Alan Rangel — OGILVIE

Alan Rangel P Lehigh Valley IronPigs

Age 28 RHP 6'2" / 170 lbs AAA ILReassigned to Minors (RM)

2026 ROS PROJECTION129 act + 13 ip · rates below = ROS only

showingROS

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 126118vR 110

ERA4.89

FIP4.89

K%19.7%

BB%7.2%

K-BB%12.5%

ROS IP13

Value2026 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 142 IP

Grades · Statcast · Arsenal · Contract

Scouting Grades

STUF5050

CTRL5555

CMD5555

K†5050

Statcast Percentiles

FB Velo

p2792.9

Whiff%

p4424.4%

p5823.6%

xwOBA vs

p440.318

FB+0.7 (34%)

SL (16%)

CU (12%)

CH (37%)

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2026 so far)
2015	17	ROK MLE	GCL Braves	14	1	26	116	23	9	3	7%	1.8	13.5%	9.7%	3.8%	3.6%	6.31	5.18	—
2015	17	ROK RAW	GCL Braves	14	1	26	116	23	9	3	7%	1.8	19.8%	7.8%	12.1%	2.6%	6.31	3.88	—
2016	18	ROK MLE	GCL Braves	12	9	47	189	47	10	2	75%	3.9	16.9%	6.6%	10.3%	1.5%	3.28	3.32	—
2016	18	ROK RAW	GCL Braves	12	9	47	189	47	10	2	75%	3.9	24.9%	5.3%	19.6%	1.1%	3.28	2.29	—
2017	19	A MLE	Rome Braves	15	13	71	299	48	14	5	87%	4.7	11.9%	5.5%	6.4%	2.9%	4.71	4.38	—
2017	19	A RAW	Rome Braves	15	13	71	299	48	14	5	87%	4.7	16.1%	4.7%	11.4%	1.7%	4.71	3.26	—
2018	20	A MLE	Rome Braves	25	22	125	533	105	31	12	88%	5.0	14.6%	6.9%	7.7%	3.3%	4.09	4.56	—
2018	20	A RAW	Rome Braves	25	22	125	533	105	31	12	88%	5.0	19.7%	5.8%	13.9%	2.3%	4.09	3.41	—
2019	21	A MLE	Rome Braves	28	24	132	581	121	46	10	86%	4.7	15.4%	9.3%	6.1%	2.6%	4.51	4.43	—
2019	21	A RAW	Rome Braves	28	24	132	581	121	46	10	86%	4.7	20.8%	7.9%	12.9%	1.7%	4.51	3.30	—
2021	23	MIX MLE	2 levels	22	21	105	425	136	26	11	95%	4.8	25.0%	7.0%	18.0%	3.7%	3.87	3.90	—
2021	23	MIX RAW	2 levels	22	21	105	425	136	26	11	95%	4.8	32.0%	6.1%	25.9%	2.6%	3.87	2.61	—
2022	24	MIX MLE	2 levels	27	27	118	526	144	52	15	100%	4.4	22.0%	10.8%	11.3%	3.8%	5.28	4.69	—
2022	24	MIX RAW	2 levels	27	27	118	526	144	52	15	100%	4.4	27.4%	9.9%	17.5%	2.9%	5.28	3.64	—
2023	25	MIX MLE	2 levels	26	25	127	548	140	50	18	96%	4.9	20.7%	9.7%	11.0%	4.8%	4.61	5.23	—
2023	25	MIX MLE	2 levels	26	25	127	548	140	50	18	96%	4.9	20.7%	9.7%	11.0%	4.8%	4.61	5.23	—
2023	25	MIX RAW	2 levels	26	25	127	548	140	50	18	96%	4.9	25.5%	9.1%	16.4%	3.3%	4.61	3.92	—
2024	26	MIX MLE	4 levels	18	13	57	227	62	14	6	72%	3.2	20.7%	6.4%	14.3%	3.5%	3.77	4.08	—
2024	26	MIX MLE	4 levels	18	13	57	227	62	14	6	72%	3.2	20.7%	6.4%	14.3%	3.5%	3.77	4.08	—
2024	26	MIX RAW	4 levels	18	13	57	227	62	14	6	72%	3.2	27.3%	6.2%	21.1%	2.6%	3.77	3.03	—
2025	27	MIX MLE	2 levels	30	25	136	576	139	46	30	83%	4.5	20.5%	6.8%	13.7%	6.4%	4.38	5.72	-1.2
2025	27	MIX MLE	2 levels	30	25	136	576	139	46	30	83%	4.5	20.5%	6.8%	13.7%	6.4%	4.38	5.72	-1.2
2025	27	MIX RAW	2 levels	30	25	136	576	139	46	30	83%	4.5	24.1%	8.0%	16.1%	5.2%	4.38	4.94	-0.1
▸ Career totals (raw MLB only — as recorded)
MLB Career	—			12	3	37	169	37	19	5	25%	3.1	21.9%	11.2%	10.7%	3.0%	4.86	4.40	+0.1
▸ 2026 season
YTD	28	MLB MLE	Philadelphia Phillies	28	21	129	574	126	56	24	75%	4.6	19.1%	9.0%	10.1%	4.5%	5.58	5.09	—
YTD	28	MLB MLE	Philadelphia Phillies	28	21	129	574	126	56	24	75%	4.6	19.1%	9.0%	10.1%	4.5%	5.58	5.09	—
▸ 2026 season — so far · projected rest · full
2026	28	AAA RAW	PHI	21	18	103	451	97	43	20	86%	4.9	21.5%	9.5%	12.0%	4.4%	5.50	4.93	—
2026	28	MLB RAW	PHI	7	3	26	123	29	13	4	43%	3.7	23.6%	10.6%	13.0%	3.3%	5.88	4.23	+0.1
SO FAR	28	MLB RAW	PHI	7	3	26	123	29	13	4	43%	3.7	23.6%	10.6%	13.0%	3.3%	5.88	4.23	+0.1
ROS	28	MLB MLE	PHI	2	2	13	55	11	4	3	100%	6.6	19.7%	7.2%	12.5%	4.6%	4.89	4.89	+0.0
ROS	28	MLB CTX	PHI	2	2	13	55	11	4	3	100%	6.5	19.7%	7.2%	12.5%	4.6%	4.89	4.89	+0.0
2026 TOT	28	MLB MLE	PHI	—	—	142	629	137	60	27	—	—	21.8%	9.5%	12.2%	4.2%	5.52	5.07	-0.3
FULL	28	MLB A+C	PHI	—	—	39	165	137	60	27	—	—	82.9%	36.3%	46.6%	16.1%	20.04	9.53	-0.2
▸ Career projection (2027+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2027	29	MLB MLE	PHI	25	25	149	628	131	49	28	100%	5.9	20.9%	7.9%	13.1%	4.4%	5.06	5.11	-0.4
2028	30	MLB MLE	PHI	23	23	140	590	122	48	26	100%	6.1	20.7%	8.2%	12.5%	4.5%	5.14	5.23	-0.5
2027	29	MLB CTX	PHI	24	24	141	595	125	47	26	100%	5.9	20.9%	7.9%	13.1%	4.4%	5.06	5.11	-0.3
2028	30	MLB CTX	PHI	22	22	133	562	116	46	25	100%	6.0	20.7%	8.2%	12.5%	4.5%	5.14	5.23	-0.5
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		60	51	324	1382	289	116	59	85%	5.4	20.9%	8.4%	12.5%	4.3%	5.06	4.73	+0.6
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		37	31	200	852	178	72	36	85%	5.4	20.9%	8.4%	12.5%	4.3%	5.06	4.73	+0.4
Career	—	MLE		245	201	1071	4594	861	376	181	82%	4.4	18.7%	8.2%	10.6%	3.9%	4.57	4.72	-0.7
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		46	38	200	858	161	70	34	82%	4.4	18.7%	8.2%	10.6%	3.9%	4.57	4.72	-0.4

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Alan Rangel (OGILVIE)	—	—	5.17	20.1%	6.6%	4.6%	—	5.17	20.8%	12.8%	288	-0.00	—	—	—
Matt Cain R 2015 · 4.88 FIP	30	SP-	4.88	17.1%	6.8%	4.3%	.296	4.87	15.2%	7.6%	214	-0.01	4.82	294	70
Fabio Castillo R 2017 · 3.98 FIP	28	SP-	3.98	20.9%	8.8%	2.8%	.291	—	—	—	—	—	3.13	195	68
Omar Bencomo R 2017 · 4.50 FIP	28	SP-	4.50	18.9%	6.3%	4.0%	.333	4.48	14.9%	10.1%	186	-0.02	3.70	381	68
Alex Cobb R 2016 · 5.26 FIP	28	SP	5.26	14.0%	6.9%	4.5%	.366	4.37	16.3%	10.7%	344	-0.89	2.74	844	68
Ariel Peña R 2017 · 3.99 FIP	28	SP	3.99	22.5%	12.0%	2.3%	.304	6.07	19.9%	-5.7%	21	+2.08	3.74	223	67
Brady Rodgers R 2019 · 5.44 FIP	28	SP-	5.44	14.7%	9.0%	4.4%	.270	—	—	—	—	—	1.98	354	67
Kohei Arihara R 2021 · 6.04 FIP	28	SP	6.04	13.5%	7.3%	5.8%	.262	4.58	16.4%	9.2%	94	-1.46	4.58	135	66
Cody Anderson R 2019 · 4.33 FIP	28	SP	4.33	18.9%	7.5%	3.4%	.328	—	—	—	—	—	3.69	279	66
Kris Medlen R 2015 · 4.82 FIP	29	SP-	4.82	15.4%	6.4%	4.0%	.261	5.17	17.1%	8.6%	173	+0.35	4.59	261	65
Andrew Triggs R 2017 · 4.38 FIP	28	SP	4.38	17.7%	6.7%	3.5%	.288	4.68	23.6%	13.7%	41	+0.30	1.66	242	65
Hector Noesí R 2015 · 4.37 FIP	28	SP-	4.37	17.6%	8.1%	3.2%	.261	—	—	—	—	—	4.37	250	65
Nick Tepesch R 2017 · 5.37 FIP	28	SP	5.37	16.0%	6.2%	5.2%	.294	5.56	10.1%	2.1%	97	+0.19	3.74	276	63
Rolando Valdez R 2015 · 4.07 FIP	29	SP	4.07	13.3%	5.9%	2.4%	.301	3.78	13.2%	7.9%	176	-0.29	3.06	258	63
Michael Baird R 2022 · 6.02 FIP	27	SP-	6.02	20.9%	7.4%	6.8%	.263	—	—	—	—	—	2.84	132	62
Bryan Evans R 2015 · 4.13 FIP	28	SP	4.13	17.8%	6.2%	3.2%	.250	4.60	19.7%	14.9%	132	+0.47	3.89	231	62
Akeel Morris R 2021 · 5.10 FIP	28	SP	5.10	21.5%	7.8%	5.1%	.319	—	—	—	—	—	3.00	305	62
Austin Voth R 2020 · 5.76 FIP	28	SP	5.76	19.6%	7.1%	6.2%	.285	4.18	21.6%	13.4%	209	-1.58	3.41	1,057	62
Yohan Pino R 2015 · 4.13 FIP	31	SP-	4.13	17.8%	5.8%	3.3%	.312	5.33	15.2%	11.6%	35	+1.20	4.13	133	61
Wirkin Estevez R 2018 · 4.68 FIP	26	SP	4.68	14.8%	7.3%	3.5%	.276	—	—	—	—	—	4.37	238	61
Vanny Valenzuela R 2016 · 4.54 FIP	28	SP	4.54	16.3%	11.3%	2.5%	.380	6.25	10.9%	1.2%	25	+1.71	3.26	118	61

Career Comps

Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 133 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	2.2	144	20.6%	7.5%	1.74	5.12
Dan Straily ('19)	2.7	136	20.0%	8.9%	1.72	4.54
Kutter Crawford ('24)	2.0	130	23.9%	7.2%	1.45	4.47
Mike Foltynewicz ('21)	4.0	134	21.4%	7.7%	1.46	4.45
Dylan Bundy ('22)	4.5	130	22.0%	7.3%	1.61	4.75
Josiah Gray ('23)	1.9	126	22.6%	10.8%	1.88	4.64
Homer Bailey ('19)	1.9	96	18.5%	7.8%	1.34	5.56