Alex Faedo

P Salt Lake Bees

Age 31 RHP 6'6" / 225 lbs AAA

Overview

AAARP

Year	Age	Lvl / Team	G	GS	IP	ERA	FIP	K%	BB%	WAR	MLE rates
2024	28	MIX2 levels	40	7	60	3.58	4.67	22.4%	12.2%	-0.1	K 22.4% · BB 11.4% · FIP 4.75
2025	29	MIX2 levels	6	1	8	4.32	4.90	21.6%	16.2%	—	K 21.6% · BB 16.2% · FIP 4.81
2026	30	MIX2 levels	21	2	26	3.76	4.13	21.1%	10.5%	—	K 18.0% · BB 9.9% · FIP 3.50
2027PROJ	31	MLBLAA	10	10	58	4.48	4.71	21.2%	11.2%	0.1
2028PROJ37% MLB	32	MLBLAA	3	3	20	4.77	4.96	20.4%	11.6%	-0.0
2029PROJ55% MLB	33	MLBLAA	4	4	27	5.05	5.24	19.5%	12.1%	-0.1

Last 3 seasons WAR -0.1 · Next 3 projected WAR 0.0Projected rows: MLB playing time only, park and league context applied.

Contract

No contract data on file.

Skills · percentileStatcast 2024

Whiff%87

K%51

FB Velo43

xwOBA vs37

CompsElian Leyva (age 30) · Robert Stock (age 31) · Edgar Alberto Garcia (age 29)

2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONrates below = full-season projection

showingPROJ

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 120112vR 104

ERA4.48

FIP4.71

K%21.2%

BB%11.2%

K-BB%10.0%

Proj IP58

Value2027 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 58 IP

Grades · Statcast · Arsenal · Contract

Scouting Grades

STUF6060

CTRL3535

CMD4040

K†5050

Statcast Percentiles

FB Velo

p4394.0

Whiff%

p8731.1%

p5122.4%

xwOBA vs

p370.327

SL+3.4 (40%)

SI (5%)

CH-2.6 (20%)

FB-2.9 (40%)

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2027 so far)
2018	22	MIX MLE	2 levels	24	24	121	500	110	35	18	100%	5.0	17.4%	7.8%	9.6%	3.8%	4.02	4.72	—
2018	22	MIX RAW	2 levels	24	24	121	500	110	35	18	100%	5.0	22.0%	7.0%	15.0%	3.6%	4.02	4.08	—
2019	23	AA MLE	Erie SeaWolves	22	22	115	473	134	25	17	100%	5.2	22.9%	5.8%	17.1%	3.3%	3.90	3.73	—
2019	23	AA RAW	Erie SeaWolves	22	22	115	473	134	25	17	100%	5.2	28.3%	5.3%	23.0%	3.6%	3.90	3.34	—
2022	26	MIX MLE	3 levels	16	14	69	304	64	28	7	88%	4.3	18.0%	10.2%	7.8%	3.0%	4.67	4.52	+0.3
2022	26	MIX RAW	3 levels	16	14	69	304	64	28	7	88%	4.3	21.1%	9.2%	11.8%	2.3%	4.67	3.78	+0.9
2023	27	MIX MLE	3 levels	23	20	96	387	96	27	17	87%	4.2	23.0%	7.0%	16.0%	4.8%	4.20	4.67	+0.3
2023	27	MIX RAW	3 levels	23	20	96	387	96	27	17	87%	4.2	24.8%	7.0%	17.8%	4.4%	4.20	4.24	+0.7
2024	28	MIX MLE	2 levels	40	7	60	263	59	32	9	18%	1.5	22.4%	11.4%	11.0%	3.8%	3.58	4.75	-0.1
2024	28	MIX MLE	2 levels	40	7	60	263	59	32	9	18%	1.5	22.4%	11.4%	11.0%	3.8%	3.58	4.75	-0.1
2024	28	MIX RAW	2 levels	40	7	60	263	59	32	9	18%	1.5	22.4%	12.2%	10.3%	3.4%	3.58	4.67	-0.1
2025	29	MIX MLE	2 levels	6	1	8	37	8	6	1	17%	1.4	21.6%	16.2%	5.4%	2.7%	4.32	4.81	—
2025	29	MIX MLE	2 levels	6	1	8	37	8	6	1	17%	1.4	21.6%	16.2%	5.4%	2.7%	4.32	4.81	—
2025	29	MIX RAW	2 levels	6	1	8	37	8	6	1	17%	1.4	21.6%	16.2%	5.4%	2.7%	4.32	4.90	—
2026	30	MIX MLE	2 levels	21	2	26	114	24	12	3	10%	1.3	18.0%	9.9%	8.1%	1.2%	3.76	3.50	—
2026	30	MIX MLE	2 levels	21	2	26	114	24	12	3	10%	1.3	18.0%	9.9%	8.1%	1.2%	3.76	3.50	—
2026	30	MIX RAW	2 levels	21	2	26	114	24	12	3	10%	1.3	21.1%	10.5%	10.5%	2.6%	3.76	4.13	—
▸ Career totals (raw MLB only — as recorded)
MLB Career	—			64	30	176	752	157	73	28	47%	2.7	20.9%	9.7%	11.2%	3.7%	4.51	4.63	-0.2
▸ 2027 season — projected remainder (no 2027 stats recorded)
2027	31	MLB	LAA	10	10	58	245	52	28	7	100%	5.8	21.2%	11.2%	10.0%	2.9%	4.48	4.71	+0.1
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2028	32	MLB MLE	LAA	9	9	53	225	46	26	7	100%	5.9	20.4%	11.6%	8.8%	3.2%	4.77	4.96	-0.0
2029	33	MLB MLE	LAA	8	8	49	206	40	25	7	100%	6.1	19.5%	12.1%	7.4%	3.4%	5.05	5.24	-0.2
2030	34	MLB MLE	LAA	7	7	44	188	35	24	7	100%	6.4	18.6%	12.6%	6.0%	3.7%	5.35	5.55	-0.3
2028	32	MLB CTX	LAA	3	3	20	84	17	10	3	100%	6.7	20.4%	11.6%	8.8%	3.2%	4.77	4.96	-0.0
2029	33	MLB CTX	LAA	4	4	27	114	22	14	4	100%	6.8	19.5%	12.1%	7.4%	3.4%	5.05	5.24	-0.1
2030	34	MLB CTX	LAA	4	4	23	97	18	12	4	100%	5.8	18.6%	12.6%	6.0%	3.7%	5.35	5.55	-0.2
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		76	42	245	1044	214	108	38	55%	3.2	20.5%	10.4%	10.1%	3.6%	4.67	4.69	+0.6
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		62	34	200	853	175	88	31	55%	3.2	20.5%	10.4%	10.1%	3.6%	4.67	4.69	+0.5
Career	—	MLE		152	90	497	2078	427	172	75	59%	3.3	20.5%	8.3%	12.3%	3.6%	4.06	4.39	-0.0
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		61	36	200	836	172	69	30	59%	3.3	20.5%	8.3%	12.3%	3.6%	4.06	4.39	-0.0

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Alex Faedo (OGILVIE)	—	—	4.71	21.2%	11.2%	2.9%	—	5.23	19.6%	7.5%	147	+0.52	—	—	—
Elian Leyva R 2019 · 4.30 FIP	30	SP-	4.30	17.0%	8.5%	2.9%	.323	—	—	—	—	—	3.10	158	76
Robert Stock R 2021 · 4.18 FIP	31	SW	4.18	23.0%	8.5%	3.5%	.301	7.20	14.3%	0.1%	23	+3.02	2.74	378	70
Edgar Alberto Garcia R 2017 · 4.01 FIP	29	SP-	4.01	17.3%	10.9%	1.8%	.305	—	—	—	—	—	4.01	272	70
Yoanner Negrin R 2015 · 3.79 FIP	31	SW	3.79	15.1%	7.5%	1.9%	.256	3.29	15.0%	8.5%	270	-0.50	3.15	485	67
Josh A. Smith R 2019 · 4.65 FIP	31	SW	4.65	20.8%	6.4%	4.5%	.341	3.67	17.4%	8.6%	59	-0.98	2.91	598	66
Scott Copeland R 2019 · 5.62 FIP	31	SP-	5.62	17.1%	12.4%	4.4%	.311	—	—	—	—	—	3.55	569	66
Mike Burns R 2009 · 4.90 FIP	31	SP-	4.90	17.2%	6.6%	4.4%	.307	—	—	—	—	—	3.10	104	65
Paolo Espino R 2018 · 4.51 FIP	31	SW	4.51	18.7%	9.6%	3.2%	.348	4.42	20.4%	14.7%	202	-0.09	3.42	933	65
Derek Eitel R 2017 · 4.72 FIP	29	SP-	4.72	17.2%	16.0%	1.9%	.273	—	—	—	—	—	3.96	138	65
Jared Fernandez R 2003 · 3.57 FIP	31	SP-	3.57	11.8%	6.2%	1.2%	.269	—	—	—	—	—	3.57	101	64
Angel Sánchez R 2023 · 4.90 FIP	33	SW	4.90	19.0%	10.5%	3.8%	.333	3.77	11.8%	6.8%	27	-1.13	3.77	284	64
Jose A. Flores R 2018 · 4.77 FIP	29	SP-	4.77	13.7%	10.3%	2.8%	.350	—	—	—	—	—	2.94	237	64
Luke Hudson R 2006 · 3.81 FIP	29	SP-	3.81	14.5%	8.4%	1.6%	.307	—	—	—	—	—	3.81	235	64
Todd Redmond R 2015 · 3.86 FIP	30	SW	3.86	15.4%	7.1%	2.1%	.311	—	—	—	—	—	3.21	247	64
Hisashi Iwakuma R 2012 · 4.28 FIP	31	SP-	4.28	19.5%	7.7%	3.4%	.277	3.45	21.5%	17.8%	528	-0.83	3.19	884	64
Jorge Martinez R 2016 · 3.53 FIP	31	SP-	3.53	12.9%	5.3%	1.6%	.266	3.71	16.5%	11.5%	154	+0.18	3.53	214	64
Samuel Deduno R 2014 · 3.92 FIP	31	SW	3.92	18.7%	9.9%	2.1%	.287	3.84	19.8%	12.3%	39	-0.08	2.99	327	64
Wes Obermueller R 2007 · 4.83 FIP	30	SW	4.83	12.6%	11.2%	2.5%	.317	—	—	—	—	—	4.72	308	63
Murphy Smith R 2018 · 4.57 FIP	30	SW	4.57	13.6%	9.3%	2.6%	.273	—	—	—	—	—	3.16	300	63
Luke Farrell R 2022 · 4.87 FIP	31	SP-	4.87	17.8%	11.0%	3.4%	.289	4.85	17.3%	7.9%	55	-0.02	3.69	584	62

Career Comps

Completed MLB careers (no pro action in 2+ yrs) whose totals — actual + projected — most resemble this player's. Pool: 1,474 reliever careers (754 from 1990-2025 + 720 historical, 1901-2023), also matched on career-to-date at the same age. * Historical (Lahman) careers: rates era-adjusted to 2001-24 league levels; WAR is an OGILVIE proxy.

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	1.9	54	20.4%	10.9%	1.35	4.71
Josias Manzanillo ('04)	1.7	57	20.0%	10.2%	1.21	4.71
Bill Wilson ('69-'73, -0 WAR*)	1.3	52	20.3%*	11.5%*	1.13*	4.84*
Daryl Patterson ('68-'74, -1 WAR*)	1.2	46	18.3%*	11.2%*	1.27*	5.03*
Sam Long ('25)	1.1	42	19.5%	9.7%	1.28	4.65
Drew VerHagen ('23)	1.4	47	19.1%	9.4%	1.37	4.98
Bill Pleis ('61-'66, -0 WAR*)	1.4	56	19.7%*	9.8%*	1.15*	4.53*