Konnor Pilkington

P Rochester Red Wings

Age 29 LHP 6'3" / 240 lbs AAA

Overview

AAARP

Year	Age	Lvl / Team	G	GS	IP	ERA	FIP	K%	BB%	WAR	MLE rates
2024	26	AAAARI	33	21	78	5.91	4.13	22.0%	13.6%	—	K 18.9% · BB 12.3% · FIP 4.10
2025	27	MIX2 levels	68	3	70	3.34	4.26	27.9%	14.6%	0.2	K 25.6% · BB 13.7% · FIP 4.37
2026	28	AAAWSH	31	5	41	4.57	5.59	18.1%	18.7%	—	K 15.6% · BB 16.8% · FIP 5.47
2027PROJ	29	MLBWSH	14	0	15	5.12	5.51	21.4%	15.4%	-0.2
2028PROJ37% MLB	30	MLBWSH	37	0	39	5.35	5.59	20.8%	14.9%	-0.4
2029PROJ55% MLB	31	MLBWSH	45	0	47	5.53	5.72	20.1%	14.7%	-0.6

Last 3 seasons WAR 0.2 · Next 3 projected WAR -1.2Projected rows: MLB playing time only, park and league context applied.

Contract

No contract data on file.

Skills · percentileStatcast 2025

K%79

FB Velo50

xwOBA vs10

CompsKelvin Marte (age 29) · Kyle Hart (age 29) · Danny Wirchansky (age 27)

2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONrates below = full-season projection

showingPROJ

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 122130vR 138

ERA5.12

FIP5.51

K%21.4%

BB%15.4%

K-BB%6.0%

Proj IP149

Value2027 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 149 IP

Grades · Statcast · Contract

Scouting Grades

STUF5555

CTRL2525

CMD5050

K†5050

Statcast Percentiles

FB Velo

p5094.5

Whiff%

p7429.1%

p7927.6%

xwOBA vs

p100.382

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to the standard WAR scale.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2027 so far)
2018	20	ROK MLE	Great Falls Voyagers	8	7	14	68	11	5	1	88%	1.8	11.0%	9.2%	1.8%	2.1%	7.07	4.47	—
2018	20	ROK RAW	Great Falls Voyagers	8	7	14	68	11	5	1	88%	1.8	16.2%	7.4%	8.8%	1.5%	7.07	3.53	—
2019	21	MIX MLE	2 levels	25	25	129	543	138	50	9	100%	5.2	19.3%	10.7%	8.7%	2.0%	4.12	3.92	—
2019	21	MIX RAW	2 levels	25	25	129	543	138	50	9	100%	5.2	25.4%	9.2%	16.2%	1.7%	4.12	3.03	—
2021	23	AA MLE	Akron RubberDucks	22	21	101	389	120	39	11	95%	4.6	25.0%	11.0%	14.0%	3.8%	3.04	4.47	—
2021	23	AA RAW	Akron RubberDucks	22	21	101	389	120	39	11	95%	4.6	30.8%	10.0%	20.8%	2.8%	3.04	3.30	—
2022	24	MIX MLE	2 levels	28	23	115	510	108	58	14	82%	4.1	19.8%	11.6%	8.2%	2.9%	4.87	4.49	+1.2
2022	24	MIX RAW	2 levels	28	23	115	510	108	58	14	82%	4.1	21.2%	11.4%	9.8%	2.7%	4.87	4.32	+1.5
2023	25	MIX MLE	2 levels	27	18	77	381	79	64	17	67%	2.8	17.8%	15.2%	2.6%	5.0%	8.22	6.25	-0.7
2023	25	MIX RAW	2 levels	27	18	77	381	79	64	17	67%	2.8	20.7%	16.8%	3.9%	4.5%	8.22	6.43	-0.9
2024	26	AAA MLE	Reno Aces	33	21	78	359	79	49	7	64%	2.4	18.9%	12.3%	6.6%	1.9%	5.91	4.10	—
2024	26	AAA MLE	Reno Aces	33	21	78	359	79	49	7	64%	2.4	18.9%	12.3%	6.6%	1.9%	5.91	4.10	—
2024	26	AAA RAW	Reno Aces	33	21	78	359	79	49	7	64%	2.4	22.0%	13.6%	8.4%	1.9%	5.91	4.13	—
2025	27	MIX MLE	2 levels	68	3	70	301	84	44	9	4%	1.0	25.6%	13.7%	11.9%	3.1%	3.34	4.37	+0.1
2025	27	MIX MLE	2 levels	68	3	70	301	84	44	9	4%	1.0	25.6%	13.7%	11.9%	3.1%	3.34	4.37	+0.1
2025	27	MIX RAW	2 levels	68	3	70	301	84	44	9	4%	1.0	27.9%	14.6%	13.3%	3.0%	3.34	4.26	+0.2
2026	28	AAA MLE	Rochester Red Wings	31	5	41	193	35	36	5	16%	1.3	15.6%	16.8%	-1.2%	2.8%	4.57	5.47	—
2026	28	AAA MLE	Rochester Red Wings	31	5	41	193	35	36	5	16%	1.3	15.6%	16.8%	-1.2%	2.8%	4.57	5.47	—
2026	28	AAA RAW	Rochester Red Wings	31	5	41	193	35	36	5	16%	1.3	18.1%	18.7%	-0.5%	2.6%	4.57	5.59	—
▸ Career totals (raw MLB only — as recorded)
MLB Career	—			48	11	88	389	86	50	13	23%	1.8	22.1%	12.9%	9.3%	3.3%	3.97	4.76	-0.2
▸ 2027 season — projected remainder (no 2027 stats recorded)
2027	29	MLB	WSH	14	0	15	63	14	10	2	0%	1.1	21.4%	15.4%	6.0%	3.4%	5.12	5.51	-0.2
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2028	30	MLB MLE	WSH	101	0	106	448	93	67	16	0%	1.1	20.8%	14.9%	5.8%	3.6%	5.35	5.59	-1.2
2029	31	MLB MLE	WSH	82	0	86	361	73	53	14	0%	1.0	20.1%	14.7%	5.4%	3.8%	5.53	5.72	-1.1
2028	30	MLB CTX	WSH	37	0	39	165	34	25	6	0%	1.1	20.8%	14.9%	5.8%	3.6%	5.35	5.59	-0.4
2029	31	MLB CTX	WSH	45	0	47	198	40	29	7	0%	1.0	20.1%	14.7%	5.4%	3.8%	5.53	5.72	-0.6
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		130	11	175	753	160	104	26	8%	1.3	21.3%	13.8%	7.5%	3.5%	4.70	4.98	-0.9
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		149	13	200	863	183	119	30	8%	1.3	21.3%	13.8%	7.5%	3.5%	4.70	4.98	-1.0
Career	—	MLE		242	123	624	2744	553	342	82	51%	2.6	20.2%	12.5%	7.7%	3.0%	4.82	4.62	+0.1
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		78	39	200	879	177	110	26	51%	2.6	20.2%	12.5%	7.7%	3.0%	4.82	4.62	+0.1

How the minor-league lines were translated

One row per minor-league stint. Open a row to see each step: the raw rate, the park adjustment, the league/level factor, the age adjustment (hitters) and the resulting MLE rate. Factors are the same ones listed on the MLE Factors page.

2026 AAARochester Red Wings · 41 IPFIP 5.35 → 5.47 (+0.12)K% 18.1% → 15.6%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	18.13%	—	×0.860	15.60%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	18.65%	—	×0.900	16.79%
HR / BF /BF	2.59%	÷1.000	×1.100	2.85%

Factors used: pitcher AAA level factors (Triple-A 2023+ robo-zone set: walks improve on promotion) — K ×0.86, BB ×0.90, HR ×1.10. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 100).

Result: FIP 5.35 → 5.47, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2025 AAARochester Red Wings · 42 IPFIP 3.27 → 3.50 (+0.23)K% 28.1% → 24.2%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	28.09%	—	×0.860	24.16%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	15.17%	—	×0.900	13.65%
HR / BF /BF	1.12%	÷0.960	×1.100	1.29%

Result: FIP 3.27 → 3.50, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2024 AAAReno Aces · 78 IPFIP 4.04 → 4.10 (+0.06)K% 22.0% → 18.9%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	22.01%	—	×0.860	18.92%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	13.65%	—	×0.900	12.28%
HR / BF /BF	1.95%	÷1.124	×1.100	1.91%

Result: FIP 4.04 → 4.10, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2023 AAAReno Aces · 75 IPFIP 6.00 → 6.25 (+0.25)K% 20.6% → 17.8%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	20.64%	—	×0.860	17.75%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	16.89%	—	×0.900	15.20%
HR / BF /BF	4.56%	÷1.012	×1.100	4.96%

Result: FIP 6.00 → 6.25, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2022 AAAColumbus Clippers · 57 IPFIP 4.21 → 4.68 (+0.47)K% 23.0% → 20.3%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	23.02%	—	×0.880	20.25%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	10.32%	—	×1.050	10.83%
HR / BF /BF	3.17%	÷1.001	×1.100	3.49%

Factors used: pitcher AAA level factors — K ×0.88, BB ×1.05, HR ×1.10. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 100).

Result: FIP 4.21 → 4.68, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2021 AAAkron RubberDucks · 101 IPFIP 3.32 → 4.47 (+1.16)K% 30.8% → 25.0%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	30.85%	—	×0.810	24.99%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	10.03%	—	×1.100	11.03%
HR / BF /BF	2.83%	÷0.893	×1.200	3.80%

Factors used: pitcher AA level factors — K ×0.81, BB ×1.10, HR ×1.20. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 79).

Result: FIP 3.32 → 4.47, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2019 A+Winston-Salem Dash · 96 IPFIP 3.26 → 4.01 (+0.74)K% 23.2% → 17.9%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	23.19%	—	×0.770	17.86%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	9.42%	—	×1.150	10.83%
HR / BF /BF	1.69%	÷1.113	×1.250	1.90%

Factors used: pitcher A+ level factors — K ×0.77, BB ×1.15, HR ×1.25. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 123).

Result: FIP 3.26 → 4.01, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2019 AKannapolis Intimidators · 33 IPFIP 2.28 → 3.64 (+1.36)K% 32.6% → 24.1%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	32.56%	—	×0.740	24.09%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	8.53%	—	×1.180	10.06%
HR / BF /BF	1.55%	÷0.849	×1.300	2.38%

Factors used: pitcher A level factors — K ×0.74, BB ×1.18, HR ×1.30. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 70).

Result: FIP 2.28 → 3.64, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Konnor Pilkington (OGILVIE)	—	—	5.51	21.4%	15.4%	3.4%	—	5.65	20.5%	5.6%	192	+0.14	—	—	—
Kelvin Marte L 2017 · 4.74 FIP	29	SW	4.74	16.1%	11.4%	2.8%	.300	5.25	12.0%	1.2%	71	+0.51	3.44	360	63
Kyle Hart L 2022 · 5.24 FIP	29	SW	5.24	17.4%	9.9%	4.3%	.286	4.29	18.4%	9.5%	196	-0.95	3.60	886	56
Danny Wirchansky L 2024 · 4.47 FIP	27	SP-	4.47	16.2%	7.4%	3.3%	.246	5.88	13.0%	0.2%	68	+1.41	4.47	179	56
Chris Michalak L 2001 · 4.92 FIP	30	SP-	4.92	11.0%	8.2%	3.1%	.291	4.71	7.0%	-4.3%	14	-0.21	4.71	186	54
John Rheinecker L 2007 · 5.13 FIP	28	SW	5.13	16.7%	10.9%	3.8%	.317	—	—	—	—	—	4.14	121	54
Chris O'Grady L 2017 · 4.33 FIP	27	SP-	4.33	21.4%	9.0%	3.5%	.280	—	—	—	—	—	3.50	232	53
Andrew Barbosa L 2017 · 4.67 FIP	29	SU	4.67	20.2%	9.6%	3.8%	.301	—	—	—	—	—	2.70	175	52
Brian Flynn L 2019 · 4.49 FIP	29	SW	4.49	17.7%	10.1%	2.9%	.333	—	—	—	—	—	3.80	295	52
Jordan Carr L 2024 · 4.42 FIP	27	SW	4.42	13.1%	8.8%	2.4%	.295	6.61	11.8%	-1.7%	47	+2.19	3.49	269	52
Enrique Lechuga L 2015 · 4.70 FIP	29	SP-	4.70	10.0%	10.5%	2.0%	.354	3.78	10.5%	4.4%	59	-0.92	3.78	137	51
Randy Keisler L 2005 · 5.07 FIP	29	SW	5.07	16.4%	9.9%	3.8%	.295	5.51	6.5%	0.0%	17	+0.44	5.07	135	49
Everett Teaford L 2012 · 5.47 FIP	28	SW	5.47	13.3%	8.0%	4.5%	.291	4.42	13.9%	6.3%	103	-1.05	4.42	208	48
Tommy Shirley L 2016 · 4.93 FIP	27	SP-	4.93	13.0%	8.8%	3.3%	.366	—	—	—	—	—	3.35	147	47
Jimmy Reyes L 2017 · 4.92 FIP	28	SU	4.92	13.8%	8.0%	3.6%	.294	—	—	—	—	—	3.02	200	47
Miguel Pena L 2019 · 5.08 FIP	28	SW	5.08	16.0%	7.0%	4.4%	.369	—	—	—	—	—	2.98	282	47
Kyle Hunter L 2017 · 4.50 FIP	28	SU	4.50	14.0%	6.1%	3.3%	.335	—	—	—	—	—	4.32	188	46
Stephen Randolph L 2003 · 4.83 FIP	29	SU	4.83	18.5%	14.8%	2.6%	.247	5.69	15.8%	-3.0%	82	+0.86	4.83	155	46
Darrell May L 2002 · 5.40 FIP	30	SP-	5.40	16.4%	8.1%	4.8%	.284	5.02	13.5%	7.2%	462	-0.38	4.24	657	44
Phil Pfeifer L 2021 · 5.65 FIP	29	SW	5.65	19.5%	14.8%	4.2%	.394	—	—	—	—	—	3.61	307	44
Keith Hessler L 2018 · 4.96 FIP	29	SU	4.96	19.8%	13.3%	3.4%	.348	—	—	—	—	—	3.31	228	44

Career Comps

Completed MLB careers (no pro action in 2+ yrs) whose totals — actual + projected — most resemble this player's. Pool: 2,161 pitcher careers (1,251 from 1990-2025 + 910 historical, 1901-2023), also matched on career-to-date at the same age. * Historical (Lahman) careers: rates era-adjusted to 2001-24 league levels; WAR is an OGILVIE proxy.

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	2.1	86	21.1%	14.6%	1.36	5.02
Dan Warthen ('75-'78, 1 WAR*)	1.5	102	24.8%*	14.2%*	1.27*	4.86*
Vic Albury ('73-'76, 0 WAR*)	1.9	93	18.1%*	13.2%*	1.31*	4.60*
Bob Gibson ('83-'87, -0 WAR*)	1.3	67	20.4%*	14.0%*	1.14*	4.52*
Blake Stein ('02)	2.4	95	17.4%	13.2%	1.48	5.41
Touki Toussaint ('25)	1.4	40	23.1%	14.1%	1.24	5.42
Kazuhisa Ishii ('02-'05, 1 WAR*)	2.8	141	19.8%*	13.6%*	1.14*	4.72*