Kris Bubic

P Los Angeles Dodgers

Age 29 LHP 6'3" / 220 lbs MLB Svc 5.0 · Ctrl thru 2027 peak 1.3 · 2027

Overview

MLBSP40-MANArb-3FA 2028

Year	Age	Lvl / Team	G	GS	IP	ERA	FIP	K%	BB%	WAR	MLE rates
2024	26	MIX4 levels	41	10	66	3.14	2.12	29.8%	5.5%	2.0	K 27.2% · BB 4.7% · FIP 2.13
2025	27	MLBKC	20	20	116	2.55	2.76	24.4%	8.0%	3.2
2026	28	MIX2 levels	23	12	65	3.88	3.21	24.4%	10.7%	1.3	K 24.8% · BB 11.5% · FIP 3.40
2027PROJ	29	MLBLAD	11	11	65	3.53	3.75	24.1%	9.3%	0.9
2028PROJ	30	MLBLAD	10	10	61	3.84	4.01	23.4%	9.6%	0.7
2029PROJ	31	MLBLAD	10	10	57	4.09	4.25	22.6%	10.0%	0.5

Last 3 seasons WAR 6.5 · Next 3 projected WAR 2.1Projected rows: MLB playing time only, park and league context applied.

ContractESTIMATED

Control thru2027Service5.785First FA2028

2027Arb-3$9M

Skills · percentileStatcast 2026

K%64

Whiff%54

xwOBA vs47

FB Velo14

CompsJohn Lamb (age 28) · John Bale (age 29) · Chris O'Grady (age 27)

2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONrates below = full-season projection

showingPROJ

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 8997vR 106

ERA3.53

FIP3.75

K%24.1%

BB%9.3%

K-BB%14.7%

Proj IP65

Value2027 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 65 IP

Grades · Statcast · Arsenal · Contract

Scouting Grades

OFP—50

STUF5050

CTRL5555

CMD5050

K†6060

Statcast Percentiles

FB Velo

p1491.9

Whiff%

p5425.9%

p6424.8%

xwOBA vs

p470.315

CH+5.2 (21%)

SI (13%)

SL (25%)

FB-1.2 (54%)

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status Arb-3

MLB Debut 2020

Service 5.785 yrs.days

Team Control Through 2027

First FA Year 2028

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2027	Arb-3	$9M	+0.9	$4M	+$0.0M (cut)
Totals		$0.0M		$4M	+$0.0M

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2027 so far)
2018	20	ROK MLE	Idaho Falls Chukars	10	10	38	172	53	19	2	100%	3.8	21.0%	13.8%	7.1%	1.6%	4.03	3.97	—
2018	20	ROK RAW	Idaho Falls Chukars	10	10	38	172	53	19	2	100%	3.8	30.8%	11.0%	19.8%	1.2%	4.03	2.49	—
2019	21	MIX MLE	2 levels	26	26	149	575	185	42	6	100%	5.7	24.4%	8.5%	15.9%	1.4%	2.23	2.86	—
2019	21	MIX RAW	2 levels	26	26	149	575	185	42	6	100%	5.7	32.2%	7.3%	24.9%	1.0%	2.23	1.99	—
2020	22	MLB MLE	Kansas City Royals	10	10	50	222	49	21	8	100%	5.0	22.1%	9.5%	12.6%	3.9%	4.32	4.57	+0.2
2020	22	MLB RAW	Kansas City Royals	10	10	50	222	49	21	8	100%	5.0	22.1%	9.5%	12.6%	3.6%	4.32	4.48	+0.2
2021	23	MLB MLE	Kansas City Royals	29	20	130	556	114	59	22	69%	4.5	20.5%	10.6%	9.9%	4.3%	4.43	5.06	-0.2
2021	23	MLB RAW	Kansas City Royals	29	20	130	556	114	59	22	69%	4.5	20.5%	10.6%	9.9%	4.0%	4.43	4.91	-0.0
2022	24	MIX MLE	2 levels	31	30	143	645	127	67	20	97%	4.6	19.4%	10.4%	9.0%	3.4%	5.68	4.63	+0.4
2022	24	MIX RAW	2 levels	31	30	143	645	127	67	20	97%	4.6	19.7%	10.4%	9.3%	3.1%	5.68	4.55	+0.6
2023	25	MLB MLE	Kansas City Royals	3	3	16	68	16	2	1	100%	5.3	23.5%	2.9%	20.6%	1.6%	3.94	2.36	+0.5
2023	25	MLB RAW	Kansas City Royals	3	3	16	68	16	2	1	100%	5.3	23.5%	2.9%	20.6%	1.5%	3.94	2.29	+0.5
2024	26	MIX MLE	4 levels	41	10	66	272	81	15	4	24%	1.6	27.2%	4.7%	22.5%	1.3%	3.14	2.13	+1.9
2024	26	MIX MLE	4 levels	41	10	66	272	81	15	4	24%	1.6	27.2%	4.7%	22.5%	1.3%	3.14	2.13	+1.9
2024	26	MIX RAW	4 levels	41	10	66	272	81	15	4	24%	1.6	29.8%	5.5%	24.3%	1.5%	3.14	2.12	+2.0
2025	27	MLB MLE	Kansas City Royals	20	20	116	476	116	38	6	100%	5.8	24.4%	8.0%	16.4%	1.4%	2.55	2.80	+3.1
2025	27	MLB MLE	Kansas City Royals	20	20	116	476	116	38	6	100%	5.8	24.4%	8.0%	16.4%	1.4%	2.55	2.80	+3.1
2025	27	MLB RAW	Kansas City Royals	20	20	116	476	116	38	6	100%	5.8	24.4%	8.0%	16.4%	1.3%	2.55	2.76	+3.2
2026	28	MIX MLE	2 levels	23	12	65	270	66	29	4	52%	2.8	24.8%	11.5%	13.3%	1.7%	3.88	3.40	+1.2
2026	28	MIX MLE	2 levels	23	12	65	270	66	29	4	52%	2.8	24.8%	11.5%	13.3%	1.7%	3.88	3.40	+1.2
2026	28	MIX RAW	2 levels	23	12	65	270	66	29	4	52%	2.8	24.4%	10.7%	13.7%	1.5%	3.88	3.21	+1.3
▸ Career totals (raw MLB only — as recorded)
MLB Career	—			131	89	527	2256	500	211	61	68%	4.0	22.2%	9.4%	12.8%	2.7%	4.10	3.91	+6.2
▸ 2027 season — projected remainder (no 2027 stats recorded)
2027	29	MLB	LAD	11	11	65	274	66	26	6	100%	5.9	24.1%	9.3%	14.7%	2.0%	3.53	3.75	+0.9
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2028	30	MLB MLE	LAD	10	10	61	256	60	25	6	100%	6.1	23.4%	9.6%	13.7%	2.2%	3.79	3.96	+0.7
2029	31	MLB MLE	LAD	9	9	57	239	54	24	6	100%	6.3	22.6%	10.0%	12.6%	2.5%	4.03	4.19	+0.5
2028	30	MLB CTX	LAD	10	10	61	258	60	25	6	100%	6.1	23.4%	9.6%	13.7%	2.3%	3.84	4.01	+0.7
2029	31	MLB CTX	LAD	10	10	57	241	54	24	6	100%	5.7	22.6%	10.0%	12.6%	2.6%	4.09	4.25	+0.5
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		151	109	644	2751	614	259	73	72%	4.3	22.3%	9.4%	12.9%	2.7%	4.08	3.87	+7.9
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		47	34	200	854	191	80	23	72%	4.3	22.3%	9.4%	12.9%	2.7%	4.08	3.87	+2.5
Career	—	MLE		193	141	773	3256	737	303	81	73%	4.0	22.6%	9.3%	13.3%	2.5%	3.76	3.73	+7.4
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		50	36	200	842	191	78	21	73%	4.0	22.6%	9.3%	13.3%	2.5%	3.76	3.73	+2.3

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Kris Bubic (OGILVIE)	—	—	3.75	24.1%	9.3%	2.0%	—	4.07	23.0%	13.2%	117	+0.32	—	—	—
John Lamb L 2018 · 4.64 FIP	28	SP	4.64	22.5%	7.2%	4.6%	.319	—	—	—	—	—	3.38	390	61
John Bale L 2003 · 4.12 FIP	29	SP	4.12	19.0%	5.1%	3.6%	.305	—	—	—	—	—	2.49	168	59
Chris O'Grady L 2017 · 4.33 FIP	27	SP-	4.33	21.4%	9.0%	3.5%	.280	—	—	—	—	—	3.50	232	59
Mike Montgomery L 2018 · 3.64 FIP	29	SP-	3.64	16.1%	6.6%	1.9%	.300	5.22	17.4%	8.6%	108	+1.58	3.43	764	59
Aríel Miranda L 2018 · 4.21 FIP	29	SP	4.21	17.9%	12.8%	1.8%	.315	—	—	—	—	—	3.46	431	58
Danny Wirchansky L 2024 · 4.47 FIP	27	SP-	4.47	16.2%	7.4%	3.3%	.246	5.88	13.0%	0.2%	68	+1.41	4.47	179	58
Kwang Hyun Kim L 2020 · 3.76 FIP	32	SP	3.76	15.6%	6.5%	2.1%	.214	4.21	17.7%	9.5%	107	+0.45	3.76	146	58
Joey Lucchesi L 2021 · 3.18 FIP	28	SP-	3.18	26.1%	7.0%	2.5%	.297	4.64	16.4%	6.5%	243	+1.46	3.12	817	57
Tom Gorzelanny L 2011 · 3.94 FIP	29	SP-	3.94	21.3%	6.3%	3.4%	.282	3.69	22.2%	13.4%	178	-0.25	2.67	899	56
Roy Merritt L 2016 · 3.93 FIP	30	SP-	3.93	13.3%	5.9%	2.2%	.293	3.95	16.2%	10.4%	116	+0.02	3.93	129	55
Scott Downs L 2005 · 4.22 FIP	29	SP-	4.22	18.4%	8.4%	2.9%	.283	3.29	20.5%	12.9%	206	-0.93	2.68	748	55
Andy Otero L 2021 · 3.89 FIP	29	SP-	3.89	24.7%	6.2%	3.8%	.298	4.36	14.5%	5.6%	68	+0.47	2.86	200	54
Yusei Kikuchi L 2020 · 3.23 FIP	29	SP	3.23	24.2%	10.3%	1.6%	.306	4.42	25.7%	16.5%	425	+1.19	3.23	1,056	54
Marlon Arias L 2015 · 4.32 FIP	30	SP	4.32	16.8%	12.2%	2.0%	.330	3.73	17.2%	9.5%	22	-0.59	3.73	154	54
Onelki Garcia L 2017 · 4.02 FIP	27	SP-	4.02	16.5%	9.3%	2.1%	.328	—	—	—	—	—	2.99	164	53
John Anderson L 2016 · 4.23 FIP	27	SP-	4.23	14.3%	8.7%	2.2%	.367	—	—	—	—	—	4.12	235	52
Brandon Mann L 2016 · 4.72 FIP	32	SP	4.72	19.4%	7.9%	4.1%	.320	3.97	19.0%	7.6%	128	-0.75	3.59	190	52
Nick Additon L 2017 · 3.13 FIP	29	SP	3.13	19.3%	9.1%	0.9%	.301	—	—	—	—	—	3.13	217	52
Matt Lujan L 2017 · 4.69 FIP	28	SP-	4.69	14.3%	6.4%	3.6%	.348	—	—	—	—	—	4.06	227	52
Brian Burres L 2010 · 4.58 FIP	29	SP-	4.58	12.4%	8.3%	2.7%	.281	6.49	16.7%	10.0%	14	+1.91	4.50	344	52

Career Comps

Completed MLB careers (no pro action in 2+ yrs) whose totals — actual + projected — most resemble this player's. Pool: 3,327 pitcher careers (1,251 from 1990-2025 + 2,076 historical, 1901-2023), also matched on career-to-date at the same age. * Historical (Lahman) careers: rates era-adjusted to 2001-24 league levels; WAR is an OGILVIE proxy.

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	3.5	79	22.5%	9.6%	1.00	4.02
Brandon Morrow ('18)	4.3	78	24.0%	10.1%	0.92	3.96
Jim Brosnan ('54-'63, 10 WAR*)	4.2	92	21.0%*	8.9%*	1.03*	3.81*
Wade Davis ('21)	5.0	83	22.1%	9.3%	0.95	3.94
Al Worthington ('53-'69, 13 WAR*)	6.2	104	22.0%*	9.9%*	0.93*	3.87*
John Henry Johnson ('78-'87, 6 WAR*)	3.0	75	24.6%*	9.6%*	1.15*	4.15*
David Phelps ('22)	3.4	76	22.9%	9.4%	0.94	3.80