Jovani Morán
P
Boston Red Sox
Age 29
LHP
6'1" / 167 lbs
MLB
Svc 1.0 · Ctrl thru 2030
peak 0.6 · 2026
2026 ROS PROJECTION41 act + 25 ip · rates below = ROS only
wRC+ AGAINSTvL 6675vR 85
ERA3.29
FIP3.20
K%30.4%
BB%8.8%
K-BB%21.6%
ROS IP25
Value2026 · WAR
Runs saved vs league avg · 66 IP
━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit
Grades · Statcast · Arsenal · Contract
Statcast Percentiles
FB Velo
p2192.4
Whiff%
p9034.3%
K%
p9030.1%
xwOBA vs
p900.263
CT+1.6 (15%)
FB+1.2 (44%)
SL+0.7 (5%)
CH+0.6 (37%)
SI (4%)
Career Stats + Projections
Viewactual = stats as recorded (seasons combined) + projected real-world MLB lines · MLE = level/park-neutral translations
Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed
Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | G | GS | IP | BF | K | BB | HR | GS% | IP/G | K% | BB% | K-BB% | HR% | ERA | FIP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2015 | 18 | ROK | GCL Twins | 6 | 6 | 20 | 84 | 17 | 9 | 0 | 100% | 3.3 | 13.8% | 13.4% | 0.4% | 0.0% | 4.12 | 3.63 | — |
| 2015 | 18 | ROK | GCL Twins | 6 | 6 | 20 | 84 | 17 | 9 | 0 | 100% | 3.3 | 20.2% | 10.7% | 9.5% | 0.0% | 4.12 | 2.74 | — |
| 2017 | 20 | ROK | Elizabethton Twins | 11 | 0 | 25 | 90 | 45 | 6 | 1 | 0% | 2.2 | 34.0% | 8.3% | 25.7% | 1.6% | 0.36 | 2.14 | — |
| 2017 | 20 | ROK | Elizabethton Twins | 11 | 0 | 25 | 90 | 45 | 6 | 1 | 0% | 2.2 | 50.0% | 6.7% | 43.3% | 1.1% | 0.36 | 0.71 | — |
| 2018 | 21 | MIX | 2 levels | 37 | 1 | 76 | 300 | 107 | 35 | 2 | 3% | 2.1 | 26.8% | 13.7% | 13.1% | 0.7% | 2.25 | 2.96 | — |
| 2018 | 21 | MIX | 2 levels | 37 | 1 | 76 | 300 | 107 | 35 | 2 | 3% | 2.1 | 35.7% | 11.7% | 24.0% | 0.7% | 2.25 | 2.01 | — |
| 2019 | 22 | MIX | 2 levels | 23 | 0 | 38 | 166 | 55 | 24 | 3 | 0% | 1.6 | 26.6% | 15.9% | 10.7% | 2.4% | 4.54 | 4.17 | — |
| 2019 | 22 | MIX | 2 levels | 23 | 0 | 38 | 166 | 55 | 24 | 3 | 0% | 1.6 | 33.1% | 14.5% | 18.7% | 1.8% | 4.54 | 3.13 | — |
| 2021 | 24 | MIX | 3 levels | 40 | 0 | 75 | 299 | 119 | 37 | 6 | 0% | 1.9 | 35.0% | 12.3% | 22.7% | 2.2% | 2.99 | 2.89 | +1.7 |
| 2021 | 24 | MIX | 3 levels | 40 | 0 | 75 | 299 | 119 | 37 | 6 | 0% | 1.9 | 39.8% | 12.4% | 27.4% | 2.0% | 2.99 | 2.45 | +2.1 |
| 2022 | 25 | MIX | 2 levels | 51 | 0 | 65 | 276 | 97 | 32 | 2 | 0% | 1.3 | 33.3% | 11.8% | 21.4% | 1.0% | 3.62 | 2.36 | +1.7 |
| 2022 | 25 | MIX | 2 levels | 51 | 0 | 65 | 276 | 97 | 32 | 2 | 0% | 1.3 | 35.1% | 11.6% | 23.6% | 0.7% | 3.62 | 1.99 | +2.0 |
| 2023 | 26 | MIX | 2 levels | 49 | 0 | 51 | 223 | 56 | 35 | 3 | 0% | 1.0 | 26.1% | 14.1% | 12.0% | 1.6% | 4.62 | 3.57 | +0.6 |
| 2023 | 26 | MIX | 2 levels | 49 | 0 | 51 | 223 | 56 | 35 | 3 | 0% | 1.0 | 25.1% | 15.7% | 9.4% | 1.3% | 4.62 | 3.73 | +0.5 |
| 2025 | 28 | MIX | 4 levels | 28 | 5 | 39 | 173 | 62 | 13 | 2 | 18% | 1.4 | 29.8% | 4.4% | 25.4% | 1.9% | 4.12 | 2.20 | +1.1 |
| 2025 | 28 | MIX | 4 levels | 28 | 5 | 39 | 173 | 62 | 13 | 2 | 18% | 1.4 | 35.8% | 7.5% | 28.3% | 1.2% | 4.12 | 1.60 | +1.4 |
| ▸ 2026 Season | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2026 | 29 | MLB | Boston Red Sox | 27 | 3 | 41 | 163 | 50 | 17 | 5 | 11% | 1.5 | 30.1% | 11.1% | 19.0% | 3.3% | 2.61 | 3.76 | +0.4 |
| ROS | 29 | MLB | BOS | 24 | 0 | 25 | 105 | 32 | 9 | 3 | 0% | 1.0 | 30.4% | 8.8% | 21.6% | 2.8% | 3.29 | 3.20 | +0.4 |
| ROS | 29 | MLB | BOS | 24 | 0 | 25 | 106 | 32 | 9 | 3 | 0% | 1.0 | 30.4% | 8.8% | 21.6% | 2.8% | 3.30 | 3.21 | +0.4 |
| 2026 TOT | 29 | MLB | BOS | — | — | 66 | 268 | 82 | 26 | 8 | — | — | 30.6% | 9.8% | 20.8% | 3.0% | 2.87 | 3.55 | +0.9 |
| 2026 FULL | 29 | MLB | BOS | — | — | 63 | 267 | 82 | 26 | 8 | — | — | 30.7% | 9.8% | 20.9% | 3.0% | 3.01 | 3.39 | +0.9 |
| ▸ 2027+ Projections WITH CONTEXT · MLB TIME ONLY ⓘ | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 30 | MLB | BOS | 57 | 0 | 60 | 251 | 75 | 23 | 8 | 0% | 1.0 | 29.8% | 9.0% | 20.8% | 3.0% | 3.72 | 3.77 | +0.5 |
| 2028 | 31 | MLB | BOS | 53 | 0 | 56 | 234 | 68 | 22 | 8 | 0% | 1.0 | 29.0% | 9.4% | 19.7% | 3.3% | 3.89 | 4.00 | +0.4 |
| 2029 | 32 | MLB | BOS | 49 | 0 | 51 | 217 | 61 | 21 | 8 | 0% | 1.0 | 28.2% | 9.8% | 18.4% | 3.5% | 4.11 | 4.26 | +0.2 |
| 2027 | 30 | MLB | BOS | 54 | 0 | 57 | 241 | 72 | 22 | 7 | 0% | 1.1 | 29.8% | 9.0% | 20.8% | 3.0% | 3.73 | 3.78 | +0.5 |
| 2028 | 31 | MLB | BOS | 50 | 0 | 53 | 224 | 65 | 21 | 7 | 0% | 1.1 | 29.0% | 9.4% | 19.7% | 3.3% | 3.90 | 4.01 | +0.3 |
| 2029 | 32 | MLB | BOS | 47 | 0 | 49 | 207 | 58 | 20 | 7 | 0% | 1.0 | 28.2% | 9.8% | 18.4% | 3.5% | 4.12 | 4.27 | +0.2 |
| ▸ Career (MLB actual + context projections) | |||||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | 280 | 3 | 316 | 1331 | 389 | 143 | 33 | 1% | 1.1 | 29.2% | 10.7% | 18.5% | 2.5% | 3.83 | 3.34 | +7.6 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 177 | 2 | 200 | 842 | 246 | 90 | 21 | 1% | 1.1 | 29.2% | 10.7% | 18.5% | 2.5% | 3.83 | 3.34 | +4.8 | ||
| Career | — | 272 | 15 | 429 | 1774 | 522 | 213 | 29 | 6% | 1.6 | 29.4% | 12.0% | 17.4% | 1.6% | 3.25 | 3.03 | +11.9 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 127 | 7 | 200 | 826 | 243 | 99 | 14 | 6% | 1.6 | 29.4% | 12.0% | 17.4% | 1.6% | 3.25 | 3.03 | +5.5 | ||
Career Path Comps
What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection
| Profile at Match Age | Next 3 Yrs | Career | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Comp | Age | Role | FIP | K% | BB% | HR/BF | BABIP | FIP | K% | K-BB% | IP | ΔFIP | Low FIP | IP | Match |
| Jovani Morán (OGILVIE) | — | — | 3.34 | 30.7% | 7.7% | 2.7% | — | 4.00 | 29.0% | 19.7% | 166 | +0.66 | — | — | — |
| Zac Rosscup L 2026 · 2.67 FIP | 29 | SU | 2.67 | 29.5% | 7.8% | 1.9% | .275 | 4.48 | 26.4% | 5.9% | 35 | +1.81 | 2.51 | 160 | 80 |
| Brooks Raley L 2029 · 3.14 FIP | 32 | SU | 3.14 | 32.1% | 7.1% | 3.4% | .208 | 2.79 | 28.4% | 20.4% | 157 | -0.35 | 1.74 | 238 | 75 |
| Marc Rzepczynski L 2026 · 2.83 FIP | 29 | SU | 2.83 | 25.9% | 6.3% | 2.0% | .356 | 3.76 | 19.4% | 7.9% | 101 | +0.93 | 2.79 | 181 | 73 |
| Adam Liberatore L 2026 · 2.44 FIP | 29 | SU | 2.44 | 26.7% | 7.4% | 1.2% | .281 | 4.29 | 18.6% | 9.5% | 30 | +1.85 | 2.44 | 124 | 72 |
| Rex Brothers L 2026 · 3.10 FIP | 29 | SU | 3.10 | 31.4% | 8.6% | 2.9% | .333 | 4.31 | 29.0% | 8.9% | 86 | +1.21 | 3.10 | 205 | 72 |
| Boone Logan L 2027 · 2.85 FIP | 30 | SU | 2.85 | 26.2% | 9.5% | 1.4% | .352 | 3.01 | 29.7% | 20.6% | 78 | +0.16 | 2.44 | 113 | 72 |
| Tony Sipp L 2029 · 2.70 FIP | 32 | SU | 2.70 | 28.7% | 6.5% | 2.2% | .267 | 4.25 | 23.8% | 15.0% | 120 | +1.55 | 2.18 | 195 | 72 |
| Mike Dunn L 2027 · 3.76 FIP | 30 | SU | 3.76 | 27.7% | 11.9% | 2.7% | .294 | 4.09 | 22.5% | 10.9% | 110 | +0.33 | 3.72 | 181 | 71 |
| Andrew Chafin L 2026 · 2.96 FIP | 29 | SU | 2.96 | 30.2% | 8.0% | 2.5% | .346 | 2.89 | 25.7% | 18.4% | 126 | -0.07 | 2.42 | 531 | 70 |
| Antonio Bastardo L 2026 · 3.04 FIP | 29 | SU | 3.04 | 26.8% | 10.0% | 1.7% | .238 | 5.18 | 22.6% | 11.3% | 88 | +2.14 | 3.04 | 145 | 70 |
| Luis Avilán L 2026 · 2.69 FIP | 29 | SU | 2.69 | 25.9% | 7.6% | 1.5% | .320 | 4.52 | 21.3% | 11.4% | 32 | +1.83 | 2.68 | 256 | 70 |
| Kyle Regnault L 2026 · 3.81 FIP | 29 | SU | 3.81 | 27.6% | 9.7% | 3.3% | .367 | — | — | — | — | — | 2.83 | 204 | 70 |
| Jerry Blevins L 2029 · 2.73 FIP | 32 | SU | 2.73 | 29.2% | 6.7% | 2.3% | .291 | 3.67 | 26.9% | 16.5% | 124 | +0.94 | 2.72 | 166 | 69 |
| Sammy Solís L 2026 · 4.39 FIP | 29 | SU | 4.39 | 24.9% | 9.6% | 4.0% | .330 | 4.16 | 26.2% | 17.3% | 23 | -0.23 | 2.51 | 190 | 69 |
| Zach Phillips L 2026 · 3.06 FIP | 29 | SU | 3.06 | 27.4% | 11.9% | 1.4% | .370 | 3.20 | 19.2% | 10.6% | 86 | +0.14 | 2.29 | 202 | 66 |
| Jake Diekman L 2026 · 3.25 FIP | 29 | SU | 3.25 | 26.7% | 11.3% | 1.8% | .241 | 3.03 | 28.6% | 15.8% | 115 | -0.22 | 2.33 | 455 | 66 |
| Darien Núñez L 2025 · 2.63 FIP | 28 | SU | 2.63 | 35.0% | 10.4% | 2.1% | .268 | 6.44 | 17.9% | -8.0% | 14 | +3.81 | 2.50 | 122 | 66 |
| Danny Coulombe L 2026 · 4.49 FIP | 29 | SU | 4.49 | 31.8% | 10.6% | 5.0% | .366 | 3.07 | 24.3% | 17.8% | 67 | -1.42 | 2.46 | 483 | 66 |
| Adam Morgan L 2026 · 3.78 FIP | 29 | SU | 3.78 | 24.2% | 7.5% | 3.2% | .205 | 4.21 | 27.1% | 18.4% | 55 | +0.43 | 3.49 | 522 | 64 |
| Ryan O'Rourke L 2025 · 3.06 FIP | 28 | SU | 3.06 | 23.4% | 6.7% | 2.0% | .284 | 4.13 | 22.1% | 7.8% | 56 | +1.07 | 3.06 | 145 | 64 |
Career Comps
Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 327 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).
| Player | Yrs | IP/yr | K% | BB% | HR/9 | ERA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION | 4 | 57 | 29.5% | 8.9% | 1.20 | 3.77 |
| Colin Poche ('24) | 4 | 52 | 27.0% | 9.2% | 1.34 | 3.63 |
| Cody Allen ('19) | 5 | 59 | 31.3% | 10.2% | 1.19 | 3.51 |
| Diego Castillo ('22) | 5 | 52 | 28.1% | 8.9% | 1.07 | 3.12 |
| Joe Jiménez ('24) | 7 | 53 | 29.8% | 8.6% | 1.11 | 4.06 |
| Keone Kela ('19) | 5 | 43 | 30.1% | 9.4% | 0.92 | 3.23 |
| Brad Peacock ('19) | 4 | 80 | 28.7% | 9.2% | 1.18 | 3.48 |