Jovani Morán

P Boston Red Sox

Age 30 LHP 6'1" / 167 lbs MLB peak 0.3 · 2027

Overview

MLBRP40-MAN

Year	Age	Lvl / Team	G	GS	IP	ERA	FIP	K%	BB%	WAR	MLE rates
2023	26	MIX2 levels	49	0	51	4.62	3.73	25.1%	15.7%	0.5	K 26.1% · BB 14.1% · FIP 3.58
2025	28	MIX4 levels	28	5	39	4.12	1.60	35.8%	7.5%	1.4	K 29.2% · BB 3.8% · FIP 2.16
2026	29	MIX2 levels	52	3	69	3.01	3.92	27.3%	11.0%	0.5	K 26.8% · BB 11.4% · FIP 4.14
2027PROJ	30	MLBBOS	59	0	62	3.87	4.12	28.6%	10.7%	0.3
2028PROJ95% MLB	31	MLBBOS	46	0	48	4.16	4.35	27.9%	11.0%	0.1
2029PROJ95% MLB	32	MLBBOS	35	0	37	4.42	4.60	27.1%	11.4%	-0.0

Last 3 seasons WAR 2.4 · Next 3 projected WAR 0.4Projected rows: MLB playing time only, park and league context applied.

Contract

No contract data on file.

Skills · percentileStatcast 2026

xwOBA vs80

K%75

FB Velo26

Form4.15 ERA (proj 3.87) · K 23.5% (proj 28.6%) · BB 14.3% (proj 10.7%) ▼▼ last 90d · 22 IP through Oct 27

CompsYuki Matsui (age 28) · Kyle Regnault (age 29) · Brian Moran (age 30)

2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONrates below = full-season projection

showingPROJ

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 8694vR 102

ERA3.87

FIP4.12

K%28.6%

BB%10.7%

K-BB%18.0%

Proj IP62

Value2027 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 62 IP

Grades · Statcast · Contract

Scouting Grades

STUF7070

CTRL3030

CMD5555

K†6565

Statcast Percentiles

FB Velo

p2692.8

Whiff%

p9032.1%

p7526.8%

xwOBA vs

p800.283

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to the standard WAR scale.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2027 so far)
2015	18	ROK MLE	GCL Twins	6	6	20	84	17	9	0	100%	3.3	13.8%	13.4%	0.4%	0.0%	4.12	3.63	—
2015	18	ROK RAW	GCL Twins	6	6	20	84	17	9	0	100%	3.3	20.2%	10.7%	9.5%	0.0%	4.12	2.74	—
2017	20	ROK MLE	Elizabethton Twins	11	0	25	90	45	6	1	0%	2.2	34.0%	8.3%	25.7%	1.6%	0.36	2.14	—
2017	20	ROK RAW	Elizabethton Twins	11	0	25	90	45	6	1	0%	2.2	50.0%	6.7%	43.3%	1.1%	0.36	0.71	—
2018	21	MIX MLE	2 levels	37	1	76	300	107	35	2	3%	2.1	26.8%	13.7%	13.1%	0.8%	2.25	2.99	—
2018	21	MIX RAW	2 levels	37	1	76	300	107	35	2	3%	2.1	35.7%	11.7%	24.0%	0.7%	2.25	2.01	—
2019	22	MIX MLE	2 levels	23	0	38	166	55	24	3	0%	1.6	26.6%	15.9%	10.7%	2.4%	4.54	4.17	—
2019	22	MIX RAW	2 levels	23	0	38	166	55	24	3	0%	1.6	33.1%	14.5%	18.7%	1.8%	4.54	3.13	—
2021	24	MIX MLE	3 levels	40	0	75	299	119	37	6	0%	1.9	35.0%	12.3%	22.7%	2.4%	2.99	3.01	+1.4
2021	24	MIX RAW	3 levels	40	0	75	299	119	37	6	0%	1.9	39.8%	12.4%	27.4%	2.0%	2.99	2.45	+1.9
2022	25	MIX MLE	2 levels	51	0	65	276	97	32	2	0%	1.3	33.3%	11.8%	21.4%	0.9%	3.62	2.29	+1.8
2022	25	MIX RAW	2 levels	51	0	65	276	97	32	2	0%	1.3	35.1%	11.6%	23.6%	0.7%	3.62	1.99	+2.0
2023	26	MIX MLE	2 levels	49	0	51	223	56	35	3	0%	1.0	26.1%	14.1%	12.0%	1.6%	4.62	3.58	+0.6
2023	26	MIX RAW	2 levels	49	0	51	223	56	35	3	0%	1.0	25.1%	15.7%	9.4%	1.3%	4.62	3.73	+0.5
2025	28	MIX MLE	4 levels	28	5	39	173	62	13	2	18%	1.4	29.2%	3.8%	25.3%	1.9%	4.12	2.16	+1.1
2025	28	MIX MLE	4 levels	28	5	39	173	62	13	2	18%	1.4	29.2%	3.8%	25.3%	1.9%	4.12	2.16	+1.1
2025	28	MIX RAW	4 levels	28	5	39	173	62	13	2	18%	1.4	35.8%	7.5%	28.3%	1.2%	4.12	1.60	+1.4
2026	29	MIX MLE	2 levels	52	3	69	282	77	31	9	6%	1.3	26.8%	11.4%	15.4%	3.4%	3.01	4.14	+0.3
2026	29	MIX MLE	2 levels	52	3	69	282	77	31	9	6%	1.3	26.8%	11.4%	15.4%	3.4%	3.01	4.14	+0.3
2026	29	MIX RAW	2 levels	52	3	69	282	77	31	9	6%	1.3	27.3%	11.0%	16.3%	3.2%	3.01	3.92	+0.5
▸ Career totals (raw MLB only — as recorded)
MLB Career	—			131	3	161	678	190	85	12	2%	1.2	28.0%	12.5%	15.5%	1.8%	3.81	3.29	+2.4
▸ 2027 season — projected remainder (no 2027 stats recorded)
2027	30	MLB	BOS	59	0	62	262	75	28	8	0%	1.1	28.6%	10.7%	18.0%	3.1%	3.87	4.12	+0.3
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2028	31	MLB MLE	BOS	48	0	50	213	59	23	7	0%	1.1	27.9%	11.0%	16.9%	3.3%	4.16	4.35	+0.1
2029	32	MLB MLE	BOS	38	0	39	166	45	19	6	0%	1.0	27.1%	11.4%	15.7%	3.6%	4.42	4.60	-0.0
2028	31	MLB CTX	BOS	46	0	48	203	57	22	7	0%	1.0	27.9%	11.0%	16.9%	3.3%	4.16	4.35	+0.1
2029	32	MLB CTX	BOS	35	0	37	156	42	18	6	0%	1.1	27.1%	11.4%	15.7%	3.6%	4.42	4.60	-0.0
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		212	3	246	1038	289	125	24	1%	1.2	27.9%	12.1%	15.8%	2.3%	3.97	3.57	+2.9
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		173	2	200	844	235	102	20	1%	1.2	27.9%	12.1%	15.8%	2.3%	3.97	3.57	+2.3
Career	—	MLE		297	15	457	1893	548	226	34	5%	1.5	28.9%	11.9%	17.0%	1.8%	3.27	3.15	+2.5
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		130	7	200	829	240	99	15	5%	1.5	28.9%	11.9%	17.0%	1.8%	3.27	3.15	+2.0

How the minor-league lines were translated

One row per minor-league stint. Open a row to see each step: the raw rate, the park adjustment, the league/level factor, the age adjustment (hitters) and the resulting MLE rate. Factors are the same ones listed on the MLE Factors page.

2025 AAAWorcester Red Sox · 28 IPFIP 1.70 → 2.16 (+0.46)K% 33.9% → 29.2%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	33.90%	—	×0.860	29.15%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	4.24%	—	×0.900	3.81%
HR / BF /BF	1.69%	÷0.984	×1.100	1.89%

Factors used: pitcher AAA level factors (Triple-A 2023+ robo-zone set: walks improve on promotion) — K ×0.86, BB ×0.90, HR ×1.10. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 97).

Result: FIP 1.70 → 2.16, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2025 A+Greenville Drive · 5 IPFIP 0.71 → 1.89 (+1.18)K% 47.8% → 36.8%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	47.83%	—	×0.770	36.83%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	13.04%	—	×1.150	15.00%
HR / BF /BF	0.00%	÷1.117	×1.250	0.00%

Factors used: pitcher A+ level factors — K ×0.77, BB ×1.15, HR ×1.25. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 123).

Result: FIP 0.71 → 1.89, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2023 AAASt. Paul Saints · 8 IPFIP 4.29 → 4.24 (−0.05)K% 20.5% → 17.6%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	20.51%	—	×0.860	17.64%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	23.08%	—	×0.900	20.77%
HR / BF /BF	0.00%	÷1.009	×1.100	0.00%

Result: FIP 4.29 → 4.24, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2022 AAASt. Paul Saints · 24 IPFIP 2.42 → 3.13 (+0.71)K% 38.4% → 33.8%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	38.39%	—	×0.880	33.79%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	12.50%	—	×1.050	13.12%
HR / BF /BF	1.79%	÷0.881	×1.100	2.23%

Factors used: pitcher AAA level factors — K ×0.88, BB ×1.05, HR ×1.10. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 76).

Result: FIP 2.42 → 3.13, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2021 AAWichita Wind Surge · 38 IPFIP 1.67 → 2.64 (+0.97)K% 46.0% → 37.3%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	46.04%	—	×0.810	37.29%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	10.07%	—	×1.100	11.08%
HR / BF /BF	2.16%	÷1.104	×1.200	2.35%

Factors used: pitcher AA level factors — K ×0.81, BB ×1.10, HR ×1.20. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 121).

Result: FIP 1.67 → 2.64, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2021 AAASt. Paul Saints · 30 IPFIP 3.00 → 3.43 (+0.43)K% 36.9% → 32.5%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	36.89%	—	×0.880	32.46%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	13.11%	—	×1.050	13.77%
HR / BF /BF	2.46%	÷1.121	×1.100	2.41%

Result: FIP 3.00 → 3.43, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2019 AAPensacola Blue Wahoos · 34 IPFIP 3.24 → 4.17 (+0.93)K% 32.9% → 26.6%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	32.89%	—	×0.810	26.64%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	14.47%	—	×1.100	15.92%
HR / BF /BF	1.97%	÷1.000	×1.200	2.37%

Result: FIP 3.24 → 4.17, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2018 ACedar Rapids Kernels · 44 IPFIP 2.00 → 3.26 (+1.25)K% 39.5% → 29.3%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	39.55%	—	×0.740	29.27%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	15.25%	—	×1.180	18.00%
HR / BF /BF	0.56%	÷1.163	×1.300	0.63%

Factors used: pitcher A level factors — K ×0.74, BB ×1.18, HR ×1.30. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 133).

Result: FIP 2.00 → 3.26, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Jovani Morán (OGILVIE)	—	—	4.12	28.6%	10.7%	3.1%	—	4.46	27.5%	16.3%	90	+0.34	—	—	—
Yuki Matsui L 2024 · 3.63 FIP	28	SU	3.63	26.8%	8.9%	3.0%	.242	4.25	23.9%	12.6%	140	+0.62	3.63	203	81
Kyle Regnault L 2018 · 3.82 FIP	29	SU	3.82	27.6%	9.7%	3.3%	.367	—	—	—	—	—	2.88	204	75
Brian Moran L 2019 · 3.40 FIP	30	SU	3.40	26.9%	10.0%	2.4%	.269	2.99	25.5%	18.5%	99	-0.41	1.80	421	75
Raul Valdes L 2010 · 4.02 FIP	32	SU	4.02	21.4%	9.9%	2.7%	.301	3.14	27.4%	22.5%	78	-0.88	2.29	160	73
Clay Rapada L 2011 · 4.34 FIP	30	SU	4.34	26.1%	10.1%	3.9%	.268	3.00	24.5%	14.2%	38	-1.34	3.00	120	71
Mike Dunn L 2015 · 3.75 FIP	30	SU	3.75	27.7%	11.9%	2.7%	.294	4.21	22.5%	10.9%	110	+0.46	2.82	432	71
Brian Fuentes L 2006 · 3.47 FIP	30	SU	3.47	26.6%	8.0%	2.9%	.246	3.22	24.6%	15.8%	179	-0.25	2.08	602	70
Sammy Solís L 2019 · 4.05 FIP	30	SU	4.05	26.2%	8.9%	3.7%	.291	—	—	—	—	—	2.51	190	70
Cory Luebke L 2016 · 3.88 FIP	31	SU	3.88	26.4%	9.1%	3.4%	.354	—	—	—	—	—	2.80	216	70
Hideki Okajima L 2007 · 3.05 FIP	31	SU	3.05	23.2%	5.5%	2.2%	.234	3.87	20.2%	12.6%	169	+0.82	3.05	238	69
Matt Thornton L 2007 · 3.13 FIP	30	SU	3.13	22.1%	8.0%	1.6%	.324	2.19	30.7%	24.4%	200	-0.94	1.71	663	69
Steven Okert L 2021 · 3.20 FIP	30	SU	3.20	30.1%	7.9%	3.0%	.230	4.05	27.0%	17.3%	145	+0.85	2.49	605	68
Doug Creek L 2000 · 4.57 FIP	31	SU	4.57	27.5%	13.6%	3.8%	.267	4.75	21.9%	7.8%	132	+0.18	4.48	277	68
James Pazos L 2021 · 4.41 FIP	30	SU	4.41	26.0%	12.0%	3.6%	.350	—	—	—	—	—	2.55	261	68
Ryan Buchter L 2017 · 4.45 FIP	30	SU	4.45	24.3%	9.3%	4.0%	.202	4.19	25.3%	15.6%	85	-0.26	2.37	296	67
Nick Hagadone L 2015 · 3.65 FIP	29	SU	3.65	22.6%	8.9%	2.4%	.329	3.74	22.6%	13.3%	33	+0.09	2.97	141	67
Jason Christiansen L 2000 · 3.08 FIP	30	SU	3.08	25.2%	10.5%	1.4%	.288	4.28	20.1%	10.6%	62	+1.20	2.22	429	67
Andrew Barbosa L 2017 · 4.67 FIP	29	SU	4.67	20.2%	9.6%	3.8%	.301	—	—	—	—	—	2.70	175	67
Randy Flores L 2005 · 3.54 FIP	30	SU	3.54	24.7%	7.5%	2.9%	.283	3.53	18.0%	9.4%	122	-0.01	2.51	250	67
Sam Freeman L 2017 · 3.03 FIP	30	SU	3.03	23.2%	9.8%	1.2%	.269	4.56	21.5%	9.0%	109	+1.53	3.02	369	67

Career Comps

Completed MLB careers (no pro action in 2+ yrs) whose totals — actual + projected — most resemble this player's. Pool: 1,234 reliever careers (754 from 1990-2025 + 480 historical, 1901-2023), also matched on career-to-date at the same age. * Historical (Lahman) careers: rates era-adjusted to 2001-24 league levels; WAR is an OGILVIE proxy.

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	1.6	52	28.0%	12.0%	0.98	3.95
Antonio Bastardo ('17)	2.0	56	28.0%	11.4%	1.01	4.01
Michael Wuertz ('11)	2.1	52	25.3%	11.3%	0.96	3.71
Rex Brothers ('21)	1.6	54	27.6%	13.5%	0.98	4.08
Rod Scurry ('80-'88, 5 WAR*)	2.3	58	29.6%*	13.6%*	0.91*	3.67*
Alberto Reyes ('95-'08, 5 WAR*)	2.1	54	27.1%*	10.2%*	1.18*	3.66*
Tim Stoddard ('75-'89, 4 WAR*)	3.6	66	26.2%*	11.2%*	1.14*	4.24*