Nick Neidert
P
Iowa Cubs
Age 29
RHP
6'1" / 202 lbs
AAA
peak 0.5 · 2026
2026 FULL-SEASON PROJECTION73 proj IP · Marcel + aging
ERA4.70
FIP4.80
xFIP3.69
SIERA4.07
K%19.0%
BB%9.0%
K-BB%10.0%
IP73
K†4545
trajectory · 10 yrs
0.5peak
2026
FB Velo
p1191.7
Whiff%
p1019.1%
K%
p1013.4%
xwOBA vs
p100.370
CH+0.6
FB+0.5
SL-1.3
Career (MLE) + Projections
Park-neutral MLB-equivalent. MiLB translated via MLE factors. FIP-based WAR vs replacement FIP=5.4 (SP) / 4.55 (RP, <80 IP). FIP+ = runs above league-avg FIP · REP = replacement-level bonus.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | G | GS | IP | BF | K | BB | HR | K% | BB% | HR% | ERA | FIP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2015 | 18 | ROK | AZL Mariners | 11 | 11 | 35 | 135 | 23 | 9 | 1 | 11.6% | 8.3% | 1.0% | 1.53 | 3.75 | +0.3 |
| 2016 | 19 | A | Clinton LumberKings | 19 | 19 | 91 | 355 | 69 | 13 | 7 | 14.4% | 4.3% | 2.7% | 2.57 | 3.91 | +1.4 |
| 2017 | 20 | AA | Arkansas Travelers | 25 | 25 | 128 | 525 | 122 | 22 | 11 | 18.0% | 4.8% | 3.2% | 3.45 | 3.91 | +2.2 |
| 2018 | 21 | AA | Jacksonville Jumbo Shrimp | 26 | 26 | 153 | 611 | 154 | 31 | 17 | 20.4% | 5.6% | 3.1% | 3.24 | 3.78 | +2.9 |
| 2019 | 22 | AAA | New Orleans Baby Cakes | 13 | 13 | 54 | 243 | 46 | 27 | 5 | 17.4% | 12.4% | 2.0% | 4.67 | 4.27 | +0.2 |
| 2020 | 23 | MLB | Miami Marlins | 4 | 0 | 8 | 34 | 4 | 2 | 1 | 11.8% | 5.9% | 2.9% | 5.40 | 4.47 | +0.0 |
| 2021 | 24 | MLB | Miami Marlins | 22 | 20 | 104 | 460 | 73 | 43 | 12 | 14.5% | 9.6% | 3.4% | 3.97 | 4.95 | +0.5 |
| 2022 | 25 | MLB | Miami Marlins | 15 | 9 | 51 | 204 | 51 | 9 | 7 | 23.0% | 5.1% | 3.4% | 2.12 | 3.66 | +0.5 |
| 2023 | 26 | AAA | Iowa Cubs | 27 | 24 | 107 | 486 | 86 | 40 | 18 | 15.6% | 8.6% | 4.4% | 5.64 | 5.28 | +0.1 |
| ▸ 2026 Season | ||||||||||||||||
| 2026 | 29 | MLB | CHC | 13 | 13 | 73 | 310 | 59 | 28 | 10 | 19.0% | 9.0% | 3.2% | 4.70 | 4.80 | +0.0 |
| ▸ 2027+ Projections — Marcel base + age-bracket aging | ||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 30 | MLB | CHC | 13 | 13 | 69 | 291 | 55 | 27 | 10 | 18.7% | 9.4% | 3.4% | 4.84 | 4.96 | -0.2 |
| 2028 | 31 | MLB | CHC | 12 | 12 | 64 | 271 | 50 | 26 | 10 | 18.3% | 9.7% | 3.6% | 5.00 | 5.14 | -0.4 |
| 2029 | 32 | MLB | CHC | 60 | — | 60 | 251 | 45 | 25 | 10 | 17.8% | 10.1% | 3.8% | 5.20 | 5.36 | -0.6 |
| 2030 | 33 | MLB | CHC | 55 | — | 55 | 231 | 39 | 24 | 9 | 17.1% | 10.5% | 4.1% | 5.44 | 5.61 | -0.7 |
| 2031 | 34 | MLB | CHC | 50 | — | 50 | 210 | 34 | 23 | 9 | 16.2% | 11.0% | 4.4% | 5.73 | 5.92 | -0.8 |
| 2032 | 35 | MLB | CHC | 45 | — | 45 | 188 | 29 | 22 | 9 | 15.2% | 11.6% | 4.7% | 6.04 | 6.25 | -0.9 |
| 2033 | 36 | MLB | CHC | 40 | — | 40 | 167 | 24 | 20 | 9 | 14.2% | 12.2% | 5.1% | 6.39 | 6.62 | -1.0 |
| ▸ Career (all levels · actual + projected) | ||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | 162 | 147 | 731 | 3053 | 521 | 214 | 96 | 17.1% | 7.0% | 3.1% | 3.62 | 4.27 | +9.7 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 44 | 40 | 200 | 835 | 142 | 59 | 26 | 17.1% | 7.0% | 3.1% | 3.62 | 4.27 | +2.6 | ||
Career Path Comps
What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection
| Profile at Match Age | Next 3 Yrs | Career | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Comp | Age | Role | FIP | K% | BB% | HR/BF | BABIP | FIP | K% | K-BB% | IP | ΔFIP | Low FIP | IP | Match |
| Nick Neidert (OGILVIE) | — | — | 4.80 | 19.0% | 9.0% | 3.2% | — | 5.14 | 18.3% | 8.6% | 193 | +0.34 | — | — | — |
| Ryan Cook R 2025 · 4.69 FIP | 28 | SW | 4.69 | 16.5% | 9.9% | 3.1% | .297 | 4.04 | 25.1% | 14.3% | 50 | -0.65 | 4.04 | 102 | 84 |
| Collin Balester R 2026 · 4.25 FIP | 29 | SW | 4.25 | 14.2% | 9.3% | 2.1% | .240 | 3.40 | 21.2% | 15.4% | 43 | -0.85 | 3.40 | 116 | 83 |
| Chris Leroux R 2028 · 4.50 FIP | 31 | SW | 4.50 | 15.2% | 8.6% | 2.9% | .279 | 3.94 | 13.5% | 5.5% | 140 | -0.56 | 3.94 | 219 | 82 |
| Grant Black R 2026 · 5.81 FIP | 29 | SW | 5.81 | 16.3% | 13.2% | 4.4% | .352 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.49 | 215 | 81 |
| Javy Guerra R 2027 · 4.25 FIP | 30 | SW | 4.25 | 21.3% | 13.9% | 2.2% | .303 | 3.99 | 19.5% | 13.0% | 193 | -0.26 | 2.95 | 260 | 81 |
| Tim Lincecum R 2028 · 4.20 FIP | 31 | SW | 4.20 | 18.0% | 10.8% | 2.3% | .296 | 5.09 | 17.4% | 6.3% | 89 | +0.89 | 4.20 | 166 | 81 |
| Beck Wheeler R 2025 · 5.09 FIP | 28 | SW | 5.09 | 15.3% | 12.2% | 3.2% | .347 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.42 | 173 | 81 |
| Brandon Cunniff R 2025 · 4.96 FIP | 28 | SW | 4.96 | 20.1% | 11.6% | 3.8% | .275 | 7.33 | 13.9% | -1.9% | 30 | +2.37 | 3.78 | 180 | 80 |
| Tanner Scheppers R 2025 · 4.39 FIP | 28 | SW | 4.39 | 17.7% | 11.2% | 2.5% | .263 | 4.65 | 15.7% | 9.0% | 48 | +0.26 | 4.39 | 101 | 80 |
| Jose De La Torre R 2026 · 4.39 FIP | 29 | SW | 4.39 | 14.5% | 13.1% | 1.5% | .256 | 2.88 | 21.6% | 14.2% | 65 | -1.51 | 2.54 | 130 | 80 |
| Wirfin Obispo R 2027 · 4.87 FIP | 30 | SU | 4.87 | 18.6% | 12.2% | 3.3% | .292 | 1.30 | 28.6% | 24.5% | 126 | -3.57 | 1.30 | 218 | 79 |
| Wil Browning R 2025 · 4.58 FIP | 28 | SW | 4.58 | 17.9% | 13.1% | 2.4% | .359 | — | — | — | — | — | 2.12 | 162 | 79 |
| Mike Adams R 2024 · 5.26 FIP | 27 | SW | 5.26 | 17.1% | 11.2% | 4.0% | .326 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.66 | 109 | 79 |
| Angel Castro R 2029 · 4.89 FIP | 32 | SW | 4.89 | 15.9% | 8.0% | 3.9% | .268 | 4.43 | 13.6% | 5.5% | 231 | -0.46 | 3.48 | 292 | 79 |
| Gregory Infante R 2026 · 4.39 FIP | 29 | SW | 4.39 | 19.0% | 12.3% | 2.4% | .333 | 3.24 | 22.5% | 15.8% | 120 | -1.15 | 2.96 | 230 | 78 |
| Eder Llamas R 2026 · 5.20 FIP | 29 | SW | 5.20 | 12.3% | 8.8% | 3.7% | .261 | 3.71 | 11.3% | 4.6% | 120 | -1.49 | 3.27 | 171 | 78 |
| Pedro Beato R 2026 · 4.86 FIP | 29 | SW | 4.86 | 19.2% | 8.5% | 4.2% | .275 | 3.73 | 18.5% | 11.1% | 152 | -1.13 | 3.40 | 295 | 78 |
| Alexi Ogando R 2028 · 5.03 FIP | 31 | SW | 5.03 | 19.1% | 9.4% | 4.3% | .253 | 3.84 | 17.2% | 8.0% | 67 | -1.19 | 3.73 | 132 | 77 |
| Kevin Kopps R 2025 · 5.15 FIP | 28 | SW | 5.15 | 15.9% | 13.8% | 3.0% | .277 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.64 | 237 | 77 |
| Dan Winkler R 2026 · 4.97 FIP | 29 | SW | 4.97 | 20.6% | 15.2% | 3.1% | .237 | 4.27 | 23.0% | 8.4% | 104 | -0.70 | 2.40 | 231 | 77 |
Contract
No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.