Kevin Ginkel — OGILVIE

Kevin Ginkel P Arizona Diamondbacks

Age 32 RHP 6'4" / 235 lbs MLB peak 0.5 · 2026

2026 ROS PROJECTION62 act + 4 ip · rates below = ROS only

showingROS

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 9486vR 78

ERA3.26

FIP3.23

K%25.3%

BB%7.0%

K-BB%18.3%

ROS IP4

Value2026 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 66 IP

Grades · Statcast · Arsenal · Contract

Scouting Grades

STUF5555

CTRL5555

CMD6060

K†6060

Statcast Percentiles

FB Velo

p6795.7

Whiff%

p7629.4%

p6324.6%

xwOBA vs

p670.295

SL+1.7 (48%)

SI (5%)

FB-1.1 (52%)

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2026 so far)
2017	23	A MLE	Kane County Cougars	6	0	7	39	5	8	1	0%	1.1	12.8%	20.5%	-7.7%	2.6%	14.85	6.02	—
2017	23	A RAW	Kane County Cougars	6	0	7	39	5	8	1	0%	1.1	12.8%	20.5%	-7.7%	2.6%	14.85	7.15	—
2018	24	MIX MLE	2 levels	54	0	70	265	100	12	5	0%	1.3	30.0%	5.0%	24.9%	2.4%	1.41	2.50	—
2018	24	MIX RAW	2 levels	54	0	70	265	100	12	5	0%	1.3	37.7%	4.5%	33.2%	1.9%	1.41	1.69	—
2019	25	MIX MLE	4 levels	56	0	60	234	91	23	6	0%	1.1	35.4%	10.0%	25.4%	2.9%	1.66	2.98	+1.1
2019	25	MIX RAW	4 levels	56	0	60	234	91	23	6	0%	1.1	38.9%	9.8%	29.1%	2.6%	1.66	2.51	+1.5
2020	26	MLB MLE	Arizona Diamondbacks	19	0	16	79	18	11	3	0%	0.8	22.8%	13.9%	8.9%	4.0%	6.75	5.15	-0.1
2020	26	MLB RAW	Arizona Diamondbacks	19	0	16	79	18	11	3	0%	0.8	22.8%	13.9%	8.9%	3.8%	6.75	5.35	-0.1
2021	27	MIX MLE	2 levels	33	0	29	135	31	15	7	0%	0.9	24.0%	10.9%	13.2%	5.7%	6.44	5.60	-0.4
2021	27	MIX RAW	2 levels	33	0	29	135	31	15	7	0%	0.9	23.0%	11.1%	11.9%	5.2%	6.44	5.62	-0.4
2022	28	MIX MLE	2 levels	60	0	60	247	75	22	2	0%	1.0	28.2%	9.1%	19.0%	0.9%	2.25	2.37	+1.6
2022	28	MIX RAW	2 levels	60	0	60	247	75	22	2	0%	1.0	30.4%	8.9%	21.5%	0.8%	2.25	2.13	+1.7
2023	29	MIX MLE	2 levels	64	0	70	273	81	22	3	0%	1.1	27.6%	8.7%	18.9%	1.2%	2.30	2.56	+1.7
2023	29	MIX MLE	2 levels	64	0	70	273	81	22	3	0%	1.1	27.6%	8.7%	18.9%	1.2%	2.30	2.56	+1.7
2023	29	MIX RAW	2 levels	64	0	70	273	81	22	3	0%	1.1	29.7%	8.1%	21.6%	1.1%	2.30	2.29	+1.9
2024	30	MLB MLE	Arizona Diamondbacks	72	0	70	291	77	15	6	0%	1.0	26.5%	5.2%	21.3%	2.2%	3.21	2.72	+1.5
2024	30	MLB MLE	Arizona Diamondbacks	72	0	70	291	77	15	6	0%	1.0	26.5%	5.2%	21.3%	2.2%	3.21	2.72	+1.5
2024	30	MLB RAW	Arizona Diamondbacks	72	0	70	291	77	15	6	0%	1.0	26.5%	5.2%	21.3%	2.1%	3.21	2.66	+1.6
2025	31	MIX MLE	2 levels	35	0	30	146	34	20	3	0%	0.8	24.0%	10.7%	13.2%	1.7%	7.28	3.40	+0.4
2025	31	MIX MLE	2 levels	35	0	30	146	34	20	3	0%	0.8	24.0%	10.7%	13.2%	1.7%	7.28	3.40	+0.4
2025	31	MIX RAW	2 levels	35	0	30	146	34	20	3	0%	0.8	23.3%	13.7%	9.6%	2.1%	7.28	4.14	+0.1
▸ Career totals (raw MLB only — as recorded)
MLB Career	—			334	0	321	1342	344	110	31	0%	1.0	25.6%	8.2%	17.4%	2.3%	3.87	3.24	+5.0
▸ 2026 season
YTD	32	MLB MLE	Arizona Diamondbacks	67	0	62	248	61	15	7	0%	0.9	24.6%	6.0%	18.5%	3.0%	3.94	3.43	+0.8
YTD	32	MLB MLE	Arizona Diamondbacks	67	0	62	248	61	15	7	0%	0.9	24.6%	6.0%	18.5%	3.0%	3.94	3.43	+0.8
▸ 2026 season — so far · projected rest · full
2026	32	MLB RAW	ARI	67	0	62	248	61	15	7	0%	0.9	24.6%	6.0%	18.5%	2.8%	3.94	3.34	+0.9
SO FAR	32	MLB RAW	ARI	67	0	62	248	61	15	7	0%	0.9	24.6%	6.0%	18.5%	2.8%	3.94	3.34	+0.9
ROS	32	MLB MLE	ARI	4	0	4	17	4	1	0	0%	1.0	25.3%	7.0%	18.3%	2.5%	3.26	3.23	+0.1
ROS	32	MLB CTX	ARI	4	0	4	17	4	1	0	0%	1.0	25.3%	7.0%	18.3%	2.5%	3.26	3.23	+0.1
2026 TOT	32	MLB MLE	ARI	—	—	66	265	65	16	7	—	—	24.6%	6.1%	18.5%	2.8%	3.90	3.42	+1.0
FULL	32	MLB A+C	ARI	—	—	66	277	65	16	7	—	—	23.5%	5.8%	17.7%	2.7%	3.90	3.32	+1.0
▸ Career projection (2027+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2027	33	MLB MLE	ARI	41	0	43	180	44	13	5	0%	1.0	24.6%	7.4%	17.2%	2.9%	3.81	3.91	+0.3
2027	33	MLB CTX	ARI	39	0	41	173	43	13	5	0%	1.1	24.6%	7.4%	17.2%	2.9%	3.81	3.91	+0.3
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		376	0	365	1530	390	124	36	0%	1.0	25.5%	8.1%	17.4%	2.4%	3.86	3.27	+5.5
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		206	0	200	838	214	68	20	0%	1.0	25.5%	8.1%	17.4%	2.4%	3.86	3.27	+3.0
Career	—	MLE		466	0	473	1957	536	162	47	0%	1.0	27.4%	8.3%	19.1%	2.4%	3.33	3.16	+5.4
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		197	0	200	827	226	69	20	0%	1.0	27.4%	8.3%	19.1%	2.4%	3.33	3.16	+2.9

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Kevin Ginkel (OGILVIE)	—	—	3.59	26.2%	7.7%	2.5%	—	3.91	24.6%	17.2%	43	+0.32	—	—	—
Jonathan Broxton R 2016 · 3.77 FIP	32	SU	3.77	22.0%	7.3%	2.9%	.256	4.34	20.5%	9.0%	16	+0.57	3.67	137	80
Josh Fields R 2018 · 3.48 FIP	32	SU	3.48	21.4%	6.5%	2.5%	.224	7.56	18.9%	9.5%	25	+4.08	1.90	238	79
Pedro Strop R 2017 · 3.08 FIP	32	SU	3.08	26.0%	10.0%	1.7%	.263	3.43	25.3%	16.4%	101	+0.35	2.56	277	79
Ross Ohlendorf R 2015 · 3.30 FIP	32	SU	3.30	23.7%	7.2%	2.3%	.342	4.93	23.4%	12.7%	66	+1.63	3.30	122	78
Santiago Casilla R 2015 · 3.50 FIP	35	SU	3.50	25.4%	8.6%	2.7%	.290	3.97	22.4%	12.7%	161	+0.47	3.50	219	77
Blake Wood R 2017 · 3.44 FIP	31	SU	3.44	25.3%	9.3%	2.4%	.364	—	—	—	—	—	2.92	210	76
Chad Gaudin R 2016 · 2.67 FIP	33	SU	2.67	22.8%	6.8%	1.2%	.325	3.15	21.8%	13.9%	58	+0.48	2.02	102	76
Chris Hatcher R 2017 · 4.31 FIP	32	SU	4.31	24.5%	7.4%	4.3%	.291	5.32	18.0%	8.4%	36	+1.01	2.92	176	76
Wade Davis R 2018 · 3.33 FIP	32	SU	3.33	29.9%	10.0%	2.7%	.235	5.00	20.2%	8.1%	85	+1.67	2.00	320	75
Ryan Madson R 2015 · 2.99 FIP	34	SU	2.99	23.4%	5.2%	2.2%	.244	2.96	23.9%	18.7%	176	-0.03	1.42	240	75
Arcenio Leon R 2019 · 3.61 FIP	32	SU	3.61	21.4%	8.1%	2.4%	.314	—	—	—	—	—	3.00	115	75
Jumbo Diaz R 2016 · 3.85 FIP	32	SU	3.85	22.3%	9.2%	2.7%	.247	3.28	23.0%	13.8%	141	-0.57	2.80	284	74
Mark Serrano R 2017 · 3.56 FIP	31	SU	3.56	21.9%	6.4%	2.7%	.240	5.25	20.2%	12.3%	42	+1.69	3.16	120	74
Daniel Bard R 2020 · 2.82 FIP	35	SU	2.82	25.5%	7.5%	1.7%	.290	3.63	25.3%	12.0%	175	+0.81	2.56	200	74
Joakim Soria R 2016 · 4.33 FIP	32	SU	4.33	23.2%	9.2%	3.7%	.319	2.63	28.5%	21.7%	186	-1.70	2.01	380	74
Ryan Cook R 2018 · 3.96 FIP	31	SU	3.96	25.1%	10.8%	2.9%	.280	—	—	—	—	—	3.96	102	74
Juan Nicasio R 2019 · 3.23 FIP	32	SU	3.23	20.7%	7.4%	1.7%	.349	—	—	—	—	—	2.46	338	73
George Kontos R 2017 · 3.71 FIP	32	SU	3.71	25.2%	6.5%	3.5%	.287	4.41	14.7%	8.6%	97	+0.70	3.55	290	73
David Phelps R 2019 · 4.35 FIP	32	SU	4.35	24.5%	10.9%	3.5%	.289	3.46	26.7%	16.6%	84	-0.89	2.50	373	73
Javy Guerra R 2018 · 2.95 FIP	32	SU	2.95	23.0%	5.9%	1.9%	.311	4.03	19.7%	13.8%	83	+1.08	2.95	260	73

Career Comps

Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 133 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	0.4	45	25.5%	7.6%	1.03	3.71
Trevor Gott ('23)	1.0	51	22.0%	7.4%	0.79	3.97
Blake Parker ('21)	1.2	60	26.6%	7.3%	1.40	3.36
Richard Rodríguez ('21)	1.1	56	25.0%	6.3%	1.21	3.00
Colin Poche ('24)	1.0	52	27.0%	9.2%	1.34	3.63
Adbert Alzolay ('23)	1.1	70	26.1%	7.0%	1.32	3.84
Diego Castillo ('22)	1.3	52	28.1%	8.9%	1.07	3.12