Nicholas Padilla

Nicholas Padilla P Lehigh Valley IronPigs

Age 29 RHP 6'2" / 220 lbs AAA

2026 ROS PROJECTION0 act + 5 ip · rates below = ROS only

showingROS

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 136127vR 119

ERA5.39

FIP5.39

K%19.2%

BB%15.2%

K-BB%4.0%

ROS IP5

Value2026 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 5 IP

Grades · Arsenal · Contract

Scouting Grades

STUF4545

CTRL3030

CMD3535

K†4545

FB+0.5

SL-2.6

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2026 so far)
2016	19	ROK MLE	GCL Rays	8	8	22	96	19	7	0	100%	2.8	13.5%	9.1%	4.3%	0.0%	2.01	3.12	—
2016	19	ROK RAW	GCL Rays	8	8	22	96	19	7	0	100%	2.8	19.8%	7.3%	12.5%	0.0%	2.01	2.34	—
2018	21	A MLE	Bowling Green Hot Rods	7	0	9	55	9	2	2	0%	1.3	12.1%	4.3%	7.8%	4.6%	9.00	5.12	—
2018	21	A RAW	Bowling Green Hot Rods	7	0	9	55	9	2	2	0%	1.3	16.4%	3.6%	12.7%	3.6%	9.00	4.66	—
2019	22	A MLE	Bowling Green Hot Rods	31	0	62	269	76	28	4	0%	2.0	20.9%	12.3%	8.6%	1.5%	3.48	3.73	—
2019	22	A RAW	Bowling Green Hot Rods	31	0	62	269	76	28	4	0%	2.0	28.3%	10.4%	17.8%	1.5%	3.48	2.84	—
2021	24	A+ MLE	South Bend Cubs	2	0	2	10	2	2	0	0%	0.8	20.0%	20.0%	0.0%	0.0%	16.20	3.94	—
2021	24	A+ RAW	South Bend Cubs	2	0	2	10	2	2	0	0%	0.8	20.0%	20.0%	0.0%	0.0%	16.20	4.30	—
2022	25	MIX MLE	4 levels	40	0	55	233	67	33	1	0%	1.4	22.0%	15.2%	6.8%	0.4%	2.30	3.40	+0.7
2022	25	MIX RAW	4 levels	40	0	55	233	67	33	1	0%	1.4	28.8%	14.2%	14.6%	0.4%	2.30	2.70	+1.2
2023	26	MIX MLE	2 levels	47	0	50	244	60	38	6	0%	1.1	20.3%	15.1%	5.2%	2.2%	5.54	4.48	+0.0
2023	26	MIX MLE	2 levels	47	0	50	244	60	38	6	0%	1.1	20.3%	15.1%	5.2%	2.2%	5.54	4.48	+0.0
2023	26	MIX RAW	2 levels	47	0	50	244	60	38	6	0%	1.1	24.6%	15.6%	9.0%	2.5%	5.54	4.53	+0.0
2024	27	MIX MLE	3 levels	29	0	37	152	46	21	5	0%	1.3	24.4%	11.4%	12.9%	4.3%	2.92	4.85	—
2024	27	MIX MLE	3 levels	29	0	37	152	46	21	5	0%	1.3	24.4%	11.4%	12.9%	4.3%	2.92	4.85	—
2024	27	MIX RAW	3 levels	29	0	37	152	46	21	5	0%	1.3	30.3%	13.8%	16.4%	3.3%	2.92	4.07	—
2025	28	AAA MLE	Lehigh Valley IronPigs	34	2	42	190	41	29	4	6%	1.2	17.9%	13.7%	4.2%	2.4%	5.10	4.67	—
2025	28	AAA MLE	Lehigh Valley IronPigs	34	2	42	190	41	29	4	6%	1.2	17.9%	13.7%	4.2%	2.4%	5.10	4.67	—
2025	28	AAA RAW	Lehigh Valley IronPigs	34	2	42	190	41	29	4	6%	1.2	21.6%	15.3%	6.3%	2.1%	5.10	4.45	—
▸ Career totals (raw MLB only — as recorded)
MLB Career	—			4	0	6	32	7	3	1	0%	1.6	21.9%	9.4%	12.5%	3.1%	5.68	4.36	+0.0
▸ 2026 season — projected remainder (no 2026 stats recorded)
2026	29	MLB	PHI	5	0	5	21	4	3	1	0%	1.0	19.2%	15.2%	4.0%	2.9%	5.39	5.39	-0.0
▸ Career projection (2027+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2027	30	MLB MLE	PHI	52	0	55	231	45	34	7	0%	1.1	19.3%	14.9%	4.4%	3.1%	5.39	5.46	-0.6
2028	31	MLB MLE	PHI	49	0	51	216	41	32	7	0%	1.0	19.2%	14.8%	4.4%	3.4%	5.47	5.58	-0.6
2027	30	MLB CTX	PHI	19	0	20	84	16	13	3	0%	1.1	19.3%	14.9%	4.4%	3.1%	5.39	5.46	-0.2
2028	31	MLB CTX	PHI	27	0	28	118	23	18	4	0%	1.0	19.2%	14.8%	4.4%	3.4%	5.47	5.58	-0.3
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		50	0	55	236	46	33	8	0%	1.1	19.6%	14.1%	5.5%	3.2%	5.47	5.02	-0.3
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		183	0	200	864	168	121	29	0%	1.1	19.6%	14.1%	5.5%	3.2%	5.47	5.02	-1.1
Career	—	MLE		198	10	279	1249	250	162	24	5%	1.4	20.0%	13.0%	7.0%	1.9%	3.93	4.11	-1.2
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		142	7	200	894	179	116	17	5%	1.4	20.0%	13.0%	7.0%	1.9%	3.93	4.11	-2.1

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Nicholas Padilla (OGILVIE)	—	—	5.39	19.2%	15.2%	2.9%	—	5.52	19.2%	4.4%	106	+0.13	—	—	—
Wirfin Obispo R 2015 · 4.80 FIP	30	SU	4.80	18.6%	12.2%	3.1%	.292	1.31	28.6%	24.5%	126	-3.49	1.30	218	77
Gregory Infante R 2016 · 4.47 FIP	29	SU	4.47	19.0%	12.3%	2.6%	.333	3.43	22.5%	15.8%	120	-1.04	2.97	230	75
Tanner Scheppers R 2015 · 4.37 FIP	28	SU	4.37	17.7%	11.2%	2.5%	.263	4.86	15.7%	9.0%	48	+0.49	4.37	101	74
Jose De La Torre R 2015 · 4.40 FIP	29	SU	4.40	14.5%	13.1%	1.6%	.256	2.98	21.6%	14.2%	65	-1.42	2.64	130	74
Wil Browning R 2017 · 4.44 FIP	28	SU	4.44	17.9%	13.1%	2.2%	.359	—	—	—	—	—	2.14	162	74
Javy Guerra R 2016 · 4.29 FIP	30	SU	4.29	21.3%	13.9%	2.3%	.303	3.95	19.5%	13.0%	193	-0.34	2.95	260	74
Ryan Cook R 2015 · 4.73 FIP	28	SU	4.73	16.5%	9.9%	3.2%	.297	3.96	25.1%	14.3%	50	-0.77	3.96	102	73
Brandon Cunniff R 2017 · 4.79 FIP	28	SU	4.79	20.1%	11.6%	3.5%	.275	6.80	13.9%	-1.9%	30	+2.01	3.89	180	73
Beck Wheeler R 2017 · 5.40 FIP	28	SU	5.40	15.3%	12.2%	3.7%	.347	—	—	—	—	—	3.46	173	73
Theo Denlinger R 2023 · 4.21 FIP	27	SU	4.21	19.8%	15.1%	1.6%	.266	4.23	15.3%	9.9%	41	+0.02	2.92	140	72
Jake Haberer R 2023 · 5.10 FIP	28	SU	5.10	16.4%	14.7%	2.8%	.262	5.03	16.2%	-1.4%	15	-0.07	3.46	183	71
Grant Black R 2023 · 5.54 FIP	29	SU	5.54	15.4%	11.3%	4.2%	.352	—	—	—	—	—	4.46	215	70
Joe Colón J R 2017 · 4.25 FIP	27	SU	4.25	20.4%	12.1%	2.4%	.315	—	—	—	—	—	3.27	113	70
Mike Adams R 2022 · 5.36 FIP	27	SU	5.36	17.1%	11.2%	4.2%	.326	—	—	—	—	—	3.65	109	70
André Rienzo R 2017 · 4.40 FIP	29	SW	4.40	18.9%	15.6%	1.7%	.301	5.33	17.9%	6.1%	29	+0.93	3.53	200	70
Dan Winkler R 2019 · 4.99 FIP	29	SU	4.99	20.6%	15.2%	3.1%	.237	4.44	23.0%	8.4%	104	-0.55	2.40	231	69
Neftalí Feliz R 2017 · 5.59 FIP	29	SU	5.59	18.9%	10.7%	5.0%	.240	4.74	16.2%	2.5%	92	-0.85	3.54	291	69
Roman Mendez R 2019 · 4.42 FIP	29	SU	4.42	20.8%	11.1%	3.0%	.276	—	—	—	—	—	4.12	230	69
Mitchell Stumpo R 2023 · 6.35 FIP	27	SU	6.35	20.6%	20.8%	4.3%	.368	4.77	22.6%	15.5%	34	-1.58	3.97	158	69
Ronald Peña R 2021 · 4.49 FIP	29	SU	4.49	16.5%	10.4%	2.7%	.288	—	—	—	—	—	3.72	187	68

Career Comps

Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 133 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	0.8	55	19.2%	15.0%	1.21	5.41
Amir Garrett ('23)	1.5	51	25.8%	13.4%	1.50	5.10
Touki Toussaint ('24)	1.4	40	23.1%	14.1%	1.25	5.39
Daniel Bard ('23)	1.0	50	25.1%	13.5%	0.81	3.82
Miguel Castro ('23)	2.1	59	20.8%	12.0%	1.04	3.99
José Ruiz ('24)	1.3	52	22.2%	10.4%	1.41	4.41
John Gant ('21)	1.7	85	20.1%	12.5%	0.79	3.91