Mauricio Llovera

P Tacoma Rainiers

Age 31 RHP 5'11" / 224 lbs AAA peak 0.1 · 2027

Overview

AAARP

Year	Age	Lvl / Team	G	GS	IP	ERA	FIP	K%	BB%	WAR	MLE rates
2022	26	MIX2 levels	32	1	36	1.98	2.00	32.0%	6.7%	1.1	K 29.8% · BB 6.8% · FIP 2.24
2023	27	MIX3 levels	49	4	58	4.53	3.60	23.0%	7.1%	0.6	K 20.3% · BB 7.1% · FIP 3.91
2024	28	MIX2 levels	17	3	20	4.58	4.88	16.5%	9.4%	—	K 14.5% · BB 10.1% · FIP 5.39
2027PROJ	31	MLBSEA	52	0	55	4.48	4.55	22.1%	10.0%	0.0
2028PROJ37% MLB	32	MLBSEA	18	0	19	4.65	4.78	21.4%	10.3%	-0.0
2029PROJ55% MLB	33	MLBSEA	25	0	26	4.86	5.02	20.8%	10.7%	-0.1

Last 3 seasons WAR 1.8 · Next 3 projected WAR -0.2Projected rows: MLB playing time only, park and league context applied.

Contract

No contract data on file.

Skills · percentileStatcast 2023

FB Velo57

xwOBA vs25

K%22

Whiff%10

CompsYoanner Negrin (age 31) · Robert Stock (age 31) · Dustin Molleken (age 31)

2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONrates below = full-season projection

showingPROJ

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 122113vR 105

ERA4.48

FIP4.55

K%22.1%

BB%10.0%

K-BB%12.2%

Proj IP55

Value2027 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 55 IP

Grades · Statcast · Arsenal · Contract

Scouting Grades

STUF4545

CTRL4545

CMD4545

K†5555

Statcast Percentiles

FB Velo

p5795.0

Whiff%

p1017.7%

p2218.1%

xwOBA vs

p250.341

FB+5.4

CT-1.9

SL-2.8

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2027 so far)
2015	19	ROK MLE	VSL Phillies	11	10	47	194	43	17	1	91%	4.3	15.1%	11.0%	4.1%	0.7%	3.23	3.61	—
2015	19	ROK RAW	VSL Phillies	11	10	47	194	43	17	1	91%	4.3	22.2%	8.8%	13.4%	0.5%	3.23	2.64	—
2016	20	ROK MLE	GCL Phillies	11	10	53	213	56	12	0	91%	4.8	17.9%	7.0%	10.8%	0.0%	1.87	2.48	—
2016	20	ROK RAW	GCL Phillies	11	10	53	213	56	12	0	91%	4.8	26.3%	5.6%	20.7%	0.0%	1.87	1.67	—
2017	21	A MLE	Lakewood BlueClaws	30	10	86	371	94	32	2	33%	2.9	18.7%	10.2%	8.6%	0.8%	3.35	3.26	—
2017	21	A RAW	Lakewood BlueClaws	30	10	86	371	94	32	2	33%	2.9	25.3%	8.6%	16.7%	0.5%	3.35	2.33	—
2018	22	A+ MLE	Clearwater Threshers	23	22	121	507	137	34	14	96%	5.3	20.8%	7.7%	13.1%	2.9%	3.72	3.90	—
2018	22	A+ RAW	Clearwater Threshers	23	22	121	507	137	34	14	96%	5.3	27.0%	6.7%	20.3%	2.8%	3.72	3.18	—
2019	23	AA MLE	Reading Fightin Phils	14	12	65	285	72	28	7	86%	4.7	20.5%	10.8%	9.7%	2.5%	4.55	4.11	—
2019	23	AA RAW	Reading Fightin Phils	14	12	65	285	72	28	7	86%	4.7	25.3%	9.8%	15.4%	2.5%	4.55	3.57	—
2020	24	MLB MLE	Philadelphia Phillies	1	0	1	10	1	1	0	0%	1.0	10.0%	10.0%	0.0%	0.0%	36.00	3.52	+0.0
2020	24	MLB RAW	Philadelphia Phillies	1	0	1	10	1	1	0	0%	1.0	10.0%	10.0%	0.0%	0.0%	36.00	4.10	+0.0
2021	25	MIX MLE	2 levels	38	4	59	259	55	26	10	11%	1.5	18.9%	10.3%	8.5%	2.6%	4.14	4.22	+0.2
2021	25	MIX RAW	2 levels	38	4	59	259	55	26	10	11%	1.5	21.2%	10.0%	11.2%	3.9%	4.14	4.77	-0.2
2022	26	MIX MLE	2 levels	32	1	36	150	48	10	2	3%	1.1	29.8%	6.8%	23.0%	1.4%	1.98	2.24	+1.0
2022	26	MIX RAW	2 levels	32	1	36	150	48	10	2	3%	1.1	32.0%	6.7%	25.3%	1.3%	1.98	2.00	+1.1
2023	27	MIX MLE	3 levels	49	4	58	252	58	18	7	8%	1.2	20.3%	7.1%	13.2%	3.0%	4.53	3.91	+0.4
2023	27	MIX RAW	3 levels	49	4	58	252	58	18	7	8%	1.2	23.0%	7.1%	15.9%	2.8%	4.53	3.60	+0.6
2024	28	MIX MLE	2 levels	17	3	20	85	14	8	3	18%	1.2	14.5%	10.1%	4.4%	4.1%	4.58	5.39	—
2024	28	MIX MLE	2 levels	17	3	20	85	14	8	3	18%	1.2	14.5%	10.1%	4.4%	4.1%	4.58	5.39	—
2024	28	MIX RAW	2 levels	17	3	20	85	14	8	3	18%	1.2	16.5%	9.4%	7.1%	3.5%	4.58	4.88	—
▸ Career totals (raw MLB only — as recorded)
MLB Career	—			54	1	59	277	57	24	10	2%	1.1	20.6%	8.7%	11.9%	3.6%	5.80	4.59	-0.0
▸ 2027 season — projected remainder (no 2027 stats recorded)
2027	31	MLB	SEA	52	0	55	232	51	23	7	0%	1.1	22.1%	10.0%	12.2%	3.1%	4.48	4.55	0.0
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2028	32	MLB MLE	SEA	49	0	51	216	46	22	7	0%	1.0	21.4%	10.3%	11.2%	3.3%	4.65	4.78	-0.1
2029	33	MLB MLE	SEA	45	0	47	198	41	21	7	0%	1.0	20.8%	10.7%	10.1%	3.5%	4.86	5.02	-0.2
2030	34	MLB MLE	SEA	41	0	43	181	36	20	7	0%	1.0	20.0%	11.1%	8.9%	3.8%	5.11	5.29	-0.3
2028	32	MLB CTX	SEA	18	0	19	80	17	8	3	0%	1.1	21.4%	10.3%	11.2%	3.3%	4.65	4.78	-0.0
2029	33	MLB CTX	SEA	25	0	26	110	23	12	4	0%	1.0	20.8%	10.7%	10.1%	3.5%	4.86	5.02	-0.1
2030	34	MLB CTX	SEA	21	0	22	93	19	10	4	0%	1.0	20.0%	11.1%	8.9%	3.8%	5.11	5.29	-0.2
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		117	1	125	557	115	54	20	1%	1.1	20.6%	9.7%	11.0%	3.6%	5.31	4.55	-0.0
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		187	2	200	889	183	86	32	1%	1.1	20.6%	9.7%	11.0%	3.6%	5.31	4.55	-0.0
Career	—	MLE		226	76	546	2326	459	208	46	34%	2.4	19.7%	9.0%	10.8%	2.0%	3.64	3.65	-0.8
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		83	28	200	852	168	76	17	34%	2.4	19.7%	9.0%	10.8%	2.0%	3.64	3.65	-0.8

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Mauricio Llovera (OGILVIE)	—	—	4.55	22.1%	10.0%	3.1%	—	5.01	20.8%	10.1%	141	+0.46	—	—	—
Yoanner Negrin R 2015 · 3.79 FIP	31	SW	3.79	15.1%	7.5%	1.9%	.256	3.29	15.0%	8.5%	270	-0.50	3.15	485	75
Robert Stock R 2021 · 4.18 FIP	31	SW	4.18	23.0%	8.5%	3.5%	.301	7.20	14.3%	0.1%	23	+3.02	2.74	378	74
Dustin Molleken R 2016 · 4.04 FIP	31	SU	4.04	19.6%	12.1%	1.9%	.276	3.38	24.3%	11.9%	16	-0.66	3.38	129	73
Angel Sánchez R 2023 · 4.90 FIP	33	SW	4.90	19.0%	10.5%	3.8%	.333	3.77	11.8%	6.8%	27	-1.13	3.77	284	73
Felipe Arredondo R 2017 · 4.76 FIP	30	SW	4.76	14.8%	7.3%	3.6%	.311	4.65	16.2%	9.1%	64	-0.11	3.92	337	71
Jim Miller R 2012 · 4.56 FIP	30	SU	4.56	20.9%	11.8%	3.1%	.243	3.95	18.8%	14.7%	74	-0.61	3.95	140	70
Angel Castro R 2015 · 4.50 FIP	32	SU	4.50	15.9%	8.0%	3.1%	.268	4.28	13.6%	5.5%	231	-0.22	3.51	292	70
Mike Broadway R 2018 · 4.65 FIP	31	SU	4.65	23.0%	10.6%	3.9%	.282	—	—	—	—	—	1.74	195	69
Cody Satterwhite R 2017 · 4.22 FIP	30	SU	4.22	17.0%	7.1%	3.0%	.310	—	—	—	—	—	3.69	147	68
Rudy Gonzalez R 2015 · 4.52 FIP	34	SW	4.52	13.5%	9.6%	2.4%	.347	3.84	14.0%	6.5%	79	-0.68	3.31	119	68
Joe Nelson R 2006 · 3.91 FIP	31	SU	3.91	22.8%	10.4%	2.6%	.258	4.05	23.4%	12.8%	94	+0.14	3.08	139	67
Murphy Smith R 2018 · 4.57 FIP	30	SW	4.57	13.6%	9.3%	2.6%	.273	—	—	—	—	—	3.16	300	67
Spencer Bivens R 2024 · 4.07 FIP	30	SU	4.07	18.0%	5.8%	3.2%	.265	3.88	18.2%	10.9%	157	-0.19	3.52	391	66
Clay Hensley R 2011 · 4.78 FIP	31	SW	4.78	15.5%	9.8%	3.2%	.249	4.37	17.9%	5.9%	51	-0.41	2.58	517	66
Tim Dillard R 2015 · 3.58 FIP	32	SW	3.58	15.9%	7.7%	1.5%	.330	3.85	16.7%	8.1%	144	+0.27	2.92	432	66
Grant Black R 2023 · 5.49 FIP	29	SU	5.49	15.9%	11.3%	4.2%	.352	—	—	—	—	—	4.46	215	65
Edgar Alberto Garcia R 2017 · 4.01 FIP	29	SP-	4.01	17.3%	10.9%	1.8%	.305	—	—	—	—	—	4.01	272	65
Chris Jakubauskas R 2009 · 4.97 FIP	30	SW	4.97	12.1%	6.2%	3.9%	.250	4.42	15.7%	7.8%	72	-0.55	4.42	165	65
Jason Urquidez R 2015 · 3.59 FIP	32	SU	3.59	15.6%	9.3%	1.1%	.386	1.81	25.5%	20.7%	90	-1.78	1.25	123	65
Erik Davis R 2018 · 3.52 FIP	31	SU	3.52	17.4%	8.9%	1.4%	.317	—	—	—	—	—	3.05	227	64

Career Comps

Completed MLB careers (no pro action in 2+ yrs) whose totals — actual + projected — most resemble this player's. Pool: 1,474 reliever careers (754 from 1990-2025 + 720 historical, 1901-2023), also matched on career-to-date at the same age. * Historical (Lahman) careers: rates era-adjusted to 2001-24 league levels; WAR is an OGILVIE proxy.

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	1.3	51	21.0%	10.4%	1.34	4.99
Sam Long ('25)	1.1	42	19.5%	9.7%	1.28	4.65
Will Cunnane ('04)	1.4	46	18.9%	10.4%	1.25	5.26
Buck Farmer ('24)	2.6	51	21.6%	10.5%	1.24	4.71
Daryl Patterson ('68-'74, -1 WAR*)	1.2	46	18.3%*	11.2%*	1.27*	5.03*
Phil Hennigan ('69-'73, -0 WAR*)	1.4	70	20.9%*	10.4%*	1.50*	4.95*
Bill Wilson ('69-'73, -0 WAR*)	1.3	52	20.3%*	11.5%*	1.13*	4.84*