Sean Hjelle — OGILVIE

Sean Hjelle P Sacramento River Cats

+0.5 WAR

Age 29 RHP 6'11" / 247 lbs AAA Svc 4.0 · Ctrl thru 2027 peak 0.5 · 2026

ERA4.40

FIP3.94

xFIP5.01

SIERA5.22

K%20.9%

BB%6.7%

K-BB%14.1%

IP47

trajectory · 10 yrs

0.5peak

2026

K†5050

FB Velo

p3793.6

Whiff%

p3723.4%

p1015.1%

xwOBA vs

p150.353

SI (50%)

FB (50%)

CT-1.6 (15%)

SL-2.9 (35%)

Career (MLE) + Projections

Park-neutral MLB-equivalent. MiLB translated via MLE factors. FIP-based WAR vs replacement FIP=5.3 (SP) / 4.95 (RP, <80 IP). FIP+ = runs above league-avg FIP · REP = replacement-level bonus.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	K%	BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
2019	22	AA	Richmond Flying Squirrels	28	28	144	616	139	36	6	17.3%	6.7%	1.2%	3.32	3.16	+3.5
2021	24	AAA	Sacramento River Cats	24	24	119	522	104	47	14	16.6%	9.6%	3.3%	4.31	4.72	+0.8
2022	25	MLB	San Francisco Giants	30	22	122	558	108	46	14	17.6%	8.6%	2.7%	5.09	4.19	+1.5
2023	26	MLB	San Francisco Giants	37	19	122	559	101	51	17	16.6%	9.5%	3.1%	6.12	4.62	+0.9
2024	27	MLB	San Francisco Giants	63	0	86	359	82	13	10	22.3%	3.6%	3.3%	3.87	3.49	+1.6
2025	28	MLB	San Francisco Giants	50	1	83	358	81	23	4	20.3%	6.6%	1.2%	3.92	2.89	+2.1
▸ 2026 Season
2026	29	MLB	SF	47	—	47	200	42	14	5	20.9%	6.8%	2.5%	4.39	3.96	+0.5
▸ 2027+ Projections — Marcel base + age-bracket aging
2027	30	MLB	SF	46	—	46	194	40	13	5	20.4%	6.9%	2.6%	4.19	4.06	+0.5
2028	31	MLB	SF	44	—	44	187	37	13	5	19.8%	7.0%	2.7%	4.17	4.16	+0.4
2029	32	MLB	SF	43	—	43	180	34	13	5	19.2%	7.1%	2.8%	4.23	4.28	+0.3
2030	33	MLB	SF	41	—	41	172	32	13	5	18.5%	7.3%	2.8%	4.33	4.40	+0.3
2031	34	MLB	SF	39	—	39	163	29	12	5	17.8%	7.5%	2.9%	4.46	4.54	+0.2
2032	35	MLB	SF	36	—	36	154	26	12	5	17.1%	7.7%	3.1%	4.60	4.69	+0.1
2033	36	MLB	SF	34	—	34	144	23	12	5	16.3%	8.0%	3.2%	4.75	4.86	+0.0
▸ Career (all levels · actual + projected)
Career	—			232	94	675	2972	537	229	74	18.1%	7.7%	2.5%	4.46	3.91	+10.7
/ 200 IP	—			69	28	200	880	159	68	22	18.1%	7.7%	2.5%	4.46	3.91	+3.2

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Sean Hjelle (OGILVIE)	—	—	3.96	20.9%	6.8%	2.5%	—	4.16	19.8%	12.8%	133	+0.20	—	—	—
Cory Gearrin R 2026 · 3.52 FIP	29	SU	3.52	22.1%	7.5%	2.4%	.283	3.61	22.2%	13.6%	174	+0.09	3.17	272	80
Anthony Swarzak R 2026 · 2.83 FIP	29	SU	2.83	21.3%	4.9%	1.7%	.386	3.47	26.1%	19.8%	181	+0.64	2.35	260	76
Mark Serrano R 2027 · 3.10 FIP	30	SU	3.10	17.7%	6.5%	1.2%	.290	4.39	21.1%	14.0%	88	+1.29	3.10	120	75
Brandon Morrow R 2028 · 3.51 FIP	31	SU	3.51	18.3%	5.6%	2.3%	.280	3.50	21.2%	14.8%	153	-0.01	2.67	186	75
Diego Moreno R 2026 · 3.75 FIP	29	SU	3.75	21.0%	8.2%	2.5%	.347	3.12	17.8%	11.9%	54	-0.63	2.31	187	74
Stephen Fife R 2026 · 3.10 FIP	29	SU	3.10	18.8%	8.1%	1.0%	.329	3.65	14.1%	8.3%	152	+0.55	3.10	179	74
Daniel Hudson R 2026 · 3.30 FIP	29	SW	3.30	21.6%	7.1%	2.1%	.319	3.76	23.5%	13.9%	181	+0.46	1.69	468	74
Matt Albers R 2029 · 3.13 FIP	32	SU	3.13	18.8%	4.7%	1.9%	.252	4.47	20.4%	13.3%	147	+1.34	3.13	244	74
Gerardo Sanchez R 2025 · 3.47 FIP	28	SU	3.47	21.6%	8.4%	2.1%	.355	3.57	20.5%	15.1%	56	+0.10	2.59	137	74
Tommy Hunter R 2026 · 3.54 FIP	29	SW	3.54	18.9%	4.8%	2.6%	.295	3.15	21.2%	15.9%	172	-0.39	2.73	316	74
Josh Lindblom R 2027 · 3.83 FIP	30	SU	3.83	18.7%	5.5%	2.9%	.333	3.54	27.2%	18.8%	45	-0.29	3.54	348	74
Craig Stammen R 2029 · 4.03 FIP	32	SU	4.03	17.0%	3.7%	3.5%	.333	3.35	23.9%	18.6%	241	-0.68	1.83	407	73
Tyler Sturdevant R 2026 · 4.33 FIP	29	SU	4.33	21.3%	8.5%	3.6%	.241	3.99	18.5%	11.9%	118	-0.34	3.47	149	73
David Hernandez R 2027 · 4.62 FIP	30	SU	4.62	22.9%	7.6%	4.5%	.287	3.18	24.9%	18.4%	192	-1.44	2.56	268	72
Marc Magliaro R 2025 · 4.01 FIP	28	SU	4.01	19.6%	7.3%	3.0%	.307	—	—	—	—	—	4.00	125	72
Hunter Strickland R 2026 · 4.23 FIP	29	SU	4.23	18.4%	9.5%	2.7%	.271	4.41	22.0%	13.3%	83	+0.18	2.30	511	72
Jhan Mariñez R 2026 · 4.10 FIP	29	SU	4.10	21.2%	7.9%	3.2%	.331	—	—	—	—	—	3.18	253	72
Drew Storen R 2026 · 3.81 FIP	29	SW	3.81	19.5%	7.3%	2.6%	.289	4.32	19.4%	8.4%	10	+0.51	2.26	172	71
Chris Martin R 2026 · 3.18 FIP	29	SU	3.18	18.1%	7.0%	1.3%	.319	2.97	20.9%	19.2%	42	-0.21	1.72	402	71
Adrian Garza R 2026 · 4.44 FIP	29	SU	4.44	16.0%	7.0%	3.3%	.351	5.10	9.7%	4.1%	113	+0.66	3.95	229	71

Contract

ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status Arb-2

MLB Debut 2022

Service 4.000 yrs.days

Team Control Through 2027

First FA Year 2028

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2026	Arb-2	$2M	+0.5	$2M	+$0.0M (cut)
2027	Arb-3	$4M	+0.5	$2M	+$0.0M (cut)
Totals		$4M		$4M	+$0.0M