Nicholas Padilla
P
Lehigh Valley IronPigs
Age 29
RHP
6'2" / 220 lbs
AAA
2026 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONpark-neutral Marcel · 58 proj IP
wRC+ AGAINSTvL 144135vR 125
ERA5.56
FIP5.56
K%20.3%
BB%17.2%
K-BB%3.2%
ROS IP58
Value2026 · WAR
Runs saved vs league avg · 58 IP
Grades · Arsenal · Contract
FB+0.5
SL-2.6
Contract
No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.
Career Stats + Projections
Viewactual = stats as recorded (seasons combined) + projected real-world MLB lines · MLE = level/park-neutral translations
Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed
Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | G | GS | IP | BF | K | BB | HR | GS% | IP/G | K% | BB% | K-BB% | HR% | ERA | FIP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2016 | 19 | ROK | GCL Rays | 8 | 8 | 22 | 96 | 19 | 7 | 0 | 100% | 2.8 | 13.5% | 9.1% | 4.3% | 0.0% | 2.01 | 3.12 | — |
| 2016 | 19 | ROK | GCL Rays | 8 | 8 | 22 | 96 | 19 | 7 | 0 | 100% | 2.8 | 19.8% | 7.3% | 12.5% | 0.0% | 2.01 | 2.34 | — |
| 2018 | 21 | A | Bowling Green Hot Rods | 7 | 0 | 9 | 55 | 9 | 2 | 2 | 0% | 1.3 | 12.1% | 4.3% | 7.8% | 4.4% | 9.00 | 5.04 | — |
| 2018 | 21 | A | Bowling Green Hot Rods | 7 | 0 | 9 | 55 | 9 | 2 | 2 | 0% | 1.3 | 16.4% | 3.6% | 12.7% | 3.6% | 9.00 | 4.66 | — |
| 2019 | 22 | A | Bowling Green Hot Rods | 31 | 0 | 62 | 269 | 76 | 28 | 4 | 0% | 2.0 | 20.9% | 12.3% | 8.6% | 1.3% | 3.48 | 3.58 | — |
| 2019 | 22 | A | Bowling Green Hot Rods | 31 | 0 | 62 | 269 | 76 | 28 | 4 | 0% | 2.0 | 28.3% | 10.4% | 17.8% | 1.5% | 3.48 | 2.84 | — |
| 2021 | 24 | A+ | South Bend Cubs | 2 | 0 | 2 | 10 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0% | 0.8 | 20.0% | 20.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 16.20 | 3.94 | — |
| 2021 | 24 | A+ | South Bend Cubs | 2 | 0 | 2 | 10 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0% | 0.8 | 20.0% | 20.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 16.20 | 4.30 | — |
| 2022 | 25 | MIX | 4 levels | 40 | 0 | 55 | 233 | 67 | 33 | 1 | 0% | 1.4 | 22.0% | 15.2% | 6.8% | 0.3% | 2.30 | 3.35 | +0.8 |
| 2022 | 25 | MIX | 4 levels | 40 | 0 | 55 | 233 | 67 | 33 | 1 | 0% | 1.4 | 28.8% | 14.2% | 14.6% | 0.4% | 2.30 | 2.70 | +1.2 |
| 2023 | 26 | MIX | 2 levels | 47 | 0 | 50 | 244 | 60 | 38 | 6 | 0% | 1.1 | 21.5% | 17.6% | 3.9% | 1.9% | 5.54 | 4.56 | -0.0 |
| 2023 | 26 | MIX | 2 levels | 47 | 0 | 50 | 244 | 60 | 38 | 6 | 0% | 1.1 | 24.6% | 15.6% | 9.0% | 2.5% | 5.54 | 4.53 | +0.0 |
| 2024 | 27 | MIX | 3 levels | 29 | 0 | 37 | 152 | 46 | 21 | 5 | 0% | 1.3 | 25.8% | 13.3% | 12.5% | 4.2% | 2.92 | 4.93 | — |
| 2024 | 27 | MIX | 3 levels | 29 | 0 | 37 | 152 | 46 | 21 | 5 | 0% | 1.3 | 30.3% | 13.8% | 16.4% | 3.3% | 2.92 | 4.07 | — |
| 2025 | 28 | AAA | Lehigh Valley IronPigs | 34 | 2 | 42 | 190 | 41 | 29 | 4 | 6% | 1.2 | 19.0% | 16.0% | 3.0% | 2.6% | 5.10 | 4.95 | — |
| 2025 | 28 | AAA | Lehigh Valley IronPigs | 34 | 2 | 42 | 190 | 41 | 29 | 4 | 6% | 1.2 | 21.6% | 15.3% | 6.3% | 2.1% | 5.10 | 4.45 | — |
| ▸ 2026 Season | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2026 | 29 | MLB | PHI | 56 | 0 | 58 | 246 | 50 | 42 | 7 | 0% | 1.0 | 20.3% | 17.2% | 3.2% | 2.9% | 5.56 | 5.56 | -0.7 |
| ▸ 2027+ Projections WITH CONTEXT · MLB TIME ONLY ⓘ | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 30 | MLB | PHI | 52 | 0 | 55 | 231 | 47 | 39 | 7 | 0% | 1.1 | 20.3% | 16.7% | 3.6% | 3.2% | 5.54 | 5.61 | -0.7 |
| 2028 | 31 | MLB | PHI | 49 | 0 | 51 | 216 | 43 | 35 | 7 | 0% | 1.0 | 20.1% | 16.4% | 3.7% | 3.4% | 5.60 | 5.71 | -0.7 |
| 2027 | 30 | MLB | PHI | 19 | 0 | 20 | 84 | 17 | 14 | 3 | 0% | 1.1 | 20.3% | 16.7% | 3.6% | 3.2% | 5.54 | 5.61 | -0.2 |
| 2028 | 31 | MLB | PHI | 27 | 0 | 28 | 118 | 24 | 19 | 4 | 0% | 1.0 | 20.1% | 16.4% | 3.7% | 3.4% | 5.60 | 5.71 | -0.4 |
| ▸ Career (MLB actual + context projections) | |||||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | 50 | 0 | 55 | 236 | 48 | 37 | 8 | 0% | 1.1 | 20.4% | 15.6% | 4.8% | 3.3% | 5.59 | 5.14 | -0.4 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 183 | 0 | 200 | 864 | 176 | 135 | 29 | 0% | 1.1 | 20.4% | 15.6% | 4.8% | 3.3% | 5.59 | 5.14 | +0.6 | ||
| Career | — | 198 | 10 | 279 | 1249 | 257 | 175 | 23 | 5% | 1.4 | 20.6% | 14.0% | 6.5% | 1.8% | 3.93 | 4.13 | +4.1 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 142 | 7 | 200 | 894 | 184 | 125 | 16 | 5% | 1.4 | 20.6% | 14.0% | 6.5% | 1.8% | 3.93 | 4.13 | +3.0 | ||
Career Path Comps
What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection
| Profile at Match Age | Next 3 Yrs | Career | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Comp | Age | Role | FIP | K% | BB% | HR/BF | BABIP | FIP | K% | K-BB% | IP | ΔFIP | Low FIP | IP | Match |
| Nicholas Padilla (OGILVIE) | — | — | 5.56 | 20.3% | 17.2% | 2.9% | — | 5.66 | 20.2% | 3.6% | 106 | +0.10 | — | — | — |
| Kaleb Bowman R 2026 · 5.61 FIP | 29 | SU | 5.61 | 17.8% | 17.5% | 3.3% | .327 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.74 | 185 | 74 |
| Wirfin Obispo R 2027 · 4.87 FIP | 30 | SU | 4.87 | 18.6% | 12.2% | 3.3% | .292 | 1.30 | 28.6% | 24.5% | 126 | -3.57 | 1.30 | 218 | 73 |
| Noah Song R 2026 · 4.96 FIP | 29 | SU | 4.96 | 16.6% | 14.2% | 2.7% | .348 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.62 | 106 | 73 |
| Gregory Infante R 2026 · 4.39 FIP | 29 | SU | 4.39 | 19.0% | 12.3% | 2.4% | .333 | 3.24 | 22.5% | 15.8% | 120 | -1.15 | 2.96 | 230 | 72 |
| Wil Browning R 2025 · 4.58 FIP | 28 | SU | 4.58 | 17.9% | 13.1% | 2.4% | .359 | — | — | — | — | — | 2.12 | 162 | 71 |
| Michael Darrell-Hicks R 2025 · 4.83 FIP | 28 | SU | 4.83 | 22.7% | 14.1% | 3.4% | .268 | — | — | — | — | — | 1.87 | 232 | 71 |
| Jose De La Torre R 2026 · 4.39 FIP | 29 | SU | 4.39 | 14.5% | 13.1% | 1.5% | .256 | 2.88 | 21.6% | 14.2% | 65 | -1.51 | 2.54 | 130 | 71 |
| Kevin Kopps R 2025 · 5.15 FIP | 28 | SU | 5.15 | 15.9% | 13.8% | 3.0% | .277 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.64 | 237 | 70 |
| Chris Jefferson R 2024 · 5.37 FIP | 27 | SU | 5.37 | 16.4% | 13.6% | 3.5% | .308 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.74 | 140 | 70 |
| Cole McDonald R 2024 · 5.38 FIP | 27 | SU | 5.38 | 21.1% | 13.8% | 4.2% | .281 | — | — | — | — | — | 2.72 | 153 | 70 |
| Tanner Scheppers R 2025 · 4.39 FIP | 28 | SU | 4.39 | 17.7% | 11.2% | 2.5% | .263 | 4.65 | 15.7% | 9.0% | 48 | +0.26 | 4.39 | 101 | 70 |
| Dan Winkler R 2026 · 4.97 FIP | 29 | SU | 4.97 | 20.6% | 15.2% | 3.1% | .237 | 4.27 | 23.0% | 8.4% | 104 | -0.70 | 2.40 | 231 | 70 |
| Grant Black R 2026 · 5.81 FIP | 29 | SU | 5.81 | 16.3% | 13.2% | 4.4% | .352 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.49 | 215 | 70 |
| Beck Wheeler R 2025 · 5.09 FIP | 28 | SU | 5.09 | 15.3% | 12.2% | 3.2% | .347 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.42 | 173 | 69 |
| Brandon Cunniff R 2025 · 4.96 FIP | 28 | SU | 4.96 | 20.1% | 11.6% | 3.8% | .275 | 7.33 | 13.9% | -1.9% | 30 | +2.37 | 3.78 | 180 | 69 |
| Brandon Maurer R 2025 · 4.83 FIP | 28 | SU | 4.83 | 19.7% | 13.0% | 3.2% | .339 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.21 | 234 | 69 |
| Luis Contreras R 2026 · 4.48 FIP | 29 | SU | 4.48 | 19.6% | 14.7% | 2.1% | .264 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.12 | 258 | 68 |
| Ryan Cook R 2025 · 4.69 FIP | 28 | SU | 4.69 | 16.5% | 9.9% | 3.1% | .297 | 4.04 | 25.1% | 14.3% | 50 | -0.65 | 4.04 | 102 | 68 |
| Kevin Lenik R 2024 · 4.93 FIP | 27 | SU | 4.93 | 21.7% | 14.9% | 3.2% | .205 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.04 | 107 | 67 |
| Charles Hall R 2025 · 5.06 FIP | 28 | SU | 5.06 | 18.0% | 19.1% | 1.9% | .278 | — | — | — | — | — | 2.43 | 181 | 67 |
Career Comps
Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 327 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).
| Player | Yrs | IP/yr | K% | BB% | HR/9 | ERA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION | 3 | 55 | 20.2% | 16.8% | 1.22 | 5.57 |
| Touki Toussaint ('24) | 7 | 40 | 23.1% | 14.1% | 1.25 | 5.39 |
| Amir Garrett ('23) | 6 | 51 | 25.8% | 13.4% | 1.50 | 5.10 |
| Tyler Chatwood ('21) | 5 | 104 | 19.2% | 13.3% | 0.94 | 4.48 |
| Daniel Bard ('23) | 4 | 50 | 25.1% | 13.5% | 0.81 | 3.82 |
| Michael Kopech ('24) | 4 | 96 | 26.1% | 12.5% | 1.45 | 4.15 |
| Fernando Rodney ('19) | 5 | 59 | 24.6% | 11.8% | 0.88 | 4.21 |