Josh Taylor prospect projection, MLE, ETA

Josh Taylor P Omaha Storm Chasers

Age 33 LHP 6'5" / 245 lbs AAA peak 0.1 · 2026

2026 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONpark-neutral Marcel · 146 proj IP

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 96104vR 112

ERA4.07

FIP4.16

K%26.4%

BB%8.8%

K-BB%17.6%

ROS IP146

Value2026 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 146 IP

Grades · Statcast · Arsenal · Contract

Scouting Grades

STUF6565

CTRL4545

CMD6565

K†6060

Statcast Percentiles

FB Velo

p2692.8

Whiff%

p8030.0%

p9031.3%

xwOBA vs

p330.332

SL-2.5

FB-3.1

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2026 so far)
2015	22	A MLE	Kane County Cougars	24	24	127	555	123	44	8	100%	5.3	16.4%	9.4%	7.0%	2.1%	3.96	4.07	—
2015	22	A RAW	Kane County Cougars	24	24	127	555	123	44	8	100%	5.3	22.2%	7.9%	14.2%	1.4%	3.96	3.02	—
2016	23	MIX MLE	2 levels	26	24	133	587	123	42	11	92%	5.1	16.4%	8.1%	8.4%	2.0%	5.36	3.84	—
2016	23	MIX RAW	2 levels	26	24	133	587	123	42	11	92%	5.1	21.0%	7.2%	13.8%	1.9%	5.36	3.27	—
2017	24	MIX MLE	2 levels	34	14	98	439	92	46	7	41%	2.9	16.9%	11.6%	5.3%	2.0%	4.96	4.22	—
2017	24	MIX RAW	2 levels	34	14	98	439	92	46	7	41%	2.9	21.0%	10.5%	10.5%	1.6%	4.96	3.56	—
2018	25	MIX MLE	3 levels	48	0	54	244	60	22	2	0%	1.1	19.1%	10.3%	8.8%	1.0%	3.35	3.31	—
2018	25	MIX RAW	3 levels	48	0	54	244	60	22	2	0%	1.1	24.6%	9.0%	15.6%	0.8%	3.35	2.58	—
2019	26	MIX MLE	2 levels	72	1	71	291	94	26	7	1%	1.0	31.0%	9.1%	21.9%	2.5%	2.93	3.01	+1.3
2019	26	MIX RAW	2 levels	72	1	71	291	94	26	7	1%	1.0	32.3%	8.9%	23.4%	2.4%	2.93	2.83	+1.5
2020	27	MLB MLE	Boston Red Sox	8	0	7	36	7	5	2	0%	0.9	19.4%	13.9%	5.6%	5.6%	9.82	6.27	-0.1
2020	27	MLB RAW	Boston Red Sox	8	0	7	36	7	5	2	0%	0.9	19.4%	13.9%	5.6%	5.6%	9.82	6.78	-0.2
2021	28	MLB MLE	Boston Red Sox	61	0	48	209	60	20	2	0%	0.8	28.7%	9.6%	19.1%	1.0%	3.40	2.43	+1.2
2021	28	MLB RAW	Boston Red Sox	61	0	48	209	60	20	2	0%	0.8	28.7%	9.6%	19.1%	1.0%	3.40	2.39	+1.2
2022	29	MIX MLE	2 levels	13	7	12	57	12	3	3	54%	0.9	21.1%	5.3%	15.8%	5.3%	6.00	4.88	—
2022	29	MIX RAW	2 levels	13	7	12	57	12	3	3	54%	0.9	21.1%	5.3%	15.8%	5.3%	6.00	5.10	—
2023	30	MIX MLE	2 levels	22	1	23	108	31	9	5	5%	1.0	31.3%	9.6%	21.7%	5.2%	7.83	4.54	+0.0
2023	30	MIX MLE	2 levels	22	1	23	108	31	9	5	5%	1.0	31.3%	9.6%	21.7%	5.2%	7.83	4.54	+0.0
2023	30	MIX RAW	2 levels	22	1	23	108	31	9	5	5%	1.0	28.7%	8.3%	20.4%	4.6%	7.83	4.40	+0.0
2024	31	MIX MLE	2 levels	6	0	6	28	3	3	1	0%	0.9	10.7%	10.7%	0.0%	3.6%	7.94	5.51	—
2024	31	MIX MLE	2 levels	6	0	6	28	3	3	1	0%	0.9	10.7%	10.7%	0.0%	3.6%	7.94	5.51	—
2024	31	MIX RAW	2 levels	6	0	6	28	3	3	1	0%	0.9	10.7%	10.7%	0.0%	3.6%	7.94	5.92	—
▸ Career totals (raw MLB only — as recorded)
MLB Career	—			138	2	120	522	155	48	13	1%	0.9	29.7%	9.2%	20.5%	2.5%	4.35	3.12	+2.0
▸ 2026 season — projected remainder (no 2026 stats recorded)
2026	33	MLB	KC	—	—	0	—	—	—	—	—	—	26.4%	8.8%	17.6%	3.3%	4.07	4.16	—
▸ Career projection (2027+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2027	34	MLB MLE	KC	132	0	139	587	150	54	21	0%	1.1	25.5%	9.3%	16.2%	3.6%	4.31	4.46	+0.1
2028	35	MLB MLE	KC	119	0	125	527	129	52	21	0%	1.0	24.5%	9.8%	14.7%	3.9%	4.60	4.80	-0.4
2027	34	MLB CTX	KC	—	—	0	—	—	—	—	—	—	25.5%	9.3%	16.2%	3.6%	4.31	4.46	—
2028	35	MLB CTX	KC	—	—	0	—	—	—	—	—	—	24.5%	9.8%	14.7%	3.9%	4.60	4.80	—
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		138	2	120	522	155	48	13	1%	0.9	29.7%	9.2%	20.5%	2.5%	4.35	3.12	+2.0
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		230	3	200	870	258	80	22	1%	0.9	29.7%	9.2%	20.5%	2.5%	4.35	3.12	+3.4
Career	—	MLE		314	71	578	2554	514	243	55	23%	1.8	20.1%	9.5%	10.6%	2.2%	4.53	3.80	+1.8
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		109	25	200	884	178	84	19	23%	1.8	20.1%	9.5%	10.6%	2.2%	4.53	3.80	+0.9

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Josh Taylor (OGILVIE)	—	—	4.16	26.4%	8.8%	3.3%	—	4.62	25.0%	15.5%	264	+0.46	—	—	—
Hisanori Takahashi L 2010 · 3.50 FIP	35	SW	3.50	22.1%	7.0%	2.5%	.292	3.81	21.1%	15.0%	118	+0.31	3.50	240	82
Brandon Mann L 2017 · 4.24 FIP	33	SU	4.24	19.8%	11.3%	2.5%	.286	3.59	17.8%	6.4%	52	-0.65	3.59	190	60
Hideki Okajima L 2009 · 3.95 FIP	33	SU	3.95	20.5%	7.0%	3.1%	.268	4.27	15.5%	8.5%	46	+0.32	3.05	238	56
Luke Westphal L 2022 · 4.35 FIP	33	SW	4.35	24.2%	13.4%	2.9%	.302	5.19	15.7%	-0.7%	26	+0.84	2.97	294	54
Brian Moran L 2022 · 4.20 FIP	33	SU	4.20	21.7%	7.0%	3.7%	.304	3.72	21.5%	14.5%	152	-0.48	1.80	421	54
Alejandro Soto L 2019 · 4.03 FIP	33	SW	4.03	17.1%	6.9%	2.7%	.376	—	—	—	—	—	3.96	280	52
Doug Creek L 2002 · 4.99 FIP	33	SU	4.99	21.4%	12.6%	3.8%	.288	5.79	17.1%	7.9%	36	+0.80	4.48	277	51
Chris Narveson L 2015 · 4.79 FIP	33	SW	4.79	23.6%	8.0%	4.9%	.333	4.59	14.1%	4.5%	193	-0.20	4.00	625	51
Tom Martin L 2003 · 3.82 FIP	33	SU	3.82	24.3%	9.5%	2.9%	.226	3.99	16.2%	8.6%	106	+0.17	3.40	303	49
Ryan O'Rourke L 2019 · 4.08 FIP	31	SU	4.08	22.1%	14.3%	1.9%	.290	—	—	—	—	—	3.05	145	49
Juan Pablo Perez L 2013 · 3.68 FIP	34	SU	3.68	25.2%	11.5%	2.3%	.250	3.68	26.5%	11.2%	51	-0.00	1.75	104	48
Pedro Borbón L 2001 · 3.90 FIP	33	SU	3.90	20.7%	4.1%	3.7%	.258	4.57	21.6%	14.3%	50	+0.67	2.26	264	48
Tim Byrdak L 2007 · 3.25 FIP	33	SU	3.25	24.6%	11.1%	1.5%	.280	4.96	20.1%	7.6%	155	+1.71	2.85	320	48
Joey Eischen L 2003 · 4.00 FIP	33	SU	4.00	18.1%	5.4%	3.2%	.309	3.44	19.6%	10.3%	69	-0.56	2.13	294	47
Jamie Walker L 2004 · 3.48 FIP	33	SU	3.48	19.1%	3.2%	2.9%	.295	3.83	16.3%	12.1%	158	+0.35	3.48	442	47
Colt Hynes L 2017 · 3.75 FIP	32	SW	3.75	14.1%	4.6%	2.3%	.306	—	—	—	—	—	3.42	169	47
Scott Sauerbeck L 2005 · 3.75 FIP	33	SU	3.75	22.3%	8.9%	2.5%	.298	5.05	14.0%	0.0%	25	+1.30	2.79	386	46
Zach Phillips L 2019 · 3.67 FIP	32	SU	3.67	19.1%	8.5%	2.0%	.355	—	—	—	—	—	2.33	202	45
Adam Liberatore L 2018 · 4.28 FIP	31	SU	4.28	18.6%	9.1%	2.9%	.354	—	—	—	—	—	2.38	124	43
Micah Bowie L 2007 · 4.60 FIP	32	SW	4.60	16.9%	10.9%	2.8%	.279	—	—	—	—	—	3.78	140	43

Career Comps

Completed MLB careers (no pro action in 2+ yrs) whose totals — actual + projected — most resemble this player's. Pool: 1,179 pitcher careers (1990-2024).

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	2.7	107	26.5%	9.4%	1.29	4.32
Brad Peacock ('21)	2.8	93	24.7%	10.1%	1.27	4.11
Félix Peña ('21)	1.3	65	23.9%	8.5%	1.35	4.66
Scott Sanders ('99)	3.4	97	21.2%	9.3%	1.23	4.86
Dinelson Lamet ('24)	1.8	61	29.9%	10.7%	1.30	4.63
Noé Ramirez ('22)	1.5	59	24.8%	9.4%	1.42	4.21
Junior Guerra ('21)	2.5	85	21.2%	10.9%	1.17	4.06