Nicholas Padilla

P Lehigh Valley IronPigs

Age 30 RHP 6'2" / 220 lbs AAA

Overview

AAARPROOKIE

Year	Age	Lvl / Team	G	GS	IP	ERA	FIP	K%	BB%	WAR	MLE rates
2023	26	MIX2 levels	47	0	50	5.54	4.53	24.6%	15.6%	0.0	K 21.0% · BB 15.1% · FIP 4.42
2024	27	MIX3 levels	29	0	37	2.92	4.07	30.3%	13.8%	—	K 25.3% · BB 11.4% · FIP 4.77
2025	28	AAAPHI	34	2	42	5.10	4.45	21.6%	15.3%	—	K 18.6% · BB 13.7% · FIP 4.61
2027PROJ	30	MLBPHI	55	0	58	5.32	5.32	19.6%	14.7%	-0.5
2028PROJ37% MLB	31	MLBPHI	19	0	20	5.34	5.42	19.5%	14.5%	-0.2
2029PROJ55% MLB	32	MLBPHI	26	0	27	5.44	5.56	19.4%	14.5%	-0.3

Last 3 seasons WAR 0.0 · Next 3 projected WAR -1.0Projected rows: MLB playing time only, park and league context applied.

Contract

No contract data on file.

Scouting grades · 20-80

Stuff45Control30Command35

CompsWirfin Obispo (age 30) · Jim Miller (age 30) · Esteban Haro (age 30)

2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONrates below = full-season projection

showingPROJ

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 134126vR 118

ERA5.32

FIP5.32

K%19.6%

BB%14.7%

K-BB%4.8%

Proj IP58

Value2027 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 58 IP

Grades · Arsenal · Contract

Scouting Grades

STUF4545

CTRL3030

CMD3535

K†4545

FB+0.5

SL-2.6

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2027 so far)
2016	19	ROK MLE	GCL Rays	8	8	22	96	19	7	0	100%	2.8	13.5%	9.1%	4.3%	0.0%	2.01	3.12	—
2016	19	ROK RAW	GCL Rays	8	8	22	96	19	7	0	100%	2.8	19.8%	7.3%	12.5%	0.0%	2.01	2.34	—
2018	21	A MLE	Bowling Green Hot Rods	7	0	9	55	9	2	2	0%	1.3	12.1%	4.3%	7.8%	4.6%	9.00	5.12	—
2018	21	A RAW	Bowling Green Hot Rods	7	0	9	55	9	2	2	0%	1.3	16.4%	3.6%	12.7%	3.6%	9.00	4.66	—
2019	22	A MLE	Bowling Green Hot Rods	31	0	62	269	76	28	4	0%	2.0	20.9%	12.3%	8.6%	1.5%	3.48	3.73	—
2019	22	A RAW	Bowling Green Hot Rods	31	0	62	269	76	28	4	0%	2.0	28.3%	10.4%	17.8%	1.5%	3.48	2.84	—
2021	24	A+ MLE	South Bend Cubs	2	0	2	10	2	2	0	0%	0.8	20.0%	20.0%	0.0%	0.0%	16.20	3.94	—
2021	24	A+ RAW	South Bend Cubs	2	0	2	10	2	2	0	0%	0.8	20.0%	20.0%	0.0%	0.0%	16.20	4.30	—
2022	25	MIX MLE	4 levels	40	0	55	233	67	33	1	0%	1.4	22.0%	15.2%	6.8%	0.4%	2.30	3.40	+0.7
2022	25	MIX RAW	4 levels	40	0	55	233	67	33	1	0%	1.4	28.8%	14.2%	14.6%	0.4%	2.30	2.70	+1.2
2023	26	MIX MLE	2 levels	47	0	50	244	60	38	6	0%	1.1	21.0%	15.1%	5.9%	2.2%	5.54	4.42	+0.1
2023	26	MIX RAW	2 levels	47	0	50	244	60	38	6	0%	1.1	24.6%	15.6%	9.0%	2.5%	5.54	4.53	+0.0
2024	27	MIX MLE	3 levels	29	0	37	152	46	21	5	0%	1.3	25.3%	11.4%	13.8%	4.3%	2.92	4.77	—
2024	27	MIX MLE	3 levels	29	0	37	152	46	21	5	0%	1.3	25.3%	11.4%	13.8%	4.3%	2.92	4.77	—
2024	27	MIX RAW	3 levels	29	0	37	152	46	21	5	0%	1.3	30.3%	13.8%	16.4%	3.3%	2.92	4.07	—
2025	28	AAA MLE	Lehigh Valley IronPigs	34	2	42	190	41	29	4	6%	1.2	18.6%	13.7%	4.8%	2.4%	5.10	4.61	—
2025	28	AAA MLE	Lehigh Valley IronPigs	34	2	42	190	41	29	4	6%	1.2	18.6%	13.7%	4.8%	2.4%	5.10	4.61	—
2025	28	AAA RAW	Lehigh Valley IronPigs	34	2	42	190	41	29	4	6%	1.2	21.6%	15.3%	6.3%	2.1%	5.10	4.45	—
▸ Career totals (raw MLB only — as recorded)
MLB Career	—			4	0	6	32	7	3	1	0%	1.6	21.9%	9.4%	12.5%	3.1%	5.68	4.36	+0.0
▸ 2027 season — projected remainder (no 2027 stats recorded)
2027	30	MLB	PHI	55	0	58	245	48	36	7	0%	1.1	19.6%	14.7%	4.8%	3.0%	5.32	5.32	-0.5
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2028	31	MLB MLE	PHI	51	0	54	227	44	33	7	0%	1.1	19.5%	14.5%	5.0%	3.2%	5.34	5.42	-0.5
2029	32	MLB MLE	PHI	47	0	50	210	41	31	7	0%	1.1	19.4%	14.5%	4.8%	3.4%	5.44	5.56	-0.6
2028	31	MLB CTX	PHI	19	0	20	84	17	12	3	0%	1.1	19.5%	14.5%	5.0%	3.2%	5.34	5.42	-0.2
2029	32	MLB CTX	PHI	26	0	27	114	22	17	4	0%	1.0	19.4%	14.5%	4.8%	3.4%	5.44	5.56	-0.3
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		49	0	54	231	46	32	8	0%	1.1	19.8%	13.8%	6.0%	3.3%	5.43	4.99	-0.3
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		183	0	200	864	172	119	30	0%	1.1	19.8%	13.8%	6.0%	3.3%	5.43	4.99	-1.0
Career	—	MLE		198	10	279	1249	254	162	24	5%	1.4	20.3%	13.0%	7.4%	1.9%	3.93	4.08	-1.1
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		142	7	200	894	182	116	17	5%	1.4	20.3%	13.0%	7.4%	1.9%	3.93	4.08	-2.0

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Nicholas Padilla (OGILVIE)	—	—	5.32	19.6%	14.7%	3.0%	—	5.49	19.5%	4.9%	104	+0.17	—	—	—
Wirfin Obispo R 2015 · 4.80 FIP	30	SU	4.80	18.6%	12.2%	3.1%	.292	1.31	28.6%	24.5%	126	-3.49	1.30	218	78
Jim Miller R 2012 · 4.56 FIP	30	SU	4.56	20.9%	11.8%	3.1%	.243	3.95	18.8%	14.7%	74	-0.61	3.95	140	77
Esteban Haro R 2016 · 4.55 FIP	30	SU	4.55	17.1%	10.2%	2.9%	.338	3.83	11.6%	6.3%	75	-0.72	3.76	164	72
Wil Browning R 2017 · 4.44 FIP	28	SU	4.44	17.9%	13.1%	2.2%	.359	—	—	—	—	—	2.14	162	72
Erik Davis R 2017 · 4.25 FIP	30	SU	4.25	22.2%	11.1%	3.0%	.349	3.52	17.4%	8.5%	65	-0.73	3.05	227	71
Beck Wheeler R 2017 · 5.40 FIP	28	SU	5.40	15.3%	12.2%	3.7%	.347	—	—	—	—	—	3.46	173	71
Grant Black R 2023 · 5.49 FIP	29	SU	5.49	15.9%	11.3%	4.2%	.352	—	—	—	—	—	4.46	215	70
Angel Castro R 2015 · 4.50 FIP	32	SU	4.50	15.9%	8.0%	3.1%	.268	4.28	13.6%	5.5%	231	-0.22	3.51	292	69
Mike Broadway R 2017 · 4.73 FIP	30	SU	4.73	18.3%	10.2%	3.4%	.245	4.65	23.0%	12.4%	49	-0.08	1.74	195	68
Kyle Snyder R 2007 · 4.83 FIP	29	SU	4.83	16.9%	12.4%	2.9%	.232	—	—	—	—	—	3.80	236	68
Dalier Hinojosa R 2016 · 4.30 FIP	30	SU	4.30	18.7%	12.6%	2.2%	.329	—	—	—	—	—	3.41	104	67
Hector Velázquez R 2019 · 4.82 FIP	30	SW	4.82	19.6%	12.3%	3.3%	.292	3.81	19.2%	10.9%	25	-1.01	2.75	536	67
Javy Guerra R 2016 · 4.29 FIP	30	SU	4.29	21.3%	13.9%	2.3%	.303	3.95	19.5%	13.0%	193	-0.34	2.94	409	67
Ronald Peña R 2021 · 4.49 FIP	29	SU	4.49	16.5%	10.4%	2.7%	.288	—	—	—	—	—	3.72	187	67
Willie Eyre R 2007 · 4.53 FIP	29	SU	4.53	13.7%	9.1%	2.6%	.306	2.87	11.1%	5.5%	18	-1.66	2.87	164	66
Dennis Sarfate R 2009 · 4.81 FIP	28	SU	4.81	19.8%	13.9%	3.0%	.281	—	—	—	—	—	4.42	103	66
Edwar Ramirez R 2010 · 4.76 FIP	29	SU	4.76	18.5%	16.7%	2.0%	.235	—	—	—	—	—	3.66	109	66
Caleb Simpson R 2022 · 4.46 FIP	30	SU	4.46	19.7%	13.0%	2.5%	.316	8.65	11.5%	-17.0%	12	+4.19	3.57	197	66
James Meeker R 2024 · 4.43 FIP	29	SU	4.43	17.9%	10.4%	2.8%	.239	—	—	—	—	—	2.22	220	65
Taylor Williams R 2021 · 5.96 FIP	30	SU	5.96	19.9%	14.1%	5.0%	.261	3.79	18.8%	9.0%	101	-2.17	2.51	309	65

Career Comps

Completed MLB careers (no pro action in 2+ yrs) whose totals — actual + projected — most resemble this player's. Pool: 1,474 reliever careers (754 from 1990-2025 + 720 historical, 1901-2023), also matched on career-to-date at the same age. * Historical (Lahman) careers: rates era-adjusted to 2001-24 league levels; WAR is an OGILVIE proxy.

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	0.8	56	19.6%	14.4%	1.23	5.38
Richie Lewis ('98)	1.5	59	18.1%	14.1%	1.38	4.88
Matt Anderson ('05)	1.3	51	19.3%	13.5%	1.05	5.19
Doug Creek ('05)	1.4	58	22.2%	15.1%	1.52	5.32
Ron Piche ('60-'66, -3 WAR*)	1.1	44	20.6%*	12.8%*	1.14*	5.06*
Dwayne Henry ('84-'95, -1 WAR*)	1.7	67	23.8%*	14.2%*	0.90*	5.02*
Gene Harris ('89-'95, -1 WAR*)	1.2	40	20.0%*	12.5%*	0.98*	4.96*