Stephen Kolek
P
Kansas City Royals
Age 29
RHP
6'3" / 210 lbs
MLB
peak 0.3 · 2026
ILFamily Medical Emergency (FME)
2026 ROS PROJECTION70 act + 38 ip · rates below = ROS only
wRC+ AGAINSTvL 10797vR 88
ERA3.99
FIP4.00
K%16.2%
BB%6.4%
K-BB%9.8%
ROS IP38
Value2026 · WAR
Runs saved vs league avg · 109 IP
Grades · Statcast · Arsenal · Contract
Statcast Percentiles
FB Velo
p4594.2
Whiff%
p1119.8%
K%
p1015.2%
xwOBA vs
p590.303
FB+8.9 (50%)
CT+5.0 (15%)
CH+4.1 (12%)
SI (24%)
SL-4.6 (24%)
Contract
No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.
Career Stats + Projections
Viewactual = stats as recorded (seasons combined) + projected real-world MLB lines · MLE = level/park-neutral translations
Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed
Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | G | GS | IP | BF | K | BB | HR | GS% | IP/G | K% | BB% | K-BB% | HR% | ERA | FIP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2018 | 21 | MIX | 2 levels | 17 | 0 | 32 | 123 | 30 | 6 | 1 | 0% | 1.9 | 19.6% | 5.8% | 13.8% | 0.0% | 1.42 | 2.18 | — |
| 2018 | 21 | MIX | 2 levels | 17 | 0 | 32 | 123 | 30 | 6 | 1 | 0% | 1.9 | 24.4% | 4.9% | 19.5% | 0.8% | 1.42 | 2.18 | — |
| 2019 | 22 | A | Great Lakes Loons | 27 | 25 | 131 | 580 | 109 | 47 | 7 | 93% | 4.9 | 13.9% | 9.6% | 4.3% | 1.5% | 5.00 | 3.97 | — |
| 2019 | 22 | A | Great Lakes Loons | 27 | 25 | 131 | 580 | 109 | 47 | 7 | 93% | 4.9 | 18.8% | 8.1% | 10.7% | 1.2% | 5.00 | 3.21 | — |
| 2021 | 24 | MIX | 3 levels | 24 | 9 | 60 | 270 | 67 | 25 | 7 | 38% | 2.5 | 20.7% | 9.4% | 11.4% | 3.1% | 6.03 | 4.23 | — |
| 2021 | 24 | MIX | 3 levels | 24 | 9 | 60 | 270 | 67 | 25 | 7 | 38% | 2.5 | 24.8% | 9.3% | 15.6% | 2.6% | 6.03 | 3.64 | — |
| 2022 | 25 | AA | Arkansas Travelers | 27 | 27 | 144 | 636 | 138 | 66 | 10 | 100% | 5.3 | 17.6% | 11.4% | 6.2% | 2.3% | 4.51 | 4.33 | — |
| 2022 | 25 | AA | Arkansas Travelers | 27 | 27 | 144 | 636 | 138 | 66 | 10 | 100% | 5.3 | 21.7% | 10.4% | 11.3% | 1.6% | 4.51 | 3.46 | — |
| 2023 | 26 | MIX | 2 levels | 49 | 1 | 69 | 290 | 76 | 31 | 3 | 2% | 1.4 | 21.7% | 11.6% | 10.2% | 1.0% | 3.76 | 3.25 | — |
| 2023 | 26 | MIX | 2 levels | 49 | 1 | 69 | 290 | 76 | 31 | 3 | 2% | 1.4 | 26.2% | 10.7% | 15.5% | 1.0% | 3.76 | 2.81 | — |
| 2024 | 27 | MLB | San Diego Padres | 42 | 0 | 47 | 211 | 39 | 12 | 4 | 0% | 1.1 | 18.5% | 5.7% | 12.8% | 2.0% | 5.21 | 3.38 | +0.6 |
| 2024 | 27 | MLB | San Diego Padres | 42 | 0 | 47 | 211 | 39 | 12 | 4 | 0% | 1.1 | 18.5% | 5.7% | 12.8% | 1.9% | 5.21 | 3.31 | +0.7 |
| 2025 | 28 | MIX | 2 levels | 30 | 30 | 159 | 682 | 118 | 45 | 15 | 100% | 5.3 | 16.6% | 6.7% | 9.9% | 2.4% | 4.31 | 3.85 | +2.9 |
| 2025 | 28 | MIX | 2 levels | 30 | 30 | 159 | 682 | 118 | 45 | 15 | 100% | 5.3 | 17.3% | 6.6% | 10.7% | 2.2% | 4.31 | 3.69 | +3.2 |
| ▸ 2026 Season | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2026 | 29 | MLB | Kansas City Royals | 14 | 14 | 70 | 293 | 48 | 16 | 9 | 100% | 5.0 | 15.8% | 5.5% | 10.3% | 3.1% | 4.09 | 4.17 | +0.5 |
| ROS | 29 | MLB | KC | 6 | 6 | 38 | 162 | 26 | 10 | 4 | 100% | 6.4 | 16.2% | 6.4% | 9.8% | 2.7% | 3.99 | 4.00 | +0.2 |
| ROS | 29 | MLB | KC | 6 | 6 | 38 | 160 | 26 | 10 | 4 | 100% | 6.3 | 16.2% | 6.4% | 9.8% | 2.7% | 3.99 | 4.00 | +0.2 |
| 2026 TOT | 29 | MLB | KC | — | — | 109 | 455 | 74 | 26 | 13 | — | — | 16.3% | 5.8% | 10.5% | 2.9% | 4.06 | 4.11 | +1.6 |
| 2026 FULL | 29 | MLB | KC | — | — | 92 | 390 | 74 | 26 | 13 | — | — | 19.0% | 6.8% | 12.3% | 3.4% | 4.78 | 4.22 | +1.1 |
| ▸ 2027+ Projections WITH CONTEXT · MLB TIME ONLY ⓘ | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 30 | MLB | KC | 17 | 17 | 104 | 438 | 67 | 29 | 13 | 100% | 6.1 | 15.3% | 6.7% | 8.6% | 3.0% | 4.59 | 4.67 | +0.9 |
| 2028 | 31 | MLB | KC | 15 | 15 | 97 | 409 | 59 | 29 | 13 | 100% | 6.5 | 14.5% | 7.0% | 7.5% | 3.2% | 4.78 | 4.91 | +0.5 |
| 2029 | 32 | MLB | KC | 14 | 14 | 90 | 378 | 52 | 28 | 13 | 100% | 6.4 | 13.7% | 7.4% | 6.3% | 3.5% | 5.01 | 5.16 | +0.0 |
| 2027 | 30 | MLB | KC | 16 | 16 | 99 | 418 | 64 | 28 | 13 | 100% | 6.2 | 15.3% | 6.7% | 8.6% | 3.0% | 4.59 | 4.67 | +0.8 |
| 2028 | 31 | MLB | KC | 15 | 15 | 92 | 388 | 56 | 27 | 13 | 100% | 6.1 | 14.5% | 7.0% | 7.5% | 3.2% | 4.78 | 4.91 | +0.3 |
| 2029 | 32 | MLB | KC | 14 | 14 | 85 | 359 | 49 | 27 | 12 | 100% | 6.1 | 13.7% | 7.4% | 6.3% | 3.5% | 5.01 | 5.16 | -0.1 |
| ▸ Career (MLB actual + context projections) | |||||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | 123 | 81 | 527 | 2221 | 346 | 146 | 63 | 66% | 4.3 | 15.6% | 6.6% | 9.0% | 2.8% | 4.46 | 4.17 | +7.6 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 47 | 31 | 200 | 843 | 131 | 55 | 24 | 66% | 4.3 | 15.6% | 6.6% | 9.0% | 2.8% | 4.46 | 4.17 | +2.9 | ||
| Career | — | 230 | 106 | 711 | 3085 | 534 | 268 | 64 | 46% | 3.1 | 17.3% | 8.7% | 8.6% | 2.1% | 4.48 | 3.88 | +12.6 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 65 | 30 | 200 | 867 | 150 | 75 | 18 | 46% | 3.1 | 17.3% | 8.7% | 8.6% | 2.1% | 4.48 | 3.88 | +3.6 | ||
Career Path Comps
What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection
| Profile at Match Age | Next 3 Yrs | Career | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Comp | Age | Role | FIP | K% | BB% | HR/BF | BABIP | FIP | K% | K-BB% | IP | ΔFIP | Low FIP | IP | Match |
| Stephen Kolek (OGILVIE) | — | — | 4.31 | 16.6% | 7.0% | 2.4% | — | 4.90 | 14.6% | 7.6% | 290 | +0.59 | — | — | — |
| Michael Bowden R 2025 · 3.25 FIP | 28 | SP- | 3.25 | 17.3% | 6.4% | 1.4% | .282 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.25 | 141 | 77 |
| Odrisamer Despaigne R 2026 · 4.28 FIP | 29 | SW | 4.28 | 15.3% | 8.5% | 2.6% | .316 | 3.71 | 17.1% | 8.5% | 348 | -0.57 | 3.16 | 593 | 75 |
| Jason Berken R 2028 · 4.69 FIP | 31 | SW | 4.69 | 13.5% | 6.6% | 3.5% | .315 | 4.31 | 11.5% | 3.2% | 106 | -0.38 | 4.31 | 219 | 75 |
| Scott McGregor R 2025 · 4.19 FIP | 28 | SP- | 4.19 | 11.8% | 7.6% | 2.1% | .293 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.19 | 107 | 74 |
| Daniel McCutchen R 2029 · 4.47 FIP | 32 | SP- | 4.47 | 13.9% | 4.4% | 3.6% | .268 | 4.60 | 10.8% | 4.9% | 155 | +0.13 | 4.47 | 287 | 73 |
| Jake Brigham R 2024 · 3.15 FIP | 27 | SW | 3.15 | 15.0% | 6.5% | 0.9% | .318 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.15 | 108 | 72 |
| Colin Bates R 2024 · 4.59 FIP | 27 | SP- | 4.59 | 10.5% | 6.5% | 2.9% | .301 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.59 | 111 | 72 |
| Kris Medlen R 2026 · 4.77 FIP | 29 | SP- | 4.77 | 15.4% | 6.4% | 4.0% | .261 | 5.16 | 17.1% | 8.6% | 173 | +0.39 | 4.66 | 261 | 71 |
| Jacob Turner R 2024 · 4.69 FIP | 27 | SP- | 4.69 | 14.9% | 8.8% | 3.2% | .297 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.34 | 340 | 71 |
| Donovan Hand R 2026 · 4.29 FIP | 29 | SW | 4.29 | 11.1% | 4.3% | 2.9% | .305 | 4.30 | 12.5% | 5.7% | 140 | +0.01 | 4.29 | 237 | 71 |
| Tiago Da Silva R 2027 · 3.30 FIP | 30 | SW | 3.30 | 19.6% | 4.5% | 2.4% | .278 | 2.36 | 21.4% | 18.5% | 98 | -0.94 | 2.11 | 287 | 71 |
| Shawn Haviland R 2026 · 3.93 FIP | 29 | SP- | 3.93 | 14.6% | 6.0% | 2.4% | .303 | 4.49 | 16.1% | 8.8% | 169 | +0.56 | 3.57 | 283 | 70 |
| Scott Carroll R 2027 · 3.78 FIP | 30 | SW | 3.78 | 12.7% | 7.7% | 1.4% | .286 | 5.39 | 11.2% | 2.6% | 128 | +1.61 | 3.78 | 248 | 70 |
| Hector Noesí R 2025 · 4.21 FIP | 28 | SP- | 4.21 | 17.6% | 8.1% | 2.9% | .261 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.21 | 250 | 70 |
| Kanekoa Texeira R 2026 · 4.12 FIP | 29 | SP- | 4.12 | 14.5% | 11.2% | 1.5% | .280 | 4.05 | 10.2% | -0.2% | 63 | -0.07 | 4.05 | 165 | 70 |
| Mitch Atkins R 2027 · 3.37 FIP | 30 | SP- | 3.37 | 21.4% | 8.2% | 1.9% | .341 | 4.49 | 14.3% | 6.2% | 78 | +1.12 | 3.37 | 205 | 69 |
| Jorge Martinez R 2028 · 3.42 FIP | 31 | SP- | 3.42 | 12.9% | 5.3% | 1.4% | .266 | 3.59 | 16.5% | 11.5% | 154 | +0.17 | 3.42 | 214 | 69 |
| Fabio Castillo R 2025 · 4.00 FIP | 28 | SP- | 4.00 | 20.9% | 8.8% | 2.8% | .291 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.13 | 195 | 68 |
| Yohan Pino R 2028 · 3.95 FIP | 31 | SP- | 3.95 | 17.8% | 5.8% | 2.9% | .312 | 5.48 | 15.2% | 11.6% | 35 | +1.53 | 3.95 | 133 | 68 |
| Seth Simmons R 2025 · 4.36 FIP | 28 | SW | 4.36 | 18.1% | 8.1% | 3.2% | .262 | 6.19 | 13.3% | 2.4% | 54 | +1.83 | 3.06 | 251 | 68 |
Career Comps
Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 327 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).
| Player | Yrs | IP/yr | K% | BB% | HR/9 | ERA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION | 4 | 96 | 15.1% | 7.0% | 1.17 | 4.67 |
| Doug Fister ('18) | 4 | 110 | 15.8% | 7.5% | 1.19 | 4.56 |
| Daniel Mengden ('19) | 4 | 73 | 17.3% | 7.7% | 1.24 | 4.68 |
| Matt Manning ('24) | 4 | 64 | 16.4% | 7.8% | 1.06 | 4.43 |
| Matt Garza ('17) | 3 | 122 | 15.5% | 8.5% | 1.26 | 5.10 |
| Chad Bettis ('19) | 5 | 106 | 16.7% | 7.8% | 1.17 | 4.90 |
| Brett Anderson ('21) | 6 | 106 | 14.2% | 6.2% | 0.99 | 4.20 |