Stephen Kolek — OGILVIE

Stephen Kolek P Kansas City Royals

Age 29 RHP 6'3" / 210 lbs MLB peak 0.4 · 2026 ILInjured 60-Day (D60)

2026 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONpark-neutral Marcel · 110 proj IP

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 10395vR 87

ERA3.81

FIP3.81

K%16.3%

BB%5.6%

K-BB%10.7%

ROS IP110

Value2026 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 73 IP

Grades · Statcast · Arsenal · Contract

Scouting Grades

OFP—45

STUF4545

CTRL6565

CMD5555

K†4040

Statcast Percentiles

FB Velo

p4594.2

Whiff%

p1119.8%

p1015.2%

xwOBA vs

p590.303

FB+8.9 (50%)

CT+5.0 (15%)

CH+4.1 (12%)

SI (24%)

SL-4.6 (24%)

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2026 so far)
2018	21	MIX MLE	2 levels	17	0	32	123	30	6	1	0%	1.9	19.6%	5.8%	13.8%	0.0%	1.42	2.18	—
2018	21	MIX RAW	2 levels	17	0	32	123	30	6	1	0%	1.9	24.4%	4.9%	19.5%	0.8%	1.42	2.18	—
2019	22	A MLE	Great Lakes Loons	27	25	131	580	109	47	7	93%	4.9	13.9%	9.6%	4.3%	1.5%	5.00	3.98	—
2019	22	A RAW	Great Lakes Loons	27	25	131	580	109	47	7	93%	4.9	18.8%	8.1%	10.7%	1.2%	5.00	3.21	—
2021	24	MIX MLE	3 levels	24	9	60	270	67	25	7	38%	2.5	20.7%	9.4%	11.4%	3.3%	6.03	4.36	—
2021	24	MIX RAW	3 levels	24	9	60	270	67	25	7	38%	2.5	24.8%	9.3%	15.6%	2.6%	6.03	3.64	—
2022	25	AA MLE	Arkansas Travelers	27	27	144	636	138	66	10	100%	5.3	17.6%	11.4%	6.2%	2.1%	4.51	4.20	—
2022	25	AA RAW	Arkansas Travelers	27	27	144	636	138	66	10	100%	5.3	21.7%	10.4%	11.3%	1.6%	4.51	3.46	—
2023	26	MIX MLE	2 levels	49	1	69	290	76	31	3	2%	1.4	20.5%	9.9%	10.6%	1.1%	3.76	3.22	—
2023	26	MIX MLE	2 levels	49	1	69	290	76	31	3	2%	1.4	20.5%	9.9%	10.6%	1.1%	3.76	3.22	—
2023	26	MIX RAW	2 levels	49	1	69	290	76	31	3	2%	1.4	26.2%	10.7%	15.5%	1.0%	3.76	2.81	—
2024	27	MLB MLE	San Diego Padres	42	0	47	211	39	12	4	0%	1.1	18.5%	5.7%	12.8%	1.8%	5.21	3.27	+0.7
2024	27	MLB MLE	San Diego Padres	42	0	47	211	39	12	4	0%	1.1	18.5%	5.7%	12.8%	1.8%	5.21	3.27	+0.7
2024	27	MLB RAW	San Diego Padres	42	0	47	211	39	12	4	0%	1.1	18.5%	5.7%	12.8%	1.9%	5.21	3.31	+0.7
2025	28	MIX MLE	2 levels	30	30	159	682	118	45	15	100%	5.3	16.3%	6.4%	9.9%	2.4%	4.31	3.85	+2.0
2025	28	MIX MLE	2 levels	30	30	159	682	118	45	15	100%	5.3	16.3%	6.4%	9.9%	2.4%	4.31	3.85	+2.0
2025	28	MIX RAW	2 levels	30	30	159	682	118	45	15	100%	5.3	17.3%	6.6%	10.7%	2.2%	4.31	3.69	+2.3
▸ Career totals (raw MLB only — as recorded)
MLB Career	—			71	29	213	896	150	54	21	41%	3.0	16.7%	6.0%	10.7%	2.3%	4.13	3.73	+2.1
▸ 2026 season
YTD	29	MLB MLE	Kansas City Royals	15	15	73	307	51	16	9	100%	4.9	15.7%	5.1%	10.6%	3.2%	4.19	4.16	+0.6
YTD	29	MLB MLE	Kansas City Royals	15	15	73	307	51	16	9	100%	4.9	15.7%	5.1%	10.6%	3.2%	4.19	4.16	+0.6
▸ 2026 season — so far · projected rest · full
2026	29	AAA RAW	KC	5	5	19	83	17	4	1	100%	3.8	20.5%	4.8%	15.7%	1.2%	3.32	2.64	—
2026	29	MLB RAW	KC	10	10	54	224	34	12	8	100%	5.4	15.2%	5.4%	9.8%	3.6%	4.50	4.46	+0.3
SO FAR	29	MLB RAW	KC	10	10	54	224	34	12	8	100%	5.4	15.2%	5.4%	9.8%	3.6%	4.50	4.46	+0.3
ROS	29	MLB MLE	KC	—	—	0	—	—	—	—	—	—	16.3%	5.6%	10.7%	2.5%	3.81	3.81	—
ROS	29	MLB CTX	KC	—	—	0	—	—	—	—	—	—	16.3%	5.6%	10.7%	2.5%	3.81	3.81	—
2026 TOT	29	MLB MLE	KC	—	—	73	307	51	16	9	—	—	16.6%	5.2%	11.4%	2.9%	4.19	4.16	+0.4
FULL	29	MLB A+C	KC	—	—	54	228	51	16	9	—	—	22.4%	7.0%	15.4%	3.9%	5.67	4.27	+0.2
▸ Career projection (2027+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2027	30	MLB MLE	KC	17	17	104	438	68	26	13	100%	6.1	15.6%	6.0%	9.5%	3.0%	4.49	4.57	+0.4
2028	31	MLB MLE	KC	16	16	97	409	61	26	13	100%	6.0	14.8%	6.4%	8.4%	3.2%	4.68	4.80	+0.1
2027	30	MLB CTX	KC	16	16	99	418	65	25	12	100%	6.2	15.6%	6.0%	9.5%	3.0%	4.49	4.57	+0.4
2028	31	MLB CTX	KC	15	15	92	388	58	25	12	100%	6.1	14.8%	6.4%	8.4%	3.2%	4.68	4.80	+0.1
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		102	60	404	1701	272	104	46	59%	4.0	16.0%	6.1%	9.9%	2.7%	4.35	4.00	+4.3
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		50	30	200	842	135	51	23	59%	4.0	16.0%	6.1%	9.9%	2.7%	4.35	4.00	+2.1
Career	—	MLE		231	107	714	3099	530	260	64	46%	3.1	17.1%	8.4%	8.7%	2.1%	4.49	3.86	+1.7
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		65	30	200	868	149	73	18	46%	3.1	17.1%	8.4%	8.7%	2.1%	4.49	3.86	+0.8

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Stephen Kolek (OGILVIE)	—	—	4.14	17.1%	6.0%	2.4%	—	4.68	15.2%	9.0%	201	+0.54	—	—	—
Odrisamer Despaigne R 2016 · 3.97 FIP	29	SW	3.97	15.3%	8.5%	2.0%	.316	3.74	17.1%	8.5%	348	-0.23	3.13	593	79
Michael Bowden R 2015 · 3.21 FIP	28	SP-	3.21	17.3%	6.4%	1.4%	.282	—	—	—	—	—	3.21	141	77
Jason Berken R 2015 · 4.34 FIP	31	SW	4.34	13.5%	6.6%	2.8%	.315	4.54	11.5%	3.2%	106	+0.20	4.34	219	75
Daniel McCutchen R 2015 · 4.30 FIP	32	SP-	4.30	13.9%	4.4%	3.3%	.268	4.74	10.8%	4.9%	155	+0.44	4.30	287	74
Jacob Turner R 2018 · 4.48 FIP	27	SP-	4.48	14.9%	8.8%	2.8%	.297	—	—	—	—	—	4.29	340	73
Tiago Da Silva R 2015 · 3.10 FIP	30	SW	3.10	19.6%	4.5%	2.0%	.278	2.38	21.4%	18.5%	98	-0.72	2.21	287	72
Scott McGregor R 2015 · 4.37 FIP	28	SP-	4.37	11.8%	7.6%	2.4%	.293	—	—	—	—	—	4.37	107	72
Bruce Billings R 2015 · 3.09 FIP	29	SP-	3.09	15.6%	5.6%	1.1%	.309	—	—	—	—	—	3.09	121	71
Jake Brigham R 2015 · 3.09 FIP	27	SW	3.09	15.0%	6.5%	0.8%	.318	—	—	—	—	—	3.09	108	71
Mike Wright Jr. R 2019 · 3.76 FIP	29	SW	3.76	19.9%	7.2%	2.6%	.347	4.19	17.6%	7.3%	169	+0.43	3.76	725	71
Donovan Hand R 2015 · 4.30 FIP	29	SW	4.30	11.1%	4.3%	2.9%	.305	4.56	12.5%	5.7%	140	+0.26	4.30	237	71
Colin Bates R 2015 · 4.57 FIP	27	SP-	4.57	10.5%	6.5%	2.8%	.301	—	—	—	—	—	4.57	111	71
Kris Medlen R 2015 · 4.82 FIP	29	SP-	4.82	15.4%	6.4%	4.0%	.261	5.17	17.1%	8.6%	173	+0.35	4.59	261	71
Shawn Haviland R 2015 · 3.95 FIP	29	SP-	3.95	14.6%	6.0%	2.4%	.303	4.67	16.1%	8.8%	169	+0.72	3.69	283	70
Mitch Atkins R 2016 · 3.65 FIP	30	SP-	3.65	21.4%	8.2%	2.4%	.341	4.77	14.3%	6.2%	78	+1.12	3.65	205	70
Hector Noesí R 2015 · 4.37 FIP	28	SP-	4.37	17.6%	8.1%	3.2%	.261	—	—	—	—	—	4.37	250	69
Scott Carroll R 2015 · 3.92 FIP	30	SW	3.92	12.7%	7.7%	1.7%	.286	5.07	11.2%	2.6%	128	+1.15	3.92	248	69
Jorge Martinez R 2016 · 3.53 FIP	31	SP-	3.53	12.9%	5.3%	1.6%	.266	3.71	16.5%	11.5%	154	+0.18	3.53	214	69
Yohan Pino R 2015 · 4.13 FIP	31	SP-	4.13	17.8%	5.8%	3.3%	.312	5.33	15.2%	11.6%	35	+1.20	4.13	133	68
Fabio Castillo R 2017 · 3.98 FIP	28	SP-	3.98	20.9%	8.8%	2.8%	.291	—	—	—	—	—	3.13	195	68

Career Comps

Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 133 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	1.5	101	15.8%	6.1%	1.11	4.43
Zach Plesac ('23)	2.3	93	18.4%	6.3%	1.39	4.20
Daniel Mengden ('19)	1.5	73	17.3%	7.7%	1.24	4.68
Yonny Chirinos ('24)	1.7	84	18.9%	6.6%	1.38	4.37
Cole Irvin ('24)	2.9	118	17.1%	5.6%	1.28	4.46
Matt Manning ('24)	1.3	64	16.4%	7.8%	1.06	4.43
Alec Mills ('21)	1.1	72	19.0%	6.9%	1.41	4.51