Beau Burrows

P Indianapolis Indians

Age 30 RHP 6'2" / 223 lbs AAA

Overview

AAARPROOKIE

Year	Age	Lvl / Team	G	GS	IP	ERA	FIP	K%	BB%	WAR	MLE rates
2024	27	MIX2 levels	16	0	22	6.45	6.50	19.6%	20.6%	—	K 13.7% · BB 23.5% · FIP 5.80
2025	28	MIX4 levels	37	1	49	2.94	3.94	25.5%	8.3%	—	K 20.7% · BB 7.8% · FIP 4.79
2026	29	AAAPIT	52	2	66	3.55	4.75	22.4%	10.8%	—	K 19.2% · BB 9.7% · FIP 5.11
2027PROJ	30	MLBPIT	148	0	155	4.94	4.94	20.3%	9.4%	-0.7
2028PROJ37% MLB	31	MLBPIT	50	0	53	5.01	5.10	19.7%	9.6%	-0.3
2029PROJ55% MLB	32	MLBPIT	70	0	74	5.16	5.30	19.1%	9.9%	-0.6

Next 3 projected WAR -1.6Projected rows: MLB playing time only, park and league context applied.

Contract

No contract data on file.

Skills · percentileStatcast 2021

FB Velo30

Whiff%10

K%10

xwOBA vs10

Career WAR0 WAR median (P10 -0 / P90 0, comp-based) · star 0% · didn't stick 98%

CompsJosh Zeid (age 30) · Hisashi Iwakuma (age 31) · Chris Jakubauskas (age 30)

2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONrates below = full-season projection

showingPROJ

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 127119vR 111

ERA4.94

FIP4.94

K%20.3%

BB%9.4%

K-BB%10.9%

Proj IP155

Value2027 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 155 IP

Grades · Statcast · Arsenal · Contract

Scouting Grades

STUF5050

CTRL5555

CMD4550

K†5050

Statcast Percentiles

FB Velo

p3093.1

Whiff%

p1017.7%

p1013.8%

xwOBA vs

p100.476

CH-2.1

FB-2.6

SL-6.1

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2027 so far)
2015	18	ROK MLE	GCL Tigers	10	9	28	111	33	11	0	90%	2.8	20.2%	12.4%	7.8%	0.0%	1.61	2.96	—
2015	18	ROK RAW	GCL Tigers	10	9	28	111	33	11	0	90%	2.8	29.7%	9.9%	19.8%	0.0%	1.61	1.92	—
2016	19	A MLE	West Michigan Whitecaps	21	20	97	405	67	30	2	95%	4.6	12.2%	8.7%	3.5%	0.8%	3.15	3.63	—
2016	19	A RAW	West Michigan Whitecaps	21	20	97	405	67	30	2	95%	4.6	16.5%	7.4%	9.1%	0.5%	3.15	2.91	—
2017	20	MIX MLE	2 levels	26	26	135	551	137	44	8	100%	5.2	19.7%	8.9%	10.8%	1.3%	3.20	3.25	—
2017	20	MIX RAW	2 levels	26	26	135	551	137	44	8	100%	5.2	24.9%	8.0%	16.9%	1.5%	3.20	2.82	—
2018	21	AA MLE	Erie SeaWolves	26	26	134	571	127	56	12	100%	5.2	18.0%	10.8%	7.2%	2.3%	4.10	4.19	—
2018	21	AA RAW	Erie SeaWolves	26	26	134	571	127	56	12	100%	5.2	22.2%	9.8%	12.4%	2.1%	4.10	3.62	—
2019	22	MIX MLE	3 levels	17	17	74	327	69	36	12	100%	4.4	18.2%	11.4%	6.8%	5.0%	4.84	5.77	—
2019	22	MIX RAW	3 levels	17	17	74	327	69	36	12	100%	4.4	21.1%	11.0%	10.1%	3.7%	4.84	4.80	—
2020	23	MLB MLE	Detroit Tigers	5	0	7	30	3	1	3	0%	1.3	10.0%	3.3%	6.7%	10.0%	5.40	8.17	-0.3
2020	23	MLB RAW	Detroit Tigers	5	0	7	30	3	1	3	0%	1.3	10.0%	3.3%	6.7%	10.0%	5.40	8.50	-0.3
2021	24	MIX MLE	2 levels	28	11	76	347	73	38	19	39%	2.7	18.8%	11.4%	7.4%	5.4%	6.37	5.91	-1.2
2021	24	MIX RAW	2 levels	28	11	76	347	73	38	19	39%	2.7	21.0%	11.0%	10.1%	5.5%	6.37	5.92	-1.2
2022	25	AAA MLE	Oklahoma City Dodgers	31	16	100	474	95	60	18	52%	3.2	17.6%	13.3%	4.3%	4.2%	7.18	5.59	—
2022	25	AAA RAW	Oklahoma City Dodgers	31	16	100	474	95	60	18	52%	3.2	20.0%	12.7%	7.4%	3.8%	7.18	5.33	—
2023	26	MIX MLE	2 levels	37	11	76	339	76	36	13	30%	2.1	19.0%	9.5%	9.5%	4.5%	5.42	5.18	—
2023	26	MIX RAW	2 levels	37	11	76	339	76	36	13	30%	2.1	22.4%	10.6%	11.8%	3.8%	5.42	4.74	—
2024	27	MIX MLE	2 levels	16	0	22	107	21	22	4	0%	1.4	13.7%	23.5%	-9.8%	1.6%	6.45	5.80	—
2024	27	MIX MLE	2 levels	16	0	22	107	21	22	4	0%	1.4	13.7%	23.5%	-9.8%	1.6%	6.45	5.80	—
2024	27	MIX RAW	2 levels	16	0	22	107	21	22	4	0%	1.4	19.6%	20.6%	-0.9%	3.7%	6.45	6.50	—
2025	28	MIX MLE	4 levels	37	1	49	192	49	16	7	3%	1.3	20.7%	7.8%	13.0%	4.5%	2.94	4.79	—
2025	28	MIX MLE	4 levels	37	1	49	192	49	16	7	3%	1.3	20.7%	7.8%	13.0%	4.5%	2.94	4.79	—
2025	28	MIX RAW	4 levels	37	1	49	192	49	16	7	3%	1.3	25.5%	8.3%	17.2%	3.6%	2.94	3.94	—
2026	29	AAA MLE	Indianapolis Indians	52	2	66	277	62	30	11	4%	1.3	19.2%	9.7%	9.5%	4.4%	3.55	5.11	—
2026	29	AAA MLE	Indianapolis Indians	52	2	66	277	62	30	11	4%	1.3	19.2%	9.7%	9.5%	4.4%	3.55	5.11	—
2026	29	AAA RAW	Indianapolis Indians	52	2	66	277	62	30	11	4%	1.3	22.4%	10.8%	11.6%	4.0%	3.55	4.75	—
▸ Career totals (raw MLB only — as recorded)
MLB Career	—			11	1	18	88	11	11	8	9%	1.6	12.5%	12.5%	0.0%	9.1%	10.70	9.61	-1.0
▸ 2027 season — projected remainder (no 2027 stats recorded)
2027	30	MLB	PIT	148	0	155	654	133	62	24	0%	1.0	20.3%	9.4%	10.9%	3.6%	4.94	4.94	-0.7
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2028	31	MLB MLE	PIT	138	0	144	610	120	59	23	0%	1.0	19.7%	9.6%	10.1%	3.8%	5.01	5.10	-0.9
2029	32	MLB MLE	PIT	127	0	134	565	108	56	22	0%	1.1	19.1%	9.9%	9.2%	4.0%	5.16	5.30	-1.1
2028	31	MLB CTX	PIT	50	0	53	224	44	22	8	0%	1.1	19.7%	9.6%	10.1%	3.8%	5.01	5.10	-0.3
2029	32	MLB CTX	PIT	70	0	74	312	60	31	12	0%	1.1	19.1%	9.9%	9.2%	4.0%	5.16	5.30	-0.6
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		132	1	144	624	115	63	29	1%	1.1	18.4%	10.2%	8.2%	4.6%	5.78	5.37	-1.4
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		182	1	200	863	159	87	40	1%	1.1	18.4%	10.2%	8.2%	4.6%	5.78	5.37	-1.9
Career	—	MLE		306	139	865	3731	667	400	119	45%	2.8	17.9%	10.7%	7.2%	3.2%	4.47	4.70	-3.1
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		71	32	200	862	154	92	28	45%	2.8	17.9%	10.7%	7.2%	3.2%	4.47	4.70	-2.1

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Beau Burrows (OGILVIE)	—	—	4.94	20.3%	9.4%	3.6%	—	5.20	19.4%	9.7%	278	+0.26	—	—	—
Josh Zeid R 2017 · 5.35 FIP	30	SW	5.35	18.3%	10.8%	4.4%	.334	—	—	—	—	—	4.00	313	71
Hisashi Iwakuma R 2012 · 4.28 FIP	31	SP-	4.28	19.5%	7.7%	3.4%	.277	3.45	21.5%	17.8%	528	-0.83	3.19	884	68
Chris Jakubauskas R 2009 · 4.97 FIP	30	SW	4.97	12.1%	6.2%	3.9%	.250	4.42	15.7%	7.8%	72	-0.55	4.42	165	64
Matt Palmer R 2009 · 4.58 FIP	30	SW	4.58	13.7%	10.5%	2.4%	.251	3.72	10.6%	0.5%	49	-0.86	2.98	183	64
Tim Adleman R 2017 · 5.35 FIP	29	SP-	5.35	20.3%	9.4%	5.1%	.276	4.30	22.8%	15.0%	117	-1.05	3.63	605	63
Scott Carroll R 2015 · 3.92 FIP	30	SW	3.92	12.7%	7.7%	1.7%	.286	5.07	11.2%	2.6%	128	+1.15	3.92	377	62
Deck McGuire R 2018 · 5.28 FIP	29	SW	5.28	18.4%	13.2%	3.8%	.262	—	—	—	—	—	3.41	622	62
Felipe Arredondo R 2017 · 4.76 FIP	30	SW	4.76	14.8%	7.3%	3.6%	.311	4.65	16.2%	9.1%	64	-0.11	3.92	337	61
Yoanner Negrin R 2015 · 3.79 FIP	31	SW	3.79	15.1%	7.5%	1.9%	.256	3.29	15.0%	8.5%	270	-0.50	3.15	485	61
Todd Redmond R 2015 · 3.86 FIP	30	SW	3.86	15.4%	7.1%	2.1%	.311	—	—	—	—	—	3.21	247	61
Rodolfo Aguirre R 2015 · 4.29 FIP	30	SW	4.29	12.4%	6.9%	2.5%	.288	4.81	11.4%	1.3%	125	+0.52	3.39	212	60
Spencer Bivens R 2024 · 4.07 FIP	30	SU	4.07	18.0%	5.8%	3.2%	.265	3.88	18.2%	10.9%	157	-0.19	3.52	391	60
Jorge Campillo R 2008 · 3.93 FIP	29	SP-	3.93	16.3%	5.5%	2.8%	.283	—	—	—	—	—	3.93	172	60
Scott McGregor R 2015 · 4.37 FIP	28	SP-	4.37	11.8%	7.6%	2.4%	.293	—	—	—	—	—	4.37	107	60
Elian Leyva R 2019 · 4.30 FIP	30	SP-	4.30	17.0%	8.5%	2.9%	.323	—	—	—	—	—	3.10	158	59
Odrisamer Despaigne R 2017 · 4.09 FIP	30	SW	4.09	13.7%	8.7%	1.9%	.270	3.53	19.1%	10.5%	220	-0.56	3.13	689	59
Mike Bolsinger R 2017 · 4.26 FIP	29	SW	4.26	20.2%	9.4%	3.0%	.317	—	—	—	—	—	3.42	379	59
Casey Lawrence R 2018 · 3.77 FIP	30	SP-	3.77	18.1%	4.4%	3.0%	.305	4.08	20.0%	14.8%	86	+0.31	3.57	1,374	59
Aaron Wilkerson R 2019 · 4.67 FIP	30	SP-	4.67	20.9%	9.8%	3.8%	.291	3.33	24.6%	19.0%	112	-1.34	2.75	902	59
Aldo Montes R 2019 · 4.69 FIP	29	SW	4.69	18.2%	10.6%	3.3%	.336	—	—	—	—	—	4.69	210	58

Career Comps

Completed MLB careers (no pro action in 2+ yrs) whose totals — actual + projected — most resemble this player's. Pool: 1,853 starter careers (497 from 1990-2025 + 1,356 historical, 1901-2023), also matched on career-to-date at the same age. * Historical (Lahman) careers: rates era-adjusted to 2001-24 league levels; WAR is an OGILVIE proxy.

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	2.3	150	19.4%	9.8%	1.55	5.25
Wayland Dean ('24-'27, -1 WAR*)	2.4	162	18.6%*	10.1%*	1.45*	5.13*
Kevin Foster ('01)	2.5	127	18.9%	10.0%	1.55	4.86
Bill Grahame ('08-'10, 0 WAR*)	1.7	116	17.7%*	9.3%*	1.52*	5.11*
Yank Terry ('40-'45, 0 WAR*)	2.3	114	18.0%*	9.4%*	1.76*	4.99*
Matt Beech ('98)	1.5	98	20.2%	10.0%	1.59	5.37
James Kaprielian ('23)	1.6	106	20.5%	9.7%	1.30	4.61