Denyi Reyes prospect projection, MLE, ETA

Denyi Reyes P Syracuse Mets

Age 29 RHP 6'4" / 255 lbs AAA

2026 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONpark-neutral Marcel · 76 proj IP

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 125117vR 109

ERA4.64

FIP4.86

K%18.3%

BB%8.2%

K-BB%10.0%

ROS IP76

Value2026 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 76 IP

Grades · Statcast · Arsenal · Contract

Scouting Grades

K†4545

Statcast Percentiles

FB Velo

p1291.8

Whiff%

p3723.4%

p2718.9%

xwOBA vs

p200.347

FB+1.4

CT-1.3

CH-3.9

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2026 so far)
2015	18	ROK MLE	DSL Red Sox 2	15	14	75	296	63	3	0	93%	5.0	14.5%	1.3%	13.2%	0.0%	2.88	2.04	—
2015	18	ROK RAW	DSL Red Sox 2	15	14	75	296	63	3	0	93%	5.0	21.3%	1.0%	20.3%	0.0%	2.88	1.54	—
2016	19	ROK MLE	GCL Red Sox	9	3	35	141	25	4	3	33%	3.9	12.1%	3.5%	8.5%	3.0%	2.34	4.17	—
2016	19	ROK RAW	GCL Red Sox	9	3	35	141	25	4	3	33%	3.9	17.7%	2.8%	14.9%	2.1%	2.34	3.13	—
2018	21	MIX MLE	2 levels	27	24	156	609	145	19	13	89%	5.8	17.7%	3.7%	14.1%	3.0%	1.97	3.70	—
2018	21	MIX RAW	2 levels	27	24	156	609	145	19	13	89%	5.8	23.8%	3.1%	20.7%	2.1%	1.97	2.69	—
2019	22	AA MLE	Portland Sea Dogs	26	26	151	629	116	37	14	100%	5.8	14.9%	6.5%	8.5%	2.8%	4.16	4.20	—
2019	22	AA RAW	Portland Sea Dogs	26	26	151	629	116	37	14	100%	5.8	18.4%	5.9%	12.6%	2.2%	4.16	3.50	—
2021	24	AA MLE	Portland Sea Dogs	20	5	58	247	63	10	10	25%	2.9	20.7%	4.5%	16.2%	5.4%	4.21	4.88	—
2021	24	AA RAW	Portland Sea Dogs	20	5	58	247	63	10	10	25%	2.9	25.5%	4.0%	21.5%	4.0%	4.21	3.69	—
2022	25	MIX MLE	4 levels	20	13	68	299	64	10	13	65%	3.4	19.3%	3.4%	15.9%	6.0%	6.12	5.19	-0.2
2022	25	MIX RAW	4 levels	20	13	68	299	64	10	13	65%	3.4	21.4%	3.3%	18.1%	4.3%	6.12	4.15	+0.6
2023	26	MIX MLE	2 levels	29	21	111	493	89	41	27	72%	3.8	16.0%	7.6%	8.4%	6.0%	6.14	5.98	-1.3
2023	26	MIX MLE	2 levels	29	21	111	493	89	41	27	72%	3.8	16.0%	7.6%	8.4%	6.0%	6.14	5.98	-1.3
2023	26	MIX RAW	2 levels	29	21	111	493	89	41	27	72%	3.8	18.1%	8.3%	9.7%	5.5%	6.14	5.76	-1.1
▸ Career totals (raw MLB only — as recorded)
MLB Career	—			12	4	27	121	20	9	3	33%	2.3	16.5%	7.4%	9.1%	2.5%	6.26	4.05	+0.2
▸ 2026 season — projected remainder (no 2026 stats recorded)
2026	29	MLB	NYM	—	—	0	—	—	—	—	—	—	18.3%	8.2%	10.0%	3.4%	4.64	4.86	—
▸ Career projection (2027+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2027	30	MLB MLE	NYM	12	12	72	303	55	26	11	100%	6.0	18.1%	8.6%	9.4%	3.6%	4.84	5.01	-0.1
2028	31	MLB MLE	NYM	11	11	67	283	50	26	11	100%	6.1	17.7%	9.0%	8.7%	3.8%	5.03	5.19	-0.2
2027	30	MLB CTX	NYM	4	4	26	110	20	9	4	100%	6.5	18.1%	8.6%	9.4%	3.6%	4.84	5.01	-0.0
2028	31	MLB CTX	NYM	6	6	37	156	28	14	6	100%	6.2	17.7%	9.0%	8.7%	3.8%	5.03	5.19	-0.1
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		22	14	91	388	68	33	13	64%	4.1	17.5%	8.4%	9.0%	3.3%	5.34	4.51	+0.4
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		49	31	200	857	150	73	29	64%	4.1	17.5%	8.4%	9.0%	3.3%	5.34	4.51	+0.9
Career	—	MLE		146	106	653	2714	449	131	101	73%	4.5	16.6%	4.8%	11.8%	3.7%	3.94	4.35	-0.0
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		45	32	200	831	138	40	31	73%	4.5	16.6%	4.8%	11.8%	3.7%	3.94	4.35	-0.1

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Denyi Reyes (OGILVIE)	—	—	4.86	18.3%	8.2%	3.4%	—	5.10	17.9%	9.1%	139	+0.24	—	—	—
Austin Bibens-Dirkx R 2015 · 3.97 FIP	30	SP	3.97	17.4%	7.1%	2.6%	.315	4.94	15.9%	8.7%	305	+0.97	3.97	567	77
Fabio Castillo R 2017 · 3.98 FIP	28	SP-	3.98	20.9%	8.8%	2.8%	.291	—	—	—	—	—	3.13	195	76
Shawn Haviland R 2015 · 3.95 FIP	29	SP-	3.95	14.6%	6.0%	2.4%	.303	4.67	16.1%	8.8%	169	+0.72	3.69	283	75
Zack Segovia R 2015 · 4.78 FIP	32	SP	4.78	15.0%	8.3%	3.4%	.314	3.33	20.2%	14.3%	39	-1.45	3.33	144	74
Travis Smith R 2002 · 5.28 FIP	29	SP	5.28	13.1%	8.2%	4.1%	.324	5.71	15.0%	9.0%	51	+0.43	3.67	105	74
Tim Adleman R 2017 · 5.35 FIP	29	SP-	5.35	20.3%	9.4%	5.1%	.276	4.30	22.8%	15.0%	117	-1.05	3.63	605	73
Hisashi Iwakuma R 2012 · 4.28 FIP	31	SP-	4.28	19.5%	7.7%	3.4%	.277	3.45	21.5%	17.8%	528	-0.83	3.19	884	71
Luke Irvine R 2016 · 4.31 FIP	27	SP-	4.31	13.4%	9.8%	2.0%	.302	—	—	—	—	—	4.31	104	71
Travis Driskill R 2002 · 4.95 FIP	30	SP-	4.95	13.2%	8.0%	3.6%	.291	4.26	15.3%	12.0%	48	-0.69	4.26	181	70
Kohei Arihara R 2022 · 4.58 FIP	29	SP-	4.58	16.4%	7.2%	3.5%	.333	—	—	—	—	—	4.58	135	70
Scott McGregor R 2015 · 4.37 FIP	28	SP-	4.37	11.8%	7.6%	2.4%	.293	—	—	—	—	—	4.37	107	69
Andres Ivan Meza R 2015 · 4.45 FIP	28	SP	4.45	10.9%	5.6%	2.9%	.322	4.14	12.5%	4.0%	85	-0.31	4.14	275	69
Kyle Friedrichs R 2021 · 4.73 FIP	29	SP-	4.73	13.9%	6.2%	3.7%	.286	—	—	—	—	—	3.53	603	69
David Griffin R 2023 · 5.83 FIP	27	SP-	5.83	14.2%	9.2%	5.0%	.306	—	—	—	—	—	4.43	239	68
Juan Delgadillo R 2015 · 4.54 FIP	32	SP	4.54	15.5%	7.2%	3.3%	.316	4.47	10.9%	4.7%	39	-0.07	4.47	143	68
Ariel Peña R 2017 · 3.99 FIP	28	SP	3.99	22.5%	12.0%	2.3%	.304	6.07	19.9%	-5.7%	21	+2.08	3.74	223	68
Frank Batista R 2015 · 4.29 FIP	26	SP-	4.29	12.1%	8.2%	2.1%	.280	—	—	—	—	—	4.29	118	67
Aaron Brooks R 2019 · 4.72 FIP	29	SP-	4.72	17.0%	7.1%	3.9%	.281	4.38	15.8%	8.8%	70	-0.34	3.71	879	67
Scott Carroll R 2014 · 4.35 FIP	29	SP-	4.35	11.2%	7.7%	2.2%	.296	4.52	11.9%	3.7%	248	+0.17	3.92	377	67
Kenneth Sigman R 2019 · 4.05 FIP	29	SP-	4.05	13.9%	7.7%	2.1%	.348	—	—	—	—	—	3.56	267	67

Career Comps

Completed MLB careers (no pro action in 2+ yrs) whose totals — actual + projected — most resemble this player's. Pool: 714 reliever careers (1990-2024).

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	1.2	81	17.9%	8.5%	1.34	4.99
Joe Biagini ('21)	1.7	83	19.0%	7.9%	1.28	5.03
Jose Cabrera ('02)	1.4	68	16.2%	7.9%	1.39	4.95
Carlos Almánzar ('05)	1.2	60	16.3%	7.9%	1.32	4.82
Blas Minor ('97)	1.1	75	19.2%	7.3%	1.16	4.40
Ricky Stone ('07)	1.3	64	15.2%	8.0%	1.55	4.68
Esteban Yan ('06)	3.5	77	17.9%	8.7%	1.36	5.14