Kevin Ginkel
P
Arizona Diamondbacks
Age 32
RHP
6'4" / 235 lbs
MLB
peak 0.5 · 2026
2026 ROS PROJECTION38 act + 8 ip · rates below = ROS only
wRC+ AGAINSTvL 9182vR 73
ERA3.18
FIP3.14
K%26.4%
BB%7.3%
K-BB%19.1%
ROS IP8
Value2026 · WAR
Runs saved vs league avg · 46 IP
Grades · Statcast · Arsenal · Contract
Statcast Percentiles
FB Velo
p6195.3
Whiff%
p9032.7%
K%
p7326.5%
xwOBA vs
p720.291
SL+1.7 (52%)
SI (4%)
FB-1.1 (48%)
Contract
No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.
Career Stats + Projections
Viewactual = stats as recorded (seasons combined) + projected real-world MLB lines · MLE = level/park-neutral translations
Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed
Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | G | GS | IP | BF | K | BB | HR | GS% | IP/G | K% | BB% | K-BB% | HR% | ERA | FIP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2017 | 23 | A | Kane County Cougars | 6 | 0 | 7 | 39 | 5 | 8 | 1 | 0% | 1.1 | 12.8% | 20.5% | -7.7% | 2.6% | 14.85 | 6.02 | — |
| 2017 | 23 | A | Kane County Cougars | 6 | 0 | 7 | 39 | 5 | 8 | 1 | 0% | 1.1 | 12.8% | 20.5% | -7.7% | 2.6% | 14.85 | 7.15 | — |
| 2018 | 24 | MIX | 2 levels | 54 | 0 | 70 | 265 | 100 | 12 | 5 | 0% | 1.3 | 30.0% | 5.0% | 24.9% | 2.4% | 1.41 | 2.53 | — |
| 2018 | 24 | MIX | 2 levels | 54 | 0 | 70 | 265 | 100 | 12 | 5 | 0% | 1.3 | 37.7% | 4.5% | 33.2% | 1.9% | 1.41 | 1.69 | — |
| 2019 | 25 | MIX | 4 levels | 56 | 0 | 60 | 234 | 91 | 23 | 6 | 0% | 1.1 | 35.4% | 10.0% | 25.4% | 2.8% | 1.66 | 2.92 | +1.1 |
| 2019 | 25 | MIX | 4 levels | 56 | 0 | 60 | 234 | 91 | 23 | 6 | 0% | 1.1 | 38.9% | 9.8% | 29.1% | 2.6% | 1.66 | 2.51 | +1.4 |
| 2020 | 26 | MLB | Arizona Diamondbacks | 19 | 0 | 16 | 79 | 18 | 11 | 3 | 0% | 0.8 | 22.8% | 13.9% | 8.9% | 3.6% | 6.75 | 4.93 | -0.1 |
| 2020 | 26 | MLB | Arizona Diamondbacks | 19 | 0 | 16 | 79 | 18 | 11 | 3 | 0% | 0.8 | 22.8% | 13.9% | 8.9% | 3.8% | 6.75 | 5.35 | -0.1 |
| 2021 | 27 | MIX | 2 levels | 33 | 0 | 29 | 135 | 31 | 15 | 7 | 0% | 0.9 | 24.0% | 10.9% | 13.2% | 5.2% | 6.44 | 5.30 | -0.3 |
| 2021 | 27 | MIX | 2 levels | 33 | 0 | 29 | 135 | 31 | 15 | 7 | 0% | 0.9 | 23.0% | 11.1% | 11.9% | 5.2% | 6.44 | 5.62 | -0.4 |
| 2022 | 28 | MIX | 2 levels | 60 | 0 | 60 | 247 | 75 | 22 | 2 | 0% | 1.0 | 28.2% | 9.1% | 19.0% | 0.9% | 2.25 | 2.35 | +1.5 |
| 2022 | 28 | MIX | 2 levels | 60 | 0 | 60 | 247 | 75 | 22 | 2 | 0% | 1.0 | 30.4% | 8.9% | 21.5% | 0.8% | 2.25 | 2.13 | +1.7 |
| 2023 | 29 | MIX | 2 levels | 64 | 0 | 70 | 273 | 81 | 22 | 3 | 0% | 1.1 | 27.6% | 8.7% | 18.9% | 1.1% | 2.30 | 2.49 | +1.9 |
| 2023 | 29 | MIX | 2 levels | 64 | 0 | 70 | 273 | 81 | 22 | 3 | 0% | 1.1 | 29.7% | 8.1% | 21.6% | 1.1% | 2.30 | 2.29 | +2.0 |
| 2024 | 30 | MLB | Arizona Diamondbacks | 72 | 0 | 70 | 291 | 77 | 15 | 6 | 0% | 1.0 | 26.5% | 5.2% | 21.3% | 2.0% | 3.21 | 2.60 | +1.8 |
| 2024 | 30 | MLB | Arizona Diamondbacks | 72 | 0 | 70 | 291 | 77 | 15 | 6 | 0% | 1.0 | 26.5% | 5.2% | 21.3% | 2.1% | 3.21 | 2.66 | +1.7 |
| 2025 | 31 | MIX | 2 levels | 35 | 0 | 30 | 146 | 34 | 20 | 3 | 0% | 0.8 | 24.0% | 10.7% | 13.2% | 1.6% | 7.28 | 3.31 | +0.4 |
| 2025 | 31 | MIX | 2 levels | 35 | 0 | 30 | 146 | 34 | 20 | 3 | 0% | 0.8 | 23.3% | 13.7% | 9.6% | 2.1% | 7.28 | 4.14 | +0.1 |
| ▸ 2026 Season | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2026 | 32 | MLB | Arizona Diamondbacks | 41 | 0 | 38 | 151 | 40 | 10 | 4 | 0% | 0.9 | 26.5% | 6.6% | 19.9% | 2.6% | 2.84 | 3.16 | +0.6 |
| ROS | 32 | MLB | ARI | 8 | 0 | 8 | 36 | 9 | 3 | 1 | 0% | 1.1 | 26.4% | 7.3% | 19.1% | 2.4% | 3.18 | 3.14 | +0.1 |
| ROS | 32 | MLB | ARI | 8 | 0 | 8 | 34 | 9 | 2 | 1 | 0% | 1.0 | 26.4% | 7.3% | 19.1% | 2.4% | 3.18 | 3.14 | +0.1 |
| 2026 TOT | 32 | MLB | ARI | — | — | 46 | 187 | 49 | 13 | 5 | — | — | 26.5% | 6.8% | 19.7% | 2.6% | 2.90 | 3.15 | +0.8 |
| 2026 FULL | 32 | MLB | ARI | — | — | 46 | 196 | 49 | 13 | 5 | — | — | 25.2% | 6.4% | 18.8% | 2.5% | 2.90 | 3.15 | +0.8 |
| ▸ 2027+ Projections WITH CONTEXT · MLB TIME ONLY ⓘ | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 33 | MLB | ARI | 41 | 0 | 43 | 180 | 46 | 14 | 5 | 0% | 1.0 | 25.5% | 7.8% | 17.8% | 2.7% | 3.71 | 3.80 | +0.4 |
| 2028 | 34 | MLB | ARI | 37 | 0 | 39 | 164 | 40 | 14 | 5 | 0% | 1.1 | 24.6% | 8.3% | 16.4% | 3.0% | 3.95 | 4.11 | +0.2 |
| 2029 | 35 | MLB | ARI | 33 | 0 | 35 | 147 | 35 | 13 | 5 | 0% | 1.1 | 23.6% | 8.8% | 14.8% | 3.4% | 4.25 | 4.44 | +0.0 |
| 2027 | 33 | MLB | ARI | 39 | 0 | 41 | 173 | 44 | 13 | 5 | 0% | 1.1 | 25.5% | 7.8% | 17.8% | 2.7% | 3.71 | 3.80 | +0.4 |
| 2028 | 34 | MLB | ARI | 33 | 0 | 35 | 148 | 36 | 12 | 4 | 0% | 1.1 | 24.6% | 8.3% | 16.4% | 3.0% | 3.95 | 4.11 | +0.2 |
| 2029 | 35 | MLB | ARI | 29 | 0 | 30 | 127 | 30 | 11 | 4 | 0% | 1.0 | 23.6% | 8.8% | 14.8% | 3.4% | 4.25 | 4.44 | +0.0 |
| ▸ Career (MLB actual + context projections) | |||||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | 417 | 0 | 411 | 1728 | 443 | 144 | 42 | 0% | 1.0 | 25.6% | 8.4% | 17.3% | 2.4% | 3.77 | 3.34 | +9.9 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 203 | 0 | 200 | 840 | 215 | 70 | 20 | 0% | 1.0 | 25.6% | 8.4% | 17.3% | 2.4% | 3.77 | 3.34 | +4.8 | ||
| Career | — | 440 | 0 | 450 | 1860 | 515 | 157 | 41 | 0% | 1.0 | 27.7% | 8.5% | 19.2% | 2.2% | 3.20 | 3.05 | +12.4 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 196 | 0 | 200 | 827 | 229 | 70 | 18 | 0% | 1.0 | 27.7% | 8.5% | 19.2% | 2.2% | 3.20 | 3.05 | +5.5 | ||
Career Path Comps
What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection
| Profile at Match Age | Next 3 Yrs | Career | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Comp | Age | Role | FIP | K% | BB% | HR/BF | BABIP | FIP | K% | K-BB% | IP | ΔFIP | Low FIP | IP | Match |
| Kevin Ginkel (OGILVIE) | — | — | 3.53 | 26.3% | 7.6% | 2.4% | — | 4.10 | 24.7% | 16.4% | 116 | +0.57 | — | — | — |
| Ross Ohlendorf R 2026 · 3.26 FIP | 32 | SU | 3.26 | 23.7% | 7.2% | 2.3% | .342 | 4.99 | 23.4% | 12.7% | 66 | +1.73 | 3.26 | 122 | 77 |
| Santiago Casilla R 2029 · 3.51 FIP | 35 | SU | 3.51 | 25.4% | 8.6% | 2.7% | .290 | 3.93 | 22.4% | 12.7% | 161 | +0.42 | 3.51 | 219 | 77 |
| Chad Gaudin R 2027 · 2.66 FIP | 33 | SU | 2.66 | 22.8% | 6.8% | 1.1% | .325 | 3.46 | 21.8% | 13.9% | 58 | +0.80 | 2.02 | 102 | 76 |
| Jonathan Broxton R 2026 · 3.66 FIP | 32 | SU | 3.66 | 22.0% | 7.3% | 2.7% | .256 | 4.24 | 20.5% | 9.0% | 16 | +0.58 | 3.57 | 137 | 75 |
| Ryan Madson R 2028 · 2.97 FIP | 34 | SU | 2.97 | 23.4% | 5.2% | 2.2% | .244 | 2.98 | 23.9% | 18.7% | 176 | +0.01 | 1.42 | 240 | 74 |
| Pedro Strop R 2026 · 3.03 FIP | 32 | SU | 3.03 | 26.0% | 10.0% | 1.6% | .263 | 3.35 | 25.3% | 16.4% | 101 | +0.32 | 2.48 | 277 | 74 |
| Daniel Bard R 2029 · 2.70 FIP | 35 | SU | 2.70 | 25.5% | 7.5% | 1.5% | .290 | 3.50 | 25.3% | 12.0% | 175 | +0.80 | 2.48 | 200 | 73 |
| Arcenio Leon R 2026 · 3.43 FIP | 32 | SU | 3.43 | 21.4% | 8.1% | 2.0% | .314 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.03 | 115 | 73 |
| Ryan Cook R 2025 · 4.04 FIP | 31 | SU | 4.04 | 25.1% | 10.8% | 3.1% | .280 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.04 | 102 | 73 |
| Mark Serrano R 2025 · 3.76 FIP | 31 | SU | 3.76 | 21.9% | 6.4% | 3.1% | .240 | 5.21 | 20.2% | 12.3% | 42 | +1.45 | 3.03 | 120 | 72 |
| Blake Wood R 2025 · 3.52 FIP | 31 | SU | 3.52 | 25.3% | 9.3% | 2.5% | .364 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.05 | 210 | 72 |
| Mark Lowe R 2026 · 2.37 FIP | 32 | SU | 2.37 | 28.4% | 5.1% | 1.9% | .302 | 5.17 | 19.2% | 9.9% | 98 | +2.80 | 2.37 | 153 | 72 |
| Josh Fields R 2026 · 3.62 FIP | 32 | SU | 3.62 | 21.4% | 6.5% | 2.8% | .224 | 7.57 | 18.9% | 9.5% | 25 | +3.95 | 1.86 | 238 | 72 |
| Wade Davis R 2026 · 3.13 FIP | 32 | SU | 3.13 | 29.9% | 10.0% | 2.4% | .235 | 4.87 | 20.2% | 8.1% | 85 | +1.74 | 2.00 | 320 | 72 |
| Chris Hatcher R 2026 · 4.20 FIP | 32 | SU | 4.20 | 24.5% | 7.4% | 4.1% | .291 | 5.21 | 18.0% | 8.4% | 36 | +1.01 | 3.05 | 176 | 72 |
| Fernando Nieve R 2027 · 4.17 FIP | 33 | SU | 4.17 | 22.0% | 10.5% | 2.9% | .290 | 2.37 | 26.9% | 22.6% | 89 | -1.80 | 2.08 | 112 | 72 |
| Hirokazu Sawamura R 2027 · 4.40 FIP | 33 | SU | 4.40 | 26.2% | 11.2% | 3.8% | .263 | 3.99 | 18.1% | 6.8% | 51 | -0.41 | 3.99 | 104 | 71 |
| Adrian Ramirez R 2025 · 3.86 FIP | 31 | SU | 3.86 | 21.7% | 6.3% | 3.3% | .327 | — | — | — | — | — | 2.96 | 137 | 71 |
| Javy Guerra R 2026 · 2.95 FIP | 32 | SU | 2.95 | 23.0% | 5.9% | 1.9% | .311 | 4.03 | 19.7% | 13.8% | 83 | +1.08 | 2.95 | 260 | 71 |
| Mike Broadway R 2025 · 4.56 FIP | 31 | SU | 4.56 | 23.0% | 10.6% | 3.7% | .282 | — | — | — | — | — | 1.74 | 195 | 70 |
Career Comps
Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 327 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).
| Player | Yrs | IP/yr | K% | BB% | HR/9 | ERA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION | 4 | 41 | 25.1% | 8.1% | 1.10 | 3.84 |
| Zach McAllister ('18) | 4 | 57 | 24.8% | 7.9% | 1.14 | 3.63 |
| David Hernandez ('19) | 5 | 54 | 25.0% | 7.9% | 1.14 | 4.10 |
| Kelvin Herrera ('19) | 5 | 59 | 23.8% | 7.3% | 1.03 | 3.58 |
| Noé Ramirez ('22) | 5 | 52 | 24.8% | 9.0% | 1.33 | 4.19 |
| Héctor Rondón ('20) | 6 | 53 | 25.3% | 7.1% | 1.19 | 3.48 |
| Sam Hentges ('24) | 4 | 52 | 25.4% | 8.4% | 0.78 | 4.18 |