Kevin Ginkel

P Arizona Diamondbacks

Age 33 RHP 6'4" / 235 lbs MLB peak 0.4 · 2027

Overview

MLBRP40-MAN

Year	Age	Lvl / Team	G	IP	ERA	FIP	K%	BB%	WAR	MLE rates
2024	30	MLBARI	72	70	3.21	2.66	26.5%	5.2%	1.6
2025	31	MIX2 levels	35	30	7.28	4.14	23.3%	13.7%	0.1	K 24.0% · BB 10.7% · FIP 3.40
2026	32	MLBARI	74	68	4.12	3.41	26.2%	5.8%	0.9
2027PROJ	33	MLBARI	50	53	3.89	3.74	26.4%	6.5%	0.5
2028PROJ95% MLB	34	MLBARI	39	41	3.99	4.05	25.5%	7.0%	0.2
2029PROJ91% MLB	35	MLBARI	28	29	4.23	4.39	24.5%	7.5%	0.1

Last 3 seasons WAR 2.6 · Next 3 projected WAR 0.8Projected rows: MLB playing time only, park and league context applied.

Contract

No contract data on file.

Skills · percentileStatcast 2026

K%72

xwOBA vs72

FB Velo67

Form6.04 ERA (proj 3.89) · K 30.9% (proj 26.4%) · BB 5.3% (proj 6.5%) ▲ last 90d · 22 IP through Oct 27

CompsJoe Nelson (age 33) · Dale Thayer (age 33) · Tony Barnette (age 33)

2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONrates below = full-season projection

showingPROJ

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 10092vR 83

ERA3.89

FIP3.74

K%26.4%

BB%6.5%

K-BB%19.9%

Proj IP53

Value2027 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 53 IP

Grades · Statcast · Contract

Scouting Grades

STUF5555

CTRL5555

CMD6060

K†6060

Statcast Percentiles

FB Velo

p6795.7

Whiff%

p7729.5%

p7226.2%

xwOBA vs

p720.291

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to the standard WAR scale.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2027 so far)
2017	23	A MLE	Kane County Cougars	6	0	7	39	5	8	1	0%	1.1	12.8%	20.5%	-7.7%	2.6%	14.85	6.02	—
2017	23	A RAW	Kane County Cougars	6	0	7	39	5	8	1	0%	1.1	12.8%	20.5%	-7.7%	2.6%	14.85	7.15	—
2018	24	MIX MLE	2 levels	54	0	70	265	100	12	5	0%	1.3	30.0%	5.0%	24.9%	2.4%	1.41	2.50	—
2018	24	MIX RAW	2 levels	54	0	70	265	100	12	5	0%	1.3	37.7%	4.5%	33.2%	1.9%	1.41	1.69	—
2019	25	MIX MLE	4 levels	56	0	60	234	91	23	6	0%	1.1	35.4%	10.0%	25.4%	2.9%	1.66	2.98	+1.1
2019	25	MIX RAW	4 levels	56	0	60	234	91	23	6	0%	1.1	38.9%	9.8%	29.1%	2.6%	1.66	2.51	+1.5
2020	26	MLB MLE	Arizona Diamondbacks	19	0	16	79	18	11	3	0%	0.8	22.8%	13.9%	8.9%	4.0%	6.75	5.15	-0.1
2020	26	MLB RAW	Arizona Diamondbacks	19	0	16	79	18	11	3	0%	0.8	22.8%	13.9%	8.9%	3.8%	6.75	5.35	-0.1
2021	27	MIX MLE	2 levels	33	0	29	135	31	15	7	0%	0.9	24.0%	10.9%	13.2%	5.7%	6.44	5.60	-0.4
2021	27	MIX RAW	2 levels	33	0	29	135	31	15	7	0%	0.9	23.0%	11.1%	11.9%	5.2%	6.44	5.62	-0.4
2022	28	MIX MLE	2 levels	60	0	60	247	75	22	2	0%	1.0	28.2%	9.1%	19.0%	0.9%	2.25	2.37	+1.6
2022	28	MIX RAW	2 levels	60	0	60	247	75	22	2	0%	1.0	30.4%	8.9%	21.5%	0.8%	2.25	2.13	+1.7
2023	29	MIX MLE	2 levels	64	0	70	273	81	22	3	0%	1.1	27.6%	8.7%	18.9%	1.2%	2.30	2.56	+1.7
2023	29	MIX RAW	2 levels	64	0	70	273	81	22	3	0%	1.1	29.7%	8.1%	21.6%	1.1%	2.30	2.29	+1.9
2024	30	MLB MLE	Arizona Diamondbacks	72	0	70	291	77	15	6	0%	1.0	26.5%	5.2%	21.3%	2.2%	3.21	2.72	+1.5
2024	30	MLB MLE	Arizona Diamondbacks	72	0	70	291	77	15	6	0%	1.0	26.5%	5.2%	21.3%	2.2%	3.21	2.72	+1.5
2024	30	MLB RAW	Arizona Diamondbacks	72	0	70	291	77	15	6	0%	1.0	26.5%	5.2%	21.3%	2.1%	3.21	2.66	+1.6
2025	31	MIX MLE	2 levels	35	0	30	146	34	20	3	0%	0.8	24.0%	10.7%	13.2%	1.7%	7.28	3.40	+0.4
2025	31	MIX MLE	2 levels	35	0	30	146	34	20	3	0%	0.8	24.0%	10.7%	13.2%	1.7%	7.28	3.40	+0.4
2025	31	MIX RAW	2 levels	35	0	30	146	34	20	3	0%	0.8	23.3%	13.7%	9.6%	2.1%	7.28	4.14	+0.1
2026	32	MLB MLE	Arizona Diamondbacks	74	0	68	275	72	16	9	0%	0.9	26.2%	5.8%	20.4%	3.5%	4.12	3.53	+0.8
2026	32	MLB MLE	Arizona Diamondbacks	74	0	68	275	72	16	9	0%	0.9	26.2%	5.8%	20.4%	3.5%	4.12	3.53	+0.8
2026	32	MLB RAW	Arizona Diamondbacks	74	0	68	275	72	16	9	0%	0.9	26.2%	5.8%	20.4%	3.3%	4.12	3.41	+0.9
▸ Career totals (raw MLB only — as recorded)
MLB Career	—			341	0	327	1369	355	111	33	0%	1.0	25.9%	8.1%	17.8%	2.4%	3.91	3.26	+5.0
▸ 2027 season — projected remainder (no 2027 stats recorded)
2027	33	MLB	ARI	50	0	53	224	59	14	7	0%	1.1	26.4%	6.5%	19.9%	3.1%	3.89	3.74	+0.5
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2028	34	MLB MLE	ARI	41	0	43	180	46	13	6	0%	1.0	25.5%	7.0%	18.5%	3.4%	3.99	4.05	+0.3
2029	35	MLB MLE	ARI	30	0	32	133	33	10	5	0%	1.1	24.5%	7.5%	17.0%	3.7%	4.23	4.39	+0.1
2028	34	MLB CTX	ARI	39	0	41	173	44	12	6	0%	1.1	25.5%	7.0%	18.5%	3.4%	3.99	4.05	+0.2
2029	35	MLB CTX	ARI	28	0	29	122	30	9	5	0%	1.0	24.5%	7.5%	17.0%	3.7%	4.23	4.39	+0.1
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		407	0	396	1661	428	132	43	0%	1.0	25.8%	7.9%	17.8%	2.6%	3.94	3.36	+5.6
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		206	0	200	839	216	67	22	0%	1.0	25.8%	7.9%	17.8%	2.6%	3.94	3.36	+2.8
Career	—	MLE		473	0	479	1984	547	163	49	0%	1.0	27.5%	8.2%	19.3%	2.5%	3.36	3.17	+5.3
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		197	0	200	828	228	68	20	0%	1.0	27.5%	8.2%	19.3%	2.5%	3.36	3.17	+2.7

How the minor-league lines were translated

One row per minor-league stint. Open a row to see each step: the raw rate, the park adjustment, the league/level factor, the age adjustment (hitters) and the resulting MLE rate. Factors are the same ones listed on the MLE Factors page.

2025 AAAReno Aces · 4 IPFIP 7.15 → 7.51 (+0.36)K% 20.0% → 17.2%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	20.00%	—	×0.860	17.20%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	28.00%	—	×0.900	25.20%
HR / BF /BF	4.00%	÷0.904	×1.100	4.87%

Factors used: pitcher AAA level factors (Triple-A 2023+ robo-zone set: walks improve on promotion) — K ×0.86, BB ×0.90, HR ×1.10. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 81).

Result: FIP 7.15 → 7.51, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2022 AAAReno Aces · 31 IPFIP 1.59 → 2.08 (+0.49)K% 36.6% → 32.2%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	36.59%	—	×0.880	32.20%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	8.94%	—	×1.050	9.39%
HR / BF /BF	0.81%	÷0.965	×1.100	0.93%

Factors used: pitcher AAA level factors — K ×0.88, BB ×1.05, HR ×1.10. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 93).

Result: FIP 1.59 → 2.08, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2019 AAAReno Aces · 17 IPFIP 1.71 → 2.37 (+0.65)K% 53.7% → 47.3%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	53.73%	—	×0.880	47.28%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	11.94%	—	×1.050	12.54%
HR / BF /BF	2.99%	÷1.077	×1.100	3.05%

Result: FIP 1.71 → 2.37, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2019 AAJackson Generals · 17 IPFIP 2.39 → 3.53 (+1.15)K% 40.0% → 32.4%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	40.00%	—	×0.810	32.40%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	7.69%	—	×1.100	8.46%
HR / BF /BF	3.08%	÷0.966	×1.200	3.82%

Factors used: pitcher AA level factors — K ×0.81, BB ×1.10, HR ×1.20. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 93).

Result: FIP 2.39 → 3.53, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2018 AAJackson Generals · 43 IPFIP 1.68 → 2.62 (+0.93)K% 37.3% → 30.2%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	37.27%	—	×0.810	30.19%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	5.59%	—	×1.100	6.15%
HR / BF /BF	1.86%	÷0.954	×1.200	2.34%

Result: FIP 1.68 → 2.62, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2018 A+Visalia Rawhide · 27 IPFIP 1.27 → 2.32 (+1.04)K% 38.5% → 29.6%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	38.46%	—	×0.770	29.62%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	2.88%	—	×1.150	3.32%
HR / BF /BF	1.92%	÷1.018	×1.250	2.36%

Factors used: pitcher A+ level factors — K ×0.77, BB ×1.15, HR ×1.25. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 104).

Result: FIP 1.27 → 2.32, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2017 AKane County Cougars · 7 IPFIP 6.02 → 7.40 (+1.38)K% 12.8% → 9.5%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	12.82%	—	×0.740	9.49%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	20.51%	—	×1.180	24.21%
HR / BF /BF	2.56%	÷0.899	×1.300	3.71%

Factors used: pitcher A level factors — K ×0.74, BB ×1.18, HR ×1.30. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 80).

Result: FIP 6.02 → 7.40, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Kevin Ginkel (OGILVIE)	—	—	3.74	26.4%	6.5%	3.1%	—	4.19	25.1%	17.9%	74	+0.45	—	—	—
Joe Nelson R 2008 · 3.08 FIP	33	SU	3.08	26.1%	7.8%	2.2%	.252	5.35	19.8%	5.5%	40	+2.27	3.08	139	79
Dale Thayer R 2014 · 3.56 FIP	33	SU	3.56	23.4%	4.9%	3.3%	.243	4.34	15.8%	8.8%	38	+0.78	2.75	239	79
Tony Barnette R 2017 · 3.56 FIP	33	SU	3.56	22.6%	7.1%	2.7%	.335	2.61	25.0%	20.2%	26	-0.95	2.61	144	78
Jim Henderson R 2016 · 4.55 FIP	33	SU	4.55	25.8%	9.0%	4.5%	.287	—	—	—	—	—	1.86	167	76
Kazuhiro Sasaki R 2001 · 2.79 FIP	33	SU	2.79	23.8%	3.4%	2.3%	.228	2.95	25.8%	18.5%	94	+0.16	2.76	223	75
Bob Wells R 2000 · 3.93 FIP	33	SU	3.93	21.7%	3.7%	4.0%	.266	4.57	14.2%	8.6%	127	+0.64	3.93	627	75
Blake Parker R 2018 · 4.12 FIP	33	SU	4.12	25.4%	6.5%	4.3%	.290	4.12	24.9%	16.5%	121	+0.00	2.52	406	74
Rafael Betancourt R 2008 · 4.12 FIP	33	SU	4.12	20.7%	6.5%	3.6%	.304	2.37	31.4%	27.3%	181	-1.75	1.79	686	72
Zack Segovia R 2016 · 3.33 FIP	33	SU	3.33	20.2%	5.9%	2.2%	.312	4.55	17.6%	4.0%	57	+1.22	3.33	144	70
Hirokazu Sawamura R 2021 · 4.48 FIP	33	SU	4.48	26.2%	11.2%	4.0%	.263	4.02	18.1%	6.8%	51	-0.46	4.02	104	70
Brendan Donnelly R 2004 · 3.05 FIP	33	SU	3.05	32.6%	8.7%	2.9%	.302	3.88	19.0%	11.8%	150	+0.83	2.23	385	69
Chris Martin R 2019 · 3.14 FIP	33	SU	3.14	30.1%	2.3%	4.2%	.314	2.35	27.1%	24.7%	117	-0.79	1.76	431	69
Adrian Ramirez R 2019 · 4.29 FIP	31	SU	4.29	21.7%	6.3%	4.0%	.327	—	—	—	—	—	3.04	137	68
Akinori Otsuka R 2005 · 3.05 FIP	33	SU	3.05	21.7%	9.4%	1.1%	.278	2.59	19.4%	14.2%	92	-0.46	2.39	232	68
Arcenio Leon R 2019 · 3.61 FIP	32	SU	3.61	21.4%	8.1%	2.4%	.314	—	—	—	—	—	3.00	115	67
Huascar Brazobán R 2023 · 3.52 FIP	33	SU	3.52	25.3%	11.3%	2.1%	.304	3.54	21.9%	11.8%	195	+0.02	3.08	370	66
Matt Herges R 2003 · 2.90 FIP	33	SU	2.90	20.5%	8.1%	0.9%	.278	4.39	11.1%	4.4%	165	+1.49	2.90	691	66
Spencer Patton R 2021 · 3.04 FIP	33	SU	3.04	27.9%	8.7%	2.2%	.305	4.97	21.2%	10.4%	88	+1.93	2.79	239	66
Chris Nichting R 2001 · 4.11 FIP	35	SU	4.11	21.2%	3.7%	4.2%	.351	4.67	16.6%	13.3%	36	+0.56	4.11	103	66
Tyler Walker R 2009 · 3.72 FIP	33	SU	3.72	18.0%	5.3%	2.7%	.243	3.77	20.7%	16.6%	35	+0.05	2.38	289	66

Career Comps

Completed MLB careers (no pro action in 2+ yrs) whose totals — actual + projected — most resemble this player's. Pool: 1,234 reliever careers (754 from 1990-2025 + 480 historical, 1901-2023), also matched on career-to-date at the same age. * Historical (Lahman) careers: rates era-adjusted to 2001-24 league levels; WAR is an OGILVIE proxy.

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	2.3	45	25.8%	8.0%	1.03	3.94
Josh Fields ('18)	1.4	46	27.5%	8.0%	0.98	3.71
Mike Schooler ('88-'93, 5 WAR*)	1.5	49	26.9%*	8.0%*	0.96*	3.68*
Héctor Rondón ('20)	2.2	54	24.2%	7.4%	1.03	3.49
Fernando Salas ('19)	2.4	54	23.1%	7.3%	1.05	3.91
Joe Hoerner ('63-'77, 8 WAR*)	2.8	51	23.2%*	7.9%*	1.21*	3.52*
Rob Murphy ('85-'95, 6 WAR*)	3.1	69	25.2%*	9.2%*	1.07*	3.94*