Jake Irvin

P Washington Nationals

Age 30 RHP 6'6" / 234 lbs MLB peak 0.3 · 2027

Overview

MLBSP40-MAN

Year	Age	Lvl / Team	G	GS	IP	ERA	FIP	K%	BB%	WAR	MLE rates
2024	27	MLBWSH	33	33	188	4.41	4.26	20.3%	6.6%	1.4
2025	28	MLBWSH	33	33	180	5.70	5.50	15.8%	7.9%	-1.2
2026	29	MIX3 levels	25	23	118	4.96	4.48	23.9%	9.6%	0.6	K 23.4% · BB 10.2% · FIP 4.75
2027PROJ	30	MLBWSH	27	27	164	5.12	5.22	19.6%	8.8%	-0.6
2028PROJ	31	MLBWSH	26	26	153	5.32	5.45	18.9%	9.2%	-0.9
2029PROJ	32	MLBWSH	24	24	141	5.55	5.71	18.1%	9.6%	-1.3

Last 3 seasons WAR 0.8 · Next 3 projected WAR -2.8Projected rows: MLB playing time only, park and league context applied.

Contract

No contract data on file.

Skills · percentileStatcast 2026

K%57

Whiff%41

FB Velo32

xwOBA vs17

CompsChase Anderson (age 30) · Tom Koehler (age 30) · Matt Shoemaker (age 30)

2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONrates below = full-season projection

showingPROJ

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 132124vR 116

ERA5.12

FIP5.22

K%19.6%

BB%8.8%

K-BB%10.8%

Proj IP164

Value2027 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 164 IP

Grades · Statcast · Arsenal · Contract

Scouting Grades

OFP—40

STUF5050

CTRL5555

CMD4545

K†4545

Statcast Percentiles

FB Velo

p3293.2

Whiff%

p4124.0%

p5723.4%

xwOBA vs

p170.351

CH+0.8 (8%)

SI (19%)

CU (23%)

FB-0.6 (51%)

SL-0.8 (9%)

CT-1.4 (10%)

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2027 so far)
2018	21	ROK MLE	GCL Nationals	7	3	13	53	9	3	0	43%	1.8	11.5%	7.1%	4.5%	0.0%	1.42	3.02	—
2018	21	ROK RAW	GCL Nationals	7	3	13	53	9	3	0	43%	1.8	17.0%	5.7%	11.3%	0.0%	1.42	2.39	—
2019	22	A MLE	Hagerstown Suns	25	25	128	536	113	38	14	100%	5.1	15.6%	8.4%	7.2%	3.5%	3.79	4.75	—
2019	22	A RAW	Hagerstown Suns	25	25	128	536	113	38	14	100%	5.1	21.1%	7.1%	14.0%	2.6%	3.79	3.65	—
2022	25	MIX MLE	2 levels	24	24	103	424	107	28	9	100%	4.3	20.2%	7.4%	12.8%	2.6%	3.83	3.76	—
2022	25	MIX RAW	2 levels	24	24	103	424	107	28	9	100%	4.3	25.2%	6.6%	18.6%	2.1%	3.83	2.97	—
2023	26	MIX MLE	2 levels	29	29	143	628	119	65	23	100%	4.9	18.5%	10.2%	8.3%	3.7%	4.77	4.85	+0.1
2023	26	MIX RAW	2 levels	29	29	143	628	119	65	23	100%	4.9	18.9%	10.4%	8.6%	3.7%	4.77	4.89	+0.0
2024	27	MLB MLE	Washington Nationals	33	33	188	769	156	51	29	100%	5.7	20.3%	6.6%	13.7%	3.8%	4.41	4.30	+1.3
2024	27	MLB MLE	Washington Nationals	33	33	188	769	156	51	29	100%	5.7	20.3%	6.6%	13.7%	3.8%	4.41	4.30	+1.3
2024	27	MLB RAW	Washington Nationals	33	33	188	769	156	51	29	100%	5.7	20.3%	6.6%	13.7%	3.8%	4.41	4.26	+1.4
2025	28	MLB MLE	Washington Nationals	33	33	180	787	124	62	38	100%	5.5	15.8%	7.9%	7.9%	4.8%	5.70	5.42	-1.0
2025	28	MLB MLE	Washington Nationals	33	33	180	787	124	62	38	100%	5.5	15.8%	7.9%	7.9%	4.8%	5.70	5.42	-1.0
2025	28	MLB RAW	Washington Nationals	33	33	180	787	124	62	38	100%	5.5	15.8%	7.9%	7.9%	4.8%	5.70	5.50	-1.2
2026	29	MIX MLE	3 levels	25	23	118	510	122	49	20	92%	4.7	23.4%	10.2%	13.2%	4.3%	4.96	4.75	+0.2
2026	29	MIX MLE	3 levels	25	23	118	510	122	49	20	92%	4.7	23.4%	10.2%	13.2%	4.3%	4.96	4.75	+0.2
2026	29	MIX RAW	3 levels	25	23	118	510	122	49	20	92%	4.7	23.9%	9.6%	14.3%	3.9%	4.96	4.48	+0.6
▸ Career totals (raw MLB only — as recorded)
MLB Career	—			112	110	595	2556	489	215	107	98%	5.3	19.1%	8.4%	10.7%	4.2%	5.03	4.88	+0.2
▸ 2027 season — projected remainder (no 2027 stats recorded)
2027	30	MLB	WSH	27	27	164	692	136	61	29	100%	6.1	19.6%	8.8%	10.8%	4.2%	5.12	5.22	-0.6
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2028	31	MLB MLE	WSH	25	25	153	645	122	59	28	100%	6.1	18.9%	9.2%	9.7%	4.4%	5.32	5.45	-0.9
2029	32	MLB MLE	WSH	24	24	141	596	108	57	28	100%	5.9	18.1%	9.6%	8.5%	4.6%	5.55	5.71	-1.3
2028	31	MLB CTX	WSH	26	26	153	646	122	59	28	100%	5.9	18.9%	9.2%	9.7%	4.4%	5.32	5.45	-0.9
2029	32	MLB CTX	WSH	24	24	141	595	108	57	28	100%	5.9	18.1%	9.6%	8.5%	4.6%	5.55	5.71	-1.3
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		161	159	889	3797	719	331	163	99%	5.5	18.9%	8.7%	10.2%	4.3%	5.17	4.96	-0.6
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		36	36	200	854	162	74	37	99%	5.5	18.9%	8.7%	10.2%	4.3%	5.17	4.96	-0.1
Career	—	MLE		176	170	873	3707	691	309	141	97%	5.0	18.6%	8.3%	10.3%	3.8%	4.61	4.68	-2.1
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		40	39	200	849	158	71	32	97%	5.0	18.6%	8.3%	10.3%	3.8%	4.61	4.68	-0.5

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Jake Irvin (OGILVIE)	—	—	5.22	19.6%	8.8%	4.2%	—	5.57	18.5%	9.1%	294	+0.35	—	—	—
Chase Anderson R 2018 · 4.98 FIP	30	SP	4.98	19.9%	8.9%	4.4%	.235	4.93	20.1%	11.9%	253	-0.05	3.30	1,260	71
Tom Koehler R 2016 · 4.38 FIP	30	SP	4.38	19.0%	9.8%	3.0%	.291	4.66	22.4%	13.4%	110	+0.28	3.76	822	68
Matt Shoemaker R 2017 · 4.88 FIP	30	SP	4.88	21.2%	8.6%	4.5%	.271	4.29	23.5%	15.5%	88	-0.59	3.12	728	67
Hideki Irabu R 2000 · 4.38 FIP	31	SP	4.38	17.0%	5.7%	3.6%	.374	5.19	17.2%	11.0%	64	+0.81	3.78	514	65
Miguel González R 2014 · 4.49 FIP	30	SP	4.49	16.5%	7.5%	3.4%	.268	4.26	16.6%	9.5%	457	-0.23	3.72	905	65
Rolando Arrojo R 2000 · 4.47 FIP	32	SP	4.47	16.1%	8.0%	3.1%	.291	3.68	16.4%	9.2%	185	-0.79	3.50	700	62
Todd Ritchie R 2002 · 4.66 FIP	30	SP	4.66	12.4%	8.0%	2.9%	.331	4.78	11.5%	3.9%	28	+0.12	3.03	828	58
Lance Lynn R 2017 · 4.68 FIP	30	SP	4.68	19.7%	9.4%	3.7%	.237	3.25	25.9%	17.8%	449	-1.43	2.85	2,006	57
Chris Young R 2009 · 5.20 FIP	30	SP	5.20	14.9%	11.0%	3.6%	.245	4.27	17.5%	9.5%	159	-0.93	3.17	1,298	56
Rodrigo Lopez R 2006 · 4.67 FIP	30	SP-	4.67	16.1%	6.7%	3.8%	.325	4.30	13.2%	7.9%	109	-0.37	4.06	1,344	56
Nick Blackburn R 2012 · 5.80 FIP	30	SP	5.80	9.2%	5.7%	5.0%	.329	—	—	—	—	—	4.19	819	56
Jae Weong Seo R 2007 · 5.35 FIP	30	SP	5.35	11.3%	6.0%	4.4%	.376	—	—	—	—	—	3.65	605	55
Jeremy Guthrie R 2009 · 5.09 FIP	30	SP	5.09	12.6%	6.8%	4.0%	.282	4.41	13.7%	7.5%	599	-0.68	4.08	1,834	54
Brian Moehler R 2002 · 4.92 FIP	30	SP	4.92	11.2%	4.7%	4.0%	.300	4.06	13.1%	8.1%	172	-0.86	3.81	1,559	54
Victor Zambrano R 2006 · 6.06 FIP	30	SP	6.06	15.5%	11.3%	5.1%	.303	6.68	12.8%	-3.2%	23	+0.62	3.42	706	53
Chi Chi González R 2022 · 4.30 FIP	30	SP-	4.30	17.6%	8.0%	3.0%	.315	5.33	11.2%	5.6%	122	+1.03	4.01	800	53
Brian Tollberg R 2002 · 4.98 FIP	29	SP	4.98	11.5%	5.9%	3.8%	.339	—	—	—	—	—	4.02	297	53
Ramon Ortiz R 2003 · 4.99 FIP	30	SP	4.99	11.5%	7.7%	3.4%	.288	4.88	13.0%	6.8%	490	-0.11	4.32	1,525	53
Daisuke Matsuzaka R 2011 · 4.88 FIP	30	SP	4.88	15.6%	13.8%	2.5%	.246	4.30	20.6%	9.6%	168	-0.58	3.77	790	53
Chris Holt R 2001 · 4.50 FIP	29	SP-	4.50	11.5%	7.5%	2.6%	.328	—	—	—	—	—	3.65	732	52

Career Comps

Completed MLB careers (no pro action in 2+ yrs) whose totals — actual + projected — most resemble this player's. Pool: 1,853 starter careers (497 from 1990-2025 + 1,356 historical, 1901-2023), also matched on career-to-date at the same age. * Historical (Lahman) careers: rates era-adjusted to 2001-24 league levels; WAR is an OGILVIE proxy.

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	5.3	150	19.0%	8.8%	1.65	5.16
Jack Armstrong ('88-'94, 2 WAR*)	3.9	131	19.2%*	9.2%*	1.59*	4.89*
Kevin Foster ('01)	2.5	127	18.9%	10.0%	1.55	4.86
Bill Grahame ('08-'10, 0 WAR*)	1.7	116	17.7%*	9.3%*	1.52*	5.11*
Dan Griner ('12-'18, 3 WAR*)	3.4	135	17.1%*	8.0%*	1.50*	4.97*
Dan Straily ('19)	4.0	115	19.8%	9.1%	1.60	4.56
Matt Beech ('98)	1.5	98	20.2%	10.0%	1.59	5.37