Marcus Walden
P
Tacoma Rainiers
Age 37
RHP
5'10" / 198 lbs
AAA
peak 0.1 · 2026
2026 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONpark-neutral Marcel · 121 proj IP
wRC+ AGAINSTvL 120111vR 102
ERA4.57
FIP4.46
K%22.4%
BB%10.1%
K-BB%12.3%
ROS IP122
Value2026 · WAR
Runs saved vs league avg · 121 IP
Grades · Statcast · Arsenal · Contract
Statcast Percentiles
FB Velo
p2192.4
Whiff%
p1018.4%
K%
p1014.1%
xwOBA vs
p100.479
SL-2.0
CT-3.3
FB-6.0
Contract
No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.
Career Stats + Projections
Viewactual = stats as recorded (seasons combined) + projected real-world MLB lines · MLE = level/park-neutral translations
Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed
Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | G | GS | IP | BF | K | BB | HR | GS% | IP/G | K% | BB% | K-BB% | HR% | ERA | FIP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2015 | 26 | AA | Pensacola Blue Wahoos | 1 | 1 | 3 | 16 | 2 | 3 | 0 | 100% | 3.0 | 12.5% | 18.8% | -6.2% | 0.0% | 12.00 | 4.42 | — |
| 2015 | 26 | AA | Pensacola Blue Wahoos | 1 | 1 | 3 | 16 | 2 | 3 | 0 | 100% | 3.0 | 12.5% | 18.8% | -6.2% | 0.0% | 12.00 | 4.77 | — |
| 2016 | 27 | MIX | 2 levels | 42 | 0 | 56 | 229 | 40 | 16 | 1 | 0% | 1.3 | 15.1% | 7.1% | 8.0% | 0.6% | 2.40 | 3.07 | — |
| 2016 | 27 | MIX | 2 levels | 42 | 0 | 56 | 229 | 40 | 16 | 1 | 0% | 1.3 | 17.5% | 7.0% | 10.5% | 0.4% | 2.40 | 2.76 | — |
| 2017 | 28 | AAA | Pawtucket Red Sox | 29 | 15 | 106 | 444 | 86 | 35 | 4 | 52% | 3.6 | 17.0% | 8.3% | 8.8% | 0.8% | 3.92 | 3.16 | — |
| 2017 | 28 | AAA | Pawtucket Red Sox | 29 | 15 | 106 | 444 | 86 | 35 | 4 | 52% | 3.6 | 19.4% | 7.9% | 11.5% | 0.9% | 3.92 | 2.96 | — |
| 2018 | 29 | MIX | 2 levels | 26 | 5 | 47 | 219 | 38 | 19 | 2 | 19% | 1.8 | 16.0% | 9.0% | 7.0% | 0.6% | 4.56 | 3.22 | +0.7 |
| 2018 | 29 | MIX | 2 levels | 26 | 5 | 47 | 219 | 38 | 19 | 2 | 19% | 1.8 | 17.4% | 8.7% | 8.7% | 0.9% | 4.56 | 3.25 | +0.7 |
| 2019 | 30 | MIX | 2 levels | 71 | 0 | 80 | 333 | 78 | 31 | 6 | 0% | 1.1 | 23.2% | 9.5% | 13.8% | 1.8% | 3.73 | 3.34 | +1.5 |
| 2019 | 30 | MIX | 2 levels | 71 | 0 | 80 | 333 | 78 | 31 | 6 | 0% | 1.1 | 23.4% | 9.3% | 14.1% | 1.8% | 3.73 | 3.29 | +1.6 |
| 2020 | 31 | MLB | Boston Red Sox | 15 | 0 | 13 | 71 | 10 | 9 | 5 | 0% | 0.9 | 14.1% | 12.7% | 1.4% | 7.0% | 9.45 | 7.34 | -0.4 |
| 2020 | 31 | MLB | Boston Red Sox | 15 | 0 | 13 | 71 | 10 | 9 | 5 | 0% | 0.9 | 14.1% | 12.7% | 1.4% | 7.0% | 9.45 | 8.50 | -0.6 |
| 2021 | 32 | AAA | Iowa Cubs | 38 | 3 | 57 | 264 | 58 | 22 | 9 | 8% | 1.5 | 19.3% | 8.8% | 10.6% | 3.2% | 4.87 | 4.35 | — |
| 2021 | 32 | AAA | Iowa Cubs | 38 | 3 | 57 | 264 | 58 | 22 | 9 | 8% | 1.5 | 22.0% | 8.3% | 13.6% | 3.4% | 4.87 | 4.27 | — |
| 2022 | 33 | AAA | Nashville Sounds | 16 | 9 | 60 | 260 | 52 | 19 | 5 | 56% | 3.7 | 17.6% | 7.7% | 9.9% | 2.4% | 4.53 | 3.89 | — |
| 2022 | 33 | AAA | Nashville Sounds | 16 | 9 | 60 | 260 | 52 | 19 | 5 | 56% | 3.7 | 20.0% | 7.3% | 12.7% | 1.9% | 4.53 | 3.40 | — |
| 2023 | 34 | AAA | Tacoma Rainiers | 17 | 14 | 72 | 325 | 50 | 35 | 11 | 82% | 4.2 | 13.5% | 11.3% | 2.2% | 2.8% | 5.65 | 4.94 | — |
| 2023 | 34 | AAA | Tacoma Rainiers | 17 | 14 | 72 | 325 | 50 | 35 | 11 | 82% | 4.2 | 15.4% | 10.8% | 4.6% | 3.4% | 5.65 | 5.17 | — |
| ▸ 2026 Season | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2026 | 37 | MLB | SEA | 120 | 0 | 126 | 531 | 119 | 54 | 15 | 0% | 1.0 | 22.4% | 10.1% | 12.3% | 2.9% | 4.57 | 4.46 | +1.4 |
| ▸ 2027+ Projections WITH CONTEXT · MLB TIME ONLY ⓘ | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 38 | MLB | SEA | 103 | 0 | 108 | 456 | 97 | 49 | 15 | 0% | 1.0 | 21.3% | 10.8% | 10.5% | 3.3% | 4.76 | 4.89 | +0.6 |
| 2028 | 39 | MLB | SEA | 89 | 0 | 93 | 393 | 79 | 45 | 15 | 0% | 1.0 | 20.1% | 11.5% | 8.6% | 3.8% | 5.10 | 5.32 | -0.1 |
| 2029 | 40 | MLB | SEA | 76 | 0 | 80 | 338 | 71 | 39 | 14 | 0% | 1.1 | 21.0% | 11.4% | 9.6% | 4.2% | 5.33 | 5.48 | -0.5 |
| 2027 | 38 | MLB | SEA | — | — | 0 | — | — | — | — | — | — | 21.3% | 10.8% | 10.5% | 3.3% | 4.76 | 4.89 | — |
| 2028 | 39 | MLB | SEA | — | — | 0 | — | — | — | — | — | — | 20.1% | 11.5% | 8.6% | 3.8% | 5.10 | 5.32 | — |
| 2029 | 40 | MLB | SEA | — | — | 0 | — | — | — | — | — | — | 21.0% | 11.4% | 9.6% | 4.2% | 5.33 | 5.48 | — |
| ▸ Career (MLB actual + context projections) | |||||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | 93 | 0 | 106 | 457 | 100 | 43 | 11 | 0% | 1.1 | 21.9% | 9.4% | 12.5% | 2.4% | 4.50 | 3.77 | +2.0 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 175 | 0 | 200 | 862 | 189 | 81 | 21 | 0% | 1.1 | 21.9% | 9.4% | 12.5% | 2.4% | 4.50 | 3.77 | +3.8 | ||
| Career | — | 255 | 47 | 494 | 2161 | 376 | 196 | 41 | 18% | 1.9 | 17.4% | 9.1% | 8.3% | 1.9% | 4.41 | 3.83 | +9.1 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 103 | 19 | 200 | 875 | 152 | 79 | 17 | 18% | 1.9 | 17.4% | 9.1% | 8.3% | 1.9% | 4.41 | 3.83 | +3.7 | ||
Career Path Comps
What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection
| Profile at Match Age | Next 3 Yrs | Career | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Comp | Age | Role | FIP | K% | BB% | HR/BF | BABIP | FIP | K% | K-BB% | IP | ΔFIP | Low FIP | IP | Match |
| Marcus Walden (OGILVIE) | — | — | 4.46 | 22.4% | 10.1% | 2.9% | — | 5.20 | 20.8% | 9.6% | 281 | +0.74 | — | — | — |
| Jean Machi R 2024 · 3.92 FIP | 35 | SU | 3.92 | 18.6% | 6.6% | 2.8% | .285 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.92 | 186 | 74 |
| Fernando Rodney R 2027 · 4.26 FIP | 38 | SU | 4.26 | 20.9% | 9.4% | 3.2% | .272 | 3.34 | 26.2% | 15.2% | 185 | -0.92 | 2.67 | 295 | 71 |
| Francisco Del Rosario R 2025 · 4.09 FIP | 36 | SU | 4.09 | 16.4% | 10.0% | 2.0% | .267 | 6.61 | 11.9% | -0.6% | 77 | +2.52 | 4.09 | 145 | 71 |
| Dustin McGowan R 2024 · 4.59 FIP | 35 | SU | 4.59 | 19.4% | 6.7% | 4.2% | .277 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.83 | 208 | 70 |
| Santiago Casilla R 2026 · 4.04 FIP | 37 | SU | 4.04 | 22.0% | 8.1% | 3.2% | .289 | 4.08 | 16.8% | 1.6% | 44 | +0.04 | 3.51 | 219 | 70 |
| Joaquín Benoit R 2027 · 3.73 FIP | 38 | SU | 3.73 | 24.8% | 8.7% | 3.0% | .179 | 4.04 | 23.5% | 12.9% | 98 | +0.31 | 3.72 | 164 | 67 |
| Juan Sandoval R 2025 · 3.53 FIP | 36 | SU | 3.53 | 16.7% | 7.2% | 1.7% | .298 | 5.49 | 15.9% | 8.7% | 57 | +1.96 | 3.17 | 225 | 64 |
| Matt Belisle R 2026 · 3.61 FIP | 37 | SU | 3.61 | 21.9% | 6.5% | 2.8% | .241 | 4.59 | 15.4% | 9.2% | 34 | +0.98 | 2.51 | 174 | 62 |
| Ryan Madson R 2026 · 3.65 FIP | 37 | SU | 3.65 | 23.4% | 6.1% | 3.2% | .327 | — | — | — | — | — | 1.42 | 240 | 62 |
| Zack Segovia R 2025 · 4.36 FIP | 36 | SU | 4.36 | 17.6% | 13.6% | 1.9% | .353 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.41 | 144 | 60 |
| Salvador Valdez R 2025 · 4.24 FIP | 36 | SW | 4.24 | 17.1% | 8.2% | 2.8% | .405 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.65 | 326 | 57 |
| Peter Moylan R 2026 · 3.58 FIP | 37 | SU | 3.58 | 17.7% | 7.9% | 1.8% | .263 | 3.98 | 18.5% | 8.6% | 88 | +0.40 | 3.10 | 174 | 57 |
| Matt Bush R 2026 · 3.83 FIP | 37 | SU | 3.83 | 26.6% | 9.3% | 3.3% | .225 | — | — | — | — | — | 2.86 | 249 | 56 |
| Jason Motte R 2024 · 5.16 FIP | 35 | SU | 5.16 | 16.3% | 11.4% | 3.6% | .193 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.11 | 113 | 55 |
| Ramon E Ramirez R 2024 · 3.63 FIP | 35 | SU | 3.63 | 14.0% | 5.8% | 1.8% | .286 | — | — | — | — | — | 2.35 | 140 | 54 |
| Rudy Gonzalez R 2025 · 4.56 FIP | 36 | SU | 4.56 | 15.8% | 7.1% | 3.5% | .354 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.32 | 119 | 54 |
| Chien-Ming Wang R 2025 · 4.52 FIP | 36 | SU | 4.52 | 13.0% | 7.8% | 2.8% | .305 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.13 | 183 | 53 |
| Hector Navarro R 2026 · 3.41 FIP | 37 | SU | 3.41 | 11.5% | 5.6% | 1.0% | .283 | — | — | — | — | — | 2.30 | 126 | 51 |
| Ronald Belisario R 2025 · 4.74 FIP | 36 | SU | 4.74 | 12.7% | 3.9% | 4.0% | .322 | — | — | — | — | — | 2.10 | 126 | 51 |
| Joe Blanton R 2025 · 4.94 FIP | 36 | SU | 4.94 | 20.0% | 5.6% | 5.1% | .319 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.13 | 240 | 50 |
Career Comps
Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 327 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).
| Player | Yrs | IP/yr | K% | BB% | HR/9 | ERA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION | 4 | 102 | 21.3% | 10.9% | 1.35 | 4.89 |
| James Kaprielian ('23) | 3 | 105 | 20.5% | 9.6% | 1.26 | 4.58 |
| Tom Koehler ('17) | 3 | 146 | 18.1% | 10.2% | 1.24 | 4.62 |
| Nate Karns ('17) | 3 | 96 | 24.2% | 9.3% | 1.22 | 4.24 |
| Chris Tillman ('18) | 4 | 116 | 16.5% | 9.7% | 1.34 | 5.42 |
| Ubaldo Jiménez ('17) | 3 | 156 | 20.8% | 9.5% | 1.32 | 5.33 |
| Zack Godley ('20) | 6 | 94 | 22.1% | 9.5% | 1.13 | 4.86 |