Kevin Ginkel
P
Arizona Diamondbacks
+0.6
WAR
Age 32
RHP
6'4" / 235 lbs
MLB
Svc 5.0 · Ctrl thru 2026
peak 0.6 · 2026
ERA3.69
FIP3.69
xFIP2.81
SIERA2.52
K%25.0%
BB%8.2%
K-BB%16.8%
IP38
trajectory · 10 yrs
0.6peak
2026
K†6060
FB Velo
p5594.9
Whiff%
p6828.1%
K%
p6024.0%
xwOBA vs
p340.330
SL+1.7 (51%)
SI (4%)
FB-1.1 (49%)
Career (MLE) + Projections
Park-neutral MLB-equivalent. MiLB translated via MLE factors. FIP-based WAR vs replacement FIP=5.3 (SP) / 4.95 (RP, <80 IP). FIP+ = runs above league-avg FIP · REP = replacement-level bonus.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | G | GS | IP | BF | K | BB | HR | K% | BB% | HR% | ERA | FIP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2017 | 23 | A | Kane County Cougars | 6 | 0 | 7 | 39 | 5 | 8 | 1 | — | — | — | 14.85 | — | — |
| 2018 | 24 | AA | Jackson Generals | 54 | 0 | 70 | 265 | 100 | 12 | 5 | 30.0% | 5.0% | 2.3% | 1.41 | 2.49 | +2.0 |
| 2019 | 25 | MLB | Arizona Diamondbacks | 56 | 0 | 60 | 234 | 91 | 23 | 6 | 35.4% | 10.0% | 2.9% | 1.66 | 2.98 | +1.3 |
| 2020 | 26 | MLB | Arizona Diamondbacks | 19 | 0 | 16 | 79 | 18 | 11 | 3 | 22.8% | 13.9% | 3.8% | 6.75 | 5.03 | -0.0 |
| 2021 | 27 | MLB | Arizona Diamondbacks | 33 | 0 | 29 | 135 | 31 | 15 | 7 | 24.0% | 10.9% | 5.1% | 6.44 | 5.25 | -0.1 |
| 2022 | 28 | MLB | Arizona Diamondbacks | 60 | 0 | 60 | 247 | 75 | 22 | 2 | 28.2% | 9.1% | 0.9% | 2.25 | 2.37 | +1.8 |
| 2023 | 29 | MLB | Arizona Diamondbacks | 64 | 0 | 70 | 273 | 81 | 22 | 3 | 27.6% | 8.7% | 1.2% | 2.30 | 2.50 | +2.0 |
| 2024 | 30 | MLB | Arizona Diamondbacks | 72 | 0 | 70 | 291 | 77 | 15 | 6 | 26.5% | 5.2% | 2.1% | 3.21 | 2.65 | +1.9 |
| 2025 | 31 | MLB | Arizona Diamondbacks | 35 | 0 | 30 | 146 | 34 | 20 | 3 | 24.0% | 10.7% | 1.7% | 7.28 | 3.39 | +0.5 |
| ▸ 2026 Season | ||||||||||||||||
| 2026 | 32 | MLB | Arizona Diamondbacks | 8 | 0 | 8 | 35 | 10 | 3 | 0 | — | — | — | 5.87 | — | — |
| ROS | 32 | MLB | ARI | 31 | — | 31 | 130 | 34 | 11 | 3 | 26.2% | 8.2% | 2.4% | 3.62 | 3.65 | +0.5 |
| 2026 Total | 32 | MLB | ARI | — | — | 38 | 165 | 44 | 14 | 3 | 26.7% | 8.3% | 1.9% | 4.07 | 2.92 | +0.9 |
| ▸ 2027+ Projections — Marcel base + age-bracket aging | ||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 33 | MLB | ARI | 37 | — | 37 | 155 | 40 | 13 | 4 | 25.9% | 8.4% | 2.4% | 3.60 | 3.66 | +0.5 |
| 2028 | 34 | MLB | ARI | 35 | — | 35 | 147 | 37 | 13 | 4 | 25.2% | 8.6% | 2.5% | 3.72 | 3.80 | +0.5 |
| 2029 | 35 | MLB | ARI | 33 | — | 33 | 139 | 34 | 12 | 4 | 24.4% | 8.8% | 2.6% | 3.86 | 3.96 | +0.4 |
| 2030 | 36 | MLB | ARI | 31 | — | 31 | 130 | 31 | 12 | 4 | 23.6% | 9.1% | 2.7% | 4.02 | 4.12 | +0.3 |
| 2031 | 37 | MLB | ARI | 29 | — | 29 | 121 | 28 | 11 | 3 | 22.8% | 9.4% | 2.8% | 4.18 | 4.29 | +0.2 |
| ▸ Career (all levels · actual + projected) | ||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | 407 | 0 | 419 | 1744 | 485 | 150 | 38 | 27.8% | 8.6% | 2.2% | 3.28 | 3.04 | +10.8 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 194 | 0 | 200 | 832 | 231 | 72 | 18 | 27.8% | 8.6% | 2.2% | 3.28 | 3.04 | +5.1 | ||
Career Path Comps
What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection
| Profile at Match Age | Next 3 Yrs | Career | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Comp | Age | Role | FIP | K% | BB% | HR/BF | BABIP | FIP | K% | K-BB% | IP | ΔFIP | Low FIP | IP | Match |
| Kevin Ginkel (OGILVIE) | — | — | 3.65 | 26.2% | 8.2% | 2.4% | — | 3.80 | 25.2% | 16.6% | 104 | +0.15 | — | — | — |
| Arcenio Leon R 2026 · 3.52 FIP | 32 | SU | 3.52 | 21.4% | 8.1% | 2.2% | .314 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.01 | 115 | 79 |
| Chad Gaudin R 2027 · 2.66 FIP | 33 | SU | 2.66 | 22.8% | 6.8% | 1.1% | .325 | 3.16 | 21.8% | 13.9% | 58 | +0.50 | 2.02 | 102 | 77 |
| Fernando Nieve R 2027 · 4.26 FIP | 33 | SU | 4.26 | 22.0% | 10.5% | 3.1% | .290 | 2.44 | 26.9% | 22.6% | 89 | -1.82 | 1.94 | 112 | 77 |
| Jose Manuel Lopez R 2026 · 3.63 FIP | 32 | SU | 3.63 | 20.4% | 10.0% | 1.8% | .331 | 6.11 | 17.9% | 3.7% | 41 | +2.48 | 3.45 | 170 | 76 |
| Jonathan Broxton R 2026 · 3.65 FIP | 32 | SW | 3.65 | 22.0% | 7.3% | 2.7% | .256 | 4.36 | 20.5% | 9.0% | 16 | +0.71 | 3.65 | 137 | 75 |
| Ross Ohlendorf R 2026 · 3.33 FIP | 32 | SW | 3.33 | 23.7% | 7.2% | 2.4% | .342 | 4.98 | 23.4% | 12.7% | 66 | +1.65 | 3.33 | 122 | 75 |
| Josh Fields R 2026 · 3.46 FIP | 32 | SU | 3.46 | 21.4% | 6.5% | 2.5% | .224 | 7.56 | 18.9% | 9.5% | 25 | +4.10 | 1.85 | 238 | 75 |
| Mark Serrano R 2025 · 3.63 FIP | 31 | SU | 3.63 | 21.9% | 6.4% | 2.9% | .240 | 5.25 | 20.2% | 12.3% | 42 | +1.62 | 3.10 | 120 | 75 |
| Mike Broadway R 2025 · 4.63 FIP | 31 | SU | 4.63 | 23.0% | 10.6% | 3.9% | .282 | — | — | — | — | — | 1.74 | 195 | 74 |
| Santiago Casilla R 2029 · 3.50 FIP | 35 | SW | 3.50 | 25.4% | 8.6% | 2.6% | .290 | 3.90 | 22.4% | 12.7% | 161 | +0.40 | 3.50 | 219 | 74 |
| Juan Nicasio R 2026 · 3.14 FIP | 32 | SU | 3.14 | 20.7% | 7.4% | 1.6% | .349 | — | — | — | — | — | 2.46 | 338 | 73 |
| Daniel Bard R 2029 · 2.86 FIP | 35 | SU | 2.86 | 25.5% | 7.5% | 1.7% | .290 | 3.60 | 25.3% | 12.0% | 175 | +0.74 | 2.45 | 200 | 73 |
| Ryan Cook R 2025 · 3.85 FIP | 31 | SW | 3.85 | 25.1% | 10.8% | 2.7% | .280 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.85 | 102 | 73 |
| Matt Albers R 2026 · 3.13 FIP | 32 | SU | 3.13 | 18.8% | 4.7% | 1.9% | .252 | 4.47 | 20.4% | 13.3% | 147 | +1.34 | 3.13 | 244 | 72 |
| Tony Barnette R 2026 · 3.05 FIP | 32 | SW | 3.05 | 19.9% | 6.1% | 1.6% | .281 | 3.28 | 23.4% | 17.0% | 84 | +0.23 | 2.56 | 144 | 72 |
| James Hoyt R 2026 · 3.45 FIP | 32 | SU | 3.45 | 22.2% | 9.9% | 1.8% | .355 | 5.57 | 22.1% | 10.4% | 50 | +2.12 | 1.61 | 312 | 72 |
| Jumbo Diaz R 2026 · 3.88 FIP | 32 | SW | 3.88 | 22.3% | 9.2% | 2.7% | .247 | 3.28 | 23.0% | 13.8% | 141 | -0.60 | 2.80 | 284 | 72 |
| Pedro Strop R 2026 · 3.02 FIP | 32 | SW | 3.02 | 26.0% | 10.0% | 1.5% | .263 | 3.46 | 25.3% | 16.4% | 101 | +0.44 | 2.58 | 277 | 72 |
| Brad Brach R 2026 · 3.53 FIP | 32 | SW | 3.53 | 20.8% | 9.0% | 1.9% | .338 | 4.03 | 24.4% | 11.0% | 97 | +0.50 | 2.80 | 410 | 71 |
| Logan Kensing R 2027 · 3.61 FIP | 33 | SU | 3.61 | 17.6% | 8.8% | 1.6% | .270 | 3.06 | 17.9% | 10.0% | 124 | -0.55 | 2.72 | 172 | 71 |
Contract
ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)
Status Arb-3
MLB Debut 2019
Service 5.192 yrs.days
Team Control Through 2026
First FA Year 2027
| Year | Status | Salary | Proj WAR | Value | Surplus |
| 2026 | Arb-3 | $3M | +0.6 | $2M | +$0.0M (cut) |
| Totals | $2M | $2M | +$0.0M | ||