Jorge Guzmán
P
Sacramento River Cats
+0.2
WAR
Age 30
RHP
6'1" / 246 lbs
AAA
peak 0.2 · 2026
ERA4.47
FIP4.47
xFIP12.49
SIERA10.69
K%22.4%
BB%10.1%
K-BB%12.3%
IP30
trajectory · 10 yrs
0.2peak
2026
K†5555
CH-0.8
FB-1.4
Career (MLE) + Projections
Park-neutral MLB-equivalent. MiLB translated via MLE factors. FIP-based WAR vs replacement FIP=5.3 (SP) / 4.95 (RP, <80 IP). FIP+ = runs above league-avg FIP · REP = replacement-level bonus.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | G | GS | IP | BF | K | BB | HR | K% | BB% | HR% | ERA | FIP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2015 | 19 | ROK | GCL Astros | 17 | 12 | 55 | 269 | 29 | 30 | 2 | 7.3% | 13.9% | 1.0% | 5.04 | 4.82 | +0.1 |
| 2016 | 20 | ROK | Greeneville Astros | 13 | 8 | 40 | 168 | 54 | 17 | 1 | 21.9% | 12.6% | 0.8% | 4.05 | 3.31 | +0.7 |
| 2018 | 22 | A+ | Jupiter Hammerheads | 21 | 21 | 96 | 430 | 101 | 64 | 7 | 18.1% | 17.1% | 2.4% | 4.03 | 5.06 | +0.2 |
| 2019 | 23 | AA | Jacksonville Jumbo Shrimp | 25 | 24 | 139 | 562 | 127 | 71 | 13 | 18.3% | 13.9% | 3.1% | 3.50 | 5.00 | +0.5 |
| 2020 | 24 | MLB | Miami Marlins | 1 | 0 | 1 | 7 | 0 | 1 | 2 | — | — | — | 18.00 | — | — |
| 2021 | 25 | MLB | Miami Marlins | 11 | 0 | 17 | 85 | 23 | 14 | 1 | 25.1% | 13.5% | 1.8% | 6.35 | 3.67 | +0.2 |
| 2022 | 26 | AA | Richmond Flying Squirrels | 16 | 0 | 17 | 80 | 24 | 11 | 2 | — | — | — | 3.63 | — | — |
| 2023 | 27 | AAA | Sacramento River Cats | 27 | 0 | 36 | 161 | 26 | 26 | 2 | 14.2% | 17.0% | 1.3% | 3.00 | 4.76 | +0.1 |
| ▸ 2026 Season | ||||||||||||||||
| 2026 | 30 | MLB | MIA | 30 | — | 30 | 125 | 28 | 13 | 4 | 22.4% | 10.1% | 2.9% | 4.47 | 4.47 | +0.2 |
| ▸ 2027+ Projections — Marcel base + age-bracket aging | ||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 31 | MLB | MIA | 29 | — | 29 | 121 | 27 | 12 | 4 | 22.2% | 10.2% | 3.0% | 4.50 | 4.53 | +0.1 |
| ▸ Career (all levels · actual + projected) | ||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | 131 | 65 | 401 | 1762 | 305 | 261 | 39 | 17.3% | 14.8% | 2.2% | 4.01 | 4.74 | +2.5 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 65 | 32 | 200 | 878 | 152 | 130 | 19 | 17.3% | 14.8% | 2.2% | 4.01 | 4.74 | +1.3 | ||
Career Path Comps
What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection
| Profile at Match Age | Next 3 Yrs | Career | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Comp | Age | Role | FIP | K% | BB% | HR/BF | BABIP | FIP | K% | K-BB% | IP | ΔFIP | Low FIP | IP | Match |
| Jorge Guzmán (OGILVIE) | — | — | 4.47 | 22.4% | 10.1% | 2.9% | — | 4.53 | 22.2% | 12.1% | 29 | +0.06 | — | — | — |
| Fernando Nieve R 2029 · 4.26 FIP | 33 | SU | 4.26 | 22.0% | 10.5% | 3.1% | .290 | 2.44 | 26.9% | 22.6% | 89 | -1.82 | 1.94 | 112 | 87 |
| Wirfin Obispo R 2026 · 4.83 FIP | 30 | SU | 4.83 | 18.6% | 12.2% | 3.2% | .292 | 1.31 | 28.6% | 24.5% | 126 | -3.52 | 1.30 | 218 | 81 |
| David Hernandez R 2026 · 4.62 FIP | 30 | SU | 4.62 | 22.9% | 7.6% | 4.5% | .287 | 3.18 | 24.9% | 18.4% | 192 | -1.44 | 2.56 | 268 | 80 |
| Brian Schlitter R 2026 · 3.31 FIP | 30 | SU | 3.31 | 20.6% | 10.8% | 1.1% | .333 | 3.78 | 14.4% | 6.6% | 110 | +0.47 | 3.31 | 244 | 79 |
| Ryan Cook R 2027 · 3.85 FIP | 31 | SW | 3.85 | 25.1% | 10.8% | 2.7% | .280 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.85 | 102 | 79 |
| Esteban Haro R 2026 · 4.58 FIP | 30 | SU | 4.58 | 17.1% | 10.2% | 3.0% | .338 | 3.79 | 11.6% | 6.3% | 75 | -0.79 | 3.73 | 164 | 79 |
| Hirokazu Sawamura R 2029 · 4.47 FIP | 33 | SW | 4.47 | 26.2% | 11.2% | 3.9% | .263 | 3.98 | 18.1% | 6.8% | 51 | -0.49 | 3.98 | 104 | 78 |
| Dustin Molleken R 2026 · 3.72 FIP | 30 | SW | 3.72 | 20.4% | 11.7% | 1.6% | .287 | 3.88 | 20.6% | 8.4% | 77 | +0.16 | 3.38 | 129 | 78 |
| Javy Guerra R 2026 · 4.30 FIP | 30 | SW | 4.30 | 21.3% | 13.9% | 2.3% | .303 | 3.87 | 19.5% | 13.0% | 193 | -0.43 | 3.01 | 260 | 78 |
| Logan Kensing R 2029 · 3.61 FIP | 33 | SU | 3.61 | 17.6% | 8.8% | 1.6% | .270 | 3.06 | 17.9% | 10.0% | 124 | -0.55 | 2.72 | 172 | 78 |
| Michael Mariot R 2026 · 5.10 FIP | 30 | SU | 5.10 | 19.8% | 11.1% | 4.1% | .333 | 5.03 | 15.8% | 7.4% | 182 | -0.07 | 2.39 | 676 | 77 |
| Jonathan Broxton R 2027 · 3.73 FIP | 31 | SW | 3.73 | 24.5% | 8.2% | 3.0% | .325 | 3.80 | 21.7% | 13.5% | 76 | +0.07 | 3.65 | 137 | 77 |
| Carlos Fisher R 2028 · 3.45 FIP | 32 | SW | 3.45 | 22.6% | 11.6% | 1.4% | .236 | 3.18 | 22.5% | 11.1% | 91 | -0.27 | 2.48 | 147 | 77 |
| Erik Davis R 2026 · 4.24 FIP | 30 | SW | 4.24 | 22.2% | 11.1% | 2.9% | .349 | 3.54 | 17.4% | 8.5% | 65 | -0.70 | 3.05 | 227 | 76 |
| Kevin Jepsen R 2027 · 3.46 FIP | 31 | SW | 3.46 | 20.7% | 9.1% | 1.7% | .241 | 5.68 | 16.9% | 7.2% | 90 | +2.22 | 3.46 | 160 | 76 |
| Ross Ohlendorf R 2028 · 3.33 FIP | 32 | SW | 3.33 | 23.7% | 7.2% | 2.4% | .342 | 4.98 | 23.4% | 12.7% | 66 | +1.65 | 3.33 | 122 | 76 |
| Adam Warren R 2026 · 3.56 FIP | 30 | SW | 3.56 | 23.3% | 8.5% | 2.5% | .288 | 4.73 | 20.6% | 9.9% | 86 | +1.17 | 2.72 | 392 | 76 |
| Danny Farquhar R 2026 · 3.62 FIP | 30 | SW | 3.62 | 22.3% | 11.0% | 1.8% | .247 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.62 | 224 | 75 |
| Jhan Mariñez R 2025 · 4.10 FIP | 29 | SU | 4.10 | 21.2% | 7.9% | 3.2% | .331 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.18 | 253 | 75 |
| Andrew Robinson R 2025 · 4.33 FIP | 29 | SU | 4.33 | 23.4% | 8.8% | 3.8% | .245 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.25 | 160 | 75 |
Contract
No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.