Caleb Ferguson
P
Cincinnati Reds
Age 30
LHP
6'3" / 225 lbs
MLB
peak 0.6 · 2026
2026 ROS PROJECTION26 act + 41 ip · rates below = ROS only
wRC+ AGAINSTvL 7686vR 95
ERA3.33
FIP3.27
K%21.8%
BB%7.9%
K-BB%13.9%
ROS IP41
Value2026 · WAR
Runs saved vs league avg · 67 IP
Grades · Statcast · Arsenal · Contract
Statcast Percentiles
FB Velo
p2292.5
Whiff%
p1019.3%
K%
p4421.3%
xwOBA vs
p850.278
SL+5.6 (45%)
FB+4.1 (55%)
SI (23%)
CU (22%)
Contract
No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.
Career Stats + Projections
Viewactual = stats as recorded (seasons combined) + projected real-world MLB lines · MLE = level/park-neutral translations
Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed
Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | G | GS | IP | BF | K | BB | HR | GS% | IP/G | K% | BB% | K-BB% | HR% | ERA | FIP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2015 | 19 | ROK | AZL Dodgers | 14 | 4 | 15 | 83 | 16 | 21 | 0 | 29% | 1.0 | 13.1% | 31.6% | -18.5% | 0.0% | 8.59 | 6.00 | — |
| 2015 | 19 | ROK | AZL Dodgers | 14 | 4 | 15 | 83 | 16 | 21 | 0 | 29% | 1.0 | 19.3% | 25.3% | -6.0% | 0.0% | 8.59 | 5.21 | — |
| 2016 | 20 | MIX | 2 levels | 14 | 12 | 66 | 260 | 63 | 5 | 3 | 86% | 4.7 | 17.4% | 2.3% | 15.1% | 1.6% | 2.31 | 2.82 | — |
| 2016 | 20 | MIX | 2 levels | 14 | 12 | 66 | 260 | 63 | 5 | 3 | 86% | 4.7 | 24.2% | 1.9% | 22.3% | 1.2% | 2.31 | 2.01 | — |
| 2017 | 21 | A+ | Rancho Cucamonga Quakes | 25 | 24 | 122 | 526 | 140 | 55 | 6 | 96% | 4.9 | 20.5% | 12.0% | 8.5% | 1.2% | 2.87 | 3.56 | — |
| 2017 | 21 | A+ | Rancho Cucamonga Quakes | 25 | 24 | 122 | 526 | 140 | 55 | 6 | 96% | 4.9 | 26.6% | 10.5% | 16.2% | 1.1% | 2.87 | 2.80 | — |
| 2018 | 22 | MIX | 3 levels | 39 | 13 | 96 | 395 | 111 | 28 | 10 | 33% | 2.5 | 25.6% | 6.2% | 19.4% | 2.9% | 2.53 | 3.31 | +2.3 |
| 2018 | 22 | MIX | 3 levels | 39 | 13 | 96 | 395 | 111 | 28 | 10 | 33% | 2.5 | 28.1% | 7.1% | 21.0% | 2.5% | 2.53 | 3.02 | +2.6 |
| 2019 | 23 | MIX | 3 levels | 60 | 3 | 61 | 265 | 83 | 31 | 8 | 5% | 1.0 | 29.7% | 11.5% | 18.1% | 3.2% | 3.98 | 3.81 | +0.5 |
| 2019 | 23 | MIX | 3 levels | 60 | 3 | 61 | 265 | 83 | 31 | 8 | 5% | 1.0 | 31.3% | 11.7% | 19.6% | 3.0% | 3.98 | 3.61 | +0.7 |
| 2020 | 24 | MLB | Los Angeles Dodgers | 21 | 1 | 19 | 75 | 27 | 3 | 4 | 5% | 0.9 | 36.0% | 4.0% | 32.0% | 5.6% | 2.89 | 3.66 | +0.2 |
| 2020 | 24 | MLB | Los Angeles Dodgers | 21 | 1 | 19 | 75 | 27 | 3 | 4 | 5% | 0.9 | 36.0% | 4.0% | 32.0% | 5.3% | 2.89 | 3.48 | +0.2 |
| 2022 | 26 | MIX | 2 levels | 47 | 3 | 42 | 179 | 50 | 21 | 2 | 6% | 0.9 | 26.1% | 12.0% | 14.1% | 0.7% | 2.79 | 2.83 | +0.8 |
| 2022 | 26 | MIX | 2 levels | 47 | 3 | 42 | 179 | 50 | 21 | 2 | 6% | 0.9 | 27.9% | 11.7% | 16.2% | 1.1% | 2.79 | 2.84 | +0.8 |
| 2023 | 27 | MLB | Los Angeles Dodgers | 68 | 7 | 60 | 270 | 70 | 23 | 4 | 10% | 0.9 | 25.9% | 8.5% | 17.4% | 1.6% | 3.43 | 2.85 | +1.2 |
| 2023 | 27 | MLB | Los Angeles Dodgers | 68 | 7 | 60 | 270 | 70 | 23 | 4 | 10% | 0.9 | 25.9% | 8.5% | 17.4% | 1.5% | 3.43 | 2.79 | +1.3 |
| 2024 | 28 | MLB | Houston Astros | 62 | 0 | 54 | 249 | 67 | 24 | 6 | 0% | 0.9 | 26.9% | 9.6% | 17.3% | 2.3% | 4.64 | 3.30 | +0.8 |
| 2024 | 28 | MLB | Houston Astros | 62 | 0 | 54 | 249 | 67 | 24 | 6 | 0% | 0.9 | 26.9% | 9.6% | 17.3% | 2.4% | 4.64 | 3.39 | +0.7 |
| 2025 | 29 | MLB | Seattle Mariners | 70 | 0 | 65 | 270 | 51 | 19 | 2 | 0% | 0.9 | 18.9% | 7.0% | 11.9% | 0.8% | 3.58 | 2.82 | +1.4 |
| 2025 | 29 | MLB | Seattle Mariners | 70 | 0 | 65 | 270 | 51 | 19 | 2 | 0% | 0.9 | 18.9% | 7.0% | 11.9% | 0.7% | 3.58 | 2.81 | +1.4 |
| ▸ 2026 Season | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2026 | 30 | MLB | Cincinnati Reds | 27 | 2 | 26 | 122 | 24 | 12 | 3 | 7% | 1.0 | 21.2% | 7.5% | 13.8% | 1.2% | 5.47 | 2.94 | +0.5 |
| ROS | 30 | MLB | CIN | 39 | 0 | 41 | 173 | 38 | 14 | 3 | 0% | 1.1 | 21.8% | 7.9% | 13.9% | 1.8% | 3.33 | 3.27 | +0.6 |
| ROS | 30 | MLB | CIN | 39 | 0 | 41 | 173 | 38 | 14 | 3 | 0% | 1.1 | 21.8% | 7.9% | 13.9% | 1.8% | 3.33 | 3.27 | +0.6 |
| 2026 TOT | 30 | MLB | CIN | — | — | 67 | 295 | 62 | 26 | 6 | — | — | 20.9% | 8.7% | 12.2% | 2.1% | 4.17 | 3.14 | +1.2 |
| 2026 FULL | 30 | MLB | CIN | — | — | 60 | 252 | 62 | 26 | 6 | — | — | 24.5% | 10.2% | 14.3% | 2.5% | 4.70 | 3.67 | +0.6 |
| ▸ 2027+ Projections WITH CONTEXT · MLB TIME ONLY ⓘ | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 31 | MLB | CIN | 53 | 0 | 56 | 235 | 50 | 19 | 5 | 0% | 1.1 | 21.1% | 8.3% | 12.8% | 2.1% | 3.81 | 3.88 | +0.4 |
| 2028 | 32 | MLB | CIN | 49 | 0 | 52 | 217 | 44 | 19 | 5 | 0% | 1.1 | 20.3% | 8.7% | 11.6% | 2.3% | 4.00 | 4.13 | +0.3 |
| 2029 | 33 | MLB | CIN | 45 | 0 | 47 | 200 | 39 | 18 | 5 | 0% | 1.1 | 19.4% | 9.1% | 10.3% | 2.6% | 4.25 | 4.41 | +0.1 |
| 2027 | 31 | MLB | CIN | 50 | 0 | 53 | 224 | 47 | 19 | 5 | 0% | 1.1 | 21.1% | 8.3% | 12.8% | 2.1% | 3.81 | 3.88 | +0.4 |
| 2028 | 32 | MLB | CIN | 47 | 0 | 49 | 207 | 42 | 18 | 5 | 0% | 1.0 | 20.3% | 8.7% | 11.6% | 2.3% | 4.00 | 4.13 | +0.2 |
| 2029 | 33 | MLB | CIN | 43 | 0 | 45 | 190 | 37 | 17 | 5 | 0% | 1.0 | 19.4% | 9.1% | 10.3% | 2.6% | 4.25 | 4.41 | +0.1 |
| ▸ Career (MLB actual + context projections) | |||||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | 531 | 14 | 533 | 2285 | 546 | 196 | 50 | 3% | 1.0 | 23.9% | 8.6% | 15.3% | 2.2% | 3.69 | 3.38 | +12.6 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 199 | 5 | 200 | 857 | 205 | 73 | 19 | 3% | 1.0 | 23.9% | 8.6% | 15.3% | 2.2% | 3.69 | 3.38 | +4.7 | ||
| Career | — | 447 | 69 | 627 | 2694 | 631 | 250 | 50 | 15% | 1.4 | 23.4% | 9.3% | 14.2% | 1.8% | 3.39 | 3.31 | +15.4 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 143 | 22 | 200 | 859 | 201 | 80 | 16 | 15% | 1.4 | 23.4% | 9.3% | 14.2% | 1.8% | 3.39 | 3.31 | +4.9 | ||
Career Path Comps
What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection
| Profile at Match Age | Next 3 Yrs | Career | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Comp | Age | Role | FIP | K% | BB% | HR/BF | BABIP | FIP | K% | K-BB% | IP | ΔFIP | Low FIP | IP | Match |
| Caleb Ferguson (OGILVIE) | — | — | 3.70 | 22.0% | 8.0% | 1.9% | — | 4.13 | 20.3% | 11.6% | 154 | +0.43 | — | — | — |
| Daniel Rodriguez L 2026 · 2.87 FIP | 30 | SU | 2.87 | 20.2% | 9.4% | 0.5% | .256 | 4.18 | 16.3% | 5.9% | 234 | +1.31 | 2.87 | 391 | 74 |
| Fernando Abad L 2026 · 3.73 FIP | 30 | SU | 3.73 | 20.7% | 10.1% | 2.0% | .271 | 2.91 | 21.8% | 17.1% | 88 | -0.82 | 2.35 | 306 | 74 |
| Buddy Boshers L 2026 · 3.17 FIP | 30 | SU | 3.17 | 22.9% | 6.6% | 2.1% | .314 | 3.73 | 25.3% | 14.9% | 55 | +0.56 | 2.81 | 223 | 73 |
| Arturo Barradas L 2025 · 3.45 FIP | 29 | SU | 3.45 | 18.1% | 7.0% | 1.8% | .288 | 3.17 | 16.1% | 9.5% | 34 | -0.28 | 3.17 | 163 | 73 |
| Jared Koenig L 2026 · 2.86 FIP | 30 | SU | 2.86 | 23.8% | 7.2% | 1.6% | .279 | 3.14 | 25.4% | 18.3% | 66 | +0.28 | 2.86 | 455 | 72 |
| Zach Phillips L 2026 · 2.86 FIP | 30 | SU | 2.86 | 19.2% | 8.6% | 0.5% | .301 | 3.65 | 19.1% | 10.6% | 36 | +0.79 | 2.29 | 202 | 72 |
| Jeff Ibarra L 2025 · 3.73 FIP | 29 | SU | 3.73 | 18.1% | 7.0% | 2.3% | .342 | 2.95 | 20.6% | 17.2% | 29 | -0.78 | 2.95 | 101 | 71 |
| Colt Hynes L 2026 · 3.44 FIP | 30 | SU | 3.44 | 16.2% | 8.4% | 1.2% | .290 | 3.67 | 17.9% | 13.2% | 105 | +0.23 | 3.44 | 152 | 71 |
| Jorge Ibarra L 2025 · 3.02 FIP | 29 | SU | 3.02 | 19.3% | 6.5% | 1.3% | .351 | — | — | — | — | — | 2.57 | 146 | 71 |
| Heriberto Ruelas L 2029 · 3.05 FIP | 33 | SU | 3.05 | 19.1% | 7.3% | 1.2% | .352 | 3.71 | 16.2% | 8.5% | 89 | +0.66 | 3.05 | 117 | 71 |
| Boone Logan L 2026 · 2.85 FIP | 30 | SU | 2.85 | 26.2% | 9.5% | 1.4% | .352 | 3.01 | 29.7% | 20.6% | 78 | +0.16 | 2.44 | 113 | 71 |
| Marc Rzepczynski L 2026 · 2.79 FIP | 30 | SU | 2.79 | 21.4% | 9.8% | 0.5% | .306 | 4.90 | 16.4% | 3.3% | 98 | +2.11 | 2.79 | 181 | 71 |
| Phil Coke L 2029 · 4.00 FIP | 33 | SU | 4.00 | 18.8% | 9.1% | 2.4% | .373 | 3.04 | 18.0% | 11.3% | 70 | -0.96 | 3.04 | 101 | 71 |
| Franklin Morales L 2025 · 3.36 FIP | 29 | SU | 3.36 | 15.9% | 5.4% | 1.7% | .271 | 4.06 | 15.0% | 7.0% | 39 | +0.70 | 3.36 | 101 | 71 |
| Antonio Bastardo L 2026 · 4.29 FIP | 30 | SU | 4.29 | 24.9% | 9.8% | 3.7% | .268 | 8.16 | 15.0% | -1.4% | 20 | +3.87 | 3.04 | 145 | 71 |
| Dan Jennings L 2026 · 4.37 FIP | 30 | SU | 4.37 | 19.1% | 9.0% | 3.2% | .245 | 3.99 | 16.6% | 8.5% | 64 | -0.38 | 3.09 | 244 | 70 |
| Cesár Ramos L 2027 · 2.83 FIP | 31 | SU | 2.83 | 19.5% | 6.8% | 0.9% | .329 | 4.69 | 15.9% | 7.8% | 172 | +1.86 | 2.83 | 225 | 70 |
| Tony Watson L 2026 · 2.57 FIP | 30 | SU | 2.57 | 21.2% | 5.5% | 1.0% | .245 | 3.46 | 22.3% | 17.1% | 200 | +0.89 | 2.22 | 405 | 70 |
| Brian Moran L 2026 · 3.29 FIP | 30 | SU | 3.29 | 26.9% | 10.0% | 2.2% | .269 | 3.00 | 25.5% | 18.5% | 99 | -0.29 | 1.67 | 421 | 69 |
| Andrew Barbosa L 2025 · 4.83 FIP | 29 | SU | 4.83 | 20.2% | 9.6% | 4.0% | .301 | — | — | — | — | — | 2.68 | 175 | 69 |
Career Comps
Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 327 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).
| Player | Yrs | IP/yr | K% | BB% | HR/9 | ERA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION | 4 | 54 | 20.8% | 8.5% | 0.85 | 3.94 |
| Jim Johnson ('18) | 4 | 63 | 20.7% | 8.0% | 0.90 | 4.19 |
| Scott Oberg ('19) | 5 | 51 | 21.5% | 9.3% | 0.91 | 3.85 |
| Trevor Gott ('23) | 4 | 51 | 22.0% | 7.4% | 0.79 | 3.97 |
| Carlos Torres ('17) | 3 | 71 | 20.1% | 9.0% | 0.97 | 3.77 |
| Derek Law ('24) | 5 | 60 | 21.5% | 8.9% | 0.88 | 3.47 |
| Randall Delgado ('17) | 3 | 70 | 22.2% | 9.2% | 0.90 | 3.78 |