Caleb Ferguson — OGILVIE

Caleb Ferguson P Seattle Mariners

+0.4 WAR

INJURED · Injured 15-Day (D15)

Age 30 LHP 6'3" / 225 lbs MLB Svc 7.0 · Ctrl thru 2026 peak 0.8 · 2027

ERA3.75

FIP3.68

xFIP4.06

SIERA3.99

K%22.2%

BB%8.2%

K-BB%14.0%

IP60

trajectory · 10 yrs

0.8peak

2027

K†5555

FB Velo

p4193.9

Whiff%

p2221.4%

p2718.9%

xwOBA vs

p720.291

SL+5.6 (45%)

FB+4.1 (55%)

SI (23%)

CU (22%)

Career (MLE) + Projections

Park-neutral MLB-equivalent. MiLB translated via MLE factors. FIP-based WAR vs replacement FIP=5.3 (SP) / 4.95 (RP, <80 IP). FIP+ = runs above league-avg FIP · REP = replacement-level bonus.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	K%	BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
2015	19	ROK	AZL Dodgers	14	4	15	83	16	21	0	13.1%	31.6%	0.0%	8.59	6.00	-0.2
2016	20	A	Great Lakes Loons	14	12	66	260	63	5	3	17.4%	2.3%	1.6%	2.31	2.77	+1.7
2017	21	A+	Rancho Cucamonga Quakes	25	24	122	526	140	55	6	20.5%	12.0%	1.3%	2.87	3.63	+2.3
2018	22	MLB	Los Angeles Dodgers	39	13	96	395	111	28	10	25.6%	6.2%	2.7%	2.53	3.22	+2.2
2019	23	MLB	Los Angeles Dodgers	60	3	61	265	83	31	8	29.7%	11.5%	2.9%	3.98	3.63	+0.9
2020	24	MLB	Los Angeles Dodgers	21	1	19	75	27	3	4	36.0%	4.0%	5.0%	2.89	3.31	+0.3
2022	26	MLB	Los Angeles Dodgers	47	3	42	179	50	21	2	26.1%	12.0%	0.7%	2.79	2.79	+1.0
2023	27	MLB	Los Angeles Dodgers	68	7	60	270	70	23	4	25.9%	8.5%	1.4%	3.43	2.78	+1.5
2024	28	MLB	Houston Astros	62	0	54	249	67	24	6	26.9%	9.6%	2.3%	4.64	3.34	+1.0
2025	29	MLB	Seattle Mariners	70	0	65	270	51	19	2	18.9%	7.0%	0.7%	3.58	2.79	+1.6
▸ 2026 Season
2026	30	MLB	SEA	30	—	30	126	28	10	2	22.5%	8.2%	1.9%	3.70	3.67	+0.4
▸ 2027+ Projections — Marcel base + age-bracket aging
2027	31	MLB	SEA	58	—	58	243	53	20	5	21.9%	8.3%	2.0%	3.75	3.78	+0.8
2028	32	MLB	SEA	55	—	55	233	50	20	5	21.2%	8.5%	2.1%	3.84	3.89	+0.7
2029	33	MLB	SEA	53	—	53	223	46	19	5	20.6%	8.7%	2.2%	3.95	4.02	+0.6
2030	34	MLB	SEA	50	—	50	212	42	19	5	19.9%	8.9%	2.3%	4.08	4.16	+0.4
2031	35	MLB	SEA	47	—	47	200	38	18	5	19.1%	9.1%	2.4%	4.22	4.31	+0.3
2032	36	MLB	SEA	44	—	44	187	34	17	5	18.4%	9.3%	2.5%	4.37	4.48	+0.2
2033	37	MLB	SEA	41	—	41	173	30	17	5	17.5%	9.6%	2.6%	4.54	4.65	+0.1
▸ Career (all levels · actual + projected)
Career	—			420	67	601	2572	605	241	46	23.5%	9.4%	1.8%	3.29	3.28	+13.7
/ 200 IP	—			140	22	200	856	201	80	15	23.5%	9.4%	1.8%	3.29	3.28	+4.6

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Caleb Ferguson (OGILVIE)	—	—	3.67	22.5%	8.2%	1.9%	—	3.89	21.2%	12.8%	166	+0.22	—	—	—
Daniel Rodriguez L 2026 · 2.89 FIP	30	SU	2.89	20.2%	9.4%	0.6%	.256	4.17	16.3%	5.9%	234	+1.28	2.89	391	75
Fernando Abad L 2026 · 3.73 FIP	30	SU	3.73	20.7%	10.1%	2.0%	.271	3.03	21.8%	17.1%	88	-0.70	2.38	306	75
Boone Logan L 2026 · 3.05 FIP	30	SU	3.05	26.2%	9.5%	1.8%	.352	3.11	29.7%	20.6%	78	+0.06	2.64	113	75
Arturo Barradas L 2025 · 3.42 FIP	29	SU	3.42	18.1%	7.0%	1.8%	.288	3.24	16.1%	9.5%	34	-0.18	3.24	163	74
Jeff Ibarra L 2025 · 3.66 FIP	29	SU	3.66	18.1%	7.0%	2.2%	.342	2.89	20.6%	17.2%	29	-0.77	2.89	101	73
Heriberto Ruelas L 2029 · 2.97 FIP	33	SU	2.97	19.1%	7.3%	1.0%	.352	3.57	16.2%	8.5%	89	+0.60	2.97	117	73
Jorge Ibarra L 2025 · 3.05 FIP	29	SU	3.05	19.3%	6.5%	1.4%	.351	—	—	—	—	—	2.56	146	73
Zach Phillips L 2026 · 2.85 FIP	30	SU	2.85	19.2%	8.6%	0.5%	.301	3.67	19.1%	10.6%	36	+0.82	2.34	202	73
Marc Rzepczynski L 2026 · 2.78 FIP	30	SU	2.78	21.4%	9.8%	0.4%	.306	4.91	16.4%	3.3%	98	+2.13	2.71	181	72
Colt Hynes L 2026 · 3.42 FIP	30	SU	3.42	16.2%	8.4%	1.1%	.290	3.68	17.9%	13.2%	105	+0.26	3.42	152	72
Phil Coke L 2029 · 3.85 FIP	33	SU	3.85	18.8%	9.1%	2.1%	.373	3.04	18.0%	11.3%	70	-0.81	3.04	101	72
Buddy Boshers L 2026 · 3.23 FIP	30	SW	3.23	22.9%	6.6%	2.2%	.314	3.70	25.3%	14.9%	55	+0.47	2.83	223	71
Jared Koenig L 2026 · 2.72 FIP	30	SW	2.72	23.8%	7.2%	1.3%	.279	3.00	25.4%	18.3%	66	+0.28	2.72	455	70
Brandon Mann L 2028 · 4.73 FIP	32	SW	4.73	19.4%	7.9%	4.1%	.320	3.99	19.0%	7.6%	128	-0.74	3.59	190	70
Jake Diekman L 2025 · 3.23 FIP	29	SW	3.23	26.7%	11.3%	1.7%	.241	3.08	28.6%	15.8%	115	-0.15	2.32	455	70
Andrew Barbosa L 2025 · 4.68 FIP	29	SW	4.68	20.2%	9.6%	3.8%	.301	—	—	—	—	—	2.70	175	69
Brian Moran L 2026 · 3.39 FIP	30	SW	3.39	26.9%	10.0%	2.4%	.269	2.98	25.5%	18.5%	99	-0.41	1.81	421	69
Mike Dunn L 2026 · 3.77 FIP	30	SW	3.77	27.7%	11.9%	2.7%	.294	4.21	22.5%	10.9%	110	+0.44	3.70	181	69
Franklin Morales L 2025 · 3.33 FIP	29	SW	3.33	15.9%	5.4%	1.6%	.271	4.03	15.0%	7.0%	39	+0.70	3.33	101	69
Dan Jennings L 2026 · 4.33 FIP	30	SW	4.33	19.1%	9.0%	3.1%	.245	3.85	16.6%	8.5%	64	-0.48	3.06	244	69

Contract

ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status FA

MLB Debut 2018

Service 7.541 yrs.days

Team Control Through 2026

First FA Year 2027

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2026	Ext / FA-deal	$4M	+0.4	$2M	-$2M
Totals		$4M		$2M	-$2M