Jovani Morán — OGILVIE

Jovani Morán P Boston Red Sox

Age 29 LHP 6'1" / 167 lbs MLB peak 0.6 · 2026

2026 ROS PROJECTION65 act + 5 ip · rates below = ROS only

showingROS

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 7987vR 95

ERA3.56

FIP3.48

K%27.6%

BB%9.3%

K-BB%18.3%

ROS IP5

Value2026 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 70 IP

Grades · Statcast · Arsenal · Contract

Scouting Grades

STUF7070

CTRL3030

CMD5555

K†6565

Statcast Percentiles

FB Velo

p2692.8

Whiff%

p9031.5%

p7326.4%

xwOBA vs

p790.284

CT+1.6 (12%)

FB+1.2 (48%)

SL+0.7 (5%)

CH+0.6 (35%)

SI (9%)

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2026 so far)
2015	18	ROK MLE	GCL Twins	6	6	20	84	17	9	0	100%	3.3	13.8%	13.4%	0.4%	0.0%	4.12	3.63	—
2015	18	ROK RAW	GCL Twins	6	6	20	84	17	9	0	100%	3.3	20.2%	10.7%	9.5%	0.0%	4.12	2.74	—
2017	20	ROK MLE	Elizabethton Twins	11	0	25	90	45	6	1	0%	2.2	34.0%	8.3%	25.7%	1.6%	0.36	2.14	—
2017	20	ROK RAW	Elizabethton Twins	11	0	25	90	45	6	1	0%	2.2	50.0%	6.7%	43.3%	1.1%	0.36	0.71	—
2018	21	MIX MLE	2 levels	37	1	76	300	107	35	2	3%	2.1	26.8%	13.7%	13.1%	0.8%	2.25	2.99	—
2018	21	MIX RAW	2 levels	37	1	76	300	107	35	2	3%	2.1	35.7%	11.7%	24.0%	0.7%	2.25	2.01	—
2019	22	MIX MLE	2 levels	23	0	38	166	55	24	3	0%	1.6	26.6%	15.9%	10.7%	2.4%	4.54	4.17	—
2019	22	MIX RAW	2 levels	23	0	38	166	55	24	3	0%	1.6	33.1%	14.5%	18.7%	1.8%	4.54	3.13	—
2021	24	MIX MLE	3 levels	40	0	75	299	119	37	6	0%	1.9	35.0%	12.3%	22.7%	2.4%	2.99	3.01	+1.4
2021	24	MIX RAW	3 levels	40	0	75	299	119	37	6	0%	1.9	39.8%	12.4%	27.4%	2.0%	2.99	2.45	+1.9
2022	25	MIX MLE	2 levels	51	0	65	276	97	32	2	0%	1.3	33.3%	11.8%	21.4%	0.9%	3.62	2.29	+1.8
2022	25	MIX RAW	2 levels	51	0	65	276	97	32	2	0%	1.3	35.1%	11.6%	23.6%	0.7%	3.62	1.99	+2.0
2023	26	MIX MLE	2 levels	49	0	51	223	56	35	3	0%	1.0	26.1%	14.1%	12.0%	1.6%	4.62	3.58	+0.6
2023	26	MIX MLE	2 levels	49	0	51	223	56	35	3	0%	1.0	26.1%	14.1%	12.0%	1.6%	4.62	3.58	+0.6
2023	26	MIX RAW	2 levels	49	0	51	223	56	35	3	0%	1.0	25.1%	15.7%	9.4%	1.3%	4.62	3.73	+0.5
2025	28	MIX MLE	4 levels	28	5	39	173	62	13	2	18%	1.4	28.1%	3.8%	24.3%	1.9%	4.12	2.25	+1.1
2025	28	MIX MLE	4 levels	28	5	39	173	62	13	2	18%	1.4	28.1%	3.8%	24.3%	1.9%	4.12	2.25	+1.1
2025	28	MIX RAW	4 levels	28	5	39	173	62	13	2	18%	1.4	35.8%	7.5%	28.3%	1.2%	4.12	1.60	+1.4
▸ Career totals (raw MLB only — as recorded)
MLB Career	—			128	3	157	664	185	84	12	2%	1.2	27.9%	12.7%	15.2%	1.8%	3.90	3.34	+2.3
▸ 2026 season
YTD	29	MLB MLE	Boston Red Sox	49	3	65	268	72	30	9	6%	1.3	26.4%	11.6%	14.7%	3.6%	3.18	4.31	+0.2
YTD	29	MLB MLE	Boston Red Sox	49	3	65	268	72	30	9	6%	1.3	26.4%	11.6%	14.7%	3.6%	3.18	4.31	+0.2
▸ 2026 season — so far · projected rest · full
2026	29	AAA RAW	BOS	2	0	3	10	4	0	0	0%	1.5	40.0%	0.0%	40.0%	0.0%	0.00	-0.28	—
2026	29	MLB RAW	BOS	47	3	62	258	68	30	9	6%	1.3	26.4%	11.6%	14.7%	3.5%	3.34	4.26	+0.2
SO FAR	29	MLB RAW	BOS	47	3	62	258	68	30	9	6%	1.3	26.4%	11.6%	14.7%	3.5%	3.34	4.26	+0.2
ROS	29	MLB MLE	BOS	5	0	5	23	6	2	1	0%	1.1	27.6%	9.3%	18.3%	2.8%	3.56	3.48	+0.1
ROS	29	MLB CTX	BOS	5	0	5	21	6	2	1	0%	1.0	27.6%	9.3%	18.3%	2.8%	3.56	3.48	+0.1
2026 TOT	29	MLB MLE	BOS	—	—	70	291	78	32	10	—	—	26.9%	11.0%	15.9%	3.3%	3.21	4.25	+0.3
FULL	29	MLB A+C	BOS	—	—	67	284	78	32	10	—	—	27.5%	11.3%	16.2%	3.4%	3.36	4.07	+0.3
▸ Career projection (2027+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2027	30	MLB MLE	BOS	57	0	60	251	68	24	8	0%	1.0	27.2%	9.5%	17.6%	3.2%	4.08	4.13	+0.3
2028	31	MLB MLE	BOS	53	0	56	234	62	23	8	0%	1.0	26.4%	9.9%	16.5%	3.4%	4.25	4.36	+0.1
2027	30	MLB CTX	BOS	54	0	57	241	65	23	8	0%	1.1	27.2%	9.5%	17.6%	3.2%	4.08	4.13	+0.3
2028	31	MLB CTX	BOS	50	0	53	224	59	22	8	0%	1.1	26.4%	9.9%	16.5%	3.4%	4.25	4.36	+0.1
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		237	3	272	1148	315	131	28	1%	1.1	27.4%	11.4%	16.0%	2.4%	4.00	3.55	+3.2
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		175	2	200	845	232	96	21	1%	1.1	27.4%	11.4%	16.0%	2.4%	4.00	3.55	+2.4
Career	—	MLE		294	15	453	1879	541	225	34	5%	1.5	28.8%	12.0%	16.8%	1.8%	3.30	3.17	+2.7
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		130	7	200	830	239	99	15	5%	1.5	28.8%	12.0%	16.8%	1.8%	3.30	3.17	+2.0

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Jovani Morán (OGILVIE)	—	—	3.44	29.1%	7.5%	2.7%	—	4.24	26.8%	17.1%	115	+0.80	—	—	—
Zac Rosscup L 2017 · 2.85 FIP	29	SU	2.85	29.5%	7.8%	2.3%	.275	4.42	26.4%	5.9%	35	+1.57	2.56	160	78
Boone Logan L 2015 · 2.96 FIP	30	SU	2.96	26.2%	9.5%	1.6%	.352	3.05	29.7%	20.6%	78	+0.09	2.58	113	76
Mike Dunn L 2015 · 3.75 FIP	30	SU	3.75	27.7%	11.9%	2.7%	.294	4.21	22.5%	10.9%	110	+0.46	3.71	181	74
Sammy Solís L 2018 · 4.39 FIP	29	SU	4.39	24.9%	9.6%	4.0%	.330	4.05	26.2%	17.3%	23	-0.34	2.51	190	74
Antonio Bastardo L 2015 · 3.10 FIP	29	SU	3.10	26.8%	10.0%	1.8%	.238	5.27	22.6%	11.3%	88	+2.17	3.10	145	74
Marc Rzepczynski L 2015 · 2.73 FIP	29	SU	2.73	25.9%	6.3%	1.8%	.356	3.73	19.4%	7.9%	101	+1.00	2.73	181	73
Adam Liberatore L 2016 · 2.38 FIP	29	SU	2.38	26.7%	7.4%	1.1%	.281	4.28	18.6%	9.5%	30	+1.90	2.38	124	72
Kyle Regnault L 2018 · 3.82 FIP	29	SU	3.82	27.6%	9.7%	3.3%	.367	—	—	—	—	—	2.88	204	72
Luis Avilán L 2018 · 2.66 FIP	29	SU	2.66	25.9%	7.6%	1.4%	.320	4.51	21.3%	11.4%	32	+1.85	2.62	256	71
Jake Diekman L 2016 · 3.23 FIP	29	SU	3.23	26.7%	11.3%	1.7%	.241	3.09	28.6%	15.8%	115	-0.14	2.36	455	70
Josh Smoker L 2018 · 3.66 FIP	29	SU	3.66	22.1%	8.4%	2.5%	.318	6.58	14.2%	3.4%	14	+2.92	2.71	230	70
Tony Sipp L 2015 · 2.80 FIP	32	SU	2.80	28.7%	6.5%	2.4%	.267	4.45	23.8%	15.0%	120	+1.65	2.22	195	70
Brooks Raley L 2020 · 3.31 FIP	32	SU	3.31	32.1%	7.1%	3.7%	.208	2.82	28.4%	20.4%	157	-0.49	1.74	255	70
Rex Brothers L 2017 · 3.10 FIP	29	SU	3.10	31.4%	8.6%	2.9%	.333	4.34	29.0%	8.9%	86	+1.24	3.10	205	69
Zach Phillips L 2016 · 3.01 FIP	29	SU	3.01	27.4%	11.9%	1.3%	.370	3.20	19.2%	10.6%	86	+0.19	2.33	202	69
Edward Paredes L 2016 · 3.47 FIP	29	SU	3.47	24.1%	13.0%	1.4%	.225	3.55	23.7%	14.0%	86	+0.08	2.36	130	68
Andrew Chafin L 2019 · 3.11 FIP	29	SU	3.11	30.2%	8.0%	2.8%	.346	2.88	25.7%	18.4%	126	-0.23	2.42	531	68
Felix Doubront L 2017 · 4.12 FIP	29	SU	4.12	23.7%	9.0%	3.4%	.304	3.44	17.6%	12.6%	126	-0.68	3.44	291	68
Kevin Siegrist L 2017 · 3.95 FIP	28	SU	3.95	25.0%	11.6%	2.7%	.327	—	—	—	—	—	2.72	176	68
Ryan O'Rourke L 2016 · 3.05 FIP	28	SU	3.05	23.4%	6.7%	1.9%	.284	4.08	22.1%	7.8%	56	+1.03	3.05	145	67

Career Comps

Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 133 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	0.9	59	27.6%	8.9%	1.18	3.93
Colin Poche ('24)	1.0	52	27.0%	9.2%	1.34	3.63
Noé Ramirez ('22)	1.3	52	24.8%	9.0%	1.33	4.19
Blake Parker ('21)	1.2	60	26.6%	7.3%	1.40	3.36
Diego Castillo ('22)	1.3	52	28.1%	8.9%	1.07	3.12
Brad Peacock ('19)	1.6	80	28.7%	9.2%	1.18	3.48
Adbert Alzolay ('23)	1.1	70	26.1%	7.0%	1.32	3.84