David Peterson

P Chicago Cubs

Age 31 LHP 6'6" / 240 lbs MLB Svc 5.0 · Ctrl thru 2027 peak 2.1 · 2027

Overview

MLBSP40-MANArb-3FA 2028

Year	Age	Lvl / Team	G	GS	IP	ERA	FIP	K%	BB%	WAR	MLE rates
2024	28	MIX4 levels	27	27	145	2.61	2.95	22.6%	8.1%	3.5	K 19.8% · BB 9.0% · FIP 3.43
2025	29	MLBNYM	30	30	169	4.22	3.31	20.7%	8.9%	3.3
2026	30	MLBCHC	32	23	148	4.79	3.88	20.7%	9.8%	1.8
2027PROJ	31	MLBCHC	24	24	141	4.17	4.19	20.2%	9.4%	1.2
2028PROJ	32	MLBCHC	22	22	131	4.29	4.40	19.4%	9.8%	0.7
2029PROJ	33	MLBCHC	20	20	120	4.51	4.67	18.5%	10.3%	0.2

Last 3 seasons WAR 8.6 · Next 3 projected WAR 2.1Projected rows: MLB playing time only, park and league context applied.

ContractESTIMATED

Control thru2027Service5.517First FA2028

2027Arb-3$10M

Skills · percentileStatcast 2026

K%40

Whiff%32

xwOBA vs32

FB Velo22

CompsChris Narveson (age 29) · Wandy Rodriguez (age 31) · Mark Hendrickson (age 31)

2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONrates below = full-season projection

showingPROJ

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 99107vR 115

ERA4.17

FIP4.19

K%20.2%

BB%9.4%

K-BB%10.8%

Proj IP141

Value2027 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 141 IP

Grades · Statcast · Arsenal · Contract

Scouting Grades

STUF5555

CTRL5050

CMD4545

K†5050

Statcast Percentiles

FB Velo

p2292.5

Whiff%

p3222.7%

p4020.7%

xwOBA vs

p320.333

SL+3.9 (22%)

SI (29%)

CU (10%)

CH-1.5 (13%)

FB-4.8 (55%)

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status Arb-3

MLB Debut 2020

Service 5.517 yrs.days

Team Control Through 2027

First FA Year 2028

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2027	Arb-3	$10M	+1.2	$10M	+$0.0M (cut)
Totals		$0.0M		$10M	+$0.0M

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2027 so far)
2018	22	MIX MLE	2 levels	22	22	128	533	115	30	2	100%	5.8	16.3%	6.5%	9.8%	0.5%	3.16	2.81	—
2018	22	MIX RAW	2 levels	22	22	128	533	115	30	2	100%	5.8	21.6%	5.6%	15.9%	0.4%	3.16	2.21	—
2019	23	AA MLE	Binghamton Rumble Ponies	24	24	116	498	122	37	9	100%	4.8	19.8%	8.2%	11.7%	2.1%	4.19	3.64	—
2019	23	AA RAW	Binghamton Rumble Ponies	24	24	116	498	122	37	9	100%	4.8	24.5%	7.4%	17.1%	1.8%	4.19	2.96	—
2020	24	MLB MLE	New York Mets	10	9	50	205	40	24	5	90%	5.0	19.5%	11.7%	7.8%	2.4%	3.44	4.28	+0.4
2020	24	MLB RAW	New York Mets	10	9	50	205	40	24	5	90%	5.0	19.5%	11.7%	7.8%	2.4%	3.44	4.25	+0.4
2021	25	MLB MLE	New York Mets	15	15	67	287	69	29	11	100%	4.4	24.0%	10.1%	13.9%	3.8%	5.53	4.46	+0.3
2021	25	MLB RAW	New York Mets	15	15	67	287	69	29	11	100%	4.4	24.0%	10.1%	13.9%	3.8%	5.53	4.48	+0.3
2022	26	MIX MLE	2 levels	34	25	132	573	160	57	12	74%	3.9	27.2%	10.0%	17.2%	2.1%	4.03	3.23	+2.7
2022	26	MIX RAW	2 levels	34	25	132	573	160	57	12	74%	3.9	27.9%	9.9%	18.0%	2.1%	4.03	3.15	+2.8
2023	27	MIX MLE	2 levels	34	28	148	658	171	73	21	82%	4.4	25.1%	10.7%	14.3%	3.3%	4.99	4.14	+1.3
2023	27	MIX RAW	2 levels	34	28	148	658	171	73	21	82%	4.4	26.0%	11.1%	14.9%	3.2%	4.99	4.11	+1.4
2024	28	MIX MLE	4 levels	27	27	145	603	136	49	8	100%	5.4	19.8%	9.0%	10.8%	1.6%	2.61	3.43	+2.6
2024	28	MIX MLE	4 levels	27	27	145	603	136	49	8	100%	5.4	19.8%	9.0%	10.8%	1.6%	2.61	3.43	+2.6
2024	28	MIX RAW	4 levels	27	27	145	603	136	49	8	100%	5.4	22.6%	8.1%	14.4%	1.3%	2.61	2.95	+3.5
2025	29	MLB MLE	New York Mets	30	30	169	723	150	64	11	100%	5.6	20.7%	8.9%	11.9%	1.5%	4.22	3.31	+3.3
2025	29	MLB MLE	New York Mets	30	30	169	723	150	64	11	100%	5.6	20.7%	8.9%	11.9%	1.5%	4.22	3.31	+3.3
2025	29	MLB RAW	New York Mets	30	30	169	723	150	64	11	100%	5.6	20.7%	8.9%	11.9%	1.5%	4.22	3.31	+3.3
2026	30	MLB MLE	Chicago Cubs	32	23	148	663	137	65	15	72%	4.6	20.7%	9.8%	10.9%	2.4%	4.79	3.89	+1.8
2026	30	MLB MLE	Chicago Cubs	32	23	148	663	137	65	15	72%	4.6	20.7%	9.8%	10.9%	2.4%	4.79	3.89	+1.8
2026	30	MLB RAW	Chicago Cubs	32	23	148	663	137	65	15	72%	4.6	20.7%	9.8%	10.9%	2.3%	4.79	3.88	+1.8
▸ Career totals (raw MLB only — as recorded)
MLB Career	—			163	138	771	3334	751	325	77	85%	4.7	22.5%	9.7%	12.8%	2.3%	4.25	3.71	+11.0
▸ 2027 season — projected remainder (no 2027 stats recorded)
2027	31	MLB	CHC	24	24	141	595	120	56	13	100%	5.9	20.2%	9.4%	10.8%	2.2%	4.17	4.19	+1.2
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2028	32	MLB MLE	CHC	22	22	131	551	107	54	14	100%	5.9	19.4%	9.8%	9.5%	2.5%	4.34	4.45	+0.7
2029	33	MLB MLE	CHC	20	20	120	506	94	52	14	100%	6.0	18.5%	10.3%	8.2%	2.8%	4.57	4.73	+0.2
2030	34	MLB MLE	CHC	18	18	109	460	81	50	14	100%	6.1	17.6%	10.8%	6.9%	3.1%	4.85	5.03	-0.2
2028	32	MLB CTX	CHC	22	22	131	553	107	54	13	100%	6.0	19.4%	9.8%	9.5%	2.4%	4.29	4.40	+0.7
2029	33	MLB CTX	CHC	20	20	120	507	94	52	13	100%	6.0	18.5%	10.3%	8.2%	2.6%	4.51	4.67	+0.2
2030	34	MLB CTX	CHC	18	18	109	460	81	50	14	100%	6.1	17.6%	10.8%	6.9%	2.9%	4.79	4.97	-0.2
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		223	198	1130	4851	1033	481	117	89%	5.1	21.3%	9.9%	11.4%	2.4%	4.33	3.88	+13.8
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		39	35	200	858	183	85	21	89%	5.1	21.3%	9.9%	11.4%	2.4%	4.33	3.88	+2.4
Career	—	MLE		228	203	1102	4743	1022	440	99	89%	4.8	21.5%	9.3%	12.3%	2.1%	4.08	3.60	+11.6
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		41	37	200	861	186	80	18	89%	4.8	21.5%	9.3%	12.3%	2.1%	4.08	3.60	+2.1

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
David Peterson (OGILVIE)	—	—	4.19	20.2%	9.4%	2.2%	—	4.72	18.6%	8.3%	359	+0.53	—	—	—
Chris Narveson L 2011 · 4.01 FIP	29	SP	4.01	18.0%	9.2%	2.3%	.291	—	—	—	—	—	4.00	625	67
Wandy Rodriguez L 2010 · 3.37 FIP	31	SP	3.37	21.7%	7.9%	2.0%	.297	4.06	18.1%	11.6%	459	+0.69	3.37	1,572	63
Mark Hendrickson L 2005 · 4.57 FIP	31	SP	4.57	11.2%	6.0%	3.0%	.320	4.19	14.8%	7.9%	421	-0.38	3.04	1,169	63
Kaz Ishii L 2005 · 5.23 FIP	31	SP	5.23	13.3%	11.5%	3.3%	.258	—	—	—	—	—	4.51	564	59
Wei-Yin Chen L 2016 · 4.51 FIP	31	SP	4.51	19.2%	4.6%	4.5%	.299	4.37	19.6%	13.1%	235	-0.14	3.63	1,065	57
Tyler Anderson L 2021 · 4.30 FIP	31	SP	4.30	19.1%	5.1%	3.9%	.283	3.96	19.0%	11.1%	499	-0.34	3.10	1,288	56
Brian Tallet L 2009 · 4.45 FIP	31	SP-	4.45	16.7%	9.8%	2.8%	.294	6.14	14.7%	5.2%	91	+1.69	2.59	443	54
Yohan Flande L 2017 · 3.18 FIP	31	SP	3.18	15.9%	6.4%	1.1%	.346	4.21	10.0%	-1.9%	23	+1.03	3.18	394	52
Jorge Castillo L 2015 · 4.50 FIP	33	SP	4.50	16.8%	9.2%	3.0%	.292	4.95	12.4%	7.2%	186	+0.45	4.50	408	49
Tomas Solis L 2015 · 4.20 FIP	32	SP	4.20	15.0%	6.2%	2.9%	.264	5.09	12.0%	3.7%	159	+0.89	4.20	327	47
Alejandro Astorga L 2017 · 4.01 FIP	30	SP	4.01	14.4%	8.2%	2.0%	.306	—	—	—	—	—	3.72	311	47
Oscar Rivera L 2015 · 3.68 FIP	34	SP	3.68	14.2%	6.9%	1.7%	.298	4.66	10.4%	3.0%	129	+0.98	3.68	237	46
Paul Oseguera L 2015 · 3.83 FIP	31	SP	3.83	17.6%	8.5%	2.1%	.297	5.62	5.6%	-6.9%	28	+1.79	3.83	162	46
Arturo Lopez L 2015 · 4.80 FIP	32	SP	4.80	13.7%	6.2%	3.8%	.301	4.80	10.9%	4.2%	217	+0.00	4.34	445	46
Everett Teaford L 2015 · 4.42 FIP	31	SP-	4.42	13.9%	7.6%	2.8%	.324	—	—	—	—	—	4.42	208	44
Daniel Rodriguez L 2016 · 4.46 FIP	31	SP	4.46	19.3%	11.1%	2.9%	.333	4.32	16.9%	8.2%	226	-0.14	2.89	391	44
Joey Lucchesi L 2024 · 4.73 FIP	31	SP-	4.73	14.9%	10.1%	2.9%	.293	3.65	22.6%	15.8%	102	-1.08	3.12	817	44
Roy Merritt L 2017 · 3.95 FIP	31	SP	3.95	16.2%	5.8%	2.7%	.339	—	—	—	—	—	3.93	129	43
Orlando Lara L 2016 · 3.85 FIP	31	SP	3.85	13.8%	7.4%	1.8%	.308	4.24	18.5%	11.3%	202	+0.39	3.85	426	43
Yusei Kikuchi L 2022 · 5.19 FIP	31	SP-	5.19	27.3%	12.8%	5.1%	.281	3.78	25.4%	18.1%	522	-1.41	3.23	1,056	43

Career Comps

Completed MLB careers (no pro action in 2+ yrs) whose totals — actual + projected — most resemble this player's. Pool: 1,853 starter careers (497 from 1990-2025 + 1,356 historical, 1901-2023), also matched on career-to-date at the same age. * Historical (Lahman) careers: rates era-adjusted to 2001-24 league levels; WAR is an OGILVIE proxy.

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	6.4	116	21.2%	9.9%	0.94	4.33
David Palmer ('78-'89, 12 WAR*)	5.4	136	21.5%*	9.3%*	0.96*	4.30*
Daisuke Matsuzaka ('14)	4.0	99	20.9%	11.2%	0.97	4.45
Ken McBride ('59-'65, 7 WAR*)	4.0	135	19.7%*	10.0%*	0.98*	4.29*
Bart Johnson ('69-'77, 6 WAR*)	4.0	116	21.6%*	9.7%*	0.97*	4.47*
Danny Duffy ('21)	5.9	107	21.1%	8.7%	1.11	3.95
Tyson Ross ('19)	4.5	101	21.2%	10.1%	0.73	4.04