Justin Maese prospect projection, MLE, ETA

Justin Maese P Somerset Patriots

Age 29 RHP 6'3" / 190 lbs AA

2026 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONpark-neutral Marcel · 13 proj IP

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 121112vR 104

ERA4.60

FIP4.60

K%22.4%

BB%10.6%

K-BB%11.8%

ROS IP13

Value2026 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 13 IP

Grades · Contract

Scouting Grades

K†5555

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2026 so far)
2015	18	ROK MLE	GCL Blue Jays	8	4	36	143	19	6	0	50%	4.5	9.0%	5.2%	3.8%	0.0%	1.01	3.00	—
2015	18	ROK RAW	GCL Blue Jays	8	4	36	143	19	6	0	50%	4.5	13.3%	4.2%	9.1%	0.0%	1.01	2.54	—
2016	19	A MLE	Lansing Lugnuts	10	10	56	236	44	14	2	100%	5.6	13.8%	7.0%	6.8%	1.1%	3.36	3.45	—
2016	19	A RAW	Lansing Lugnuts	10	10	56	236	44	14	2	100%	5.6	18.6%	5.9%	12.7%	0.8%	3.36	2.74	—
2017	20	MIX MLE	2 levels	15	15	80	350	69	27	4	100%	5.3	14.3%	9.9%	4.4%	1.4%	4.86	3.92	—
2017	20	MIX RAW	2 levels	15	15	80	350	69	27	4	100%	5.3	19.7%	7.7%	12.0%	1.1%	4.86	3.04	—
2019	22	ROK MLE	GCL Blue Jays	3	1	5	24	4	2	0	33%	1.7	16.7%	8.3%	8.3%	0.0%	7.20	2.75	—
2019	22	ROK RAW	GCL Blue Jays	3	1	5	24	4	2	0	33%	1.7	16.7%	8.3%	8.3%	0.0%	7.20	2.70	—
2021	24	A+ MLE	Vancouver Canadians	33	0	53	244	63	30	4	0%	1.6	19.9%	14.1%	5.7%	2.3%	4.75	4.45	—
2021	24	A+ RAW	Vancouver Canadians	33	0	53	244	63	30	4	0%	1.6	25.8%	12.3%	13.5%	1.6%	4.75	3.40	—
2022	25	AA MLE	Mississippi Braves	50	0	54	246	69	21	7	0%	1.1	22.7%	9.4%	13.3%	3.7%	4.70	4.39	—
2022	25	AA RAW	Mississippi Braves	50	0	54	246	69	21	7	0%	1.1	28.0%	8.5%	19.5%	2.8%	4.70	3.40	—
2023	26	AA MLE	Somerset Patriots	14	0	23	109	26	14	5	0%	1.6	19.3%	14.1%	5.2%	5.3%	7.04	6.18	—
2023	26	AA MLE	Somerset Patriots	14	0	23	109	26	14	5	0%	1.6	19.3%	14.1%	5.2%	5.3%	7.04	6.18	—
2023	26	AA RAW	Somerset Patriots	14	0	23	109	26	14	5	0%	1.6	23.9%	12.8%	11.0%	4.6%	7.04	5.49	—
▸ 2026 season — projected remainder (no 2026 stats recorded)
2026	29	MLB	NYY	—	—	0	—	—	—	—	—	—	22.4%	10.6%	11.8%	3.1%	4.60	4.60	—
▸ Career projection (2027+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2027	30	MLB MLE	NYY	19	0	20	84	19	9	3	0%	1.1	22.1%	10.7%	11.4%	3.2%	4.68	4.75	-0.0
2027	30	MLB CTX	NYY	6	0	6	25	6	3	1	0%	1.0	22.1%	10.7%	11.4%	3.2%	4.68	4.75	-0.0
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		6	0	6	26	6	3	1	0%	1.0	22.1%	10.7%	11.4%	3.2%	4.68	4.37	+0.0
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		190	0	200	844	192	96	32	0%	1.1	22.1%	10.7%	11.4%	3.2%	4.68	4.37	+0.4
Career	—	MLE		133	30	306	1352	225	134	28	23%	2.3	16.6%	9.9%	6.8%	2.1%	4.29	4.08	-0.0
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		87	20	200	883	147	87	18	23%	2.3	16.6%	9.9%	6.8%	2.1%	4.29	4.08	-0.5

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Justin Maese (OGILVIE)	—	—	4.60	22.4%	10.6%	3.1%	—	4.75	22.1%	11.4%	20	+0.15	—	—	—
Diego Moreno R 2016 · 3.75 FIP	29	SU	3.75	21.0%	8.2%	2.5%	.347	3.13	17.8%	11.9%	54	-0.62	2.29	187	78
Jim Miller R 2012 · 4.56 FIP	30	SU	4.56	20.9%	11.8%	3.1%	.243	3.95	18.8%	14.7%	74	-0.61	3.95	140	75
Dustin Molleken R 2015 · 3.74 FIP	30	SU	3.74	20.4%	11.7%	1.6%	.287	3.90	20.6%	8.4%	77	+0.16	3.38	129	74
Coleman Huntley III R 2022 · 4.05 FIP	29	SU	4.05	24.4%	10.9%	3.0%	.311	2.38	20.9%	12.6%	25	-1.67	2.38	160	74
Wirfin Obispo R 2015 · 4.80 FIP	30	SU	4.80	18.6%	12.2%	3.1%	.292	1.31	28.6%	24.5%	126	-3.49	1.30	218	72
Joe Nelson R 2006 · 3.91 FIP	31	SU	3.91	22.8%	10.4%	2.6%	.258	4.05	23.4%	12.8%	94	+0.14	3.08	139	72
Tyler Sturdevant R 2015 · 4.37 FIP	29	SU	4.37	21.3%	8.5%	3.6%	.241	3.97	18.5%	11.9%	118	-0.40	3.44	149	72
Jason Bulger R 2008 · 4.60 FIP	29	SU	4.60	27.4%	12.3%	4.1%	.293	3.94	25.1%	13.3%	90	-0.66	3.78	106	72
Daniel Robert R 2023 · 3.45 FIP	28	SU	3.45	22.7%	10.7%	1.7%	.310	3.02	25.4%	17.1%	87	-0.43	2.32	186	71
Neil Wagner R 2013 · 4.02 FIP	29	SU	4.02	20.5%	7.5%	3.1%	.306	4.05	19.8%	7.5%	43	+0.03	3.11	135	71
Brandon Cunniff R 2017 · 4.79 FIP	28	SU	4.79	20.1%	11.6%	3.5%	.275	6.80	13.9%	-1.9%	30	+2.01	3.89	180	71
Gregory Infante R 2016 · 4.47 FIP	29	SU	4.47	19.0%	12.3%	2.6%	.333	3.43	22.5%	15.8%	120	-1.04	2.97	230	71
Sam Gardner R 2023 · 4.04 FIP	26	SU	4.04	23.8%	15.1%	1.9%	.298	3.23	26.7%	16.4%	76	-0.81	2.28	121	71
Thad Weber R 2013 · 5.18 FIP	28	SU	5.18	16.4%	13.1%	3.3%	.244	4.52	12.2%	6.0%	308	-0.66	4.40	378	70
Alex Powers R 2021 · 4.24 FIP	29	SU	4.24	25.0%	10.3%	3.5%	.312	—	—	—	—	—	2.82	264	70
Cody Hall R 2017 · 4.03 FIP	29	SU	4.03	26.8%	10.0%	3.5%	.299	3.92	25.9%	8.4%	19	-0.11	3.51	134	70
Yoanner Negrin R 2015 · 3.79 FIP	31	SW	3.79	15.1%	7.5%	1.9%	.256	3.29	15.0%	8.5%	270	-0.50	3.15	485	70
Angel Castro R 2015 · 4.50 FIP	32	SU	4.50	15.9%	8.0%	3.1%	.268	4.28	13.6%	5.5%	231	-0.22	3.51	292	70
Kaleb Bowman R 2023 · 3.88 FIP	26	SU	3.88	22.0%	7.5%	3.1%	.333	4.65	17.5%	6.2%	170	+0.77	3.88	203	69
Nolan Clenney R 2023 · 4.76 FIP	27	SU	4.76	23.0%	10.1%	4.2%	.341	4.58	17.2%	7.5%	71	-0.18	3.73	223	69