Devin Smeltzer

P Toledo Mud Hens

Age 31 LHP 6'3" / 195 lbs AAA

Overview

AAARP

Year	Age	Lvl / Team	G	GS	IP	ERA	FIP	K%	BB%	WAR	MLE rates
2023	27	MIX2 levels	29	21	108	6.40	6.19	17.4%	10.5%	-1.6	K 15.4% · BB 9.6% · FIP 6.20
2024	28	AAAMIA	24	0	32	3.69	4.77	22.9%	9.3%	—	K 19.7% · BB 8.4% · FIP 5.29
2025	29	AAADET	3	3	11	8.44	3.19	13.5%	9.6%	—	K 11.6% · BB 8.7% · FIP 3.22
2027PROJ	31	MLBDET	26	26	165	4.37	4.52	20.1%	8.6%	0.7
2028PROJ37% MLB	32	MLBDET	9	9	56	4.61	4.78	19.2%	9.0%	0.1
2029PROJ55% MLB	33	MLBDET	12	12	77	4.88	5.06	18.4%	9.4%	-0.1

Last 3 seasons WAR -1.6 · Next 3 projected WAR 0.7Projected rows: MLB playing time only, park and league context applied.

Contract

No contract data on file.

Skills · percentileStatcast 2023

FB Velo10

Whiff%10

K%10

xwOBA vs10

CompsRyan Verdugo (age 30) · Joey Lucchesi (age 31) · Everett Teaford (age 31)

2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONrates below = full-season projection

showingPROJ

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 103111vR 119

ERA4.37

FIP4.52

K%20.1%

BB%8.6%

K-BB%11.5%

Proj IP165

Value2027 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 165 IP

Grades · Statcast · Arsenal · Contract

Scouting Grades

OFP—40

STUF5560

CTRL6060

CMD5055

K†5050

Statcast Percentiles

FB Velo

p1089.0

Whiff%

p1019.3%

p1016.0%

xwOBA vs

p100.409

CT+0.6

CH-1.6

FB-2.3

SL-4.1

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2027 so far)
2016	20	ROK MLE	AZL Dodgers	11	0	11	52	12	5	0	0%	1.0	15.7%	12.0%	3.7%	0.0%	7.59	3.30	—
2016	20	ROK RAW	AZL Dodgers	11	0	11	52	12	5	0	0%	1.0	23.1%	9.6%	13.5%	0.0%	7.59	2.26	—
2017	21	MIX MLE	2 levels	26	25	142	601	159	30	16	96%	5.5	20.1%	5.8%	14.3%	3.3%	4.17	3.92	—
2017	21	MIX RAW	2 levels	26	25	142	601	159	30	16	96%	5.5	26.5%	5.0%	21.5%	2.7%	4.17	2.96	—
2018	22	AA MLE	Chattanooga Lookouts	33	14	96	420	83	20	9	42%	2.9	16.0%	5.2%	10.8%	2.6%	4.52	3.86	—
2018	22	AA RAW	Chattanooga Lookouts	33	14	96	420	83	20	9	42%	2.9	19.8%	4.8%	15.0%	2.1%	4.52	3.21	—
2019	23	MIX MLE	3 levels	31	25	153	616	142	34	22	81%	4.9	20.7%	5.7%	14.9%	3.9%	3.11	4.22	+1.2
2019	23	MIX RAW	3 levels	31	25	153	616	142	34	22	81%	4.9	23.1%	5.5%	17.5%	3.6%	3.11	3.78	+2.1
2020	24	MLB MLE	Minnesota Twins	7	1	16	72	15	5	2	14%	2.3	20.8%	6.9%	13.9%	2.8%	6.75	3.74	+0.2
2020	24	MLB RAW	Minnesota Twins	7	1	16	72	15	5	2	14%	2.3	20.8%	6.9%	13.9%	2.8%	6.75	3.79	+0.1
2021	25	MLB MLE	Minnesota Twins	1	0	5	17	3	1	0	0%	4.7	17.6%	5.9%	11.8%	0.0%	0.00	2.35	+0.1
2021	25	MLB RAW	Minnesota Twins	1	0	5	17	3	1	0	0%	4.7	17.6%	5.9%	11.8%	0.0%	0.00	2.46	+0.1
2022	26	MIX MLE	2 levels	30	21	120	518	87	35	23	70%	4.0	15.7%	6.9%	8.8%	4.9%	5.31	5.34	-0.6
2022	26	MIX RAW	2 levels	30	21	120	518	87	35	23	70%	4.0	16.8%	6.8%	10.0%	4.4%	5.31	5.01	-0.2
2023	27	MIX MLE	2 levels	29	21	108	494	86	52	27	72%	3.7	15.4%	9.6%	5.9%	5.8%	6.40	6.20	-1.6
2023	27	MIX RAW	2 levels	29	21	108	494	86	52	27	72%	3.7	17.4%	10.5%	6.9%	5.5%	6.40	6.19	-1.6
2024	28	AAA MLE	Jacksonville Jumbo Shrimp	24	0	32	140	32	13	6	0%	1.3	19.7%	8.4%	11.3%	5.1%	3.69	5.29	—
2024	28	AAA MLE	Jacksonville Jumbo Shrimp	24	0	32	140	32	13	6	0%	1.3	19.7%	8.4%	11.3%	5.1%	3.69	5.29	—
2024	28	AAA RAW	Jacksonville Jumbo Shrimp	24	0	32	140	32	13	6	0%	1.3	22.9%	9.3%	13.6%	4.3%	3.69	4.77	—
2025	29	AAA MLE	Toledo Mud Hens	3	3	11	52	7	5	0	100%	3.6	11.6%	8.7%	2.9%	0.0%	8.44	3.22	—
2025	29	AAA MLE	Toledo Mud Hens	3	3	11	52	7	5	0	100%	3.6	11.6%	8.7%	2.9%	0.0%	8.44	3.22	—
2025	29	AAA RAW	Toledo Mud Hens	3	3	11	52	7	5	0	100%	3.6	13.5%	9.6%	3.8%	0.0%	8.44	3.19	—
▸ Career totals (raw MLB only — as recorded)
MLB Career	—			43	20	162	678	112	41	30	47%	3.8	16.5%	6.0%	10.5%	4.4%	4.32	4.88	-0.6
▸ 2027 season — projected remainder (no 2027 stats recorded)
2027	31	MLB	DET	26	26	165	697	140	60	21	100%	6.3	20.1%	8.6%	11.5%	3.0%	4.37	4.52	+0.7
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2028	32	MLB MLE	DET	24	24	153	644	124	58	21	100%	6.4	19.2%	9.0%	10.3%	3.3%	4.61	4.78	+0.2
2029	33	MLB MLE	DET	22	22	140	591	109	56	21	100%	6.4	18.4%	9.4%	9.0%	3.5%	4.88	5.06	-0.3
2028	32	MLB CTX	DET	9	9	56	236	46	21	8	100%	6.2	19.2%	9.0%	10.3%	3.3%	4.61	4.78	+0.1
2029	33	MLB CTX	DET	12	12	77	325	60	31	11	100%	6.4	18.4%	9.4%	9.0%	3.5%	4.88	5.06	-0.1
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		64	41	296	1241	218	93	49	64%	4.6	17.5%	7.5%	10.0%	4.0%	4.52	4.75	+0.5
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		43	28	200	839	147	63	33	64%	4.6	17.5%	7.5%	10.0%	4.0%	4.52	4.75	+0.4
Career	—	MLE		195	110	694	2982	532	204	118	56%	3.6	17.9%	6.8%	11.0%	4.0%	4.66	4.63	-0.0
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		56	32	200	860	154	59	34	56%	3.6	17.9%	6.8%	11.0%	4.0%	4.66	4.63	-0.0

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Devin Smeltzer (OGILVIE)	—	—	4.52	20.1%	8.6%	3.0%	—	4.91	18.8%	9.6%	293	+0.39	—	—	—
Ryan Verdugo L 2017 · 3.36 FIP	30	SP-	3.36	22.7%	5.4%	2.7%	.333	—	—	—	—	—	3.36	153	57
Joey Lucchesi L 2024 · 4.73 FIP	31	SP-	4.73	14.9%	10.1%	2.9%	.293	3.65	22.6%	15.8%	102	-1.08	3.12	817	56
Everett Teaford L 2015 · 4.42 FIP	31	SP-	4.42	13.9%	7.6%	2.8%	.324	—	—	—	—	—	4.42	208	54
Brian Tallet L 2009 · 4.45 FIP	31	SP-	4.45	16.7%	9.8%	2.8%	.294	6.14	14.7%	5.2%	91	+1.69	2.59	443	54
Santiago Gutierrez L 2017 · 3.95 FIP	31	SP-	3.95	15.0%	8.2%	2.0%	.366	6.54	17.1%	3.7%	46	+2.59	3.90	341	54
Sean Nolin L 2021 · 4.54 FIP	31	SP-	4.54	20.4%	8.9%	3.7%	.316	5.87	19.3%	12.9%	23	+1.33	3.79	309	54
Chris Narveson L 2011 · 4.01 FIP	29	SP	4.01	18.0%	9.2%	2.3%	.291	—	—	—	—	—	4.00	625	52
Anthony Vasquez L 2018 · 4.64 FIP	31	SW	4.64	17.1%	8.9%	3.4%	.322	6.00	14.6%	7.3%	85	+1.36	4.02	671	50
Greg Smith L 2015 · 3.37 FIP	31	SP-	3.37	11.8%	5.3%	1.1%	.284	—	—	—	—	—	3.37	349	49
Jorge Castillo L 2015 · 4.50 FIP	33	SP	4.50	16.8%	9.2%	3.0%	.292	4.95	12.4%	7.2%	186	+0.45	4.50	408	49
Tomas Solis L 2015 · 4.20 FIP	32	SP	4.20	15.0%	6.2%	2.9%	.264	5.09	12.0%	3.7%	159	+0.89	4.20	327	48
Arturo Lopez L 2015 · 4.80 FIP	32	SP	4.80	13.7%	6.2%	3.8%	.301	4.80	10.9%	4.2%	217	+0.00	4.34	445	48
Luke Westphal L 2021 · 4.70 FIP	32	SP-	4.70	22.7%	13.1%	3.4%	.321	4.58	21.9%	7.6%	95	-0.12	2.97	294	46
Chris Capuano L 2010 · 4.06 FIP	31	SW	4.06	19.4%	7.2%	3.1%	.287	3.77	19.8%	14.1%	490	-0.29	3.40	1,458	46
Alejandro Astorga L 2017 · 4.01 FIP	30	SP	4.01	14.4%	8.2%	2.0%	.306	—	—	—	—	—	3.72	311	46
Tsuyoshi Wada L 2014 · 3.60 FIP	33	SP	3.60	19.7%	6.2%	2.5%	.290	3.66	16.8%	9.7%	119	+0.06	3.60	188	45
Irwin Delgado L 2019 · 4.73 FIP	30	SP	4.73	15.6%	9.5%	3.2%	.404	—	—	—	—	—	3.52	383	45
Edgar Osuna L 2019 · 5.09 FIP	31	SW	5.09	10.0%	7.2%	3.5%	.373	—	—	—	—	—	5.05	175	45
Oscar Rivera L 2015 · 3.68 FIP	34	SP	3.68	14.2%	6.9%	1.7%	.298	4.66	10.4%	3.0%	129	+0.98	3.68	237	45
Roy Merritt L 2017 · 3.95 FIP	31	SP	3.95	16.2%	5.8%	2.7%	.339	—	—	—	—	—	3.93	129	43

Career Comps

Completed MLB careers (no pro action in 2+ yrs) whose totals — actual + projected — most resemble this player's. Pool: 1,853 starter careers (497 from 1990-2025 + 1,356 historical, 1901-2023), also matched on career-to-date at the same age. * Historical (Lahman) careers: rates era-adjusted to 2001-24 league levels; WAR is an OGILVIE proxy.

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	3.1	103	18.6%	8.2%	1.37	4.53
Ray Phelps ('30-'36, 2 WAR*)	3.0	120	17.3%*	8.7%*	1.39*	4.70*
Daniel Mengden ('22)	1.5	77	17.5%	7.8%	1.25	4.65
Brent Strom ('72-'77, 0 WAR*)	2.5	125	19.3%*	8.2%*	1.53*	4.78*
Eddie Stack ('10-'14, 2 WAR*)	2.5	123	19.1%*	9.2%*	1.24*	4.60*
Rubby De La Rosa ('17)	2.1	105	19.6%	8.6%	1.32	4.49
James Kaprielian ('23)	1.6	106	20.5%	9.7%	1.30	4.61