Jake Jewell prospect projection, MLE, ETA

Jake Jewell P Lehigh Valley IronPigs

Age 33 RHP 6'2" / 217 lbs AAA

2026 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONpark-neutral Marcel · 157 proj IP

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 120112vR 104

ERA4.57

FIP4.57

K%23.7%

BB%10.0%

K-BB%13.7%

ROS IP158

Value2026 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 157 IP

Grades · Statcast · Arsenal · Contract

Scouting Grades

STUF6060

CTRL5050

CMD4545

K†5555

Statcast Percentiles

FB Velo

p5194.6

Whiff%

p7028.4%

p3219.6%

xwOBA vs

p100.377

CH-0.7

SL-1.6

FB-5.7

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2026 so far)
2015	22	A MLE	Burlington Bees	31	15	111	476	110	31	8	48%	3.6	17.1%	7.7%	9.4%	1.5%	4.77	3.47	—
2015	22	A RAW	Burlington Bees	31	15	111	476	110	31	8	48%	3.6	23.1%	6.5%	16.6%	1.7%	4.77	2.89	—
2016	23	A+ MLE	Inland Empire 66ers	28	27	137	655	104	64	10	96%	4.9	12.2%	11.2%	1.0%	2.2%	6.31	4.69	—
2016	23	A+ RAW	Inland Empire 66ers	28	27	137	655	104	64	10	96%	4.9	15.9%	9.8%	6.1%	1.5%	6.31	3.93	—
2017	24	MIX MLE	2 levels	27	26	141	605	96	44	15	96%	5.2	12.8%	8.0%	4.7%	3.3%	4.54	4.85	—
2017	24	MIX RAW	2 levels	27	26	141	605	96	44	15	96%	5.2	15.9%	7.3%	8.6%	2.5%	4.54	4.06	—
2018	25	MIX MLE	3 levels	29	0	40	175	36	20	3	0%	1.4	18.3%	12.2%	6.1%	2.2%	3.38	4.29	+0.1
2018	25	MIX RAW	3 levels	29	0	40	175	36	20	3	0%	1.4	20.6%	11.4%	9.1%	1.7%	3.38	3.78	+0.4
2019	26	MIX MLE	2 levels	52	0	64	283	64	25	11	0%	1.2	20.9%	9.1%	11.7%	3.9%	5.91	4.62	-0.1
2019	26	MIX RAW	2 levels	52	0	64	283	64	25	11	0%	1.2	22.6%	8.8%	13.8%	3.9%	5.91	4.51	+0.0
2021	28	MIX MLE	2 levels	43	0	55	237	60	24	9	0%	1.3	22.8%	10.5%	12.3%	4.1%	4.58	4.74	-0.1
2021	28	MIX RAW	2 levels	43	0	55	237	60	24	9	0%	1.3	25.3%	10.1%	15.2%	3.8%	4.58	4.35	+0.1
2022	29	AAA MLE	St. Paul Saints	45	0	56	235	65	21	1	0%	1.2	24.3%	9.4%	15.0%	0.5%	3.21	2.52	—
2022	29	AAA RAW	St. Paul Saints	45	0	56	235	65	21	1	0%	1.2	27.7%	8.9%	18.7%	0.4%	3.21	2.14	—
2023	30	AAA MLE	Lehigh Valley IronPigs	22	6	25	114	26	14	4	27%	1.1	19.6%	11.1%	8.6%	3.8%	7.66	4.91	—
2023	30	AAA MLE	Lehigh Valley IronPigs	22	6	25	114	26	14	4	27%	1.1	19.6%	11.1%	8.6%	3.8%	7.66	4.91	—
2023	30	AAA RAW	Lehigh Valley IronPigs	22	6	25	114	26	14	4	27%	1.1	22.8%	12.3%	10.5%	3.5%	7.66	4.80	—
▸ Career totals (raw MLB only — as recorded)
MLB Career	—			31	0	38	176	34	14	13	0%	1.2	19.3%	8.0%	11.4%	7.4%	7.75	6.83	-1.0
▸ 2026 season — projected remainder (no 2026 stats recorded)
2026	33	MLB	PHI	—	—	0	—	—	—	—	—	—	23.7%	10.0%	13.7%	3.3%	4.57	4.57	—
▸ Career projection (2027+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2027	34	MLB MLE	PHI	139	0	146	617	140	63	22	0%	1.1	22.6%	10.2%	12.4%	3.6%	4.72	4.84	-0.5
2028	35	MLB MLE	PHI	125	0	131	554	120	59	22	0%	1.0	21.6%	10.6%	11.0%	3.9%	4.95	5.13	-0.8
2027	34	MLB CTX	PHI	8	0	8	34	8	3	1	0%	1.0	22.6%	10.2%	12.4%	3.6%	4.72	4.84	-0.0
2028	35	MLB CTX	PHI	1	0	1	4	1	0	0	0%	1.0	21.6%	10.6%	11.0%	3.9%	4.95	5.13	-0.0
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		40	0	48	215	43	18	14	0%	1.2	19.9%	8.4%	11.5%	6.7%	7.16	6.16	-0.9
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		167	0	200	904	180	75	59	0%	1.2	19.9%	8.4%	11.5%	6.7%	7.16	6.16	-3.7
Career	—	MLE		277	74	629	2780	463	266	72	27%	2.3	16.7%	9.6%	7.1%	2.6%	5.04	4.31	-2.4
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		88	24	200	884	147	84	23	27%	2.3	16.7%	9.6%	7.1%	2.6%	5.04	4.31	-1.5

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Jake Jewell (OGILVIE)	—	—	4.57	23.7%	10.0%	3.3%	—	4.98	22.1%	11.7%	277	+0.41	—	—	—
Giovanni Carrara R 2001 · 4.06 FIP	33	SU	4.06	20.1%	6.0%	3.5%	.249	4.28	15.7%	7.9%	173	+0.22	2.50	462	56
Chris Jakubauskas R 2011 · 4.42 FIP	32	SW	4.42	15.7%	7.9%	3.0%	.339	—	—	—	—	—	4.42	165	55
Felipe Arredondo R 2019 · 4.65 FIP	32	SU	4.65	16.2%	7.1%	3.7%	.272	—	—	—	—	—	3.92	337	52
Tony Barnette R 2017 · 3.56 FIP	33	SU	3.56	22.6%	7.1%	2.7%	.335	2.61	25.0%	20.2%	26	-0.95	2.61	144	52
Hirokazu Sawamura R 2021 · 4.48 FIP	33	SU	4.48	26.2%	11.2%	4.0%	.263	4.02	18.1%	6.8%	51	-0.46	4.02	104	52
Ivan Maldonado R 2015 · 4.60 FIP	35	SW	4.60	12.8%	8.7%	2.7%	.269	5.41	6.4%	-3.3%	104	+0.81	4.60	172	51
Keiichi Yabu R 2005 · 4.05 FIP	36	SU	4.05	16.8%	8.8%	2.3%	.307	3.48	15.9%	6.6%	68	-0.57	3.48	126	51
Angel Sánchez R 2023 · 4.90 FIP	33	SW	4.90	19.0%	10.5%	3.8%	.333	3.77	11.8%	6.8%	27	-1.13	3.77	284	51
D.J. Carrasco R 2010 · 3.45 FIP	33	SU	3.45	19.7%	9.4%	1.5%	.275	4.47	12.0%	6.7%	49	+1.02	3.23	490	51
Toru Murata R 2016 · 3.63 FIP	31	SW	3.63	12.9%	5.7%	1.6%	.288	—	—	—	—	—	3.63	267	51
Aquilino López R 2008 · 3.70 FIP	33	SU	3.70	17.7%	5.2%	2.6%	.301	—	—	—	—	—	3.10	207	51
Angel Castro R 2016 · 5.42 FIP	33	SW	5.42	12.3%	9.1%	4.0%	.304	3.51	14.5%	7.1%	139	-1.91	3.51	292	51
Scott McGough R 2023 · 4.57 FIP	33	SU	4.57	28.6%	9.3%	4.9%	.266	4.23	19.4%	9.4%	126	-0.34	3.55	429	51
Huascar Brazobán R 2023 · 3.52 FIP	33	SU	3.52	25.3%	11.3%	2.1%	.304	3.54	21.9%	11.8%	195	+0.02	3.08	370	50
Yoshihisa Hirano R 2018 · 3.45 FIP	34	SU	3.45	22.5%	7.3%	2.4%	.242	3.97	24.6%	15.2%	65	+0.52	3.45	132	50
Blake Parker R 2018 · 4.12 FIP	33	SU	4.12	25.4%	6.5%	4.3%	.290	4.12	24.9%	16.5%	121	+0.00	2.52	406	50
Jim Miller R 2015 · 3.95 FIP	33	SU	3.95	18.8%	4.1%	3.5%	.275	5.43	20.4%	6.3%	17	+1.48	3.95	140	49
Preston Guilmet R 2019 · 4.26 FIP	32	SU	4.26	26.6%	6.1%	4.8%	.328	4.17	28.6%	22.0%	52	-0.09	2.31	288	49
Shawn Camp R 2009 · 3.73 FIP	33	SU	3.73	17.4%	7.5%	2.1%	.272	3.57	14.4%	9.7%	216	-0.16	2.79	589	48
Pete Walker R 2002 · 4.59 FIP	33	SP-	4.59	13.4%	7.7%	3.0%	.279	5.16	12.0%	2.8%	139	+0.57	4.45	327	48

Career Comps

Completed MLB careers (no pro action in 2+ yrs) whose totals — actual + projected — most resemble this player's. Pool: 465 starter careers (1990-2024).

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	2.4	119	22.4%	10.1%	1.51	4.98
James Kaprielian ('23)	1.6	106	20.5%	9.7%	1.30	4.61
Robert Person ('03)	4.5	128	19.8%	11.2%	1.29	4.64
Nate Karns ('19)	1.6	105	24.0%	9.3%	1.34	4.30
Rubby De La Rosa ('17)	2.1	105	19.6%	8.6%	1.32	4.49
Zack Godley ('21)	2.8	95	22.1%	9.6%	1.16	4.92
Kevin Foster ('01)	2.5	127	18.9%	10.0%	1.55	4.86