—	—	—	—	—	3.51	316	66
Kazuhisa Makita R 2018 · 3.93 FIP	33	SU	3.93	21.6%	7.9%	3.0%	.270	2.81	18.9%	15.2%	70	-1.12	2.81	132	65
Luke Gregerson R 2017 · 4.41 FIP	33	SU	4.41	26.6%	6.1%	5.1%	.299	4.73	21.1%	10.6%	13	+0.32	2.62	192	65
Tyler Clippard R 2018 · 4.11 FIP	33	SU	4.11	29.8%	8.1%	4.6%	.268	3.41	24.9%	18.5%	113	-0.70	2.49	417	65
Nick Vincent R 2019 · 3.39 FIP	33	SU	3.39	24.4%	3.9%	3.4%	.287	3.99	23.6%	17.6%	118	+0.60	2.52	434	64
Rafael Martín R 2017 · 3.40 FIP	33	SU	3.40	20.4%	5.1%	2.5%	.305	4.71	22.5%	16.5%	47	+1.31	2.94	227	64
Santiago Casilla R 2015 · 3.50 FIP	35	SU	3.50	25.4%	8.6%	2.7%	.290	3.97	22.4%	12.7%	161	+0.47	3.50	219	64
Carlos Torres R 2016 · 3.40 FIP	33	SU	3.40	23.0%	8.0%	2.2%	.252	3.99	18.9%	10.0%	186	+0.59	2.89	326	63
Fernando Salas R 2018 · 3.99 FIP	33	SU	3.99	17.6%	5.3%	3.1%	.278	4.28	20.8%	15.5%	52	+0.29	2.71	288	63

Career Comps

Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 133 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	0.9	47	24.5%	9.9%	1.12	4.07
Noé Ramirez ('22)	1.3	52	24.8%	9.0%	1.33	4.19
José Cisnero ('23)	1.1	42	24.8%	11.3%	0.94	3.84
Cam Bedrosian ('21)	1.3	45	24.5%	10.0%	0.97	3.68
Colin Poche ('24)	1.0	52	27.0%	9.2%	1.34	3.63
José Ruiz ('24)	1.3	52	22.2%	10.4%	1.41	4.41
Robert Stephenson ('23)	1.7	57	26.2%	9.9%	1.39	4.33