Alan Rangel
P
Lehigh Valley IronPigs
Age 28
RHP
6'2" / 170 lbs
AAA
2026 ROS PROJECTION89 act + 84 ip · rates below = ROS only
wRC+ AGAINSTvL 129120vR 111
ERA4.88
FIP4.88
K%21.6%
BB%7.9%
K-BB%13.7%
ROS IP84
Value2026 · WAR
Runs saved vs league avg · 174 IP
Grades · Statcast · Arsenal · Contract
Statcast Percentiles
FB Velo
p2792.9
Whiff%
p4023.8%
K%
p7025.9%
xwOBA vs
p720.291
FB+0.7 (36%)
SL (17%)
CU (13%)
CH (34%)
Contract
No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.
Career Stats + Projections
Viewactual = stats as recorded (seasons combined) + projected real-world MLB lines · MLE = level/park-neutral translations
Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed
Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | G | GS | IP | BF | K | BB | HR | GS% | IP/G | K% | BB% | K-BB% | HR% | ERA | FIP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2015 | 17 | ROK | GCL Braves | 14 | 1 | 26 | 116 | 23 | 9 | 3 | 7% | 1.8 | 13.5% | 9.7% | 3.8% | 3.6% | 6.31 | 5.18 | — |
| 2015 | 17 | ROK | GCL Braves | 14 | 1 | 26 | 116 | 23 | 9 | 3 | 7% | 1.8 | 19.8% | 7.8% | 12.1% | 2.6% | 6.31 | 3.88 | — |
| 2016 | 18 | ROK | GCL Braves | 12 | 9 | 47 | 189 | 47 | 10 | 2 | 75% | 3.9 | 16.9% | 6.6% | 10.3% | 1.5% | 3.28 | 3.32 | — |
| 2016 | 18 | ROK | GCL Braves | 12 | 9 | 47 | 189 | 47 | 10 | 2 | 75% | 3.9 | 24.9% | 5.3% | 19.6% | 1.1% | 3.28 | 2.29 | — |
| 2017 | 19 | A | Rome Braves | 15 | 13 | 71 | 299 | 48 | 14 | 5 | 87% | 4.7 | 11.9% | 5.5% | 6.4% | 4.3% | 4.71 | 5.15 | — |
| 2017 | 19 | A | Rome Braves | 15 | 13 | 71 | 299 | 48 | 14 | 5 | 87% | 4.7 | 16.1% | 4.7% | 11.4% | 1.7% | 4.71 | 3.26 | — |
| 2018 | 20 | A | Rome Braves | 25 | 22 | 125 | 533 | 105 | 31 | 12 | 88% | 5.0 | 14.6% | 6.9% | 7.7% | 3.9% | 4.09 | 4.85 | — |
| 2018 | 20 | A | Rome Braves | 25 | 22 | 125 | 533 | 105 | 31 | 12 | 88% | 5.0 | 19.7% | 5.8% | 13.9% | 2.3% | 4.09 | 3.41 | — |
| 2019 | 21 | A | Rome Braves | 28 | 24 | 132 | 581 | 121 | 46 | 10 | 86% | 4.7 | 15.4% | 9.3% | 6.1% | 3.2% | 4.51 | 4.73 | — |
| 2019 | 21 | A | Rome Braves | 28 | 24 | 132 | 581 | 121 | 46 | 10 | 86% | 4.7 | 20.8% | 7.9% | 12.9% | 1.7% | 4.51 | 3.30 | — |
| 2021 | 23 | MIX | 2 levels | 22 | 21 | 105 | 425 | 136 | 26 | 11 | 95% | 4.8 | 25.0% | 7.0% | 18.0% | 4.4% | 3.87 | 4.29 | — |
| 2021 | 23 | MIX | 2 levels | 22 | 21 | 105 | 425 | 136 | 26 | 11 | 95% | 4.8 | 32.0% | 6.1% | 25.9% | 2.6% | 3.87 | 2.61 | — |
| 2022 | 24 | MIX | 2 levels | 27 | 27 | 118 | 526 | 144 | 52 | 15 | 100% | 4.4 | 22.0% | 10.8% | 11.3% | 4.1% | 5.28 | 4.87 | — |
| 2022 | 24 | MIX | 2 levels | 27 | 27 | 118 | 526 | 144 | 52 | 15 | 100% | 4.4 | 27.4% | 9.9% | 17.5% | 2.9% | 5.28 | 3.64 | — |
| 2023 | 25 | MIX | 2 levels | 26 | 25 | 127 | 548 | 140 | 50 | 18 | 96% | 4.9 | 20.8% | 10.0% | 10.9% | 6.4% | 4.61 | 6.11 | — |
| 2023 | 25 | MIX | 2 levels | 26 | 25 | 127 | 548 | 140 | 50 | 18 | 96% | 4.9 | 25.5% | 9.1% | 16.4% | 3.3% | 4.61 | 3.92 | — |
| 2024 | 26 | MIX | 4 levels | 18 | 13 | 57 | 227 | 62 | 14 | 6 | 72% | 3.2 | 21.3% | 7.0% | 14.3% | 3.5% | 3.77 | 4.13 | — |
| 2024 | 26 | MIX | 4 levels | 18 | 13 | 57 | 227 | 62 | 14 | 6 | 72% | 3.2 | 27.3% | 6.2% | 21.1% | 2.6% | 3.77 | 3.03 | — |
| 2025 | 27 | MIX | 2 levels | 30 | 25 | 136 | 576 | 139 | 46 | 30 | 83% | 4.5 | 21.8% | 7.9% | 13.8% | 6.7% | 4.38 | 5.96 | -0.9 |
| 2025 | 27 | MIX | 2 levels | 30 | 25 | 136 | 576 | 139 | 46 | 30 | 83% | 4.5 | 24.1% | 8.0% | 16.1% | 5.2% | 4.38 | 4.94 | +0.7 |
| ▸ 2026 Season | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2026 | 28 | MLB | Philadelphia Phillies | 19 | 13 | 89 | 379 | 95 | 36 | 13 | 68% | 4.7 | 22.8% | 9.9% | 12.9% | 3.7% | 4.03 | 4.45 | +0.8 |
| ROS | 28 | MLB | PHI | 12 | 12 | 84 | 356 | 77 | 28 | 17 | 100% | 7.0 | 21.6% | 7.9% | 13.7% | 4.7% | 4.88 | 4.88 | +0.2 |
| ROS | 28 | MLB | PHI | 12 | 12 | 84 | 355 | 77 | 28 | 17 | 100% | 7.0 | 21.6% | 7.9% | 13.7% | 4.7% | 4.88 | 4.88 | +0.2 |
| 2026 TOT | 28 | MLB | PHI | — | — | 174 | 735 | 172 | 64 | 30 | — | — | 23.4% | 8.7% | 14.6% | 4.1% | 4.44 | 4.66 | +1.5 |
| 2026 FULL | 28 | MLB | PHI | — | — | 104 | 437 | 172 | 64 | 30 | — | — | 39.3% | 14.7% | 24.6% | 6.8% | 7.44 | 5.38 | +0.0 |
| ▸ 2027+ Projections WITH CONTEXT · MLB TIME ONLY ⓘ | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 29 | MLB | PHI | 25 | 25 | 149 | 628 | 137 | 52 | 29 | 100% | 5.9 | 21.9% | 8.3% | 13.6% | 4.7% | 5.19 | 5.24 | +0.3 |
| 2028 | 30 | MLB | PHI | 23 | 23 | 140 | 590 | 127 | 50 | 28 | 100% | 6.1 | 21.6% | 8.5% | 13.0% | 4.8% | 5.26 | 5.35 | +0.1 |
| 2029 | 31 | MLB | PHI | 22 | 22 | 130 | 551 | 117 | 49 | 27 | 100% | 5.9 | 21.2% | 8.8% | 12.3% | 4.9% | 5.38 | 5.49 | -0.1 |
| 2027 | 29 | MLB | PHI | 24 | 24 | 141 | 595 | 130 | 49 | 28 | 100% | 5.9 | 21.9% | 8.3% | 13.6% | 4.7% | 5.19 | 5.24 | +0.3 |
| 2028 | 30 | MLB | PHI | 22 | 22 | 133 | 562 | 121 | 48 | 27 | 100% | 6.0 | 21.6% | 8.5% | 13.0% | 4.8% | 5.26 | 5.35 | +0.1 |
| 2029 | 31 | MLB | PHI | 21 | 21 | 124 | 524 | 111 | 46 | 26 | 100% | 5.9 | 21.2% | 8.8% | 12.3% | 4.9% | 5.38 | 5.49 | -0.1 |
| ▸ Career (MLB actual + context projections) | |||||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | 89 | 81 | 513 | 2167 | 469 | 187 | 101 | 91% | 5.8 | 21.6% | 8.6% | 13.0% | 4.7% | 5.11 | 4.92 | +2.9 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 35 | 31 | 200 | 846 | 183 | 73 | 39 | 91% | 5.8 | 21.6% | 8.6% | 13.0% | 4.7% | 5.11 | 4.92 | +1.1 | ||
| Career | — | 236 | 193 | 1032 | 4399 | 847 | 371 | 195 | 82% | 4.4 | 19.3% | 8.4% | 10.8% | 4.4% | 4.40 | 4.98 | +5.1 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 46 | 37 | 200 | 853 | 164 | 72 | 38 | 82% | 4.4 | 19.3% | 8.4% | 10.8% | 4.4% | 4.40 | 4.98 | +1.0 | ||
Career Path Comps
What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection
| Profile at Match Age | Next 3 Yrs | Career | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Comp | Age | Role | FIP | K% | BB% | HR/BF | BABIP | FIP | K% | K-BB% | IP | ΔFIP | Low FIP | IP | Match |
| Alan Rangel (OGILVIE) | — | — | 5.33 | 21.1% | 7.5% | 4.9% | — | 5.35 | 21.6% | 13.0% | 419 | +0.02 | — | — | — |
| Matt Cain R 2028 · 4.90 FIP | 30 | SP- | 4.90 | 17.1% | 6.8% | 4.3% | .296 | 4.88 | 15.2% | 7.6% | 214 | -0.02 | 4.83 | 294 | 68 |
| Connor Schultz R 2025 · 4.85 FIP | 27 | SP | 4.85 | 21.5% | 10.9% | 4.0% | .275 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.47 | 171 | 68 |
| Omar Bencomo R 2026 · 4.38 FIP | 28 | SP- | 4.38 | 18.9% | 6.3% | 3.8% | .333 | 4.43 | 14.9% | 10.1% | 186 | +0.05 | 3.67 | 381 | 66 |
| Alex Cobb R 2026 · 5.20 FIP | 28 | SP | 5.20 | 14.0% | 6.9% | 4.4% | .366 | 4.43 | 16.3% | 10.7% | 344 | -0.77 | 2.78 | 844 | 65 |
| Brady Rodgers R 2026 · 5.58 FIP | 28 | SP- | 5.58 | 14.7% | 9.0% | 4.7% | .270 | — | — | — | — | — | 1.98 | 354 | 65 |
| Cody Anderson R 2026 · 4.36 FIP | 28 | SP | 4.36 | 18.9% | 7.5% | 3.5% | .328 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.75 | 279 | 65 |
| Rorik Maltrud R 2024 · 4.15 FIP | 26 | SP | 4.15 | 18.9% | 7.9% | 3.0% | .283 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.87 | 247 | 64 |
| Kohei Arihara R 2026 · 6.20 FIP | 28 | SP | 6.20 | 13.5% | 7.3% | 6.0% | .262 | 4.67 | 16.4% | 9.2% | 94 | -1.53 | 4.67 | 135 | 64 |
| Kris Medlen R 2027 · 4.77 FIP | 29 | SP- | 4.77 | 15.4% | 6.4% | 4.0% | .261 | 5.16 | 17.1% | 8.6% | 173 | +0.39 | 4.66 | 261 | 63 |
| Andrew Triggs R 2026 · 4.29 FIP | 28 | SP | 4.29 | 17.7% | 6.7% | 3.3% | .288 | 4.57 | 23.6% | 13.7% | 41 | +0.28 | 1.66 | 242 | 63 |
| Mason Adams R 2024 · 4.23 FIP | 26 | SP | 4.23 | 21.6% | 9.3% | 3.2% | .323 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.84 | 254 | 63 |
| Michael Baird R 2025 · 6.05 FIP | 27 | SP- | 6.05 | 20.9% | 7.4% | 6.9% | .263 | — | — | — | — | — | 2.90 | 132 | 63 |
| Hector Noesí R 2026 · 4.21 FIP | 28 | SP- | 4.21 | 17.6% | 8.1% | 2.9% | .261 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.21 | 250 | 62 |
| Dylan Cumming R 2025 · 4.71 FIP | 27 | SP | 4.71 | 16.4% | 7.6% | 3.7% | .306 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.69 | 366 | 62 |
| Austin Voth R 2026 · 5.76 FIP | 28 | SP | 5.76 | 19.6% | 7.1% | 6.2% | .285 | 4.10 | 21.7% | 13.4% | 209 | -1.66 | 3.43 | 1,132 | 62 |
| Akeel Morris R 2026 · 5.26 FIP | 28 | SP | 5.26 | 21.5% | 7.8% | 5.4% | .319 | — | — | — | — | — | 2.94 | 305 | 62 |
| Shumpei Yoshikawa R 2024 · 6.45 FIP | 26 | SP | 6.45 | 25.7% | 10.6% | 7.6% | .289 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.69 | 124 | 62 |
| Nick Tepesch R 2026 · 5.57 FIP | 28 | SP | 5.57 | 16.0% | 6.2% | 5.5% | .294 | 5.38 | 10.1% | 2.1% | 97 | -0.19 | 3.70 | 276 | 61 |
| Xzavion Curry R 2026 · 5.61 FIP | 28 | SP | 5.61 | 13.5% | 6.0% | 5.3% | .284 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.19 | 513 | 61 |
| Sawyer Gipson-Long R 2026 · 4.14 FIP | 28 | SP | 4.14 | 19.1% | 9.4% | 2.7% | .289 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.07 | 470 | 61 |
Career Comps
Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 327 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).
| Player | Yrs | IP/yr | K% | BB% | HR/9 | ERA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION | 4 | 144 | 21.4% | 8.2% | 1.86 | 5.29 |
| Dan Straily ('19) | 4 | 136 | 20.0% | 8.9% | 1.72 | 4.54 |
| James Shields ('18) | 4 | 176 | 19.8% | 9.6% | 1.71 | 4.81 |
| Dylan Bundy ('22) | 7 | 130 | 22.0% | 7.3% | 1.61 | 4.75 |
| Aníbal Sánchez ('22) | 7 | 120 | 20.4% | 7.8% | 1.56 | 4.80 |
| Josiah Gray ('23) | 3 | 126 | 22.6% | 10.8% | 1.88 | 4.64 |
| Mike Foltynewicz ('21) | 6 | 134 | 21.4% | 7.7% | 1.46 | 4.45 |