Stephen Kolek
P
Omaha Storm Chasers
+1.3
WAR
Age 29
RHP
6'3" / 210 lbs
AAA
peak 1.4 · 2026
ERA4.12
FIP4.17
xFIP4.16
SIERA4.39
K%17.9%
BB%7.1%
K-BB%10.8%
IP110
trajectory · 10 yrs
1.4peak
2026
STUF3535
CTRL6060
CMD4040
K†4040
FB Velo
p4394.0
Whiff%
p1017.7%
K%
p1216.7%
xwOBA vs
p420.321
FB+8.9 (50%)
CT+5.0 (15%)
CH+4.1 (12%)
SI (24%)
SL-4.6 (24%)
Career (MLE) + Projections
Park-neutral MLB-equivalent. MiLB translated via MLE factors. FIP-based WAR vs replacement FIP=5.3 (SP) / 4.95 (RP, <80 IP). FIP+ = runs above league-avg FIP · REP = replacement-level bonus.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | G | GS | IP | BF | K | BB | HR | K% | BB% | HR% | ERA | FIP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2018 | 21 | A | Great Lakes Loons | 17 | 0 | 32 | 123 | 30 | 6 | 1 | 19.6% | 5.8% | 0.0% | 1.42 | 2.18 | +1.0 |
| 2019 | 22 | A | Great Lakes Loons | 27 | 25 | 131 | 580 | 109 | 47 | 7 | 13.9% | 9.6% | 1.5% | 5.00 | 3.99 | +2.0 |
| 2021 | 24 | AA | Arkansas Travelers | 24 | 9 | 60 | 270 | 67 | 25 | 7 | 20.7% | 9.4% | 3.3% | 6.03 | 4.36 | +0.4 |
| 2022 | 25 | AA | Arkansas Travelers | 27 | 27 | 144 | 636 | 138 | 66 | 10 | 17.6% | 11.4% | 2.1% | 4.51 | 4.20 | +1.8 |
| 2023 | 26 | AAA | Tacoma Rainiers | 49 | 1 | 69 | 290 | 76 | 31 | 3 | 21.7% | 11.6% | 1.1% | 3.76 | 3.34 | +1.3 |
| 2024 | 27 | MLB | San Diego Padres | 42 | 0 | 47 | 211 | 39 | 12 | 4 | 18.5% | 5.7% | 1.7% | 5.21 | 3.20 | +0.9 |
| 2025 | 28 | MLB | Kansas City Royals | 30 | 30 | 159 | 682 | 118 | 45 | 15 | 16.6% | 6.7% | 2.4% | 4.31 | 3.84 | +2.6 |
| ▸ 2026 Season | ||||||||||||||||
| 2026 | 29 | AAA | Omaha Storm Chasers | 1 | 1 | 4 | 15 | 2 | 1 | 0 | — | — | — | 0.00 | — | — |
| ROS | 29 | MLB | KC | 20 | 20 | 110 | 466 | 80 | 34 | 11 | 17.1% | 7.2% | 2.4% | 4.27 | 4.28 | +1.3 |
| 2026 Total | 29 | MLB | KC | — | — | 114 | 481 | 82 | 35 | 11 | 17.0% | 7.2% | 2.3% | 4.12 | 4.13 | +1.5 |
| ▸ 2027+ Projections — Marcel base + age-bracket aging | ||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 30 | MLB | KC | 19 | 19 | 107 | 452 | 75 | 33 | 11 | 16.6% | 7.3% | 2.5% | 4.33 | 4.37 | +1.1 |
| 2028 | 31 | MLB | KC | 19 | 19 | 103 | 437 | 70 | 33 | 11 | 16.0% | 7.5% | 2.5% | 4.42 | 4.48 | +1.0 |
| 2029 | 32 | MLB | KC | 18 | 18 | 99 | 419 | 64 | 32 | 11 | 15.3% | 7.6% | 2.6% | 4.52 | 4.59 | +0.8 |
| 2030 | 33 | MLB | KC | 17 | 17 | 95 | 400 | 59 | 31 | 11 | 14.7% | 7.8% | 2.7% | 4.64 | 4.72 | +0.6 |
| 2031 | 34 | MLB | KC | 16 | 16 | 90 | 380 | 53 | 30 | 11 | 14.0% | 8.0% | 2.8% | 4.77 | 4.86 | +0.4 |
| 2032 | 35 | MLB | KC | 15 | 15 | 85 | 358 | 47 | 30 | 10 | 13.2% | 8.2% | 2.9% | 4.91 | 5.01 | +0.2 |
| 2033 | 36 | MLB | KC | 14 | 14 | 79 | 335 | 48 | 26 | 10 | 14.4% | 7.7% | 3.0% | 4.91 | 4.90 | +0.2 |
| 2034 | 37 | MLB | KC | 13 | 13 | 74 | 311 | 42 | 25 | 10 | 13.6% | 8.0% | 3.2% | 5.01 | 5.08 | -0.0 |
| ▸ Career (all levels · actual + projected) | ||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | 217 | 93 | 645 | 2807 | 490 | 253 | 54 | 17.4% | 9.0% | 1.9% | 4.49 | 3.83 | +10.8 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 67 | 29 | 200 | 870 | 152 | 78 | 17 | 17.4% | 9.0% | 1.9% | 4.49 | 3.83 | +3.3 | ||
Career Path Comps
What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection
| Profile at Match Age | Next 3 Yrs | Career | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Comp | Age | Role | FIP | K% | BB% | HR/BF | BABIP | FIP | K% | K-BB% | IP | ΔFIP | Low FIP | IP | Match |
| Stephen Kolek (OGILVIE) | — | — | 4.28 | 17.1% | 7.2% | 2.4% | — | 4.48 | 16.0% | 8.5% | 310 | +0.20 | — | — | — |
| Shawn Haviland R 2026 · 3.95 FIP | 29 | SP- | 3.95 | 14.6% | 6.0% | 2.4% | .303 | 4.69 | 16.1% | 8.8% | 169 | +0.74 | 3.69 | 283 | 80 |
| Michael Bowden R 2025 · 3.20 FIP | 28 | SP- | 3.20 | 17.3% | 6.4% | 1.4% | .282 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.20 | 141 | 78 |
| Jeremy Kehrt R 2026 · 3.38 FIP | 29 | SP- | 3.38 | 15.2% | 5.3% | 1.6% | .297 | 4.25 | 12.1% | 3.9% | 143 | +0.87 | 3.38 | 262 | 78 |
| Hector Noesí R 2025 · 4.38 FIP | 28 | SP- | 4.38 | 17.6% | 8.1% | 3.2% | .261 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.38 | 250 | 78 |
| Juan Delgadillo R 2029 · 4.56 FIP | 32 | SP- | 4.56 | 15.5% | 7.2% | 3.4% | .316 | 4.46 | 10.9% | 4.7% | 39 | -0.10 | 4.46 | 143 | 78 |
| Ervin Santana R 2029 · 4.00 FIP | 32 | SP- | 4.00 | 17.1% | 7.1% | 2.6% | .273 | 4.12 | 19.2% | 12.4% | 417 | +0.12 | 3.75 | 720 | 78 |
| Bruce Billings R 2026 · 3.11 FIP | 29 | SP- | 3.11 | 15.6% | 5.6% | 1.1% | .309 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.11 | 121 | 78 |
| Jason Berken R 2028 · 4.36 FIP | 31 | SP- | 4.36 | 13.5% | 6.6% | 2.9% | .315 | 4.51 | 11.5% | 3.2% | 106 | +0.15 | 4.36 | 219 | 77 |
| Mario Gonzalez R 2026 · 3.93 FIP | 29 | SP- | 3.93 | 17.9% | 5.7% | 2.9% | .276 | 4.35 | 14.1% | 9.1% | 104 | +0.42 | 3.93 | 368 | 77 |
| Elian Leyva R 2026 · 3.11 FIP | 29 | SP- | 3.11 | 17.7% | 7.3% | 1.0% | .308 | 4.30 | 17.0% | 8.5% | 71 | +1.19 | 3.11 | 158 | 77 |
| Odrisamer Despaigne R 2026 · 4.00 FIP | 29 | SP- | 4.00 | 15.3% | 8.5% | 2.0% | .316 | 3.75 | 17.1% | 8.5% | 348 | -0.25 | 3.14 | 593 | 77 |
| Mitch Atkins R 2027 · 3.70 FIP | 30 | SP- | 3.70 | 21.4% | 8.2% | 2.5% | .341 | 4.75 | 14.3% | 6.2% | 78 | +1.05 | 3.70 | 205 | 76 |
| Jose Pina R 2026 · 4.86 FIP | 29 | SP- | 4.86 | 16.9% | 9.2% | 3.7% | .231 | 3.67 | 13.6% | 6.9% | 246 | -1.19 | 3.65 | 424 | 76 |
| Barry Enright R 2026 · 3.41 FIP | 29 | SP- | 3.41 | 15.9% | 4.4% | 2.0% | .306 | 3.90 | 13.3% | 9.2% | 226 | +0.49 | 3.20 | 315 | 76 |
| Ramon Ramirez R 2029 · 3.56 FIP | 32 | SP- | 3.56 | 16.9% | 9.7% | 1.2% | .310 | 5.29 | 9.2% | -4.9% | 29 | +1.73 | 3.56 | 155 | 75 |
| Bud Norris R 2027 · 4.64 FIP | 30 | SP- | 4.64 | 18.8% | 8.2% | 3.8% | .327 | 3.81 | 24.2% | 15.5% | 233 | -0.83 | 3.39 | 316 | 75 |
| Jose Samayoa R 2026 · 4.08 FIP | 29 | SP- | 4.08 | 19.4% | 7.0% | 3.1% | .314 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.45 | 262 | 75 |
| Patrick Johnson R 2027 · 4.13 FIP | 30 | SP- | 4.13 | 15.7% | 9.3% | 2.2% | .344 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.89 | 248 | 75 |
| Cesar Carrillo R 2028 · 4.16 FIP | 31 | SP- | 4.16 | 13.8% | 9.7% | 1.8% | .307 | 4.46 | 12.6% | 2.6% | 145 | +0.30 | 4.16 | 325 | 74 |
| Scott McGregor R 2025 · 4.41 FIP | 28 | SP- | 4.41 | 11.8% | 7.6% | 2.4% | .293 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.41 | 107 | 74 |
Contract
No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.