Bryan Hoeing

P El Paso Chihuahuas

Age 30 RHP 6'6" / 210 lbs AAA peak 0.2 · 2027 ILInjured 60-Day (D60)

Overview

AAARPIL-6040-MAN

Year	Age	Lvl / Team	G	GS	IP	ERA	FIP	K%	BB%	WAR	MLE rates
2023	26	MIX2 levels	40	11	101	4.53	4.18	21.2%	6.4%	0.4	K 20.0% · BB 6.3% · FIP 4.39
2024	27	MIX3 levels	40	3	65	2.49	3.04	21.1%	6.9%	1.2	K 20.5% · BB 6.2% · FIP 3.18
2025	28	MIX4 levels	25	2	27	5.40	3.14	20.3%	7.0%	0.4	K 18.6% · BB 7.3% · FIP 3.29
2026	29	No MLB games played
2027PROJ	30	MLBSD	35	0	37	4.14	4.34	21.4%	8.2%	0.1
2028PROJ61% MLB	31	MLBSD	61	0	64	4.40	4.57	20.7%	8.6%	-0.0
2029PROJ72% MLB	32	MLBSD	59	0	62	4.66	4.83	19.9%	9.0%	-0.2

Last 3 seasons WAR 2.1 · Next 3 projected WAR -0.1Projected rows: MLB playing time only, park and league context applied.

Contract

No contract data on file.

Scouting grades · 20-80

Stuff45Control55Command50FB velo50

CompsJunior Guerra (age 30) · Yoanner Negrin (age 31) · Josh Zeid (age 30)

2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONrates below = full-season projection

showingPROJ

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 116108vR 99

ERA4.14

FIP4.34

K%21.4%

BB%8.2%

K-BB%13.2%

Proj IP83

Value2027 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 83 IP

Grades · Contract

Scouting Grades

STUF4545

CTRL5555

CMD5050

K†5050

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to the standard WAR scale.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2027 so far)
2021	24	A+ MLE	Beloit Snappers	22	22	121	522	96	24	13	100%	5.5	14.2%	5.3%	8.9%	2.9%	4.83	4.15	—
2021	24	A+ RAW	Beloit Snappers	22	22	121	522	96	24	13	100%	5.5	18.4%	4.6%	13.8%	2.5%	4.83	3.50	—
2022	25	MIX MLE	3 levels	30	22	132	569	81	44	19	73%	4.4	12.3%	8.1%	4.2%	3.5%	4.83	5.03	+0.6
2022	25	MIX RAW	3 levels	30	22	132	569	81	44	19	73%	4.4	14.2%	7.7%	6.5%	3.3%	4.83	4.74	+1.0
2023	26	MIX MLE	2 levels	40	11	101	424	90	27	16	28%	2.5	20.0%	6.3%	13.7%	4.0%	4.53	4.39	+0.2
2023	26	MIX RAW	2 levels	40	11	101	424	90	27	16	28%	2.5	21.2%	6.4%	14.9%	3.8%	4.53	4.18	+0.4
2024	27	MIX MLE	3 levels	40	3	65	261	55	18	4	8%	1.6	20.5%	6.2%	14.3%	1.9%	2.49	3.18	+1.1
2024	27	MIX MLE	3 levels	40	3	65	261	55	18	4	8%	1.6	20.5%	6.2%	14.3%	1.9%	2.49	3.18	+1.1
2024	27	MIX RAW	3 levels	40	3	65	261	55	18	4	8%	1.6	21.1%	6.9%	14.2%	1.5%	2.49	3.04	+1.2
2025	28	MIX MLE	4 levels	25	2	27	128	26	9	2	8%	1.1	18.6%	7.3%	11.3%	1.5%	5.40	3.29	+0.4
2025	28	MIX MLE	4 levels	25	2	27	128	26	9	2	8%	1.1	18.6%	7.3%	11.3%	1.5%	5.40	3.29	+0.4
2025	28	MIX RAW	4 levels	25	2	27	128	26	9	2	8%	1.1	20.3%	7.0%	13.3%	1.6%	5.40	3.14	+0.4
▸ Career totals (raw MLB only — as recorded)
MLB Career	—			82	10	145	611	107	44	22	12%	1.8	17.5%	7.2%	10.3%	3.6%	4.72	4.51	+0.1
▸ 2027 season — projected remainder (no 2027 stats recorded)
2027	30	MLB	SD	35	0	37	156	33	13	5	0%	1.1	21.4%	8.2%	13.2%	3.0%	4.14	4.34	+0.1
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2028	31	MLB MLE	SD	100	0	105	444	92	38	14	0%	1.1	20.7%	8.6%	12.1%	3.2%	4.40	4.57	-0.0
2029	32	MLB MLE	SD	82	0	86	364	72	33	12	0%	1.0	19.9%	9.0%	10.9%	3.4%	4.66	4.83	-0.3
2028	31	MLB CTX	SD	61	0	64	270	56	23	9	0%	1.0	20.7%	8.6%	12.1%	3.2%	4.40	4.57	-0.0
2029	32	MLB CTX	SD	59	0	62	262	52	24	9	0%	1.1	19.9%	9.0%	10.9%	3.4%	4.66	4.83	-0.2
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		202	10	271	1141	214	91	40	5%	1.3	18.8%	7.9%	10.8%	3.5%	4.63	4.42	+0.4
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		149	7	200	844	158	67	30	5%	1.3	18.8%	7.9%	10.8%	3.5%	4.63	4.42	+0.3
Career	—	MLE		157	60	446	1904	306	126	59	38%	2.8	16.1%	6.6%	9.5%	3.1%	4.46	4.28	-0.2
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		70	27	200	853	137	56	26	38%	2.8	16.1%	6.6%	9.5%	3.1%	4.46	4.28	-0.1

How the minor-league lines were translated

One row per minor-league stint. Open a row to see each step: the raw rate, the park adjustment, the league/level factor, the age adjustment (hitters) and the resulting MLE rate. Factors are the same ones listed on the MLE Factors page.

2025 AAAEl Paso Chihuahuas · 15 IPFIP 3.04 → 3.29 (+0.24)K% 21.6% → 18.6%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	21.62%	—	×0.860	18.59%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	8.11%	—	×0.900	7.30%
HR / BF /BF	1.35%	÷0.981	×1.100	1.52%

Factors used: pitcher AAA level factors (Triple-A 2023+ robo-zone set: walks improve on promotion) — K ×0.86, BB ×0.90, HR ×1.10. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 96).

Result: FIP 3.04 → 3.29, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2024 AAAJacksonville Jumbo Shrimp · 9 IPFIP 2.62 → 2.74 (+0.12)K% 22.7% → 19.5%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	22.73%	—	×0.860	19.55%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	11.36%	—	×0.900	10.23%
HR / BF /BF	0.00%	÷0.925	×1.100	0.00%

Result: FIP 2.62 → 2.74, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2023 AAAJacksonville Jumbo Shrimp · 31 IPFIP 2.29 → 2.71 (+0.41)K% 30.8% → 26.5%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	30.83%	—	×0.860	26.52%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	3.33%	—	×0.900	3.00%
HR / BF /BF	2.50%	÷1.031	×1.100	2.67%

Result: FIP 2.29 → 2.71, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2022 AAAJacksonville Jumbo Shrimp · 94 IPFIP 5.07 → 5.37 (+0.30)K% 12.1% → 10.6%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	12.07%	—	×0.880	10.62%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	8.62%	—	×1.050	9.05%
HR / BF /BF	3.45%	÷1.032	×1.100	3.68%

Factors used: pitcher AAA level factors — K ×0.88, BB ×1.05, HR ×1.10. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 106).

Result: FIP 5.07 → 5.37, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2022 AAPensacola Blue Wahoos · 26 IPFIP 1.44 → 1.90 (+0.46)K% 25.5% → 20.6%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	25.49%	—	×0.810	20.65%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	3.92%	—	×1.100	4.31%
HR / BF /BF	0.00%	÷1.048	×1.200	0.00%

Factors used: pitcher AA level factors — K ×0.81, BB ×1.10, HR ×1.20. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 110).

Result: FIP 1.44 → 1.90, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2021 A+Beloit Snappers · 121 IPFIP 3.50 → 4.15 (+0.66)K% 18.4% → 14.2%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	18.39%	—	×0.770	14.16%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	4.60%	—	×1.150	5.29%
HR / BF /BF	2.49%	÷1.082	×1.250	2.88%

Factors used: pitcher A+ level factors — K ×0.77, BB ×1.15, HR ×1.25. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 116).

Result: FIP 3.50 → 4.15, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Bryan Hoeing (OGILVIE)	—	—	4.34	21.4%	8.2%	3.0%	—	4.69	20.3%	11.5%	191	+0.35	—	—	—
Junior Guerra R 2015 · 3.18 FIP	30	SW	3.18	26.8%	10.3%	1.9%	.269	4.15	20.8%	10.9%	390	+0.97	3.18	646	78
Yoanner Negrin R 2015 · 3.79 FIP	31	SW	3.79	15.1%	7.5%	1.9%	.256	3.29	15.0%	8.5%	270	-0.50	3.15	485	71
Josh Zeid R 2017 · 5.35 FIP	30	SW	5.35	18.3%	10.8%	4.4%	.334	—	—	—	—	—	4.00	313	69
Elian Leyva R 2019 · 4.30 FIP	30	SP-	4.30	17.0%	8.5%	2.9%	.323	—	—	—	—	—	3.10	158	67
Rodolfo Aguirre R 2015 · 4.29 FIP	30	SW	4.29	12.4%	6.9%	2.5%	.288	4.81	11.4%	1.3%	125	+0.52	3.39	212	67
Felipe Arredondo R 2017 · 4.76 FIP	30	SW	4.76	14.8%	7.3%	3.6%	.311	4.65	16.2%	9.1%	64	-0.11	3.92	337	66
Chris Jakubauskas R 2009 · 4.97 FIP	30	SW	4.97	12.1%	6.2%	3.9%	.250	4.42	15.7%	7.8%	72	-0.55	4.42	165	65
Todd Redmond R 2015 · 3.86 FIP	30	SW	3.86	15.4%	7.1%	2.1%	.311	—	—	—	—	—	3.21	247	65
Hisashi Iwakuma R 2012 · 4.28 FIP	31	SP-	4.28	19.5%	7.7%	3.4%	.277	3.45	21.5%	17.8%	528	-0.83	3.19	884	64
Mike Bolsinger R 2017 · 4.26 FIP	29	SW	4.26	20.2%	9.4%	3.0%	.317	—	—	—	—	—	3.42	379	64
Ross Ohlendorf R 2013 · 4.01 FIP	30	SW	4.01	18.2%	5.3%	3.2%	.265	4.18	23.5%	14.4%	122	+0.17	3.30	617	64
Fabio Castillo R 2017 · 3.98 FIP	28	SP-	3.98	20.9%	8.8%	2.8%	.291	—	—	—	—	—	3.13	195	63
Spencer Bivens R 2024 · 4.07 FIP	30	SU	4.07	18.0%	5.8%	3.2%	.265	3.88	18.2%	10.9%	157	-0.19	3.52	391	63
Aldo Montes R 2019 · 4.69 FIP	29	SW	4.69	18.2%	10.6%	3.3%	.336	—	—	—	—	—	4.69	210	63
Eder Llamas R 2016 · 4.12 FIP	30	SW	4.12	11.4%	6.8%	2.0%	.301	3.23	11.3%	4.6%	64	-0.89	3.23	171	63
Fredy Quintero R 2017 · 4.45 FIP	29	SW	4.45	14.0%	8.7%	2.6%	.335	4.62	17.2%	3.5%	43	+0.17	4.29	241	62
Murphy Smith R 2018 · 4.57 FIP	30	SW	4.57	13.6%	9.3%	2.6%	.273	—	—	—	—	—	3.16	300	62
Antonio Guzman R 2017 · 3.15 FIP	29	SW	3.15	19.7%	10.0%	0.8%	.249	4.96	19.3%	4.6%	44	+1.81	3.15	254	62
Mike Burns R 2009 · 4.90 FIP	31	SP-	4.90	17.2%	6.6%	4.4%	.307	—	—	—	—	—	3.10	104	62
Zach Neal R 2018 · 4.44 FIP	29	SW	4.44	13.8%	3.6%	3.7%	.307	—	—	—	—	—	4.24	732	62

Career Comps

Completed MLB careers (no pro action in 2+ yrs) whose totals — actual + projected — most resemble this player's. Pool: 2,161 pitcher careers (1,251 from 1990-2025 + 910 historical, 1901-2023), also matched on career-to-date at the same age. * Historical (Lahman) careers: rates era-adjusted to 2001-24 league levels; WAR is an OGILVIE proxy.

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	2.1	86	19.6%	8.3%	1.29	4.50
Odell Jones ('75-'88, 2 WAR*)	2.7	78	20.8%*	8.8%*	1.18*	4.62*
Chris Narveson ('16)	2.2	109	19.4%	8.6%	1.20	4.71
Randy O'Neal ('84-'90, 1 WAR*)	2.2	73	17.4%*	7.8%*	1.21*	4.65*
Guillermo Moscoso ('13)	1.1	74	17.4%	9.0%	1.13	4.28
Rubby De La Rosa ('17)	2.1	105	19.6%	8.6%	1.32	4.49
Hank Fischer ('62-'67, -1 WAR*)	2.7	91	19.8%*	8.2%*	1.33*	5.07*