Grades · Statcast · Arsenal · Contract
Contract
No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.
Career Stats + Projections
Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed
Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | G | GS | IP | BF | K | BB | HR | GS% | IP/G | K% | BB% | K-BB% | HR% | ERA | FIP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2018 | 21 | ROK | Grand Junction Rockies | 9 | 9 | 31 | 108 | 39 | 4 | 1 | 100% | 3.4 | 24.6% | 4.6% | 19.9% | 1.3% | 0.88 | 2.32 | — |
| 2018 | 21 | ROK | Grand Junction Rockies | 9 | 9 | 31 | 108 | 39 | 4 | 1 | 100% | 3.4 | 36.1% | 3.7% | 32.4% | 0.9% | 0.88 | 1.37 | — |
| 2019 | 22 | A | Asheville Tourists | 25 | 25 | 119 | 532 | 116 | 46 | 12 | 100% | 4.8 | 16.1% | 10.2% | 5.9% | 2.0% | 5.07 | 4.10 | — |
| 2019 | 22 | A | Asheville Tourists | 25 | 25 | 119 | 532 | 116 | 46 | 12 | 100% | 4.8 | 21.8% | 8.6% | 13.2% | 2.3% | 5.07 | 3.62 | — |
| 2021 | 24 | MIX | 4 levels | 23 | 23 | 119 | 501 | 133 | 47 | 13 | 100% | 5.2 | 21.9% | 9.9% | 12.0% | 2.1% | 3.40 | 3.65 | +2.4 |
| 2021 | 24 | MIX | 4 levels | 23 | 23 | 119 | 501 | 133 | 47 | 13 | 100% | 5.2 | 26.5% | 9.4% | 17.2% | 2.6% | 3.40 | 3.47 | +2.7 |
| 2022 | 25 | MIX | 2 levels | 31 | 30 | 149 | 649 | 144 | 53 | 21 | 97% | 4.8 | 21.1% | 8.3% | 12.8% | 2.6% | 5.13 | 3.82 | +2.7 |
| 2022 | 25 | MIX | 2 levels | 31 | 30 | 149 | 649 | 144 | 53 | 21 | 97% | 4.8 | 22.2% | 8.2% | 14.0% | 3.2% | 5.13 | 4.07 | +2.3 |
| 2023 | 26 | MIX | 3 levels | 13 | 13 | 54 | 242 | 47 | 32 | 2 | 100% | 4.1 | 18.9% | 13.9% | 5.0% | 0.8% | 5.20 | 3.69 | +0.5 |
| 2023 | 26 | MIX | 3 levels | 13 | 13 | 54 | 242 | 47 | 32 | 2 | 100% | 4.1 | 19.4% | 13.2% | 6.2% | 0.8% | 5.20 | 3.62 | +0.6 |
| 2024 | 27 | MIX | 2 levels | 31 | 31 | 165 | 707 | 141 | 54 | 20 | 100% | 5.3 | 19.9% | 7.5% | 12.4% | 2.2% | 4.58 | 3.58 | +3.5 |
| 2024 | 27 | MIX | 2 levels | 31 | 31 | 165 | 707 | 141 | 54 | 20 | 100% | 5.3 | 19.9% | 7.6% | 12.3% | 2.8% | 4.58 | 3.95 | +2.8 |
| 2025 | 28 | MIX | 3 levels | 13 | 13 | 53 | 251 | 40 | 34 | 9 | 100% | 4.1 | 14.9% | 14.4% | 0.5% | 3.4% | 6.11 | 5.55 | -0.6 |
| 2025 | 28 | MIX | 3 levels | 13 | 13 | 53 | 251 | 40 | 34 | 9 | 100% | 4.1 | 15.9% | 13.5% | 2.4% | 3.6% | 6.11 | 5.72 | -0.7 |
| ▸ 2026 Season | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2026 | 29 | MLB | Colorado Rockies | 15 | 15 | 72 | 302 | 56 | 25 | 11 | 100% | 4.8 | 17.6% | 9.0% | 8.6% | 4.1% | 4.12 | 5.01 | -0.2 |
| ROS | 29 | MLB | COL | 7 | 7 | 42 | 178 | 32 | 17 | 6 | 100% | 6.0 | 18.2% | 9.5% | 8.6% | 3.2% | 4.51 | 4.51 | +0.0 |
| ROS | 29 | MLB | COL | 7 | 7 | 42 | 177 | 32 | 17 | 6 | 100% | 6.0 | 18.2% | 9.5% | 8.6% | 3.2% | 4.51 | 4.51 | +0.0 |
| 2026 TOT | 29 | MLB | COL | — | — | 114 | 480 | 88 | 42 | 17 | — | — | 18.4% | 8.7% | 9.7% | 3.5% | 4.27 | 4.83 | +0.8 |
| 2026 FULL | 29 | MLB | COL | — | — | 106 | 446 | 88 | 42 | 17 | — | — | 19.8% | 9.4% | 10.4% | 3.7% | 4.62 | 4.67 | +0.9 |
| ▸ 2027+ Projections WITH CONTEXT · MLB TIME ONLY ⓘ | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 30 | MLB | COL | 14 | 14 | 84 | 353 | 62 | 35 | 12 | 100% | 6.0 | 17.6% | 9.8% | 7.8% | 3.4% | 5.00 | 5.08 | -0.0 |
| 2028 | 31 | MLB | COL | 13 | 13 | 78 | 329 | 62 | 31 | 12 | 100% | 6.0 | 18.8% | 9.4% | 9.4% | 3.6% | 5.03 | 5.04 | -0.1 |
| 2029 | 32 | MLB | COL | 12 | 12 | 72 | 304 | 55 | 30 | 12 | 100% | 6.0 | 18.0% | 9.8% | 8.2% | 3.8% | 5.19 | 5.30 | -0.4 |
| 2027 | 30 | MLB | COL | 14 | 14 | 84 | 355 | 62 | 35 | 12 | 100% | 6.0 | 17.6% | 9.8% | 7.8% | 3.4% | 5.00 | 5.08 | -0.0 |
| 2028 | 31 | MLB | COL | 13 | 13 | 78 | 329 | 62 | 31 | 12 | 100% | 6.0 | 18.8% | 9.4% | 9.4% | 3.6% | 5.03 | 5.04 | -0.1 |
| 2029 | 32 | MLB | COL | 12 | 12 | 72 | 304 | 55 | 30 | 12 | 100% | 6.0 | 18.0% | 9.8% | 8.2% | 3.8% | 5.19 | 5.30 | -0.4 |
| ▸ Career (MLB actual + context projections) | |||||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | 129 | 128 | 679 | 2920 | 549 | 268 | 97 | 99% | 5.3 | 18.8% | 9.2% | 9.6% | 3.3% | 5.05 | 4.50 | +7.2 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 38 | 38 | 200 | 860 | 162 | 79 | 29 | 99% | 5.3 | 18.8% | 9.2% | 9.6% | 3.3% | 5.05 | 4.50 | +2.1 | ||
| Career | — | 160 | 159 | 761 | 3292 | 636 | 313 | 78 | 99% | 4.8 | 19.3% | 9.5% | 9.8% | 2.4% | 4.54 | 3.97 | +12.7 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 42 | 42 | 200 | 865 | 167 | 82 | 20 | 99% | 4.8 | 19.3% | 9.5% | 9.8% | 2.4% | 4.54 | 3.97 | +3.3 | ||
Career Path Comps
What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection
| Profile at Match Age | Next 3 Yrs | Career | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Comp | Age | Role | FIP | K% | BB% | HR/BF | BABIP | FIP | K% | K-BB% | IP | ΔFIP | Low FIP | IP | Match |
| Ryan Feltner (OGILVIE) | — | — | 4.59 | 18.9% | 9.9% | 2.6% | — | 5.13 | 18.1% | 8.5% | 234 | +0.54 | — | — | — |
| Zack Segovia R 2029 · 5.00 FIP | 32 | SP | 5.00 | 15.0% | 8.3% | 3.8% | .314 | 3.41 | 20.2% | 14.3% | 39 | -1.59 | 3.41 | 144 | 71 |
| Rolando Valdez R 2026 · 3.99 FIP | 29 | SP | 3.99 | 13.3% | 5.9% | 2.3% | .301 | 3.60 | 13.2% | 7.9% | 176 | -0.39 | 2.98 | 258 | 67 |
| Tyler Herron R 2026 · 4.29 FIP | 29 | SP | 4.29 | 13.4% | 6.9% | 2.6% | .389 | 4.17 | 16.4% | 7.7% | 60 | -0.12 | 4.17 | 117 | 65 |
| Reinier Roibal R 2027 · 4.86 FIP | 30 | SP | 4.86 | 17.5% | 11.8% | 3.2% | .426 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.07 | 133 | 65 |
| Hector Ambriz R 2029 · 3.44 FIP | 32 | SP | 3.44 | 16.0% | 6.4% | 1.6% | .273 | 6.28 | 10.4% | 2.9% | 91 | +2.84 | 3.44 | 155 | 64 |
| Ariel Peña R 2025 · 3.93 FIP | 28 | SP | 3.93 | 22.5% | 12.0% | 2.2% | .304 | 5.94 | 19.9% | -5.7% | 21 | +2.01 | 3.91 | 223 | 63 |
| Randall Delgado R 2026 · 4.66 FIP | 29 | SP | 4.66 | 17.3% | 7.5% | 3.8% | .342 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.05 | 290 | 63 |
| Alfredo Aceves R 2029 · 5.01 FIP | 32 | SP | 5.01 | 10.0% | 6.2% | 3.6% | .244 | 4.83 | 9.9% | 2.0% | 107 | -0.18 | 4.71 | 160 | 62 |
| Dennis O'Grady R 2027 · 3.79 FIP | 30 | SP | 3.79 | 17.2% | 8.1% | 2.0% | .344 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.79 | 157 | 62 |
| Jorge Reyes R 2026 · 3.60 FIP | 29 | SP | 3.60 | 13.4% | 9.4% | 0.8% | .326 | 8.95 | 6.8% | -0.1% | 19 | +5.35 | 3.32 | 227 | 62 |
| Cole Johnson R 2024 · 3.48 FIP | 27 | SP | 3.48 | 14.0% | 4.8% | 1.8% | .289 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.48 | 101 | 62 |
| Felipe Paulino R 2028 · 4.68 FIP | 31 | SP | 4.68 | 15.8% | 11.8% | 2.6% | .312 | 4.79 | 15.0% | 4.8% | 26 | +0.11 | 4.68 | 150 | 61 |
| Juan Delgadillo R 2029 · 4.94 FIP | 32 | SP | 4.94 | 15.5% | 7.2% | 4.1% | .316 | 4.56 | 10.9% | 4.7% | 39 | -0.38 | 4.56 | 143 | 61 |
| Marco Quevedo R 2026 · 5.02 FIP | 29 | SP | 5.02 | 13.6% | 6.2% | 4.2% | .258 | 5.16 | 11.5% | 3.2% | 107 | +0.14 | 4.34 | 300 | 61 |
| Chuck King R 2025 · 3.70 FIP | 28 | SP | 3.70 | 17.8% | 9.3% | 1.7% | .286 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.21 | 237 | 60 |
| Braydon Tucker R 2024 · 4.76 FIP | 27 | SP | 4.76 | 16.8% | 10.3% | 3.2% | .287 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.24 | 289 | 60 |
| Drake Fellows R 2025 · 4.81 FIP | 28 | SP | 4.81 | 13.9% | 8.3% | 3.3% | .322 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.58 | 226 | 60 |
| Matt Cain R 2027 · 4.90 FIP | 30 | SP- | 4.90 | 17.1% | 6.8% | 4.3% | .296 | 4.88 | 15.2% | 7.6% | 214 | -0.02 | 4.83 | 294 | 60 |
| Hector Noesí R 2025 · 4.21 FIP | 28 | SP- | 4.21 | 17.6% | 8.1% | 2.9% | .261 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.21 | 250 | 60 |
| Daniel Guerrero R 2028 · 4.64 FIP | 31 | SP | 4.64 | 12.4% | 11.6% | 2.0% | .328 | 4.73 | 11.7% | 2.0% | 175 | +0.09 | 4.49 | 269 | 60 |
Career Comps
Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 327 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).
| Player | Yrs | IP/yr | K% | BB% | HR/9 | ERA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION | 4 | 81 | 18.3% | 9.7% | 1.29 | 4.94 |
| Adam Conley ('19) | 5 | 83 | 19.7% | 9.5% | 1.17 | 4.82 |
| Roansy Contreras ('24) | 3 | 77 | 19.5% | 10.1% | 1.36 | 4.78 |
| Jorge De La Rosa ('18) | 4 | 98 | 19.5% | 10.3% | 1.22 | 4.52 |
| Travis Wood ('17) | 3 | 85 | 20.8% | 9.8% | 1.34 | 4.72 |
| Bud Norris ('18) | 4 | 79 | 22.7% | 9.2% | 1.28 | 5.07 |
| Joe Biagini ('19) | 4 | 81 | 19.1% | 7.8% | 1.28 | 4.86 |