Phil Maton
P
Chicago Cubs
+0.7
WAR
Age 33
RHP
6'2" / 206 lbs
MLB
Svc 9.0 · Ctrl thru 2028
peak 0.7 · 2026
ERA3.33
FIP3.45
xFIP6.87
SIERA5.01
K%27.9%
BB%8.7%
K-BB%19.2%
IP56
trajectory · 10 yrs
0.7peak
2026
K†5555
FB Velo
p1089.6
Whiff%
p9036.2%
K%
p9032.5%
xwOBA vs
p900.264
SI (7%)
CU (32%)
SL (16%)
FB-0.8 (52%)
Career (MLE) + Projections
Park-neutral MLB-equivalent. MiLB translated via MLE factors. FIP-based WAR vs replacement FIP=5.3 (SP) / 4.95 (RP, <80 IP). FIP+ = runs above league-avg FIP · REP = replacement-level bonus.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | G | GS | IP | BF | K | BB | HR | K% | BB% | HR% | ERA | FIP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2016 | 23 | AAA | El Paso Chihuahuas | 38 | 0 | 52 | 201 | 78 | 11 | 3 | 27.9% | 5.8% | 1.5% | 1.74 | 2.31 | +1.5 |
| 2017 | 24 | MLB | San Diego Padres | 69 | 0 | 68 | 284 | 77 | 22 | 11 | 25.8% | 7.9% | 4.1% | 3.69 | 4.19 | +0.6 |
| 2018 | 25 | MLB | San Diego Padres | 57 | 0 | 60 | 270 | 74 | 25 | 4 | 25.7% | 10.3% | 1.4% | 3.88 | 2.99 | +1.3 |
| 2019 | 26 | MLB | Cleveland Indians | 52 | 0 | 66 | 280 | 80 | 21 | 10 | 26.6% | 7.7% | 3.7% | 4.64 | 3.88 | +0.8 |
| 2020 | 27 | MLB | Cleveland Indians | 23 | 0 | 22 | 96 | 32 | 5 | 1 | 33.3% | 5.2% | 1.1% | 4.57 | 1.52 | +0.8 |
| 2021 | 28 | MLB | Houston Astros | 65 | 1 | 67 | 297 | 85 | 32 | 6 | 28.6% | 10.8% | 2.0% | 4.72 | 3.12 | +1.4 |
| 2022 | 29 | MLB | Houston Astros | 67 | 0 | 66 | 281 | 73 | 22 | 10 | 26.0% | 7.8% | 3.5% | 3.84 | 3.80 | +0.9 |
| 2023 | 30 | MLB | Houston Astros | 69 | 0 | 67 | 278 | 77 | 23 | 6 | 27.0% | 8.4% | 2.3% | 2.96 | 3.17 | +1.4 |
| 2024 | 31 | MLB | New York Mets | 71 | 0 | 64 | 265 | 60 | 23 | 7 | 22.6% | 8.7% | 2.6% | 3.66 | 3.74 | +0.9 |
| 2025 | 32 | MLB | Texas Rangers | 63 | 0 | 61 | 248 | 81 | 21 | 3 | 32.7% | 8.5% | 1.2% | 2.79 | 2.10 | +2.0 |
| ▸ 2026 Season | ||||||||||||||||
| 2026 | 33 | MLB | Chicago Cubs | 5 | 0 | 4 | 24 | 5 | 4 | 1 | — | — | — | 13.50 | — | — |
| ROS | 33 | MLB | CHC | 52 | — | 52 | 221 | 53 | 19 | 5 | 23.9% | 8.7% | 2.3% | 3.22 | 3.81 | +0.7 |
| 2026 Total | 33 | MLB | CHC | — | — | 56 | 245 | 58 | 23 | 6 | 23.6% | 9.5% | 2.5% | 3.95 | 3.54 | +0.9 |
| ▸ 2027+ Projections — Marcel base + age-bracket aging | ||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 34 | MLB | CHC | 54 | — | 54 | 226 | 52 | 21 | 6 | 22.8% | 9.4% | 2.5% | 3.80 | 4.09 | +0.5 |
| 2028 | 35 | MLB | CHC | 50 | — | 50 | 213 | 47 | 20 | 5 | 22.1% | 9.6% | 2.6% | 4.06 | 4.24 | +0.4 |
| 2029 | 36 | MLB | CHC | 47 | — | 47 | 199 | 42 | 20 | 5 | 21.3% | 9.8% | 2.7% | 4.26 | 4.40 | +0.3 |
| 2030 | 37 | MLB | CHC | 44 | — | 44 | 185 | 38 | 19 | 5 | 20.5% | 10.1% | 2.8% | 4.45 | 4.58 | +0.2 |
| 2031 | 38 | MLB | CHC | 40 | — | 40 | 170 | 33 | 18 | 5 | 19.7% | 10.4% | 3.0% | 4.64 | 4.76 | +0.1 |
| ▸ Career (all levels · actual + projected) | ||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | 579 | 1 | 597 | 2524 | 684 | 214 | 63 | 27.1% | 8.5% | 2.5% | 3.70 | 3.26 | +13.8 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 194 | 0 | 200 | 846 | 229 | 72 | 21 | 27.1% | 8.5% | 2.5% | 3.70 | 3.26 | +4.6 | ||
Career Path Comps
What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection
| Profile at Match Age | Next 3 Yrs | Career | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Comp | Age | Role | FIP | K% | BB% | HR/BF | BABIP | FIP | K% | K-BB% | IP | ΔFIP | Low FIP | IP | Match |
| Phil Maton (OGILVIE) | — | — | 3.81 | 23.9% | 8.7% | 2.3% | — | 4.24 | 22.1% | 12.5% | 151 | +0.43 | — | — | — |
| Yoshihisa Hirano R 2027 · 3.43 FIP | 34 | SW | 3.43 | 22.5% | 7.3% | 2.4% | .242 | 3.91 | 24.6% | 15.2% | 65 | +0.48 | 3.43 | 132 | 74 |
| Blake Parker R 2026 · 4.18 FIP | 33 | SW | 4.18 | 25.4% | 6.5% | 4.4% | .290 | 3.97 | 24.9% | 16.5% | 121 | -0.21 | 2.41 | 339 | 68 |
| Steve Cishek R 2026 · 4.16 FIP | 33 | SW | 4.16 | 21.3% | 10.5% | 2.8% | .234 | 3.75 | 23.2% | 12.9% | 155 | -0.41 | 2.89 | 453 | 68 |
| Kazuhisa Makita R 2026 · 3.95 FIP | 33 | SW | 3.95 | 21.6% | 7.9% | 3.0% | .270 | 2.74 | 18.9% | 15.2% | 70 | -1.21 | 2.74 | 132 | 67 |
| Rafael Martín R 2026 · 3.40 FIP | 33 | SW | 3.40 | 20.4% | 5.1% | 2.5% | .305 | 4.70 | 22.5% | 16.5% | 47 | +1.30 | 2.89 | 227 | 65 |
| Jared Hughes R 2026 · 2.96 FIP | 33 | SW | 2.96 | 19.8% | 7.0% | 1.2% | .248 | 4.67 | 18.8% | 9.4% | 94 | +1.71 | 2.96 | 358 | 65 |
| Pat Neshek R 2027 · 3.63 FIP | 34 | SW | 3.63 | 22.9% | 4.9% | 3.3% | .268 | 2.45 | 24.6% | 21.9% | 134 | -1.18 | 1.56 | 206 | 64 |
| Tony Barnette R 2026 · 3.61 FIP | 33 | SW | 3.61 | 22.6% | 7.1% | 2.8% | .335 | 2.56 | 25.0% | 20.2% | 26 | -1.05 | 2.56 | 144 | 64 |
| Brandon Kintzler R 2026 · 3.65 FIP | 33 | SW | 3.65 | 16.3% | 6.5% | 2.0% | .313 | 3.99 | 18.1% | 12.9% | 111 | +0.34 | 2.47 | 332 | 63 |
| Santiago Casilla R 2028 · 3.50 FIP | 35 | SW | 3.50 | 25.4% | 8.6% | 2.6% | .290 | 3.90 | 22.4% | 12.7% | 161 | +0.40 | 3.50 | 219 | 63 |
| Carlos Carrasco R 2026 · 3.44 FIP | 33 | SW | 3.44 | 29.3% | 9.6% | 2.9% | .288 | 4.25 | 20.8% | 13.5% | 296 | +0.81 | 2.64 | 1,424 | 62 |
| Tim Lincecum R 2025 · 4.86 FIP | 32 | SW | 4.86 | 17.9% | 10.4% | 3.5% | .351 | 5.87 | 14.4% | -1.1% | 13 | +1.01 | 4.19 | 166 | 62 |
| Javy Guerra R 2026 · 3.70 FIP | 33 | SW | 3.70 | 19.9% | 4.9% | 3.0% | .277 | 4.48 | 18.6% | 8.6% | 16 | +0.78 | 3.01 | 260 | 62 |
| Peter Moylan R 2029 · 3.11 FIP | 36 | SU | 3.11 | 18.4% | 8.2% | 0.9% | .259 | 3.86 | 18.2% | 9.1% | 145 | +0.75 | 3.11 | 174 | 61 |
| Pedro Strop R 2026 · 3.02 FIP | 33 | SW | 3.02 | 23.7% | 7.5% | 1.8% | .211 | 4.10 | 27.5% | 16.8% | 42 | +1.08 | 2.58 | 277 | 61 |
| Corey Kluber R 2026 · 3.65 FIP | 33 | SU | 3.65 | 22.6% | 8.9% | 2.4% | .360 | 3.46 | 21.4% | 16.2% | 244 | -0.19 | 2.39 | 1,190 | 61 |
| Nick Vincent R 2026 · 3.24 FIP | 33 | SW | 3.24 | 24.4% | 3.9% | 3.1% | .287 | 4.00 | 23.6% | 17.6% | 118 | +0.76 | 2.48 | 434 | 61 |
| Ryan Cook R 2024 · 3.85 FIP | 31 | SW | 3.85 | 25.1% | 10.8% | 2.7% | .280 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.85 | 102 | 60 |
| David Hernandez R 2026 · 2.86 FIP | 33 | SW | 2.86 | 25.6% | 6.3% | 2.1% | .240 | 3.85 | 26.8% | 18.2% | 43 | +0.99 | 2.56 | 268 | 60 |
| Luke Gregerson R 2026 · 4.33 FIP | 33 | SW | 4.33 | 26.6% | 6.1% | 4.9% | .299 | 4.71 | 21.1% | 10.6% | 13 | +0.38 | 2.51 | 192 | 60 |
Contract
ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)
Status FA
MLB Debut 2017
Service 9.000 yrs.days
Team Control Through 2028
First FA Year 2029
DEF 10%
| Year | Status | Salary | Proj WAR | Value | Surplus |
| 2026 | Ext / FA-deal | $6M | +0.7 | $3M | -$3M |
| 2027 | Ext / FA-deal | $6M | +0.5 | $2M | -$4M |
| 2028 | Ext / FA-deal | $8M | +0.4 | $2M | -$7M |
| Totals | $20M | $7M | -$13M | ||