Caleb Ferguson — OGILVIE

Caleb Ferguson P St. Louis Cardinals

Age 30 LHP 6'3" / 225 lbs MLB peak 0.6 · 2026

2026 ROS PROJECTION41 act + 5 ip · rates below = ROS only

showingROS

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 9199vR 108

ERA3.62

FIP3.55

K%21.5%

BB%9.0%

K-BB%12.5%

ROS IP5

Value2026 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 46 IP

Grades · Statcast · Arsenal · Contract

Scouting Grades

STUF4545

CTRL4545

CMD5050

K†5555

Statcast Percentiles

FB Velo

p1892.2

Whiff%

p1019.7%

p4020.7%

xwOBA vs

p310.334

SL+5.6 (45%)

FB+4.1 (55%)

SI (23%)

CU (22%)

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2026 so far)
2015	19	ROK MLE	AZL Dodgers	14	4	15	83	16	21	0	29%	1.0	13.1%	31.6%	-18.5%	0.0%	8.59	6.00	—
2015	19	ROK RAW	AZL Dodgers	14	4	15	83	16	21	0	29%	1.0	19.3%	25.3%	-6.0%	0.0%	8.59	5.21	—
2016	20	MIX MLE	2 levels	14	12	66	260	63	5	3	86%	4.7	17.4%	2.3%	15.1%	1.6%	2.31	2.78	—
2016	20	MIX RAW	2 levels	14	12	66	260	63	5	3	86%	4.7	24.2%	1.9%	22.3%	1.2%	2.31	2.01	—
2017	21	A+ MLE	Rancho Cucamonga Quakes	25	24	122	526	140	55	6	96%	4.9	20.5%	12.0%	8.5%	1.3%	2.87	3.61	—
2017	21	A+ RAW	Rancho Cucamonga Quakes	25	24	122	526	140	55	6	96%	4.9	26.6%	10.5%	16.2%	1.1%	2.87	2.80	—
2018	22	MIX MLE	3 levels	39	13	96	395	111	28	10	33%	2.5	25.6%	6.2%	19.4%	2.7%	2.53	3.22	+1.5
2018	22	MIX RAW	3 levels	39	13	96	395	111	28	10	33%	2.5	28.1%	7.1%	21.0%	2.5%	2.53	3.02	+1.8
2019	23	MIX MLE	3 levels	60	3	61	265	83	31	8	5%	1.0	29.7%	11.5%	18.1%	3.0%	3.98	3.68	+0.6
2019	23	MIX RAW	3 levels	60	3	61	265	83	31	8	5%	1.0	31.3%	11.7%	19.6%	3.0%	3.98	3.61	+0.7
2020	24	MLB MLE	Los Angeles Dodgers	21	1	19	75	27	3	4	5%	0.9	36.0%	4.0%	32.0%	5.1%	2.89	3.37	+0.3
2020	24	MLB RAW	Los Angeles Dodgers	21	1	19	75	27	3	4	5%	0.9	36.0%	4.0%	32.0%	5.3%	2.89	3.48	+0.2
2022	26	MIX MLE	2 levels	47	3	42	179	50	21	2	6%	0.9	26.1%	12.0%	14.1%	0.7%	2.79	2.79	+0.9
2022	26	MIX RAW	2 levels	47	3	42	179	50	21	2	6%	0.9	27.9%	11.7%	16.2%	1.1%	2.79	2.84	+0.9
2023	27	MLB MLE	Los Angeles Dodgers	68	7	60	270	70	23	4	10%	0.9	25.9%	8.5%	17.4%	1.4%	3.43	2.77	+1.3
2023	27	MLB MLE	Los Angeles Dodgers	68	7	60	270	70	23	4	10%	0.9	25.9%	8.5%	17.4%	1.4%	3.43	2.77	+1.3
2023	27	MLB RAW	Los Angeles Dodgers	68	7	60	270	70	23	4	10%	0.9	25.9%	8.5%	17.4%	1.5%	3.43	2.79	+1.3
2024	28	MLB MLE	Houston Astros	62	0	54	249	67	24	6	0%	0.9	26.9%	9.6%	17.3%	2.5%	4.64	3.41	+0.7
2024	28	MLB MLE	Houston Astros	62	0	54	249	67	24	6	0%	0.9	26.9%	9.6%	17.3%	2.5%	4.64	3.41	+0.7
2024	28	MLB RAW	Houston Astros	62	0	54	249	67	24	6	0%	0.9	26.9%	9.6%	17.3%	2.4%	4.64	3.39	+0.7
2025	29	MLB MLE	Seattle Mariners	70	0	65	270	51	19	2	0%	0.9	18.9%	7.0%	11.9%	0.8%	3.58	2.81	+1.4
2025	29	MLB MLE	Seattle Mariners	70	0	65	270	51	19	2	0%	0.9	18.9%	7.0%	11.9%	0.8%	3.58	2.81	+1.4
2025	29	MLB RAW	Seattle Mariners	70	0	65	270	51	19	2	0%	0.9	18.9%	7.0%	11.9%	0.7%	3.58	2.81	+1.4
▸ Career totals (raw MLB only — as recorded)
MLB Career	—			368	15	360	1562	396	139	37	4%	1.0	25.4%	8.9%	16.5%	2.4%	3.80	3.39	+4.9
▸ 2026 season
YTD	30	MLB MLE	St. Louis Cardinals	43	3	41	192	38	23	7	7%	0.9	20.7%	11.3%	9.3%	3.6%	6.64	4.76	-0.1
YTD	30	MLB MLE	St. Louis Cardinals	43	3	41	192	38	23	7	7%	0.9	20.7%	11.3%	9.3%	3.6%	6.64	4.76	-0.1
▸ 2026 season — so far · projected rest · full
2026	30	AA RAW	STL	2	2	2	8	3	1	1	100%	1.0	37.5%	12.5%	25.0%	12.5%	4.50	8.38	—
2026	30	AAA RAW	STL	6	0	6	34	4	5	1	0%	1.0	11.8%	14.7%	-2.9%	2.9%	15.88	5.58	—
2026	30	MLB RAW	STL	35	1	33	150	31	17	5	3%	0.9	20.7%	11.3%	9.3%	3.3%	5.18	4.62	-0.0
SO FAR	30	MLB RAW	STL	35	1	33	150	31	17	5	3%	0.9	20.7%	11.3%	9.3%	3.3%	5.18	4.62	-0.0
ROS	30	MLB MLE	STL	5	0	5	21	5	2	0	0%	1.0	21.5%	9.0%	12.5%	2.1%	3.62	3.55	+0.1
ROS	30	MLB CTX	STL	5	0	5	21	5	2	0	0%	1.0	21.5%	9.0%	12.5%	2.1%	3.62	3.55	+0.1
2026 TOT	30	MLB MLE	STL	—	—	46	213	43	25	7	—	—	20.0%	11.7%	8.3%	3.5%	6.31	4.62	-0.0
FULL	30	MLB A+C	STL	—	—	38	161	43	25	7	—	—	26.5%	15.5%	11.0%	4.6%	7.58	5.37	-0.0
▸ Career projection (2027+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2027	31	MLB MLE	STL	53	0	56	235	49	22	6	0%	1.1	20.8%	9.4%	11.5%	2.5%	4.21	4.28	+0.2
2028	32	MLB MLE	STL	49	0	52	217	44	21	6	0%	1.1	20.0%	9.8%	10.3%	2.7%	4.40	4.53	+0.0
2027	31	MLB CTX	STL	53	0	56	236	49	22	6	0%	1.1	20.8%	9.4%	11.5%	2.5%	4.21	4.28	+0.2
2028	32	MLB CTX	STL	50	0	52	220	44	21	6	0%	1.0	20.0%	9.8%	10.3%	2.7%	4.40	4.53	+0.0
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		475	15	472	2036	493	184	49	3%	1.0	24.2%	9.0%	15.2%	2.4%	3.91	3.53	+5.7
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		201	6	200	862	209	78	21	3%	1.0	24.2%	9.0%	15.2%	2.4%	3.91	3.53	+2.4
Career	—	MLE		463	70	642	2764	645	263	54	15%	1.4	23.3%	9.5%	13.8%	1.9%	3.51	3.40	+5.2
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		144	22	200	862	201	82	17	15%	1.4	23.3%	9.5%	13.8%	1.9%	3.51	3.40	+2.2

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Caleb Ferguson (OGILVIE)	—	—	3.70	22.0%	8.0%	1.9%	—	4.40	20.4%	10.9%	107	+0.70	—	—	—
Dan Jennings L 2017 · 4.32 FIP	30	SU	4.32	19.1%	9.0%	3.1%	.245	3.88	16.6%	8.5%	64	-0.44	3.11	244	79
Fernando Abad L 2016 · 3.77 FIP	30	SU	3.77	20.7%	10.1%	2.1%	.271	2.95	21.8%	17.1%	88	-0.82	2.37	306	79
Buddy Boshers L 2018 · 3.22 FIP	30	SU	3.22	22.9%	6.6%	2.2%	.314	3.73	25.3%	14.9%	55	+0.51	2.80	223	76
Antonio Bastardo L 2016 · 4.43 FIP	30	SU	4.43	24.9%	9.8%	4.0%	.268	8.05	15.0%	-1.4%	20	+3.62	3.10	145	75
Zack Britton L 2018 · 3.89 FIP	30	SU	3.89	20.1%	12.4%	1.7%	.234	3.57	21.1%	8.3%	99	-0.32	1.58	309	74
Daniel Rodriguez L 2015 · 2.89 FIP	30	SU	2.89	20.2%	9.4%	0.6%	.256	4.17	16.3%	5.9%	234	+1.28	2.89	391	74
Marc Rzepczynski L 2016 · 2.79 FIP	30	SU	2.79	21.4%	9.8%	0.5%	.306	4.93	16.4%	3.3%	98	+2.14	2.73	181	73
Andrew Barbosa L 2017 · 4.67 FIP	29	SU	4.67	20.2%	9.6%	3.8%	.301	—	—	—	—	—	2.70	175	73
Phil Coke L 2015 · 3.89 FIP	33	SU	3.89	18.8%	9.1%	2.2%	.373	3.04	18.0%	11.3%	70	-0.85	3.04	101	72
Jake Diekman L 2016 · 3.23 FIP	29	SU	3.23	26.7%	11.3%	1.7%	.241	3.09	28.6%	15.8%	115	-0.14	2.36	455	72
Colt Hynes L 2015 · 3.42 FIP	30	SU	3.42	16.2%	8.4%	1.1%	.290	3.66	17.9%	13.2%	105	+0.24	3.42	152	72
Arturo Barradas L 2017 · 3.42 FIP	29	SU	3.42	18.1%	7.0%	1.8%	.288	3.24	16.1%	9.5%	34	-0.18	3.24	163	72
Vidal Nuño L 2017 · 4.57 FIP	30	SU	4.57	20.7%	8.1%	4.0%	.315	4.17	20.6%	15.0%	125	-0.40	4.00	424	72
Jeff Ibarra L 2017 · 3.64 FIP	29	SU	3.64	18.1%	7.0%	2.1%	.342	2.85	20.6%	17.2%	29	-0.79	2.85	101	71
Zach Phillips L 2017 · 2.85 FIP	30	SU	2.85	19.2%	8.6%	0.5%	.301	3.67	19.1%	10.6%	36	+0.82	2.33	202	71
Aaron Loup L 2018 · 3.16 FIP	30	SU	3.16	24.0%	7.7%	2.0%	.364	2.50	25.1%	18.8%	82	-0.66	2.07	363	71
Tommy Layne L 2015 · 3.61 FIP	30	SU	3.61	21.7%	12.1%	1.5%	.284	3.34	20.2%	11.0%	97	-0.27	1.32	182	71
Boone Logan L 2015 · 2.96 FIP	30	SU	2.96	26.2%	9.5%	1.6%	.352	3.05	29.7%	20.6%	78	+0.09	2.58	113	70
Ryan Buchter L 2017 · 4.45 FIP	30	SU	4.45	24.3%	9.3%	4.0%	.202	4.19	25.3%	15.6%	85	-0.26	2.37	296	70
Luis Avilán L 2019 · 4.51 FIP	30	SU	4.51	21.3%	9.9%	3.5%	.304	5.40	22.2%	12.2%	26	+0.89	2.62	256	70

Career Comps

Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 133 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	0.8	56	21.0%	9.0%	0.92	4.11
Trevor Gott ('23)	1.0	51	22.0%	7.4%	0.79	3.97
Cory Gearrin ('19)	1.1	57	21.5%	9.8%	0.79	3.42
Derek Law ('24)	1.5	60	21.5%	8.9%	0.88	3.47
Josh Winckowski ('24)	1.2	77	18.3%	8.2%	1.13	4.21
Robert Gsellman ('21)	1.7	67	18.4%	7.8%	0.96	4.38
Archie Bradley ('21)	2.2	74	23.2%	9.8%	0.85	3.93