Dakota Chalmers
P
Reno Aces
Age 29
RHP
6'3" / 175 lbs
AAA
2026 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONpark-neutral Marcel · 15 proj IP
wRC+ AGAINSTvL 124115vR 106
ERA4.65
FIP4.65
K%24.5%
BB%13.5%
K-BB%11.0%
ROS IP15
Value2026 · WAR
Runs saved vs league avg · 15 IP
Grades · Contract
Contract
No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.
Career Stats + Projections
Viewactual = stats as recorded (seasons combined) + projected real-world MLB lines · MLE = level/park-neutral translations
Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed
Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | G | GS | IP | BF | K | BB | HR | GS% | IP/G | K% | BB% | K-BB% | HR% | ERA | FIP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2015 | 18 | ROK | AZL Athletics | 11 | 11 | 20 | 92 | 18 | 17 | 0 | 100% | 1.8 | 13.3% | 23.1% | -9.8% | 0.0% | 2.66 | 4.90 | — |
| 2015 | 18 | ROK | AZL Athletics | 11 | 11 | 20 | 92 | 18 | 17 | 0 | 100% | 1.8 | 19.6% | 18.5% | 1.1% | 0.0% | 2.66 | 3.84 | — |
| 2017 | 20 | A | Beloit Snappers | 10 | 5 | 29 | 131 | 47 | 29 | 1 | 50% | 2.9 | 26.5% | 26.1% | 0.4% | 0.9% | 4.34 | 4.64 | — |
| 2017 | 20 | A | Beloit Snappers | 10 | 5 | 29 | 131 | 47 | 29 | 1 | 50% | 2.9 | 35.9% | 22.1% | 13.7% | 0.8% | 4.34 | 3.31 | — |
| 2018 | 21 | A | Beloit Snappers | 2 | 1 | 5 | 28 | 10 | 8 | 0 | 50% | 2.5 | 35.7% | 28.6% | 7.1% | 0.0% | 0.00 | 3.70 | — |
| 2018 | 21 | A | Beloit Snappers | 2 | 1 | 5 | 28 | 10 | 8 | 0 | 50% | 2.5 | 35.7% | 28.6% | 7.1% | 0.0% | 0.00 | 3.90 | — |
| 2019 | 22 | MIX | 2 levels | 9 | 9 | 35 | 142 | 48 | 23 | 0 | 100% | 3.9 | 24.8% | 19.2% | 5.6% | 0.0% | 3.63 | 3.43 | — |
| 2019 | 22 | MIX | 2 levels | 9 | 9 | 35 | 142 | 48 | 23 | 0 | 100% | 3.9 | 33.8% | 16.2% | 17.6% | 0.0% | 3.63 | 2.32 | — |
| 2021 | 24 | MIX | 2 levels | 21 | 17 | 71 | 325 | 78 | 51 | 14 | 81% | 3.4 | 19.5% | 17.4% | 2.1% | 4.8% | 6.06 | 6.31 | — |
| 2021 | 24 | MIX | 2 levels | 21 | 17 | 71 | 325 | 78 | 51 | 14 | 81% | 3.4 | 24.0% | 15.7% | 8.3% | 4.3% | 6.06 | 5.61 | — |
| 2022 | 25 | AAA | Oklahoma City Dodgers | 13 | 0 | 13 | 74 | 15 | 19 | 1 | 0% | 1.0 | 17.8% | 27.0% | -9.1% | 1.5% | 8.31 | 5.83 | — |
| 2022 | 25 | AAA | Oklahoma City Dodgers | 13 | 0 | 13 | 74 | 15 | 19 | 1 | 0% | 1.0 | 20.3% | 25.7% | -5.4% | 1.4% | 8.31 | 6.18 | — |
| 2024 | 27 | AAA | Reno Aces | 25 | 0 | 26 | 138 | 44 | 34 | 2 | 0% | 1.1 | 28.1% | 25.9% | 2.2% | 1.3% | 9.57 | 4.71 | — |
| 2024 | 27 | AAA | Reno Aces | 25 | 0 | 26 | 138 | 44 | 34 | 2 | 0% | 1.1 | 31.9% | 24.6% | 7.2% | 1.4% | 9.57 | 4.62 | — |
| ▸ 2026 Season | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2026 | 29 | MLB | ARI | 15 | 0 | 15 | 65 | 16 | 9 | 2 | 0% | 1.0 | 24.5% | 13.5% | 11.0% | 2.8% | 4.65 | 4.65 | -0.0 |
| ▸ 2027+ Projections WITH CONTEXT · MLB TIME ONLY ⓘ | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 30 | MLB | ARI | 19 | 0 | 20 | 84 | 20 | 11 | 3 | 0% | 1.1 | 24.1% | 13.4% | 10.7% | 3.0% | 4.72 | 4.79 | -0.1 |
| 2027 | 30 | MLB | ARI | 7 | 0 | 7 | 30 | 7 | 4 | 1 | 0% | 1.0 | 24.1% | 13.4% | 10.7% | 3.0% | 4.72 | 4.79 | -0.0 |
| ▸ Career (MLB actual + context projections) | |||||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | 7 | 0 | 7 | 31 | 7 | 4 | 1 | 0% | 1.1 | 24.1% | 13.4% | 10.7% | 3.0% | 4.72 | 4.41 | +0.0 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 190 | 0 | 200 | 844 | 190 | 109 | 27 | 0% | 1.1 | 24.1% | 13.4% | 10.7% | 3.0% | 4.72 | 4.41 | +2.3 | ||
| Career | — | 91 | 43 | 200 | 930 | 208 | 203 | 20 | 47% | 2.2 | 22.3% | 21.8% | 0.5% | 2.1% | 5.50 | 5.14 | +0.6 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 91 | 43 | 200 | 932 | 208 | 203 | 20 | 47% | 2.2 | 22.3% | 21.8% | 0.5% | 2.1% | 5.50 | 5.14 | +0.6 | ||
Career Path Comps
What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection
| Profile at Match Age | Next 3 Yrs | Career | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Comp | Age | Role | FIP | K% | BB% | HR/BF | BABIP | FIP | K% | K-BB% | IP | ΔFIP | Low FIP | IP | Match |
| Dakota Chalmers (OGILVIE) | — | — | 4.65 | 24.5% | 13.5% | 2.8% | — | 4.79 | 24.1% | 10.7% | 20 | +0.14 | — | — | — |
| Carlos Frías R 2026 · 4.59 FIP | 29 | SP- | 4.59 | 16.9% | 11.1% | 2.8% | .369 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.64 | 204 | 68 |
| André Rienzo R 2026 · 4.33 FIP | 29 | SW | 4.33 | 18.9% | 15.6% | 1.5% | .301 | 5.30 | 17.9% | 6.1% | 29 | +0.97 | 3.58 | 200 | 67 |
| Esmil Rogers R 2026 · 3.51 FIP | 29 | SW | 3.51 | 18.5% | 8.9% | 1.6% | .348 | 2.88 | 21.7% | 17.9% | 40 | -0.63 | 2.88 | 199 | 67 |
| Steve Johnson R 2026 · 4.30 FIP | 29 | SW | 4.30 | 20.3% | 8.9% | 3.2% | .321 | — | — | — | — | — | 2.17 | 152 | 65 |
| Dinelson Lamet R 2026 · 3.82 FIP | 29 | SW | 3.82 | 27.3% | 10.5% | 3.1% | .339 | 4.62 | 20.9% | 7.7% | 176 | +0.80 | 2.21 | 778 | 64 |
| Bud Norris R 2027 · 4.90 FIP | 30 | SW | 4.90 | 18.8% | 8.2% | 4.3% | .327 | 3.85 | 24.2% | 15.5% | 233 | -1.05 | 3.52 | 316 | 64 |
| Edgar Alberto Garcia R 2026 · 3.84 FIP | 29 | SP- | 3.84 | 17.3% | 10.9% | 1.5% | .305 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.84 | 272 | 63 |
| Lisalverto Bonilla R 2026 · 4.88 FIP | 29 | SP- | 4.88 | 15.8% | 12.6% | 2.8% | .265 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.25 | 221 | 62 |
| Mayckol Guaipe R 2025 · 3.74 FIP | 28 | SW | 3.74 | 26.0% | 7.6% | 3.4% | .432 | — | — | — | — | — | 1.88 | 136 | 62 |
| Tim Dillard R 2029 · 3.70 FIP | 32 | SW | 3.70 | 15.9% | 7.7% | 1.8% | .330 | 3.83 | 16.7% | 8.1% | 144 | +0.13 | 3.15 | 352 | 62 |
| Dustin Molleken R 2027 · 3.61 FIP | 30 | SU | 3.61 | 20.4% | 11.7% | 1.4% | .287 | 4.00 | 20.6% | 8.4% | 77 | +0.39 | 3.35 | 129 | 62 |
| Aldo Montes R 2026 · 4.41 FIP | 29 | SW | 4.41 | 18.2% | 10.6% | 2.8% | .336 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.41 | 210 | 61 |
| David Lebron R 2024 · 5.07 FIP | 27 | SU | 5.07 | 26.7% | 14.7% | 4.3% | .278 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.18 | 144 | 61 |
| Diego Moreno R 2026 · 3.76 FIP | 29 | SU | 3.76 | 21.0% | 8.2% | 2.5% | .347 | 2.99 | 17.8% | 11.9% | 54 | -0.77 | 2.22 | 187 | 61 |
| Yoanner Negrin R 2028 · 4.02 FIP | 31 | SW | 4.02 | 15.1% | 7.5% | 2.3% | .256 | 3.39 | 15.0% | 8.5% | 270 | -0.63 | 3.19 | 485 | 60 |
| Nathan Eovaldi R 2026 · 5.49 FIP | 29 | SP- | 5.49 | 23.2% | 11.6% | 5.2% | .309 | 3.24 | 24.6% | 20.4% | 340 | -2.25 | 2.49 | 1,354 | 60 |
| Alex Powers R 2026 · 4.01 FIP | 29 | SU | 4.01 | 25.0% | 10.3% | 3.1% | .312 | — | — | — | — | — | 2.80 | 264 | 60 |
| Mike Wright Jr. R 2026 · 3.76 FIP | 29 | SW | 3.76 | 19.9% | 7.2% | 2.6% | .347 | 3.99 | 17.6% | 7.3% | 169 | +0.23 | 3.73 | 725 | 59 |
| Javy Guerra R 2027 · 4.25 FIP | 30 | SU | 4.25 | 21.3% | 13.9% | 2.2% | .303 | 3.99 | 19.5% | 13.0% | 193 | -0.26 | 2.95 | 260 | 59 |
| Tyler Chatwood R 2026 · 3.94 FIP | 29 | SU | 3.94 | 22.8% | 11.4% | 2.4% | .278 | 3.42 | 27.3% | 14.2% | 51 | -0.52 | 3.22 | 537 | 59 |