Junior Fernández

P Nashville Sounds

Age 30 RHP 6'3" / 215 lbs AAA peak 0.3 · 2027

Overview

AAARP

Year	Age	Lvl / Team	G	IP	ERA	FIP	K%	BB%	WAR	MLE rates
2025	28	AAANYM	35	43	4.40	2.94	29.5%	14.0%	—	K 25.4% · BB 12.6% · FIP 3.09
2026	29	AAAMIL	26	31	4.65	4.00	20.6%	11.0%	—	K 17.7% · BB 9.9% · FIP 4.19
2027PROJ	30	MLBMIL	135	142	4.47	4.17	25.5%	11.4%	0.6
2028PROJ37% MLB	31	MLBMIL	47	49	4.44	4.41	24.4%	11.4%	0.1
2029PROJ55% MLB	32	MLBMIL	65	68	4.56	4.65	23.4%	11.5%	-0.1

Next 3 projected WAR 0.6Projected rows: MLB playing time only, park and league context applied.

Contract

No contract data on file.

Skills · percentileStatcast 2022

FB Velo90

Whiff%59

xwOBA vs56

K%12

CompsGregory Infante (age 30) · Fernando Rodriguez Jr. (age 31) · Spencer Bivens (age 30)

2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONrates below = full-season projection

showingPROJ

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 112104vR 96

ERA4.47

FIP4.17

K%25.5%

BB%11.4%

K-BB%14.1%

Proj IP142

Value2027 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 142 IP

Grades · Statcast · Arsenal · Contract

Scouting Grades

STUF6060

CTRL3535

CMD5050

K†6060

Statcast Percentiles

FB Velo

p9098.8

Whiff%

p5926.7%

p1216.7%

xwOBA vs

p560.306

FB+0.5

SL-1.9

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2027 so far)
2015	18	MIX MLE	2 levels	13	10	58	247	63	17	0	77%	4.4	18.0%	8.6%	9.4%	0.0%	3.59	2.66	—
2015	18	MIX RAW	2 levels	13	10	58	247	63	17	0	77%	4.4	25.5%	6.9%	18.6%	0.0%	3.59	1.80	—
2016	19	MIX MLE	2 levels	24	20	122	535	88	54	7	83%	5.1	12.3%	11.8%	0.5%	1.6%	4.06	4.45	—
2016	19	MIX RAW	2 levels	24	20	122	535	88	54	7	83%	5.1	16.4%	10.1%	6.4%	1.3%	4.06	3.73	—
2017	20	A+ MLE	Palm Beach Cardinals	16	16	90	383	58	38	5	100%	5.6	11.7%	11.4%	0.3%	2.0%	3.69	4.65	—
2017	20	A+ RAW	Palm Beach Cardinals	16	16	90	383	58	38	5	100%	5.6	15.1%	9.9%	5.2%	1.3%	3.69	3.80	—
2018	21	MIX MLE	2 levels	24	0	31	134	24	16	1	0%	1.3	14.5%	16.2%	-1.7%	1.0%	3.52	4.50	—
2018	21	MIX RAW	2 levels	24	0	31	134	24	16	1	0%	1.3	17.9%	11.9%	6.0%	0.7%	3.52	3.52	—
2019	22	MIX MLE	4 levels	58	0	77	322	96	35	2	0%	1.3	25.5%	11.7%	13.8%	0.7%	2.11	2.79	+1.6
2019	22	MIX RAW	4 levels	58	0	77	322	96	35	2	0%	1.3	29.8%	10.9%	18.9%	0.6%	2.11	2.30	+2.1
2020	23	MLB MLE	St. Louis Cardinals	3	0	3	16	2	2	1	0%	1.0	12.5%	12.5%	0.0%	6.2%	18.00	7.06	-0.1
2020	23	MLB RAW	St. Louis Cardinals	3	0	3	16	2	2	1	0%	1.0	12.5%	12.5%	0.0%	6.2%	18.00	8.10	-0.1
2021	24	MIX MLE	2 levels	31	0	35	163	37	19	5	0%	1.1	21.1%	11.8%	9.3%	3.5%	5.91	4.71	-0.1
2021	24	MIX RAW	2 levels	31	0	35	163	37	19	5	0%	1.1	22.7%	11.7%	11.0%	3.1%	5.91	4.47	+0.0
2022	25	MIX MLE	2 levels	57	0	63	287	65	34	7	0%	1.1	20.5%	12.2%	8.3%	2.6%	4.14	4.37	+0.1
2022	25	MIX RAW	2 levels	57	0	63	287	65	34	7	0%	1.1	22.6%	11.8%	10.8%	2.4%	4.14	4.10	+0.3
2023	26	AAA MLE	Rochester Red Wings	51	0	59	275	52	32	10	0%	1.2	16.3%	10.5%	5.8%	3.8%	5.22	5.13	—
2023	26	AAA RAW	Rochester Red Wings	51	0	59	275	52	32	10	0%	1.2	18.9%	11.6%	7.3%	3.6%	5.22	5.18	—
2025	28	AAA MLE	Syracuse Mets	35	0	43	193	57	27	2	0%	1.2	25.4%	12.6%	12.8%	1.0%	4.40	3.09	—
2025	28	AAA MLE	Syracuse Mets	35	0	43	193	57	27	2	0%	1.2	25.4%	12.6%	12.8%	1.0%	4.40	3.09	—
2025	28	AAA RAW	Syracuse Mets	35	0	43	193	57	27	2	0%	1.2	29.5%	14.0%	15.5%	1.0%	4.40	2.94	—
2026	29	AAA MLE	Nashville Sounds	26	0	31	136	28	15	3	0%	1.2	17.7%	9.9%	7.8%	2.4%	4.65	4.19	—
2026	29	AAA MLE	Nashville Sounds	26	0	31	136	28	15	3	0%	1.2	17.7%	9.9%	7.8%	2.4%	4.65	4.19	—
2026	29	AAA RAW	Nashville Sounds	26	0	31	136	28	15	3	0%	1.2	20.6%	11.0%	9.6%	2.2%	4.65	4.00	—
▸ Career totals (raw MLB only — as recorded)
MLB Career	—			50	0	54	251	47	34	8	0%	1.1	18.7%	13.5%	5.2%	3.2%	5.17	5.17	-0.4
▸ 2027 season — projected remainder (no 2027 stats recorded)
2027	30	MLB	MIL	135	0	142	600	153	68	15	0%	1.1	25.5%	11.4%	14.1%	2.5%	4.47	4.17	+0.6
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2028	31	MLB MLE	MIL	126	0	132	559	136	64	16	0%	1.1	24.4%	11.4%	13.0%	2.8%	4.44	4.41	+0.2
2029	32	MLB MLE	MIL	117	0	122	517	121	60	16	0%	1.0	23.4%	11.5%	11.9%	3.1%	4.56	4.65	-0.1
2028	31	MLB CTX	MIL	47	0	49	207	50	24	6	0%	1.0	24.4%	11.4%	13.0%	2.8%	4.44	4.41	+0.1
2029	32	MLB CTX	MIL	65	0	68	287	67	33	9	0%	1.0	23.4%	11.5%	11.9%	3.1%	4.56	4.65	-0.1
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		161	0	170	742	164	90	23	0%	1.1	22.1%	12.2%	9.9%	3.0%	4.72	4.44	+0.2
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		189	0	200	871	193	106	27	0%	1.1	22.1%	12.2%	9.9%	3.0%	4.72	4.44	+0.2
Career	—	MLE		338	46	611	2691	470	310	50	14%	1.8	17.5%	11.5%	5.9%	1.8%	4.04	4.10	-0.3
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		111	15	200	881	154	102	16	14%	1.8	17.5%	11.5%	5.9%	1.8%	4.04	4.10	-0.2

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Junior Fernández (OGILVIE)	—	—	4.17	25.5%	11.4%	2.5%	—	4.53	23.9%	12.5%	255	+0.36	—	—	—
Gregory Infante R 2017 · 2.97 FIP	30	SU	2.97	22.8%	8.2%	1.4%	.251	4.07	22.0%	17.4%	50	+1.10	2.97	230	65
Fernando Rodriguez Jr. R 2015 · 3.34 FIP	31	SU	3.34	26.5%	9.6%	2.3%	.241	3.89	23.3%	13.2%	105	+0.55	3.34	335	64
Spencer Bivens R 2024 · 4.07 FIP	30	SU	4.07	18.0%	5.8%	3.2%	.265	3.88	18.2%	10.9%	157	-0.19	3.52	391	64
Huascar Brazobán R 2022 · 3.77 FIP	32	SU	3.77	28.5%	11.4%	3.0%	.275	3.49	23.3%	12.9%	187	-0.28	3.08	370	64
Blake Smith R 2016 · 3.59 FIP	28	SU	3.59	22.4%	8.6%	2.4%	.307	—	—	—	—	—	3.17	124	63
Erik Davis R 2017 · 4.25 FIP	30	SU	4.25	22.2%	11.1%	3.0%	.349	3.52	17.4%	8.5%	65	-0.73	3.05	227	63
Junior Guerra R 2015 · 3.18 FIP	30	SW	3.18	26.8%	10.3%	1.9%	.269	4.15	20.8%	10.9%	390	+0.97	3.18	646	62
Hirokazu Sawamura R 2021 · 4.48 FIP	33	SU	4.48	26.2%	11.2%	4.0%	.263	4.02	18.1%	6.8%	51	-0.46	4.02	104	62
Blake Wood R 2016 · 3.76 FIP	30	SU	3.76	24.5%	10.6%	2.5%	.307	3.44	25.3%	16.0%	74	-0.32	2.92	329	62
Dustin Molleken R 2015 · 3.74 FIP	30	SU	3.74	20.4%	11.7%	1.6%	.287	3.90	20.6%	8.4%	77	+0.16	3.38	129	61
Tom Wilhelmsen R 2014 · 3.45 FIP	30	SU	3.45	22.7%	9.5%	1.9%	.196	4.64	17.5%	7.8%	148	+1.19	2.72	398	60
Simon Castro R 2017 · 3.99 FIP	29	SU	3.99	28.3%	10.3%	3.6%	.256	—	—	—	—	—	3.01	185	60
Marcus Walden R 2019 · 3.37 FIP	30	SU	3.37	23.2%	9.5%	1.9%	.257	4.48	18.0%	9.3%	130	+1.11	3.05	479	60
Kazuhiro Sasaki R 2000 · 3.93 FIP	32	SU	3.93	29.4%	9.8%	3.8%	.212	2.88	24.9%	19.3%	161	-1.05	2.76	223	60
Jim Miller R 2012 · 4.56 FIP	30	SU	4.56	20.9%	11.8%	3.1%	.243	3.95	18.8%	14.7%	74	-0.61	3.95	140	59
Chad Fox R 2001 · 3.17 FIP	30	SU	3.17	27.9%	10.1%	2.1%	.221	3.70	23.2%	9.6%	43	+0.53	2.82	194	59
Jason Bulger R 2009 · 3.78 FIP	30	SU	3.78	26.0%	11.1%	2.7%	.247	4.36	22.5%	9.0%	24	+0.58	3.78	106	59
Joe Nelson R 2006 · 3.91 FIP	31	SU	3.91	22.8%	10.4%	2.6%	.258	4.05	23.4%	12.8%	94	+0.14	3.08	139	59
Kaleb Ort R 2022 · 3.25 FIP	30	SU	3.25	24.4%	9.9%	1.8%	.309	4.70	25.1%	14.5%	134	+1.45	1.75	423	59
Kevin Shackelford R 2017 · 3.17 FIP	28	SU	3.17	28.0%	9.1%	2.3%	.286	—	—	—	—	—	3.17	161	58

Career Comps

Completed MLB careers (no pro action in 2+ yrs) whose totals — actual + projected — most resemble this player's. Pool: 3,327 pitcher careers (1,251 from 1990-2025 + 2,076 historical, 1901-2023), also matched on career-to-date at the same age. * Historical (Lahman) careers: rates era-adjusted to 2001-24 league levels; WAR is an OGILVIE proxy.

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	2.3	113	23.7%	11.8%	1.10	4.57
Hy Vandenberg ('35-'45, -1 WAR*)	1.5	97	22.1%*	10.1%*	1.18*	4.99*
Lou Kretlow ('46-'56, -2 WAR*)	3.9	87	23.6%*	12.1%*	1.05*	5.18*
Jim Lindsey ('22-'37, 0 WAR*)	2.2	86	22.0%*	10.3%*	1.04*	4.66*
Junior Guerra ('21)	2.5	85	21.2%	10.9%	1.17	4.06
Robert Person ('03)	4.5	128	19.8%	11.2%	1.29	4.64
Jake Faria ('23)	1.0	68	20.9%	10.3%	1.32	4.87