Stephen Kolek

P Kansas City Royals

Age 30 RHP 6'3" / 210 lbs MLB peak 0.1 · 2027 ILInjured 60-Day (D60)

Overview

MLBSPIL-6040-MAN

Year	Age	Lvl / Team	G	GS	IP	ERA	FIP	K%	BB%	WAR	MLE rates
2024	27	MLBSD	42	0	47	5.21	3.31	18.5%	5.7%	0.7
2025	28	MIX2 levels	30	30	159	4.31	3.69	17.3%	6.6%	3.3	K 16.5% · BB 6.4% · FIP 3.83
2026	29	MIX2 levels	15	15	73	4.19	3.96	16.6%	5.2%	1.3	K 15.8% · BB 5.1% · FIP 4.15
2027PROJ	30	MLBKC	30	0	31	4.27	4.30	16.6%	5.4%	0.1
2028PROJ95% MLB	31	MLBKC	31	0	33	4.43	4.53	15.9%	5.7%	0.0
2029PROJ95% MLB	32	MLBKC	21	0	22	4.64	4.79	15.1%	6.1%	-0.1

Last 3 seasons WAR 5.2 · Next 3 projected WAR 0.0Projected rows: MLB playing time only, park and league context applied.

Contract

No contract data on file.

Skills · percentileStatcast 2026

xwOBA vs59

FB Velo45

K%10

CompsRoss Ohlendorf (age 30) · Ryan Jensen (age 29) · Tiago Da Silva (age 30)

2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONrates below = full-season projection

showingPROJ

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 109101vR 93

ERA4.27

FIP4.30

K%16.6%

BB%5.4%

K-BB%11.2%

Proj IP31

Value2027 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 31 IP

Statcast · Contract

Statcast Percentiles

FB Velo

p4594.2

Whiff%

p1119.8%

p1015.2%

xwOBA vs

p590.303

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to the standard WAR scale.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2027 so far)
2018	21	MIX MLE	2 levels	17	0	32	123	30	6	1	0%	1.9	19.6%	5.8%	13.8%	0.0%	1.42	2.18	—
2018	21	MIX RAW	2 levels	17	0	32	123	30	6	1	0%	1.9	24.4%	4.9%	19.5%	0.8%	1.42	2.18	—
2019	22	A MLE	Great Lakes Loons	27	25	131	580	109	47	7	93%	4.9	13.9%	9.6%	4.3%	1.5%	5.00	3.98	—
2019	22	A RAW	Great Lakes Loons	27	25	131	580	109	47	7	93%	4.9	18.8%	8.1%	10.7%	1.2%	5.00	3.21	—
2021	24	MIX MLE	3 levels	24	9	60	270	67	25	7	38%	2.5	20.7%	9.4%	11.4%	3.3%	6.03	4.36	—
2021	24	MIX RAW	3 levels	24	9	60	270	67	25	7	38%	2.5	24.8%	9.3%	15.6%	2.6%	6.03	3.64	—
2022	25	AA MLE	Arkansas Travelers	27	27	144	636	138	66	10	100%	5.3	17.6%	11.4%	6.2%	2.1%	4.51	4.20	—
2022	25	AA RAW	Arkansas Travelers	27	27	144	636	138	66	10	100%	5.3	21.7%	10.4%	11.3%	1.6%	4.51	3.46	—
2023	26	MIX MLE	2 levels	49	1	69	290	76	31	3	2%	1.4	21.3%	9.9%	11.3%	1.1%	3.76	3.16	—
2023	26	MIX RAW	2 levels	49	1	69	290	76	31	3	2%	1.4	26.2%	10.7%	15.5%	1.0%	3.76	2.81	—
2024	27	MLB MLE	San Diego Padres	42	0	47	211	39	12	4	0%	1.1	18.5%	5.7%	12.8%	1.8%	5.21	3.27	+0.7
2024	27	MLB MLE	San Diego Padres	42	0	47	211	39	12	4	0%	1.1	18.5%	5.7%	12.8%	1.8%	5.21	3.27	+0.7
2024	27	MLB RAW	San Diego Padres	42	0	47	211	39	12	4	0%	1.1	18.5%	5.7%	12.8%	1.9%	5.21	3.31	+0.7
2025	28	MIX MLE	2 levels	30	30	159	682	118	45	15	100%	5.3	16.5%	6.4%	10.1%	2.4%	4.31	3.83	+3.0
2025	28	MIX MLE	2 levels	30	30	159	682	118	45	15	100%	5.3	16.5%	6.4%	10.1%	2.4%	4.31	3.83	+3.0
2025	28	MIX RAW	2 levels	30	30	159	682	118	45	15	100%	5.3	17.3%	6.6%	10.7%	2.2%	4.31	3.69	+3.3
2026	29	MIX MLE	2 levels	15	15	73	307	51	16	9	100%	4.9	15.8%	5.1%	10.8%	3.2%	4.19	4.15	+1.1
2026	29	MIX MLE	2 levels	15	15	73	307	51	16	9	100%	4.9	15.8%	5.1%	10.8%	3.2%	4.19	4.15	+1.1
2026	29	MIX RAW	2 levels	15	15	73	307	51	16	9	100%	4.9	16.6%	5.2%	11.4%	2.9%	4.19	3.96	+1.3
▸ Career totals (raw MLB only — as recorded)
MLB Career	—			71	29	213	896	150	54	21	41%	3.0	16.7%	6.0%	10.7%	2.3%	4.13	3.73	+2.1
▸ 2027 season — projected remainder (no 2027 stats recorded)
2027	30	MLB	KC	30	0	31	131	22	7	4	0%	1.0	16.6%	5.4%	11.2%	2.8%	4.27	4.30	+0.1
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2028	31	MLB MLE	KC	33	0	35	147	23	8	4	0%	1.1	15.9%	5.7%	10.1%	3.0%	4.43	4.53	+0.0
2029	32	MLB MLE	KC	22	0	23	97	15	6	3	0%	1.0	15.1%	6.1%	9.0%	3.3%	4.64	4.79	-0.1
2028	31	MLB CTX	KC	31	0	33	139	22	8	4	0%	1.1	15.9%	5.7%	10.1%	3.0%	4.43	4.53	+0.0
2029	32	MLB CTX	KC	21	0	22	93	14	6	3	0%	1.0	15.1%	6.1%	9.0%	3.3%	4.64	4.79	-0.1
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		123	29	268	1127	186	68	28	24%	2.2	16.5%	6.0%	10.5%	2.5%	4.21	3.84	+2.3
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		92	22	200	841	139	51	21	24%	2.2	16.5%	6.0%	10.5%	2.5%	4.21	3.84	+1.7
Career	—	MLE		231	107	714	3099	534	260	64	46%	3.1	17.2%	8.4%	8.8%	2.1%	4.49	3.85	+2.0
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		65	30	200	868	150	73	18	46%	3.1	17.2%	8.4%	8.8%	2.1%	4.49	3.85	+1.5

How the minor-league lines were translated

One row per minor-league stint. Open a row to see each step: the raw rate, the park adjustment, the league/level factor, the age adjustment (hitters) and the resulting MLE rate. Factors are the same ones listed on the MLE Factors page.

2026 AAAOmaha Storm Chasers · 19 IPFIP 2.64 → 2.89 (+0.25)K% 20.5% → 17.6%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	20.48%	—	×0.860	17.61%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	4.82%	—	×0.900	4.34%
HR / BF /BF	1.20%	÷1.000	×1.100	1.33%

Factors used: pitcher AAA level factors (Triple-A 2023+ robo-zone set: walks improve on promotion) — K ×0.86, BB ×0.90, HR ×1.10. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 100).

Result: FIP 2.64 → 2.89, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2025 AAAOmaha Storm Chasers · 46 IPFIP 3.88 → 4.16 (+0.28)K% 18.6% → 16.0%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	18.55%	—	×0.860	15.95%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	6.79%	—	×0.900	6.11%
HR / BF /BF	2.71%	÷1.003	×1.100	2.98%

Result: FIP 3.88 → 4.16, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2023 AAATacoma Rainiers · 62 IPFIP 3.04 → 3.16 (+0.12)K% 24.7% → 21.3%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	24.71%	—	×0.860	21.25%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	11.03%	—	×0.900	9.92%
HR / BF /BF	1.14%	÷1.157	×1.100	1.08%

Result: FIP 3.04 → 3.16, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2023 AAArkansas Travelers · 8 IPFIP 0.60 → 1.35 (+0.75)K% 40.7% → 33.0%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	40.74%	—	×0.810	33.00%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	7.41%	—	×1.100	8.15%
HR / BF /BF	0.00%	÷0.853	×1.200	0.00%

Factors used: pitcher AA level factors — K ×0.81, BB ×1.10, HR ×1.20. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 71).

Result: FIP 0.60 → 1.35, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2022 AAArkansas Travelers · 144 IPFIP 3.45 → 4.20 (+0.76)K% 21.7% → 17.6%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	21.70%	—	×0.810	17.58%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	10.38%	—	×1.100	11.42%
HR / BF /BF	1.57%	÷0.909	×1.200	2.08%

Result: FIP 3.45 → 4.20, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2021 A+Everett AquaSox · 55 IPFIP 3.43 → 4.36 (+0.93)K% 26.9% → 20.7%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	26.94%	—	×0.770	20.74%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	8.16%	—	×1.150	9.39%
HR / BF /BF	2.86%	÷1.078	×1.250	3.31%

Factors used: pitcher A+ level factors — K ×0.77, BB ×1.15, HR ×1.25. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 116).

Result: FIP 3.43 → 4.36, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2019 AGreat Lakes Loons · 131 IPFIP 3.20 → 3.98 (+0.78)K% 18.8% → 13.9%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	18.79%	—	×0.740	13.91%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	8.10%	—	×1.180	9.56%
HR / BF /BF	1.21%	÷1.018	×1.300	1.54%

Factors used: pitcher A level factors — K ×0.74, BB ×1.18, HR ×1.30. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 104).

Result: FIP 3.20 → 3.98, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2018 AGreat Lakes Loons · 27 IPFIP 1.49 → 2.18 (+0.69)K% 26.5% → 19.6%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	26.47%	—	×0.740	19.59%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	4.90%	—	×1.180	5.78%
HR / BF /BF	0.00%	÷1.100	×1.300	0.00%

Result: FIP 1.49 → 2.18, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Stephen Kolek (OGILVIE)	—	—	—	—	—	2.8%	—	4.63	15.5%	9.7%	58	+0.33	—	—	—
Ross Ohlendorf R 2013 · 4.01 FIP	30	SW	4.01	18.2%	5.3%	3.2%	.265	4.18	23.5%	14.4%	122	+0.17	3.30	617	74
Ryan Jensen R 2005 · 4.35 FIP	29	SW	4.35	15.7%	5.2%	3.5%	.310	—	—	—	—	—	4.35	253	71
Tiago Da Silva R 2015 · 3.10 FIP	30	SW	3.10	19.6%	4.5%	2.0%	.278	2.38	21.4%	18.5%	98	-0.72	2.21	287	69
Jorge Martinez R 2016 · 3.53 FIP	31	SP-	3.53	12.9%	5.3%	1.6%	.266	3.71	16.5%	11.5%	154	+0.18	3.53	214	68
Todd Redmond R 2015 · 3.86 FIP	30	SW	3.86	15.4%	7.1%	2.1%	.311	—	—	—	—	—	3.21	247	67
Elian Leyva R 2019 · 4.30 FIP	30	SP-	4.30	17.0%	8.5%	2.9%	.323	—	—	—	—	—	3.10	158	67
Luke Hudson R 2006 · 3.81 FIP	29	SP-	3.81	14.5%	8.4%	1.6%	.307	—	—	—	—	—	3.81	235	65
Eder Llamas R 2016 · 4.12 FIP	30	SW	4.12	11.4%	6.8%	2.0%	.301	3.23	11.3%	4.6%	64	-0.89	3.23	171	65
Yoanner Negrin R 2015 · 3.79 FIP	31	SW	3.79	15.1%	7.5%	1.9%	.256	3.29	15.0%	8.5%	270	-0.50	3.15	485	65
Rodolfo Aguirre R 2015 · 4.29 FIP	30	SW	4.29	12.4%	6.9%	2.5%	.288	4.81	11.4%	1.3%	125	+0.52	3.39	212	65
Mike Burns R 2009 · 4.90 FIP	31	SP-	4.90	17.2%	6.6%	4.4%	.307	—	—	—	—	—	3.10	104	64
Wes Obermueller R 2007 · 4.83 FIP	30	SW	4.83	12.6%	11.2%	2.5%	.317	—	—	—	—	—	4.72	308	64
Philip Humber R 2013 · 4.82 FIP	30	SW	4.82	13.9%	7.3%	3.6%	.338	—	—	—	—	—	2.97	362	63
Scott Carroll R 2015 · 3.92 FIP	30	SW	3.92	12.7%	7.7%	1.7%	.286	5.07	11.2%	2.6%	128	+1.15	3.92	377	63
Odrisamer Despaigne R 2017 · 4.09 FIP	30	SW	4.09	13.7%	8.7%	1.9%	.270	3.53	19.1%	10.5%	220	-0.56	3.13	689	63
Juan Omar Espinoza R 2015 · 4.81 FIP	31	SP-	4.81	8.9%	6.6%	3.0%	.346	4.84	8.4%	-0.8%	52	+0.03	4.81	104	62
Donovan Hand R 2015 · 4.30 FIP	29	SW	4.30	11.1%	4.3%	2.9%	.305	4.56	12.5%	5.7%	140	+0.26	4.30	305	62
Chris Sampson R 2008 · 3.42 FIP	30	SW	3.42	12.8%	3.8%	1.7%	.281	4.08	12.7%	6.7%	86	+0.66	3.19	359	62
Chris Jakubauskas R 2009 · 4.97 FIP	30	SW	4.97	12.1%	6.2%	3.9%	.250	4.42	15.7%	7.8%	72	-0.55	4.42	165	62
Zach Neal R 2018 · 4.44 FIP	29	SW	4.44	13.8%	3.6%	3.7%	.307	—	—	—	—	—	4.24	732	62

Career Comps

Completed MLB careers (no pro action in 2+ yrs) whose totals — actual + projected — most resemble this player's. Pool: 1,234 reliever careers (754 from 1990-2025 + 480 historical, 1901-2023), also matched on career-to-date at the same age. * Historical (Lahman) careers: rates era-adjusted to 2001-24 league levels; WAR is an OGILVIE proxy.

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	1.5	51	16.5%	6.0%	0.99	4.22
Rusty Meacham ('01)	1.7	49	13.3%	6.2%	1.02	4.43
John Verhoeven ('76-'81, 1 WAR*)	1.0	68	16.7%*	7.3%*	1.04*	3.99*
Cristhian Martinez ('13)	1.0	52	19.1%	6.1%	0.83	4.02
Steve Crawford ('80-'91, 3 WAR*)	2.8	63	18.2%*	7.4%*	1.04*	4.28*
Max Leon ('73-'78, 2 WAR*)	1.6	62	18.3%*	7.1%*	1.26*	3.96*
Austin Pruitt ('24)	1.6	63	16.6%	5.6%	1.31	4.54